Pub Date : 2022-08-15DOI: 10.1177/07388942221120382
T. Flores, Irfan Nooruddin
Civil conflict increases incumbents’ vulnerability, expands their coercive capacity, enervates public good provision, and stifles public opposition. Consequently, we expect that elections held during civil conflict will feature more incumbent-perpetrated election violence. We test our argument with disaggregated data on election violence, generating two principal findings. First, elections held during civil conflict are more likely to feature violent coercion by incumbents. Second, this effect does not depend on the conflict's intensity or political salience, but is endemic to conflict-affected societies as a class. This raises questions about the nature of elections in conflict-affected societies and the relationship between forms of political violence.
{"title":"Why incumbents perpetrate election violence during civil war","authors":"T. Flores, Irfan Nooruddin","doi":"10.1177/07388942221120382","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942221120382","url":null,"abstract":"Civil conflict increases incumbents’ vulnerability, expands their coercive capacity, enervates public good provision, and stifles public opposition. Consequently, we expect that elections held during civil conflict will feature more incumbent-perpetrated election violence. We test our argument with disaggregated data on election violence, generating two principal findings. First, elections held during civil conflict are more likely to feature violent coercion by incumbents. Second, this effect does not depend on the conflict's intensity or political salience, but is endemic to conflict-affected societies as a class. This raises questions about the nature of elections in conflict-affected societies and the relationship between forms of political violence.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":"40 1","pages":"533 - 553"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44947105","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-06DOI: 10.1177/07388942221111064
B. Reinsberg, Daniel O Shaw, L. Bujnoch
The concept of ‘human security’ holds promise of capturing the strong connections between economic development and personal security that has ushered in the debate about the ‘security−development nexus’ in policy circles. Human security is understood as the ability of states to protect the security of their citizens and to cater to their basic socioeconomic needs. However, the literature on human security is fragmented, leaving applied researchers without a workable definition and a convincing measurement strategy. Part of this problem is due to the fuzziness of the concept and the ambition to associate an ever-increasing set of dimensions with the concept, which renders empirical analysis moot. Following a review of the related literature, we collect measures aligning with ‘freedom from fear’ and ‘freedom from want’, representing the varied discourse on the human security concept. Employing confirmatory factor analysis on 11 indicators, we demonstrate the existence of a single latent factor and extract their common variation to generate a new Human Security Index. We validate the index by comparison against known proxies and related measures. We then present a first empirical application examining the human security implications of IMF programmes, finding that IMF programmes undermine human security, accounting for non-random selection into IMF programmes.
{"title":"Revisiting the security–development nexus: Human security and the effects of IMF adjustment programmes","authors":"B. Reinsberg, Daniel O Shaw, L. Bujnoch","doi":"10.1177/07388942221111064","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942221111064","url":null,"abstract":"The concept of ‘human security’ holds promise of capturing the strong connections between economic development and personal security that has ushered in the debate about the ‘security−development nexus’ in policy circles. Human security is understood as the ability of states to protect the security of their citizens and to cater to their basic socioeconomic needs. However, the literature on human security is fragmented, leaving applied researchers without a workable definition and a convincing measurement strategy. Part of this problem is due to the fuzziness of the concept and the ambition to associate an ever-increasing set of dimensions with the concept, which renders empirical analysis moot. Following a review of the related literature, we collect measures aligning with ‘freedom from fear’ and ‘freedom from want’, representing the varied discourse on the human security concept. Employing confirmatory factor analysis on 11 indicators, we demonstrate the existence of a single latent factor and extract their common variation to generate a new Human Security Index. We validate the index by comparison against known proxies and related measures. We then present a first empirical application examining the human security implications of IMF programmes, finding that IMF programmes undermine human security, accounting for non-random selection into IMF programmes.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-07-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47980583","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-06-29DOI: 10.1177/07388942221111069
Marcelo M. Leal, P. Musgrave
Theorists offer many predictions about how Americans will respond to significant cyberattacks but systematic evaluations of American public opinion regarding these issues remain rare. We present results from a conjoint experiment and find that the public supports retaliation-in-kind against cyberattacks but is willing to escalate as the economic damage and human casualties of a hypothetical attack mount. Respondents support harsher retaliation after attacks carried out by terrorist groups or state agencies rather than those conducted by individuals or civilian hackers. Finally, the dynamics of the public's judgment regarding responses to a domestic or an international cyber attack are broadly similar.
