System Dynamics Review最新文献

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Dealing with soft variables and data scarcity: lessons learnt from quantification in a participatory system dynamics modelling process 处理软变量和数据稀缺问题：从参与式系统动力学建模过程中的量化工作中汲取的经验教训

IF 4.8 3区管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT

System Dynamics Review

Pub Date : 2024-04-14 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1770

Irene Pluchinotta, Ke Zhou, Nici Zimmermann

System dynamics (SD) models are commonly used for structuring complex problems to support decision‐making. They are used to investigate areas in which limited knowledge is available, describing nonlinear relationships and including intangible elements. Although this explorative nature is one of the key advantages, it also represents a challenge for quantifying the intangible, i.e. more qualitative aspects of an SD model, especially when it is not possible to apply conventional analytical methods due to data scarcity. Procedures to obtain and analyse information using participatory approaches are limited. First, this article outlines existing quantification methods and related open questions when dealing with soft variables and data scarcity. Secondly, it summarises the quantification process developed during a participatory SD process, describing how we dealt with data scarcity and soft variables. Lastly, we suggest a quantification framework in relation to data availability and level of stakeholder engagement. © 2024 The Authors. System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.

系统动力学（SD）模型通常用于构建复杂问题的结构以支持决策。它们用于研究知识有限的领域，描述非线性关系，并包括无形要素。尽管这种探索性是其主要优势之一，但它也对量化 SD 模型的无形要素，即更多的定性要素提出了挑战，尤其是在由于数据匮乏而无法采用传统分析方法的情况下。利用参与式方法获取和分析信息的程序十分有限。首先，本文概述了处理软变量和数据稀缺问题时的现有量化方法和相关开放性问题。其次，本文总结了在参与式可持续发展过程中开发的量化程序，描述了我们如何处理数据稀缺和软变量问题。最后，我们提出了一个与数据可用性和利益相关者参与程度相关的量化框架。© 2024 作者。系统动力学评论》由 John Wiley & Sons Ltd 代表系统动力学学会出版。

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引用次数: 0

Building confidence in exploratory models 建立对探索性模型的信心

IF 4.8 3区管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT

System Dynamics Review

Pub Date : 2024-04-12 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1769

George P. Richardson

引用次数: 0

A framework for using Theory of Constraints thinking processes and tools to complement qualitative system dynamics modelling 利用约束理论思维过程和工具补充定性系统动力学建模的框架

IF 4.8 3区管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT

System Dynamics Review

Pub Date : 2024-03-14 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1768

Victoria J. Mabin, Robert Y. Cavana

While the tools currently used for qualitative system dynamics (Qual SD) modelling are very powerful in providing a holistic perspective and a framework for understanding complexity and change, they are often not explicitly designed to build and implement long‐term solutions based on that understanding. The Theory of Constraints (TOC) thinking processes and tools focus on these important aspects of the decision‐making process. We provide a six‐stage framework combining selected tools from TOC's thinking process and Qual SD's modelling process to provide a more rigorous systems thinking change process. We illustrate the methods and component tools via a case study on a complex societal issue (sale of alcohol in New Zealand supermarkets) developed for teaching purposes. We demonstrate the value of the framework, highlighting complementarities between tools, and show how specific insights emerged using each of the tools, with more insights resulting from using Qual SD and TOC collectively than separately. © 2024 The Authors. System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.

虽然目前用于定性系统动力学（Qual SD）建模的工具在提供整体视角和理解复杂性与变化的框架方面非常强大，但这些工具往往没有明确设计用于在这种理解的基础上建立和实施长期解决方案。约束理论（TOC）思维过程和工具侧重于决策过程的这些重要方面。我们提供了一个六阶段框架，将 TOC 思考过程中的选定工具与 Qual SD 的建模过程相结合，以提供一个更严格的系统思考变革过程。我们通过一个为教学目的而开发的复杂社会问题（新西兰超市的酒类销售）的案例研究来说明这些方法和组成工具。我们展示了该框架的价值，强调了工具之间的互补性，并说明了如何通过使用每种工具获得具体的见解，与单独使用相比，集体使用 Qual SD 和 TOC 获得的见解更多。© 2024 作者。系统动力学评论》由 John Wiley & Sons Ltd 代表系统动力学协会出版。

