Geography and Sustainability最新文献_第8页

The modeling framework of the coupled human and natural systems in the Yellow River Basin 黄河流域人与自然耦合系统建模框架

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100294

Shan Sang , Yan Li , Shuang Zong , Lu Yu , Shuai Wang , Yanxu Liu , Xutong Wu , Shuang Song , Xuhui Wang , Bojie Fu

A mechanistic understanding and modeling of the coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) are frontier of geographical sciences and essential for promoting regional sustainability. Modeling regional CHANS in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) featuring high water stress, intense human interference, and a fragile ecosystem has always been a complex challenge. Here, we propose a conceptual modeling framework to capture key human-natural components and their interactions, focusing on human-water dynamics. The modeling framework encompasses five human (Population, Economy, Energy, Food, and Water Demand) and five natural sectors (Water Supply, Sediment, Land, Carbon, and Climate) that can be either fully interactive or standalone. The modeling framework, implemented using the system dynamics (SD) approach, can well reproduce the basin's historical evolution in human-natural processes and predict future dynamics under various scenarios. The flexibility, adaptability, and potential for integration with diverse methods position the framework as an instructive tool for guiding regional CHANS modeling. Our insights highlight pathways to advance regional CHANS modeling and its application to address regional sustainability challenges.

对人与自然耦合系统（CHANS）的机制理解和建模是地理科学的前沿，对促进区域可持续发展至关重要。黄河流域水资源压力大、人为干扰强、生态系统脆弱，区域CHANS建模一直是一项复杂的挑战。在此，我们提出了一个概念性建模框架，以捕获关键的人-自然成分及其相互作用，重点关注人-水动力学。建模框架包括五个人类部门（人口、经济、能源、食品和水需求）和五个自然部门（水供应、沉积物、土地、碳和气候），它们可以完全互动，也可以独立。利用系统动力学（SD）方法实现的建模框架可以很好地再现流域在人-自然过程中的历史演变，并预测不同情景下的未来动态。该框架的灵活性、适应性和与多种方法集成的潜力使其成为指导区域CHANS建模的指导性工具。我们的见解强调了推进区域CHANS建模及其应用以应对区域可持续性挑战的途径。

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引用次数: 0

Non-negligible large impact of potential forestation on livestock production in China 中国潜在的造林对畜牧业生产的巨大影响不容忽视

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100270

Changjiang Wu , Xiaoping Liu , Fengsong Pei , Kangyao Liu , Yaotong Cai , Xiaocong Xu , Haoming Zhuang , Yiling Cai , Bingjie Li

Forestation projects have been identified as an important component of climate mitigation strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions worldwide. However, most previous studies ignore the impacts of potential forestation projects on livestock production, which is crucial to the livelihoods of local people. In this study, we identified potential forestation areas in China by integrating random forest regression model and LPJ-GUESS model. The impacts of potential forestation on carbon storage and pasture-based livestock production were then analyzed. The results showed that China has a potential forestation area of 43.2 million hectares, accounting for about 19.6 % of the country’s forest area as reported in the 9th National Forest Inventory. If all these regions are reforested, China’s forest cover will increase to 27.4 %. Furthermore, 1.58 Pg C of new above- and below-ground carbon would be sequestered, about an increase of 17.2 % of current forest carbon storage. However, the potential forestation may result in a significant negative impact on existing pastures and the amount of livestock. It can reduce 4.7 % of beef, and 0.8 % of mutton products from China’s livestock sector each year. These significant declines will result in a huge gap in China’s livestock products supply, posing a serious threat to food security and the livelihoods of many people. Our findings highlight that potential forestation projects should further consider a reasonable pasture protection strategy to balance the potential carbon sequestration and the socio-economic benefits of livestock production.

