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Who is To Blame? Partisans’ Use of Blame Spreading in Reaction to Unfair or Dishonest Behavior 谁是罪魁祸首?党派人士在应对不公平或不诚实行为时使用责任扩散法
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-12-07 DOI: 10.1177/1532673x231220638
Amy D. Meli
Blame attribution research suggests partisans acknowledge evidence that portrays copartisans negatively but blame externalities for negative events. This study identifies another blame attribution pattern. When people observe unfair/dishonest behavior by a copartisan, instead of shifting blame entirely to others, they engage in blame-spreading. I conduct two tests: a survey of undergraduate students who watched part of a 2020 Presidential debate and a survey experiment of a random sample of adults that randomizes the party affiliation of the debate participant engaging in unfair/dishonest behavior. When the unfair actor is a copartisan, people blame both participants equally. When the unfair actor is in the out-party, people blame the out-party actor. These findings suggest individuals acknowledge undesirable behavior among copartisans, but seek to justify it by identifying blame-worthy behavior by others, thus providing an additional mechanism in motivated reasoning whereby individuals acknowledge events while finding a way to justify such behavior.
指责归因研究表明,党派成员承认负面描述合作者的证据,但将负面事件归咎于外部性。这项研究确定了另一种指责归因模式。当人们看到合作者的不公平/不诚实行为时,他们不是把责任完全转移到别人身上,而是参与到指责传播中。我进行了两项测试:一项是对观看了2020年总统辩论部分内容的本科生进行的调查,另一项是对随机抽样的成年人进行的调查实验,随机抽取辩论参与者参与不公平/不诚实行为的党派。当不公平的行为者是合作者时,人们会平等地指责双方。当不公平的行为人是外部行为人时,人们会指责外部行为人。这些发现表明,个体承认合作伙伴中的不良行为,但试图通过识别他人应受谴责的行为来为其辩护,从而在动机推理中提供了一种额外的机制,使个体在承认事件的同时找到为此类行为辩护的方法。
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引用次数: 0
Polarizing Online Elite Rhetoric at the Federal, State, and Local Level During the COVID-19 Pandemic 在 COVID-19 大流行期间,联邦、州和地方各级网上精英言论两极分化
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-12-06 DOI: 10.1177/1532673x231220647
Michael Heseltine
Times of national and international crisis are often unifying events which lower levels of division within the public and between political elites. Yet, COVID-19 pandemic responses in the United States have been viewed as markedly polarized. Using a comprehensive dataset of over four million social media posts sent by local, state, and federal level political officials between January 2020 and September 2022, this paper explores the extent to which the COVID-19 pandemic was a rhetorically unifying or divisive event, and whether rhetorical responses differed across levels of government. The results show that federal level officials were less likely to message about COVID-19 and were more likely to do so in a polarizing fashion compared to state and local officials. Temporally, in the early stages of the pandemic there was indeed a collective rhetorical de-polarization across all levels of government. However, as the pandemic progressed, COVID-related messaging became more polarizing, especially among Republicans. Evidence also emerges of dynamic responsiveness from elected officials, with relativeness attentiveness to COVID increasing and polarizing rhetoric decreasing during time periods when local case counts were relatively high. These findings suggest that rhetorical unity is still possible, even in times of high political polarization, but that this unity is also short-lived and tempered by political and electoral considerations.
国家和国际危机时期往往是统一的事件,降低了公众内部和政治精英之间的分歧。然而,美国对COVID-19大流行的反应被视为明显两极分化。本文利用地方、州和联邦各级政治官员在2020年1月至2022年9月期间发布的400多万条社交媒体帖子的综合数据集,探讨了2019冠状病毒病大流行在多大程度上是一个在修辞上统一还是分裂的事件,以及各级政府的修辞反应是否不同。结果显示,与州和地方官员相比,联邦官员不太可能发布有关COVID-19的信息,而且更有可能以两极分化的方式发布信息。暂时而言,在大流行的早期阶段,各级政府确实在口头上集体消除了两极分化。然而,随着疫情的发展,与covid相关的信息变得更加两极分化,尤其是在共和党人中。还有证据表明,民选官员的反应是动态的,在当地病例数量相对较高的时期,对COVID的相对关注有所增加,两极分化的言论有所减少。这些发现表明,即使在高度政治两极分化的时代,修辞上的统一仍然是可能的,但这种统一也是短暂的,并受到政治和选举考虑的影响。
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引用次数: 0
The Effects of the Great Compromise on the Constitutional Convention of 1787 大妥协方案对 1787 年制宪会议的影响
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-12-05 DOI: 10.1177/1532673x231220643
Keith L. Dougherty, Aaron A. Hitefield
The success of any constitutional convention can depend on its provisions for power sharing. We test three claims about the effects of the Great Compromise, a power sharing agreement, on the Constitutional Convention of 1787. First, we find that the convention was not more likely to pass proposals to strengthen the national government after the compromise than before, contrary to claims made by historians. Two small states increased their support, but other states did not. Second, Southern states (and large states) were more likely to support weakening the national government after the compromise. Third, large states were more likely to support proposals to strengthen the power of the House relative to the Senate after the compromise, and small states were more likely to resist. However, the opposite was not true for strengthening the Senate. Our results suggest a new narrative about the effects of Great Compromise on the Constitutional Convention.
