Pub Date : 2025-04-09DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100294
Shan Sang , Yan Li , Shuang Zong , Lu Yu , Shuai Wang , Yanxu Liu , Xutong Wu , Shuang Song , Xuhui Wang , Bojie Fu
A mechanistic understanding and modeling of the coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) are frontier of geographical sciences and essential for promoting regional sustainability. Modeling regional CHANS in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) featuring high water stress, intense human interference, and a fragile ecosystem has always been a complex challenge. Here, we propose a conceptual modeling framework to capture key human-natural components and their interactions, focusing on human-water dynamics. The modeling framework encompasses five human (Population, Economy, Energy, Food, and Water Demand) and five natural sectors (Water Supply, Sediment, Land, Carbon, and Climate) that can be either fully interactive or standalone. The modeling framework, implemented using the system dynamics (SD) approach, can well reproduce the basin's historical evolution in human-natural processes and predict future dynamics under various scenarios. The flexibility, adaptability, and potential for integration with diverse methods position the framework as an instructive tool for guiding regional CHANS modeling. Our insights highlight pathways to advance regional CHANS modeling and its application to address regional sustainability challenges.
{"title":"The modeling framework of the coupled human and natural systems in the Yellow River Basin","authors":"Shan Sang , Yan Li , Shuang Zong , Lu Yu , Shuai Wang , Yanxu Liu , Xutong Wu , Shuang Song , Xuhui Wang , Bojie Fu","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100294","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100294","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A mechanistic understanding and modeling of the coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) are frontier of geographical sciences and essential for promoting regional sustainability. Modeling regional CHANS in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) featuring high water stress, intense human interference, and a fragile ecosystem has always been a complex challenge. Here, we propose a conceptual modeling framework to capture key human-natural components and their interactions, focusing on human-water dynamics. The modeling framework encompasses five human (Population, Economy, Energy, Food, and Water Demand) and five natural sectors (Water Supply, Sediment, Land, Carbon, and Climate) that can be either fully interactive or standalone. The modeling framework, implemented using the system dynamics (SD) approach, can well reproduce the basin's historical evolution in human-natural processes and predict future dynamics under various scenarios. The flexibility, adaptability, and potential for integration with diverse methods position the framework as an instructive tool for guiding regional CHANS modeling. Our insights highlight pathways to advance regional CHANS modeling and its application to address regional sustainability challenges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 4","pages":"Article 100294"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143913230","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-04-09DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100297
Xiaojia Han , Guangyao Gao , Junze Zhang , Zhuangzhuang Wang , Xutong Wu , Yihe Lü
Integrating the supply and demand of ecosystem services (ESs) across various scales is crucial for regional sustainable development. However, the relationships between ESs supply and demand, along with their determinants, have not been thoroughly investigated from a multi-spatial perspective. In this study, we quantified four ESs (carbon sequestration, water yield, food supply, and soil conservation) at six spatial scales (pixel, 10 km, 50 km, county, municipality and watershed scale) in China’s Loess Plateau (LP), characterized by fragile ecological environment and high human activity. The ESs supply-demand matches and their trade-offs or synergies as well as the dominant influencing factors at different scales were identified. There was significant spatial heterogeneity in the distribution of ESs supply and demand across the LP. The balance between ESs supply and demand became obvious from pixel to watershed (municipality) scale, with the area proportion increased by 66.78 %, 57.85 %, and 17.89 % for carbon sequestration, water yield and food supply, respectively. The supply-demand match of paired ESs was dominated by synergistic effects at the grid scales and county scale, and their trade-offs mainly occurred in municipality and watershed scales. Population and GDP emerged as the primary factors influencing the supply-demand matches for carbon sequestration, water yield, and food supply, whereas soil conservation was primarily shaped by natural factors. Furthermore, the influence of dominant factors strengthened as the spatial scale increases. The load coefficient of GDP, land use degree and human activities index increased by 0.5057, 0.6985 and 0.6705 from pixel scale to watershed scale, respectively. Thus, implementation of specific management measures should consider both the overall situation of ESs at large scale and influencing factors at small scale. This multi-scale study sheds light on understanding the interactions between supply and demand in different ESs, and provides new insights for hierarchical ecosystem management.