造林项目已被确定为减少全球温室气体排放的气候缓解战略的一个重要组成部分。然而，大多数先前的研究忽略了潜在的造林项目对牲畜生产的影响，而牲畜生产对当地人民的生计至关重要。本研究采用随机森林回归模型和LPJ-GUESS模型相结合的方法，确定了中国的潜在造林面积。分析了潜在造林对碳储量和牧畜生产的影响。结果表明，中国的潜在造林面积为4320万公顷，约占第九次全国森林清查中报告的全国森林面积的19.6%。如果所有这些地区都重新造林，中国的森林覆盖率将增加到27.4%。此外，新增地上和地下碳的1.58 Pg C将被封存，约增加目前森林碳储量的17.2%。然而，潜在的造林可能会对现有的牧场和牲畜数量产生重大的负面影响。它每年可以减少中国畜牧业4.7%的牛肉和0.8%的羊肉产品。如此大幅度的下降将导致中国畜产品供应出现巨大缺口，对许多人的粮食安全和生计构成严重威胁。我们的研究结果表明，潜在的造林项目应进一步考虑合理的牧场保护策略，以平衡潜在的碳封存和畜牧业生产的社会经济效益。

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引用次数: 0

Optimizing cropland expansion for minimizing ecosystem service loss in China 中国优化耕地扩展以减少生态系统服务损失

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100299

Siyan Zeng , Junna Liu , Jing Ma , Yongjun Yang , Gang-Jun Liu , Fu Chen

Global population growth and rising standards of living are the driving factors for the cropland expansion to meet increasing demands. However, there is no clear assessment of the specific losses on ecosystem services caused by China’s expansion of cropland to ensure food security at the cost of losing ecological land such as forests and grasslands. This study employed the ArcGIS platform and integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs (InVEST) model to explore the cropland expansion in China from 2000 to 2020 and its impact on ecosystem services, so as to predict the priority areas of future cropland expansion in different scenarios. The results indicated that in the past 20 years, the total area of cropland expansion in China was 17.04 million hm² with 70.79 % conversion from forests and grasslands. Cropland expansion has contributed to an overall improvement in the food supply services with the Northern Arid and Semi-Arid Region exhibiting an increase of 18.76 × 10⁶ tons, while concurrently leading to a decline in habitat quality services. The priority areas for future cropland expansion without ecological loss were found to be 1.42 million hm², which only account for 9.44 % of the total reclaimable land. To minimize the loss of ecosystem services, there is a need to adjust the cropland replenishment policies and provide an operational solution for global food security and ecological protection.

全球人口增长和生活水平的提高是农田扩张以满足日益增长的需求的驱动因素。然而，对于中国为保障粮食安全而以森林、草原等生态用地的损失为代价而扩大耕地所造成的生态系统服务的具体损失，目前尚无明确的评估。本研究利用ArcGIS平台和生态系统服务与权衡综合评价（InVEST）模型，对2000 - 2020年中国耕地扩展及其对生态系统服务的影响进行了研究，从而预测了不同情景下中国未来耕地扩展的优先区域。结果表明：近20年来，中国新增耕地面积为1704万hm2，森林和草地转化率为70.79%；耕地的扩大促进了粮食供应服务的全面改善，北部干旱和半干旱地区的粮食供应增加了18.76 × 106吨，同时导致生境质量服务的下降。无生态损失的未来耕地优先扩展面积为142万hm²，仅占可开垦土地总面积的9.44%。为了最大限度地减少生态系统服务的损失，有必要调整耕地补充政策，为全球粮食安全和生态保护提供可操作的解决方案。

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引用次数: 0

Climate aridification and intensified human interference undermined water storage in the Lower Yellow River region 气候干旱化和人为干扰加剧使黄河下游地区的蓄水量减少

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100303

Xilin Wu , Xiaoming Feng , Bojie Fu

Understanding the relationships between human activities and hydrological processes is critical for sustainable water resources management, especially under the threat of increasing climate extremes. China’s Lower Yellow River (LYR) region is one of the world’s most water-scarce and human-impacted areas, yet comprehensive information on its water resources is lacking. This study adopted a water resources system (WRS) analytical framework to investigate the water crisis facing the region. The findings reveal that over the last decade, the system’s resilience has been undermined by the combined impacts of climate aridification and intensified human interference. Specifically, a delicate balance between natural groundwater depletion and irrigation replenishment has been disrupted by a series of drought events since 2012. Increased groundwater extraction during droughts, coupled with an imbalanced allocation of surface water resources, has led to a persistent decline in water storage that has continued even after the droughts have ended. To mitigate future climate risks in the LYR, we recommend implementing more adaptive strategies, such as flexible water regulation policies and combined surface-groundwater management. Lessons from the LYR have important implications for other regions facing water resource challenges.