任何制宪会议的成功都可能取决于它对权力分享的规定。我们测试了关于大妥协(一项权力分享协议)对1787年制宪会议影响的三种说法。首先,我们发现,与历史学家的说法相反,在妥协之后,大会并没有比以前更有可能通过加强国家政府的提案。两个小州增加了他们的支持,但其他州没有。其次,南方各州(以及大州)更有可能在妥协后支持削弱国家政府。第三,在妥协后,大州更有可能支持加强众议院相对于参议院权力的提议,而小州更有可能抵制。然而,加强参议院的情况却并非如此。我们的研究结果提出了一种关于“大妥协”对制宪会议影响的新叙述。
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引用次数: 0
Partisan Self-Interest and Views on the Electoral College: How Electoral Inversions Activate Differences in Support for the System 党派自身利益与对选举团的看法:选举倒置如何激活对选举制度支持的差异
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-12-05 DOI: 10.1177/1532673x231220651
Benjamin T. Toll, Courtney Corona
Most Americans have little knowledge about why we elect the president through the Electoral College. This complex system that requires understanding the impact of 51 different elections on the outcome of the presidential election leads many Americans to desire the simple effectiveness of the popular vote method. Previous scholarship highlights a majority of Americans wanting to replace our current system with the popular vote. Political science research lacks a clear understanding of the impact of partisan self-interest on views of changing the presidential election method. In this paper we look at public opinion surveys over the last 45 years and find there was no clear partisan difference in views of changing the system before the electoral inversion of 2000. We argue that partisan self-interest was activated because of this electoral inversion. The inversion of 2016 led to a hardening of opinions on replacing the Electoral College with the popular vote.
大多数美国人对我们为什么通过选举团选举总统知之甚少。这个复杂的系统需要了解51个不同的选举对总统选举结果的影响,这使得许多美国人渴望普选法的简单有效性。以前的研究表明,大多数美国人希望用普选来取代我们目前的制度。政治科学研究对党派自身利益对改变总统选举方法的看法的影响缺乏清晰的认识。在本文中,我们回顾了过去45年的民意调查,发现在2000年选举反转之前,在改变制度的观点上没有明显的党派差异。我们认为,由于这种选举倒置,党派自身利益被激活。2016年的逆转导致人们对用普选取代选举团的观点变得更加强硬。
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引用次数: 0
“Extending the Referendum Model of Presidential Election Outcomes: Both Candidates Matter” “扩大总统选举结果的公投模型:两位候选人都很重要”
3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI: 10.1177/1532673x231206138
Benjamin Highton, Walter J. Stone
We offer a candidate-centered amendment to incumbent-referendum models of presidential election outcomes that dominate the literature on post-WWII presidential elections. Our argument is that incumbent-challenger differences in character qualifications and issue concerns of the electorate should be included. These differentials, which recognize the advantage or disadvantage of the incumbent relative to the challenger party candidate have strong effects on election outcomes independent of the state of the economy, the number of years the incumbent party has held the White House, and presidential approval. Properly understood, in addition to the state of national affairs, presidential election outcomes are about the choice presented to the mass public. This added element means that candidates matter for election outcomes and electoral change in ways that have not been properly appreciated in existing scholarship.
