Pub Date : 2024-02-12DOI: 10.1177/07388942241229283
E. Skaar, Adriana Rudling, Lisa-Marie Måseidvåg Selvik, Eric Wiebelhaus-Brahm, Jemima García-Godos
We know little about the processes surrounding the formulation and implementation of truth commission recommendations (TCRs). This article introduces the Beyond Words database, which systematically identifies and tracks the formulation and implementation processes behind 960 recommendations from 13 truth commissions established across Latin America between 1983 and 2012. The database offers information on factors shaping TCR formulation, identifies important characteristics of recommendations and assesses the level of implementation for each. We describe our methodology and the resultant database and examine findings linking TCR characteristics and contextual factors to levels of implementation. Overall, the implementation record is better than those previously considered.
{"title":"The implementation of truth commission recommendations: Exploring the ‘beyond words’ database for Latin America","authors":"E. Skaar, Adriana Rudling, Lisa-Marie Måseidvåg Selvik, Eric Wiebelhaus-Brahm, Jemima García-Godos","doi":"10.1177/07388942241229283","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942241229283","url":null,"abstract":"We know little about the processes surrounding the formulation and implementation of truth commission recommendations (TCRs). This article introduces the Beyond Words database, which systematically identifies and tracks the formulation and implementation processes behind 960 recommendations from 13 truth commissions established across Latin America between 1983 and 2012. The database offers information on factors shaping TCR formulation, identifies important characteristics of recommendations and assesses the level of implementation for each. We describe our methodology and the resultant database and examine findings linking TCR characteristics and contextual factors to levels of implementation. Overall, the implementation record is better than those previously considered.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139783925","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-02-05DOI: 10.1177/07388942231220008
R. Hlatky, Joshua Landry
Ethnically motivated domestic pressure can incentivize leaders to support co-ethnics via military cooperation during international crises. When a leader requires the support of an ethnic group to retain office, she may face pressure to support foreign co-ethnics involved in an international crisis. Supporting co-ethnics can bolster a leader domestically, but constraints on the executive limit a leader's ability to respond to ethnically motivated pressure. Using data on 257 international crises from 1949–2001 and two case studies, we find robust evidence for the conditional relationship between co-ethnicity, the domestic political salience of ethnicity, executive constraints, and the likelihood of military coalition formation.
{"title":"Ethnic preferences, domestic audiences and military coalition formation","authors":"R. Hlatky, Joshua Landry","doi":"10.1177/07388942231220008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942231220008","url":null,"abstract":"Ethnically motivated domestic pressure can incentivize leaders to support co-ethnics via military cooperation during international crises. When a leader requires the support of an ethnic group to retain office, she may face pressure to support foreign co-ethnics involved in an international crisis. Supporting co-ethnics can bolster a leader domestically, but constraints on the executive limit a leader's ability to respond to ethnically motivated pressure. Using data on 257 international crises from 1949–2001 and two case studies, we find robust evidence for the conditional relationship between co-ethnicity, the domestic political salience of ethnicity, executive constraints, and the likelihood of military coalition formation.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139862576","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-02-05DOI: 10.1177/07388942231220008
R. Hlatky, Joshua Landry
Ethnically motivated domestic pressure can incentivize leaders to support co-ethnics via military cooperation during international crises. When a leader requires the support of an ethnic group to retain office, she may face pressure to support foreign co-ethnics involved in an international crisis. Supporting co-ethnics can bolster a leader domestically, but constraints on the executive limit a leader's ability to respond to ethnically motivated pressure. Using data on 257 international crises from 1949–2001 and two case studies, we find robust evidence for the conditional relationship between co-ethnicity, the domestic political salience of ethnicity, executive constraints, and the likelihood of military coalition formation.
{"title":"Ethnic preferences, domestic audiences and military coalition formation","authors":"R. Hlatky, Joshua Landry","doi":"10.1177/07388942231220008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942231220008","url":null,"abstract":"Ethnically motivated domestic pressure can incentivize leaders to support co-ethnics via military cooperation during international crises. When a leader requires the support of an ethnic group to retain office, she may face pressure to support foreign co-ethnics involved in an international crisis. Supporting co-ethnics can bolster a leader domestically, but constraints on the executive limit a leader's ability to respond to ethnically motivated pressure. Using data on 257 international crises from 1949–2001 and two case studies, we find robust evidence for the conditional relationship between co-ethnicity, the domestic political salience of ethnicity, executive constraints, and the likelihood of military coalition formation.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139802344","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-10DOI: 10.1177/07388942231223422
Tobias Risse
Conventional arms control imposes the costs and benefits for states in civil wars: it restricts their own armament and that of rebel groups. I argue that the benefits outweigh the costs because states design conventional arms control measures that primarily curb rebels’ armament. I investigate these arguments through regression analyses of United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) voting records and a content analysis of UNGA speeches. While I find a positive relationship between civil wars and support for conventional arms control in the aggregate, I also show that states in civil wars consider both the benefits and the costs of arms control.
