Geography and Sustainability最新文献_第7页

The value of water in agriculture over the past 30 years on the north slope of the Tianshan Mountains 天山北坡近30年农业用水价值分析

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-06-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100327

Peifang Leng , Zhipin Ai , Fadong Li

Water is an indispensable resource for agricultural production. However, its value in agriculture remains largely unknown. This oversight results in agriculture water value being seldom integrated into water pricing, thereby restricting the information available for water allocation decisions. In this study, we estimated irrigation water value over the last 30 years on the north slope of the Tianshan Mountains, where agriculture is largely dependent on irrigation water supply. Using a data-parsimonious biophysical framework with a function of crop growth and water-demanding dynamics, we estimate the additional net economic benefit of irrigated agriculture relative to rainfed conditions for three major crops at the county level. Our results reveal that mean irrigation water values were 0.27, 0.32, and 0.16 USD m^–3 for cotton, maize, and wheat, respectively, which were 2.0 − 3.2 times higher than global estimates. The value of irrigation water significantly increased over time, primarily driven by rising crop prices and improved water use efficiency. Our findings indicate that farmers in arid regions with water limitations may favor crops with high irrigation water use efficiency. Wheat is suggested to be spatially reallocated in light of the economic benefit, given its relatively low output price and water use efficiency. Irrigation water value was more sensitive to precipitation than air temperature by lowering crop prices and narrowing the gap between rain-fed and irrigated yields. The inclusion of irrigation water value in planning could lead to more efficient use of water resources and support decisions regarding irrigation investments, water use rights, and, ultimately, food sustainability.

水是农业生产不可缺少的资源。然而，它在农业上的价值在很大程度上仍然未知。这种监督导致农业用水价值很少被纳入水价，从而限制了可用于水分配决策的信息。在本研究中，我们估算了天山北坡近30年的灌溉用水量，这是一个农业主要依赖灌溉供水的地区。利用数据简洁的生物物理框架，结合作物生长和需水动态的函数，我们估算了县域三种主要作物的灌溉农业相对于雨养条件的额外净经济效益。研究结果显示，中国棉花、玉米和小麦的平均灌溉水量分别为0.27、0.32和0.16美元/立方米，是全球估算值的2.0 ~ 3.2倍。随着时间的推移，灌溉用水的价值显著增加，这主要是由于作物价格上涨和用水效率提高所致。研究结果表明，干旱缺水地区的农民可能更青睐灌溉用水效率高的作物。小麦产量价格相对较低，水分利用效率较低，建议从经济效益出发进行空间配置。灌溉水值对降水比气温更敏感，降低了作物价格，缩小了雨养和灌溉产量之间的差距。将灌溉用水价值纳入规划可导致更有效地利用水资源，并支持有关灌溉投资、水资源使用权以及最终粮食可持续性的决策。

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引用次数: 0

Ecological restoration priority on the Qinghai‒Xizang Plateau based on the nature’s contributions to people under SDGs-SSPs scenarios 基于sdgs - ssp情景的青藏高原生态恢复优先度

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-06-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100325

Hua Liu , Shiliang Liu , Fangfang Wang , Yifei Zhao , Yuhong Dong , Lam-Son Phan Tran

Ecological restoration is considered an important way to mitigate ecosystem degradation and improve regional nature’s contributions to people (NCPs). Ecological planning is a prerequisite for ecological restoration and the prevention of future ecological risks. However, few studies have focused on integrating ecological plans within the framework of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). In this study, taking the Qinghai‒Xizang Plateau (QXP) as a case, we assessed ecological restoration priorities based on NCPs under various SDGs and SSP scenarios. Specifically, the land use demand was predicted using system dynamics (SD) and cellular automata (CA) models between 2030 and 2060 under SDG-SSP scenarios. In addition, habitat maintenance (NCP1), climate regulation (NCP4), and water quantity regulation (NCP6) were assessed based on the predicted land use. Finally, priority areas for ecological restoration were identified using a zonation model. The results indicated that the grassland, forest, and cultivated areas will increase in the SDGs and SSPs scenarios, respectively. The high-value NCP areas are mainly located in the southeast part of the QXP, accounting for 45.16 % of the study area. In addition, the ecological restoration area involves grassland, cultivated and bare land. In the single-objective scenario, NCP1, NCP4, and NCP6 can be improved by 30.29 %, 28.75 % and 25.63 %, respectively, through the restoration of 15.33 % of the priority areas identified in 2015. When shifting to a multi-objective cooperative optimum, NCP1, NCP4 and NCP6 can be improved 35.79 % by restoring 54.96 % of the priority areas. This study provides insight into how SDGs and SSPs can contribute to ecological restoration for mitigating ecosystem degradation under SDG-SSP scenarios.

