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Coherence of output gaps in the euro area: The impact of the COVID-19 shock 欧元区产出缺口的一致性:COVID-19 冲击的影响
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2023.102369

Using the measures proposed by Mink et al. (2012), we reexamine the coherence of business cycles in the euro area using a long sample period. We also analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on business cycle coherence and examine whether our measures for business cycle coherence indicate a core versus periphery within EMU. Our results suggest that business cycle coherence did not increase monotonically. The COVID-19 pandemic made that the signs of the output gaps of euro area countries became more similar, but we find large differences in the amplitude of the output gaps across countries.

利用 Mink 等人(2012 年)提出的测量方法,我们使用长样本期重新审视了欧元区商业周期的一致性。我们还分析了 COVID-19 大流行病对商业周期一致性的影响,并研究了我们的商业周期一致性指标是否表明欧洲货币联盟内部存在核心与外围之分。我们的研究结果表明,商业周期一致性并非单调增长。COVID-19 大流行使欧元区各国产出缺口的符号变得更加相似,但我们发现各国产出缺口的振幅存在巨大差异。
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引用次数: 0
An experiment on donations, personal stories, and bad luck 一个关于捐款、个人故事和坏运气的实验
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2023.102381

We conducted two fundraising experiments to study the effects (1) of compassion towards the beneficiary, and (2) of giving participants an opportunity to attribute small donations to luck. We find that exposing the participants to a plea to help the beneficiary increases the average donation. Giving participants an opportunity to attribute small donations to luck decreases the average donation. We find that in our setting, the latter effect dominates.

我们进行了两次筹款实验,以研究(1)对受益人的同情和(2)让参与者有机会将小额捐款归因于运气的影响。我们发现,向参与者发出帮助受益人的呼吁会增加平均捐款额。让参与者有机会将小额捐款归因于运气,则会降低平均捐款额。我们发现,在我们的环境中,后一种效应占主导地位。
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引用次数: 0
More is not always better. Effect of educational expenditures on education quality and social mobility in Switzerland 越多越好。瑞士教育支出对教育质量和社会流动性的影响
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2023.102407

Over the past 20 years, per-student spending on compulsory education in Switzerland has risen by 52 percent in real terms. However, per-pupil expenditures vary significantly across cantons. The question quickly arises whether “more is always better”. Switzerland lends itself to this analysis because spending authority lies with the cantons and thus provides a good setting for a within-country analysis. We use a new comprehensive dataset to measure educational quality and mobility at the individual level. Our analysis shows that higher cantonal spending does not increase educational quality or mobility. The allocation of education spending seems to be more important than its mere amount. For example, our study suggests a better linguistic integration of foreign-speaking students.

过去 20 年间,瑞士义务教育的生均支出实际增长了 52%。然而,各州的生均支出差异很大。人们很快就会提出 "越多越好 "的问题。瑞士适合进行这种分析,因为支出权在各州,因此为国内分析提供了一个良好的环境。我们使用一个新的综合数据集来衡量个人层面的教育质量和流动性。我们的分析表明,各州增加教育支出并不会提高教育质量或流动性。教育经费的分配似乎比单纯的数额更重要。例如,我们的研究表明,讲外语的学生可以更好地融入语言环境。
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引用次数: 0
The transition of education a cross-country macro analysis 教育转型的跨国宏观分析
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2023.102362

In cross-country data, income and key education variables are strongly correlated. This is mainly due to the long-run transition from traditional to modern society. The paper looks at a flow and a stock variable. The flow is the E-share of GDP for the annual public budget for education. When it is adjusted for the number of school-age children, it becomes the EC-share. The stock is School, which is the number of years the average person has been in school. Both variables are due to demand and supply. People and firms demand human capital needed by production. Governments supply education to increase production. The demand factor works better to explain the strong correlation. Countries with too much or too little education are identified by the deviations from the transition curves for education. Neither deviation has a clear impact on the growth rate. The explanation proposed uses the equilibrium properties of the transition path, where too much education is of no use, while too little is compensated by the private sector.

在跨国数据中,收入和主要教育变量密切相关。这主要是由于从传统社会向现代社会的长期过渡。本文研究了一个流量变量和一个存量变量。流量是年度公共教育预算占 GDP 的 E 份额。在根据学龄儿童人数进行调整后,就变成了 "EC-share"。存量变量是学校,即平均每人的在校年数。这两个变量都是供求关系造成的。人们和企业需要生产所需的人力资本。政府提供教育以提高产量。需求因素能更好地解释这种强相关性。教育过多或过少的国家是通过教育过渡曲线的偏差来确定的。这两种偏离都不会对增长率产生明显影响。所提出的解释利用了过渡路径的均衡特性,即过多的教育没有用处,而过少的教育则由私营部门弥补。
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引用次数: 0
A gate to the world for all? The reaction of neighborhoods in Hamburg to refugee housing 为所有人打开通往世界的大门?汉堡居民区对难民住房的反应
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2023.102455

