System Dynamics Review最新文献

英文中文

Commentaries on “what is (quantitative) system dynamics modeling? Defining characteristics and the opportunities they create,” by Naugle et al. (2024) 关于 "什么是（定量）系统动力学建模？定义特征及其创造的机会 "的评论，作者 Naugle 等人（2024 年）

IF 4.8 3区管理学 Q1 Social Sciences

System Dynamics Review

Pub Date : 2024-02-12 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1763

Tom Fiddaman, J. Musango, Markus Schwaninger, Miriam Spano

引用次数: 0

IF 4.8 3区管理学 Q1 Social Sciences

System Dynamics Review

Pub Date : 2024-02-12 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1763

Tom Fiddaman, J. Musango, Markus Schwaninger, Miriam Spano

引用次数: 0

What is (quantitative) system dynamics modeling? Defining characteristics and the opportunities they create 什么是（定量）系统动力学建模？定义特征及其带来的机遇

IF 4.8 3区管理学 Q1 Social Sciences

System Dynamics Review

Pub Date : 2024-02-05 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1762

Asmeret Naugle, Saeed Langarudi, Timothy Clancy

A clear definition of system dynamics modeling can provide shared understanding and clarify the impact of the field. We introduce a set of characteristics that define quantitative system dynamics, selected to capture core philosophy, describe theoretical and practical principles, and apply to historical work but be flexible enough to remain relevant as the field progresses. The defining characteristics are: (1) models are based on causal feedback structure, (2) accumulations and delays are foundational, (3) models are equation-based, (4) concept of time is continuous, and (5) analysis focuses on feedback dynamics. We discuss the implications of these principles and use them to identify research opportunities in which the system dynamics field can advance. These research opportunities include causality, disaggregation, data science and AI, and contributing to scientific advancement. Progress in these areas has the potential to improve both the science and practice of system dynamics. © 2024 The Authors. System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.

对系统动力学建模的明确定义可以提供共同的理解并明确该领域的影响。我们介绍了一组定义定量系统动力学的特征，这些特征是为了捕捉核心理念、描述理论和实践原则、适用于历史工作，但又足够灵活，以便随着该领域的发展保持相关性。这些特征包括(1) 模型基于因果反馈结构，(2) 积累和延迟是基础，(3) 模型基于方程，(4) 时间概念是连续的，(5) 分析侧重于反馈动力学。我们讨论了这些原则的含义，并利用它们确定了系统动力学领域可以推进的研究机会。这些研究机会包括因果关系、分解、数据科学和人工智能，以及促进科学进步。这些领域的进展有可能改善系统动力学的科学和实践。© 2024 作者。系统动力学评论》由 John Wiley & Sons Ltd 代表系统动力学学会出版。

引用次数: 0

Uncovering the unknown with REMODEAL: A systematic method for reference mode elicitation 用 REMODEAL 揭开未知：一种系统的参考模式激发方法

IF 4.8 3区管理学 Q1 Social Sciences

System Dynamics Review

Pub Date : 2024-01-24 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1766

Christine Tang, Raafat Zaini, Saeed P. Langarudi

Reference modes aid in focusing modeling efforts and defining the problem to study. When faced with scarce or no data, modelers must elicit reference modes of dynamic behavior from participants. There is a lack of a systematic, scalable, rigorous and reliable method to capture and consolidate the qualitative and quantitative components of behavior‐over‐time graphs. The REference MOde DEvelopment ALgorithm (REMODEAL) fills this gap with a structured approach for modelers to elicit, verify and analyze data on tangible and intangible variables from participants. REMODEAL consists of a novel three‐graph method to triangulate a participant's reference mode of dynamic behavior. © 2024 System Dynamics Society.