了解人类活动与水文过程之间的关系对于可持续水资源管理至关重要，特别是在极端气候日益增加的威胁下。中国黄河下游地区（LYR）是世界上最缺水和受人类影响最严重的地区之一，但有关其水资源的全面信息缺乏。本研究采用水资源系统（WRS）分析框架对该地区面临的水危机进行研究。研究结果表明，在过去十年中，气候干旱化和人类干预加剧的综合影响削弱了该系统的复原力。具体来说，自2012年以来，一系列干旱事件破坏了天然地下水枯竭和灌溉补充之间的微妙平衡。干旱期间地下水开采增加，加上地表水资源分配不平衡，导致储水量持续下降，甚至在干旱结束后仍在继续。为了减轻未来LYR地区的气候风险，我们建议实施更具适应性的战略，如灵活的水调节政策和地表水-地下水联合管理。从水资源评估中吸取的经验教训对面临水资源挑战的其他地区具有重要意义。

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引用次数: 0

Immediate remote sensing of sudden earth’s surface anomalies and its geographical significance 地表突发性异常的即时遥感及其地理意义

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100305

Qiao Wang, Haishuo Wei

Sudden earth’s surface anomalies caused by natural and anthropogenic factors pose significant threats to ecological sustainability and the safety of human life and property, highlighting the urgent need for their immediate monitoring and early warning. Satellite remote sensing is the most effective means for large-scale earth’s surface anomaly detection. However, constrained by traditional observation paradigms, satellite payload limitations, and other physical factors, current remote sensing detection faces two major challenges: “inability to observe quickly” and “inability to observe effectively”. To solve these problems, we have researched immediate remote sensing detection of sudden earth’s surface anomalies. Its core concept is to deploy the entire detection process on satellites, enabling on-orbit immediate detection of earth’s surface anomalies based on a single image through the integrated “positioning, navigation, timing, remote sensing, communication (PNTRC)” intelligent constellation and edge computing technologies. Subsequently, the detection results are transmitted directly to the subscriber mobile terminal through the BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS). The immediate remote sensing of sudden earth’s surface anomalies emphasizes the continuous capture and immediate feedback of geographic processes, overcoming the longstanding reliance of traditional geography on “slow variables”. Its significance lies not only in the improvement of data acquisition efficiency but also in promoting the transformation of geography from a “descriptive science” to a “predictive science”.

由自然和人为因素引起的地表突发性异常对生态可持续性和人类生命财产安全构成重大威胁，迫切需要对其进行及时监测和预警。卫星遥感是大规模地表异常探测最有效的手段。然而，受传统观测模式、卫星有效载荷限制等物理因素的制约，当前遥感探测面临“无法快速观测”和“无法有效观测”两大挑战。为了解决这些问题，我们对地表突发性异常的即时遥感探测进行了研究。其核心理念是将整个探测过程部署在卫星上，通过综合“定位、导航、授时、遥感、通信（PNTRC）”智能星座和边缘计算技术，实现基于单幅图像的地球表面异常在轨即时探测。随后，检测结果通过北斗卫星导航系统（BDS）直接传输到用户移动终端。地表突发性异常的即时遥感强调对地理过程的连续捕捉和即时反馈，克服了传统地理学对“慢变量”的长期依赖。其意义不仅在于数据采集效率的提高，还在于促进地理学从“描述性科学”向“预测性科学”的转变。

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引用次数: 0

Exploring regional variations in agricultural greenhouse gas emissions: Insights from Bangladesh’s districts 探讨农业温室气体排放的地区差异：来自孟加拉国各区的见解

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100298

Shaikh Shamim Hasan , Zhihui Li , Fan Zhang

Agriculture is part of the food production that feeds the expanding population though it produces considerable greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It’s crucial to balancing food security and emission reduction for a win-win scenario. However, the lack of sufficient comprehensive district-level assessments makes it difficult to determine the specific mitigation potential for agriculture emissions. In this study, we deployed the IPCC Tier 1 approach and estimated GHG at district/division level in Bangladesh from the year 2010 to 2021. We computed three primary GHG (CO₂, N₂O, and CH₄) from five sources of agriculture, namely, rice-growing CH₄, other crops-growing N₂O, enteric fermentation, urea fertilizer-induced N₂O, and energy-related CO₂ emissions in the 64 districts, and aggregated them into eight divisions. We observed from this study that GHG emissions in Bangladesh gradually increased from 2010 to 2021 and reached the peak (34.3 MtCO₂e) in 2021. Rangpur division emitted the highest amount of GHG (6.03 MtCO₂e in 2021) during this period. We also observed significant variations in the sources and structure of emissions within each division. Moreover, regional differences were observed in overall emissions and per capita emissions after additional spatial analysis, with per capita GHG emissions declining from 2010 (1.97 tCO₂e) to 2021 (1.90 tCO₂e). Findings of this regional (district/division) estimation will help stakeholders of the country to develop suitable mitigation approaches which targets particular emission sources and geographic areas.

