Pub Date : 2025-10-01Epub Date: 2025-06-23DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100330
Xi Chen , Jinwei Dong , Zhichao Li , Li Sun , Chuantao Ren , Guoming Du , Yuanyuan Di , Nanshan You , Xiaoyong Liao
State farms, although a minority in China’s agricultural sector, play a critical role in regions like Heilongjiang, leading national food production. However, how state farms (SFs) and rural household farms (RFs) respond to food policies, especially the 2017 soybean subsidy policy (post-Sino–U.S. trade war) and the 2019 soybean revitalization policy, remains unclear. This study examines changes in cropping patterns on SFs and RFs in Heilongjiang from 2013 to 2022 using annual crop maps. We find that SFs, with larger and more clustered fields, responded more effectively to the soybean policies: soybean acreage recovery (2019–2021) reached 91.51 % of pre-trade war levels for RFs and 98.2 % for SFs; following the revitalization policy, maize-soybean rotations were implemented four times in 62.3 % of SFs and 45.4 % of RFs. These results highlight the influence of global trade and agricultural policies on cropland management, providing critical insights into sustainable practices and food security across different agricultural systems.
{"title":"Same soybean policy, different responses of agricultural systems: Comparing effectiveness of cropping pattern adjusting in state farms and rural household farms of Heilongjiang, China","authors":"Xi Chen , Jinwei Dong , Zhichao Li , Li Sun , Chuantao Ren , Guoming Du , Yuanyuan Di , Nanshan You , Xiaoyong Liao","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100330","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100330","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>State farms, although a minority in China’s agricultural sector, play a critical role in regions like Heilongjiang, leading national food production. However, how state farms (SFs) and rural household farms (RFs) respond to food policies, especially the 2017 soybean subsidy policy (post-Sino–U.S. trade war) and the 2019 soybean revitalization policy, remains unclear. This study examines changes in cropping patterns on SFs and RFs in Heilongjiang from 2013 to 2022 using annual crop maps. We find that SFs, with larger and more clustered fields, responded more effectively to the soybean policies: soybean acreage recovery (2019–2021) reached 91.51 % of pre-trade war levels for RFs and 98.2 % for SFs; following the revitalization policy, maize-soybean rotations were implemented four times in 62.3 % of SFs and 45.4 % of RFs. These results highlight the influence of global trade and agricultural policies on cropland management, providing critical insights into sustainable practices and food security across different agricultural systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 5","pages":"Article 100330"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144713467","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-01Epub Date: 2025-05-22DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100309
Jianguo (Jingle) Wu , Julius Addai , Macharia Consolata , Zening Gao , Erica Martin , Emily Sezate Yasutake , Yucang Wang
Achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) requires place-based solutions that reconcile global aspirations with local realities. Landscapes and regions represent a pivotal scale domain—large enough to capture cross-boundary ecological and socioeconomic processes, yet sufficiently grounded to enable context-sensitive understanding and governance. Landscape sustainability science offers a robust framework for bridging the global-local divide in SDG implementation. Rooted in the long-standing convergence between ecology and geography—tracing back to Humboldt’s unity of nature—landscape sustainability science advances a spatially explicit, systems-oriented approach guided by the principles of strong sustainability. Here we present the landscape sustainability science framework, structured around the core triad of landscape pattern, ecosystem services, and human wellbeing, and operationalized through dual feedback loops and the analysis–adaptation–assessment cycle. Our assessment shows that landscape sustainability science contributes directly to eight SDGs and indirectly to six others, offering actionable strategies for climate resilience, sustainable land management, and inclusive landscape governance. By helping to spatialize, localize, and operationalize global sustainability targets, landscape sustainability science provides a pragmatic pathway to advance the SDGs in diverse socioecological contexts. If global sustainability is to be achieved, we must think and act like a landscape.
