European Journal of Political Economy最新文献

英文中文

Businessperson candidates and their employees: How do businessperson candidates use their firms to get elected? 商人候选人和他们的雇员：商人候选人如何利用他们的公司来当选？

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102753

Songkhun Nillasithanukroh

Businessperson politicians perform well in elections worldwide. What electoral strategy do they employ to win votes? This article highlights private sector employment as an underexplored resource in distributive politics. I argue businessperson politicians leverage their firms to mobilize employees as campaign workers, exchanging jobs for electoral support and services. Using list experiments in Thailand, I find evidence of this exchange: 36.5 % of employees voted for their employer, 27.0 % attended employer's campaign rallies, 17.5 % persuaded acquaintances to support their employer, 18.2 % distributed short-term benefits to voters, and 8.5 % distributed long-term benefits. I also provide evidence that businessperson politicians use private employment to circumvent restrictions limiting use of public resources for electoral gains by showing employees hired within two months before election were more likely to provide services than those hired outside this period, suggesting these hires were intentionally brought to support campaign activities during election season.

商人政治家在世界各地的选举中表现出色。他们采用什么选举策略来赢得选票？这篇文章强调了私营部门的就业是分配政治中未被充分开发的资源。我认为商人政治家利用他们的公司动员员工作为竞选工作者，用工作来换取选举支持和服务。通过在泰国的列表实验，我发现了这种交换的证据：36.5%的雇员投票给他们的雇主，27.0%参加雇主的竞选集会，17.5%说服熟人支持他们的雇主，18.2%向选民分配短期利益，8.5%分配长期利益。我还提供证据表明，商人政治家利用私人雇佣来规避限制使用公共资源以获得选举利益的限制，通过显示在选举前两个月内雇用的雇员比在此期间以外雇用的雇员更有可能提供服务，这表明这些雇员是有意在选举期间支持竞选活动。

引用次数: 0

Fiscal multipliers, public debt anchor and government credibility in a behavioural macroeconomic model 行为宏观经济模型中的财政乘数、公共债务锚和政府信誉

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2023-08-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2023.102457

Amélie Barbier-Gauchard, Thierry Betti, Théo Metz

We develop a behavioural macroeconomic model to investigate the question of fiscal policy credibility and how agents’ expectations about the output gap, public debt, expenditure and taxation affect the fiscal multiplier and debt stability. To do this, we model heterogeneous expectation-formation processes in a market populated by fundamentalists and chartists, agents being able to switch from one rule to another depending on the effective outcome in each period. This model produces waves of optimism and pessimism along the business cycle. We show in this article that when agents are optimistic about the future output gap and public debt, the fiscal multiplier tends to be larger whatever the nature of the fiscal shock. It also appears that fiscal expansion has less of a negative effect on public debt. Furthermore, agents’ expectations about public debt and the fiscal credibility of the government affect indicators of government performance (the fiscal multiplier and public debt stability).

我们开发了一个行为宏观经济模型来研究财政政策可信度问题，以及经济主体对产出缺口、公共债务、支出和税收的预期如何影响财政乘数和债务稳定性。为了做到这一点，我们在一个由原教旨主义者和图表学家组成的市场中建立了异质期望形成过程的模型，代理人能够根据每个时期的有效结果从一个规则切换到另一个规则。这种模式在商业周期中产生了一波又一波的乐观和悲观情绪。我们在本文中表明，当经济主体对未来产出缺口和公共债务持乐观态度时，无论财政冲击的性质如何，财政乘数往往更大。财政扩张对公共债务的负面影响似乎也较小。此外，代理人对公共债务和政府财政信誉的预期影响政府绩效指标（财政乘数和公共债务稳定性）。

引用次数: 0

Preferences for wealth redistribution: The role of social background and merit 财富再分配的偏好：社会背景和优点的作用

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102770

Elisa Stumpf , Silke Uebelmesser

This paper investigates preferences for wealth redistribution using a vignette experiment in which participants evaluate hypothetical taxpayers with a net wealth exceeding one million euros. The design allows us to study attitudes toward taxing the very wealthy. We differentiate between two forms of luck that may affect these preferences: brute luck such as random shocks unrelated to background or effort and circumstantial luck reflected in a privileged social background. Our findings show significantly stronger support for taxing individuals from rich families, particularly among relatively poor participants and those with low trust in official statistics. Attributing wealth to brute luck rather than effort also increases support for taxation, though this effect is weaker than the influence of a privileged background. When both forms of luck are present, i.e. being from a rich family and having experienced brute luck, the joint effect on support for taxation is only marginally larger than either factor alone.