{"title":"Spatial scale-dependence and controlling factors of ecosystem service supply-demand relationships in the Loess Plateau of China","authors":"Xiaojia Han , Guangyao Gao , Junze Zhang , Zhuangzhuang Wang , Xutong Wu , Yihe Lü","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100297","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100297","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Integrating the supply and demand of ecosystem services (ESs) across various scales is crucial for regional sustainable development. However, the relationships between ESs supply and demand, along with their determinants, have not been thoroughly investigated from a multi-spatial perspective. In this study, we quantified four ESs (carbon sequestration, water yield, food supply, and soil conservation) at six spatial scales (pixel, 10 km, 50 km, county, municipality and watershed scale) in China’s Loess Plateau (LP), characterized by fragile ecological environment and high human activity. The ESs supply-demand matches and their trade-offs or synergies as well as the dominant influencing factors at different scales were identified. There was significant spatial heterogeneity in the distribution of ESs supply and demand across the LP. The balance between ESs supply and demand became obvious from pixel to watershed (municipality) scale, with the area proportion increased by 66.78 %, 57.85 %, and 17.89 % for carbon sequestration, water yield and food supply, respectively. The supply-demand match of paired ESs was dominated by synergistic effects at the grid scales and county scale, and their trade-offs mainly occurred in municipality and watershed scales. Population and GDP emerged as the primary factors influencing the supply-demand matches for carbon sequestration, water yield, and food supply, whereas soil conservation was primarily shaped by natural factors. Furthermore, the influence of dominant factors strengthened as the spatial scale increases. The load coefficient of GDP, land use degree and human activities index increased by 0.5057, 0.6985 and 0.6705 from pixel scale to watershed scale, respectively. Thus, implementation of specific management measures should consider both the overall situation of ESs at large scale and influencing factors at small scale. This multi-scale study sheds light on understanding the interactions between supply and demand in different ESs, and provides new insights for hierarchical ecosystem management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 4","pages":"Article 100297"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143879349","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-04-02DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100293
Anne Warchold , Prajal Pradhan
Countries worldwide are leveraging the 2030 Agenda and its 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for building a more resilient and sustainable future. One solution in this endeavour is transitioning towards a bioeconomy (BE), utilizing renewable resources and low-carbon value chains to meet food, energy, and materials demands. However, BE is neither inherently circular nor sustainable, compromising SDGs’ progress. Therefore, we conducted a detailed ex-post analysis using correlation, transfer entropy, and network analysis to understand the complex causal interactions between BE and SDGs. Moving beyond correlation, we explored the directional influence of interactions within the BE-SDG nexus. Our findings reveal a robust bidirectional influence between 19 BE criteria and 109 SDG targets across all goals among 48 European countries. While BE can drive progress toward SDGs, a balanced distribution of synergies and trade-offs constrains its impact. Collaborative efforts among European countries would effectively drive towards achieving both BE and SDGs. SDG 13 has positive influences from lowered fossil fuel emissions and negative ones due to land use changes and intensified agriculture, which releases stored carbon. Similarly, SDG 15 emerges as a positive influence, as healthy ecosystem services foster a resilient BE. Despite efforts towards SDG 12, Europe’s unsustainable consumption impedes BE supply chains. While BE practices are intended to accelerate sustainability, they fall short of playing a transformational role in achieving the SDGs. A shift towards a cohesive, collaborative strategy that leverages synergies and mitigates trade-offs can enhance the BE’s impact, advancing Europe closer to achieving the 2030 Agenda.