农业是养活不断增长的人口的粮食生产的一部分，尽管它产生了大量的温室气体（GHG）排放。平衡粮食安全和减排对实现双赢至关重要。然而，由于缺乏充分全面的地区一级评估，因此难以确定农业排放的具体缓解潜力。在本研究中，我们部署了IPCC第一级方法，并在2010年至2021年期间估算了孟加拉国地区/部门层面的温室气体。我们计算了64个地区5个农业来源的3种主要温室气体（CO2、N2O和CH4），即水稻种植的CH4、其他作物种植的N2O、肠道发酵、尿素肥料诱导的N2O和能源相关的CO2排放，并将其汇总为8个分区。从本研究中我们观察到，孟加拉国的温室气体排放量从2010年到2021年逐渐增加，并在2021年达到峰值（3430 MtCO2e）。在此期间，Rangpur地区的温室气体排放量最高（2021年为603 MtCO2e）。我们还观察到，在每个分区内，排放源和结构都有显著差异。总体排放量和人均排放量存在区域差异，人均温室气体排放量从2010年（1.97 tCO2e）下降到2021年（1.90 tCO2e）。这一区域（地区/司）估计的结果将有助于该国利益攸关方制定针对特定排放源和地理区域的适当缓解办法。

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引用次数: 0

Exploring the dynamic impact of future land use changes on urban flood disasters: A case study in Zhengzhou City, China 探讨未来土地利用变化对城市洪涝灾害的动态影响——以郑州市为例

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100287

Yuanyuan Bai , Shao Sun , Yingjun Xu , Yi Zhao , Yujie Pan , Yao Xiao , Ruoxin Li

In recent years, urban floods have increased in frequency and severity due to intensified extreme rainfall events exacerbated by rapid urbanization. This study integrates a Markov-PLUS model and a rainfall-runoff-flood hydraulic numerical model to establish a scenario-based research framework for identifying interactions between land use dynamics and urban flood risk, using the Jialu River basin in Zhengzhou, China, as a case study. Future land use changes under three scenarios were forecast: Natural Development (ND), Economic Development (ED), and Ecological Protection (EP), alongside rainfall scenarios occurring every 10, 50, and 100 years. There were expansions and decreases in construction land under the ED and EP scenarios, respectively, emphasizing the importance of prioritizing ecological conservation. Economic scenarios showed the highest risks under the increased surface runoff and flood risk driven by higher rainstorm intensity. Over the next 15 years, the Economic Development scenario is projected to increase flood hazard areas, whereas the intensified Ecological Protection scenario is expected to reduce these risks. This underscores the contribution of prioritizing ecological conservation to mitigating disaster risks, calling for enhanced drainage systems and elevated flood protection standards to promote resilient urban development in the face of increasingly severe urban flood challenges.

近年来，由于快速城市化加剧了极端降雨事件的加剧，城市洪水的频率和严重程度都有所增加。本研究以郑州市嘉鲁河流域为例，结合Markov-PLUS模型和降雨-径流-洪水数值模型，建立基于场景的土地利用动态与城市洪水风险相互作用研究框架。在自然发展（ND）、经济发展（ED）和生态保护（EP）三种情景下，以及每10年、50年和100年发生一次的降雨情景下，预测了未来土地利用的变化。在ED和EP情景下，建设用地分别呈现扩张和减少的趋势，强调了优先考虑生态保护的重要性。经济情景下，地表径流量增加和暴雨强度增大导致的洪水风险最大。在未来15年，经济发展情景预计将增加洪水灾害面积，而加强生态保护情景预计将减少这些风险。这凸显了优先考虑生态保护对减轻灾害风险的贡献，呼吁加强排水系统和提高防洪标准，以促进有弹性的城市发展，以应对日益严峻的城市洪水挑战。