本文通过一个小插曲实验来调查财富再分配的偏好，在这个小插曲实验中，参与者评估净财富超过一百万欧元的假设纳税人。这个设计使我们能够研究人们对向富人征税的态度。我们区分了两种可能影响这些偏好的运气形式：与背景或努力无关的随机冲击等野蛮运气，以及反映在特权社会背景中的环境运气。我们的研究结果显示，对来自富裕家庭的个人征税的支持明显更强，尤其是在相对贫穷的参与者和对官方统计数据信任度较低的参与者中。将财富归因于运气而非努力也会增加对税收的支持，尽管这种影响不如特权背景的影响大。当两种形式的运气都存在时，即来自富裕家庭并经历了残酷的运气，对税收支持的共同影响仅略大于单独的任何一个因素。

引用次数: 0

Shock absorption via savings in the EMU: The role of international and public mechanisms 欧洲货币联盟通过储蓄吸收冲击：国际和公共机制的作用

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-06-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102560

Cinzia Alcidi , Paolo D'Imperio , Gilles Thirion

Previous literature on the channels of risk sharing in the EMU suggests that consumption smoothing through net savings is the dominant channel. This research aims to provide a deeper understanding and a more accurate interpretation of the working of the savings channel by exploring its international and public dimension. To do so, we quantify the shock absorption from external versus domestic mechanisms, and from the government and private sectors. We then measure consumption smoothing patterns across key time periods, episodes of financial stress, economic upturns and downturns, fiscal policy stances, and investigate possible heterogeneity between core and periphery countries.

以往关于欧洲货币联盟风险分担渠道的文献表明，通过净储蓄平滑消费是主要渠道。本研究旨在通过探索储蓄渠道的国际和公共维度，对其运作提供更深入的理解和更准确的解释。为此，我们量化了来自外部机制与国内机制、以及来自政府和私营部门的冲击吸收。然后，我们测量了关键时期的消费平滑模式、金融压力、经济上升和下降、财政政策立场，并调查了核心国家和外围国家之间可能存在的异质性。

引用次数: 0

Baumol’s migrants: Productive and unproductive entrepreneurship and between-MSA migration 鲍莫尔的移民：生产性和非生产性企业家精神以及msa之间的移民

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102733

Justin T. Callais , Vincent Geloso , Alicia Plemmons , Gary A. Wagner

William Baumol proposes that there are two types of entrepreneurship: productive or unproductive. Productive entrepreneurship, characterized by innovation and efficient resource allocation, fosters economic growth and can act as a potent magnet for migration. Conversely, unproductive entrepreneurship, which often involves rent-seeking and regulatory circumvention, deters migration and potentially provokes out-migration. To test this link from the types of entrepreneurship and migration, we use a new index of entrepreneurship (productive and unproductive) in conjunction with a dataset covering migration to and from Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) from 2005 to 2019. Our analysis reveals that regions high in productive entrepreneurship experience significant net in-migration, while those dominated by unproductive entrepreneurship see the opposite effect.

William Baumol提出有两种类型的企业家精神：生产性的和非生产性的。以创新和有效资源分配为特征的生产性企业精神促进经济增长，并能成为吸引移徙的有力磁石。相反，往往涉及寻租和规避监管的非生产性企业家精神阻碍了移民，并可能引发外迁。为了从创业和移民的类型来检验这种联系，我们使用了一个新的创业指数（生产性和非生产性），并结合了一个涵盖2005年至2019年迁入和迁出大都市统计区（MSA）的数据集。我们的分析表明，生产性创业高的地区经历了显著的净移民，而那些以非生产性创业为主的地区则出现了相反的效果。

引用次数: 0

The OPEC/MENA/Arab nexus and the missing democratic transition 欧佩克/中东和北非/阿拉伯的关系和缺失的民主转型

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102731

Martin Paldam

The democratic transition is a strong relation in the data, as analyzed elsewhere. This paper deals with the only large exception: The 26 countries in the OPEC/MENA/Arab nexus have no democratic transition. The explanation is complex as it requires (at least) two intertwined theories: The oil theory (for OPEC) and the institutional genes theory (for MENA). More than half of the OPEC and MENA groups overlap, and in addition all but two of the MENA countries are Arab, with similar language, religion, history, and culture, giving spatial effects. The paper is an attempt to untangle and test the theories, and demonstrate that both theories are needed, hence the overlapping countries that are both OPEC and MENA are especially far from democracy.