{"title":"Landscape sustainability science and the Sustainable Development Goals","authors":"Jianguo (Jingle) Wu , Julius Addai , Macharia Consolata , Zening Gao , Erica Martin , Emily Sezate Yasutake , Yucang Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100309","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100309","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) requires place-based solutions that reconcile global aspirations with local realities. Landscapes and regions represent a pivotal scale domain—large enough to capture cross-boundary ecological and socioeconomic processes, yet sufficiently grounded to enable context-sensitive understanding and governance. Landscape sustainability science offers a robust framework for bridging the global-local divide in SDG implementation. Rooted in the long-standing convergence between ecology and geography—tracing back to Humboldt’s unity of nature—landscape sustainability science advances a spatially explicit, systems-oriented approach guided by the principles of strong sustainability. Here we present the landscape sustainability science framework, structured around the core triad of landscape pattern, ecosystem services, and human wellbeing, and operationalized through dual feedback loops and the analysis–adaptation–assessment cycle. Our assessment shows that landscape sustainability science contributes directly to eight SDGs and indirectly to six others, offering actionable strategies for climate resilience, sustainable land management, and inclusive landscape governance. By helping to spatialize, localize, and operationalize global sustainability targets, landscape sustainability science provides a pragmatic pathway to advance the SDGs in diverse socioecological contexts. If global sustainability is to be achieved, we must think and act like a landscape.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 5","pages":"Article 100309"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144221314","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-01Epub Date: 2025-07-07DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100335
Edward Park , Dung Duc Tran , Philip S.J. Minderhoud , Ryan Clarke , Faith Ka Shun Chan
Although the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) is recognised as one of the world’s most vulnerable deltas, scholars have yet to provide an integrated diagnosis linking locally driven pressures to actionable pathways for halting its rapid elevation loss. The VMD—39,000 km² that feeds 18 million people—is sinking because four pressures act in concert: upstream dams have already cut sediment delivery by 70 %–83 % (projected 96 % if all planned projects proceed), mean sea level is rising 1.5–2 cm/yr, river-bed sand mining now removes about 3 Mm³/yr and deepens channels by up to 15 cm/yr, and groundwater withdrawals of approximately 2.5 Mm³/day have accelerated land-surface subsidence from smaller than 3 cm/yr in 2006–2010 to peaks of 5–6 cm/yr today. Scenario modelling shows that halving pumping would stabilize aquifer heads and cut subsidence by about 50 % within a decade, while provincial sand-quota cuts of 30 %–50 % would slow bed incision and ease salinity intrusion, reducing the irrigation deficits that drive further pumping. While the large-scale causes of subsidence (dams, sea level rise, sand mining, groundwater extraction) are well recognized, actionable, local-level management solutions to immediately slow subsidence and salinity intrusion—independent of slow international negotiations—have been underexplored and under-implemented. Because dam and climate remedies rely on slow transboundary negotiations, we target the more practical local pressures—sand mining and groundwater extraction—by first tightening sand-mining licenses, enforcing tiered groundwater tariffs, and scaling up rain- and surface-water alternatives, buying time for longer-term basin and climate agreements. These locally actionable measures can significantly reduce subsidence and provide a scalable model for sustaining deltas around the world.
{"title":"Practical paths to halt elevation loss in Vietnamese Mekong Delta","authors":"Edward Park , Dung Duc Tran , Philip S.J. Minderhoud , Ryan Clarke , Faith Ka Shun Chan","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100335","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100335","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Although the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) is recognised as one of the world’s most vulnerable deltas, scholars have yet to provide an integrated diagnosis linking locally driven pressures to actionable pathways for halting its rapid elevation loss. The VMD—39,000 km² that feeds 18 million people—is sinking because four pressures act in concert: upstream dams have already cut sediment delivery by 70 %–83 % (projected 96 % if all planned projects proceed), mean sea level is rising 1.5–2 cm/yr, river-bed sand mining now removes about 3 Mm³/yr and deepens channels by up to 15 cm/yr, and groundwater withdrawals of approximately 2.5 Mm³/day have accelerated land-surface subsidence from smaller than 3 cm/yr in 2006–2010 to peaks of 5–6 cm/yr today. Scenario modelling shows that halving pumping would stabilize aquifer heads and cut subsidence by about 50 % within a decade, while provincial sand-quota cuts of 30 %–50 % would slow bed incision and ease salinity intrusion, reducing the