{"title":"Bioeconomy and sustainable development goals: How do their interactions matter?","authors":"Anne Warchold , Prajal Pradhan","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100293","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100293","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Countries worldwide are leveraging the 2030 Agenda and its 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for building a more resilient and sustainable future. One solution in this endeavour is transitioning towards a bioeconomy (BE), utilizing renewable resources and low-carbon value chains to meet food, energy, and materials demands. However, BE is neither inherently circular nor sustainable, compromising SDGs’ progress. Therefore, we conducted a detailed ex-post analysis using correlation, transfer entropy, and network analysis to understand the complex causal interactions between BE and SDGs. Moving beyond correlation, we explored the directional influence of interactions within the BE-SDG nexus. Our findings reveal a robust bidirectional influence between 19 BE criteria and 109 SDG targets across all goals among 48 European countries. While BE can drive progress toward SDGs, a balanced distribution of synergies and trade-offs constrains its impact. Collaborative efforts among European countries would effectively drive towards achieving both BE and SDGs. SDG 13 has positive influences from lowered fossil fuel emissions and negative ones due to land use changes and intensified agriculture, which releases stored carbon. Similarly, SDG 15 emerges as a positive influence, as healthy ecosystem services foster a resilient BE. Despite efforts towards SDG 12, Europe’s unsustainable consumption impedes BE supply chains. While BE practices are intended to accelerate sustainability, they fall short of playing a transformational role in achieving the SDGs. A shift towards a cohesive, collaborative strategy that leverages synergies and mitigates trade-offs can enhance the BE’s impact, advancing Europe closer to achieving the 2030 Agenda.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 3","pages":"Article 100293"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143863769","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Exposure assessment is critical for hazard risk management. It is important to investigate the cropland exposure to compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events because of their severe impacts on agriculture. We quantified the variations in CDHW characteristics (i.e., frequency, duration, and magnitude) and the cropland exposure to CDHW events in Northeast China using 20 CMIP6 climate projections for each of the four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (i.e., SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585). The results indicate that the intensification of CDHW events leading to an anticipated increase in cropland exposure ranges from 1.6-fold to 5.8-fold (the range describes the differences among SSPs), with the west and northeast of the region poised to experience more pronounced increases. Notably, adherence to the SSP126 pathway can reduce both the increase rate of CDHW magnitude and cropland exposure compared to other SSPs. Path analysis demonstrates that cropland exposure is primarily driven by maximum temperature (Tmax). Although precipitation (Pre) increases (0.36–0.75 mm year-1), the rise in potential evapotranspiration (PET) due to global warming is higher than that of Pre (0.26–1.07 mm year-1) except for SSP126, resulting in more drought events. Futhermore, elevated Tmax increases the frequency of extreme temperature events. Therefore, increases in Tmax and agricultural land area collectively contribute to exposure rise, with Tmax being the dominant factor in this process. Our findings emphasize the pivotal role of regulating the development pathway into SSP126 for sustainable agriculture, and optimizing crop patterns and planting heat-tolerant crop varieties are recommended for CDHW adaption.
