{"title":"Heterogenous Effects of Entering the Labor Market During a Recession—New Evidence from Germany","authors":"Matthias Umkehrer","doi":"10.1093/CESIFO/IFZ003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/CESIFO/IFZ003","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51748,"journal":{"name":"Cesifo Economic Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2019-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/CESIFO/IFZ003","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43846180","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Engines of the Skill Premium in the Portuguese Economy","authors":"Manuel Carlos Nogueira, Óscar Afonso","doi":"10.1093/CESIFO/IFZ007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/CESIFO/IFZ007","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51748,"journal":{"name":"Cesifo Economic Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2019-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/CESIFO/IFZ007","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48161794","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Base erosion and profit shifting undermines tax revenues collection and raises public discontent in times when the tax burden has increased significantly for households in most developed economies. In addition, new forms of profit shifting related to intangible investment have emerged rapidly along the traditional use of transfer pricing and debt shifting by multinational companies. In this article, using worldwide company level data for the period 2004–2013, we demonstrate that the sectoral differences in profit shifting are a serious concern from a welfare and policy perspectives. Sectors performing more profit shifting lower their average cost of capital and are thus able to attract more investment to the detriment of sectors less able to dodge taxes. We develop a multilevel model and provide indirect evidence of the welfare costs caused by profit shifting by estimating the cross-sectoral variance of semi-elasticity of declared profit. We also demonstrate that having a larger share of intangible assets is not per se related to more profit shifting and that it may point instead to cross-sectoral differences. Finally, we detect almost no financial shifting and find that the largest part of profit shifting is done by means of transfer pricing.
{"title":"Profit Shifting and Industrial Heterogeneity","authors":"S. Barrios, Diego d’Andria","doi":"10.1093/CESIFO/IFZ006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/CESIFO/IFZ006","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Base erosion and profit shifting undermines tax revenues collection and raises public discontent in times when the tax burden has increased significantly for households in most developed economies. In addition, new forms of profit shifting related to intangible investment have emerged rapidly along the traditional use of transfer pricing and debt shifting by multinational companies. In this article, using worldwide company level data for the period 2004–2013, we demonstrate that the sectoral differences in profit shifting are a serious concern from a welfare and policy perspectives. Sectors performing more profit shifting lower their average cost of capital and are thus able to attract more investment to the detriment of sectors less able to dodge taxes. We develop a multilevel model and provide indirect evidence of the welfare costs caused by profit shifting by estimating the cross-sectoral variance of semi-elasticity of declared profit. We also demonstrate that having a larger share of intangible assets is not per se related to more profit shifting and that it may point instead to cross-sectoral differences. Finally, we detect almost no financial shifting and find that the largest part of profit shifting is done by means of transfer pricing.","PeriodicalId":51748,"journal":{"name":"Cesifo Economic Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2019-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/CESIFO/IFZ006","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48093677","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article utilizes an expenditure survey-based data set that is rich in terms of observable characteristics to estimate the ‘income gap’ (defined to be one minus the proportion of reported to true income) of the self-employed in Great Britain. It also estimates the evasion response of the individual characteristics of the self-employed. It emerges that self-employed report, on average, around 80.4% of their income to the tax authority, which translates into an income-gap of 19.6% which varies significantly by sex, age, and region. In particular, male self-employed taxpayers under-report more than female ones, and they, in general, become more compliant as they age. Particular emphasis is paid to verifying that the income gap observed cannot be explained by other reasons than under-reporting. (JEL codes: H26, O17, D12, E26)
{"title":"Self-Employment Income Gap in Great Britain: How Much and Who?","authors":"A. C. G. Cabral, Christos Kotsogiannis, G. Myles","doi":"10.1093/CESIFO/IFY015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/CESIFO/IFY015","url":null,"abstract":"This article utilizes an expenditure survey-based data set that is rich in terms of observable characteristics to estimate the ‘income gap’ (defined to be one minus the proportion of reported to true income) of the self-employed in Great Britain. It also estimates the evasion response of the individual characteristics of the self-employed. It emerges that self-employed report, on average, around 80.4% of their income to the tax authority, which translates into an income-gap of 19.6% which varies significantly by sex, age, and region. In particular, male self-employed taxpayers under-report more than female ones, and they, in general, become more compliant as they age. Particular emphasis is paid to verifying that the income gap observed cannot be explained by other reasons than under-reporting. (JEL codes: H26, O17, D12, E26)","PeriodicalId":51748,"journal":{"name":"Cesifo Economic Studies","volume":"65 1","pages":"84-107"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2019-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/CESIFO/IFY015","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48967631","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper analyzes the differences in labor demand between family and non-family firms. The majority of firms in modern economies are still family controlled. In addition, these firms seem to exhibit better employment performance than other companies. Therefore, this study estimates a labor demand model with German establishment panel data. Moreover, a Heckman correction is introduced to the regressions to avoid selectivity. The results of random effects and fractional panel probit estimations indicate that own-wage and output elasticities are lower in absolute values, thus supporting the assumption that family firms offer higher job security and are more risk averse than other establishments. However, this result does not hold if the investigation is restricted to establishments with 20 or more employees. There is no evidence of different behavior in larger family firms.