irrigation deficits that drive further pumping. While the large-scale causes of subsidence (dams, sea level rise, sand mining, groundwater extraction) are well recognized, actionable, local-level management solutions to immediately slow subsidence and salinity intrusion—independent of slow international negotiations—have been underexplored and under-implemented. Because dam and climate remedies rely on slow transboundary negotiations, we target the more practical local pressures—sand mining and groundwater extraction—by first tightening sand-mining licenses, enforcing tiered groundwater tariffs, and scaling up rain- and surface-water alternatives, buying time for longer-term basin and climate agreements. These locally actionable measures can significantly reduce subsidence and provide a scalable model for sustaining deltas around the world.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 5","pages":"Article 100335"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144771352","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-01Epub Date: 2025-07-12DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100338
Yanhua He , Yi Liu , Xuening Fang
Promoting positive urban–rural interactions is a key strategy for addressing rural decline and advancing regional sustainable development. This study examines the impacts of urban–rural interactions on rural development and explores their mechanisms for advancing sustainability within urban agglomeration areas. Using the Chang–Zhu–Tan (CZT) urban agglomeration as a case study, with an indicator system to measure urban–rural interactions and rural sustainable development, we analyze the mediating effects of resource flows in the process of urban–rural interactions driving rural sustainability through a mediation model. The results show that spatial connectivity, industrial convergence, and social integration between urban and rural areas positively contribute to the economic and social sustainability of rural areas. However, urban–rural spatial connectivity and social integration may negatively impact on rural environment. In this process, capital, technology, and labor play significant mediating roles, whereas the influence of land is less pronounced. Based on these findings, we propose several recommendations for strategically leveraging the benefits of urban–rural interactions across various social-ecological contexts while mitigating their drawbacks.
{"title":"How urban–rural interactions promote sustainable rural development: Evidence from the Chang–Zhu–Tan urban agglomeration, China","authors":"Yanhua He , Yi Liu , Xuening Fang","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100338","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100338","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Promoting positive urban–rural interactions is a key strategy for addressing rural decline and advancing regional sustainable development. This study examines the impacts of urban–rural interactions on rural development and explores their mechanisms for advancing sustainability within urban agglomeration areas. Using the Chang–Zhu–Tan (CZT) urban agglomeration as a case study, with an indicator system to measure urban–rural interactions and rural sustainable development, we analyze the mediating effects of resource flows in the process of urban–rural interactions driving rural sustainability through a mediation model. The results show that spatial connectivity, industrial convergence, and social integration between urban and rural areas positively contribute to the economic and social sustainability of rural areas. However, urban–rural spatial connectivity and social integration may negatively impact on rural environment. In this process, capital, technology, and labor play significant mediating roles, whereas the influence of land is less pronounced. Based on these findings, we propose several recommendations for strategically leveraging the benefits of urban–rural interactions across various social-ecological contexts while mitigating their drawbacks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 5","pages":"Article 100338"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144766835","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-01Epub Date: 2025-05-28DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100318
Xiao Chen , Song Leng , Zhaowu Yu , Ranhao Sun
Elderly individuals disproportionately face heat exposure risk compared to other demographic groups, with projected amplification in the future. The vast disparities between Global North and South countries necessitate a comprehensive understanding of the underlying factors influencing future heat exposure vulnerabilities. Here, we use factor decomposition method to quantify the contribution of climate change, population, and aging to heat exposure risk under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585) from 2000 to 2100 at 20-year intervals. Results demonstrate a projected global escalation in heat exposure risk by 16 and 76 times under SSP126 and SSP585, respectively, with the North generally suffering lower risk than the South. Climate change emerges as a pivotal driver of future heat exposure risk in the North while aging notably influences the South. Despite climate change is projected to reduce heat exposure risk by up to 10 % in the North under SSP1-2.6 by the end of the 21st century, aging remains a critical risk factor.
