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When Do Voters Punish Politicians Who Violate Democratic Norms? 选民何时惩罚违反民主规范的政治家?
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-12-23 DOI: 10.1177/1532673x231220646
Albert H. Fang, Adam Thal
Democracy requires voters to hold politicians accountable for violating democratic norms. Events surrounding Donald Trump have shown how partisanship can interfere with this process. While Trump has been accused of violating democratic norms, Republicans have opposed efforts to hold him accountable. Using a survey experiment, we explore the conditions under which Republican voters might become more willing to hold Trump accountable for violating democratic norms. We focus on whether Republicans can be convinced by members of their own party that Trump should be held accountable. Our research thus speaks to whether Republican voters might be receptive to appeals from Republican elites like Liz Cheney and Mitt Romney who have criticized Trump. We find more evidence than prior work that Republicans are receptive to appeals from co-partisans who are critical of Trump’s behavior. However, our overall finding is that co-partisan appeals are not highly effective at changing Republicans’ views of Trump.
民主要求选民追究政治家违反民主准则的责任。围绕唐纳德-特朗普(Donald Trump)的事件表明,党派纷争会如何干扰这一进程。在特朗普被指责违反民主准则的同时,共和党人却反对追究其责任。通过一项调查实验,我们探讨了在何种条件下共和党选民可能更愿意追究特朗普违反民主准则的责任。我们关注的重点是,共和党人是否能被自己党内的成员说服,认为特朗普应该承担责任。因此,我们的研究涉及共和党选民是否会接受利兹-切尼(Liz Cheney)和米特-罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)等批评特朗普的共和党精英的呼吁。与之前的研究相比,我们发现了更多的证据,表明共和党人能够接受批评特朗普行为的共同党派人士的呼吁。然而,我们的总体发现是,共同党派的呼吁对于改变共和党人对特朗普的看法并不十分有效。
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引用次数: 0
Access or Experience? Determinants of Distrust in US Elections 机会还是经验?不信任美国选举的决定因素
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-12-17 DOI: 10.1177/1532673x231220921
Sean Freeder, Enrijeta Shino
Recent partisan claims about the illegitimacy of the 2020 election highlight a need to better understand the determinants underlying Americans' trust in the electoral process. In this study, we focus on African Americans and conservatives, two groups that stand out both historically and contemporaneously for high levels of distrust in elections. Utilizing nationally representative survey data, we analyze the degree to which election distrust is associated with respondents’ attitudes towards policies addressing voter access (photo ID requirements, vote by-mail, and felon voting), perceptions of disenfranchisement, and their personal experience while voting. We find evidence that distrust is not tied to one’s personal voting experience, but rather to one’s policy attitudes towards electoral access. Importantly, for conservative and Black voters, the policy remedies that would lead to increased trust for one group would only further exacerbate the concerns of the other, suggesting that distrust towards American elections will be difficult to attenuate.
最近关于 2020 年选举非法性的党派主张凸显了更好地理解美国人对选举过程信任的决定因素的必要性。在本研究中,我们重点关注非裔美国人和保守派,这两个群体在历史上和当代都是对选举高度不信任的突出群体。利用具有全国代表性的调查数据,我们分析了选举不信任与受访者对选民准入政策(身份证照片要求、邮寄投票和重罪犯投票)的态度、对选举权被剥夺的看法以及投票时的个人经历之间的关联程度。我们发现有证据表明,不信任与个人的投票经历无关,而是与个人对选举权的政策态度有关。重要的是,对于保守派选民和黑人选民而言,政策补救措施若能提高一个群体的信任度,则只会进一步加剧另一个群体的担忧,这表明对美国选举的不信任将很难减轻。
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引用次数: 0
More Choices, More Problems? Ranked Choice Voting Errors in New York City 更多选择,更多问题?纽约市的排名选择投票错误
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-12-15 DOI: 10.1177/1532673x231220640
Lindsey Cormack
Examining the impacts of ranked choice voting (RCV) on voter efficacy is important as more areas consider adoption. The greater number of choices provided by longer RCV ballots may introduce opportunities for voters to misunderstand the ballot, make errant marks, or accidentally mark two or more candidates for one ranking, resulting in voidable ballots due to “overvoting.” Using ballot data from the 2013 general election, the 2017, and 2021 New York City democratic mayoral primaries, this paper asks whether voidable overvote ballots are more concentrated in constituencies with lower levels of educational attainment, average household incomes, and differing racial make-ups, and if this relationship is more pronounced under RCV than traditional elections. In the first RCV election in 2021, voters in locations with lower levels of educational attainment and median household incomes had higher shares of overvote voidable ballots than those in locations with higher educational attainment and incomes.