暴露评估对危害风险管理至关重要。干旱和热浪复合事件对农业生产的影响很大，因此研究干旱和热浪复合事件对农业生产的影响具有重要意义。我们利用CMIP6对4条共享社会经济路径（即SSP126、SSP245、SSP370和SSP585）的20个气候预测，量化了中国东北地区CDHW特征（即频率、持续时间和强度）和耕地暴露度的变化。结果表明，CDHW事件的加剧导致耕地暴露量预计增加1.6 ~ 5.8倍（该范围描述了ssp之间的差异），该地区西部和东北部将经历更明显的增加。值得注意的是，与其他ssp相比，坚持SSP126途径可以降低CDHW强度的增加速度和农田暴露。通径分析表明，耕地暴露主要受最高温度（Tmax）驱动。虽然降水（Pre）增加（0.36 ~ 0.75 mm -1），但由于全球变暖导致潜在蒸散（PET）的增加（0.26 ~ 1.07 mm -1）高于Pre （SSP126除外），导致干旱事件增多。此外，Tmax的升高增加了极端温度事件的发生频率。因此，Tmax和农用地面积的增加共同促进了暴露量的增加，其中Tmax是这一过程中的主导因素。我们的研究结果强调了调节SSP126的发育途径对可持续农业的关键作用，并建议优化作物模式和种植耐热作物品种来适应CDHW。
{"title":"Temperature drives the variations in cropland exposure to compound drought and heatwave events under future climate in Northeast China","authors":"Chuanwei Zhang , Jiangbo Gao , Lulu Liu , Yanjun Shen , Shaohong Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100292","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100292","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Exposure assessment is critical for hazard risk management. It is important to investigate the cropland exposure to compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events because of their severe impacts on agriculture. We quantified the variations in CDHW characteristics (i.e., frequency, duration, and magnitude) and the cropland exposure to CDHW events in Northeast China using 20 CMIP6 climate projections for each of the four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (i.e., SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585). The results indicate that the intensification of CDHW events leading to an anticipated increase in cropland exposure ranges from 1.6-fold to 5.8-fold (the range describes the differences among SSPs), with the west and northeast of the region poised to experience more pronounced increases. Notably, adherence to the SSP126 pathway can reduce both the increase rate of CDHW magnitude and cropland exposure compared to other SSPs. Path analysis demonstrates that cropland exposure is primarily driven by maximum temperature (Tmax). Although precipitation (Pre) increases (0.36–0.75 mm year<sup>-1</sup>), the rise in potential evapotranspiration (PET) due to global warming is higher than that of Pre (0.26–1.07 mm year<sup>-1</sup>) except for SSP126, resulting in more drought events. Futhermore, elevated Tmax increases the frequency of extreme temperature events. Therefore, increases in Tmax and agricultural land area collectively contribute to exposure rise, with Tmax being the dominant factor in this process. Our findings emphasize the pivotal role of regulating the development pathway into SSP126 for sustainable agriculture, and optimizing crop patterns and planting heat-tolerant crop varieties are recommended for CDHW adaption.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 4","pages":"Article 100292"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143875068","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-17DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100287
Yuanyuan Bai , Shao Sun , Yingjun Xu , Yi Zhao , Yujie Pan , Yao Xiao , Ruoxin Li
In recent years, urban floods have increased in frequency and severity due to intensified extreme rainfall events exacerbated by rapid urbanization. This study integrates a Markov-PLUS model and a rainfall-runoff-flood hydraulic numerical model to establish a scenario-based research framework for identifying interactions between land use dynamics and urban flood risk, using the Jialu River basin in Zhengzhou, China, as a case study. Future land use changes under three scenarios were forecast: Natural Development (ND), Economic Development (ED), and Ecological Protection (EP), alongside rainfall scenarios occurring every 10, 50, and 100 years. There were expansions and decreases in construction land under the ED and EP scenarios, respectively, emphasizing the importance of prioritizing ecological conservation. Economic scenarios showed the highest risks under the increased surface runoff and flood risk driven by higher rainstorm intensity. Over the next 15 years, the Economic Development scenario is projected to increase flood hazard areas, whereas the intensified Ecological Protection scenario is expected to reduce these risks. This underscores the contribution of prioritizing ecological conservation to mitigating disaster risks, calling for enhanced drainage systems and elevated flood protection standards to promote resilient urban development in the face of increasingly severe urban flood challenges.