{"title":"Global aging exacerbates heat exposure risk across diverse socioeconomic pathways","authors":"Xiao Chen , Song Leng , Zhaowu Yu , Ranhao Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100318","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100318","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Elderly individuals disproportionately face heat exposure risk compared to other demographic groups, with projected amplification in the future. The vast disparities between Global North and South countries necessitate a comprehensive understanding of the underlying factors influencing future heat exposure vulnerabilities. Here, we use factor decomposition method to quantify the contribution of climate change, population, and aging to heat exposure risk under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585) from 2000 to 2100 at 20-year intervals. Results demonstrate a projected global escalation in heat exposure risk by 16 and 76 times under SSP126 and SSP585, respectively, with the North generally suffering lower risk than the South. Climate change emerges as a pivotal driver of future heat exposure risk in the North while aging notably influences the South. Despite climate change is projected to reduce heat exposure risk by up to 10 % in the North under SSP1-2.6 by the end of the 21st century, aging remains a critical risk factor.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 5","pages":"Article 100318"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144536172","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-01Epub Date: 2025-06-16DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100329
Jun Wang , Xiaochi Liu , Xiao Zhang , Yan Gao
The Qinghai–Xizang Plateau is a primary water supply region in Asia. The Lhasa River Basin is the political, economic, and cultural core area and main cultivation area of Qinghai–Xizang Plateau and is considered ecologically fragile. With uneven spatial and temporal distribution of water resources, mismatched supply and demand may accentuate differences in distribution and affect the security of regional water resources. This study employed system dynamics (SD) to measure the supply and demand of water supply services and analyzed the correlation between supply and beneficiary areas by evaluating the supply and demand overlap. Moreover, the 2030 supply–demand relationship was predicted, the pattern of sustainable development of the basin is discussed, and optimization suggestions are proposed. The range of water supply service beneficiary areas in the Lhasa River Basin shows an increasing trend from 2005 to 2020. The spatial distribution of water supply in 2030 is predicted to be the same as that in 2020, while the total amount of water supply is expected to decrease. By 2030, the largest proportion of water demand will be industry, followed by agriculture, forestry, and animal husbandry. Overall, there is a mismatch between water supply and demand services in the Lhasa River Basin, and it is essential to develop a reasonable water resource management and allocation policy as well as an optimized ecological management strategy for the basin through integrated planning. Here, we provide suggestions for the sustainable development and ecological environmental protection of the Lhasa River Basin.
{"title":"Quantifying water supply–demand relationship and spatial flow in Qinghai–Xizang Plateau: Case study of Lhasa River Basin","authors":"Jun Wang , Xiaochi Liu , Xiao Zhang , Yan Gao","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100329","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100329","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Qinghai–Xizang Plateau is a primary water supply region in Asia. The Lhasa River Basin is the political, economic, and cultural core area and main cultivation area of Qinghai–Xizang Plateau and is considered ecologically fragile. With uneven spatial and temporal distribution of water resources, mismatched supply and demand may accentuate differences in distribution and affect the security of regional water resources. This study employed system dynamics (SD) to measure the supply and demand of water supply services and analyzed the correlation between supply and beneficiary areas by evaluating the supply and demand overlap. Moreover, the 2030 supply–demand relationship was predicted, the pattern of sustainable development of the basin is discussed, and optimization suggestions are proposed. The range of water supply service beneficiary areas in the Lhasa River Basin shows an increasing trend from 2005 to 2020. The spatial distribution of water supply in 2030 is predicted to be the same as that in 2020, while the total amount of water supply is expected to decrease. By 2030, the largest proportion of water demand will be industry, followed by agriculture, forestry, and animal husbandry. Overall, there is a mismatch between water supply and demand services in the Lhasa River Basin, and it is essential to develop a reasonable water resource management and allocation policy as well as an optimized ecological management strategy for the basin through integrated planning. Here, we provide suggestions for the sustainable development and ecological environmental protection of the Lhasa River Basin.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 5","pages":"Article 100329"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144579248","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-01Epub Date: 2025-07-11DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100340
Qiancheng Lv , Zeyu Yang , Yuheng Fu , Shaohua Wang , Manchun Li , Bingbo Gao , Jing Yang , Chaoqun Zhang , Jianqiang Hu , Ziyue Chen
Forest biomass carbon storage (BC) plays a critical role in mitigating climate change. However, the spatiotemporal patterns and stability of BC growth in China remain unclear. Using the latest BC maps (2002–2021) and multi-source remote sensing data, we analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamics of BC and applied resilience indicators to reliably assess its stability. Our results show that while China’s long-term BC has continued to increase, the risk of BC losses has also intensified, particularly in old forests (>70 years), where approximately half exhibit a declining trend. Moreover, BC dynamics do not consistently align with resilience changes. About 53.4 % of forests display weakening resilience, directly reducing BC accumulation rates by 23.1 % and amplifying interannual variability. Alarmingly, 10.4 % of forests (BC-, resilience-), predominantly high-BC-density forests (mean: 28.3 tC/ha), face an extremely high risk of carbon loss (carbon emissions: -118 Tg C). We further found that the accelerating effect of resilience weakening on BC losses significantly outweighs the promoting effect of resilience enhancement on BC accumulation (-17.79 ± 4.72 Mg/ha vs. 11.47 ± 3.42 Mg/ha). Our study highlights that China’s BC growth is characterized by unstable components and faces substantial loss risks. In future efforts to enhance forest carbon sinks, greater attention should be paid to changes in forest resilience to improve the stability of biomass carbon sinks and achieve sustainable, long-term carbon sequestration.