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引用次数: 0

Participatory modeling for high complexity, multi‐system issues: challenges and recommendations for balancing qualitative understanding and quantitative questions 高复杂性、多系统问题的参与式建模：平衡定性理解和定量问题的挑战与建议

IF 4.8 3区管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT

System Dynamics Review

Pub Date : 2024-02-23 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1765

Arielle R. Deutsch, Leah Frerichs, Madeleine Perry, Mohammad S. Jalali

Community stakeholder participation can be incredibly valuable for the qualitative model development process. However, modelers often encounter challenges for participatory modeling projects focusing on high‐complexity, synergistic interactions between multiple issues, systems, and granularity. The diverse stakeholder perspectives and volumes of information necessary for developing such models can yield qualitative models that are difficult to translate into quantitative simulation or clear insight for informed decision‐making. There are few recommended best practices for developing high‐complexity, participatory models. We use an ongoing project as a case study to highlight three practical challenges for tackling high‐complexity, multi‐system issues with system dynamics tools. These challenges include balanced and respectful stakeholder engagement, defining boundaries and levels of variable aggregation, and timing and processes for qualitative/quantitative model integration. Our five recommendations to address these challenges serve as a foundation for further research on methods for developing translatable qualitative multi‐system models for informing actions for systemic change. © 2024 System Dynamics Society.

社区利益相关者的参与对于定性模型的开发过程具有极大的价值。然而，建模人员在参与式建模项目中经常会遇到挑战，这些项目侧重于高复杂性、多个问题、系统和粒度之间的协同互动。利益相关者的不同观点和开发此类模型所需的大量信息可能会导致定性模型难以转化为定量模拟或用于知情决策的清晰见解。在开发高复杂性的参与式模型方面，几乎没有推荐的最佳实践。我们将一个正在进行的项目作为案例研究，重点介绍利用系统动力学工具解决高复杂性、多系统问题的三个实际挑战。这些挑战包括平衡和尊重利益相关者的参与、定义变量聚合的边界和水平，以及定性/定量模型整合的时间和流程。我们针对这些挑战提出了五项建议，为进一步研究开发可转化的定性多系统模型的方法奠定了基础，以便为系统变革行动提供信息。© 2024 系统动力学学会。

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引用次数: 0

History of the Beer Game 啤酒游戏的历史

IF 4.8 3区管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT

System Dynamics Review

Pub Date : 2024-02-22 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1767

Ignacio J. Martinez-Moyano

This article describes the history of the Beer Game. By triangulating information from literature, archival analysis, and interviews with experts in the field, the main changes in the game over its almost 70-year history are identified. The article discusses three aspects of the game: 1) its structure (phases of its history, stocks and flows, parameters, etc.); 2) the process for playing the game; and 3) the game debrief. The structure of the Beer Game, and the process for running it, have stabilized over the years into what is now a de facto standard approach. Additional work is needed in the game debrief, specifically in the clarification of key insights and messages (depending on the context of the use of the game), in how to communicate such messages to different audiences, and in the development of support materials for its delivery. © 2024 UChicago Argonne, LLC. System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.

本文介绍了啤酒游戏的历史。通过对文献资料、档案分析以及与该领域专家的访谈进行三角分析，确定了啤酒游戏在近 70 年历史中的主要变化。文章从三个方面讨论了啤酒游戏：1) 游戏结构（历史阶段、存量和流量、参数等）；2) 游戏过程；3) 游戏汇报。多年来，"啤酒游戏 "的结构和游戏过程已经稳定下来，成为事实上的标准方法。在游戏汇报方面还需要做更多的工作，特别是要明确关键的见解和信息（取决于游戏的使用环境），如何向不同的受众传达这些信息，以及为游戏的实施编写辅助材料。©2024芝加哥阿贡大学有限责任公司。系统动力学评论》由 John Wiley & Sons Ltd 代表系统动力学协会出版。

引用次数: 0

What is (quantitative) system dynamics modeling? Defining characteristics and the opportunities they create 什么是（定量）系统动力学建模？定义特征及其带来的机遇

