Pub Date : 2023-11-29DOI: 10.1177/15270025231217965
Thomas J. Miceli
Since its inception, a core principle of sports economics has been the claim that fans desire balanced competition—the so-called Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis (UOH). While this idea has intuitive appeal, it runs counter to the equally obvious importance of partisanship in shaping fan interest in sporting contests. The absence of a well-accepted theoretical basis for the UOH, coupled with a lack of compelling empirical evidence in support of it, suggests important gaps in the literature. This paper takes a step toward addressing the former need by offering a contest utility function, based on standard Cobb-Douglas preferences, which embodies both partisanship and a demand for competitive balance. The model is used to derive a willingness-to-pay function for game tickets and an expression for aggregate attendance. Findings from the empirical literature are discussed in light of the analysis.
{"title":"A Note on the Preferences of Sports Fans: Partisanship Versus Uncertainty of Outcome","authors":"Thomas J. Miceli","doi":"10.1177/15270025231217965","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/15270025231217965","url":null,"abstract":"Since its inception, a core principle of sports economics has been the claim that fans desire balanced competition—the so-called Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis (UOH). While this idea has intuitive appeal, it runs counter to the equally obvious importance of partisanship in shaping fan interest in sporting contests. The absence of a well-accepted theoretical basis for the UOH, coupled with a lack of compelling empirical evidence in support of it, suggests important gaps in the literature. This paper takes a step toward addressing the former need by offering a contest utility function, based on standard Cobb-Douglas preferences, which embodies both partisanship and a demand for competitive balance. The model is used to derive a willingness-to-pay function for game tickets and an expression for aggregate attendance. Findings from the empirical literature are discussed in light of the analysis.","PeriodicalId":51522,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Sports Economics","volume":"32 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-11-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139209424","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-01DOI: 10.1177/15270025231204997
David Winkelmann, Marius Ötting, Christian Deutscher, Tomasz Makarewicz
Previous literature leaves the impression that betting market inefficiencies are widespread. However, most studies rely upon limited data and ignore biases’ persistence. Our simulation-based analyses show (1) the impact of low sample sizes on the chance to detect markets that only appear to be efficient and (2) the frequency of observing inefficient periods within fully efficient markets. Afterwards, we (3) empirically analyze real-world football betting markets for 14 consecutive seasons. While inefficiencies occur in singular seasons, they are not persistent or systematic across leagues. Moreover, our simulation-based analyses suggest that statistically significant effects in single seasons are likely to be observed even under full market efficiency.
{"title":"Are Betting Markets Inefficient? Evidence From Simulations and Real Data","authors":"David Winkelmann, Marius Ötting, Christian Deutscher, Tomasz Makarewicz","doi":"10.1177/15270025231204997","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/15270025231204997","url":null,"abstract":"Previous literature leaves the impression that betting market inefficiencies are widespread. However, most studies rely upon limited data and ignore biases’ persistence. Our simulation-based analyses show (1) the impact of low sample sizes on the chance to detect markets that only appear to be efficient and (2) the frequency of observing inefficient periods within fully efficient markets. Afterwards, we (3) empirically analyze real-world football betting markets for 14 consecutive seasons. While inefficiencies occur in singular seasons, they are not persistent or systematic across leagues. Moreover, our simulation-based analyses suggest that statistically significant effects in single seasons are likely to be observed even under full market efficiency.","PeriodicalId":51522,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Sports Economics","volume":"57 12","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135327682","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-25DOI: 10.1177/15270025231206470
Dmitry Dagaev, Sofia Paklina, J. James Reade, Carl Singleton
Using the assignment of referees to European international association football matches played between 2002 and 2016, we ask whether judgments were biased according to the legacy of the Cold War. We find that referees from post-communist states favored teams from non-communist states, but there was no evidence of favoritism in the other direction. This out-group bias of referees born behind the Iron Curtain was statistically significant for relatively less important and more subjective decisions, namely the awarding of yellow cards for foul play. The bias was particularly large among referees from the former Soviet Union. It has also diminished over time, perhaps due to increased professionalism in European refereeing, or because memories of the Cold War era have diminished among active referees.