参考模式有助于集中建模工作和确定要研究的问题。在缺乏数据或没有数据的情况下，建模者必须从参与者那里获得动态行为的参考模式。目前还缺乏一种系统的、可扩展的、严格的和可靠的方法来捕捉和整合随时间变化的行为图的定性和定量部分。参考模型开发算法（REMODEAL）填补了这一空白，为建模人员提供了一种结构化方法，用于从参与者那里获取、验证和分析有形和无形变量数据。REMODEAL 包括一种新颖的三图方法，用于三角测量参与者的动态行为参考模式。© 2024 系统动力学协会。

引用次数: 0

Descriptive design structure matrices for improved system dynamics qualitative modeling 用于改进系统动力学定性建模的描述性设计结构矩阵

IF 4.8 3区管理学 Q1 Social Sciences

System Dynamics Review

Pub Date : 2024-01-18 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1764

Rameez R. Qureshi, David N. Ford, Charles M. Wolf

Qualitative modeling approaches can be useful in system information collection, model analysis, and formal model development. This is difficult when the number of elements and their interactions in the system is large. System dynamicists need additional tools and methods to conceptually model these large tightly coupled systems. We propose and test the Descriptive Design Structure Matrix (DDSM) as a qualitative system dynamics modeling tool and approach for systems with many elements and more interactions that can reasonably be modeled individually using traditional system dynamics methods. A DDSM consists of four parallel and internally consistent matrices that describe system interactions with binary relations, nontechnical text, technical text, and literature support. By including and documenting system information in multiple forms, DDSMs facilitate multiple stages of system dynamics modeling, improve modeler communication with system participants and domain experts, and improve model rigor. DDSM construction is described. A case study of the 2014 flooding in Kashmir is used to illustrate and test a DDSM and its application. Due to their compact format, DDSMs provide a useful visual communication aid, intuitive reasoning tool, and foundation for formal system dynamics modeling and analysis. © 2024 The Authors. System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.

定性建模方法可用于系统信息收集、模型分析和正式模型开发。当系统中的元素数量及其相互作用非常多时，就很难做到这一点。系统动力学家需要额外的工具和方法来对这些大型紧密耦合系统进行概念建模。我们提出并测试了描述性设计结构矩阵 (DDSM)，将其作为定性系统动力学建模工具和方法，用于具有众多元素和更多交互作用的系统，这些元素和交互作用可以用传统的系统动力学方法进行合理的单独建模。DDSM 由四个平行且内部一致的矩阵组成，通过二进制关系、非技术文本、技术文本和文献支持来描述系统交互。通过以多种形式包含和记录系统信息，DDSM 可促进系统动力学建模的多个阶段，改善建模者与系统参与者和领域专家的交流，并提高模型的严谨性。本文介绍了 DDSM 的构建。通过对 2014 年克什米尔洪灾的案例研究，说明并测试了 DDSM 及其应用。由于格式紧凑，DDSM 为正式的系统动力学建模和分析提供了有用的可视化交流辅助工具、直观推理工具和基础。© 2024 作者。系统动力学评论》由 John Wiley & Sons Ltd 代表系统动力学学会出版。

{"title":"Descriptive design structure matrices for improved system dynamics qualitative modeling","authors":"Rameez R. Qureshi, David N. Ford, Charles M. Wolf","doi":"10.1002/sdr.1764","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1764","url":null,"abstract":"Qualitative modeling approaches can be useful in system information collection, model analysis, and formal model development. This is difficult when the number of elements and their interactions in the system is large. System dynamicists need additional tools and methods to conceptually model these large tightly coupled systems. We propose and test the Descriptive Design Structure Matrix (DDSM) as a qualitative system dynamics modeling tool and approach for systems with many elements and more interactions that can reasonably be modeled individually using traditional system dynamics methods. A DDSM consists of four parallel and internally consistent matrices that describe system interactions with binary relations, nontechnical text, technical text, and literature support. By including and documenting system information in multiple forms, DDSMs facilitate multiple stages of system dynamics modeling, improve modeler communication with system participants and domain experts, and improve model rigor. DDSM construction is described. A case study of the 2014 flooding in Kashmir is used to illustrate and test a DDSM and its application. Due to their compact format, DDSMs provide a useful visual communication aid, intuitive reasoning tool, and foundation for formal system dynamics modeling and analysis. © 2024 The Authors. System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.","PeriodicalId":51500,"journal":{"name":"System Dynamics Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139518119","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Generative agent‐based modeling: an introduction and tutorial 基于生成代理的建模：介绍和教程

