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A game of domestic imperatives: Audience costs and conflict avoidance 国内需求的游戏:观众成本和冲突避免
IF 2.1 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-02-23 DOI: 10.1177/07388942231153598
B. D. de Mesquita
I propose an audience costs game with considerations added from selectorate theory. We see that winning coalition and selectorate size have competing effects on conflict choices in an audience costs setting. Large coalition regimes face lower audience costs than non-democracies, making it harder for them to commit to war. But larger selectorates increase the value of office, making conflict escalation more attractive. Coalition effects dominate when interacted with selectorate size. Evidence from 1816–2014 supports the game's implications. The results indicate that both threat initiation and dispute resolution are better predicted by focusing on domestic, leader-specific variables.
我提出了一个受众成本游戏,并从选择性理论中加入了考虑因素。我们看到,在受众成本的背景下,获胜的联盟和选区规模对冲突选择具有竞争性影响。与非民主国家相比,大型联合政权面临着更低的受众成本,这使它们更难投入战争。但更大的选举人增加了办公室的价值,使冲突升级更具吸引力。当与选区规模相互作用时,联盟效应占主导地位。1816-2014年的证据支持了游戏的含义。结果表明,通过关注国内领导人特有的变量,可以更好地预测威胁的发起和争端的解决。
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引用次数: 0
Private military and security companies and human rights abuses: The impact of CEOs’ military background 私营军事和保安公司与侵犯人权:首席执行官军事背景的影响
IF 2.1 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-02-21 DOI: 10.1177/07388942231155396
Elizabeth Radziszewski
This study examines how military background of chief executive officers (CEOs) of private military and security companies (PMSCs) that intervened in Iraq from 2003 to 2019 affected the frequency with which companies committed human rights abuses. My findings show that PMSCs with CEOs who served in the military, for any regime type, are more likely to commit a high number of human rights abuses than companies led by CEOs without service experience. The risk is higher for PMSCs with CEOs who served in the Navy and lowest for CEOs with experience in the Air Force. The risk increases when ex-military CEOs lead private rather than publicly traded companies. The study contributes novel data on military service of CEOs for international PMSCs that were present in Iraq. The data reports on the type of governing system where CEOs served, their service branch, and whether they graduated from military academies/colleges.
本研究调查了2003年至2019年在伊拉克进行干预的私营军事和安保公司(PMSCs)首席执行官的军事背景如何影响公司侵犯人权的频率。我的研究结果表明,与没有服役经验的首席执行官领导的公司相比,拥有服兵役经历的首席执行官的私营军事服务公司更有可能犯下大量侵犯人权的行为。首席执行官曾在海军服役的私营军事服务公司的风险更高,而拥有空军经验的首席执行官的风险最低。当退役的首席执行官领导私人公司而不是上市公司时,风险会增加。该研究提供了有关驻伊拉克国际私营军事服务公司首席执行官服兵役情况的新数据。这些数据报告了首席执行官所服务的治理系统类型、服务部门以及他们是否毕业于军事院校。
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引用次数: 0
Why don’t democracies fight each other? The role of territorial issues 为什么民主国家不相互争斗?领土问题的作用
IF 2.1 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-02-14 DOI: 10.1177/07388942231153333
Andrew P. Owsiak, John A. Vasquez
Why don't democracies fight each other? Since discovering this empirical regularity, scholars have assumed that the answer must lie with regime type (i.e. democracy). Our paper provides and tests an alternative explanation: the territorial explanation of war, which stresses grievances and argues that territorial issues incentivize states to resort to war more often than disagreements over other, non-territorial issues. We show that democracies do not generally have territorial militarized interstate disputes (MIDs) or the territorial claims that would produce territorial MIDs. Democracies are peaceful because they lack the most dangerous grievances in the international system.
为什么民主国家不互相争斗?由于发现了这种经验规律,学者们认为答案一定在于政体类型(即民主)。我们的论文提供并检验了另一种解释:战争的领土解释,它强调不满,并认为领土问题比其他非领土问题上的分歧更能激励国家诉诸战争。我们表明,民主国家通常没有领土军事化的州际争端(MIDs)或领土要求,将产生领土的MIDs。民主国家是和平的,因为它们没有国际体系中最危险的不满。
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引用次数: 0
Lethal aid and human security: The effects of US security assistance on civilian harm in low- and middle-income countries 致命援助与人类安全:美国安全援助对中低收入国家平民伤害的影响
IF 2.1 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-02-14 DOI: 10.1177/07388942231155161
P. Sullivan
Since 2001, there has been a dramatic increase in the amount of US military aid flowing to foreign governments. What is the impact of this aid on human security? Drawing on recent research on the principal–agent relationship between state leaders and security sector actors, I develop a theory of the impact of security assistance on the use of deadly force against civilians. Using methods to account for the endogeneity of aid allocations, I find that the impact of security assistance on state violence varies based on the type of assistance provided and the institutional environment in the recipient state.
