European Journal of Political Economy最新文献

英文中文

Businessperson candidates and their employees: How do businessperson candidates use their firms to get elected? 商人候选人和他们的雇员：商人候选人如何利用他们的公司来当选？

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-09-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102753

Songkhun Nillasithanukroh

Businessperson politicians perform well in elections worldwide. What electoral strategy do they employ to win votes? This article highlights private sector employment as an underexplored resource in distributive politics. I argue businessperson politicians leverage their firms to mobilize employees as campaign workers, exchanging jobs for electoral support and services. Using list experiments in Thailand, I find evidence of this exchange: 36.5 % of employees voted for their employer, 27.0 % attended employer's campaign rallies, 17.5 % persuaded acquaintances to support their employer, 18.2 % distributed short-term benefits to voters, and 8.5 % distributed long-term benefits. I also provide evidence that businessperson politicians use private employment to circumvent restrictions limiting use of public resources for electoral gains by showing employees hired within two months before election were more likely to provide services than those hired outside this period, suggesting these hires were intentionally brought to support campaign activities during election season.

商人政治家在世界各地的选举中表现出色。他们采用什么选举策略来赢得选票？这篇文章强调了私营部门的就业是分配政治中未被充分开发的资源。我认为商人政治家利用他们的公司动员员工作为竞选工作者，用工作来换取选举支持和服务。通过在泰国的列表实验，我发现了这种交换的证据：36.5%的雇员投票给他们的雇主，27.0%参加雇主的竞选集会，17.5%说服熟人支持他们的雇主，18.2%向选民分配短期利益，8.5%分配长期利益。我还提供证据表明，商人政治家利用私人雇佣来规避限制使用公共资源以获得选举利益的限制，通过显示在选举前两个月内雇用的雇员比在此期间以外雇用的雇员更有可能提供服务，这表明这些雇员是有意在选举期间支持竞选活动。

引用次数: 0

Wealth distribution and redistributive preferences: Evidence from a randomized survey experiment 财富分配和再分配偏好：来自随机调查实验的证据

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-09-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102741

Nicolás Albacete, Pirmin Fessler, Peter Lindner

We analyze a large-scale experiment on redistributive preferences using data from the Austrian segment of the Eurosystem Household Finance and Consumption Survey. Austria, characterized by low wealth taxation but high wealth inequality, provides an ideal context. We estimate the causal effect of information about one’s wealth rank on preferences for wealth taxation. While the average treatment effect is statistically insignificant, individuals who overestimate their wealth position exhibit a positive response, whereas those who underestimate it show a negative response. The impact of information varies based on prior beliefs, yet the overall effect remains null.

我们分析了一个关于再分配偏好的大规模实验，使用来自欧元体系家庭金融和消费调查奥地利部分的数据。奥地利的特点是财富税低，但财富不平等程度高，提供了一个理想的背景。我们估计了个人财富等级信息对财富税偏好的因果效应。虽然平均治疗效果在统计上是微不足道的，但高估自己财富状况的人表现出积极的反应，而低估自己财富状况的人则表现出消极的反应。信息的影响根据先前的信念而变化，但总体效果仍然为零。

引用次数: 0

The effect of international sanctions on the size of the middle class in Iran 国际制裁对伊朗中产阶级规模的影响

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-09-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102749

Mohammad Reza Farzanegan , Nader Habibi

This study examines the impact of international economic sanctions, imposed on Iran due to its nuclear program, on the development of its middle class. Specifically, it investigates how Iran's middle class would have evolved absent sanctions post-2012. Using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) with nested optimization, we construct a counterfactual scenario for Iran based on a weighted average of comparable countries that mirror pre-2012 Iran but without significant sanctions. Our SCM results indicate that sanctions led to an average annual reduction of 17 percentage points in the size of Iran's middle class from 2012 to 2019. Our Synthetic Difference-in-Differences (SDID) analysis, however, provides a more conservative estimate of a 12 percentage points average annual loss, reinforcing the robustness of the findings. These estimates capture the total effect of sanctions, encompassing both their direct economic shocks, and Iran's policy responses. These results are validated through extensive sensitivity checks, including in-space and in-time placebo tests, leave-one-out analyses, and bias-corrected SCM. We also identify real GDP per capita, merchandise imports and exports, investment, industry value added, informal and vulnerable employment as key channels through which sanctions negatively impact the middle class.

