European Journal of Political Economy最新文献

英文中文

Friend-shoring, near-shoring, and reshoring in factories America, Asia, and Europe amid rising geopolitical tensions 在地缘政治紧张局势不断加剧的情况下，美国、亚洲和欧洲的工厂在“朋友支持”、“近岸支持”和“回流支持”

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102804

Mitsuyo Ando , Kazunobu Hayakawa , Fukunari Kimura , Hiroshi Mukunoki

This study empirically investigates changes in sourcing patterns across three major production hubs: Factory America, Factory Asia, and Factory Europe. Specifically, using international and intra-national trade data from 2015 to 2024, we examine four types of “shoring” strategies, i.e., political friend-shoring, economic friend-shoring, near-shoring, and reshoring, simultaneously. Our findings provide quantitative evidence of increasing reliance on political friend-shoring, weakening dependence on near-shoring, and recent progress in reshoring amid heightened geopolitical risks, whereas economic friend-shoring appears unattractive on average. Moreover, we show that greater product substitutability does not necessarily lead to more significant changes in sourcing. We also revealed a notable difference across regions in political friend-shoring. The degree of its dependence is consistently most substantial for Factory America, while political motivations remain relatively unattractive for Factory Asia, with some specific variations even within the same Factory.

本研究实证调查了三个主要生产中心的采购模式变化：美国工厂、亚洲工厂和欧洲工厂。具体而言，我们使用2015年至2024年的国际和国内贸易数据，同时研究了四种类型的“支持”策略，即政治支持、经济支持、近支持和回流。我们的研究结果提供了定量证据，表明在地缘政治风险加剧的情况下，人们越来越依赖政治上的朋友支持，对近岸支持的依赖减弱，以及最近在回流方面取得的进展，而经济上的朋友支持平均而言似乎没有吸引力。此外，我们还表明，更大的产品可替代性并不一定会导致采购方面更大的变化。我们还发现，不同地区在政治朋友支持方面存在显著差异。对美国工厂的依赖程度一直是最大的，而政治动机对亚洲工厂来说仍然相对没有吸引力，甚至在同一工厂内部也有一些具体的变化。

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引用次数: 0

Political budget cycles in federal systems: The case of India 联邦制度下的政治预算周期：以印度为例

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2026.102811

Sourav Das , Patrick Hufschmidt , Fabian Mankat , Konstantinos Theocharopoulos

This paper examines Political Budget Cycles in federal systems, focusing on how a central incumbent allocates discretionary transfers across states in response to electoral incentives. We develop a theoretical model predicting that average discretionary transfers increase during federal election periods. While swing states consistently receive higher transfers due to their electoral competitiveness, the election-period increase is larger for non-swing states. This occurs because non-swing states are targeted primarily during federal elections: allocating transfers to them in state elections is not advantageous for the federal incumbent, as it has little effect on the probability of winning those state elections. To test these predictions, we compile a panel dataset of Indian states from 2006 to 2022. Using fixed effects specifications, we find evidence consistent with the theoretical model: discretionary transfers are significantly higher in federal election periods, swing states receive more discretionary transfers in non-election periods, and the election-period increase in discretionary transfers is more pronounced for non-swing states.

本文考察了联邦制度中的政治预算周期，重点关注中央现任者如何根据选举激励在各州之间分配自由裁量转移。我们建立了一个理论模型，预测在联邦选举期间平均自由裁量转移增加。摇摆州由于其选举竞争力而一直获得较高的转移支付，而非摇摆州在选举期间的增加幅度更大。这是因为非摇摆州主要是在联邦选举期间的目标：在州选举中向这些州分配资金对联邦现任总统不利，因为它对赢得这些州选举的可能性几乎没有影响。为了验证这些预测，我们编制了2006年至2022年印度各邦的面板数据集。使用固定效应规范，我们发现了与理论模型一致的证据：自由裁量转移在联邦选举期间显著更高，摇摆州在非选举期间获得更多的自由裁量转移，而非摇摆州在选举期间的自由裁量转移增加更为明显。