{"title":"Hitting back or holding back in cyberspace: Experimental evidence regarding Americans’ responses to cyberattacks","authors":"Marcelo M. Leal, P. Musgrave","doi":"10.1177/07388942221111069","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942221111069","url":null,"abstract":"Theorists offer many predictions about how Americans will respond to significant cyberattacks but systematic evaluations of American public opinion regarding these issues remain rare. We present results from a conjoint experiment and find that the public supports retaliation-in-kind against cyberattacks but is willing to escalate as the economic damage and human casualties of a hypothetical attack mount. Respondents support harsher retaliation after attacks carried out by terrorist groups or state agencies rather than those conducted by individuals or civilian hackers. Finally, the dynamics of the public's judgment regarding responses to a domestic or an international cyber attack are broadly similar.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":"40 1","pages":"42 - 64"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43439993","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-06-28DOI: 10.1177/07388942221110128
Joshua Eastin, Steven T. Zech
This study analyzes whether climate disasters and climate-induced food scarcities influence individuals’ willingness to fight for the state in a pro-government militia in the Philippines. We find that experiencing a disaster or subsistence loss corresponds to an increased willingness to join, even when accounting for other prominent explanations in the literature. This outcome, we argue, reflects the impact of climate change on the opportunity costs of conflict participation, especially in regions dependent on agriculture for income and food production, as diminished livelihood opportunities and subsistence resource access increase the viability of conflict participation as a strategy for livelihood diversification.
{"title":"Environmental pressures and pro-government militias: Evidence from the Philippines","authors":"Joshua Eastin, Steven T. Zech","doi":"10.1177/07388942221110128","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942221110128","url":null,"abstract":"This study analyzes whether climate disasters and climate-induced food scarcities influence individuals’ willingness to fight for the state in a pro-government militia in the Philippines. We find that experiencing a disaster or subsistence loss corresponds to an increased willingness to join, even when accounting for other prominent explanations in the literature. This outcome, we argue, reflects the impact of climate change on the opportunity costs of conflict participation, especially in regions dependent on agriculture for income and food production, as diminished livelihood opportunities and subsistence resource access increase the viability of conflict participation as a strategy for livelihood diversification.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":"40 1","pages":"489 - 510"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46997085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-06-14DOI: 10.1177/07388942221104032
Sam R. Bell, Risa Kitagawa
How do human rights organizations (HROs) shape transitional justice policy in countries emerging from conflict? We investigate this question in the context of peace processes, a vital stage when many key post-conflict policies are determined. Using granular data on the content of peace agreements, we show that the robust presence of HROs significantly increases the likelihood of provisions promising criminal accountability for wartime abuses. Yet this association is conditional on prior ratification of international human rights instruments and the existence of impartial third parties in the peace process—background factors that lower barriers to effective HRO advocacy. These findings reveal a novel pathway through which HROs secure transitional justice on the national agenda after conflict.
{"title":"Human rights organizations and transitional justice agenda-setting: Evidence from peace agreement provisions","authors":"Sam R. Bell, Risa Kitagawa","doi":"10.1177/07388942221104032","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942221104032","url":null,"abstract":"How do human rights organizations (HROs) shape transitional justice policy in countries emerging from conflict? We investigate this question in the context of peace processes, a vital stage when many key post-conflict policies are determined. Using granular data on the content of peace agreements, we show that the robust presence of HROs significantly increases the likelihood of provisions promising criminal accountability for wartime abuses. Yet this association is conditional on prior ratification of international human rights instruments and the existence of impartial third parties in the peace process—background factors that lower barriers to effective HRO advocacy. These findings reveal a novel pathway through which HROs secure transitional justice on the national agenda after conflict.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":"40 1","pages":"65 - 87"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49336497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-06-06DOI: 10.1177/07388942221094761
Shoko Kohama, T. Himichi, Kazunori Inamasu, N. Mifune, Y. Ohtsubo, Atsushi Tago
Apologies by political leaders to the citizens of a victimized country have attracted attention in recent years as a means of improving relations between nations. Existing studies have identified several elements that make such an apology effective, but from the politician's point of view, it is difficult to issue a statement containing all these elements, and they must then be chosen while considering domestic backlash and relations with countries other than the victimized one. However, it is not sufficiently clear how the victimized country's citizens weigh the elements of the apology when they accept it and how the nature of the harm caused changes this. Therefore, we conducted a survey experiment in Japan, adopting a conjoint design using scenarios depicting fictional US presidential apologies to Japan. Our experiment demonstrated three attributes particularly regarded as important in determining whether people would accept an apology: the reparation amount, whether the apology was official (formality), and the voluntariness of the apology. However, when something that people consider “sacred” has been harmed, reparation proposals are counterproductive, and the optimal apology form may depend on the nature of the harm.
