Progress in Disaster Science最新文献_第8页

Assessing the long-term effectiveness and socioeconomic benefits associated with ecosystem-based disaster risk reduction measures aimed at mitigating the impact of sediment-related events in Nepal 评估旨在减轻尼泊尔与泥沙有关事件影响的基于生态系统的减少灾害风险措施的长期有效性和社会经济效益

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100464

Hayato Kakinuma , Ching-Ying Tsou , Daisuke Higaki , Reona Kawakami , Chandra Sekar Gautum

The Ecosystem-based Disaster Risk Reduction (Eco-DRR) approach is widely used for slope stabilization and erosion control, yet its long-term effectiveness, structural integrity, and socioeconomic benefits remain insufficiently understood. This study qualitatively assesses countermeasures to geohazards that were implemented at three sites in Nepal as part of the Japan International Cooperation Agency's (JICA's) technical cooperation projects, using locally available materials (rock-filled wire gabions and vegetation). Photo-based comparisons revealed an increase in vegetation cover over 20 to 30 years in previously degraded areas. Gabion check dams stabilized gullies and trapped sediment, but experienced deterioration due to wire corrosion and breakage. A debris flow at Nallu Khola triggered by torrential rainfall on 26–28 September 2024 further exposed the vulnerability of these structures to extreme events, emphasizing the need for more resilient designs. Vegetation-based countermeasures provided livelihood benefits by supplying bamboo for fencing, livestock feed, and household materials. However, economic development has shifted residents toward market-based livelihoods, reducing their reliance on these resources. The sustained activities of the JICA-established user groups highlight the potential for long-term community engagement in land and forest management. While qualitative data offer initial insights, quantitative assessments are needed for precise and standardized evaluations of the countermeasures' effectiveness.

基于生态系统的灾害风险降低（Eco-DRR）方法被广泛用于边坡稳定和侵蚀控制，但其长期有效性、结构完整性和社会经济效益仍未得到充分认识。本研究定性地评估了作为日本国际协力机构（JICA）技术合作项目的一部分，在尼泊尔的三个地点实施的地质灾害对策，使用当地可用的材料（填石铁丝网和植被）。基于照片的比较显示，在过去的退化地区，植被覆盖在20至30年间有所增加。格宾挡土坝稳定了沟壑并截留了沉积物，但由于金属丝腐蚀和断裂而恶化。2024年9月26日至28日的暴雨引发了Nallu Khola的泥石流，进一步暴露了这些结构在极端事件下的脆弱性，强调了对更具弹性设计的需求。以植被为基础的对策通过提供用于围栏、牲畜饲料和家庭材料的竹子来提供生计效益。然而，经济发展使居民转向以市场为基础的生计，减少了他们对这些资源的依赖。jica设立的用户小组的持续活动突出了社区长期参与土地和森林管理的潜力。虽然定性数据提供了初步的见解，但需要定量评估来精确和标准化地评估对策的有效性。

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引用次数: 0

Earthquake loss estimation due to damage to residential masonry buildings during scenario earthquakes in Nepal 尼泊尔模拟地震中住宅砌体建筑损坏的地震损失估算

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100463

Sunita Ghimire, Hari Ram Parajuli, Prem Nath Maskey

Historical records indicate that large-magnitude earthquakes have frequently impacted Nepal, leading to widespread destruction and significant loss of life. This study quantifies potential earthquake losses for residential masonry structures by analyzing damage data from the 2015 Gorkha earthquake across 31 affected districts. The residential buildings in the study area are categorized into seven typologies based on construction materials and the number of stories. Damage states were classified into five grades using the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-98). Based on these classifications, empirical fragility curves were developed. These curves, integrated with exposure, consequence, vulnerability, and fault rupture models, served as the foundation for a loss estimation analysis. We examined three distinct earthquake scenarios– two historical and one hypothetical - that are representative of seismic activity in central, eastern, and western Nepal. Although post-2015 Gorkha earthquake reconstruction efforts resulted in approximately 1,000,000 seismically compliant residential buildings, an estimated 814,690 pre-existing masonry buildings remain highly vulnerable due to their noncompliance with seismic provisions. This study provides municipality-level economic loss estimations, as well as damage distributions for residential masonry buildings, for three scenarios, marking the first time this has been done in the study area.

