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Living to tell the tale: Europeans’ subjective well-being over autocratic and democratic times 活着讲故事:欧洲人在专制和民主时代的主观幸福感
IF 2.4 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102774
Begoña Álvarez , Fernando Ramos-Palencia
How do individuals assess their past happiness in European countries that experienced dictatorships? Do these patterns differ from those observed in established Western democracies? This paper provides novel evidence on these questions using life-history data from older Europeans in fourteen countries that experienced prolonged authoritarian rule in Southern and Central-Eastern Europe. Relying on individuals’ recalled happiest period in life, we track the probability of experiencing peak happiness over the years 1945–2017. First, we estimate time trends in this probability across autocratic and democratic periods. Second, we adopt an event-study approach to compare these trends with those observed among individuals in long-standing Western European democracies. Our findings reveal that, excluding the first postwar decade, people are at least as likely—and often more likely—to recall years under autocratic rule, rather than democratic ones, as part of their happiest life period, especially in ex-communist countries. Earlier democratic transitions in the Iberian countries appear more gradual and less disruptive in terms of personal happiness than the collapse of communism. We also document that the timing of the happiest period in life differ markedly for residents in Western Europe and their counterparts living in countries with an autocratic past. Consistent with previous research, we document widening happiness gaps in Central and Eastern Europe relative to Western European countries from the early 1990s onward, despite substantial economic and political convergence.
在经历过独裁统治的欧洲国家,人们如何评价他们过去的幸福?这些模式与西方老牌民主国家观察到的不同吗?本文利用来自南欧和中东欧14个经历了长期专制统治的国家的欧洲老年人的生活史数据,为这些问题提供了新的证据。根据个人回忆的人生中最幸福的时期,我们追踪了1945年至2017年间经历幸福高峰的概率。首先,我们估计了专制和民主时期这一概率的时间趋势。其次,我们采用事件研究方法,将这些趋势与西欧长期民主国家中观察到的个人趋势进行比较。我们的研究结果表明,除了战后的第一个十年,尤其是在前共产主义国家,人们至少有可能——而且往往更有可能——回忆起专制统治下的岁月,而不是民主统治下的岁月,这是他们一生中最幸福的时期。就个人幸福感而言,伊比利亚国家早期的民主转型似乎比共产主义的崩溃更渐进,破坏性更小。我们还记录了生活在西欧的居民和生活在专制国家的居民的人生中最幸福时期的时间明显不同。与之前的研究一致,我们记录了自20世纪90年代初以来,中欧和东欧相对于西欧国家的幸福差距不断扩大,尽管经济和政治存在实质性的趋同。
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引用次数: 0
The political economy of government spending: Fiscal rules, sustainability, and political cycles 政府支出的政治经济学:财政规则、可持续性和政治周期
IF 2.4 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102720
António Afonso, Jan-Egbert Sturm
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引用次数: 0
On the side effects of fiscal policy: Fiscal rules and income inequality 财政政策的副作用:财政规则与收入不平等
IF 2.4 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102534
Jean-Louis Combes , Xavier Debrun , Alexandru Minea , Pegdéwendé Nestor Sawadogo , Cezara Vinturis
Contributing to an important literature on the side effects of fiscal policy, this paper employs a treatment effect analysis to show that fiscal rules (FR) have significant side effects on income inequality (IQ). Economically meaningful, this favorable causal direct effect is robust to many alternative specifications. Nevertheless, not all FR are alike: balanced budget and debt rules decrease IQ, contrary to expenditure rules that increase it. Finally, the effect of FR on IQ is found to be subject to heterogeneity related to various factors. Given the current upward global IQ trends, our results provide insightful evidence for governments of countries aiming at reducing IQ.
