Foresight最新文献

Purpose

This study aims to examine the association between women on board and business performance. It also aims to investigate the impact of corporate social responsibility (CSR) and female directors on stock prices, including the function of female directors in moderating the CSR–market performance link that ultimately provides valuable insights into the impact of gender diversity on corporate boards.

Design/methodology/approach

Data from US publicly listed firms between 2000 and 2018 were collected and analysed using OLS regression, median regression, M-estimator regression and MM-estimator regression at 70% and 95% efficiency. In this study, firm market value was measured through Tobin’s Q, board diversity with ISS database and CSR strength and concern with the KLD database.

Findings

The results indicated that CSR positively impacts market performance by 3.1%, female board representation positively influences market performance by 4.8% and female board members strengthen the CSR–market performance relationship by 1.0% while playing a moderating role. Overall, these studies demonstrated the significance of female boards of directors for enhancing market performance.

Research limitations/implications

This study used the data of US-listed firms from 2000 to 2018. The results have contributed to the ongoing discussion about the importance of gender diversity in boards and its influence on firm success. Further research works are suggested to expand the analysis by including other countries or considering additional factors that may influence the association between CSR, board representation of women and market share.

Practical implications

This study is essential for investors, legislators and CSR institutions in developed countries. The favourable impact of female board presence on market performance and the enhancement of the CSR–market performance relationship highlight the necessity of encouraging gender diversity on boards of directors and CSR activities.

Social implications

This study emphasises the significance of gender balance on corporate boards in solving important social challenges including climate change, resource scarcity and gender equality. Companies can actively assist in addressing global issues and improving the well-being of stakeholders by promoting gender-diverse boards and encouraging CSR efforts.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first study demonstrating that gender diversity on corporate boards moderates the significant association between CSR performance and profitability in the USA. It has contributed to the expanding body of information regarding the moderating influence of female directors on firm value and stronger eviden

Purpose

This paper aims to further the understanding of Open Government Data (OGD) adoption by the government by invoking two quantum physics theories – percolation theory and expander graph theory.

Design/methodology/approach

Extant research on the barriers to adoption and rollout of OGD is reviewed to drive home the research question for the present study. Both the theories are summarized, and lessons are derived therefrom for answering the research question.

Findings

The percolation theory solves the riddle of why the OGD initiatives find it difficult to seep across the hierarchical and geographical levels of any administrative division. The expander graph theory builds the understanding of the need for having networking among and within the key government personnel for bolstering the motivation and capacity building of the operational personnel linked with the OGD initiative. The theoretical understanding also aids in the implementation and institutionalization of OGD in general.

Originality/value

Intersectionality of domains for conducting research on any theme is always a need. Given the fact that there are innumerable challenges regarding the adoption of OGD by the governments across the world, the application of the two theories of quantum physics might solve the quandary in a befitting way.

Purpose

This study aims to explore the effect of whistleblowing and interpretation among practitioners in the Nigerian economy. The research puts a premium on understanding the relevance and critical issues in its practices and developing an improved model for the effective practice of whistleblowing and interpretation in Nigeria.

Design/methodology/approach

This study adopted a conceptual approach, relying on extant literature to understand the management of whistleblowing incidents and identify the managers’ and other stakeholders’ responsibility in the whistleblowing process. It applied systems dynamics conceptual modelling and presented an improvement approach to addressing the complexities associated with whistleblowing and interpretation among Nigerian organizations.

Findings

This study contributed to the extant literature by developing a model for proper management of whistleblowing in the Nigerian context and enhancing the robust practice of whistleblowing and interpretation in Nigeria. The findings highlighted critical factors such as managers’ skills development, legal system support, institutional stakeholders’ function and ethical balance as key factors to effective whistleblowing management and interpretation. This implies that the act of identifying and developing responses to an emerging case of whistleblowing requires a process of developing underpinning assumptions, engagement and consideration of stakeholders’ interests while driving the sustenance of organizational focus.

Originality/value

This study emphasized the departure from absolute best practice to developing idea approaches that reflect stakeholders’ interests and the context of whistleblowing and interpretation. While the study acknowledges limitations in the sole focus on the Nigerian private sector and the Nigerian economic background, it recommends further exploration of whistleblowing and its interpretation on a comparative approach, to improving the current understanding of the topic.

Purpose

Due to e-commerce growth, technological advancements and environmental concerns, developing a more nuanced service portfolio has become a critical issue for last-mile logistics service providers. Concurrently, consumers are adopting new modes of consumption. This paper aims to investigate the potential for last-mile logistics service providers to act as intermediaries in access-based consumption and to revitalise their service offerings through product-service systems – a pioneering strategy not executed in the market yet.