历史记载表明，尼泊尔频繁发生大地震，造成大范围破坏和重大人员伤亡。本研究通过分析2015年廓尔喀地震31个受灾地区的破坏数据，量化了住宅砌体结构的潜在地震损失。研究区域内的住宅建筑根据建筑材料和层高划分为七种类型。使用欧洲大地震震级（EMS-98）将地震破坏状态分为五个等级。在此基础上，建立了经验脆弱性曲线。这些曲线与暴露、后果、脆弱性和断层破裂模型相结合，成为损失估计分析的基础。我们研究了三种不同的地震情景——两种是历史的，一种是假设的——它们代表了尼泊尔中部、东部和西部的地震活动。尽管2015年后的廓尔喀地震重建工作产生了大约100万栋符合地震要求的住宅建筑，但估计有814,690栋原有的砖石建筑仍然非常脆弱，因为它们不符合地震规定。本研究提供了市政一级的经济损失估计，以及住宅砌体建筑在三种情况下的损害分布，这是第一次在研究区域进行这样的研究。

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引用次数: 0

Adversity and resilience-building in the Canadian entrepreneurial ecosystem: Using disaster, emergency management and social work to understand entrepreneurs' experiences 加拿大创业生态系统中的逆境和韧性建设：用灾难、应急管理和社会工作来理解企业家的经历

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-08-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100461

Lea Tufford , Kyle Breen , Jenna Hepburn , Haorui Wu

Entrepreneurs—especially early entrepreneurs—face numerous challenges throughout their entrepreneurial journey. These challenges and adversities can create distinct personal and professional strains resulting in poor physical, mental, and emotional health. Thus, entrepreneurs must exercise resilience-building to properly prepare for, respond to, and recover from potential adversities. We frame adversities as “environmental shocks” to the entrepreneurial ecosystem using a disaster and emergency management and social work conceptual lens. Entrepreneurs subjected to these shocks then adopt resilience-building strategies as protective factors against future shocks, affording them the ability to bounce back or “bounce forward.” Using semi-structured interviews, we examined the types of adversities and resilience-building strategies employed by 27 Canadian entrepreneurs. Results indicated two forms of adversity and resilience-building—personal and professional— and the interplay within and between them. Personal and professional resilience included seeking therapy and financial preparedness while personal and professional adversity included isolation and problematic co‑leader relationships. Findings from the study call for entrepreneurial-specific social service and training programs which address the manifestations of adversity and offer practical strategies to enhance resilience. This research highlights a unique view of entrepreneurial adversity and resilience and offers a foundation for future research on Canadian entrepreneurial contexts.

企业家——尤其是早期的企业家——在他们的创业之旅中面临着无数的挑战。这些挑战和逆境会造成明显的个人和职业压力，导致身体、精神和情绪健康状况不佳。因此，企业家必须锻炼韧性建设，以适当地准备、应对和从潜在的逆境中恢复过来。我们使用灾难和应急管理以及社会工作概念镜头，将逆境定义为对创业生态系统的“环境冲击”。遭受这些冲击的企业家随后采取弹性建设战略，作为抵御未来冲击的保护因素，使他们有能力反弹或“向前反弹”。采用半结构化访谈，我们考察了27位加拿大企业家所采用的逆境类型和弹性建设策略。结果表明，逆境和弹性建设有两种形式——个人的和职业的——以及它们内部和之间的相互作用。个人和职业适应力包括寻求治疗和财务准备，而个人和职业逆境包括孤立和有问题的共同领导关系。研究结果呼吁针对企业家的社会服务和培训计划，解决逆境的表现，并提供切实可行的策略来增强韧性。本研究突出了创业逆境和弹性的独特视角，为未来对加拿大创业环境的研究奠定了基础。

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引用次数: 0

Integrating multi-criteria decision analysis and geospatial data for flood susceptibility mapping in Texas, USA 基于多准则决策分析和地理空间数据的美国德克萨斯州洪水易感性制图

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-08-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100462

Birhan Getachew Tikuye , Ram Lakhan Ray , Nimal Shantha Abeysingha , Sanjita Gurau

