European Journal of Political Economy最新文献

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The effect of international sanctions on the size of the middle class in Iran 国际制裁对伊朗中产阶级规模的影响

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102749

Mohammad Reza Farzanegan , Nader Habibi

This study examines the impact of international economic sanctions, imposed on Iran due to its nuclear program, on the development of its middle class. Specifically, it investigates how Iran's middle class would have evolved absent sanctions post-2012. Using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) with nested optimization, we construct a counterfactual scenario for Iran based on a weighted average of comparable countries that mirror pre-2012 Iran but without significant sanctions. Our SCM results indicate that sanctions led to an average annual reduction of 17 percentage points in the size of Iran's middle class from 2012 to 2019. Our Synthetic Difference-in-Differences (SDID) analysis, however, provides a more conservative estimate of a 12 percentage points average annual loss, reinforcing the robustness of the findings. These estimates capture the total effect of sanctions, encompassing both their direct economic shocks, and Iran's policy responses. These results are validated through extensive sensitivity checks, including in-space and in-time placebo tests, leave-one-out analyses, and bias-corrected SCM. We also identify real GDP per capita, merchandise imports and exports, investment, industry value added, informal and vulnerable employment as key channels through which sanctions negatively impact the middle class.

这项研究考察了因伊朗核计划而对其实施的国际经济制裁对其中产阶级发展的影响。具体来说，它调查了2012年后如果没有制裁，伊朗的中产阶级会如何发展。使用嵌套优化的综合控制方法（SCM），我们基于2012年之前的伊朗但没有重大制裁的可比国家的加权平均值，为伊朗构建了一个反事实情景。我们的SCM结果表明，从2012年到2019年，制裁导致伊朗中产阶级的规模平均每年减少17个百分点。然而，我们的综合差异分析（SDID）提供了一个更保守的估计，即平均每年损失12个百分点，加强了研究结果的稳健性。这些估计反映了制裁的总体影响，既包括直接的经济冲击，也包括伊朗的政策反应。这些结果通过广泛的灵敏度检查得到验证，包括空间和时间上的安慰剂测试、遗漏分析和偏差校正SCM。我们还指出，实际人均GDP、商品进出口、投资、工业增加值、非正规就业和弱势就业是制裁对中产阶级产生负面影响的主要渠道。

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引用次数: 0

Dynamics of protest: Understanding violent and nonviolent protest in Africa 抗议的动力：了解非洲的暴力和非暴力抗议

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102745

Marcela Gomez-Ruiz , Paolo Li Donni , Maria Marino

This study introduces a novel empirical strategy to analyse the dynamic occurrence of violent and nonviolent protests (VP and NVP) in Africa. The strategy allows us to jointly model VP and NVP, accounting for both observed variables and unobserved time-varying factors. In doing so, we offer insights into the persistence of protest (i.e., the influence of one type of protest on the dynamics of the same type of protests over time), cross-effects between the two protest types (i.e., the influence of one type of protest on the dynamics of the other type over time), as well as protest determinants. Our findings, based on the Social Conflict Analysis Dataset (SCAD), reveal strong persistence in both VP and NVP, with past protests significantly correlating with future ones. Additionally, we show that violent and nonviolent protests are dynamically interlinked, with cross-effects between the two events. Some determinants, like repression, correlate with both VP and NVP, while others, such as education and technology, influence only one type of protest. Finally, by controlling for persistence, we explore how unobserved time-varying factors shape protest dynamics in Africa.