自2001年以来,流向外国政府的美国军事援助数量急剧增加。这种援助对人类安全的影响是什么?根据最近对国家领导人和安全部门参与者之间的委托代理关系的研究,我发展了一种安全援助对对平民使用致命武力的影响的理论。使用方法来解释援助分配的内质性,我发现安全援助对国家暴力的影响因所提供援助的类型和受援国的制度环境而异。
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引用次数: 0
Beyond deterrence: Uncertain stability in the nuclear era 超越威慑:核时代不确定的稳定
IF 2.1 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-02-10 DOI: 10.1177/07388942221149670
Kyungkook Kang, J. Kugler
This paper identifies profound contradictions within and across nuclear deterrence strategies that evolved in response to the proliferation and modernization of nuclear weapons. To reconcile theory with practice, we summarize the theoretical assumptions and implications of nuclear strategy. Informed by these discussions, we develop a decision-theoretic model of deterrence based on power transition theory. We explore conditions for the stability of deterrence and link outcomes to policy decisions. The conditions for conflict emerge when a dissatisfied nuclear nation is threatened with conventional loss, when conventional and nuclear parity is achieved and if dissatisfied non-state actors acquire even minimal nuclear capabilities.
本文指出了为应对核武器扩散和现代化而演变的核威慑战略内部和之间的深刻矛盾。为了使理论与实践相协调,我们总结了核战略的理论假设和含义。在这些讨论的基础上,我们建立了一个基于权力转移理论的威慑决策理论模型。我们探索威慑稳定的条件,并将结果与政策决策联系起来。当一个不满的核国家受到常规武器损失的威胁,当实现常规武器和核武器的对等,如果不满的非国家行为者获得了最低限度的核能力,冲突的条件就会出现。
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引用次数: 0
The limits of shame: UN shaming, NGO repression, and women's protests 羞耻的极限:联合国羞辱、非政府组织镇压和妇女抗议
IF 2.1 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-02-10 DOI: 10.1177/07388942231153804
Bimal Adhikari, J. King, L. Santoso
Within the human rights literature, a growing number of studies have focused on the factors that explain engagement in protests. Most prior studies of this type give little or no consideration to the effect of these factors on gender. Recently, though, some scholars have begun focusing on the gender dimension, exploring why women engage in protests specifically. In this study, we examine a previously unexplored factor, that of naming and shaming by the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC), and its effect on the likelihood of women's protest activities. We argue that UNHRC shaming increases the likelihood of women engaging in protests. Moreover, given its preeminent position within the UN, UNHRC shaming should be much more effective in mobilizing women in comparison with shaming by non-governmental organizations (NGOs). However, in countries where governments actively repress NGOs, the effect of UNHRC shaming on women's protests should be smaller.
在人权文献中,越来越多的研究集中在解释参与抗议活动的因素上。大多数先前的这类研究很少或根本没有考虑这些因素对性别的影响。然而,最近,一些学者开始关注性别层面,探究女性为什么会专门参与抗议活动。在这项研究中,我们研究了一个以前未被探索的因素,即联合国人权理事会(UNHRC)的点名和羞辱,以及它对妇女抗议活动可能性的影响。我们认为,联合国人权委员会的羞辱增加了妇女参与抗议活动的可能性。此外,鉴于联合国人权委员会在联合国的卓越地位,与非政府组织的羞辱行为相比,羞辱行为在动员妇女方面应该更有效。然而,在政府积极镇压非政府组织的国家,联合国人权委员会的羞辱对妇女抗议的影响应该较小。
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引用次数: 0
Exogenous factors and the crisis bargaining process 外部因素与危机谈判过程
IF 2.1 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-02-07 DOI: 10.1177/07388942231153332
Vesna Danilovic, Joe Clare
We examine whether bargaining behavior alters the initially expected effects of exogenous factors, such as power balance, issues, and domestic regimes, influencing crisis outcomes. Our argument is that, instead of weakening threat credibility as assumed in the traditional advocacy for firmness, mixing coercion with accommodation optimally allows states to reach an outcome within the bargaining range shaped by exogenous factors. After establishing causal mechanisms, we test our hypotheses over the 1918−2015 period. The findings validate our expectations that intransigence exacerbates crisis stability even under favorable exogenous conditions whereas mixed bargaining mitigates the effects of unfavorable ones.