Floods are among the most frequent and destructive natural hazards triggered by snowmelt, intense and prolonged precipitation. This study aimed to delineate flood-prone areas across Texas, USA, by integrating geospatial data with a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was employed within this framework to evaluate systematically and weight key flood conditioning factors. The factor weights in the AHP were established based on insights from expert evaluations, literature, and feedback from relevant public institutions. Flood susceptibility mapping effectiveness was assessed through the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, focusing on the Area under the Curve (AUC) metric. A multi-criteria weighted overlay method was used to combine various geospatial layers. The flood susceptibility map was validated using historical storm event data from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), covering the period from 1985 to the present. The final susceptibility map achieved a high AUC score of 0.90, reflecting a robust agreement between the model's predictions and real-world flood events. The most flood-vulnerable basins include the Sulphur, Cypress, Trinity, Neches-Trinity, Sabine, Guadalupe, and Neches basins, which stand out as the most at-risk areas identified in the analysis. The spatial analysis of the flood susceptibility map revealed that approximately 62 % of the study area falls under high flood risk. Thus, priority should be given to implementing targeted flood management and mitigation strategies in the high-risk river basins.

洪水是由融雪、强降水和长时间降水引发的最频繁和最具破坏性的自然灾害之一。本研究旨在通过将地理空间数据与多标准决策分析（MCDA）方法相结合，划定美国德克萨斯州的洪水易发地区。在此框架下，采用层次分析法（AHP）对洪水调节因子进行系统评价和加权。AHP中的因子权重是根据专家评价、文献和相关公共机构的反馈建立的。通过受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线评估洪水敏感性制图的有效性，重点关注曲线下面积（AUC）指标。采用多准则加权叠加法对不同地理空间层进行组合。利用美国国家环境信息中心（NCEI） 1985年至今的历史风暴事件数据对洪水敏感性图进行了验证。最终的敏感性图获得了0.90的高AUC得分，反映了模型预测与现实世界洪水事件之间的强大一致性。最易受洪水影响的盆地包括Sulphur、Cypress、Trinity、Neches-Trinity、Sabine、Guadalupe和Neches盆地，这些盆地在分析中被认为是风险最大的地区。洪水易感度空间分析表明，研究区约62%的区域处于高洪水风险区。因此，应优先考虑在高风险流域实施有针对性的洪水管理和减灾战略。

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引用次数: 0

Use caution with the word ‘shelter’ in lightning safety 在雷电安全中小心使用“避雷处”这个词

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-08-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100460

Daile Zhang , Mary Ann Cooper , Ronald L. Holle , Mitchell Guthrie

In some countries, lightning causes more deaths than other weather events more commonly thought of as disasters, so there is a need for safe refuges during thunderstorms. Lightning also occurs with volcanoes, hurricanes, tornadoes and other disasters so that disaster refuges in most areas should have lightning protection systems designed consistent with international standards. Of special concern is that the term ‘shelter’ in the U.S. and some other English-speaking countries is associated with many small structures that are nearly always unsafe from lightning. Factors that contribute to lightning risk are listed, as well as the importance of recognizing the mechanisms of lightning injury. Photographic examples are included of structures that are unsafe from lightning in several countries. How to make such structures safe from lightning is described as well as a brief overview of lightning injury prevention.

在一些国家，闪电造成的死亡人数比其他通常被认为是灾难的天气事件还要多，因此在雷暴期间需要安全的避难所。火山、飓风、龙卷风等灾害也会发生闪电，因此大多数地区的灾害避难所都应该有符合国际标准的防雷系统。特别值得关注的是，在美国和其他一些英语国家，“避难所”一词与许多小型建筑物联系在一起，这些建筑物几乎总是不安全的。列出了导致雷击危险的因素，以及认识雷击伤害机制的重要性。其中包括一些国家不安全的建筑物的照片例子。如何使这样的结构安全的雷电是描述以及雷电伤害预防的简要概述。

引用次数: 0

Risk identification and prevention of multi-level flood and typhoon prevention emergency drills 多层次防汛防台应急演练风险识别与防范

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-08-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100458