{"title":"The Iron Curtain and Referee Bias in International Football","authors":"Dmitry Dagaev, Sofia Paklina, J. James Reade, Carl Singleton","doi":"10.1177/15270025231206470","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/15270025231206470","url":null,"abstract":"Using the assignment of referees to European international association football matches played between 2002 and 2016, we ask whether judgments were biased according to the legacy of the Cold War. We find that referees from post-communist states favored teams from non-communist states, but there was no evidence of favoritism in the other direction. This out-group bias of referees born behind the Iron Curtain was statistically significant for relatively less important and more subjective decisions, namely the awarding of yellow cards for foul play. The bias was particularly large among referees from the former Soviet Union. It has also diminished over time, perhaps due to increased professionalism in European refereeing, or because memories of the Cold War era have diminished among active referees.","PeriodicalId":51522,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Sports Economics","volume":"59 4","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134972396","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-17DOI: 10.1177/15270025231206393
Igor Drapkin, Savin Ivan, Zverev Ilya
This paper contributes to the literature examining the impact of large-scale sport events (LSEs) on international tourist inflows from 1995 to 2019. Our proposed method involves the calculation of tourist potential and the analysis of actual-to-potential ratios before and after the event. This approach allows us to measure the effect of LSE on a particular hosting country rather than its average effect. Our findings demonstrate a strong “crowding-out” effect for international tourists, with only four out of 18 LSEs resulting in a positive effect on tourist arrivals in the host country.
{"title":"Revisiting the Effect of Hosting Large-Scale Sport Events on International Tourist Inflows","authors":"Igor Drapkin, Savin Ivan, Zverev Ilya","doi":"10.1177/15270025231206393","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/15270025231206393","url":null,"abstract":"This paper contributes to the literature examining the impact of large-scale sport events (LSEs) on international tourist inflows from 1995 to 2019. Our proposed method involves the calculation of tourist potential and the analysis of actual-to-potential ratios before and after the event. This approach allows us to measure the effect of LSE on a particular hosting country rather than its average effect. Our findings demonstrate a strong “crowding-out” effect for international tourists, with only four out of 18 LSEs resulting in a positive effect on tourist arrivals in the host country.","PeriodicalId":51522,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Sports Economics","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136034214","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-12DOI: 10.1177/15270025231200890
Scott C Ganz, Kieran Allsop
The existence of a home-court advantage is one of the most durable empirical patterns in all of sports. Yet, the mechanisms explaining its strength and persistence remain a mystery in large part because of well-known challenges with statistical identification. We use attendance restrictions in place during the 2020–2021 National Basketball Association regular season as an instrument in order to identify the effect of fans and crowd size on home-court advantage. We show that home teams win by [Formula: see text] points, on average, when fans are present at games compared with [Formula: see text] points when no fans are present. This equates to winning approximately 2.2 additional home games over the course of a regular season. In fixed effects instrumental variables regression models, we estimate that the marginal effect of an additional one thousand fans on home-court advantage is [Formula: see text] points. We conclude that the mere presence of home fans, on its own, explains a larger share of home-court advantage than previously thought.
{"title":"A Mere Fan Effect on Home-Court Advantage","authors":"Scott C Ganz, Kieran Allsop","doi":"10.1177/15270025231200890","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/15270025231200890","url":null,"abstract":"The existence of a home-court advantage is one of the most durable empirical patterns in all of sports. Yet, the mechanisms explaining its strength and persistence remain a mystery in large part because of well-known challenges with statistical identification. We use attendance restrictions in place during the 2020–2021 National Basketball Association regular season as an instrument in order to identify the effect of fans and crowd size on home-court advantage. We show that home teams win by [Formula: see text] points, on average, when fans are present at games compared with [Formula: see text] points when no fans are present. This equates to winning approximately 2.2 additional home games over the course of a regular season. In fixed effects instrumental variables regression models, we estimate that the marginal effect of an additional one thousand fans on home-court advantage is [Formula: see text] points. We conclude that the mere presence of home fans, on its own, explains a larger share of home-court advantage than previously thought.","PeriodicalId":51522,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Sports Economics","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135830546","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-11DOI: 10.1177/15270025231200889
Tim F. Thormann, Pamela Wicker
Drawing on a rational choice framework, this study investigates fans’ stated preferences for (more) environmentally-friendly stadium travel (bicycles/e-scooters) on game days. Data from fans of a German Football Bundesliga club were collected using an online survey in 2021 ( n = 1,652). Travel preferences were assessed using the contingent behavior method. The results of regression analyses indicate that the likelihood of using environmentally-friendly transportation means increases with perceived benefits, while perceived costs decrease this likelihood. Specifically, perceived environmental benefits and being an environmental role model had a positive effect, while monetary, convenience, and time-related costs had a negative effect.