{"title":"Exploring the dynamic impact of future land use changes on urban flood disasters: A case study in Zhengzhou City, China","authors":"Yuanyuan Bai , Shao Sun , Yingjun Xu , Yi Zhao , Yujie Pan , Yao Xiao , Ruoxin Li","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100287","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100287","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In recent years, urban floods have increased in frequency and severity due to intensified extreme rainfall events exacerbated by rapid urbanization. This study integrates a Markov-PLUS model and a rainfall-runoff-flood hydraulic numerical model to establish a scenario-based research framework for identifying interactions between land use dynamics and urban flood risk, using the Jialu River basin in Zhengzhou, China, as a case study. Future land use changes under three scenarios were forecast: Natural Development (ND), Economic Development (ED), and Ecological Protection (EP), alongside rainfall scenarios occurring every 10, 50, and 100 years. There were expansions and decreases in construction land under the ED and EP scenarios, respectively, emphasizing the importance of prioritizing ecological conservation. Economic scenarios showed the highest risks under the increased surface runoff and flood risk driven by higher rainstorm intensity. Over the next 15 years, the Economic Development scenario is projected to increase flood hazard areas, whereas the intensified Ecological Protection scenario is expected to reduce these risks. This underscores the contribution of prioritizing ecological conservation to mitigating disaster risks, calling for enhanced drainage systems and elevated flood protection standards to promote resilient urban development in the face of increasingly severe urban flood challenges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 4","pages":"Article 100287"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143881327","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-13DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100286
Paulo Pereira , Miguel Inacio , Damia Barcelo , Wenwu Zhao
Ecosystem services (ES) mapping and models have advanced in recent years. Improvements were made, and the assessments have transitioned from qualitative to quantitative. Although this is an important advancement, the ES mapping and modelling validation step has been overlooked, and this raises an important question in the credibility of the outcomes. This has been an important and unsolved issue in the ES research community that needs to be tackled. This highlight paper discusses the importance of validating single ES mapping and models. Conducting this using field or proximal/remote sensing raw data and not data from other models or stakeholder evaluation is important. A validation step should be mandatory in ES frameworks since it can assess the models’ veracity, contribute to identifying the model’s weaknesses/strengths and ultimately represent a scientific advance in the field. This is easier to apply to the biophysical mapping and models of regulating and provisioning ES than to cultural ES, as the latter rely more on perception and cultural contexts. Also, ES supply models are easier to validate than demand and flow models. Robust and well-grounded models are essential for ensuring the reliability of individual ES maps and models and should be integrated into decision-making processes. Although several challenges arise related to the costs of data collection, in several cases prohibitive, and the time and the expertise needed to conduct this sampling and analysis, this is likely an imperative step that needs to be considered in the future. This will be beneficial in establishing ES research and improving decision-making and wellbeing.
{"title":"Ecosystem services mapping and modelling. Where is the validation?","authors":"Paulo Pereira , Miguel Inacio , Damia Barcelo , Wenwu Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100286","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100286","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ecosystem services (ES) mapping and models have advanced in recent years. Improvements were made, and the assessments have transitioned from qualitative to quantitative. Although this is an important advancement, the ES mapping and modelling validation step has been overlooked, and this raises an important question in the credibility of the outcomes. This has been an important and unsolved issue in the ES research community that needs to be tackled. This highlight paper discusses the importance of validating single ES mapping and models. Conducting this using field or proximal/remote sensing raw data and not data from other models or stakeholder evaluation is important. A validation step should be mandatory in ES frameworks since it can assess the models’ veracity, contribute to identifying the model’s weaknesses/strengths and ultimately represent a scientific advance in the field. This is easier to apply to the biophysical mapping and models of regulating and provisioning ES than to cultural ES, as the latter rely more on perception and cultural contexts. Also, ES supply models are easier to validate than demand and flow models. Robust and well-grounded models are essential for ensuring the reliability of individual ES maps and models and should be integrated into decision-making processes. Although several challenges arise related to the costs of data collection, in several cases prohibitive, and the time and the expertise needed to conduct this sampling and analysis, this is likely an imperative step that needs to be considered in the future. This will be beneficial in establishing ES research and improving decision-making and wellbeing.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 3","pages":"Article 100286"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143685678","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-11DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100285
Bojie Fu , Junze Zhang , Xutong Wu , Michael E. Meadows
Based on the frequency of themes covered at the 35th International Geographical Congress (IGC) and the 2024 American Association of Geographers Annual Meeting (AAG-AM), we present an integrated analysis of current research hotspots in geography. The interdisciplinary approach of geography in tackling global challenges, including climate change, urbanization, and sustainable development is highlighted. Hotspot analysis of the 35th IGC reveals the prominence of “Tourism, Leisure, and Global Change,” and “Urban Geography” as key themes, whereas the 2024 AAG-AM placed more emphasis on “GeoAI and Deep Learning,” and “Geospatial Data Science for Sustainability.” Frontier analysis, based on emerging research beyond the two conferences, highlights major critical issues being confronted by geographers, notably Earth’s surface systems, spatial patterns of human activities, intelligent remote sensing, climate change adaptation, biodiversity conservation, hazards and disaster risk, planetary boundaries, coupled human and natural systems, and global and regional sustainability. The analysis demonstrates that geographical research is becoming more diverse and systematic, and artificial intelligence technology is increasingly being harnessed. This not only reflects specific regional interests and priorities but also shows the dynamic development of geographical research and its important role in dealing with the challenges of the 21st century.