Feifeng Cao , Changhui Chen , Conglin Zhang , Jianwu Xing

Amid increasing extreme weather events driven by global climate change, pre-emptive emergency drills are vital for strengthening disaster resilience. This paper focuses on risk identification and prevention in multi-level flood and typhoon prevention emergency drills, aiming to achieve effective risk management across administrative levels. Through literature review and expert consultation, 24 risk factors were hierarchically identified. A quantitative risk assessment model was developed by integrating the risk matrix and cloud model eigenvalues. The results show that risks are the most serious at municipal-level drills, with 20 risk factors (79.17 % of the total) at Level-III and above, decreasing at lower administrative levels (where risk level are categorized into Level-I (Major), Level-II (Large), Level-III (General), and Level-IV (Low) based on the risk matrix integrating likelihood and consequence levels, and Level-III and above risks may trigger resource wastage, drill failure, or even personnel casualties). Temporally, 39 risk factors at Level-III and above were concentrated in preparation stages across all administrative levels, declining to 3 such risk factors during rectification stage. Spatially, the number of risk factors peaked during the municipal-level and county-level preparation stages (11 risk factors respectively at Level-III and above), with their quantity gradually decreasing as the administrative level decreases and drill stages advance. Based on these findings, a systematic risk prevention matrix is proposed to offer targeted guidance for multi-level flood and typhoon prevention emergency drills in addressing climate change-induced disaster challenges.

在全球气候变化导致的极端天气事件日益增多的情况下，先发制人的应急演习对于增强抗灾能力至关重要。本文重点研究了多层次防汛防台应急演练中的风险识别与防范问题，旨在实现跨行政层面的有效风险管理。通过文献回顾和专家咨询，对24个危险因素进行了分级识别。将风险矩阵与云模型特征值相结合，建立了定量的风险评估模型。结果表明，市级以上演习风险最严重，三级及以上有20个风险因素（占总风险因素的79.17%），较低的行政级别（根据可能性和后果等级的风险矩阵，风险等级分为一级（重大）、二级（大）、三级（一般）和四级（低），三级及以上的风险可能导致资源浪费、演习失败甚至人员伤亡）风险降低。从时间上看，各级行政区划三级及以上危险因素在准备阶段集中在39个，在整改阶段集中在3个。从空间上看，风险因子数量在市级和县级准备阶段达到峰值（3级及以上风险因子分别为11个），随着行政级别的降低和演练阶段的推进，风险因子数量逐渐减少。在此基础上，提出了系统的风险防范矩阵，为应对气候变化引发的灾害挑战的多层次防汛防台应急演练提供有针对性的指导。

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引用次数: 0

Internally displaced in Tigray (Northern Ethiopia): Management and sustainability of shelter and settlement 提格雷境内流离失所者（埃塞俄比亚北部）：住房和定居点的管理和可持续性

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-08-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100459

Samuel Bekele , Domenico Patassini , Jacopo Galli

Following the two-year war (2020−2022) in Tigray, Northern Ethiopia, more than two million people were internally displaced. A large number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) suffered precarious shelter and settlement conditions, resulting in unsafe, undignified, and substandard living environments. Construction of emergency shelter within a short timeframe, limited availability of humanitarian partners, logistical constraints, and scarce resources were among the major challenges. These issues were further exacerbated by the lack of a comprehensive assessment of shelter typologies, as well as traditional construction methods and settlement patterns. The aim of this study is to assess shelter typologies and construction systems, as well as to examine settlement characteristics, delivery, and management approaches. Particular emphasis is placed on innovative shelter solutions and sustainability. A multi-site case study, combined with within- and cross-case analysis, enabled the collection of both qualitative and quantitative data across multiple locations. Data were gathered through interviews, questionnaires, focus group discussions, on-site observations, and visual documentation, supported by a comprehensive literature review. The study identified sixteen distinct shelter typologies, each varying in design, construction methods, building materials, and longevity across four primary settlement morphologies.Settlements were created through IDPs self construction or direct by humanitarian partners.