{"title":"Civil war and state support for conventional arms control","authors":"Tobias Risse","doi":"10.1177/07388942231223422","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942231223422","url":null,"abstract":"Conventional arms control imposes the costs and benefits for states in civil wars: it restricts their own armament and that of rebel groups. I argue that the benefits outweigh the costs because states design conventional arms control measures that primarily curb rebels’ armament. I investigate these arguments through regression analyses of United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) voting records and a content analysis of UNGA speeches. While I find a positive relationship between civil wars and support for conventional arms control in the aggregate, I also show that states in civil wars consider both the benefits and the costs of arms control.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139535017","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-03DOI: 10.1177/07388942231222213
Sweta Sen
This paper explores rebel legitimacy building by investigating rebel network formation during civil wars. Through a longitudinal study of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, it examines various mechanisms through which a non-state armed group (NSAG) embellishes and enhances its legitimacy among domestic and international support networks. The research also theorizes the complex interaction between domestic and international legitimacy, when and why NSAGs prioritizes politically prestigious network over initial resource-based one, and the impact of the shift on rebel behavior. The causal process explores how rebels’ legitimacy consideration affects their lobbying and coalition-building efforts.
{"title":"Rebel network theory: The case of Moro Islamic Liberation Front","authors":"Sweta Sen","doi":"10.1177/07388942231222213","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942231222213","url":null,"abstract":"This paper explores rebel legitimacy building by investigating rebel network formation during civil wars. Through a longitudinal study of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, it examines various mechanisms through which a non-state armed group (NSAG) embellishes and enhances its legitimacy among domestic and international support networks. The research also theorizes the complex interaction between domestic and international legitimacy, when and why NSAGs prioritizes politically prestigious network over initial resource-based one, and the impact of the shift on rebel behavior. The causal process explores how rebels’ legitimacy consideration affects their lobbying and coalition-building efforts.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139388951","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-10DOI: 10.1177/07388942231216729
Joshua Eastin, E. K. Gade, Michael Gabbay
Why do militant groups decide to escalate or deescalate their use of violence in conflict? Examining the case of the “Troubles” in Northern Ireland, we analyze groups that adopt violence as a political strategy and evaluate factors that influence its application. To do so, we adopt a novel empirical approach to the study of militant groups. Drawn from information science, this approach enables estimation of variable influence and uncertainty within structured case studies, and is thus ideal for topics such as militant decision-making where systematic data collection is difficult.
{"title":"Evaluating militant decision-making with information science: The Irish republican movement during the “Troubles”","authors":"Joshua Eastin, E. K. Gade, Michael Gabbay","doi":"10.1177/07388942231216729","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942231216729","url":null,"abstract":"Why do militant groups decide to escalate or deescalate their use of violence in conflict? Examining the case of the “Troubles” in Northern Ireland, we analyze groups that adopt violence as a political strategy and evaluate factors that influence its application. To do so, we adopt a novel empirical approach to the study of militant groups. Drawn from information science, this approach enables estimation of variable influence and uncertainty within structured case studies, and is thus ideal for topics such as militant decision-making where systematic data collection is difficult.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138584722","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-06DOI: 10.1177/07388942231209952
Benjamin Jones, Eleonora Mattiacci, Timothy Nordstrom
What is the effect of nuclear latency on states’ conflict behaviors? Defined as the ability to produce fissile material without the actual possession of nuclear weapons, nuclear latency is much more common in the international system than nuclear weapons are. Yet present studies might have underestimated its impact on conflict. We argue that, given its ambiguous nature as a dual-use technology, nuclear latency has the potential to significantly alter the effect of leader type on conflict. In particular, while conventional wisdom about hawks and doves suggests that the former should be more prone to conflict than the latter, nuclear latency blurs the distinction between leader's types. Bridging together studies of nuclear latency and leader type, we study how nuclear latency shapes the impact of leader type on the propensity of initiating conflict or being targeted. We find that in the absence of latency, hawkish leaders are more likely to initiate disputes than dovish leaders. However, latency muddies the waters. Thus, leader characteristics does not affect dispute initiation for latent states.