这项研究考察了因伊朗核计划而对其实施的国际经济制裁对其中产阶级发展的影响。具体来说，它调查了2012年后如果没有制裁，伊朗的中产阶级会如何发展。使用嵌套优化的综合控制方法（SCM），我们基于2012年之前的伊朗但没有重大制裁的可比国家的加权平均值，为伊朗构建了一个反事实情景。我们的SCM结果表明，从2012年到2019年，制裁导致伊朗中产阶级的规模平均每年减少17个百分点。然而，我们的综合差异分析（SDID）提供了一个更保守的估计，即平均每年损失12个百分点，加强了研究结果的稳健性。这些估计反映了制裁的总体影响，既包括直接的经济冲击，也包括伊朗的政策反应。这些结果通过广泛的灵敏度检查得到验证，包括空间和时间上的安慰剂测试、遗漏分析和偏差校正SCM。我们还指出，实际人均GDP、商品进出口、投资、工业增加值、非正规就业和弱势就业是制裁对中产阶级产生负面影响的主要渠道。

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引用次数: 0

Population aging, voting, and political agendas 人口老龄化、投票和政治议程

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102748

Francesco Barilari , Nicola Mastrorocco , Matteo Paradisi

We study how population aging interacts with voters’ representation, engagement with politics, and the content of political agendas. Leveraging the European Social Survey, we observe that over the past two decades, individuals under the age of 50 have become a minority within the voter population. This shift has been exacerbated by a decline in the turnout propensity of those under 50, juxtaposed with an increase among older age groups. The evolution of turnout propensity has unfolded gradually across cohorts: each successive cohort entering the eligible voter population has exhibited lower turnout rates compared to its predecessors and has failed to converge to previous levels throughout its lifecycle. The disengagement of younger workers has been more pronounced in countries that have aged faster. Moreover, these dynamics have coincided with a shift in the political agenda. Through an analysis of political manifestos, we demonstrate a switch towards topics appealing to older voters, notably retirement policies. Similarly to the case of turnout, this shift has been stronger in countries where the population has aged more.

我们研究人口老龄化如何与选民代表、政治参与和政治议程内容相互作用。利用欧洲社会调查，我们观察到，在过去二十年中，50岁以下的个人在选民人口中已成为少数。50岁以下人群的投票倾向有所下降，而年龄较大的人群的投票倾向有所增加，这加剧了这种转变。投票倾向的演变在各个群体中逐渐展开：每一个连续进入合格选民群体的群体，其投票率都比前一个群体低，而且在整个生命周期中未能趋同于前一个群体的水平。在老龄化速度更快的国家，年轻员工的离职现象更为明显。此外，这些动态与政治议程的转变同时发生。通过对政治宣言的分析，我们展示了向吸引老年选民的话题的转变，特别是退休政策。与投票率的情况类似，这种转变在人口老龄化程度更高的国家更为明显。

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引用次数: 0

Dynamics of protest: Understanding violent and nonviolent protest in Africa 抗议的动力：了解非洲的暴力和非暴力抗议

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102745

Marcela Gomez-Ruiz , Paolo Li Donni , Maria Marino

This study introduces a novel empirical strategy to analyse the dynamic occurrence of violent and nonviolent protests (VP and NVP) in Africa. The strategy allows us to jointly model VP and NVP, accounting for both observed variables and unobserved time-varying factors. In doing so, we offer insights into the persistence of protest (i.e., the influence of one type of protest on the dynamics of the same type of protests over time), cross-effects between the two protest types (i.e., the influence of one type of protest on the dynamics of the other type over time), as well as protest determinants. Our findings, based on the Social Conflict Analysis Dataset (SCAD), reveal strong persistence in both VP and NVP, with past protests significantly correlating with future ones. Additionally, we show that violent and nonviolent protests are dynamically interlinked, with cross-effects between the two events. Some determinants, like repression, correlate with both VP and NVP, while others, such as education and technology, influence only one type of protest. Finally, by controlling for persistence, we explore how unobserved time-varying factors shape protest dynamics in Africa.