我们提供了一个以候选人为中心的总统选举结果的现任公民投票模型的修正,该模型在二战后的总统选举文献中占主导地位。我们的论点是,在职者和挑战者在性格资格和选民关注的问题上的差异应该包括在内。这些区分现任总统相对于挑战者政党候选人的优势或劣势的差异,对选举结果有很强的影响,而不受经济状况、现任政党执政年数和总统支持率的影响。正确地理解,除了国家事务之外,总统选举的结果是关于向大众提供的选择。这一增加的因素意味着候选人对选举结果和选举变化的影响,在现有的学术研究中没有得到适当的重视。
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引用次数: 0
Preemptive Action: Measuring Presidential Assertiveness in Foreign Policy Lawmaking 先发制人的行动:衡量总统在外交政策立法中的自信心
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI: 10.1177/1532673X221135550
Jakob Wiedekind
To what extent and under which conditions do presidents challenge foreign policy legislation through Statements of Administration Policy (SAPs)? While the presidents’ use of executive orders and signing statements has been studied extensively, this paper argues that SAPs are a subtler and less politically costly tool that is more important than scholars realized. Delivered at a crucial intervention point along the legislative process, these communications provide a key gateway for assertive presidential challenges. Relying on a novel assertiveness-score, this paper finds that SAPs target legislative content more aggressively over time and that the composition of government predicts executive assertiveness particularly well. Next to that, I show that presidents are more assertive when their term comes to an end. These insights contribute to our understanding of spiking interbranch tensions in American Politics.
在何种程度和条件下,总统会通过行政政策声明(SAP)来挑战外交政策立法?尽管对总统使用行政命令和签署声明的情况进行了广泛研究,但本文认为,SAP 是一种更微妙、政治成本更低的工具,其重要性超过了学者们的认识。在立法过程中的关键干预点,这些沟通为总统的自信挑战提供了一个关键通道。本文通过一种新颖的自信心评分法发现,随着时间的推移,SAP针对立法内容的攻击性越来越强,而政府的组成对行政自信心的预测尤为准确。此外,我还发现总统在任期结束时会更加自信。这些见解有助于我们理解美国政治中不断升级的部门间紧张关系。
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引用次数: 0
Messages Designed to Increase Perceived Electoral Closeness Increase Turnout 旨在增加选举接近感的信息会增加投票率
3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-23 DOI: 10.1177/1532673x231206139
Daniel R. Biggers, David J. Hendry, Gregory A. Huber
The decision-theoretic Downsian model and other related accounts predict that increasing perceptions of election closeness will increase turnout. Does this prediction hold? Past observational and experimental tests raise generalizability and credible inference issues. Prior field experiments either (1) compare messages emphasizing election closeness to non-closeness messages, potentially conflating changes in closeness perceptions with framing effects of the voter encouragement message, or (2) deliver information about a particular race’s closeness, potentially altering beliefs about the features of that election apart from its closeness. We address the limitations of prior work in a large-scale field experiment conducted in seven states and find that a telephone message describing a class of contests as decided by fewer, as opposed to more, votes increases voter turnout. Furthermore, this effect exceeds that of a standard election reminder. The results imply expected electoral closeness affects turnout and that perceptions of closeness can be altered to increase participation.
决策理论的唐氏模型和其他相关理论预测,对选举接近程度的认知增加将增加投票率。这个预测站得住脚吗?过去的观察和实验测试提出了概括性和可信推理问题。先前的现场实验要么(1)比较强调选举接近度的信息与非接近度的信息,可能会将接近度感知的变化与选民鼓励信息的框架效应相混淆,要么(2)传递有关特定种族接近度的信息,可能会改变对该选举的特征的看法。我们在七个州进行的大规模现场实验中解决了先前工作的局限性,并发现一个电话信息描述了由更少的选票决定的一类比赛,而不是更多的选票,增加了选民的投票率。此外,这种效果超过了标准的选举提醒。结果表明,预期的选举接近程度会影响投票率,而对接近程度的看法可以改变以增加参与度。
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引用次数: 0
Blind Trust, Blind Skepticism: Liberals’ & Conservatives’ Response to Academic Research 盲目信任,盲目怀疑:自由主义者保守派对学术研究的回应
3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-19 DOI: 10.1177/1532673x231206136
Lauren Ratliff Santoro, Emily Sydnor
Public perceptions of science and scientific institutions have become more negative in recent years, especially among individuals who identify as ideologically conservative in the United States. While there is much work investigating the origins and implications of this decline, we focus instead on understanding the ways in which symbols of scientific expertise, like the university, convey information in a politicized environment. Universities are seen as trusted scientific experts or biased propagandists, depending on individuals’ ideological identification. Are individuals more likely to believe research coming out of universities that they perceive to reflect their own ideological biases? This project looks at the effect of the academic source cue – the university label – on individual assessments of the research that these universities produce. Drawing on results from two survey experiments focused on climate change and racial wealth disparity research, we find that while liberals are more likely to believe research that confirms their previously held beliefs, they are also more likely to believe incongruent information when it comes from a university that they believe shares their bias. Conservatives, on the other hand, remain skeptical of academic research despite the message or its’ source. The findings point toward both “blind trust” and “blind skepticism” in academic institutions.