IF 4.8 3区管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT

System Dynamics Review

Pub Date : 2024-02-05 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1762

Asmeret Naugle, Saeed Langarudi, Timothy Clancy

A clear definition of system dynamics modeling can provide shared understanding and clarify the impact of the field. We introduce a set of characteristics that define quantitative system dynamics, selected to capture core philosophy, describe theoretical and practical principles, and apply to historical work but be flexible enough to remain relevant as the field progresses. The defining characteristics are: (1) models are based on causal feedback structure, (2) accumulations and delays are foundational, (3) models are equation-based, (4) concept of time is continuous, and (5) analysis focuses on feedback dynamics. We discuss the implications of these principles and use them to identify research opportunities in which the system dynamics field can advance. These research opportunities include causality, disaggregation, data science and AI, and contributing to scientific advancement. Progress in these areas has the potential to improve both the science and practice of system dynamics. © 2024 The Authors. System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.

对系统动力学建模的明确定义可以提供共同的理解并明确该领域的影响。我们介绍了一组定义定量系统动力学的特征，这些特征是为了捕捉核心理念、描述理论和实践原则、适用于历史工作，但又足够灵活，以便随着该领域的发展保持相关性。这些特征包括(1) 模型基于因果反馈结构，(2) 积累和延迟是基础，(3) 模型基于方程，(4) 时间概念是连续的，(5) 分析侧重于反馈动力学。我们讨论了这些原则的含义，并利用它们确定了系统动力学领域可以推进的研究机会。这些研究机会包括因果关系、分解、数据科学和人工智能，以及促进科学进步。这些领域的进展有可能改善系统动力学的科学和实践。© 2024 作者。系统动力学评论》由 John Wiley & Sons Ltd 代表系统动力学学会出版。

引用次数: 0

Descriptive design structure matrices for improved system dynamics qualitative modeling 用于改进系统动力学定性建模的描述性设计结构矩阵

IF 4.8 3区管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT

System Dynamics Review

Pub Date : 2024-01-18 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1764

Rameez R. Qureshi, David N. Ford, Charles M. Wolf

Qualitative modeling approaches can be useful in system information collection, model analysis, and formal model development. This is difficult when the number of elements and their interactions in the system is large. System dynamicists need additional tools and methods to conceptually model these large tightly coupled systems. We propose and test the Descriptive Design Structure Matrix (DDSM) as a qualitative system dynamics modeling tool and approach for systems with many elements and more interactions that can reasonably be modeled individually using traditional system dynamics methods. A DDSM consists of four parallel and internally consistent matrices that describe system interactions with binary relations, nontechnical text, technical text, and literature support. By including and documenting system information in multiple forms, DDSMs facilitate multiple stages of system dynamics modeling, improve modeler communication with system participants and domain experts, and improve model rigor. DDSM construction is described. A case study of the 2014 flooding in Kashmir is used to illustrate and test a DDSM and its application. Due to their compact format, DDSMs provide a useful visual communication aid, intuitive reasoning tool, and foundation for formal system dynamics modeling and analysis. © 2024 The Authors. System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.

定性建模方法可用于系统信息收集、模型分析和正式模型开发。当系统中的元素数量及其相互作用非常多时，就很难做到这一点。系统动力学家需要额外的工具和方法来对这些大型紧密耦合系统进行概念建模。我们提出并测试了描述性设计结构矩阵 (DDSM)，将其作为定性系统动力学建模工具和方法，用于具有众多元素和更多交互作用的系统，这些元素和交互作用可以用传统的系统动力学方法进行合理的单独建模。DDSM 由四个平行且内部一致的矩阵组成，通过二进制关系、非技术文本、技术文本和文献支持来描述系统交互。通过以多种形式包含和记录系统信息，DDSM 可促进系统动力学建模的多个阶段，改善建模者与系统参与者和领域专家的交流，并提高模型的严谨性。本文介绍了 DDSM 的构建。通过对 2014 年克什米尔洪灾的案例研究，说明并测试了 DDSM 及其应用。由于格式紧凑，DDSM 为正式的系统动力学建模和分析提供了有用的可视化交流辅助工具、直观推理工具和基础。© 2024 作者。系统动力学评论》由 John Wiley & Sons Ltd 代表系统动力学学会出版。