本研究引入了一种新的实证策略来分析非洲暴力和非暴力抗议（VP和NVP）的动态发生。该策略允许我们联合建模VP和NVP，同时考虑观察到的变量和未观察到的时变因素。在此过程中，我们对抗议的持续性（即一种抗议类型对同一类型抗议动态的影响）、两种抗议类型之间的交叉效应（即一种抗议类型对另一种抗议类型随时间的动态的影响）以及抗议决定因素提供了见解。我们的研究结果，基于社会冲突分析数据集（SCAD），揭示了VP和NVP的强持续性，过去的抗议与未来的抗议显着相关。此外，我们还表明，暴力和非暴力抗议活动是动态相互关联的，两者之间存在交叉效应。一些决定因素，如镇压，与反VP和反VP都相关，而其他决定因素，如教育和技术，只影响一种类型的抗议。最后，通过控制持久性，我们探讨了未观察到的时变因素如何影响非洲的抗议动态。

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引用次数: 0

A dictator’s retort to economic sanctions: Evidence from North Korea 独裁者对经济制裁的反驳：来自朝鲜的证据

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-08-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102732

Youngseok Park

This paper examines how economic sanctions affect internal resource allocation in North Korea. Drawing on insights from the political economy of authoritarian regimes, I propose that as sanctions intensify, the regime reallocates resources to maintain elite loyalty at the expense of weapons development. Using satellite-based nighttime lights data as a proxy for regional economic activity, I find that sanctions increase light intensity in elite-dominated areas like Pyongyang, while brightness declines around nuclear facilities. These findings suggest that sanctions may unintentionally reinforce regime stability by redirecting resources toward the ruling elite.

本文考察了经济制裁对朝鲜内部资源配置的影响。借鉴专制政权政治经济学的见解，我提出，随着制裁力度加大，该政权会重新分配资源，以牺牲武器发展为代价来维持精英阶层的忠诚。我使用基于卫星的夜间灯光数据作为区域经济活动的代表，发现制裁增加了平壤等精英主导地区的灯光强度，而核设施周围的亮度则下降。这些发现表明，制裁可能会通过将资源转向统治精英而无意中加强政权稳定。

引用次数: 0

Make it burn? Wildfires, disaster aid and presidential approval 让它燃烧？野火、灾难援助和总统批准

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-08-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102738

Michael Berlemann , Marina Eurich , Timur Eckmann

For governments, the occurrence of natural disasters creates the opportunity to demonstrate their willingness and competence in providing prompt and efficient disaster aid. A number of studies has investigated the political consequences of providing disaster aid by analyzing the effects of such aid on subsequent election results. However, the findings of these studies have not yielded a coherent picture. This paper makes a contribution to the existing literature by employing high-frequency (daily) survey data on presidential approval. The combination of this data with wildfire data and information on Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) aid approvals and denials reveals that Barack Obama gained in support among survey respondents for whom FEMA aid was approved by the president, while he was not punished for denials of FEMA assistance. We show that this effect is exclusively driven by respondents without party affiliation and that the effect is temporary.

对于政府来说，自然灾害的发生为他们提供了一个机会，可以展示他们提供及时有效的灾害援助的意愿和能力。一些研究通过分析这种援助对随后选举结果的影响，调查了提供灾害援助的政治后果。然而，这些研究的发现并没有产生一个连贯的画面。本文利用高频（每日）的总统支持率调查数据，对现有文献做出了贡献。这些数据与野火数据以及联邦紧急事务管理局（FEMA）批准和拒绝援助的信息相结合，显示巴拉克•奥巴马（Barack Obama）在联邦紧急事务管理局（FEMA）批准援助的受访者中获得了支持，同时他没有因为拒绝FEMA援助而受到惩罚。我们表明，这种影响完全是由没有党派关系的受访者驱动的，而且这种影响是暂时的。

引用次数: 0

Approval vs. participation quorums 批准与参与法定人数

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-08-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102747

Dmitriy Vorobyev , Azamat Valei , Andrei Matveenko

Using a pivotal costly voting model, we analyze how participation and approval quorum requirements, applied separately or jointly, affect turnout, election outcomes, and welfare. To characterize an optimal quorum rule, we first show that equally strict participation and approval quorums often yield similar outcomes, unless the two settings result in equilibria that differ in terms of whether voters can coordinate on participation. Second, any combination of quorum types can be replaced by either an approval or participation quorum alone, with negligible or no impact on equilibrium. Using these results, we suggest that to maximize turnout, no quorum is optimal unless low status quo support is expected, in which case a strict approval quorum is preferred. To increase the status quo’s chances of winning, a strict approval quorum or no quorum works best. From a voter welfare perspective, an approval quorum near half the electorate or no quorum at all are reasonable choices. These results hold whether we use Bayesian Nash equilibrium or quantal response equilibrium as the solution concept.