本研究引入了一种新的实证策略来分析非洲暴力和非暴力抗议（VP和NVP）的动态发生。该策略允许我们联合建模VP和NVP，同时考虑观察到的变量和未观察到的时变因素。在此过程中，我们对抗议的持续性（即一种抗议类型对同一类型抗议动态的影响）、两种抗议类型之间的交叉效应（即一种抗议类型对另一种抗议类型随时间的动态的影响）以及抗议决定因素提供了见解。我们的研究结果，基于社会冲突分析数据集（SCAD），揭示了VP和NVP的强持续性，过去的抗议与未来的抗议显着相关。此外，我们还表明，暴力和非暴力抗议活动是动态相互关联的，两者之间存在交叉效应。一些决定因素，如镇压，与反VP和反VP都相关，而其他决定因素，如教育和技术，只影响一种类型的抗议。最后，通过控制持久性，我们探讨了未观察到的时变因素如何影响非洲的抗议动态。

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引用次数: 0

Wealth distribution and redistributive preferences: Evidence from a randomized survey experiment 财富分配和再分配偏好：来自随机调查实验的证据

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102741

Nicolás Albacete, Pirmin Fessler, Peter Lindner

We analyze a large-scale experiment on redistributive preferences using data from the Austrian segment of the Eurosystem Household Finance and Consumption Survey. Austria, characterized by low wealth taxation but high wealth inequality, provides an ideal context. We estimate the causal effect of information about one’s wealth rank on preferences for wealth taxation. While the average treatment effect is statistically insignificant, individuals who overestimate their wealth position exhibit a positive response, whereas those who underestimate it show a negative response. The impact of information varies based on prior beliefs, yet the overall effect remains null.

我们分析了一个关于再分配偏好的大规模实验，使用来自欧元体系家庭金融和消费调查奥地利部分的数据。奥地利的特点是财富税低，但财富不平等程度高，提供了一个理想的背景。我们估计了个人财富等级信息对财富税偏好的因果效应。虽然平均治疗效果在统计上是微不足道的，但高估自己财富状况的人表现出积极的反应，而低估自己财富状况的人则表现出消极的反应。信息的影响根据先前的信念而变化，但总体效果仍然为零。

引用次数: 0

Attractiveness and preferences for redistribution in non-Western countries 非西方国家对再分配的吸引力和偏好

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102772

Henrik Jordahl , Astghik Mavisakalyan , Panu Poutvaara

This paper examines the link between physical attractiveness and individual support for income redistribution in a non-Western context. Using nationally representative survey data from the South Caucasus, we find that more attractive individuals are less supportive of redistribution, consistent with findings from Western settings. However, the negative correlation is only present among women. This gender pattern contrasts with previous studies, which have predominantly found a stronger correlation among men. Consequently, gender-specific relationships between attractiveness and redistributive preferences seem to be better explained by cultural influences than by universal claims grounded in evolutionary psychology.

本文研究了在非西方背景下，身体吸引力和个人对收入再分配的支持之间的联系。利用南高加索地区具有全国代表性的调查数据，我们发现更有吸引力的个人不太支持再分配，这与西方环境的调查结果一致。然而，负相关只存在于女性中。这种性别模式与之前的研究形成对比，之前的研究主要发现男性之间的相关性更强。因此，吸引力和再分配偏好之间的性别特定关系似乎更能通过文化影响来解释，而不是基于进化心理学的普遍说法。

引用次数: 0

Corrupt reserve prices 储备价格腐败

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102767

Sümeyra Atmaca , Koen Schoors , Elena Podkolzina

We develop a methodology to identify favoritism in public procurement auctions with reserve prices and apply it to procurement of gasoline in Russia. As reserve prices are set prior to the auction, they should be independent of the winning seller’s identity in a fair and competitive auction. A procurer-seller pair with consistently higher unit reserve prices than the procurer’s average indicates potentially corrupt favoritism. In auctions involving such favoritist pairs, procurers limit entry, so that their favored sellers face less competition, are more likely to win, and enjoy higher price markups. Electronic open-bid auctions with sufficient competition offset these effects.