森林生物量碳储量对减缓气候变化具有重要作用。然而，中国BC生长的时空格局和稳定性尚不清楚。利用2002-2021年最新的BC地图和多源遥感数据，分析了BC的时空动态，并应用弹性指标可靠地评估了其稳定性。我们的研究结果表明，虽然中国的长期森林覆盖率持续增加，但森林覆盖率损失的风险也在加剧，特别是在老林（>；70年），其中大约一半的森林呈现下降趋势。此外，BC动态并不始终与弹性变化一致。约53.4%的森林恢复力减弱，直接降低了23.1%的BC积累率，并放大了年际变率。令人震惊的是，10.4%的森林（BC-，恢复力-），主要是高BC密度森林（平均：28.3 Tg /ha），面临极高的碳损失风险（碳排放量：-118 Tg C）。我们进一步发现，恢复力减弱对BC损失的加速作用显著大于恢复力增强对BC积累的促进作用（-17.79±4.72 Mg/ha vs. 11.47±3.42 Mg/ha）。我们的研究强调，中国的经济增长具有成分不稳定的特点，面临着巨大的损失风险。在今后加强森林碳汇的工作中，应更加重视森林恢复力的变化，以提高生物量碳汇的稳定性，实现可持续的长期碳汇。
{"title":"Sustainable growth of China’s forest biomass carbon storage since 2002: Facing threats and loss risks","authors":"Qiancheng Lv , Zeyu Yang , Yuheng Fu , Shaohua Wang , Manchun Li , Bingbo Gao , Jing Yang , Chaoqun Zhang , Jianqiang Hu , Ziyue Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100340","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100340","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Forest biomass carbon storage (BC) plays a critical role in mitigating climate change. However, the spatiotemporal patterns and stability of BC growth in China remain unclear. Using the latest BC maps (2002–2021) and multi-source remote sensing data, we analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamics of BC and applied resilience indicators to reliably assess its stability. Our results show that while China’s long-term BC has continued to increase, the risk of BC losses has also intensified, particularly in old forests (>70 years), where approximately half exhibit a declining trend. Moreover, BC dynamics do not consistently align with resilience changes. About 53.4 % of forests display weakening resilience, directly reducing BC accumulation rates by 23.1 % and amplifying interannual variability. Alarmingly, 10.4 % of forests (BC-, resilience-), predominantly high-BC-density forests (mean: 28.3 tC/ha), face an extremely high risk of carbon loss (carbon emissions: -118 Tg C). We further found that the accelerating effect of resilience weakening on BC losses significantly outweighs the promoting effect of resilience enhancement on BC accumulation (-17.79 ± 4.72 Mg/ha vs. 11.47 ± 3.42 Mg/ha). Our study highlights that China’s BC growth is characterized by unstable components and faces substantial loss risks. In future efforts to enhance forest carbon sinks, greater attention should be paid to changes in forest resilience to improve the stability of biomass carbon sinks and achieve sustainable, long-term carbon sequestration.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 5","pages":"Article 100340"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144714194","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-01Epub Date: 2025-06-11DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100325
Hua Liu , Shiliang Liu , Fangfang Wang , Yifei Zhao , Yuhong Dong , Lam-Son Phan Tran
Ecological restoration is considered an important way to mitigate ecosystem degradation and improve regional nature’s contributions to people (NCPs). Ecological planning is a prerequisite for ecological restoration and the prevention of future ecological risks. However, few studies have focused on integrating ecological plans within the framework of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). In this study, taking the Qinghai‒Xizang Plateau (QXP) as a case, we assessed ecological restoration priorities based on NCPs under various SDGs and SSP scenarios. Specifically, the land use demand was predicted using system dynamics (SD) and cellular automata (CA) models between 2030 and 2060 under SDG-SSP scenarios. In addition, habitat maintenance (NCP1), climate regulation (NCP4), and water quantity regulation (NCP6) were assessed based on the predicted land use. Finally, priority areas for ecological restoration were identified using a zonation model. The results indicated that the grassland, forest, and cultivated areas will increase in the SDGs and SSPs scenarios, respectively. The high-value NCP areas are mainly located in the southeast part of the QXP, accounting for 45.16 % of the study area. In addition, the ecological restoration area involves grassland, cultivated and bare land. In the single-objective scenario, NCP1, NCP4, and NCP6 can be improved by 30.29 %, 28.75 % and 25.63 %, respectively, through the restoration of 15.33 % of the priority areas identified in 2015. When shifting to a multi-objective cooperative optimum, NCP1, NCP4 and NCP6 can be improved 35.79 % by restoring 54.96 % of the priority areas. This study provides insight into how SDGs and SSPs can contribute to ecological restoration for mitigating ecosystem degradation under SDG-SSP scenarios.