正如其他地方分析的那样，在数据中，民主转型是一个强有力的关系。本文讨论的是唯一的大例外：欧佩克/中东和北非/阿拉伯关系中的26个国家没有民主转型。解释是复杂的，因为它需要（至少）两个相互交织的理论：石油理论（欧佩克）和制度基因理论（中东和北非）。超过一半的欧佩克和中东和北非国家重叠，此外，除了两个中东和北非国家外，其他国家都是阿拉伯国家，具有相似的语言、宗教、历史和文化，从而产生了空间效应。本文试图理清和检验这两种理论，并证明这两种理论都是必要的，因此，欧佩克和中东和北非地区的重叠国家尤其远离民主。

引用次数: 0

Threshold of shadows: Unveiling organised crime in Italian municipal public procurement 阴影的门槛：揭露意大利市政公共采购中的有组织犯罪

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102752

Stefania Fontana , Giorgio d’Agostino

This paper investigates the complicity of local public buyers in enabling the diversion of resources to organised crime through the manipulation of contract values in public works and services. Exploiting a discontinuity in anti-mafia screening procedures, we analyse a comprehensive dataset of public procurement contracts issued by Italian municipalities spanning from 2007 to 2019. Bunching estimators reveal a distinct pattern of contract value manipulation occurring just below the anti-mafia screening threshold of €150,000, with a heightened concentration observed in public works projects and provinces characterised by a higher prevalence of mafia influence. Our empirical analysis further shows that bunching is significantly more pronounced in municipalities that are later dissolved for mafia infiltration. Contracts below the threshold are also more likely to involve limited competition and to be awarded to firms with financial traits consistent with the hypothesis of mafia infiltration. By following the full procurement chain – from the design of the contract, to how competition is shaped, to who ultimately wins – we provide new evidence of collusion risks in local procurement, and highlight the importance of enhanced safeguards to counter corruption and organised crime within public procurement processes.

本文调查本地公共买家串谋操纵公共工程和服务的合约价值，使资源转用于有组织犯罪。利用反黑手党筛选程序的不连续性，我们分析了2007年至2019年意大利市政当局发布的公共采购合同的综合数据集。群集估算揭示了一种明显的合同价值操纵模式，发生在反黑手党筛选门槛15万欧元以下，在公共工程项目和黑手党影响较为普遍的省份中观察到这种情况更加集中。我们的实证分析进一步表明，在后来因黑手党渗透而解散的城市中，聚集现象更为明显。低于门槛的合同也更有可能涉及有限的竞争，并被授予具有与黑手党渗透假设一致的财务特征的公司。通过跟踪整个采购链——从合同的设计到竞争的形成，再到谁最终胜出——我们提供了本地采购存在串通风险的新证据，并强调了在公共采购过程中加强打击腐败和有组织犯罪的保障措施的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Getting it right: Communication, voting, and collective truth finding 正确：沟通、投票和集体真相发现

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102768

Valeria Burdea , Jonathan Woon

We conduct an experiment to examine how communication affects the accuracy of collective judgments in small groups evaluating the truth of politically relevant facts and statements. We find that communication improves the accuracy of the group when individuals are more likely to be wrong, but reduces it when individuals are more likely to be correct—a pattern that reveals how deliberation can both clarify and confuse. Communication influences not only group accuracy but also individual belief updating. When groups vote without prior discussion, individuals appear to interpret others’ votes as mildly informative signals and update their beliefs about the likelihood that the statement is true accordingly. However, when communication occurs before voting, this pattern disappears, suggesting that social cues conveyed through discussion override the informational value of votes. Our analysis of chat transcripts reveals that group members use communication to share factual knowledge and engage in interactive reasoning, especially for difficult items. These findings highlight that while deliberation can facilitate truth-seeking, it can also undermine accuracy when consensus builds around mistaken beliefs.