{"title":"How leader's type shapes the effect of nuclear latency on dispute involvement","authors":"Benjamin Jones, Eleonora Mattiacci, Timothy Nordstrom","doi":"10.1177/07388942231209952","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942231209952","url":null,"abstract":"What is the effect of nuclear latency on states’ conflict behaviors? Defined as the ability to produce fissile material without the actual possession of nuclear weapons, nuclear latency is much more common in the international system than nuclear weapons are. Yet present studies might have underestimated its impact on conflict. We argue that, given its ambiguous nature as a dual-use technology, nuclear latency has the potential to significantly alter the effect of leader type on conflict. In particular, while conventional wisdom about hawks and doves suggests that the former should be more prone to conflict than the latter, nuclear latency blurs the distinction between leader's types. Bridging together studies of nuclear latency and leader type, we study how nuclear latency shapes the impact of leader type on the propensity of initiating conflict or being targeted. We find that in the absence of latency, hawkish leaders are more likely to initiate disputes than dovish leaders. However, latency muddies the waters. Thus, leader characteristics does not affect dispute initiation for latent states.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138596086","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-03DOI: 10.1177/07388942231216733
Masaki Hata, Takeshi Iida, Yasuhiro Izumikawa, Tongfi Kim
How does a great power ally's demonstration of toughness toward a common adversary influence the sense of security among its weaker ally's citizens? The literature on the effects of standing firm against adversaries has significantly evolved in recent years, but empirical evidence is scarce, especially at the mass level. By taking advantage of the unique opportunity of the 2019 North Korea–US Hanoi summit, we examine the conditions under which a powerful alliance partner's firm and uncompromising posture toward a common adversary reassures the citizens of a junior ally. Based on alliance literature, we hypothesize that a patron's hawkish policy reassures its protégé when the protégé fears abandonment more than entrapment and that the more a citizen of the protégé fears abandonment, the more reassuring the patron's hawkish policy is to the individual. Our analysis of online surveys conducted before and after the summit using a quota sample of the Japanese electorate shows that the level of threat perception is significantly lower in the post-summit sample than in the pre-summit one, especially among the respondents who fear abandonment by the US. We thus conclude that President Trump's decision not to compromise with North Korea on its nuclear programs alleviated Japanese citizens’ concerns about US alliance commitments to Japan, improving their security perception. This study is significant in showing that a patron state's policy toward a common adversary can greatly influence the perception of its ally's citizens as well as its government.
{"title":"Does a patron state's hardline posture reassure the public in an allied state?","authors":"Masaki Hata, Takeshi Iida, Yasuhiro Izumikawa, Tongfi Kim","doi":"10.1177/07388942231216733","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942231216733","url":null,"abstract":"How does a great power ally's demonstration of toughness toward a common adversary influence the sense of security among its weaker ally's citizens? The literature on the effects of standing firm against adversaries has significantly evolved in recent years, but empirical evidence is scarce, especially at the mass level. By taking advantage of the unique opportunity of the 2019 North Korea–US Hanoi summit, we examine the conditions under which a powerful alliance partner's firm and uncompromising posture toward a common adversary reassures the citizens of a junior ally. Based on alliance literature, we hypothesize that a patron's hawkish policy reassures its protégé when the protégé fears abandonment more than entrapment and that the more a citizen of the protégé fears abandonment, the more reassuring the patron's hawkish policy is to the individual. Our analysis of online surveys conducted before and after the summit using a quota sample of the Japanese electorate shows that the level of threat perception is significantly lower in the post-summit sample than in the pre-summit one, especially among the respondents who fear abandonment by the US. We thus conclude that President Trump's decision not to compromise with North Korea on its nuclear programs alleviated Japanese citizens’ concerns about US alliance commitments to Japan, improving their security perception. This study is significant in showing that a patron state's policy toward a common adversary can greatly influence the perception of its ally's citizens as well as its government.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138606257","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-08DOI: 10.1177/07388942231210298
Jeff Carter
Research on political leaders has reshaped our understanding of international relations over the last 25 years. Much of the most influential contemporary research on leaders resides firmly in the peace science tradition, in terms of its substantive focus on interstate conflict processes and theoretical and methodological approaches to generating and empirically assessing expectations about politics. The articles in this special issue build upon this work to provide us with new insights into leaders’ influence on world politics.
{"title":"Introduction to special issue: New research on leaders and peace science","authors":"Jeff Carter","doi":"10.1177/07388942231210298","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942231210298","url":null,"abstract":"Research on political leaders has reshaped our understanding of international relations over the last 25 years. Much of the most influential contemporary research on leaders resides firmly in the peace science tradition, in terms of its substantive focus on interstate conflict processes and theoretical and methodological approaches to generating and empirically assessing expectations about politics. The articles in this special issue build upon this work to provide us with new insights into leaders’ influence on world politics.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135429965","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-03DOI: 10.1177/07388942231210295
Giacomo Chiozza, Lena Khalifa
Where were coups more likely to occur in the US world order? The US has occasionally resorted to coups to realign the foreign policy preferences in allied nations with its own preferences. This article explains why coups were more likely in countries where the leaders enjoyed an incumbency advantage that thwarted the ability of potential successors to gain power through regular channels of leadership turnover. That was more likely to be the case in presidential than in parliamentary democracies, and more likely in personalistic, military, or single-party regimes than in autocracies with multiparty legislatures.
{"title":"The harsh face of the empire by invitation: Coups in the US world order","authors":"Giacomo Chiozza, Lena Khalifa","doi":"10.1177/07388942231210295","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942231210295","url":null,"abstract":"Where were coups more likely to occur in the US world order? The US has occasionally resorted to coups to realign the foreign policy preferences in allied nations with its own preferences. This article explains why coups were more likely in countries where the leaders enjoyed an incumbency advantage that thwarted the ability of potential successors to gain power through regular channels of leadership turnover. That was more likely to be the case in presidential than in parliamentary democracies, and more likely in personalistic, military, or single-party regimes than in autocracies with multiparty legislatures.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135821686","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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