{"title":"Ecological restoration priority on the Qinghai‒Xizang Plateau based on the nature’s contributions to people under SDGs-SSPs scenarios","authors":"Hua Liu , Shiliang Liu , Fangfang Wang , Yifei Zhao , Yuhong Dong , Lam-Son Phan Tran","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100325","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100325","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ecological restoration is considered an important way to mitigate ecosystem degradation and improve regional nature’s contributions to people (NCPs). Ecological planning is a prerequisite for ecological restoration and the prevention of future ecological risks. However, few studies have focused on integrating ecological plans within the framework of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). In this study, taking the Qinghai‒Xizang Plateau (QXP) as a case, we assessed ecological restoration priorities based on NCPs under various SDGs and SSP scenarios. Specifically, the land use demand was predicted using system dynamics (SD) and cellular automata (CA) models between 2030 and 2060 under SDG-SSP scenarios. In addition, habitat maintenance (NCP1), climate regulation (NCP4), and water quantity regulation (NCP6) were assessed based on the predicted land use. Finally, priority areas for ecological restoration were identified using a zonation model. The results indicated that the grassland, forest, and cultivated areas will increase in the SDGs and SSPs scenarios, respectively. The high-value NCP areas are mainly located in the southeast part of the QXP, accounting for 45.16 % of the study area. In addition, the ecological restoration area involves grassland, cultivated and bare land. In the single-objective scenario, NCP1, NCP4, and NCP6 can be improved by 30.29 %, 28.75 % and 25.63 %, respectively, through the restoration of 15.33 % of the priority areas identified in 2015. When shifting to a multi-objective cooperative optimum, NCP1, NCP4 and NCP6 can be improved 35.79 % by restoring 54.96 % of the priority areas. This study provides insight into how SDGs and SSPs can contribute to ecological restoration for mitigating ecosystem degradation under SDG-SSP scenarios.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 5","pages":"Article 100325"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144563483","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-01Epub Date: 2025-02-05DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100278
Yongyang Wang , Yulei Xie , Lei Chen , Pan Zhang
Enhancing urban resilience is a powerful strategy for mitigating floods caused by both intensive human activities and climate change. However, existing studies have limitations, highlighting the need for a more comprehensive framework for assessing flood resilience based on the resilience evolution process. Therefore, the objective of this study was to develop an integrated framework for evaluating urban flood resilience, incorporating Bayesian networks and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to explore the driving mechanisms behind flood resilience with the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration in China as a case study. The results indicated that: (1) inundation risk, population risk, and flooding mitigation were the most critical indicators influencing urban flood resilience; (2) Chengde and Tangshan emerged as key areas with high resistance capabilities, while Zhangjiakou and Baoding showed notable strengths in functional recovery; (3) the average value of urban flood resilience decreased from 0.58 under a 5-year rainfall return period to 0.54 under a 100-year rainfall return period, representing a 5.6 % decrease, with Zhangjiakou exhibiting the highest flood resilience. These findings are of significant importance for policymakers involved in flood risk management.