近年来,公众对科学和科学机构的看法变得更加消极,尤其是在美国那些意识形态上保守的人当中。虽然有很多工作在调查这种衰落的起源和影响,但我们的重点是理解科学专业知识的象征,如大学,在政治化的环境中传达信息的方式。根据个人的意识形态认同,大学被视为值得信赖的科学专家或有偏见的宣传机构。个人是否更倾向于相信他们认为反映自己意识形态偏见的大学研究成果?这个项目着眼于学术来源线索——大学标签——对这些大学产生的研究的个人评估的影响。根据两项关于气候变化和种族财富差距研究的调查实验的结果,我们发现,尽管自由主义者更有可能相信证实他们先前信念的研究,但他们也更有可能相信来自他们认为与他们有相同偏见的大学的不一致信息。另一方面,保守主义者仍然对学术研究持怀疑态度,尽管这些信息或其来源。研究结果指出了学术机构的“盲目信任”和“盲目怀疑”。
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引用次数: 0
Ideology, Information, and Social Welfare Preferences 意识形态、信息和社会福利偏好
3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-19 DOI: 10.1177/1532673x231206151
Hang Qi, Jake Haselswerdt
Research shows that Americans have a generally poor understanding of welfare programs. Providing information about such programs has the potential to shape public preferences, but we argue that such effects may differ based on the content of the information and its correspondence with existing ideological beliefs. Using original survey experiments embedded in the Cooperative Congressional Election Study and through Amazon’s Mechanical Turk, we analyze how the relationship of ideology with welfare programs varies in response to different types of negative information about the program, and different descriptions of policy design. We find that information about inadequate benefits has a larger negative impact on welfare support for liberals than for conservatives but that both liberals and conservatives may be equally concerned about fraud and inefficiency. Other information about policy design has the expected conditional effect: state (as opposed to federal) funding and short time limits for benefits are more appealing to conservatives than liberals.
研究表明,美国人对福利项目的了解普遍较差。提供有关此类节目的信息有可能影响公众的偏好,但我们认为,这种影响可能会因信息的内容及其与现有意识形态信仰的对应关系而有所不同。利用《合作国会选举研究》中嵌入的原始调查实验,并通过亚马逊的土耳其机器人,我们分析了意识形态与福利计划之间的关系如何随着有关该计划的不同类型的负面信息以及对政策设计的不同描述而变化。我们发现,与保守派相比,有关福利不足的信息对自由派的福利支持有更大的负面影响,但自由派和保守派可能同样关注欺诈和低效率。有关政策设计的其他信息具有预期的条件效应:州(相对于联邦)资助和短期福利限制对保守派比自由派更有吸引力。
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引用次数: 0
Intraparty Republican Factionalism as Identity in the Modern American South 作为现代美国南方身份认同的党内共和党派系主义
3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-16 DOI: 10.1177/1532673x231206140
Christopher A. Cooper, Scott H. Huffmon, H. Gibbs Knotts, Seth C. McKee
Party factions are central to our understanding of American politics, but what role do party factions play within the electorate? With an August 2022 survey of the American South, we investigate factions within the modern GOP. We find evidence that faction identities overlap, as most Republicans hold some degree of identification with multiple factions. We also employ multivariate analyses to show that, despite evidence of overlap, Make America Great Again (MAGA) identifiers hold distinguishable opinions on President Trump and a variety of election issues. This research demonstrates the importance of factions within the southern Republican electorate and argues that factions can be an identity, representing a new way to conceive of intraparty factions in American politics.
政党派系是我们理解美国政治的核心,但是政党派系在选民中扮演什么角色呢?通过2022年8月对美国南部的调查,我们调查了现代共和党内部的派系。我们发现了派系认同重叠的证据,因为大多数共和党人在某种程度上认同多个派系。我们还采用多变量分析来表明,尽管有重叠的证据,但“让美国再次伟大”(MAGA)标识符对特朗普总统和各种选举问题持有不同的看法。本研究证明了南方共和党选民中派系的重要性,并认为派系可以是一种身份,代表了一种理解美国政治中党内派系的新方式。
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引用次数: 0
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American Politics Research
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