IF 4.8 3区管理学 Q1 Social Sciences

System Dynamics Review

Pub Date : 2024-01-10 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1761

Navid Ghaffarzadegan, A. Majumdar, Ross Williams, Niyousha Hosseinichimeh

We discuss the emerging new opportunity for building feedback‐rich computational models of social systems using generative artificial intelligence. Referred to as generative agent‐based models (GABMs), such individual‐level models utilize large language models to represent human decision‐making in social settings. We provide a GABM case in which human behavior can be incorporated into simulation models by coupling a mechanistic model of human interactions with a pre‐trained large language model. This is achieved by introducing a simple GABM of social norm diffusion in an organization. For educational purposes, the model is intentionally kept simple. We examine a wide range of scenarios and the sensitivity of the results to several changes in the prompt. We hope the article and the model serve as a guide for building useful dynamic models of various social systems that include realistic human reasoning and decision‐making. © 2024 System Dynamics Society.

我们讨论了利用生成式人工智能建立反馈丰富的社会系统计算模型的新机遇。这种个体级模型被称为基于生成代理的模型（GABM），它利用大型语言模型来表示人类在社会环境中的决策。我们提供了一个 GABM 案例，在这个案例中，通过将人机交互的机械模型与预先训练好的大型语言模型相结合，可以将人类行为纳入仿真模型。为此，我们引入了一个组织中社会规范扩散的简单 GABM 模型。出于教育目的，该模型有意保持简单。我们研究了多种情景以及结果对提示中若干变化的敏感性。我们希望这篇文章和模型能为建立各种社会系统的有用动态模型提供指导，其中包括现实的人类推理和决策。© 2024 系统动力学会。

引用次数: 0

A comparison of loop dominance methods: measures and meaning 环路主导地位方法的比较：测量方法和意义

IF 4.8 3区管理学 Q1 Social Sciences

System Dynamics Review

Pub Date : 2024-01-07 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1757

John Hayward, Paul A. Roach

引用次数: 0

Techniques to enhance the public policy impact of qualitative system dynamics models 增强定性系统动力学模型对公共政策影响的技术

IF 4.8 3区管理学 Q1 Social Sciences

System Dynamics Review

Pub Date : 2023-12-26 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1758

G.A. (Guido) Veldhuis, E.M. (Eefje) Smits-Clijsen, R.P.M. (Rob) van Waas

This article demonstrates techniques to enhance the public policy impact of qualitative system dynamics models. We focus on the effective use of a large causal loop diagram (CLD) to explore a multifaceted problem situation. We discuss the conditions that can lead to developing a large CLD, the challenges this presents, and techniques that can be used to overcome them. Several techniques are discussed related to an online group model-building (GMB) process, the use of quantitative data, visual model analyses using a software tool and reporting. The techniques are demonstrated using an impactful case study on the social impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. We reflect on the efficacy of the approach through the lens of systems thinking and conclude that the techniques made a positive contribution to all aspects of systems thinking. Several avenues for future work are discussed. © 2023 The Authors. System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.