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引用次数: 0

Generative agent‐based modeling: an introduction and tutorial 基于生成代理的建模：介绍和教程

IF 4.8 3区管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT

System Dynamics Review

Pub Date : 2024-01-10 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1761

Navid Ghaffarzadegan, A. Majumdar, Ross Williams, Niyousha Hosseinichimeh

We discuss the emerging new opportunity for building feedback‐rich computational models of social systems using generative artificial intelligence. Referred to as generative agent‐based models (GABMs), such individual‐level models utilize large language models to represent human decision‐making in social settings. We provide a GABM case in which human behavior can be incorporated into simulation models by coupling a mechanistic model of human interactions with a pre‐trained large language model. This is achieved by introducing a simple GABM of social norm diffusion in an organization. For educational purposes, the model is intentionally kept simple. We examine a wide range of scenarios and the sensitivity of the results to several changes in the prompt. We hope the article and the model serve as a guide for building useful dynamic models of various social systems that include realistic human reasoning and decision‐making. © 2024 System Dynamics Society.

我们讨论了利用生成式人工智能建立反馈丰富的社会系统计算模型的新机遇。这种个体级模型被称为基于生成代理的模型（GABM），它利用大型语言模型来表示人类在社会环境中的决策。我们提供了一个 GABM 案例，在这个案例中，通过将人机交互的机械模型与预先训练好的大型语言模型相结合，可以将人类行为纳入仿真模型。为此，我们引入了一个组织中社会规范扩散的简单 GABM 模型。出于教育目的，该模型有意保持简单。我们研究了多种情景以及结果对提示中若干变化的敏感性。我们希望这篇文章和模型能为建立各种社会系统的有用动态模型提供指导，其中包括现实的人类推理和决策。© 2024 系统动力学会。

引用次数: 0

A comparison of loop dominance methods: measures and meaning 环路主导地位方法的比较：测量方法和意义

IF 4.8 3区管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT

System Dynamics Review

Pub Date : 2024-01-07 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1757

John Hayward, Paul A. Roach

引用次数: 0

Techniques to enhance the public policy impact of qualitative system dynamics models 增强定性系统动力学模型对公共政策影响的技术

IF 4.8 3区管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT

System Dynamics Review

Pub Date : 2023-12-26 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1758

G.A. (Guido) Veldhuis, E.M. (Eefje) Smits-Clijsen, R.P.M. (Rob) van Waas

This article demonstrates techniques to enhance the public policy impact of qualitative system dynamics models. We focus on the effective use of a large causal loop diagram (CLD) to explore a multifaceted problem situation. We discuss the conditions that can lead to developing a large CLD, the challenges this presents, and techniques that can be used to overcome them. Several techniques are discussed related to an online group model-building (GMB) process, the use of quantitative data, visual model analyses using a software tool and reporting. The techniques are demonstrated using an impactful case study on the social impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. We reflect on the efficacy of the approach through the lens of systems thinking and conclude that the techniques made a positive contribution to all aspects of systems thinking. Several avenues for future work are discussed. © 2023 The Authors. System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.

本文展示了增强定性系统动力学模型对公共政策影响的技术。我们重点探讨了如何有效利用大型因果循环图（CLD）来探索多方面的问题情境。我们讨论了开发大型因果循环图的条件、所面临的挑战以及可以用来克服这些挑战的技术。我们讨论了与在线小组模型构建（GMB）过程、定量数据的使用、使用软件工具进行可视化模型分析以及报告有关的几种技术。我们通过一个关于 COVID-19 大流行病社会影响的案例研究来展示这些技术。我们从系统思维的角度反思了该方法的有效性，并得出结论：这些技术对系统思维的各个方面都做出了积极贡献。我们还讨论了未来工作的若干途径。© 2023 作者。系统动力学评论》由 John Wiley & Sons Ltd 代表系统动力学学会出版。

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System Dynamics Review

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