在埃塞俄比亚北部提格雷的两年战争（2020 - 2022年）之后，200多万人在国内流离失所。大量国内流离失所者的住所和定居条件岌岌可危，导致不安全、没有尊严和不合标准的生活环境。在短时间内建造紧急住所、人道主义合作伙伴有限、后勤限制和资源匮乏是主要挑战。由于缺乏对住房类型以及传统建筑方法和住区模式的全面评估，这些问题进一步加剧。这项研究的目的是评估住房类型和建筑系统，以及检查住区特征、交付和管理方法。特别强调创新的住房解决方案和可持续性。一个多地点的案例研究，结合内部和跨案例分析，可以在多个地点收集定性和定量数据。通过访谈、问卷调查、焦点小组讨论、现场观察和可视化文档收集数据，并辅以全面的文献综述。该研究确定了16种不同的庇护所类型，每种类型在设计、建造方法、建筑材料和四种主要住区形态的寿命方面都有所不同。定居点是通过国内流离失所者自建或由人道主义伙伴直接建立的。

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引用次数: 0

Resilient resettlement model: Progress and new insights into humanitarian-development Nexus 弹性安置模式：人道主义发展关系的进展和新见解

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-08-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100456

Norazam Ab Samah , Khamarrul Azahari Razak , Abdullah Mahmud , Dzulkarnaen Ismail , Muhammad Fauzie Ismail , Liyana Hayatun Syamila Ramlee , Bondan Galih Dewanto

An integrated post-disaster recovery (PDR) strategy is pivotal to enhance societal resilience and accelerate our commitment to the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. This study presents the Resilient Resettlement Model (RRM), a novel framework designed to co-implement resilient resettlement solutions in complex disaster contexts. This study aims: i) to identify design considerations derived from empirical observations of past resettlement projects, emphasizing principles: ‘Build Back Better,’ ‘Bounce Back Faster,’ and ‘Strengthen Risk Reduction’; ii) to develop a theoretical framework for resilient resettlement design in post-disaster scenarios; and iii) to establish the RRM to support the Humanitarian-Development Nexus (HDN). Based on the systematic literature reviews, field observations, surveys, evidence-based case studies, and expert validation, this study adopts a two-phase sequential mixed-method design approach based on three significant disasters in the Southeast Asia region. The MERCY Malaysia's involvement in the 2004 Indian Ocean Earthquake and Tsunami in Aceh, Indonesia, the 2014 Kelantan flood in Malaysia, and the 2018 Palu Earthquake and Tsunami in Indonesia were explored to uncover new insights into resettlement implementation model and best practices. The study highlights the critical role of planning and design considerations in successful resettlement efforts. Integrating two decades of international humanitarian experience, this research offers prospective views to the disaster recovery preparedness strategies and recommendations that incorporate physical, environmental, social, economic, and institutional components of design considerations towards achieving resilient post-disaster resettlements.

综合灾后恢复战略对于增强社会复原力和加快我们对《2015-2030年仙台减少灾害风险框架》的承诺至关重要。本研究提出了弹性安置模型（RRM），这是一个旨在在复杂灾害背景下共同实施弹性安置解决方案的新框架。本研究的目的是：i)从以往移民安置项目的经验观察中找出设计考虑因素，强调“更好地重建”、“更快地反弹”和“加强降低风险”的原则；Ii)为灾后情景下的弹性安置设计制定理论框架；iii)建立RRM以支持人道主义与发展联系（HDN）。本研究在系统文献综述、实地观察、调查、循证案例研究和专家验证的基础上，采用基于东南亚地区三次重大灾害的两阶段序贯混合方法设计方法。探讨了2004年印度尼西亚亚齐印度洋地震和海啸、2014年马来西亚吉兰丹洪水以及2018年印度尼西亚帕卢地震和海啸中MERCY参与的安置实施模式和最佳实践的新见解。这项研究强调了规划和设计因素在成功安置工作中的关键作用。本研究综合了二十年的国际人道主义经验，为灾后重建准备战略和建议提供了前瞻性的观点，这些战略和建议将物理、环境、社会、经济和制度因素纳入设计考虑，以实现有弹性的灾后重建。

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引用次数: 0

Urban morphology and disaster risk reduction: A systematic literature review 城市形态与减少灾害风险：系统文献综述

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-07-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100455

Qinglong An, Chiho Ochiai

Frequent climate change increasingly exposes cities to multi-disaster risks, directly threatening human safety and well-being. Urban morphology shares theoretical content and spatiotemporal characteristics with Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). Exploring the relationship between urban form and disaster risk is particularly important to guide urban design and policymaking. To understand how urban form contributes to DRR, this study employed bibliometric and content analyses to review relevant literature based on a theoretical study rooted in urban morphology and DRR. Specifically, this review examined existing research trends, and the methods, data, and key elements of urban form utilized at different scales. The result reveals the progress in urban morphology and DRR research, which is driven by global frameworks such as the Yokohama Strategy, Hyogo Framework for Action, and Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. Key gaps include spatiotemporal complexities, precise disaster risk data, and sociocultural factors. Quantitative methods dominate current research, but the integration of qualitative methods including transect walks, stakeholder interviews and cultural mapping provides complementary insights into the socio-cultural dimensions behind urban form, and implicit disaster response mechanisms in urban resilience. Future research should broaden cross-regional studies, incorporate multi-hazard perspectives, and integrate disaster cycles to develop more comprehensive and globally applicable policies.