我们开发了一种方法来识别保留价格的公共采购拍卖中的偏袒，并将其应用于俄罗斯的汽油采购。由于底价是在拍卖前设定的，因此在公平和竞争的拍卖中，底价应独立于中标者的身份。如果买方和卖方的单位底价始终高于买方的平均底价，则表明存在潜在的腐败偏袒。在涉及这类偏好组合的拍卖中，买家限制进入，这样他们偏爱的卖家面临的竞争就更少，更有可能获胜，并获得更高的加价。具有充分竞争的电子公开拍卖抵消了这些影响。

引用次数: 0

On the side effects of fiscal policy: Fiscal rules and income inequality 财政政策的副作用：财政规则与收入不平等

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-05-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102534

Jean-Louis Combes , Xavier Debrun , Alexandru Minea , Pegdéwendé Nestor Sawadogo , Cezara Vinturis

Contributing to an important literature on the side effects of fiscal policy, this paper employs a treatment effect analysis to show that fiscal rules (FR) have significant side effects on income inequality (IQ). Economically meaningful, this favorable causal direct effect is robust to many alternative specifications. Nevertheless, not all FR are alike: balanced budget and debt rules decrease IQ, contrary to expenditure rules that increase it. Finally, the effect of FR on IQ is found to be subject to heterogeneity related to various factors. Given the current upward global IQ trends, our results provide insightful evidence for governments of countries aiming at reducing IQ.

本文对财政政策副作用的重要文献进行了贡献，采用治疗效应分析来表明财政规则（FR）对收入不平等（IQ）有显著的副作用。经济意义上，这种有利的因果直接效应对许多替代规范都是稳健的。然而，并非所有FR都是一样的：平衡预算和债务规则会降低智商，而支出规则则会提高智商。最后，发现FR对智商的影响受各种因素的异质性影响。鉴于目前全球智商上升的趋势，我们的研究结果为旨在降低智商的国家政府提供了有见地的证据。

引用次数: 0

Greasing or Grinding? Regulatory context and the productivity effects of corruption: Evidence from Vietnamese SMEs 上油还是研磨？监管环境和腐败对生产率的影响：来自越南中小企业的证据

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102727

Chiara Tomasi , Quoc Thai Le , Thi Ngoc Lan Nguyen

This paper investigates the heterogeneous effects of bribery on the productivity of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Vietnam. Using panel data from the Vietnam Small and Medium Enterprise Survey (VSMES) and an instrumental variable approach to address endogeneity, we find that corruption generally reduces firm productivity. However, its impact varies across institutional contexts: the negative effect is stronger in provinces with efficient regulatory environments and weaker where firms face high bureaucratic burdens or identify government inefficiency as a key constraint. These findings support a weak form of the “grease the wheels” hypothesis, suggesting bribery may act as a costly coping strategy in poorly governed settings. The results highlight the importance of regulatory quality in moderating the effects of corruption and point to the need for reforms that address both corruption and bureaucratic inefficiencies.

本文研究了贿赂对越南中小企业生产率的异质性影响。利用越南中小企业调查（VSMES）的面板数据和工具变量方法来解决内生性问题，我们发现腐败通常会降低企业生产率。然而，其影响因制度背景而异：在监管环境有效的省份，负面影响更强，而在企业面临高额官僚负担或将政府效率低下视为关键制约因素的省份，负面影响较弱。这些发现支持了一种弱形式的“润滑车轮”假说，即在治理不善的环境中，贿赂可能是一种代价高昂的应对策略。研究结果强调了监管质量在缓和腐败影响方面的重要性，并指出需要进行改革，以解决腐败和官僚效率低下的问题。

引用次数: 0

A dictator’s retort to economic sanctions: Evidence from North Korea 独裁者对经济制裁的反驳：来自朝鲜的证据

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102732

Youngseok Park

This paper examines how economic sanctions affect internal resource allocation in North Korea. Drawing on insights from the political economy of authoritarian regimes, I propose that as sanctions intensify, the regime reallocates resources to maintain elite loyalty at the expense of weapons development. Using satellite-based nighttime lights data as a proxy for regional economic activity, I find that sanctions increase light intensity in elite-dominated areas like Pyongyang, while brightness declines around nuclear facilities. These findings suggest that sanctions may unintentionally reinforce regime stability by redirecting resources toward the ruling elite.