本文展示了增强定性系统动力学模型对公共政策影响的技术。我们重点探讨了如何有效利用大型因果循环图（CLD）来探索多方面的问题情境。我们讨论了开发大型因果循环图的条件、所面临的挑战以及可以用来克服这些挑战的技术。我们讨论了与在线小组模型构建（GMB）过程、定量数据的使用、使用软件工具进行可视化模型分析以及报告有关的几种技术。我们通过一个关于 COVID-19 大流行病社会影响的案例研究来展示这些技术。我们从系统思维的角度反思了该方法的有效性，并得出结论：这些技术对系统思维的各个方面都做出了积极贡献。我们还讨论了未来工作的若干途径。© 2023 作者。系统动力学评论》由 John Wiley & Sons Ltd 代表系统动力学学会出版。

引用次数: 0

Using causal loop diagrams to develop evaluative research propositions: opportunities and challenges in applications to nature-based solutions 使用因果循环图开发评价性研究命题：应用于基于自然的解决方案的机遇与挑战

IF 4.8 3区管理学 Q1 Social Sciences

System Dynamics Review

Pub Date : 2023-12-12 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1756

Miriam Alvarado, Jo Garrett, James Fullam, Rebecca Lovell, Cornelia Guell, Tim Taylor, Ruth Garside, Marianne Zandersen, Benedict W. Wheeler

Causal loop diagrams (CLDs) are often used to provide an overview of important systemic elements related to an issue, rather than to inform empirical evaluations (studies which assess changes following an intervention using observed data). We suggest that empirical evaluations may benefit from the development of systems-informed research propositions (specific testable causal assumptions with an emphasis on feedback loops) used to guide subsequent data collection, hypothesis testing and interpretation. We describe a qualitative systems-thinking informed approach building on preexisting CLDs, published evidence, and expert/stakeholder consultation and reflect on our experience applying this to the early stages of two nature-based solution (NBS) evaluations. We reflect on our experience and suggest that CLDs can be usefully employed to develop systems-informed research propositions to inform subsequent empirical evaluation. This may lead to novel policy-relevant research propositions which differ substantially from effectiveness-oriented (“did it work?”) research questions. © 2023 The Authors. System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.

因果循环图(CLDs)通常用于提供与问题相关的重要系统要素的概述，而不是为经验评估提供信息(使用观察到的数据评估干预后变化的研究)。我们建议，实证评估可能受益于系统信息研究命题(强调反馈循环的具体可测试因果假设)的发展，用于指导后续的数据收集、假设检验和解释。我们描述了一种定性的系统思考的知情方法，该方法建立在先前存在的cld，已发表的证据和专家/利益相关者咨询的基础上，并反思了我们将其应用于两个基于自然的解决方案(NBS)评估的早期阶段的经验。我们反思了我们的经验，并建议cld可以有效地用于开发系统知情的研究命题，以告知后续的实证评估。这可能导致新的与政策相关的研究命题，这些命题与以有效性为导向(“它有效吗?”)的研究问题有很大不同。©2023作者。John Wiley &出版的《系统动力学评论》;儿子有限公司代表系统动力学学会。

{"title":"Using causal loop diagrams to develop evaluative research propositions: opportunities and challenges in applications to nature-based solutions","authors":"Miriam Alvarado, Jo Garrett, James Fullam, Rebecca Lovell, Cornelia Guell, Tim Taylor, Ruth Garside, Marianne Zandersen, Benedict W. Wheeler","doi":"10.1002/sdr.1756","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1756","url":null,"abstract":"Causal loop diagrams (CLDs) are often used to provide an overview of important systemic elements related to an issue, rather than to inform empirical evaluations (studies which assess changes following an intervention using observed data). We suggest that empirical evaluations may benefit from the development of systems-informed research propositions (specific testable causal assumptions with an emphasis on feedback loops) used to guide subsequent data collection, hypothesis testing and interpretation. We describe a qualitative systems-thinking informed approach building on preexisting CLDs, published evidence, and expert/stakeholder consultation and reflect on our experience applying this to the early stages of two nature-based solution (NBS) evaluations. We reflect on our experience and suggest that CLDs can be usefully employed to develop systems-informed research propositions to inform subsequent empirical evaluation. This may lead to novel policy-relevant research propositions which differ substantially from effectiveness-oriented (“did it work?”) research questions. © 2023 The Authors. System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.","PeriodicalId":51500,"journal":{"name":"System Dynamics Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2023-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138631204","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Ethical considerations of using system dynamics in participatory settings: a social-ecological-systems perspective 在参与式环境中使用系统动力学的伦理考虑:社会生态系统的观点