Design/methodology/approach

This strategic customer foresight study uses a quantitative survey of 1,000 respondents and an online focus group comprising 10 early adopter consumers to investigate emerging last-mile service models. Potential service concepts were identified through the survey, and two distinct concepts were subsequently selected for evaluation and co-development within the focus group. The research was conducted in partnership with an SME logistics company in Finland.

Findings

The consumers expressed selective interest in access-based consumption related to the proposed offering of essential household goods. Young adults and consumers in early middle age living in the city centre emerged as the most potential user groups. Economic reasons and short-term needs were the primary motivations for adopting access-based consumption.

Practical implications

The study showed that engaging consumers in a customer foresight process is viable for SMEs innovating their offerings and demonstrates how the process works in practice.

Originality/value

Documented cases of customer integration into foresight processes are rare in earlier research, and this paper extends the knowledge base through a multidisciplinary examination of future consumer behaviour in the last-mile logistics domain. The paper also expands the limited literature on the role of logistics in access-based consumption.

Purpose

Indian railways (IR) is one of the largest railway networks in the world. As a part of its strategic development initiative, demand forecasting can be one of the indispensable activities, as it may provide basic inputs for planning and control of various activities such as coach production, planning new trains, coach augmentation and quota redistribution. The purpose of this study is to suggest an approach to demand forecasting for IR management.

Design/methodology/approach

A case study is carried out, wherein several models i.e. automated autoregressive integrated moving average (auto-ARIMA), trigonometric regressors (TBATS), Holt–Winters additive model, Holt–Winters multiplicative model, simple exponential smoothing and simple moving average methods have been tested. As per requirements of IR management, the adopted research methodology is predominantly discursive, and the passenger reservation patterns over a five-year period covering a most representative train service for the past five years have been employed. The relative error matrix and the Akaike information criterion have been used to compare the performance of various models. The Diebold–Mariano test was conducted to examine the accuracy of models.

Findings

The coach production strategy has been proposed on the most suitable auto-ARIMA model. Around 6,000 railway coaches per year have been produced in the past 3 years by IR. As per the coach production plan for the year 2023–2024, a tentative 6551 coaches of various types have been planned for production. The insights gained from this paper may facilitate need-based coach manufacturing and optimum utilization of the inventory.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the literature on rail ticket demand forecasting and adds value to the process of rolling stock management. The proposed model can be a comprehensive decision-making tool to plan for new train services and assess the rolling stock production requirement on any railway system. The analysis may help in making demand predictions for the busy season, and the management can make important decisions about the pricing of services.

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to identify the drivers and future scenarios of Iran’s Social Security Organization.

Design/methodology/approach

The research is applied in terms of orientation and mixed in terms of methodology. In this research, the methods of theme analysis, root definitions, fuzzy Delphi and Cocoso were used. The theoretical population is the managers and senior experts of the social security organization, and the sampling method was done in a judgmental way. The tools of data collection were interviews and questionnaires. The interview tool was used to extract the main and subdrivers of the research and develop the scenarios.

Findings

Through theme analysis, 35 subdrivers were extracted in the form of economic, sociocultural, financial and investment, policy, marketing, environmental and legal themes. Due to the large number of subdrivers, these factors were screened with fuzzy Delphi. Eleven drivers had defuzzied coefficient higher than 0.7 and were selected for final prioritization. The final drivers were prioritized with the CoCoSo technique, and the two drivers of social security holdings governance and state of government revenues had the highest priority. Based on these two drivers, four scenarios of prosperity, resilient social security, unstable development and collapse have been developed.

Originality/value

Some of the suggestions of the research are: using the capacity of FinTechs and financial startups to invest the government revenues of the organization, using digital technologies such as business intelligence for more efficient decisions and developing corporate governance in the organization.

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to propose an innovative and efficient process in urban policy-making that combines a divergent and creative method with a convergent and strategic one. At the same time, the purpose is also to propose a useful innovation to enforce the usability of both methods. On the one hand, mission-oriented policies run the risk of being overly focused on the present and of not being able to develop preparedness in organization. On the other hand, scenario development has the reverse problem it often does not point out how to use scenario narratives to inform and devise short-term strategic actions.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper proposes an innovative methodological approach, the mission-oriented scenarios, which hybridizes Mazzucato's mission-oriented public policy framework with Jim Dator's Manoa school four futures method. The proposed methodological innovation emerges from a urban foresight academic-led project carried out in the context of the Metropolitan City of Turin, Italy, where a first application of the mission-oriented scenarios was tested on six different focal issues (from reindustrialization to cultural policies) and the scenario narratives were used as sources for the grounding of 12 missions and 48 strategic actions towards 2030.