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引用次数: 0

Media narratives and public attitudes toward immigrants and muslims: Evidence from the charlie hebdo attack 媒体叙述和公众对移民和穆斯林的态度：来自查理周刊袭击的证据

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2026.102812

Mamadou Sacko

This paper examines the impact of the Charlie Hebdo attack on public attitudes toward Muslims and immigrants in Europe. Using the Unexpected Event During Survey Design methodology, we exploit the random timing of interviews in the European Social Survey to estimate causal effects. Our empirical strategy combines an event study design with region fixed effects, various matching approaches, and advanced machine learning estimators.

We find a significant but short-lived decline in positive attitudes toward immigrants and Muslims, concentrated in the first week after the attack and fading quickly thereafter. Yet, responses varied across countries: while attitudes deteriorated in the Czech Republic and Ireland, they remained stable or even improved in France and Germany.

To contextualize these heterogeneous reactions, we analyze contemporaneous media coverage of the attack in the four countries. Using Natural Language Processing tools, large language models and structural topic modeling, we examine media salience and framing as an indirect measure of public sentiment. The evidence shows that in countries with predominantly negative coverage (Czech Republic, Ireland), public attitudes shifted unfavorably, whereas in France and Germany, where narratives were more balanced or supportive, attitudes were more resilient. These findings highlight how terrorist violence can shape public opinion in the short run, while also highlighting the importance of media narratives as a mirror and amplifier of societal reactions.

本文考察了《查理周刊》袭击事件对欧洲公众对穆斯林和移民态度的影响。使用调查设计中的意外事件方法，我们利用欧洲社会调查中的随机访谈时间来估计因果关系。我们的经验策略结合了具有区域固定效应的事件研究设计、各种匹配方法和先进的机器学习估计器。我们发现，对移民和穆斯林的积极态度出现了显著但短暂的下降，主要集中在袭击发生后的第一周，此后迅速消退。然而，各国的反应各不相同：虽然捷克共和国和爱尔兰的态度恶化，但法国和德国的态度保持稳定，甚至有所改善。为了将这些异质反应置于背景之下，我们分析了这四个国家对袭击的同期媒体报道。使用自然语言处理工具、大型语言模型和结构主题建模，我们研究了媒体显著性和框架作为公众情绪的间接衡量标准。证据表明，在负面报道占主导地位的国家（捷克共和国、爱尔兰），公众的态度发生了不利的转变，而在叙事更为平衡或支持的法国和德国，态度更有弹性。这些发现强调了恐怖主义暴力如何在短期内塑造公众舆论，同时也强调了媒体叙事作为社会反应的镜子和放大器的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Land invasions and contemporary slavery 土地入侵和当代奴隶制

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2026.102807

Gabriel Cepaluni , Jamil Civitarese , Michael T. Dorsch

Do landless social movements reduce labor coercion? We examine this question using a panel dataset on contemporary slavery and land invasions in Brazil from 1995 to 2013. On average, a single land invasion reduces the number of enslaved workers by 15–20% in a municipality-year. To ground the empirics, we develop a formal model of how invasions alter landowners’ incentives to employ coerced labor. We further show that invasions do not increase the likelihood of government audits, indicating that their impact works directly through liberation and deterrence rather than expanded enforcement. The effect is strongest in Brazil’s Northeast, a large, poor, and rural region. These findings demonstrate how civil society action can complement weak state capacity in enforcing basic labor rights.