{"title":"Crafting international apologies that work: A conjoint analysis approach","authors":"Shoko Kohama, T. Himichi, Kazunori Inamasu, N. Mifune, Y. Ohtsubo, Atsushi Tago","doi":"10.1177/07388942221094761","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942221094761","url":null,"abstract":"Apologies by political leaders to the citizens of a victimized country have attracted attention in recent years as a means of improving relations between nations. Existing studies have identified several elements that make such an apology effective, but from the politician's point of view, it is difficult to issue a statement containing all these elements, and they must then be chosen while considering domestic backlash and relations with countries other than the victimized one. However, it is not sufficiently clear how the victimized country's citizens weigh the elements of the apology when they accept it and how the nature of the harm caused changes this. Therefore, we conducted a survey experiment in Japan, adopting a conjoint design using scenarios depicting fictional US presidential apologies to Japan. Our experiment demonstrated three attributes particularly regarded as important in determining whether people would accept an apology: the reparation amount, whether the apology was official (formality), and the voluntariness of the apology. However, when something that people consider “sacred” has been harmed, reparation proposals are counterproductive, and the optimal apology form may depend on the nature of the harm.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":"40 1","pages":"419 - 440"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42842608","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-05-06DOI: 10.1177/07388942221092086
Richard J Saunders
Previous research shows that leader turnover and change in a leader's winning coalition are associated with rivalry termination. However, this research often conflates change in leadership or winning coalition with more fundamental reform of the institutions governing the state. This article argues that only changes in a rival's governing institutions should lead to rivalry termination. Changes in leader preferences may lead to conciliatory policies, but provide no certainty regarding the sincerity or longevity of these policies. Fundamental changes to the institutions of a state alter the menu of policy options available to the leadership and are difficult to undo. Institutional reform in Rival A makes the leadership of Rival B more willing to undertake potentially risky cooperative action, leading to rivalry termination. I test this argument in a dataset of rivalry terminations spanning 1919–2010, finding that institutional reform in one rival leads to an increase in the likelihood of rivalry termination regardless of the issues of contention. Irregular leader turnover and change in a state's winning coalition have no effect. Further, in a break with previous research, I find that any institutional reform—toward autocracy, toward democracy or laterally—is associated with an increased likelihood of rivalry termination.
{"title":"A certain gamble: Institutional change, leader turnover, and their effect on rivalry termination","authors":"Richard J Saunders","doi":"10.1177/07388942221092086","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942221092086","url":null,"abstract":"Previous research shows that leader turnover and change in a leader's winning coalition are associated with rivalry termination. However, this research often conflates change in leadership or winning coalition with more fundamental reform of the institutions governing the state. This article argues that only changes in a rival's governing institutions should lead to rivalry termination. Changes in leader preferences may lead to conciliatory policies, but provide no certainty regarding the sincerity or longevity of these policies. Fundamental changes to the institutions of a state alter the menu of policy options available to the leadership and are difficult to undo. Institutional reform in Rival A makes the leadership of Rival B more willing to undertake potentially risky cooperative action, leading to rivalry termination. I test this argument in a dataset of rivalry terminations spanning 1919–2010, finding that institutional reform in one rival leads to an increase in the likelihood of rivalry termination regardless of the issues of contention. Irregular leader turnover and change in a state's winning coalition have no effect. Further, in a break with previous research, I find that any institutional reform—toward autocracy, toward democracy or laterally—is associated with an increased likelihood of rivalry termination.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":"40 1","pages":"281 - 303"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49134892","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-05-06DOI: 10.1177/07388942221097325
Amit Loewenthal, Sami H. Miaari, A. Abrahams
States, in their conflicts with militant groups embedded in civilian populations, often resort to policies of collective punishment to erode civilian support for the militants. We attempt to evaluate the efficacy of such policies in the context of the Gaza Strip, where Israel's blockade and military interventions, purportedly intended to erode support for Hamas, have inflicted hardship on the civilian population. We combine Palestinian public opinion data, Palestinian labor force surveys, and Palestinian fatalities data, to understand the relationship between exposure to Israeli policies and Palestinian support for militant factions. Our baseline strategy is a difference-in-differences specification that compares the gap in public opinion between the Gaza Strip and the West Bank during periods of intense punishment with the gap during periods when punishment is eased. Consistent with previous research, we find that Palestinian fatalities are associated with Palestinian support for more militant political factions. The effect is short-lived, however, dissipating after merely one quarter. Moreover, the blockade of Gaza itself appears to be only weakly associated with support for militant factions. Overall, we find little evidence to suggest that Israeli security policies toward the Gaza Strip have any substantial lasting effect on Gazan support for militant factions, neither deterring nor provoking them relative to their West Bank counterparts. Our findings therefore call into question the logic of Israel's continued security policies toward Gaza, while prompting a wider re-examination of the efficacy of deterrence strategies in other asymmetric conflicts.