本文考察了经济制裁对朝鲜内部资源配置的影响。借鉴专制政权政治经济学的见解，我提出，随着制裁力度加大，该政权会重新分配资源，以牺牲武器发展为代价来维持精英阶层的忠诚。我使用基于卫星的夜间灯光数据作为区域经济活动的代表，发现制裁增加了平壤等精英主导地区的灯光强度，而核设施周围的亮度则下降。这些发现表明，制裁可能会通过将资源转向统治精英而无意中加强政权稳定。

引用次数: 0

Public investment on health and voter responses: Evidence from the mass vaccination during COVID-19 公共卫生投资与选民反应：来自COVID-19期间大规模疫苗接种的证据

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102718

Masaki Takahashi , Reo Takaku , Toyo Ashida , Yoko Ibuka

This study examines the effect of COVID-19 vaccination on political support by leveraging Japan’s age-based vaccination rollout, which prioritized people aged 65 and older. Using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design, we found that vaccination increased favorable opinions of vaccination progress and infection control measures by 27.4% and 14.7%, respectively. These favorable opinions extended to positive perceptions of other infection control measures, ultimately fostering trust in the government. In addition, the effect of vaccination was heterogeneous: it was more pronounced among individuals with chronic diseases, women, those of lower socioeconomic status, and those with higher levels of interpersonal trust. In contrast, low trusters became more dissatisfied with how the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics in 2021 were managed, without showing an increase in positive opinions of the government.

本研究通过利用日本基于年龄的疫苗接种计划（优先考虑65岁及以上的人群），考察了COVID-19疫苗接种对政治支持的影响。采用模糊回归不连续设计，接种疫苗使接种进度和感染控制措施的好感度分别增加27.4%和14.7%。这些有利的意见延伸到对其他感染控制措施的积极看法，最终培养了对政府的信任。此外，疫苗接种的效果是异质的：在慢性病患者、妇女、社会经济地位较低的人和人际信任水平较高的人中，效果更为明显。相反，低信任者对2021年东京奥运会和残奥会的运营表现出更多的不满，而对政府的正面评价却没有增加。

引用次数: 0

Hawks and Doves: Financial market perception of Western support for Ukraine 鹰派和鸽派：金融市场对西方支持乌克兰的看法

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102744

Matthias Neuenkirch , Maria Repko , Enzo Weber

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the West has been intensively discussing its support strategy. Hawkish positions of strengthening Ukraine via armaments, financial resources, and sanctions against Russia compete with dovish views of avoiding further escalation of the military and geopolitical conflict. We analyse how international financial markets perceived this news. We create a comprehensive data set of news related to the early phase of the war and measure reactions of five key financial markets. The results show that stronger support for Ukraine had a positive impact after the first weeks of the war when the Ukrainian position in the war improved, but a negative (or at least less positive) influence before. Thus, financial markets seem to have perceived support as a risk of further escalation threatening business prospects in the first phase. However, a hawkish line was a positive signal for financial markets after the change in perceptions.

自2022年2月24日俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来，西方一直在密集讨论其支持战略。通过军备、财政资源和制裁俄罗斯来加强乌克兰的鹰派立场，与避免军事和地缘政治冲突进一步升级的鸽派观点形成了竞争。我们分析了国际金融市场如何看待这一消息。我们创建了一个与战争早期阶段相关的全面新闻数据集，并衡量了五个主要金融市场的反应。结果显示，在战争的头几周后，乌克兰在战争中的地位得到改善，对乌克兰的更大支持产生了积极影响，但在此之前，对乌克兰的影响是消极的（或至少不那么积极）。因此，金融市场似乎已将支持视为在第一阶段进一步升级威胁商业前景的风险。然而，在看法发生变化后，强硬路线对金融市场来说是一个积极的信号。

引用次数: 0

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