This paper analyzes the political reaction of residents to refugee housing in their neighborhood. The city of Hamburg, Germany, experienced between 2014 and 2017 large refugee inflows that required many new accommodations. Openings of refugee houses led to an increase of 0.9 percentage points in the vote share of right-wing anti-immigrant parties in a neighborhood. The negative reaction applies to reception centers and follow-up accommodations with different inhabitant compositions. It persisted longer for large houses and was stronger for multiple openings and in areas with worse economic conditions and many foreigners and migrants. The right-wing gains came with losses for the governing party. A matching estimation that accounts for an unbalanced distribution of houses across neighborhoods confirms the negative reaction. Voting gains around accommodations explain only a small part of the electoral success of right-wing parties, but the findings suggest giving more attention to the distribution and housing of refugees.

本文分析了附近居民对难民住房的政治反应。德国汉堡市在2014年至2017年间经历了大量难民涌入,需要许多新的住所。难民收容所的开设导致右翼反移民政党在社区中的得票率增加了0.9个百分点。这种负面反应适用于接待中心和不同居民构成的后续住所。对于大房子来说,负面反应持续时间更长,对于多次开放以及经济条件较差、外国人和移民较多的地区来说,负面反应更为强烈。右翼的得益伴随着执政党的失利。考虑到各社区房屋分布不平衡的匹配估计证实了这种负面反应。在住宿方面的投票收益只能解释右翼政党选举成功的一小部分原因,但研究结果表明,应更多地关注难民的分配和住房问题。
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引用次数: 0
Bread and the dilemmas of socialist paternalism in Israel, 1948–1977 1948-1977年,面包与以色列社会主义家长制的困境
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2023.102366

This is the first study of bread regulation in a post-World War II democratic country. Under Israel's Labor Socialist regime, bread was mostly privately supplied. In setting prices, policymakers faced tradeoffs between producer profits/viability of small-scale producers and consumer welfare, and between producer profits and minimizing inflation and real appreciation. Subsidization entailed a tradeoff between producer profits and consumer welfare on one hand, and fiscal responsibility and exchange rate unification on the other hand. We study the regulatory changes that took place as the industry structure evolved, and document the changes that occurred in the revealed weights of producer profits, consumer welfare, fiscal responsibility and exchange rate unification. Over 1952–1977, regulatory reforms accelerated the process of technologically-based rationalization, and policy was strongly pro-consumer. This process did not unfold smoothly: Regulatory changes occurred in four phases, with (sometimes) sharp fluctuations in consumer welfare, producer profits, fiscal policy and exchange rate policy.

这是首次对二战后民主国家的面包管理进行研究。在以色列劳动社会主义制度下,面包主要由私人供应。在制定价格时,决策者要在生产者利润/小规模生产者的生存能力与消费者福利之间,以及在生产者利润与尽量减少通货膨胀和实际升值之间进行权衡。补贴一方面需要在生产者利润和消费者福利之间进行权衡,另一方面需要在财政责任和汇率统一之间进行权衡。我们研究了随着产业结构演变而发生的监管变化,并记录了生产者利润、消费者福利、财政责任和汇率统一的显性权重所发生的变化。在 1952-1977 年间,监管改革加速了以技术为基础的合理化进程,政策大力扶持消费者。这一过程并非一帆风顺:监管改革分为四个阶段,消费者福利、生产者利润、财政政策和汇率政策(有时)出现剧烈波动。
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引用次数: 0
Pro-growth inefficiency: Rents and moral hazard in infrastructure contests in China 支持增长的低效率:中国基础设施竞赛中的租金和道德风险
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2023.102397

We study contests for promotion of local government leaders orchestrated by the central government in China. The contests rewarded regional economic success. The probability of promotion increased with regional infrastructure investment but we find negative returns from infrastructure. We find feedback between corruption and investment in infrastructure. There was moral hazard – successful local government leaders who were promoted to higher level positions in the government and Party hierarchical structure left behind regional local governments mired in debt or bankruptcy because of debt financing of infrastructure investment that was used to win the center-orchestrated contests. Our study makes a contribution to contest theory by providing an empirical study for rent-seeking contests.

我们研究了中国中央政府策划的地方政府领导人晋升竞赛。这些竞赛奖励地区经济的成功。晋升的概率随着地区基础设施投资的增加而增加,但我们发现基础设施的回报是负的。我们发现腐败与基础设施投资之间存在反馈。这其中存在道德风险--成功的地方政府领导人被提拔到政府和党内更高层次的职位上,但留下的地区地方政府却深陷债务或破产的泥潭,因为他们利用基础设施投资的债务融资赢得了中央政府策划的竞赛。我们的研究通过对寻租竞争的实证研究,为竞争理论做出了贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Leader characteristics and constitutional compliance 领导人的特点与遵守宪法
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2023.102423

While research in constitutional economics has made important progress in recent decades, the factors determining whether a constitution is complied with have only received scant attention. We contribute to that narrow literature by studying how personal traits of political leaders are associated with constitutional compliance. Compliance levels of 943 political leaders between 1950 and 2010 can be explained by their education, entry into office, political experience, military background, and whether they are members of extreme left-wing parties. Specifically, under former military officers and Communist leaders, constitutional compliance is significantly lower. The combined effect of these two traits corresponds to the difference between democracy and nondemocracy. This implies a difficult normative question, which we discuss in our conclusion: Should constitutions set entry barriers for high political offices that are based on leader characteristics?