生态恢复被认为是缓解生态系统退化和提高区域自然对人类贡献的重要途径。生态规划是生态修复和防范未来生态风险的前提。然而，很少有研究将生态规划纳入可持续发展目标（SDGs）和共享社会经济路径（ssp）的框架。本研究以青藏高原为例，在不同的可持续发展目标和SSP情景下，基于ncp评估了生态恢复优先级。具体而言，在SDG-SSP情景下，利用系统动力学（SD）和元胞自动机（CA）模型预测了2030 - 2060年的土地利用需求。此外，基于土地利用预测对生境维持（NCP1）、气候调节（NCP4）和水量调节（NCP6）进行了评价。最后，利用分区模型确定了生态恢复的优先区域。结果表明：在sdg和ssp情景下，草地、森林和耕地面积将分别增加；NCP高值区主要位于QXP的东南部，占研究区面积的45.16%。此外，生态恢复区域包括草地、耕地和裸地。在单目标情景下，通过恢复2015年确定的15.33%的优先区域，NCP1、NCP4和NCP6可以分别提高30.29%、28.75%和25.63%。当切换到多目标合作最优时，NCP1、NCP4和NCP6通过恢复54.96%的优先区域，提高了35.79%。本研究揭示了可持续发展目标和可持续发展战略在可持续发展目标和可持续发展战略情景下如何促进生态恢复，缓解生态系统退化。

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引用次数: 0

A 36-year geospatial analysis of urbanization dynamics and surface urban heat island effect: Case study of the Bangkok Metropolitan Region 36年城市化动态与地表城市热岛效应的地理空间分析——以曼谷都市圈为例

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-06-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100322

Nattapong Puttanapong , Nithima Nuengjumnong , JoJinda SaeJung , Sitthisak Moukomla

This study examines the impact of urbanization on the Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) effect in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR) over a 36-year period, utilizing advanced machine learning techniques to assess changes in land use and land cover (LULC). The research addresses three key questions: (1) How have changes in LULC influenced the dynamics of the urban heat island (UHI) effect in the BMR? (2) What roles do green and blue infrastructure play in mitigating urban heat? (3) How effectively can machine learning models classify LULC changes and provide insights to support sustainable urban planning? The findings reveal a strong correlation between urban growth and increased land surface temperatures (LST), with parks and water bodies exhibiting lower LSTs, emphasizing the importance of green and blue infrastructure in mitigating urban heat. The SUHI effect, initially measured at 3 °C from 1988 to 1991, peaked at 4.8 °C between 2012 and 2019 before slightly declining to 4.1 °C in recent years due to urban greening initiatives. However, ongoing urban development continues to diminish green spaces and water bodies, underscoring the urgent need for sustainable urban planning. Economic factors, including the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis and land tax laws introduced in 2019, influenced land use patterns, further exacerbating the SUHI effect. The research highlights the necessity of integrated urban management and sustainable land use policies to enhance climate resilience in rapidly urbanizing regions like the BMR.

本研究利用先进的机器学习技术来评估土地利用和土地覆盖（LULC）的变化，研究了36年来城市化对曼谷都会区（BMR）地表城市热岛（SUHI）效应的影响。本文主要研究了三个关键问题：(1)城市热岛变化对城市热岛效应的影响机制；(2)绿色和蓝色基础设施在缓解城市热量方面发挥了什么作用？(3)机器学习模型如何有效地分类LULC变化并提供见解以支持可持续城市规划？研究结果表明，城市增长与地表温度升高之间存在很强的相关性，公园和水体地表温度较低，强调了绿色和蓝色基础设施在缓解城市热量方面的重要性。SUHI效应最初在1988年至1991年期间测量为3°C，在2012年至2019年期间达到4.8°C的峰值，然后由于城市绿化举措，近年来略有下降至4.1°C。然而，持续的城市发展不断减少绿色空间和水体，强调了可持续城市规划的迫切需要。1997年亚洲金融危机和2019年出台的土地税法等经济因素影响了土地利用模式，进一步加剧了SUHI效应。该研究强调了综合城市管理和可持续土地利用政策的必要性，以增强BMR等快速城市化地区的气候适应能力。