频繁的气候变化日益使城市面临多重灾害风险，直接威胁到人类的安全和福祉。城市形态与灾害风险降低具有共同的理论内容和时空特征。探索城市形态与灾害风险之间的关系对于指导城市设计和政策制定尤为重要。为了解城市形态对DRR的影响，本研究在基于城市形态和DRR的理论研究基础上，采用文献计量学和内容分析法对相关文献进行了梳理。具体而言，本文回顾了现有的研究趋势，以及在不同尺度上使用的城市形态的方法、数据和关键要素。结果揭示了城市形态和减灾研究的进展，这是由横滨战略、兵库行动框架和仙台减少灾害风险框架等全球框架推动的。主要差距包括时空复杂性、精确的灾害风险数据和社会文化因素。定量方法在目前的研究中占主导地位，但包括样带步行、利益相关者访谈和文化测绘在内的定性方法的整合，为城市形态背后的社会文化维度以及城市弹性中隐含的灾害响应机制提供了补充见解。未来的研究应扩大跨区域研究，纳入多灾害视角，整合灾害周期，以制定更全面和全球适用的政策。

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引用次数: 0

Human dimensions in flood risk management: Exploring risk perception and climate change considerations among engineers in the US 洪水风险管理中的人类维度：探索美国工程师的风险感知和气候变化考虑

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2025-07-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100453

Mohammad Pourmatin , Elham Ajorlou , Ali Farhadzadeh , Majid Ghayoomi , Elizabeth Hewitt

Due to an increase in natural hazards, the cost of physical damage to local infrastructure has grown significantly. However, many vulnerabilities faced by the built environment involve human factors, which remain understudied. This study examines factors that influence how hydraulic and coastal engineers involved in U.S. flood infrastructure design perceive risk and integrate environmental and social considerations into their professional recommendations. A survey was conducted of U.S.-based civil engineers specializing in flood infrastructure design to assess factors influencing their design-related judgments. Using various statistical analyses, this study identifies key predictors shaping engineers' engagement with risk and climate. Results show that engineers with liberal political orientations are more likely to incorporate climate change impacts into designs, and household income is negatively associated with risk-aversion attitudes. Engineers with limited work experience report more influence from peers, and dissatisfaction with engineering education is a strong predictor of reliance on personal attitudes when facing uncertainty. While engineers are not the final decision-makers, these findings highlight their crucial role as intermediaries who shape how risk is framed and which options are presented to agencies and clients. These findings offer novel contributions merging social science with engineering and inform how decision-makers can enhance flood risk management.

由于自然灾害的增加，对当地基础设施造成的物理破坏的成本大大增加。然而，建筑环境面临的许多脆弱性涉及人为因素，这些因素仍未得到充分研究。本研究考察了影响美国洪水基础设施设计的水利和海岸工程师如何感知风险，并将环境和社会因素纳入其专业建议的因素。对美国专门从事防洪基础设施设计的土木工程师进行了一项调查，以评估影响他们设计相关判断的因素。通过各种统计分析，本研究确定了影响工程师参与风险和气候的关键预测因素。结果表明，具有自由政治倾向的工程师更有可能将气候变化影响纳入设计中，家庭收入与风险厌恶态度呈负相关。工作经验有限的工程师受到同行的影响更大，对工程教育的不满是面对不确定性时依赖个人态度的一个强有力的预测因素。虽然工程师不是最终的决策者，但这些发现突显了他们作为中间人的关键作用，他们决定了风险的构成方式，以及向机构和客户提供哪些选择。这些发现提供了将社会科学与工程相结合的新贡献，并告知决策者如何加强洪水风险管理。

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引用次数: 0