随着越来越多的地区考虑采用排序选择投票(RCV),研究其对选民效率的影响就显得尤为重要。较长的排序选择投票选票提供了更多的选择,这可能会给选民带来误解选票、错误标记或意外将两个或更多候选人标记为一个排名的机会,从而导致因 "过度投票 "而导致选票作废。本文利用2013年大选、2017年和2021年纽约市民主党市长初选的选票数据,探讨了可作废的多投选票是否更集中于教育程度较低、家庭平均收入较低和种族构成不同的选区,以及这种关系在RCV选举中是否比传统选举更明显。在 2021 年的首次 RCV 选举中,教育程度和家庭收入中位数较低地区的选民获得的超额可作废选票比例高于教育程度和收入较高地区的选民。
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引用次数: 0
How College Students React to COVID Vaccine PSAs: An Experimental Investigation 大学生对 COVID 疫苗公益广告的反应:实验调查
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-12-14 DOI: 10.1177/1532673x231220650
Kim Fridkin, Trudy Horsting, Anastasia L. Brown, Alexandra M. Williams
We explore how political and psychological factors condition the effectiveness of PSAs promoting COVID-19 vaccines. Targeting college students, we utilize a pretest-posttest experiment to examine how different PSAs (emotional, informational, and humorous) influence students’ emotional reactions and assessments of the PSAs. Further, we assess whether the PSAs are able to influence learning and persuasion. We find certain PSAs are more effective at changing people’s attitudes about the COVID-19 vaccine and the impact of these messages depends on people’s political and psychological predispositions. The informational PSA produces learning, regardless of students’ receptivity to pro-vaccine messaging. However, the humorous and emotional PSAs encourages learning only for those who are already receptive to the vaccine. These findings have implications for future public health campaigns aimed at college students, suggesting PSA campaigns developed to battle new health crises should be launched quickly before people develop strong attitudes about the emerging crisis.
我们探讨了政治和心理因素如何影响宣传 COVID-19 疫苗的公益广告的效果。我们以大学生为对象,利用前测-后测实验来研究不同的公益广告(情感类、信息类和幽默类)如何影响学生的情绪反应和对公益广告的评价。此外,我们还评估了公益广告是否能够影响学习和说服。我们发现某些公益广告在改变人们对 COVID-19 疫苗的态度方面更为有效,而这些信息的影响取决于人们的政治和心理倾向。无论学生对支持疫苗的信息接受程度如何,信息类公益广告都能产生学习效果。然而,幽默和感性的公益广告只鼓励那些已经接受疫苗的人学习。这些发现对未来针对大学生的公共卫生活动具有启示意义,建议为应对新的健康危机而开发的公益广告应在人们对新出现的危机形成强烈态度之前迅速推出。
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引用次数: 0
Do Violations of Democratic Norms Change Political Attitudes? Evidence From the January 6th Insurrection 违反民主准则会改变政治态度吗?来自 1 月 6 日叛乱的证据
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-12-11 DOI: 10.1177/1532673x231221987
Timothy Frye
How do citizens respond to extreme violations of democratic institutions, such as the January 6th, 2021 insurrection at the US Capitol? Using an online survey of 900 employed respondents conducted January 5–9, 2021, I find that those interviewed just hours after the insurrection were about 10% points less likely to identify as Republicans, reported greater dislike for Donald Trump, and expressed less attachment to conservatism even controlling for prior levels of party identification. Self-reported Trump voters interviewed after the insurrection were also less likely to identify as Republican and expressed a less favorable view of Donald Trump. The findings only reflect the short-term reactions of employed respondents but are robust to alternative specifications and the very narrow temporal window of the analyses helps to isolate the impact of the insurrection. These results offer evidence in the on-going debate over how to interpret the events of January 6th, 2021.