我们研究了讨价还价行为是否改变了影响危机结果的外部因素的最初预期影响,如权力平衡、问题和国内制度。我们的论点是,与其像传统的坚定主张那样削弱威胁的可信度,不如将胁迫与通融相结合,使各国能够在外部因素形成的谈判范围内达成最佳结果。在建立因果机制后,我们在1918年至2015年期间检验了我们的假设。研究结果验证了我们的预期,即即使在有利的外部条件下,不妥协也会加剧危机稳定,而混合谈判会减轻不利条件的影响。
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引用次数: 0
The conditions for war and peace in interstate crises: An Introduction to this special issue 国家间危机中战争与和平的条件:本特刊导论
IF 2.1 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-02-02 DOI: 10.1177/07388942231153335
Vesna Danilovic
The articles in this special issue were originally presented at a conference held at the University of Buffalo, SUNY. As the purpose of the conference was to honor its distinguished professor, Frank C. Zagare, it included a number of his past and present associates, ranging from his early mentor, research collaborators and former students to career-long colleagues. While the participants reflected Zagare’s career path, the thematic and methodological diversity in their papers showed the common arc that brought them together with their honoree throughout his career—an eversearching work toward solving the puzzles of war and peace. This goal is indeed shared with our larger community gathered around the Peace Science Society (International) and its journal Conflict Management and Peace Science. Not surprisingly then, the conference participants included no fewer than five of the Society’s former presidents. Perhaps the best starting point to this issue is Zagare’s (1990) distinction between “procedural” and “instrumental” rationality, which effectively removed the fault lines between domestic decision-theoretic frameworks and strategic rational choice models. The path was set toward dispelling the long-standing chasm between domestic and strategic approaches, as demonstrated in several contributions to this issue. The decision-making framework was integrated into Zagare’s own work, both in formal-theoretic (e.g., Kugler and Zagare 1990) and detailed historical analyses (Zagare 2011). In their logical reexamination of deterrence, for example, Kugler and Zagare (1990) showed the critical role of a leader’s risk orientation under an already precarious condition of power transition. Risk avoidance and risk acceptance are also featured as critical factors in the formal stylization by Lisa J. Carlson and Raymond Dacey in this issue. Depending on a leader’s risk attitude and the particulars of the decision problem in crisis situations, especially whether a threat can potentially incur greater, moderate or lower costs, their model specifies the conditions under which inexperienced decision-makers are more or less likely than experienced ones to defy the threat. Given the contradictory empirical findings about the risk behavior of leaders based on their foreign policy (in) experience, their study demonstrates great potential in the use of formal rigor to resolve empirical
这期特刊中的文章最初是在纽约州立大学布法罗大学举行的一次会议上发表的。由于会议的目的是向杰出的教授Frank C.Zagare致敬,会议包括了他过去和现在的一些同事,从他早期的导师、研究合作者、以前的学生到职业生涯中的同事。虽然参与者反映了扎加雷的职业道路,但他们论文中主题和方法的多样性表明,在扎加雷整个职业生涯中,他们与获奖者走到了一起,这是一项不断探索战争与和平之谜的工作。这一目标确实与我们聚集在和平科学学会(国际)及其期刊《冲突管理与和平科学》周围的广大社区共享。毫不奇怪,会议参与者包括不少于五位协会前主席。也许这个问题最好的出发点是Zagare(1990)对“程序理性”和“工具理性”的区分,它有效地消除了国内决策理论框架和战略理性选择模型之间的断层线。正如对这一问题的几项贡献所表明的那样,这条道路旨在消除国内方法和战略方法之间长期存在的鸿沟。决策框架被整合到Zagare自己的工作中,包括形式理论(例如,Kugler和Zagare 1990)和详细的历史分析(Zagare 2011)。例如,Kugler和Zagare(1990)在他们对威慑的逻辑重新审视中,展示了在权力过渡已经不稳定的条件下,领导人的风险导向的关键作用。风险规避和风险接受也是Lisa J.Carlson和Raymond Dacey在本期正式风格化中的关键因素。根据领导者的风险态度和危机情况下决策问题的具体情况,特别是威胁是否可能产生更大、适度或更低的成本,他们的模型规定了缺乏经验的决策者比有经验的决策人更有可能或更少地对抗威胁的条件。鉴于基于外交政策经验对领导人风险行为的矛盾实证研究结果,他们的研究表明,使用形式严谨性来解决实证问题具有巨大潜力
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引用次数: 0
The problem with accidental war 意外战争的问题
IF 2.1 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-02-02 DOI: 10.1177/07388942221149672
S. Quackenbush
Many theories of international conflict are based on the premise that war can occur by accident. The basic idea of accidental war is that crisis situations can spiral out of control, leading to the outbreak of a war despite no one having decided to go to war. Although World War I is often claimed to be the prime example of such an accidental war, modern research suggests that it began as a result of deliberate choices, not by accident. Nonetheless, accidental war continues to be used as an important building block in many theories, including theories of deterrence, bargaining, and the spiral model. In this article, I examine the validity of the assumption that wars can begin by accident, as well as the implications that the lack of accidental wars has for international relations theory.