无地社会运动是否减少了劳动胁迫？我们使用1995年至2013年巴西当代奴隶制和土地入侵的面板数据集来研究这个问题。平均而言，一次土地入侵就能在一个市政年内减少15-20%的被奴役工人。为了巩固这些经验，我们建立了一个正式的模型，说明入侵如何改变土地所有者雇佣强迫劳动力的动机。我们进一步表明，入侵不会增加政府审计的可能性，这表明它们的影响直接通过解放和威慑而不是扩大执法来发挥作用。这种影响在巴西东北部最为明显，这是一个面积大、贫穷的农村地区。这些发现表明，公民社会行动可以弥补国家在执行基本劳工权利方面能力薄弱的不足。

引用次数: 0

Decomposing migration drivers: Push-pull effects of political, financial, and socioeconomic institutions versus network effects in OECD migration 分解移民驱动因素：政治、金融和社会经济制度的推拉效应与经合组织移民中的网络效应

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2026.102810

Yun Wang

This paper explores the relative importance of key migration drivers and examines how institutional quality influences migration rates using a classical migration model and data from OECD countries over the period 1985–2015. Within a fixed-effects framework, we develop a novel analytical framework using comprehensive institutional quality indices constructed from the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) to capture both pushing and pulling effects. Our variance decomposition analysis reveals that network effects account for 43.73% of the total explained variance in general migration inflows, but only 11.29% for inflow workers and 2.35% for foreign students changing status. Pushing and pulling effects contribute 23.02% and 16.49%, respectively, to general migration inflows, while for inflow workers, pushing effects dominate, explaining 34.96% compared to 18.78% for pulling effects. Among foreign students changing status, these effects are more balanced, contributing 30.52% and 30.05%, respectively. A deeper analysis of institutional qualities shows that political quality dominates both pushing and pulling effects across most specifications, except for foreign students changing status, where 46.67% of the pulling-effects variance is explained by socioeconomic factors, compared to 40.68% for political factors. Additionally, geographical distance is the most significant factor in bilateral migration costs, contributing over 75% across all specifications. These findings help policymakers better understand the complex roles of networks, institutional qualities, migration costs, etc. in shaping migration patterns.

本文探讨了主要移民驱动因素的相对重要性，并利用经典移民模型和1985-2015年经合组织国家的数据研究了制度质量如何影响移民率。在固定效应框架内，我们开发了一个新的分析框架，利用国际国家风险指南（ICRG）构建的综合制度质量指数来捕捉推动效应和拉动效应。我们的方差分解分析显示，网络效应占总体移民流入解释方差的43.73%，但对流入工人和留学生身份变化的解释方差仅为11.29%和2.35%。推动效应和拉动效应对一般移民流入的贡献率分别为23.02%和16.49%，而对流入工人来说，推动效应占主导地位，占34.96%，拉动效应占18.78%。在身份转换的留学生中，这些影响更为均衡，分别占30.52%和30.05%。对制度素质的深入分析表明，政治素质在大多数规范中都主导着推动和拉动效应，除了外国学生改变身份，其中46.67%的拉动效应方差可以由社会经济因素解释，而政治因素则为40.68%。此外，地理距离是双边迁移成本中最重要的因素，在所有规格中贡献超过75%。这些发现有助于决策者更好地理解网络、制度质量、迁移成本等因素在形成迁移模式中的复杂作用。

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引用次数: 0

When does state capacity Work? Social fragmentation and public goods provision in rural Japan 国家容量什么时候起作用？日本农村的社会分裂与公共产品供给

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102795

Jiali Shen

It is widely assumed that strong state capacity improves public goods provision. Yet, most existing studies treat the state as an autonomous provider, overlooking how its effects depend on societal context. This study examines how social fragmentation conditions the relationship between state capacity and public goods provision, drawing on original data from rural Japan. The findings reveal that high state capacity enhances provision only where social fragmentation is high; in more cohesive regions, strong state intervention may disrupt informal cooperation, reducing effectiveness. This non-linear effect is robust across multiple checks and is mediated through the Japan Agricultural Cooperatives. These results highlight the conditional nature of state capacity and the importance of state–society relations in shaping public goods outcomes. The study contributes to broader debates on governance and development by demonstrating that state capacity does not operate in isolation, and its effectiveness varies with the structure of social relations.