公民如何应对极端违反民主制度的行为,例如 2021 年 1 月 6 日在美国国会大厦发生的叛乱?我在 2021 年 1 月 5 日至 9 日对 900 名受访者进行了在线调查,结果发现,在暴动发生几小时后接受采访的受访者认同为共和党人的可能性降低了约 10%,对唐纳德-特朗普(Donald Trump)的厌恶程度更高,对保守主义的依恋程度更低,即使控制了先前的政党认同水平也是如此。叛乱后接受采访的自称为特朗普的选民也较少认同为共和党人,对唐纳德-特朗普的好感度也较低。这些结果只反映了受访者的短期反应,但对其他规格的影响是稳健的,而且分析的时间窗口非常窄,有助于隔离叛乱的影响。这些结果为目前关于如何解释 2021 年 1 月 6 日事件的争论提供了证据。
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引用次数: 0
The Personality and Politics of Cryptocurrency Investors 加密货币投资者的个性与政治
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-12-11 DOI: 10.1177/1532673x231220653
Grant Ferguson, Kathryn Haglin, Soren Jordan
Investing in cryptocurrency has become more popular among Americans. Despite this, politicians and social scientists know almost nothing about the politics of cryptocurrency in the American public. By analyzing an original, nationally representative survey of 2500 American respondents, we create the first robust profile of the personalities, demographics, and political attitudes of cryptocurrency owners. We show that Americans who report hardship from inflation are more likely to own cryptocurrency, suggesting that when inflation is high, Americans may be more likely to use cryptocurrency as a medium of exchange and store of value. Americans who favor lower government spending and are more inclined toward conspiratorial thinking are also more likely to own cryptocurrency. Finally, there is a personality to cryptocurrency owners, with those open to new experiences more likely to own it and the conscientious less likely to own it. Our results have implications for how the American public may use cryptocurrency going forward.
投资加密货币在美国人中越来越流行。尽管如此,政治家和社会科学家对美国公众的加密货币政治几乎一无所知。通过分析一项对 2500 名美国受访者进行的具有全国代表性的原创调查,我们首次建立了关于加密货币持有者的个性、人口统计和政治态度的强大档案。我们的研究表明,因通货膨胀而生活困难的美国人更有可能拥有加密货币,这表明当通货膨胀严重时,美国人可能更倾向于使用加密货币作为交易媒介和价值储存手段。赞成降低政府支出和更倾向于阴谋论思维的美国人也更有可能拥有加密货币。最后,加密货币持有者的性格也有影响,那些对新体验持开放态度的人更有可能拥有加密货币,而那些兢兢业业的人则不太可能拥有加密货币。我们的研究结果对美国公众今后如何使用加密货币具有启示意义。
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引用次数: 0
An Intersectional Exploration of Psychological Violence, Threats, and Physical Violence of Mayors in 2021 对 2021 年市长遭受的心理暴力、威胁和人身暴力的交叉探索
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-12-11 DOI: 10.1177/1532673x231220648
Rebekah Herrick, Sue Thomas
Using an original dataset, we offer an intersectional exploration of psychological violence, threats, and physical violence against U.S. mayors in 2021 in cities of 10,000+ in population. We also explore violence that is gendered and raced. Overall, we find significant and meaningful differences among gender/race groups. Women of color and non-Hispanic white women faced higher rates of threats, gendered, and sexualized violence than men, and women of color were the only mayors to report heightened levels of gendered and raced violence. Non-Hispanic white women mayors were distinctive in that they reported higher levels of psychological violence, including being criticized for their appearance and perceptions that they were too emotional, but were least likely to be called sexist. These findings suggest that there are race- and gender-based costs of holding office. If so, the effects on democratic representation and the benefits from representational diversity will be forfeited.
利用原创数据集,我们对 2021 年人口超过 10,000 人的城市中针对美国市长的心理暴力、威胁和身体暴力进行了交叉探索。我们还探讨了性别暴力和种族暴力。总体而言,我们发现不同性别/种族群体之间存在着显著而有意义的差异。有色人种女性和非西班牙裔白人女性面临威胁、性别暴力和性暴力的比例高于男性,有色人种女性是唯一报告性别暴力和种族暴力程度加剧的市长。非西班牙裔白人女市长的与众不同之处在于,她们报告了更高程度的心理暴力,包括因外貌而受到批评,以及认为她们过于情绪化,但最不可能被称为性别歧视者。这些研究结果表明,担任职务需要付出基于种族和性别的代价。如果是这样的话,民主代表制的效果和代表制多样性的好处就会丧失。
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引用次数: 1
Stopping the Steal and Selling the Big Lie: An Analysis of Tweets and Certification Votes Among House Republicans in the Wake of the 2020 Presidential Election 制止偷窃和兜售大谎言:2020 年总统大选后众议院共和党人的推文和认证投票分析
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-12-07 DOI: 10.1177/1532673x231220642
Kristina M. LaPlant, Keith E. Lee, J. LaPlant
As our nation struggles to make sense of the pathologies of conspiracy thinking and hyper-polarization in our body politics, this study investigates why some members of the House GOP caucus used Twitter to promote conspiracy theories surrounding the 2020 election. Our study first examines the predictors of conspiracy theory tweeting, and second, whether this messaging was related to voting for or against the certification of presidential election results in Arizona and Pennsylvania on January 6th. Our results suggest President Trump’s election performance in 2020, conspiratorial tweeting, and freshman status of House members were the driving factors of voting behavior on January 6th.