{"title":"How civilian attitudes respond to the state’s violence: Lessons from the Israel–Gaza conflict","authors":"Amit Loewenthal, Sami H. Miaari, A. Abrahams","doi":"10.1177/07388942221097325","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942221097325","url":null,"abstract":"States, in their conflicts with militant groups embedded in civilian populations, often resort to policies of collective punishment to erode civilian support for the militants. We attempt to evaluate the efficacy of such policies in the context of the Gaza Strip, where Israel's blockade and military interventions, purportedly intended to erode support for Hamas, have inflicted hardship on the civilian population. We combine Palestinian public opinion data, Palestinian labor force surveys, and Palestinian fatalities data, to understand the relationship between exposure to Israeli policies and Palestinian support for militant factions. Our baseline strategy is a difference-in-differences specification that compares the gap in public opinion between the Gaza Strip and the West Bank during periods of intense punishment with the gap during periods when punishment is eased. Consistent with previous research, we find that Palestinian fatalities are associated with Palestinian support for more militant political factions. The effect is short-lived, however, dissipating after merely one quarter. Moreover, the blockade of Gaza itself appears to be only weakly associated with support for militant factions. Overall, we find little evidence to suggest that Israeli security policies toward the Gaza Strip have any substantial lasting effect on Gazan support for militant factions, neither deterring nor provoking them relative to their West Bank counterparts. Our findings therefore call into question the logic of Israel's continued security policies toward Gaza, while prompting a wider re-examination of the efficacy of deterrence strategies in other asymmetric conflicts.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":"40 1","pages":"441 - 463"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42384558","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-04-26DOI: 10.1177/07388942221094006
Amira Jadoon, Hina Khalid
How does political violence affect public health risks? While past research provides useful insights, it remains unclear how the effect of violence on health risks varies by perpetrator identity, target, and the intensity of attacks. We argue that indiscriminate attacks by militants will discourage civilians from accessing healthcare services. In contrast, clashes between militants and governments are likely to induce state actors to augment healthcare provision, while reinforced state control may facilitate civilians’ access. We test our arguments by employing multilevel modeling using subnational data on political violence events within Pakistan between 2005 and 2011, and immunization rates for under-5 infectious diseases.
{"title":"Fear, accessibility, and legitimacy: An examination of the effects of political violence on health security in Pakistan","authors":"Amira Jadoon, Hina Khalid","doi":"10.1177/07388942221094006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942221094006","url":null,"abstract":"How does political violence affect public health risks? While past research provides useful insights, it remains unclear how the effect of violence on health risks varies by perpetrator identity, target, and the intensity of attacks. We argue that indiscriminate attacks by militants will discourage civilians from accessing healthcare services. In contrast, clashes between militants and governments are likely to induce state actors to augment healthcare provision, while reinforced state control may facilitate civilians’ access. We test our arguments by employing multilevel modeling using subnational data on political violence events within Pakistan between 2005 and 2011, and immunization rates for under-5 infectious diseases.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":"40 1","pages":"207 - 235"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48111350","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-04-12DOI: 10.1177/07388942221092126
C. Trinn, Lennard Naumann
The discovery of power laws in conflict intensities has spurred numerous explanation attempts. Two different interpretations have persisted: the notion that power laws are spurious results of random processes and the opposing view that power-law distributions attest to endogenous dynamics linked to self-organized criticality (SOC). We substantiate the SOC forest-fire model for intrastate conflicts, conceptualizing conflict potential as social pressure, measured by horizontal inequality. This potential is triggered by infinitesimal events. Their occurrence depends on the interaction density between conflict actors, operationalized as the conjunction of state capacity and non-state governance. In a global analysis of 143 conflict dyads, we find that 40 conform to a power law and 33 to a stretched exponential distribution, the two outcomes predicted by the model. We find evidence that the forest-fire model is a plausible approximation of the dynamics of intrastate conflicts, accounting for both the conformity and the non-conformity to power laws.
{"title":"Guns and lightning: Power law distributions in intrastate conflict intensity dynamics","authors":"C. Trinn, Lennard Naumann","doi":"10.1177/07388942221092126","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942221092126","url":null,"abstract":"The discovery of power laws in conflict intensities has spurred numerous explanation attempts. Two different interpretations have persisted: the notion that power laws are spurious results of random processes and the opposing view that power-law distributions attest to endogenous dynamics linked to self-organized criticality (SOC). We substantiate the SOC forest-fire model for intrastate conflicts, conceptualizing conflict potential as social pressure, measured by horizontal inequality. This potential is triggered by infinitesimal events. Their occurrence depends on the interaction density between conflict actors, operationalized as the conjunction of state capacity and non-state governance. In a global analysis of 143 conflict dyads, we find that 40 conform to a power law and 33 to a stretched exponential distribution, the two outcomes predicted by the model. We find evidence that the forest-fire model is a plausible approximation of the dynamics of intrastate conflicts, accounting for both the conformity and the non-conformity to power laws.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":"40 1","pages":"373 - 397"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46843819","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：