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引用次数: 0

Temperature drives the variations in cropland exposure to compound drought and heatwave events under future climate in Northeast China 温度驱动未来气候条件下东北地区干旱和热浪复合事件下农田暴露度的变化

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100292

Chuanwei Zhang , Jiangbo Gao , Lulu Liu , Yanjun Shen , Shaohong Wu

Exposure assessment is critical for hazard risk management. It is important to investigate the cropland exposure to compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events because of their severe impacts on agriculture. We quantified the variations in CDHW characteristics (i.e., frequency, duration, and magnitude) and the cropland exposure to CDHW events in Northeast China using 20 CMIP6 climate projections for each of the four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (i.e., SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585). The results indicate that the intensification of CDHW events leading to an anticipated increase in cropland exposure ranges from 1.6-fold to 5.8-fold (the range describes the differences among SSPs), with the west and northeast of the region poised to experience more pronounced increases. Notably, adherence to the SSP126 pathway can reduce both the increase rate of CDHW magnitude and cropland exposure compared to other SSPs. Path analysis demonstrates that cropland exposure is primarily driven by maximum temperature (Tmax). Although precipitation (Pre) increases (0.36–0.75 mm year^-1), the rise in potential evapotranspiration (PET) due to global warming is higher than that of Pre (0.26–1.07 mm year^-1) except for SSP126, resulting in more drought events. Futhermore, elevated Tmax increases the frequency of extreme temperature events. Therefore, increases in Tmax and agricultural land area collectively contribute to exposure rise, with Tmax being the dominant factor in this process. Our findings emphasize the pivotal role of regulating the development pathway into SSP126 for sustainable agriculture, and optimizing crop patterns and planting heat-tolerant crop varieties are recommended for CDHW adaption.

暴露评估对危害风险管理至关重要。干旱和热浪复合事件对农业生产的影响很大，因此研究干旱和热浪复合事件对农业生产的影响具有重要意义。我们利用CMIP6对4条共享社会经济路径（即SSP126、SSP245、SSP370和SSP585）的20个气候预测，量化了中国东北地区CDHW特征（即频率、持续时间和强度）和耕地暴露度的变化。结果表明，CDHW事件的加剧导致耕地暴露量预计增加1.6 ~ 5.8倍（该范围描述了ssp之间的差异），该地区西部和东北部将经历更明显的增加。值得注意的是，与其他ssp相比，坚持SSP126途径可以降低CDHW强度的增加速度和农田暴露。通径分析表明，耕地暴露主要受最高温度（Tmax）驱动。虽然降水（Pre）增加（0.36 ~ 0.75 mm -1），但由于全球变暖导致潜在蒸散（PET）的增加（0.26 ~ 1.07 mm -1）高于Pre （SSP126除外），导致干旱事件增多。此外，Tmax的升高增加了极端温度事件的发生频率。因此，Tmax和农用地面积的增加共同促进了暴露量的增加，其中Tmax是这一过程中的主导因素。我们的研究结果强调了调节SSP126的发育途径对可持续农业的关键作用，并建议优化作物模式和种植耐热作物品种来适应CDHW。

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引用次数: 0

The nexus between poverty reduction and carbon emissions: Insights from Hubei, China during the Targeted Poverty Alleviation Period 减贫与碳排放的关系：精准扶贫时期湖北的启示

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100308

Mengxiao Liu , Yong Ge

Wiping out poverty while controlling carbon emissions is a major challenge of our time. China eradicated extreme poverty in 2020 through the targeted poverty alleviation (TPA) strategy, providing a unique case to examine the poverty-carbon nexus at the subnational level. This paper investigates the nexus between county-level poverty reduction and carbon emissions in Hubei province during the TPA period. Our findings support the win-win hypothesis, indicating that poverty reduction and emissions control can be achieved simultaneously. CO₂ sequestration through vegetation emerged as a key factor benefiting both objectives, with a 1 % increase reducing poverty by 0.42 % and lowering carbon emissions by 0.19 %. Economic growth contributed to poverty alleviation but increased emissions: a 1 % rise in GDP reduced poverty by 0.44 % while raising emissions by 0.70 %. Conversely, a 1 % increase in electricity consumption raised poverty by 0.46 % and lowered emissions by 0.12 %. Agricultural development showed a 1 % increase correlated with 0.52 % higher poverty and 0.17 % higher emissions. “Carbon Sink+” trading mechanisms facilitated ecological poverty alleviation in impoverished areas. Panel causality analysis confirms a bidirectional relationship between poverty reduction and carbon emissions. These findings highlight the potential for integrated strategies that advance both poverty alleviation and emissions reduction while considering the complex socioeconomic dynamics necessary to achieve sustainable development goals.