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引用次数: 0

Geographical linkage and trade disruption within global photovoltaic supply chains 全球光伏供应链中的地理联系和贸易中断

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-06-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100323

Weilong Li , Meng Zhang , Mengyao Han

Photovoltaics play an essential role in supporting the unprecedented growth of renewable energy transition as well as facing a series of trade risks due to complex international dynamics and intermittent trade disruptions. By combining complex network modeling and shock propagation analysis, the spatial-temporal evolution of photovoltaic supply chains worldwide was depicted, and the potential trade risks under different scenarios were elucidated in this study. The results show that the trade patterns of photovoltaic supply chains have evolved significantly, particularly characterized by the rise of China, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Thailand. The complexity of photovoltaic supply chains increases significantly with the addition of more nodes and edges in the networks. The vulnerability of critical photovoltaic supply chains tends to intensify with the increasing concentration of global supply chains in a geographic sense. The interruption of trade ties between China and Vietnam may lead to the most drastic impact on photovoltaic supply chains, followed by trade disruptions between Southeast Asia and North America. By unveiling the spatial-temporal network evolution and potential trade disruption of global photovoltaic supply chains, it is practical to propose rational and feasible strategies that consider the geographical diversification and international cooperation of photovoltaic supply chains worldwide.

光伏发电在支持可再生能源转型的空前增长方面发挥着至关重要的作用，同时也面临着由于复杂的国际动态和间歇性贸易中断而带来的一系列贸易风险。通过复杂网络建模和冲击传播分析相结合，刻画了全球光伏供应链的时空演化，并对不同情景下的潜在贸易风险进行了分析。结果表明，光伏供应链的贸易模式发生了显著变化，特别是以中国、马来西亚、越南和泰国的崛起为特征。随着网络中节点和边缘的增加，光伏供应链的复杂性显著增加。在地理意义上，随着全球供应链集中度的提高，关键光伏供应链的脆弱性有加剧的趋势。中国和越南之间的贸易关系中断可能会对光伏供应链造成最严重的影响，其次是东南亚和北美之间的贸易中断。通过揭示全球光伏供应链的时空网络演变和潜在的贸易中断，提出考虑全球光伏供应链地域多元化和国际合作的合理可行的策略具有现实意义。

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引用次数: 0

Research framework for integrated geography: Composite driving–system evolution–coupling mechanism–synergistic regulation 综合地理学研究框架：复合驱动-系统演化-耦合机制-协同调节

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100321

Wenwu Zhao , Zizhao Ni , Caichun Yin , Yanxu Liu , Paulo Pereira

Amid ongoing global environmental change and the critical pursuit of sustainable development, human–environment systems are exhibiting increasingly complex dynamic evolutions and spatial relationships, underscoring an urgent need for innovative research frameworks. Integrated geography synthesizes physical geography, human geography, and geographic information science, providing key frameworks for understanding complex human–environment systems. This editorial proposes an emerging research framework for integrated geography—“Composite driving–System evolution–Coupling mechanism–Synergistic regulation (CSCS)”—based on key issues such as climate change, biodiversity loss, resource scarcity, and social–ecological interactions, which have been highlighted in both recent critical literature on human–environment systems and UN assessment reports. The framework starts with diverse composite driving forces, extends to the evolution of human–environment system structures, processes, and functions that these drivers induce, explores couplings within human–environment systems, and calls for regulation aimed at sustainable development in synergies. Major research frontiers include understanding the cascading “evolution–coupling” effects of shocks; measuring system resilience, thresholds, and safe and just operating space boundaries; clarifying linkage mechanisms across scales; and achieving synergistic outcomes for multi-objective sustainability. This framework will help promote the interdisciplinary integration and development of integrated geography, and provide geographical solutions for the global sustainable development agenda.

