Pub Date : 2024-04-11DOI: 10.1177/07388942241238583
Işıl İdrisoğlu, William Spaniel
This paper explores the role of asymmetric information as a cause of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. In the classic bargaining model of war, negotiations break down when one side privately believes that it is sufficiently more likely perform better in battle than the other side expects. There is strong evidence that this mechanism was at play on the eve of the invasion. Chronic problems with Russian civil–military institutions created both an army unprepared for the conflict and a lack of awareness of this within the Kremlin. In contrast, Ukraine had reports of these problems and also had private information regarding its own resolve. Consequently, the Kremlin's demands on the eve of the conflict exceeded what Ukraine was willing to concede. Russia invaded as a result.
{"title":"Information problems and Russia's invasion of Ukraine","authors":"Işıl İdrisoğlu, William Spaniel","doi":"10.1177/07388942241238583","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942241238583","url":null,"abstract":"This paper explores the role of asymmetric information as a cause of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. In the classic bargaining model of war, negotiations break down when one side privately believes that it is sufficiently more likely perform better in battle than the other side expects. There is strong evidence that this mechanism was at play on the eve of the invasion. Chronic problems with Russian civil–military institutions created both an army unprepared for the conflict and a lack of awareness of this within the Kremlin. In contrast, Ukraine had reports of these problems and also had private information regarding its own resolve. Consequently, the Kremlin's demands on the eve of the conflict exceeded what Ukraine was willing to concede. Russia invaded as a result.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":"56 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140569814","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-03-25DOI: 10.1177/07388942241238649
Rizwan Asghar
Do nuclear weapons deter aggression or make states more likely to engage in conflict? I argue that we can explain whether and when nuclear capabilities increase state belligerence by examining the role of domestic institutions that shape state security policy. This study provides evidence that nuclear weapons have an emboldening effect on conflict initiation by elevating state capacity but that whether this emboldening translates into higher levels of belligerence depends on the extent to which civilians (relative to the military) control the state, an important dimension of state decision-making. Results provide suggestive evidence in support of my argument. I illustrate this mechanism using the case of Pakistan (1972–2010).
{"title":"Nuclear weapons and interstate conflict behavior: The moderating influence of civil–military relations","authors":"Rizwan Asghar","doi":"10.1177/07388942241238649","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942241238649","url":null,"abstract":"Do nuclear weapons deter aggression or make states more likely to engage in conflict? I argue that we can explain whether and when nuclear capabilities increase state belligerence by examining the role of domestic institutions that shape state security policy. This study provides evidence that nuclear weapons have an emboldening effect on conflict initiation by elevating state capacity but that whether this emboldening translates into higher levels of belligerence depends on the extent to which civilians (relative to the military) control the state, an important dimension of state decision-making. Results provide suggestive evidence in support of my argument. I illustrate this mechanism using the case of Pakistan (1972–2010).","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":"233 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140300192","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-03-08DOI: 10.1177/07388942241235478
Robert G Blanton, Dursun Peksen
While a great deal of scholarship has been devoted to peacekeeping operations (PKOs), relatively few works have examined their economic effects. Toward better understanding this area of inquiry, we examine the impact of PKOs on the growth of the shadow economies of host countries. We posit that the conflict cessation brought about by peacekeeping missions, as well as their stimulative economic effects, will reduce the growth of the shadow sector. However, these impacts may not be sustainable after the conclusion of the mission. Testing these linkages across 145 countries for over 40 years, we find significant support for these dynamics.