{"title":"Environmentally-Friendly Stadium Travel of Football Fans: A Stated Preferences Study","authors":"Tim F. Thormann, Pamela Wicker","doi":"10.1177/15270025231200889","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/15270025231200889","url":null,"abstract":"Drawing on a rational choice framework, this study investigates fans’ stated preferences for (more) environmentally-friendly stadium travel (bicycles/e-scooters) on game days. Data from fans of a German Football Bundesliga club were collected using an online survey in 2021 ( n = 1,652). Travel preferences were assessed using the contingent behavior method. The results of regression analyses indicate that the likelihood of using environmentally-friendly transportation means increases with perceived benefits, while perceived costs decrease this likelihood. Specifically, perceived environmental benefits and being an environmental role model had a positive effect, while monetary, convenience, and time-related costs had a negative effect.","PeriodicalId":51522,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Sports Economics","volume":"49 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135980408","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-06DOI: 10.1177/15270025231197427
Moonsup Hyun, Gareth J. Jones, W. Jee, Jeremy S. Jordan, James Du, Yohan Lee
The unparalleled popularity of major professional sports leagues in the United States has led to numerous sold-out events, regardless of the uncertainty surrounding the game's outcome. This phenomenon prompts us to examine the relationship between outcome uncertainty and attendance, specifically in matchups between high-quality teams compared to games involving lower-quality teams in the National Basketball Association (NBA). Based on our analyses, we have discovered a notable distinction in the relationship between outcome uncertainty and attendance in high-quality games. When analyzing high-quality games, we observed a linear relationship between these two variables that was only marginally significant. Conversely, when exploring nonhigh-quality games, a U-shaped relationship emerged between outcome uncertainty and attendance. While the attendance of nonhigh-quality games was influenced by varying levels of uncertainty, high-quality games attracted fans irrespective of the outcome uncertainty. This research provides valuable insights into the factors that contribute to the popularity and attendance of NBA games.
{"title":"Revisiting the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis and the Loss Aversion Hypothesis in the National Basketball Association: Adding a Predicted Game Quality Perspective","authors":"Moonsup Hyun, Gareth J. Jones, W. Jee, Jeremy S. Jordan, James Du, Yohan Lee","doi":"10.1177/15270025231197427","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/15270025231197427","url":null,"abstract":"The unparalleled popularity of major professional sports leagues in the United States has led to numerous sold-out events, regardless of the uncertainty surrounding the game's outcome. This phenomenon prompts us to examine the relationship between outcome uncertainty and attendance, specifically in matchups between high-quality teams compared to games involving lower-quality teams in the National Basketball Association (NBA). Based on our analyses, we have discovered a notable distinction in the relationship between outcome uncertainty and attendance in high-quality games. When analyzing high-quality games, we observed a linear relationship between these two variables that was only marginally significant. Conversely, when exploring nonhigh-quality games, a U-shaped relationship emerged between outcome uncertainty and attendance. While the attendance of nonhigh-quality games was influenced by varying levels of uncertainty, high-quality games attracted fans irrespective of the outcome uncertainty. This research provides valuable insights into the factors that contribute to the popularity and attendance of NBA games.","PeriodicalId":51522,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Sports Economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45697077","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-01DOI: 10.1177/15270025231190647
Christopher Jepsen
Although economists regularly use sports to study labor-market outcomes, nearly all sports-related studies focus on men. Instead, this paper looks at career breaks and career exits for women's basketball, with a focus on race/ethnicity and country of birth. Data are from the start of the Women's National Basketball Association in 1997 through the 2019 season. White players and foreign-born players have higher likelihoods of leaving the league, conditional on player demographics and productivity.