近几十年来,宪法经济学研究取得了重要进展,但决定宪法是否得到遵守的因素却鲜有人关注。我们通过研究政治领导人的个人特质与宪法遵守的关系,为这一狭隘的文献做出了贡献。1950 年至 2010 年间,943 位政治领导人的宪法遵守水平可以用他们的教育程度、就职经历、政治经验、军事背景以及是否属于极左翼政党来解释。具体而言,前军官和共产党领导人的宪法遵从度明显较低。这两种特征的综合影响相当于民主与非民主之间的差异。这意味着一个棘手的规范性问题,我们将在结论中讨论这个问题:宪法是否应该根据领导人的特征为高级政治职位设置准入门槛?
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引用次数: 0
Philanthropy as politics: The precolonial Georgia project for a new start in life for England's poor 慈善与政治:殖民前的格鲁吉亚项目为英国穷人的生活开辟了新的开端
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2023.102429

A fully-funded philanthropic economic project in precolonial Georgia was proclaimed as providing a new start in life for England's poor. The project has been praised for altruism and for being socially progressive through equal land assignment and prohibition of slavery. The project failed as an economic venture but was successful in providing the foundation for Georgia eventually becoming a possession of the British crown. I adopt a political-economy perspective to investigate whether the philanthropic project was a façade for political intent.

在前殖民时期的佐治亚州,一个全额资助的慈善经济项目被宣称为英国穷人生活的新起点。该项目因其利他主义以及通过平等分配土地和禁止奴隶制实现社会进步而备受赞誉。作为一项经济冒险,该项目失败了,但却成功地为格鲁吉亚最终成为英国王室的属地奠定了基础。我采用政治经济学的视角来研究该慈善项目是否是政治意图的幌子。
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引用次数: 0
The growth-inequality debate revisited by rent-seeking theory: Some empirical evidence 寻租理论重新审视了增长与不平等的争论:一些经验证据
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2023.102424

The growth/income inequality nexus is surrounded by theoretical as well as empirical ambiguities. These ambiguities can be lifted by focusing on the nature of inequalities and not their level. Inequalities may be the result of productive profit-seeking activities or unproductive rent-seeking activities. To re-assess empirically the growth/income inequality nexus, we first propose a strategy to approximate the nature of inequalities by an indicator of institutional quality. We propose an indicator of institutions' productivity which describes the prevalence of institutions favourable to the search for profit and institutions fostering the search for rents, and conversely. It is an indirect measure of the predominance of rent-seeking activities over profit-seeking ones, and conversely. Then, using a panel data covering the period 1990–2020 for 114 countries (88 developing countries and 26 developed countries) and relying on the two-way fixed effects technique to test our estimator, we show that countries where institutions' productivity is high, growth is positively related to income inequality. Conversely, growth is negatively related to income inequality in countries where institutions' productivity is low. There is thus a positive relationship between productive inequalities and growth in countries where profit-seeking institutions dominate the institutional setting. By analogy, in countries where rent-seeking institutions are dominant there is a negative relationship between unproductive inequalities and growth. Contrary to previous public policy recommendations, inequalities should not be tackled since they are pro-growth in countries with high levels of institutions’ productivity.

增长与收入不平等之间的关系在理论和经验上都存在模糊之处。通过关注不平等的性质而非程度,可以消除这些模糊之处。不平等可能是生产性逐利活动或非生产性寻租活动的结果。为了从经验上重新评估增长与收入不平等之间的关系,我们首先提出了一种策略,即通过制度质量指标来近似分析不平等的性质。我们提出了一个制度生产率指标,该指标描述了有利于追求利润的制度和有利于追求租金的制度的普遍性,反之亦然。该指标间接衡量了寻租活动相对于寻利活动的优势,反之亦然。然后,我们使用 114 个国家(88 个发展中国家和 26 个发达国家)1990-2020 年的面板数据,并依靠双向固定效应技术来检验我们的估计方法,结果表明,在制度生产率高的国家,增长与收入不平等正相关。相反,在机构生产率低的国家,经济增长与收入不平等呈负相关。因此,在追求利润的体制占主导地位的国家,生产性不平等与经济增长之间存在正相关关系。以此类推,在寻租型体制占主导地位的国家,非生产性不平等与经济增长之间存在负相关关系。与以往的公共政策建议相反,在机构生产力水平高的国家,不平等现象有利于经济增长,因此不应加以解决。
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引用次数: 0
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European Journal of Political Economy
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