{"title":"Peacekeeping operations and shadow economy growth in host countries","authors":"Robert G Blanton, Dursun Peksen","doi":"10.1177/07388942241235478","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942241235478","url":null,"abstract":"While a great deal of scholarship has been devoted to peacekeeping operations (PKOs), relatively few works have examined their economic effects. Toward better understanding this area of inquiry, we examine the impact of PKOs on the growth of the shadow economies of host countries. We posit that the conflict cessation brought about by peacekeeping missions, as well as their stimulative economic effects, will reduce the growth of the shadow sector. However, these impacts may not be sustainable after the conclusion of the mission. Testing these linkages across 145 countries for over 40 years, we find significant support for these dynamics.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140072347","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-03-04DOI: 10.1177/07388942241234559
Tyler Kustra, Patrick James
Immigrants have a substantial impact on US foreign policy: doubling the proportion of the American voters who were born in a country yields a 4% increase in the probability that the United States will intervene in a crisis involving that country. This result is significant at the 1% level. Moreover, the immigrants’ level of education and income do not affect this result. Apart from unemployment and real gross domestic product growth, other quantifiable domestic and international variables, from presidential approval to trade dependency and defense pacts, do not have a statistically significant impact on American intervention.
{"title":"The importance of immigrants on American intervention in international crises","authors":"Tyler Kustra, Patrick James","doi":"10.1177/07388942241234559","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942241234559","url":null,"abstract":"Immigrants have a substantial impact on US foreign policy: doubling the proportion of the American voters who were born in a country yields a 4% increase in the probability that the United States will intervene in a crisis involving that country. This result is significant at the 1% level. Moreover, the immigrants’ level of education and income do not affect this result. Apart from unemployment and real gross domestic product growth, other quantifiable domestic and international variables, from presidential approval to trade dependency and defense pacts, do not have a statistically significant impact on American intervention.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140053954","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-03-04DOI: 10.1177/07388942241234224
Lindsey A Goldberg
International audiences view rebel groups with female combatants as more virtuous and legitimate because of gender norms regarding women and war. As actors who care about their international reputation, states often virtue-signal their support for popular humanitarian norms—norms such as promoting gender inclusivity in political processes. I argue that this performative dynamic motivates states to signal support for rebellions that include female combatants because doing so offers these states a pathway for signaling support for this international norm without requiring stronger commitments to gender equality and women's rights. I thus hypothesize that the inclusion of female combatants in rebel organizations positively corresponds with the quantity of external state support rebels receive. Specifically, I expect that these virtue-signaling motives render less costly forms of external state support more common for these groups. I statistically evaluate these claims and contribute new insights on gendered, transnational civil war dynamics.
{"title":"International virtue signaling: How female combatants shape state support for armed rebellion","authors":"Lindsey A Goldberg","doi":"10.1177/07388942241234224","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942241234224","url":null,"abstract":"International audiences view rebel groups with female combatants as more virtuous and legitimate because of gender norms regarding women and war. As actors who care about their international reputation, states often virtue-signal their support for popular humanitarian norms—norms such as promoting gender inclusivity in political processes. I argue that this performative dynamic motivates states to signal support for rebellions that include female combatants because doing so offers these states a pathway for signaling support for this international norm without requiring stronger commitments to gender equality and women's rights. I thus hypothesize that the inclusion of female combatants in rebel organizations positively corresponds with the quantity of external state support rebels receive. Specifically, I expect that these virtue-signaling motives render less costly forms of external state support more common for these groups. I statistically evaluate these claims and contribute new insights on gendered, transnational civil war dynamics.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":"81 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140053938","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-03DOI: 10.1177/07388942231222213
Sweta Sen
This paper explores rebel legitimacy building by investigating rebel network formation during civil wars. Through a longitudinal study of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, it examines various mechanisms through which a non-state armed group (NSAG) embellishes and enhances its legitimacy among domestic and international support networks. The research also theorizes the complex interaction between domestic and international legitimacy, when and why NSAGs prioritizes politically prestigious network over initial resource-based one, and the impact of the shift on rebel behavior. The causal process explores how rebels’ legitimacy consideration affects their lobbying and coalition-building efforts.