{"title":"Geography’s hotspots and frontiers: Diverse, systematic, and intelligent trends","authors":"Bojie Fu , Junze Zhang , Xutong Wu , Michael E. Meadows","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100285","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100285","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Based on the frequency of themes covered at the 35th International Geographical Congress (IGC) and the 2024 American Association of Geographers Annual Meeting (AAG-AM), we present an integrated analysis of current research hotspots in geography. The interdisciplinary approach of geography in tackling global challenges, including climate change, urbanization, and sustainable development is highlighted. Hotspot analysis of the 35th IGC reveals the prominence of “Tourism, Leisure, and Global Change,” and “Urban Geography” as key themes, whereas the 2024 AAG-AM placed more emphasis on “GeoAI and Deep Learning,” and “Geospatial Data Science for Sustainability.” Frontier analysis, based on emerging research beyond the two conferences, highlights major critical issues being confronted by geographers, notably Earth’s surface systems, spatial patterns of human activities, intelligent remote sensing, climate change adaptation, biodiversity conservation, hazards and disaster risk, planetary boundaries, coupled human and natural systems, and global and regional sustainability. The analysis demonstrates that geographical research is becoming more diverse and systematic, and artificial intelligence technology is increasingly being harnessed. This not only reflects specific regional interests and priorities but also shows the dynamic development of geographical research and its important role in dealing with the challenges of the 21st century.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 2","pages":"Article 100285"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143636781","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-06DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.100253
Peng Li , Xianghao Jin , Xia Li
The interactions between fire, ecosystems, and climate are complex. Tropical ecosystems have dominated global active fires nowadays, yet its causes, mechanisms, and consequences remain relatively poorly understood. To investigate temporal response of remotely-sensed active fires to intra-annual climate change, several 1-km datasets, including the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Collection 6 (MODIS C6) active fires and the Climatologies at High Resolution for the Earth’s Land Surface Areas (CHELSA) climate variables, were gathered to examine the climatic characteristics of active fire incidences, fire-climate correlations, and the average monthly response of active fire occurrences to climate change using the Geographic Information System (GIS) Fishnet tool, Theil-Sen Median slope estimation, Mann-Kendall significance test, and Pearson’s correlation. We concluded that climate variables’ trends of nearly two-decade active fires displayed varied degrees of increment in precipitation (Pre), temperature (Tas), and surface downwelling shortwave radiation (Rsds) and inconsistent decrement in near-surface relative humidity (Hurs) and near-surface wind speed (sfcWind). MODIS multi-year (2003–2018) active fires were moderately to strongly correlated negatively with Pre and Hurs at 10 km grid-resolution but positively with sfcWind and Rsds, showing marked geographical variations in correlation direction and strength. The most significant finding is the newly observed inverse relationship between active fires and precipitation on both sides of the equator. High occurrence areas of active fires regularly appear back and forth along with latitudinal changes (at one-degree intervals) in monthly minimum precipitation between the tropical Northern and Southern Hemispheres. The present study contributes to exploring the underlying mechanism of fire-climate interactions against the backdrop of climate warming.