{"title":"Family firms and labor demand: Size matters - but only the small ones are different","authors":"Arnd Kölling","doi":"10.1093/CESIFO/IFY012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/CESIFO/IFY012","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyzes the differences in labor demand between family and non-family firms. The majority of firms in modern economies are still family controlled. In addition, these firms seem to exhibit better employment performance than other companies. Therefore, this study estimates a labor demand model with German establishment panel data. Moreover, a Heckman correction is introduced to the regressions to avoid selectivity. The results of random effects and fractional panel probit estimations indicate that own-wage and output elasticities are lower in absolute values, thus supporting the assumption that family firms offer higher job security and are more risk averse than other establishments. However, this result does not hold if the investigation is restricted to establishments with 20 or more employees. There is no evidence of different behavior in larger family firms.","PeriodicalId":51748,"journal":{"name":"Cesifo Economic Studies","volume":"65 1","pages":"108-129"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2019-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/CESIFO/IFY012","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47256336","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We document that switching from laissez-faire production to public procurement in residential waste collection in Finland reduces the number of firms active in the local market, but induces a statistically significant and large decrease in unit prices on average. While public procurement, thus, seems to be desirable from the citizens’ perspective, not all municipalities adopt public procurement. We provide descriptive evidence that municipal council composition is associated with the chosen regime. This suggests that local politics may be one obstacle for the efficient provision of local public goods. (JEL codes: C23, D72, H76, L13, and L85).
{"title":"Public Procurement versus Laissez-Faire: Evidence from Household Waste Collection","authors":"Jaakko Meriläinen, Janne Tukiainen","doi":"10.1093/CESIFO/IFZ001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/CESIFO/IFZ001","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We document that switching from laissez-faire production to public procurement in residential waste collection in Finland reduces the number of firms active in the local market, but induces a statistically significant and large decrease in unit prices on average. While public procurement, thus, seems to be desirable from the citizens’ perspective, not all municipalities adopt public procurement. We provide descriptive evidence that municipal council composition is associated with the chosen regime. This suggests that local politics may be one obstacle for the efficient provision of local public goods. (JEL codes: C23, D72, H76, L13, and L85).","PeriodicalId":51748,"journal":{"name":"Cesifo Economic Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2019-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/CESIFO/IFZ001","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44360286","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Macroeconomic fundamentals impact the long-term insolvency problem of a country. This article empirically assesses the role played by both macroeconomic and fiscal fundamentals, proxied by a set of European Commission’s forecasts, in affecting sovereign bond yields. We look at a large panel of 25 European countries between 1992 and 2015. By means panel and time-series approaches, we find that lower short-term interest rates and better fiscal institutions tend to lower bond yields. The better the economic and fiscal outlooks going forward, the lower the yields demanded in international markets. Timing also matters: investors seem to pay more attention to forecasts the shorter the forecast horizon, and they started carrying more weight since the Global Financial Crisis. Finally, the impact of yields’ determinants is different across countries, being more prominent in those characterized by economic hardship conditions (Greece, Ireland, Spain, and Portugal). (JEL codes: C23, E44, H68)
{"title":"How Do Macroeconomic Fundamentals Affect Sovereign Bond Yields? New Evidence from European Forecasts","authors":"J. Jalles","doi":"10.1093/CESIFO/IFY025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/CESIFO/IFY025","url":null,"abstract":"Macroeconomic fundamentals impact the long-term insolvency problem of a country. This article empirically assesses the role played by both macroeconomic and fiscal fundamentals, proxied by a set of European Commission’s forecasts, in affecting sovereign bond yields. We look at a large panel of 25 European countries between 1992 and 2015. By means panel and time-series approaches, we find that lower short-term interest rates and better fiscal institutions tend to lower bond yields. The better the economic and fiscal outlooks going forward, the lower the yields demanded in international markets. Timing also matters: investors seem to pay more attention to forecasts the shorter the forecast horizon, and they started carrying more weight since the Global Financial Crisis. Finally, the impact of yields’ determinants is different across countries, being more prominent in those characterized by economic hardship conditions (Greece, Ireland, Spain, and Portugal). (JEL codes: C23, E44, H68)","PeriodicalId":51748,"journal":{"name":"Cesifo Economic Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2018-12-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/CESIFO/IFY025","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42502716","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
How do politicians with past military service decide on societal issues? We explore the voting behavior of parliamentarians in the informative institutional setting of Switzerland with a conscription army. Our setting allows controlling for voter preferences and party ideology. Results show that politicians who have served in the military do not differ from those who have not served when comparing their voting behavior on issues related to female welfare and welfare of the weak and disabled. However, politicians who have served in the military tend to have a higher probability to accept proposals on neutrality and a lower probability to accept proposals linked to international human rights and the environment. We explore differences with respect to military ranks and ideological positions within parties and find that having chosen to serve in higher military ranks is associated with a differential voting pattern. This suggests that motivation for the military affects voting in parliament.