我们进行了一项实验，以检验沟通如何影响小团体评估政治相关事实和陈述的真实性的集体判断的准确性。我们发现，当个人更有可能犯错时，沟通提高了团队的准确性，但当个人更有可能正确时，沟通却降低了准确性——这种模式揭示了深思熟虑是如何既能澄清又能混淆的。沟通不仅影响群体的准确性，也影响个人信念的更新。当群体在没有事先讨论的情况下投票时，个体似乎会将他人的投票解读为温和的信息信号，并相应地更新他们对该陈述正确可能性的信念。然而，如果在投票前进行交流，这种模式就消失了，这表明通过讨论传达的社会线索压倒了投票的信息价值。我们对聊天记录的分析表明，小组成员使用交流来分享事实知识，并参与互动推理，特别是在困难的项目上。这些发现强调，虽然深思熟虑可以促进寻求真相，但当共识建立在错误的信念上时，它也会破坏准确性。

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引用次数: 0

Why do governments cut their deficits? 政府为什么要削减赤字？

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2023-12-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2023.102498

Benedict Clements , Sanjeev Gupta , Joao Tovar Jalles , Victor Mylonas

Using discrete choice models, this paper examines the macroeconomic and political factors motivating more than 450 fiscal consolidation episodes in 185 countries during the period 1979–2019. In emerging and developing countries, consolidations are more likely during “good times”: when growth is high, and countries experience positive terms of trade shocks with low inflation. In these countries, governments with a high margin of majority, regardless of how long they have been in power, are also more likely to consolidate fiscal accounts. The opposite seems to be the case in advanced economies, where more “mature” governments are more likely to implement fiscal consolidations and the consolidations themselves are more likely during periods of subdued growth. Evidence also suggests that tax-based consolidations may be relatively more politically challenging to implement. Finally, consolidations in advanced economies are relatively more likely to take place in the presence of fiscal rules.

本文使用离散选择模型，研究了1979-2019年期间185个国家450多次财政整顿的宏观经济和政治因素。在新兴国家和发展中国家，整合更有可能发生在“好时期”：即经济高速增长、各国经历积极的贸易冲击、低通胀的时期。在这些国家，拥有高多数票优势的政府，无论执政多久，也更有可能巩固财政账户。发达经济体的情况似乎正好相反，在这些国家，更“成熟”的政府更有可能实施财政整顿，而财政整顿本身也更有可能出现在增长放缓的时期。有证据还表明，实施以税收为基础的整合在政治上可能更具挑战性。最后，发达经济体在实行财政规则的情况下，进行财政整顿的可能性相对更大。

引用次数: 0

Scarring effects of major economic downturns: The role of fiscal policy and government investment 重大经济衰退的疤痕效应：财政政策和政府投资的作用

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-03-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102509

Martin Larch , Peter Claeys , Wouter van der Wielen

Long shunned as slow and ill timed, the response to the Covid-19 pandemic initiated a reassessment of fiscal policy as stabilisation tool. At the same time, there is ample evidence that major economic downturns produce lasting effects on real GDP in spite of active fiscal policy interventions. This paper takes a fresh look at economic scarring in 26 OECD countries, including 14 EU member states, since 1970 and examines the role played by fiscal policy. We find that higher current expenditure – the favoured active response - does not mitigate the lasting impact of major economic downturns on real GDP. In contrast, more government investment can help but generally receives little attention. As a result, scarring effects are significant confronting governments with sustainability risks, which in turn weigh on the room for manoeuvre in subsequent downturns. In sum, fiscal policy makers face two difficulties in the event of a major economic downturn: (i) adopt the right type of fiscal expansion, and (ii) find the right time to pivot from short-term stabilisation to fiscal consolidation while protecting investment. Both challenges are fraught with political economy issues.

对 Covid-19 大流行病的反应长期以来一直被认为是缓慢和不合时宜的，这促使人们重新评估作为稳定工具的财政政策。与此同时，有大量证据表明，尽管采取了积极的财政政策干预措施，重大经济衰退仍会对实际国内生产总值产生持久影响。本文重新审视了自 1970 年以来 26 个经合组织国家（包括 14 个欧盟成员国）的经济伤痕，并研究了财政政策所发挥的作用。我们发现，较高的经常性支出--最受欢迎的积极应对措施--并不能减轻重大经济衰退对实际 GDP 的持久影响。相比之下，增加政府投资会有所帮助，但通常很少受到关注。因此，疤痕效应非常明显，使政府面临可持续发展的风险，这反过来又削弱了政府在随后的经济衰退中的回旋余地。总之，财政政策制定者在发生重大经济衰退时面临两个难题：(i) 采取正确的财政扩张方式，(ii) 找到从短期稳定转向财政整顿的正确时机，同时保护投资。这两个难题都充满了政治经济问题。

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