{"title":"How do tropical active fires respond to intra-annual climate change in the early 21st century?","authors":"Peng Li , Xianghao Jin , Xia Li","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.100253","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.100253","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The interactions between fire, ecosystems, and climate are complex. Tropical ecosystems have dominated global active fires nowadays, yet its causes, mechanisms, and consequences remain relatively poorly understood. To investigate temporal response of remotely-sensed active fires to intra-annual climate change, several 1-km datasets, including the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Collection 6 (MODIS C6) active fires and the Climatologies at High Resolution for the Earth’s Land Surface Areas (CHELSA) climate variables, were gathered to examine the climatic characteristics of active fire incidences, fire-climate correlations, and the average monthly response of active fire occurrences to climate change using the Geographic Information System (GIS) Fishnet tool, Theil-Sen Median slope estimation, Mann-Kendall significance test, and Pearson’s correlation. We concluded that climate variables’ trends of nearly two-decade active fires displayed varied degrees of increment in precipitation (Pre), temperature (Tas), and surface downwelling shortwave radiation (Rsds) and inconsistent decrement in near-surface relative humidity (Hurs) and near-surface wind speed (sfcWind). MODIS multi-year (2003–2018) active fires were moderately to strongly correlated negatively with Pre and Hurs at 10 km grid-resolution but positively with sfcWind and Rsds, showing marked geographical variations in correlation direction and strength. The most significant finding is the newly observed inverse relationship between active fires and precipitation on both sides of the equator. High occurrence areas of active fires regularly appear back and forth along with latitudinal changes (at one-degree intervals) in monthly minimum precipitation between the tropical Northern and Southern Hemispheres. The present study contributes to exploring the underlying mechanism of fire-climate interactions against the backdrop of climate warming.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 3","pages":"Article 100253"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143739156","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-04DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100283
Kaiping Wang , Chenxing Wang , Jingran Gao , Yimei Chen , Hanqi Tang , Yunlu Zhang , Zhaowu Yu
Urbanization significantly affects the balance of key elements such as water, heat, and carbon in cities. However, previous studies have not integrated these factors for comprehensive analysis. Here, we proposed a water-heat-carbon (WHC) nexus model to provide a holistic understanding of urbanization’s impacts. Furthermore, we employed the model to identify the mechanisms and response thresholds of urbanization through this coupling approach. Our findings reveal three key insights: (1) WHC exhibits a nonlinear, inverted S-shaped response to urbanization. (2) The mechanisms through which urbanization impacts WHC differ significantly across urbanization gradients. Acrossing urbanization gradients, the complexity of impact pathways increases, with direct effects becoming more pronounced and positive impact pathways emerging progressively. (3) We identified priority zones for restoration and protection based on the likelihood of units shifting between lower-risk and higher-risk categories. Our study enhances understanding of the WHC-urbanization nexus and highlights the importance of accounting for threshold effects and environmental interactions when examining the impact between urbanization and WHC. This framework can be adapted to other urban areas experiencing similar challenges.