{"title":"Military Service of Politicians, Public Policy, and Parliamentary Decisions","authors":"D. Stadelmann, Marco Portmann, R. Eichenberger","doi":"10.1093/CESIFO/IFY006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/CESIFO/IFY006","url":null,"abstract":"How do politicians with past military service decide on societal issues? We explore the voting behavior of parliamentarians in the informative institutional setting of Switzerland with a conscription army. Our setting allows controlling for voter preferences and party ideology. Results show that politicians who have served in the military do not differ from those who have not served when comparing their voting behavior on issues related to female welfare and welfare of the weak and disabled. However, politicians who have served in the military tend to have a higher probability to accept proposals on neutrality and a lower probability to accept proposals linked to international human rights and the environment. We explore differences with respect to military ranks and ideological positions within parties and find that having chosen to serve in higher military ranks is associated with a differential voting pattern. This suggests that motivation for the military affects voting in parliament.","PeriodicalId":51748,"journal":{"name":"Cesifo Economic Studies","volume":"64 1","pages":"639-666"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2018-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/CESIFO/IFY006","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42884860","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Much of the research on terrorism has been devoted to analyzing and understanding the concept and consequences of terrorism, as well as the behavior of terrorists. In contrast, this article develops five new and concrete proposals for effective strategies against terrorism: (i) strengthening decentralization; (ii) encouraging fighters to leave the terrorist camp; (iii) reducing the incentives to enter terrorist groups; (iv) negotiating with terrorist groups; and (v) reducing media attention. The advantages and disadvantages of these strategies for curbing terrorism are discussed. They certainly are no panacea to solve terrorist threats. However, they are proposed, as possible ways to overcome the commonly propagated ‘war against terrorism’ proved to be of little effect, or even to be counterproductive.
{"title":"Strategies to Deal with Terrorism","authors":"B. Frey, M. Osterloh","doi":"10.1093/CESIFO/IFX013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/CESIFO/IFX013","url":null,"abstract":"Much of the research on terrorism has been devoted to analyzing and understanding the concept and consequences of terrorism, as well as the behavior of terrorists. In contrast, this article develops five new and concrete proposals for effective strategies against terrorism: (i) strengthening decentralization; (ii) encouraging fighters to leave the terrorist camp; (iii) reducing the incentives to enter terrorist groups; (iv) negotiating with terrorist groups; and (v) reducing media attention. The advantages and disadvantages of these strategies for curbing terrorism are discussed. They certainly are no panacea to solve terrorist threats. However, they are proposed, as possible ways to overcome the commonly propagated ‘war against terrorism’ proved to be of little effect, or even to be counterproductive.","PeriodicalId":51748,"journal":{"name":"Cesifo Economic Studies","volume":"64 1","pages":"698-711"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2018-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/CESIFO/IFX013","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42260355","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
To what extent does United Nations peacekeeping assist in laying the foundations for economic development? We conduct the first exploratory analysis of the effect of peace operations on the economic development of the host countries. We highlight the need for new inferential methods to reveal the extent to which robust conclusions about the success of missions can be drawn. We then apply synthetic control methods to 11 peace operations deployed since the end of the Cold War. Our results suggest that, in seven cases, peacekeeping does not seem to significantly affect economic rehabilitation. In two of the remaining four cases, the impact is negative rather than positive, pointing to persistent hurdles to identification.
{"title":"Economic Development in Peacekeeping Host Countries","authors":"V. Bove, Leandro Elia","doi":"10.1093/CESIFO/IFX009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/CESIFO/IFX009","url":null,"abstract":"To what extent does United Nations peacekeeping assist in laying the foundations for economic development? We conduct the first exploratory analysis of the effect of peace operations on the economic development of the host countries. We highlight the need for new inferential methods to reveal the extent to which robust conclusions about the success of missions can be drawn. We then apply synthetic control methods to 11 peace operations deployed since the end of the Cold War. Our results suggest that, in seven cases, peacekeeping does not seem to significantly affect economic rehabilitation. In two of the remaining four cases, the impact is negative rather than positive, pointing to persistent hurdles to identification.","PeriodicalId":51748,"journal":{"name":"Cesifo Economic Studies","volume":"64 1","pages":"712-728"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2018-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/CESIFO/IFX009","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47671507","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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