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What Jay didn't tell us: hidden gems in the system dynamics practices of Jay W. Forrester 1 Jay没有告诉我们的:Jay W. Forrester的系统动力学实践中隐藏的宝石
IF 4.8 3区 管理学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-09-22 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1721
George P. Richardson
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引用次数: 3
Using analytical equations to represent nonlinear relationships 1 使用分析方程来表示非线性关系1
IF 4.8 3区 管理学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-09-11 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1718
J. Ríos‐Ocampo, M. Gary
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引用次数: 1
Documenting the modeling process with a standardized data structure described and implemented in DynamicVu 用DynamicVu中描述和实现的标准化数据结构记录建模过程
IF 4.8 3区 管理学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-08-30 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1716
Warren W. Farr, Samuel D. Allen, Andrada Tomoaia‐Cotisel, P. Hovmand
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引用次数: 3
Quantifying the COVID-19 endgame: Is a new normal within reach? 量化 COVID-19 的结局:新常态是否触手可及?
IF 4.8 3区 管理学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-08-24 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1715
Hazhir Rahmandad, John Sterman

Eradication of COVID-19 is out of reach. Are we close to a "new normal" in which people can leave behind restrictive non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) yet face a tolerable burden of disease? The answer depends on the ongoing risks versus communities' tolerance for those risks. Using a detailed model of the COVID-19 pandemic spanning 93 countries, we estimate the biological and behavioral factors determining the risks and responses, and project the likely course of COVID-19. Infection fatality rates have fallen significantly due to vaccination, prior infections, better treatments, and the less severe Omicron variant. Yet based on their estimated tolerance for deaths, most nations are not ready to live with COVID-19 without any NPIs. Across the world the increased transmissibility of Omicron, combined with the decay of immunity, leads to repeated episodes of reinfections, hospitalizations, and deaths, complicating the emergence of a new normal in many nations. © 2022 The Authors. System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.

根除 COVID-19 可望不可及。我们是否已接近一种 "新常态",即人们可以摆脱限制性非药物干预措施(NPIs),但却面临可以承受的疾病负担?答案取决于持续存在的风险与社区对这些风险的承受能力。利用横跨 93 个国家的 COVID-19 大流行的详细模型,我们估算了决定风险和应对措施的生物和行为因素,并预测了 COVID-19 的可能进程。由于疫苗接种、之前的感染、更好的治疗方法以及较轻的 Omicron 变种,感染死亡率已大幅下降。然而,根据对死亡的估计容忍度,大多数国家还没有准备好在没有任何 NPIs 的情况下与 COVID-19 共存。在全球范围内,奥米克隆的传播性增加,再加上免疫力下降,导致反复出现再感染、住院和死亡,使许多国家出现新常态的情况变得更加复杂。© 2022 作者。系统动力学评论》由 John Wiley & Sons Ltd 代表系统动力学学会出版。
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引用次数: 0
An elementary mechanism for simultaneously modeling discrete decisions and decision times 同时建模离散决策和决策时间的基本机制
IF 4.8 3区 管理学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-07-04 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1712
J. Yu
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引用次数: 1
Behavioral responses to risk promote vaccinating high-contact individuals first. 对风险的行为反应促使首先为高接触者接种疫苗。
IF 4.8 3区 管理学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-07-01 Epub Date: 2022-08-23 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1714
Hazhir Rahmandad

How should communities prioritize COVID-19 vaccinations? Prior studies found that prioritizing the elderly and most vulnerable minimizes deaths. However, prior research has ignored how behavioral responses to risk of disease endogenously change transmission rates. We show that incorporating risk-driven behavioral responses enhances fit to data and may change prioritization to vaccinating high-contact individuals. Behavioral responses matter because deaths grow exponentially until communities are compelled to reduce contacts, with deaths stabilizing at levels that oblige higher-contact groups to sufficiently cut their interactions and slow transmissions. More lives may be saved by vaccinating and taking those high-contact groups out of transmission chains earlier because the remaining groups will take more precautions while waiting for their turn for vaccination. These findings are especially important considering the need for further vaccination in many countries, the emergence of new variants, and the expected challenge of distributing new vaccines in the coming months and years. © 2022 The Author. System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.

社区应如何优先接种COVID-19疫苗?先前的研究发现,优先照顾老年人和最脆弱的人可以最大限度地减少死亡。然而,先前的研究忽略了对疾病风险的行为反应如何内源性地改变传播率。我们表明,纳入风险驱动的行为反应增强了对数据的契合性,并可能改变对高接触人群接种疫苗的优先级。行为反应很重要,因为死亡人数呈指数增长,直到社区被迫减少接触,死亡率稳定在迫使高接触群体充分减少互动和减缓传播的水平。通过接种疫苗并使这些高接触人群更早地脱离传播链,可以挽救更多的生命,因为其余人群在等待接种疫苗时将采取更多预防措施。考虑到许多国家需要进一步接种疫苗、新变种的出现以及在未来数月和数年内分发新疫苗的预期挑战,这些发现尤其重要。©2022作者。由John Wiley & Sons Ltd代表系统动力学学会出版的《系统动力学评论》。
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引用次数: 10
Fons et origo: reflections on the 60th anniversary of Industrial Dynamics Fons et origo:对《工业动力》60周年的反思
IF 4.8 3区 管理学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-07-01 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1717
D. Lane
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引用次数: 3
Pattern‐oriented analysis of system dynamics models via random forests 基于随机森林的系统动力学模型面向模式的分析
IF 4.8 3区 管理学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-05-26 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1706
Mert Edali
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引用次数: 1
Reflecting on factors influencing long‐lasting organisational effects of group model‐building interventions 反思影响群体模型构建干预长期组织效应的因素
IF 4.8 3区 管理学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-04-18 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1705
H. Herrera, N. Videira, H. Korzilius, K. Cordova-Pozo, M.H.F. McCardle-Keurentjes
:This paper focuses on participatory system dynamics as a platform for improving organisational decision making ultimately enhancing organisational performance. Based on past experiences and projects conducted by the authors, we offer reflections that aim to identify factors influencing the design and process of facilitated modelling interventions to achieve long-lasting effects, highlighting gaps in current literature and outlining a research agenda.
本文主要关注参与式系统动力学作为改进组织决策的平台,最终提高组织绩效。基于过去的经验和作者进行的项目,我们提供了一些反思,旨在确定影响促进建模干预的设计和过程的因素,以实现持久的效果,突出当前文献中的差距并概述研究议程。
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引用次数: 0
The 2021 Jay Wright Forrester Award citation for the award recipients: James Rogers, Edward Gallaher, and David Dingli 2021年杰伊·赖特·弗雷斯特奖获奖者:詹姆斯·罗杰斯,爱德华·加拉赫和大卫·丁利
IF 4.8 3区 管理学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-04-01 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1707
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引用次数: 0
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System Dynamics Review
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