{"title":"Rebel network theory: The case of Moro Islamic Liberation Front","authors":"Sweta Sen","doi":"10.1177/07388942231222213","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942231222213","url":null,"abstract":"This paper explores rebel legitimacy building by investigating rebel network formation during civil wars. Through a longitudinal study of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, it examines various mechanisms through which a non-state armed group (NSAG) embellishes and enhances its legitimacy among domestic and international support networks. The research also theorizes the complex interaction between domestic and international legitimacy, when and why NSAGs prioritizes politically prestigious network over initial resource-based one, and the impact of the shift on rebel behavior. The causal process explores how rebels’ legitimacy consideration affects their lobbying and coalition-building efforts.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":"19 20","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139388951","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-10DOI: 10.1177/07388942231216729
Joshua Eastin, E. K. Gade, Michael Gabbay
Why do militant groups decide to escalate or deescalate their use of violence in conflict? Examining the case of the “Troubles” in Northern Ireland, we analyze groups that adopt violence as a political strategy and evaluate factors that influence its application. To do so, we adopt a novel empirical approach to the study of militant groups. Drawn from information science, this approach enables estimation of variable influence and uncertainty within structured case studies, and is thus ideal for topics such as militant decision-making where systematic data collection is difficult.
{"title":"Evaluating militant decision-making with information science: The Irish republican movement during the “Troubles”","authors":"Joshua Eastin, E. K. Gade, Michael Gabbay","doi":"10.1177/07388942231216729","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942231216729","url":null,"abstract":"Why do militant groups decide to escalate or deescalate their use of violence in conflict? Examining the case of the “Troubles” in Northern Ireland, we analyze groups that adopt violence as a political strategy and evaluate factors that influence its application. To do so, we adopt a novel empirical approach to the study of militant groups. Drawn from information science, this approach enables estimation of variable influence and uncertainty within structured case studies, and is thus ideal for topics such as militant decision-making where systematic data collection is difficult.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":"3 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138584722","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-06DOI: 10.1177/07388942231209952
Benjamin Jones, Eleonora Mattiacci, Timothy Nordstrom
What is the effect of nuclear latency on states’ conflict behaviors? Defined as the ability to produce fissile material without the actual possession of nuclear weapons, nuclear latency is much more common in the international system than nuclear weapons are. Yet present studies might have underestimated its impact on conflict. We argue that, given its ambiguous nature as a dual-use technology, nuclear latency has the potential to significantly alter the effect of leader type on conflict. In particular, while conventional wisdom about hawks and doves suggests that the former should be more prone to conflict than the latter, nuclear latency blurs the distinction between leader's types. Bridging together studies of nuclear latency and leader type, we study how nuclear latency shapes the impact of leader type on the propensity of initiating conflict or being targeted. We find that in the absence of latency, hawkish leaders are more likely to initiate disputes than dovish leaders. However, latency muddies the waters. Thus, leader characteristics does not affect dispute initiation for latent states.