使用关键的昂贵投票模型，我们分析了参与和批准法定人数要求（分别或联合应用）如何影响投票率、选举结果和福利。为了描述最优法定人数规则，我们首先表明，同等严格的参与和批准法定人数通常会产生相似的结果，除非这两种设置导致在选民是否可以协调参与方面不同的均衡。其次，任何仲裁类型的组合都可以被单独的批准或参与仲裁所取代，对平衡的影响可以忽略不计或没有影响。利用这些结果，我们建议，为了使投票率最大化，没有法定人数是最优的，除非预期的低现状支持，在这种情况下，严格的批准法定人数是首选。为了增加维持现状获胜的机会，严格的批准法定人数或没有法定人数是最好的办法。从选民福利的角度来看，投票法定人数接近一半或根本没有法定人数都是合理的选择。这些结果无论我们使用贝叶斯纳什均衡还是量子响应均衡作为解决概念都是成立的。

引用次数: 0

Hawks and Doves: Financial market perception of Western support for Ukraine 鹰派和鸽派：金融市场对西方支持乌克兰的看法

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-08-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102744

Matthias Neuenkirch , Maria Repko , Enzo Weber

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the West has been intensively discussing its support strategy. Hawkish positions of strengthening Ukraine via armaments, financial resources, and sanctions against Russia compete with dovish views of avoiding further escalation of the military and geopolitical conflict. We analyse how international financial markets perceived this news. We create a comprehensive data set of news related to the early phase of the war and measure reactions of five key financial markets. The results show that stronger support for Ukraine had a positive impact after the first weeks of the war when the Ukrainian position in the war improved, but a negative (or at least less positive) influence before. Thus, financial markets seem to have perceived support as a risk of further escalation threatening business prospects in the first phase. However, a hawkish line was a positive signal for financial markets after the change in perceptions.

自2022年2月24日俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来，西方一直在密集讨论其支持战略。通过军备、财政资源和制裁俄罗斯来加强乌克兰的鹰派立场，与避免军事和地缘政治冲突进一步升级的鸽派观点形成了竞争。我们分析了国际金融市场如何看待这一消息。我们创建了一个与战争早期阶段相关的全面新闻数据集，并衡量了五个主要金融市场的反应。结果显示，在战争的头几周后，乌克兰在战争中的地位得到改善，对乌克兰的更大支持产生了积极影响，但在此之前，对乌克兰的影响是消极的（或至少不那么积极）。因此，金融市场似乎已将支持视为在第一阶段进一步升级威胁商业前景的风险。然而，在看法发生变化后，强硬路线对金融市场来说是一个积极的信号。

引用次数: 0

Geopolitical spillover: The Russia–Ukraine invasion and its effects on money market funds 地缘政治溢出：俄罗斯-乌克兰入侵及其对货币市场基金的影响

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-08-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102734

Vaibhav Keshav , Meghana Vaidya

This study is the first to examine the impact of the Russia–Ukraine Conflict on the United States (US) Money Market Fund (MMF) industry. Using granular data, we observe a significant outflow of $22 billion in US Prime MMFs compared to government MMFs. This suggests a “flight for safety” among investors. We report no prime MMF asset outflows in the European MMFs. Our results are robust for various fund-level controls and multiple fixed effects. This study provides new insights into how geopolitical events, like the Russia–Ukraine conflict, affect capital markets. Finally, we discuss its implications for investors, policymakers, and regulators concerned about maintaining financial stability during geopolitical turmoil.

本研究首次探讨了俄乌冲突对美国货币市场基金（MMF）行业的影响。使用细粒度数据，我们观察到与政府mmf相比，美国Prime mmf的大量流出为220亿美元。这表明投资者在“避险”。我们报告欧洲MMF中没有优质MMF资产外流。我们的结果对于各种基金水平的控制和多种固定效应是稳健的。这项研究为地缘政治事件（如俄乌冲突）如何影响资本市场提供了新的见解。最后，我们讨论了它对投资者、政策制定者和监管机构在地缘政治动荡期间关心维持金融稳定的影响。

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全部化学•材料生命科学医学物理工程技术环境•农林材料科学地球科学法学管理学化学环境科学与生态学计算机科学教育学经济学农林科学人文科学生物学数学物理与天体物理心理学综合性期刊其他工业工程理学历史学农学文学信息工程

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全部 ACS Publications Elsevier ieeexplore Springer The Royal Society of Chemistry Wiley

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European Journal of Political Economy

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