本文对财政政策副作用的重要文献进行了贡献,采用治疗效应分析来表明财政规则(FR)对收入不平等(IQ)有显著的副作用。经济意义上,这种有利的因果直接效应对许多替代规范都是稳健的。然而,并非所有FR都是一样的:平衡预算和债务规则会降低智商,而支出规则则会提高智商。最后,发现FR对智商的影响受各种因素的异质性影响。鉴于目前全球智商上升的趋势,我们的研究结果为旨在降低智商的国家政府提供了有见地的证据。
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引用次数: 0
Preferences for wealth redistribution: The role of social background and merit 财富再分配的偏好:社会背景和优点的作用
IF 2.4 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102770
Elisa Stumpf , Silke Uebelmesser
This paper investigates preferences for wealth redistribution using a vignette experiment in which participants evaluate hypothetical taxpayers with a net wealth exceeding one million euros. The design allows us to study attitudes toward taxing the very wealthy. We differentiate between two forms of luck that may affect these preferences: brute luck such as random shocks unrelated to background or effort and circumstantial luck reflected in a privileged social background. Our findings show significantly stronger support for taxing individuals from rich families, particularly among relatively poor participants and those with low trust in official statistics. Attributing wealth to brute luck rather than effort also increases support for taxation, though this effect is weaker than the influence of a privileged background. When both forms of luck are present, i.e. being from a rich family and having experienced brute luck, the joint effect on support for taxation is only marginally larger than either factor alone.
本文通过一个小插曲实验来调查财富再分配的偏好,在这个小插曲实验中,参与者评估净财富超过一百万欧元的假设纳税人。这个设计使我们能够研究人们对向富人征税的态度。我们区分了两种可能影响这些偏好的运气形式:与背景或努力无关的随机冲击等野蛮运气,以及反映在特权社会背景中的环境运气。我们的研究结果显示,对来自富裕家庭的个人征税的支持明显更强,尤其是在相对贫穷的参与者和对官方统计数据信任度较低的参与者中。将财富归因于运气而非努力也会增加对税收的支持,尽管这种影响不如特权背景的影响大。当两种形式的运气都存在时,即来自富裕家庭并经历了残酷的运气,对税收支持的共同影响仅略大于单独的任何一个因素。
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引用次数: 0
Buy when there’s blood in the streets: How geopolitical adverse events can push defense stock returns to the extreme 血流成河时买进:地缘政治不利事件如何将防务类股的回报率推至极端
IF 2.4 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-11-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102771
David Neto
In this paper, we address the controversial question of whether the defense sector can benefit from adverse geopolitical events. To this end, we employ the Tail Index Regression (TIR) methodology proposed by Wang and Tsai (2009) and recently extended by Nicolau et al. (2023) to assess whether adverse geopolitical events drive extreme right-tail returns for ten major European and U.S. defense companies. Our results show that such shocks significantly amplify positive returns, but only for a subset of firms specializing in high-demand segments such as combat aviation, land-based military systems, and cybersecurity. Moreover, we find that geopolitical acts exert a stronger influence than threats, and that the impact is persistent over time for certain companies. Overall, while our findings highlight the heterogeneous exposure of defense firms to geopolitical risk, they also suggest that defense stocks may serve as effective hedging instruments during periods of elevated geopolitical tension, offering valuable insights for both policymakers and investors.
在本文中,我们讨论了一个有争议的问题,即国防部门是否可以从不利的地缘政治事件中受益。为此,我们采用了尾指数回归(TIR)方法,该方法由Wang和Tsai(2009)提出,最近由Nicolau等人(2023)扩展,以评估不利的地缘政治事件是否驱动了十家主要欧美防务公司的极右尾回报。我们的研究结果表明,这种冲击显著放大了正回报,但仅适用于专门从事高需求领域(如作战航空、陆基军事系统和网络安全)的公司子集。此外,我们发现地缘政治行为的影响比威胁更大,而且对某些公司的影响会随着时间的推移而持续。总体而言,虽然我们的研究结果突出了国防公司对地缘政治风险的异质性暴露,但它们也表明,国防股可能在地缘政治紧张局势加剧期间作为有效的对冲工具,为政策制定者和投资者提供了有价值的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Attractiveness and preferences for redistribution in non-Western countries 非西方国家对再分配的吸引力和偏好
IF 2.4 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102772
Henrik Jordahl , Astghik Mavisakalyan , Panu Poutvaara
This paper examines the link between physical attractiveness and individual support for income redistribution in a non-Western context. Using nationally representative survey data from the South Caucasus, we find that more attractive individuals are less supportive of redistribution, consistent with findings from Western settings. However, the negative correlation is only present among women. This gender pattern contrasts with previous studies, which have predominantly found a stronger correlation among men. Consequently, gender-specific relationships between attractiveness and redistributive preferences seem to be better explained by cultural influences than by universal claims grounded in evolutionary psychology.