{"title":"Water-heat-carbon nexus for understanding mechanisms and response thresholds across urbanization gradients","authors":"Kaiping Wang , Chenxing Wang , Jingran Gao , Yimei Chen , Hanqi Tang , Yunlu Zhang , Zhaowu Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100283","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100283","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Urbanization significantly affects the balance of key elements such as water, heat, and carbon in cities. However, previous studies have not integrated these factors for comprehensive analysis. Here, we proposed a water-heat-carbon (WHC) nexus model to provide a holistic understanding of urbanization’s impacts. Furthermore, we employed the model to identify the mechanisms and response thresholds of urbanization through this coupling approach. Our findings reveal three key insights: (1) WHC exhibits a nonlinear, inverted S-shaped response to urbanization. (2) The mechanisms through which urbanization impacts WHC differ significantly across urbanization gradients. Acrossing urbanization gradients, the complexity of impact pathways increases, with direct effects becoming more pronounced and positive impact pathways emerging progressively. (3) We identified priority zones for restoration and protection based on the likelihood of units shifting between lower-risk and higher-risk categories. Our study enhances understanding of the WHC-urbanization nexus and highlights the importance of accounting for threshold effects and environmental interactions when examining the impact between urbanization and WHC. This framework can be adapted to other urban areas experiencing similar challenges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 4","pages":"Article 100283"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143870056","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-03DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100282
Qiaoxian Bai , Zhifeng Liu , Binghua Gong , Shuhui Liu , Xufeng Mao , Chunyang He
The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau (QXP) serves as a vital ecological security barrier in China and the broader Asian region. The delineation of urban growth boundaries (UGBs) in this region with consideration of socioeconomic development and ecological protection is urgently needed, but there is a lack of such research. The objective of this study is to delineate the UGBs on the QXP during 2020–2100 to simultaneously meet the needs of socioeconomic development and ecosystem services (ESs) protection. To achieve this purpose, under a scenario matrix integrating shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and ESs protection, the urban expansion on the QXP during 2020–2100 was simulated by coupling the ESs assessment models and the zoned Land Use Scenario Dynamics-urban (LUSD-urban) model. Finally, we compared the spatial patterns of the UGBs and the conservation effectiveness of ESs under different scenarios. The extent of UGBs on the QXP is projected to reach 2,045.60–2,231.10 km2, which is 62.23 %–76.95 % greater than the urban land area (1,260.90 km2) in 2020. Protecting the ESs can reduce the loss of the average natural habitat quality, food production, and carbon sequestration by 33.29 %–34.27 %, 8.61 %–18.23 %, and 36.56 %–40.34 %, respectively. Protecting food production and carbon sequestration in Qinghai Province are more effective, but in the Xizang Autonomous Region, protecting ESs has a considerable trade-off effect. The UGBs delineated in this study can offer a reference for future urban planning on the QXP.
{"title":"Delineation of future urban growth boundaries on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau by integrating socioeconomic development and ecosystem services conservation","authors":"Qiaoxian Bai , Zhifeng Liu , Binghua Gong , Shuhui Liu , Xufeng Mao , Chunyang He","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100282","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100282","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau (QXP) serves as a vital ecological security barrier in China and the broader Asian region. The delineation of urban growth boundaries (UGBs) in this region with consideration of socioeconomic development and ecological protection is urgently needed, but there is a lack of such research. The objective of this study is to delineate the UGBs on the QXP during 2020–2100 to simultaneously meet the needs of socioeconomic development and ecosystem services (ESs) protection. To achieve this purpose, under a scenario matrix integrating shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and ESs protection, the urban expansion on the QXP during 2020–2100 was simulated by coupling the ESs assessment models and the zoned Land Use Scenario Dynamics-urban (LUSD-urban) model. Finally, we compared the spatial patterns of the UGBs and the conservation effectiveness of ESs under different scenarios. The extent of UGBs on the QXP is projected to reach 2,045.60–2,231.10 km<sup>2</sup>, which is 62.23 %–76.95 % greater than the urban land area (1,260.90 km<sup>2</sup>) in 2020. Protecting the ESs can reduce the loss of the average natural habitat quality, food production, and carbon sequestration by 33.29 %–34.27 %, 8.61 %–18.23 %, and 36.56 %–40.34 %, respectively. Protecting food production and carbon sequestration in Qinghai Province are more effective, but in the Xizang Autonomous Region, protecting ESs has a considerable trade-off effect. The UGBs delineated in this study can offer a reference for future urban planning on the QXP.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 4","pages":"Article 100282"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143863522","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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