IF 4.8 3区管理学 Q1 Social Sciences

System Dynamics Review

Pub Date : 2023-11-29 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1755

Henry Amorocho-Daza, Pieter van der Zaag, Janez Sušnik

The social-ecological systems (SES) approach elicits a broad understanding of some of the most pressing socionatural challenges (e.g. resource scarcity, biodiversity loss, and climate change) and the responsibility that humans have in addressing them. System dynamics has proven a powerful paradigm for dealing with complex SES-related issues. Here we discuss some ethical considerations of using system dynamics (SD) to model SES, something that is often either overlooked or discussed as an isolated issue. Sustainable development and human rights are used as ethical standpoints across the modelling cycle, opening the discussion around guiding principles that need to be considered when modelling SES. Based on these, a set of guiding ethical questions are identified and classified across a participatory SD modelling cycle. This structured approach is a simple yet potentially useful tool for SD practitioners to examine the ethical implications of their modelling endeavours in the context of grand societal challenges. © 2023 The Authors. System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.

社会生态系统(SES)方法促使人们对一些最紧迫的社会自然挑战(如资源稀缺、生物多样性丧失和气候变化)以及人类在应对这些挑战方面的责任有了广泛的理解。系统动力学已被证明是处理复杂的ses相关问题的强大范例。在这里，我们讨论一些使用系统动力学(SD)对SES建模的伦理考虑，这通常被忽视或作为一个孤立的问题进行讨论。可持续发展和人权被用作整个建模周期的道德立场，开启了围绕在SES建模时需要考虑的指导原则的讨论。在此基础上，在参与式可持续发展建模周期中确定并分类了一系列指导性道德问题。这种结构化的方法是一种简单但潜在有用的工具，可供可持续发展从业人员在重大社会挑战的背景下检查他们的建模工作的伦理影响。©2023作者。John Wiley &出版的《系统动力学评论》;儿子有限公司代表系统动力学学会。

{"title":"Ethical considerations of using system dynamics in participatory settings: a social-ecological-systems perspective","authors":"Henry Amorocho-Daza, Pieter van der Zaag, Janez Sušnik","doi":"10.1002/sdr.1755","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1755","url":null,"abstract":"The social-ecological systems (SES) approach elicits a broad understanding of some of the most pressing socionatural challenges (e.g. resource scarcity, biodiversity loss, and climate change) and the responsibility that humans have in addressing them. System dynamics has proven a powerful paradigm for dealing with complex SES-related issues. Here we discuss some ethical considerations of using system dynamics (SD) to model SES, something that is often either overlooked or discussed as an isolated issue. Sustainable development and human rights are used as ethical standpoints across the modelling cycle, opening the discussion around guiding principles that need to be considered when modelling SES. Based on these, a set of guiding ethical questions are identified and classified across a participatory SD modelling cycle. This structured approach is a simple yet potentially useful tool for SD practitioners to examine the ethical implications of their modelling endeavours in the context of grand societal challenges. © 2023 The Authors. System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.","PeriodicalId":51500,"journal":{"name":"System Dynamics Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2023-11-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138536061","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

首页上一页

下一页尾页

类型

全部化学•材料生命科学医学物理工程技术环境•农林材料科学地球科学法学管理学化学环境科学与生态学计算机科学教育学经济学农林科学人文科学生物学数学物理与天体物理心理学综合性期刊其他工业工程理学历史学农学文学信息工程

数据库

全部 ACS Publications Elsevier ieeexplore Springer The Royal Society of Chemistry Wiley

期刊

System Dynamics Review

全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.

﹀