本文研究了在非西方背景下,身体吸引力和个人对收入再分配的支持之间的联系。利用南高加索地区具有全国代表性的调查数据,我们发现更有吸引力的个人不太支持再分配,这与西方环境的调查结果一致。然而,负相关只存在于女性中。这种性别模式与之前的研究形成对比,之前的研究主要发现男性之间的相关性更强。因此,吸引力和再分配偏好之间的性别特定关系似乎更能通过文化影响来解释,而不是基于进化心理学的普遍说法。
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引用次数: 0
Getting it right: Communication, voting, and collective truth finding 正确:沟通、投票和集体真相发现
IF 2.4 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102768
Valeria Burdea , Jonathan Woon
We conduct an experiment to examine how communication affects the accuracy of collective judgments in small groups evaluating the truth of politically relevant facts and statements. We find that communication improves the accuracy of the group when individuals are more likely to be wrong, but reduces it when individuals are more likely to be correct—a pattern that reveals how deliberation can both clarify and confuse. Communication influences not only group accuracy but also individual belief updating. When groups vote without prior discussion, individuals appear to interpret others’ votes as mildly informative signals and update their beliefs about the likelihood that the statement is true accordingly. However, when communication occurs before voting, this pattern disappears, suggesting that social cues conveyed through discussion override the informational value of votes. Our analysis of chat transcripts reveals that group members use communication to share factual knowledge and engage in interactive reasoning, especially for difficult items. These findings highlight that while deliberation can facilitate truth-seeking, it can also undermine accuracy when consensus builds around mistaken beliefs.
我们进行了一项实验,以检验沟通如何影响小团体评估政治相关事实和陈述的真实性的集体判断的准确性。我们发现,当个人更有可能犯错时,沟通提高了团队的准确性,但当个人更有可能正确时,沟通却降低了准确性——这种模式揭示了深思熟虑是如何既能澄清又能混淆的。沟通不仅影响群体的准确性,也影响个人信念的更新。当群体在没有事先讨论的情况下投票时,个体似乎会将他人的投票解读为温和的信息信号,并相应地更新他们对该陈述正确可能性的信念。然而,如果在投票前进行交流,这种模式就消失了,这表明通过讨论传达的社会线索压倒了投票的信息价值。我们对聊天记录的分析表明,小组成员使用交流来分享事实知识,并参与互动推理,特别是在困难的项目上。这些发现强调,虽然深思熟虑可以促进寻求真相,但当共识建立在错误的信念上时,它也会破坏准确性。
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引用次数: 0
Local labour market conditions and electoral behaviour: An instrumental variable approach from Italy 当地劳动力市场状况和选举行为:来自意大利的工具变量方法
IF 2.4 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102769
Daniel Mele , Alessandro Pietropaoli
What is the causal impact of local employment dynamics on electoral behaviour? We combine Italian labour market area-level data for four national elections (2008, 2013, 2018 and 2022) with a shift-share IV estimation design to identify how local labour market conditions, captured by changes in the employment rate, affect voter participation and incumbent support. Our baseline estimates show that a 1 p.p. drop in the employment rate yields a significant 0.76 p.p. increase in turnout and a 0.80 p.p. decline in incumbent vote share. Further analyses reveal crucial nuances. First, exploring mediation, we find that higher turnout in response to worsening labour market conditions accounts for roughly one-quarter of the total negative impact on incumbent support via a participation channel. Second, the effects appear driven entirely by adverse conditions: we find strong electoral reactions in areas actually experiencing employment declines, but no significant response where conditions improve, consistent with a protest voting framework. Third, while regional-national partisan alignment slightly moderates effect magnitudes, national accountability for economic performance largely dominates the local electoral reaction.