人们普遍认为，强大的国家能力可以改善公共产品的供应。然而，大多数现有研究将国家视为自主提供者，忽视了其影响如何取决于社会背景。本研究利用日本农村地区的原始数据，考察了社会分裂如何制约国家能力与公共产品提供之间的关系。研究结果表明，只有在社会分裂程度高的地方，高国家能力才能提高供给；在凝聚力更强的地区，强有力的国家干预可能会破坏非正式合作，降低效率。这种非线性效应在多个检查中是稳健的，并通过日本农业合作社进行调解。这些结果突出了国家能力的条件性质以及国家-社会关系在形成公共产品结果方面的重要性。该研究表明，国家能力不是孤立运作的，其效力因社会关系结构而异，有助于就治理与发展问题展开更广泛的辩论。

引用次数: 0

Tax centralization, political connections, and corporate tax avoidance 税收集中、政治关系和企业避税

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102792

Yang Pan , Xihao Wu

This study investigates whether and how the tax centralization reform (TCR) affects the role of political connections in corporate tax avoidance. Using China's consolidation of the State Tax Administration (STA) and Local Tax Bureaus (LTBs) as a quasi-natural experiment, we find that TCR significantly diminishes the tax-reduction advantages traditionally afforded by political connections. More specifically, our analysis shows that the reform weakens the influence of local government political ties on corporate tax avoidance strategies. Heterogeneity analysis further reveals that the moderating effect of TCR is more pronounced in regions characterized by greater government intervention. Additional tests reveal that TCR also reduces the impact of political connections on firms' tax deviation and tax risk. Collectively, these findings highlight the institutional advantages of tax centralization in curbing politically driven tax avoidance, offering important implications for emerging markets seeking to enhance tax enforcement and governance.

本研究探讨税收集中化改革是否以及如何影响政治关系在企业避税中的作用。以中国国家税务总局（STA）和地方税务局（LTBs）合并为准自然实验，我们发现TCR显著削弱了传统上由政治关系提供的减税优势。更具体地说，我们的分析表明，改革削弱了地方政府政治关系对企业避税策略的影响。异质性分析进一步表明，在政府干预力度较大的地区，TCR的调节作用更为显著。进一步的检验表明，TCR还降低了政治关系对企业税收偏差和税收风险的影响。总的来说，这些发现突出了税收集中化在遏制政治驱动的避税方面的制度优势，为寻求加强税收执法和治理的新兴市场提供了重要启示。

引用次数: 0

Do fiscal rules undermine public investments? A review of empirical evidence 财政规则会损害公共投资吗？对经验证据的回顾

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102775

Sebastian Blesse , Luisa Dörr , Florian Dorn , Max Lay

Fiscal rules are a frequent policy measure to restrict deficit-taking among incumbent politicians. In times of increased and sustained investment needs to mitigate the consequences of climate change, and to promote the digital and structural transformation, fiscal rules have become subject to criticism for undermining public investments. We review 36 existing empirical studies examining the effect of fiscal rules on public investments. We also discuss whether more public investments typically come at the cost of higher deficits and whether the effect on public investments differs between rigid and more flexible fiscal rules. Overall, we do not find majoritarian evidence for a negative effect of fiscal rules on overall public investments. Among the papers finding a (significant) effect of fiscal rules on public investments, the number of those that estimate a negative relationship, however, surpass the ones finding a positive relationship. Rigid fiscal rules seem to deter public investments as compared to more flexible and investment-friendly rules which, by contrast, rather increase public investments. Existing evidence does not suggest that public investments come at the cost of higher public deficits in a majority of studies (except in case of flexible fiscal rules). The design of fiscal rules appears to be crucial for higher public investments.