在我们的国家努力理解阴谋思维的病态和我们身体政治中的极度两极分化之际,这项研究调查了为什么众议院共和党核心小组的一些成员利用推特来宣传围绕2020年大选的阴谋论。我们的研究首先检查了阴谋论推文的预测因素,其次,这些信息是否与1月6日亚利桑那州和宾夕法尼亚州总统选举结果的认证投票有关。我们的研究结果表明,特朗普总统在2020年的选举表现、阴谋论推文以及众议院议员的新生身份是1月6日投票行为的驱动因素。
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引用次数: 0
The Nationalization of Individual Campaign Contributions in U.S. Senate Elections, 1984-2020 美国参议院选举中个人竞选捐款的国有化,1984-2020 年
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-12-07 DOI: 10.1177/1532673x231220639
Nicholas Jacobs, Wasike Gil Imboywa
This article explores the trend of increasing nationalization in American politics and its effect on the U.S. Senate's federalizing dynamics, using campaign finance as an indicator. We analyze the geographic distribution of campaign contributions to U.S. Senate races from 1984 to 2020, tracing the nationalization of donor behavior in America. Key findings suggest that more ideologically conservative senators and those running for their first election are likely to rely heavily on out-of-state donations, with regional differences also evident. We argue that the nationalization of campaign finance challenges the Senate's representative structure and hints at another dimension of inequality in American politics—geographical versus national influence. This study offers no definitive normative argument but posits restricting out-of-state donations as a potential solution to address the growing inequality in the voting power of Senate members.
本文以竞选资金为指标,探讨了美国政治日益国有化的趋势及其对美国参议院联邦化动态的影响。我们分析了1984年至2020年美国参议院竞选竞选捐款的地理分布,追踪了美国捐赠行为的国有化。主要调查结果显示,意识形态较为保守的参议员和首次竞选的参议员可能严重依赖州外捐款,地区差异也很明显。我们认为,竞选资金的国有化挑战了参议院的代表结构,并暗示了美国政治不平等的另一个方面——地域与国家影响力。这项研究没有提供明确的规范性论证,但认为限制州外捐款是解决参议院议员投票权日益不平等的潜在解决方案。
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引用次数: 0
A Shadow’s Influence? How the Shadow Docket Influences Public Opinion 影子的影响?影子备审案件如何影响舆论
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-12-07 DOI: 10.1177/1532673x231220645
EmiLee Smart
Does increased use of the shadow docket influence public opinion of the Supreme Court? In recent years, the shadow docket of the Supreme Court has been used with increased frequency to make important decisions. The little research done previously on this docket has led to speculation that the shadow docket creates potential problems with perceptions of legitimacy for the Court. I theorize that procedures matter in changing public opinion of an institution when the procedures are nontransparent, stray from expected norms, and are thus perceived as politically unfair. I administered a survey experiment and find evidence to suggest that use of the shadow docket procedure does lead to less support for decisions as well as an increased support for measures of broad court curbing. The results have important implications for approval of the Court as well as the role of the Court in a transparent democracy.
越来越多地使用“影子摘要”是否会影响最高法院的公众舆论?近年来,最高法院越来越频繁地使用影子摘要来做出重要决定。先前对这一摘要所做的少量研究导致人们猜测,影子摘要会对法院的合法性产生潜在的问题。我的理论是,当程序不透明、偏离预期规范、因而被认为在政治上不公平时,程序在改变公众对一个机构的看法方面很重要。我进行了一项调查实验,并找到证据表明,使用影子摘要程序确实导致对决定的支持减少,同时对广泛的法院限制措施的支持增加。其结果对法院的核准以及法院在透明民主中的作用具有重要影响。
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引用次数: 0
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American Politics Research
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