{"title":"Determinants of Career Exits and Career Breaks in Women's Professional Basketball","authors":"Christopher Jepsen","doi":"10.1177/15270025231190647","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/15270025231190647","url":null,"abstract":"Although economists regularly use sports to study labor-market outcomes, nearly all sports-related studies focus on men. Instead, this paper looks at career breaks and career exits for women's basketball, with a focus on race/ethnicity and country of birth. Data are from the start of the Women's National Basketball Association in 1997 through the 2019 season. White players and foreign-born players have higher likelihoods of leaving the league, conditional on player demographics and productivity.","PeriodicalId":51522,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Sports Economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48849789","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-25DOI: 10.1177/15270025231187067
Travis Richardson, Georgios Nalbantis, T. Pawlowski
This study provides first evidence on how belief dynamics are driving entertainment utility and consequently the demand for sports across markets by analyzing minute-by-minute audience data of UEFA Champions League (UCL) games televised in the UK and the Spanish market during a full (pre-COVID) cycle of broadcasting rights. Overall, we find that suspense and surprise are the main drivers of demand in both markets while shock only has marginal effects in the Spanish market. Interestingly, we find a combined impact of suspense and surprise in the UK market that is of similar magnitude as reported in a previous study for English Premier League matches in the UK. In the Spanish market, however, the combined impact is considerably larger.
{"title":"Emotional Cues and the Demand for Televised Sports: Evidence from the UEFA Champions League","authors":"Travis Richardson, Georgios Nalbantis, T. Pawlowski","doi":"10.1177/15270025231187067","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/15270025231187067","url":null,"abstract":"This study provides first evidence on how belief dynamics are driving entertainment utility and consequently the demand for sports across markets by analyzing minute-by-minute audience data of UEFA Champions League (UCL) games televised in the UK and the Spanish market during a full (pre-COVID) cycle of broadcasting rights. Overall, we find that suspense and surprise are the main drivers of demand in both markets while shock only has marginal effects in the Spanish market. Interestingly, we find a combined impact of suspense and surprise in the UK market that is of similar magnitude as reported in a previous study for English Premier League matches in the UK. In the Spanish market, however, the combined impact is considerably larger.","PeriodicalId":51522,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Sports Economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45988278","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-17DOI: 10.1177/15270025231187880
Fabienne Jedelhauser, Raphael Flepp, E. Franck
While second-tier stars lack popularity compared to superstars, their marginal contribution to team performance on the pitch relative to that of superstars is unknown. Relying on league-specific preseason market value distributions to define superstars and second-tier stars, we compare the marginal contributions of superstars and second-tier stars to team performance on the pitch in the top five European football leagues. Examining the impact of unexpected injury-related absences, we find that second-tier stars’ marginal contribution is at least equal to that of superstars. Thus, the players with arguably the highest costs for clubs do not contribute accordingly to short-run sportive success.
{"title":"Overshadowed by Popularity: The Value of Second-Tier Stars in European Football","authors":"Fabienne Jedelhauser, Raphael Flepp, E. Franck","doi":"10.1177/15270025231187880","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/15270025231187880","url":null,"abstract":"While second-tier stars lack popularity compared to superstars, their marginal contribution to team performance on the pitch relative to that of superstars is unknown. Relying on league-specific preseason market value distributions to define superstars and second-tier stars, we compare the marginal contributions of superstars and second-tier stars to team performance on the pitch in the top five European football leagues. Examining the impact of unexpected injury-related absences, we find that second-tier stars’ marginal contribution is at least equal to that of superstars. Thus, the players with arguably the highest costs for clubs do not contribute accordingly to short-run sportive success.","PeriodicalId":51522,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Sports Economics","volume":"56 1","pages":"1026 - 1054"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139358571","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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