财政规则是限制现任政客赤字的常用政策措施。在需要增加和持续投资以减轻气候变化后果并促进数字和结构转型的时代，财政规则因破坏公共投资而受到批评。我们回顾了36项现有的实证研究，以检验财政规则对公共投资的影响。我们还讨论了更多的公共投资是否通常以更高的赤字为代价，以及刚性和更灵活的财政规则对公共投资的影响是否不同。总体而言，我们没有发现多数人认为财政规则对总体公共投资有负面影响的证据。然而，在发现财政规则对公共投资（显著）影响的论文中，估计存在负相关关系的论文数量超过了发现正相关关系的论文数量。僵化的财政规则似乎阻碍了公共投资，相比之下，更灵活、更有利于投资的规则反而增加了公共投资。现有证据并不表明，在大多数研究中，公共投资是以更高的公共赤字为代价的（灵活财政规则的情况除外）。财政规则的设计似乎对增加公共投资至关重要。

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Assessing the joint risks of fiscal crises and climate change 评估财政危机和气候变化的共同风险

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102784

Jorge M. Uribe , Helena Chuliá

We empirically examine the potential trade-off between reducing vulnerability to climate change and maintaining fiscal stability. Our findings indicate that governance, as a measure of institutional quality, is the key determinant of both fiscal stability and climate change preparedness. Thus, higher levels of institutional quality result in increased preparedness for climate hazards and a lower likelihood of fiscal crises. However, our survival analysis also highlights that fiscal stability is contingent upon the interest paid on debt, rather than solely the overall debt burden. Considering these findings, international efforts to address the consequences of climate change should aim to maintain relatively constant interest payments on debt among emerging and low-income countries during their ecological transition. Our results further suggest that enhancing human habitat conditions, while considering the role of governance, is the most effective means of simultaneously reducing the likelihood of a fiscal crisis and increasing preparedness for climate hazards.

我们对降低气候变化脆弱性与维持财政稳定之间的潜在权衡进行了实证研究。我们的研究结果表明，作为衡量制度质量的一项指标，治理是财政稳定和气候变化防范的关键决定因素。因此，更高水平的制度质量会提高对气候灾害的准备，降低发生财政危机的可能性。然而，我们的生存分析还强调，财政稳定取决于债务支付的利息，而不仅仅是整体债务负担。考虑到这些发现，应对气候变化后果的国际努力应着眼于在新兴国家和低收入国家的生态转型期间保持相对稳定的债务利息支付。我们的研究结果进一步表明，在考虑治理作用的同时，改善人类栖息地条件是同时降低财政危机可能性和提高对气候灾害准备的最有效手段。

引用次数: 0

Female politicians and corruption in rural India 印度农村的女政客和腐败

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102764

Somdeep Chatterjee , Shiv Hastawala , Elisa Taveras

This paper leverages random assignment of female quotas for leadership positions on Indian village councils to assess its causal effect on corruption. Since the mid-1990s, India has mandated that at least one third of village council chief positions be randomly reserved for women. Using data from the Rural Economic and Demographic Survey (REDS) 2006, we find that an additional term reserved for a female head as opposed to just a single one reduces both the occurrence and bribe amounts paid to the local government by households. This reduction is also observed in bribes paid to other local officials suggesting downstream effects of electing female officials on corruption. As a potential mechanism, we provide speculative evidence that it takes time for women political leaders to establish and settle, and when they are able to do so, they appear more efficient and transparent, especially in terms of selecting households as beneficiaries for government programs.

本文利用印度村委会女性领导职位的随机分配来评估其对腐败的因果影响。自上世纪90年代中期以来，印度规定至少三分之一的村委会主任职位随机保留给女性。利用2006年农村经济和人口调查（REDS）的数据，我们发现，为女性户主预留一个额外的任期，而不是一个任期，既减少了家庭向地方政府支付的贿赂金额，也减少了家庭向地方政府支付的贿赂金额。在向其他地方官员行贿方面也观察到这种减少，这表明选举女性官员对腐败产生了下游效应。作为一种潜在的机制，我们提供了推测性证据，证明女性政治领导人的建立和稳定需要时间，当她们能够这样做时，她们显得更有效率和透明，特别是在选择家庭作为政府项目的受益者方面。

引用次数: 0

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