许多国际冲突理论都是以战争可能偶然发生为前提的。意外战争的基本理念是,危机局势可能会失控,导致战争爆发,尽管没有人决定开战。尽管第一次世界大战经常被认为是这种偶然战争的典型例子,但现代研究表明,它是由深思熟虑的选择而非偶然造成的。尽管如此,意外战争仍然被用作许多理论的重要组成部分,包括威慑理论、讨价还价理论和螺旋模型。在这篇文章中,我考察了战争可以偶然开始的假设的有效性,以及缺乏偶然战争对国际关系理论的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Preface 前言
IF 2.1 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-02-01 DOI: 10.1177/07388942231153334
F. Zagare
The conference on “The Scientific Study of Interstate Conflict” that was held at the University at Buffalo in the latter part of October 2021 was clearly the highlight of my career. But it was much more than a personal honor. The papers that were presented, most of which are included in this special issue of Conflict Management and Peace Science, constitute incontrovertible proof of the important contributions made by the membership of the Peace Science Society (International) over the past 60 years or so to our understanding of political conflict and its resolution. It is noteworthy that among the authors of the presented papers are five past presidents of PSS(I): Steven J. Brams, Raymond Dacey, D. Marc Kilgour, Jacek Kugler, and John Vasquez. When I began my professional career many years ago, there was but a small vanguard of scholars who approached the field scientifically, either quantitatively or formally. Yet that is no longer the case as the papers included in this special issue obviously demonstrate. Much more gratifying, then, than the personal honor bestowed on me by the willingness of my colleagues and friends to travel to Buffalo, New York in the middle of a pandemic was the realization that, in some small way, I have been part of the transformation of our field that Walter Isard and a small group of like-minded scholars envisioned in 1964 when they joined together to formally approve the constitution of what is now the most important professional organization devoted to “the empirical testing of hypotheses and theories and the employment of scientific approaches for the development of conflict management procedures”. It has been a very rewarding ride.
2021年10月下旬在布法罗大学举行的“国家间冲突的科学研究”会议显然是我职业生涯的亮点。但这不仅仅是个人的荣誉。所提交的论文,其中大部分收录在本期《冲突管理与和平科学》特刊中,无可争议地证明了和平科学学会(国际)成员在过去60年左右的时间里对我们理解政治冲突及其解决办法所作的重要贡献。值得注意的是,在提交论文的作者中,有五位PSS(I)的前任总裁:Steven J. Brams, Raymond Dacey, D. Marc Kilgour, Jacek Kugler和John Vasquez。当我多年前开始我的职业生涯时,只有一小部分学者从定量或形式上科学地研究这个领域。然而,正如本期特刊所载的论文所明显表明的那样,情况已不再如此。我的同事和朋友们愿意在大流行期间前往纽约布法罗,这给了我个人荣誉,比这更令人欣慰的是,我意识到,在某种程度上,1964年,沃尔特·伊萨尔(Walter Isard)和一小群志同道合的学者设想了我们这个领域的变革,当时他们联合起来正式批准了现在最重要的专业组织的成立,该组织致力于“对假设和理论进行实证检验,并采用科学方法开发冲突管理程序”。这是一段非常值得的旅程。
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引用次数: 0
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Conflict Management and Peace Science
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