在控制碳排放的同时消除贫困是我们这个时代的一项重大挑战。中国通过精准扶贫（TPA）战略在2020年消除了极端贫困，为研究地方层面的贫困-碳关系提供了一个独特的案例。本文研究了TPA时期湖北省县域扶贫与碳排放的关系。我们的研究结果支持双赢假说，表明减少贫困和控制排放可以同时实现。通过植被进行的CO₂固存是有利于这两个目标的关键因素，增加1%可以减少0.42%的贫困，降低0.19%的碳排放。经济增长有助于减轻贫困，但增加了排放：GDP每增长1%，贫困人口减少0.44%，而排放量增加0.70%。相反，用电量每增加1%，贫困人口就会增加0.46%，排放量则会减少0.12%。农业发展增长1%，贫困增加0.52%，排放增加0.17%。“碳汇+”交易机制助力贫困地区生态扶贫。面板因果分析证实了减贫与碳排放之间的双向关系。这些发现突出表明，在考虑实现可持续发展目标所必需的复杂社会经济动态的同时，有可能制定既促进减贫又促进减排的综合战略。

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引用次数: 0

A 36-year geospatial analysis of urbanization dynamics and surface urban heat island effect: Case study of the Bangkok Metropolitan Region 36年城市化动态与地表城市热岛效应的地理空间分析——以曼谷都市圈为例

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100322

Nattapong Puttanapong , Nithima Nuengjumnong , JoJinda SaeJung , Sitthisak Moukomla

This study examines the impact of urbanization on the Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) effect in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR) over a 36-year period, utilizing advanced machine learning techniques to assess changes in land use and land cover (LULC). The research addresses three key questions: (1) How have changes in LULC influenced the dynamics of the urban heat island (UHI) effect in the BMR? (2) What roles do green and blue infrastructure play in mitigating urban heat? (3) How effectively can machine learning models classify LULC changes and provide insights to support sustainable urban planning? The findings reveal a strong correlation between urban growth and increased land surface temperatures (LST), with parks and water bodies exhibiting lower LSTs, emphasizing the importance of green and blue infrastructure in mitigating urban heat. The SUHI effect, initially measured at 3 °C from 1988 to 1991, peaked at 4.8 °C between 2012 and 2019 before slightly declining to 4.1 °C in recent years due to urban greening initiatives. However, ongoing urban development continues to diminish green spaces and water bodies, underscoring the urgent need for sustainable urban planning. Economic factors, including the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis and land tax laws introduced in 2019, influenced land use patterns, further exacerbating the SUHI effect. The research highlights the necessity of integrated urban management and sustainable land use policies to enhance climate resilience in rapidly urbanizing regions like the BMR.

本研究利用先进的机器学习技术来评估土地利用和土地覆盖（LULC）的变化，研究了36年来城市化对曼谷都会区（BMR）地表城市热岛（SUHI）效应的影响。本文主要研究了三个关键问题：(1)城市热岛变化对城市热岛效应的影响机制；(2)绿色和蓝色基础设施在缓解城市热量方面发挥了什么作用？(3)机器学习模型如何有效地分类LULC变化并提供见解以支持可持续城市规划？研究结果表明，城市增长与地表温度升高之间存在很强的相关性，公园和水体地表温度较低，强调了绿色和蓝色基础设施在缓解城市热量方面的重要性。SUHI效应最初在1988年至1991年期间测量为3°C，在2012年至2019年期间达到4.8°C的峰值，然后由于城市绿化举措，近年来略有下降至4.1°C。然而，持续的城市发展不断减少绿色空间和水体，强调了可持续城市规划的迫切需要。1997年亚洲金融危机和2019年出台的土地税法等经济因素影响了土地利用模式，进一步加剧了SUHI效应。该研究强调了综合城市管理和可持续土地利用政策的必要性，以增强BMR等快速城市化地区的气候适应能力。

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