{"title":"How leader's type shapes the effect of nuclear latency on dispute involvement","authors":"Benjamin Jones, Eleonora Mattiacci, Timothy Nordstrom","doi":"10.1177/07388942231209952","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942231209952","url":null,"abstract":"What is the effect of nuclear latency on states’ conflict behaviors? Defined as the ability to produce fissile material without the actual possession of nuclear weapons, nuclear latency is much more common in the international system than nuclear weapons are. Yet present studies might have underestimated its impact on conflict. We argue that, given its ambiguous nature as a dual-use technology, nuclear latency has the potential to significantly alter the effect of leader type on conflict. In particular, while conventional wisdom about hawks and doves suggests that the former should be more prone to conflict than the latter, nuclear latency blurs the distinction between leader's types. Bridging together studies of nuclear latency and leader type, we study how nuclear latency shapes the impact of leader type on the propensity of initiating conflict or being targeted. We find that in the absence of latency, hawkish leaders are more likely to initiate disputes than dovish leaders. However, latency muddies the waters. Thus, leader characteristics does not affect dispute initiation for latent states.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":"97 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138596086","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-03DOI: 10.1177/07388942231216733
Masaki Hata, Takeshi Iida, Yasuhiro Izumikawa, Tongfi Kim
How does a great power ally's demonstration of toughness toward a common adversary influence the sense of security among its weaker ally's citizens? The literature on the effects of standing firm against adversaries has significantly evolved in recent years, but empirical evidence is scarce, especially at the mass level. By taking advantage of the unique opportunity of the 2019 North Korea–US Hanoi summit, we examine the conditions under which a powerful alliance partner's firm and uncompromising posture toward a common adversary reassures the citizens of a junior ally. Based on alliance literature, we hypothesize that a patron's hawkish policy reassures its protégé when the protégé fears abandonment more than entrapment and that the more a citizen of the protégé fears abandonment, the more reassuring the patron's hawkish policy is to the individual. Our analysis of online surveys conducted before and after the summit using a quota sample of the Japanese electorate shows that the level of threat perception is significantly lower in the post-summit sample than in the pre-summit one, especially among the respondents who fear abandonment by the US. We thus conclude that President Trump's decision not to compromise with North Korea on its nuclear programs alleviated Japanese citizens’ concerns about US alliance commitments to Japan, improving their security perception. This study is significant in showing that a patron state's policy toward a common adversary can greatly influence the perception of its ally's citizens as well as its government.
{"title":"Does a patron state's hardline posture reassure the public in an allied state?","authors":"Masaki Hata, Takeshi Iida, Yasuhiro Izumikawa, Tongfi Kim","doi":"10.1177/07388942231216733","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942231216733","url":null,"abstract":"How does a great power ally's demonstration of toughness toward a common adversary influence the sense of security among its weaker ally's citizens? The literature on the effects of standing firm against adversaries has significantly evolved in recent years, but empirical evidence is scarce, especially at the mass level. By taking advantage of the unique opportunity of the 2019 North Korea–US Hanoi summit, we examine the conditions under which a powerful alliance partner's firm and uncompromising posture toward a common adversary reassures the citizens of a junior ally. Based on alliance literature, we hypothesize that a patron's hawkish policy reassures its protégé when the protégé fears abandonment more than entrapment and that the more a citizen of the protégé fears abandonment, the more reassuring the patron's hawkish policy is to the individual. Our analysis of online surveys conducted before and after the summit using a quota sample of the Japanese electorate shows that the level of threat perception is significantly lower in the post-summit sample than in the pre-summit one, especially among the respondents who fear abandonment by the US. We thus conclude that President Trump's decision not to compromise with North Korea on its nuclear programs alleviated Japanese citizens’ concerns about US alliance commitments to Japan, improving their security perception. This study is significant in showing that a patron state's policy toward a common adversary can greatly influence the perception of its ally's citizens as well as its government.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":"91 18","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138606257","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-08DOI: 10.1177/07388942231210298
Jeff Carter
Research on political leaders has reshaped our understanding of international relations over the last 25 years. Much of the most influential contemporary research on leaders resides firmly in the peace science tradition, in terms of its substantive focus on interstate conflict processes and theoretical and methodological approaches to generating and empirically assessing expectations about politics. The articles in this special issue build upon this work to provide us with new insights into leaders’ influence on world politics.
{"title":"Introduction to special issue: New research on leaders and peace science","authors":"Jeff Carter","doi":"10.1177/07388942231210298","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942231210298","url":null,"abstract":"Research on political leaders has reshaped our understanding of international relations over the last 25 years. Much of the most influential contemporary research on leaders resides firmly in the peace science tradition, in terms of its substantive focus on interstate conflict processes and theoretical and methodological approaches to generating and empirically assessing expectations about politics. The articles in this special issue build upon this work to provide us with new insights into leaders’ influence on world politics.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":"53 8","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135429965","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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