本地就业动态对选举行为有何因果影响?我们将意大利四次全国选举(2008年、2013年、2018年和2022年)的劳动力市场区域数据与变动份额IV估计设计相结合,以确定就业率变化所反映的当地劳动力市场状况如何影响选民参与和现任支持率。我们的基线估计显示,就业率每下降1个百分点,投票率就会显著提高0.76个百分点,在职选民的得票率就会下降0.80个百分点。进一步的分析揭示了关键的细微差别。首先,探索调解,我们发现,应对劳动力市场状况恶化的更高投票率约占通过参与渠道对现任支持率的总负面影响的四分之一。其次,这种影响似乎完全是由不利条件驱动的:我们发现,在就业实际下降的地区,选民反应强烈,但在条件改善的地区,选民反应不明显,这与抗议投票框架一致。第三,虽然地区-国家党派结盟略微缓和了影响程度,但国家对经济表现的问责制在很大程度上主导了地方选举的反应。
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引用次数: 0
Corrupt reserve prices 储备价格腐败
IF 2.4 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102767
Sümeyra Atmaca , Koen Schoors , Elena Podkolzina
We develop a methodology to identify favoritism in public procurement auctions with reserve prices and apply it to procurement of gasoline in Russia. As reserve prices are set prior to the auction, they should be independent of the winning seller’s identity in a fair and competitive auction. A procurer-seller pair with consistently higher unit reserve prices than the procurer’s average indicates potentially corrupt favoritism. In auctions involving such favoritist pairs, procurers limit entry, so that their favored sellers face less competition, are more likely to win, and enjoy higher price markups. Electronic open-bid auctions with sufficient competition offset these effects.
我们开发了一种方法来识别保留价格的公共采购拍卖中的偏袒,并将其应用于俄罗斯的汽油采购。由于底价是在拍卖前设定的,因此在公平和竞争的拍卖中,底价应独立于中标者的身份。如果买方和卖方的单位底价始终高于买方的平均底价,则表明存在潜在的腐败偏袒。在涉及这类偏好组合的拍卖中,买家限制进入,这样他们偏爱的卖家面临的竞争就更少,更有可能获胜,并获得更高的加价。具有充分竞争的电子公开拍卖抵消了这些影响。
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引用次数: 0
Female politicians and corruption in rural India 印度农村的女政客和腐败
IF 2.4 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102764
Somdeep Chatterjee , Shiv Hastawala , Elisa Taveras
This paper leverages random assignment of female quotas for leadership positions on Indian village councils to assess its causal effect on corruption. Since the mid-1990s, India has mandated that at least one third of village council chief positions be randomly reserved for women. Using data from the Rural Economic and Demographic Survey (REDS) 2006, we find that an additional term reserved for a female head as opposed to just a single one reduces both the occurrence and bribe amounts paid to the local government by households. This reduction is also observed in bribes paid to other local officials suggesting downstream effects of electing female officials on corruption. As a potential mechanism, we provide speculative evidence that it takes time for women political leaders to establish and settle, and when they are able to do so, they appear more efficient and transparent, especially in terms of selecting households as beneficiaries for government programs.
本文利用印度村委会女性领导职位的随机分配来评估其对腐败的因果影响。自上世纪90年代中期以来,印度规定至少三分之一的村委会主任职位随机保留给女性。利用2006年农村经济和人口调查(REDS)的数据,我们发现,为女性户主预留一个额外的任期,而不是一个任期,既减少了家庭向地方政府支付的贿赂金额,也减少了家庭向地方政府支付的贿赂金额。在向其他地方官员行贿方面也观察到这种减少,这表明选举女性官员对腐败产生了下游效应。作为一种潜在的机制,我们提供了推测性证据,证明女性政治领导人的建立和稳定需要时间,当她们能够这样做时,她们显得更有效率和透明,特别是在选择家庭作为政府项目的受益者方面。
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引用次数: 0
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European Journal of Political Economy
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