{"title":"Identifying key drivers of urban flood resilience for effective management: Insights and implications","authors":"Yongyang Wang , Yulei Xie , Lei Chen , Pan Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100278","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100278","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Enhancing urban resilience is a powerful strategy for mitigating floods caused by both intensive human activities and climate change. However, existing studies have limitations, highlighting the need for a more comprehensive framework for assessing flood resilience based on the resilience evolution process. Therefore, the objective of this study was to develop an integrated framework for evaluating urban flood resilience, incorporating Bayesian networks and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to explore the driving mechanisms behind flood resilience with the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration in China as a case study. The results indicated that: (1) inundation risk, population risk, and flooding mitigation were the most critical indicators influencing urban flood resilience; (2) Chengde and Tangshan emerged as key areas with high resistance capabilities, while Zhangjiakou and Baoding showed notable strengths in functional recovery; (3) the average value of urban flood resilience decreased from 0.58 under a 5-year rainfall return period to 0.54 under a 100-year rainfall return period, representing a 5.6 % decrease, with Zhangjiakou exhibiting the highest flood resilience. These findings are of significant importance for policymakers involved in flood risk management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 4","pages":"Article 100278"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143863523","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-01Epub Date: 2025-03-04DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100283
Kaiping Wang , Chenxing Wang , Jingran Gao , Yimei Chen , Hanqi Tang , Yunlu Zhang , Zhaowu Yu
Urbanization significantly affects the balance of key elements such as water, heat, and carbon in cities. However, previous studies have not integrated these factors for comprehensive analysis. Here, we proposed a water-heat-carbon (WHC) nexus model to provide a holistic understanding of urbanization’s impacts. Furthermore, we employed the model to identify the mechanisms and response thresholds of urbanization through this coupling approach. Our findings reveal three key insights: (1) WHC exhibits a nonlinear, inverted S-shaped response to urbanization. (2) The mechanisms through which urbanization impacts WHC differ significantly across urbanization gradients. Acrossing urbanization gradients, the complexity of impact pathways increases, with direct effects becoming more pronounced and positive impact pathways emerging progressively. (3) We identified priority zones for restoration and protection based on the likelihood of units shifting between lower-risk and higher-risk categories. Our study enhances understanding of the WHC-urbanization nexus and highlights the importance of accounting for threshold effects and environmental interactions when examining the impact between urbanization and WHC. This framework can be adapted to other urban areas experiencing similar challenges.
{"title":"Water-heat-carbon nexus for understanding mechanisms and response thresholds across urbanization gradients","authors":"Kaiping Wang , Chenxing Wang , Jingran Gao , Yimei Chen , Hanqi Tang , Yunlu Zhang , Zhaowu Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100283","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100283","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Urbanization significantly affects the balance of key elements such as water, heat, and carbon in cities. However, previous studies have not integrated these factors for comprehensive analysis. Here, we proposed a water-heat-carbon (WHC) nexus model to provide a holistic understanding of urbanization’s impacts. Furthermore, we employed the model to identify the mechanisms and response thresholds of urbanization through this coupling approach. Our findings reveal three key insights: (1) WHC exhibits a nonlinear, inverted S-shaped response to urbanization. (2) The mechanisms through which urbanization impacts WHC differ significantly across urbanization gradients. Acrossing urbanization gradients, the complexity of impact pathways increases, with direct effects becoming more pronounced and positive impact pathways emerging progressively. (3) We identified priority zones for restoration and protection based on the likelihood of units shifting between lower-risk and higher-risk categories. Our study enhances understanding of the WHC-urbanization nexus and highlights the importance of accounting for threshold effects and environmental interactions when examining the impact between urbanization and WHC. This framework can be adapted to other urban areas experiencing similar challenges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 4","pages":"Article 100283"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143870056","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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