Findings

Mission-oriented scenarios can contribute to the generation of more sustainable and inclusive urban public policies. This methodological proposal is based on an original mix of knowledge exchange procedures borrowed from methodological approaches with different backgrounds: the mission-oriented and the archetypal scenarios. Their conjunction could support the formulation of ambitious yet pragmatic policies, giving a plurality of actors the opportunity to act and establish fruitful and lasting partnerships.

Originality/value

The paper reconstructs one of the first urban foresight projects carried out in a major Italian city by two prestigious universities and exposes a methodological innovation resulting from reflection on the strengths and weaknesses of the project, which opens the door to the development of a new scenario technique.

Purpose

Despite significant progress in Iran's immunization programs, vaccine policymaking in the country still faces various challenges and shortcomings. To address these issues and ensure sustained progress toward achieving comprehensive vaccination policies, it is essential to identify the critical factors influencing vaccine policies in Iran. Our study aims to provide evidence-based insights that can inform the development of effective and equitable vaccine strategies, leading to a more sustainable and efficient approach to vaccination in the country.

Design/methodology/approach

This mixed-method study aimed to analyze the factors influencing the future of human vaccine policy using Cross Impact Analysis. Firstly, a scoping review was conducted to identify the factors affecting the future of human vaccine development. Secondly, a semi-structured interview was conducted with experts in this field to add more factors and confirm the identified factors within the Iranian context. Finally, a Cross-Impact Analysis (CIA) approach was applied to comprehend the complex relationships between the identified factors. Thematic analysis was used for the qualitative data, and MICMAC analysis was applied to characterize the relationships between the factors.

Findings

Seventeen key driving force factors were identified through comprehensive review and interviews. These factors were assigned weighted values ranging from zero to three and subsequently analyzed using MICMAC software. Employing the Cross-Impact Analysis (CIA) technique, the study characterized the impact of each factor on vaccine policy and elucidated the intricate interactions between them. The findings underscored that robust leadership and governance, an innovative ecosystem, and well-established immunization information systems emerged as pivotal driving forces shaping vaccine policy in Iran.

Research limitations/implications

While this study contributes valuable insights into the driving factors influencing vaccine policy in Iran, it is important to acknowledge several limitations. The results rely on the subjective perceptions of a diverse group of specialists, and future research could delve into additional factors in other countries to identify common themes and differences.

Practical implications

This study provides evidence to assist policymakers in making informed decisions regarding vaccines in Iran. The findings suggest that enhancing access to vaccines, fostering trust in the healthcare system, and prioritizing equity in distribution can contribute to increased vaccination rates and a reduction in vaccine-preventable diseases.

Originality/value

This study provides a unique contribution to the field of vaccine policy by utilizing the cross-impact analysis to examine the

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to create a methodological approach for identifying priority areas for science and technology (S&T) development and its empirical application within the city of Moscow. This research uncovers a wide range of multicultural and multidisciplinary global trends that will affect the development of major cities in an era of complexity and uncertainty, including the inherent complexity of urban contexts, demographic and socioeconomic trends, as well as scientific and ecological factors.

Design/methodology/approach

The methodological approach is based on classic foresight instruments. Its novelty lays in the blending of qualitative and quantitative methods specially selected as the most appropriate for the identification of S&T areas in an era of complexity and uncertainty, including horizon scanning, bibliometric analysis, expert surveys and the construction of composite indexes with respect to the scope and resources of the research and the selected object for empirical application – Moscow, which is one of the world’s largest megacities. The analysis was performed for the period of 2009–2018 and expert procedures took place in 2019.

Findings

As a result, 25 global trends were identified, evaluated and discussed over the course of an expert survey and subsequent expert events. Ten priority areas of S&T development were determined, including 62 technological sub-areas within them and the most important market niches for all identified technological sub-areas, which could be useful for the world’s megacities. The results of this study are illustrated using the construction sector. Based on the conducted research and results, a list of recommendations on S&T policy measures and instruments were suggested, including the creation of the Moscow Innovation Cluster, which by the end of 2023 contained more than 6,000 projects and initiatives, selected using the findings of this investigation.

Originality/value

This research contributes to the existing literature and research agenda of setting priorities for S&T development and shows how it can be done for a megacity. The blended foresight methodology that was created within the study satisfies the criteria of scientific originality, is repeatable for any interested researcher, is applicable to any other city in the world and demonstrates its high efficiency in empirical application. It could be used for creating new agenda items in S&T policy, setting S&T priorities for a megacity and integrating the results into decision-making processes. This study provides recommendations on the further implementation of the designed methodology and results into a policymaking system. Moreover, the example of the Moscow Innovation Cluster, which was created based on the results of our research, demonstrates these recommendations