在持续的全球环境变化和对可持续发展的迫切追求中，人类-环境系统呈现出日益复杂的动态演变和空间关系，迫切需要创新的研究框架。综合地理学综合了自然地理学、人文地理学和地理信息科学，为理解复杂的人-环境系统提供了关键框架。本文基于气候变化、生物多样性丧失、资源稀缺、社会生态相互作用等近年来人类环境系统的重要文献和联合国评估报告所强调的关键问题，提出了一个新兴的综合地理学研究框架——“复合驱动-系统进化-耦合机制-协同调节（CSCS）”。该框架从多种复合驱动力出发，延伸到这些驱动力所引发的人-环境系统结构、过程和功能的演变，探索人-环境系统内部的耦合，并呼吁在协同作用中进行旨在可持续发展的监管。主要的研究前沿包括理解冲击的级联“进化耦合”效应；测量系统弹性、阈值和安全、公正的操作空间边界；明确跨尺度联动机制；实现多目标可持续性的协同效应。这一框架将有助于促进综合地理学的跨学科整合和发展，为全球可持续发展议程提供地理解决方案。

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引用次数: 0

Global aging exacerbates heat exposure risk across diverse socioeconomic pathways 全球老龄化加剧了不同社会经济途径的热暴露风险

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-05-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100318

Xiao Chen , Song Leng , Zhaowu Yu , Ranhao Sun

Elderly individuals disproportionately face heat exposure risk compared to other demographic groups, with projected amplification in the future. The vast disparities between Global North and South countries necessitate a comprehensive understanding of the underlying factors influencing future heat exposure vulnerabilities. Here, we use factor decomposition method to quantify the contribution of climate change, population, and aging to heat exposure risk under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585) from 2000 to 2100 at 20-year intervals. Results demonstrate a projected global escalation in heat exposure risk by 16 and 76 times under SSP126 and SSP585, respectively, with the North generally suffering lower risk than the South. Climate change emerges as a pivotal driver of future heat exposure risk in the North while aging notably influences the South. Despite climate change is projected to reduce heat exposure risk by up to 10 % in the North under SSP1-2.6 by the end of the 21st century, aging remains a critical risk factor.

与其他人口群体相比，老年人面临的热暴露风险不成比例，预计未来会扩大。全球北方和南方国家之间的巨大差异需要全面了解影响未来热暴露脆弱性的潜在因素。本文采用因子分解方法，以20年为间隔，量化了2000 ~ 2100年4条共享社会经济路径（SSP）（SSP126、SSP245、SSP370、SSP585）下气候变化、人口和老龄化对热暴露风险的贡献。结果表明，在SSP126和SSP585下，预计全球热暴露风险分别增加16倍和76倍，北方的风险普遍低于南方。气候变化成为北方未来热暴露风险的关键驱动因素，而老龄化对南方的影响尤为明显。尽管根据SSP1-2.6，预计到21世纪末，气候变化将使北方地区的热暴露风险降低10%，但老龄化仍然是一个关键的风险因素。

引用次数: 0

Vegetation restoration reduces landscape ecological risk in the Loess Plateau 植被恢复降低了黄土高原景观生态风险

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-05-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100320

Hu Yu , Xinyue Hu , Ling Yao

Vegetation restoration (VR) is critical for enhancing the resilience of fragile ecosystems, yet its impact on landscape ecological risk (LER) remains uncertain. The VR project on the Loess Plateau in Shaanxi Province (LPSX) was taken as a case study to address ecological and environmental challenges, including soil erosion and land degradation. This study used multi-source data, including land cover, fractional vegetation cover, and nighttime light. It employed landscape pattern analysis, spatio-temporal correlation analysis, and causality analysis to assess the impacts. This study found a generally positive relationship between VR and the mitigation of LER in LPSX, though spatial and temporal variations exist from 2000 to 2020. Localized VR significantly influenced 17.66 % to 27.03 % of the study area. Positive effects were mainly observed in sandy and gully-hilly regions, showing an upward fluctuating trend that peaked at 21.91 % in 2010. After 2010, negative effects in the Fen-Wei Plain, Qinling Mountains, and Liupan Mountains outweighed the positive effects and continued to expand. Urbanization had a broader impact on LER distribution compared to VR. The findings indicate that future VR projects should focus on the spatial pattern of restoration and its associated eco-social effects to ensure sustainable development.

植被恢复是增强脆弱生态系统恢复力的关键，但其对景观生态风险的影响尚不确定。以陕西省黄土高原VR项目（LPSX）为例，研究如何应对包括土壤侵蚀和土地退化在内的生态环境挑战。这项研究使用了多源数据，包括土地覆盖、植被覆盖度和夜间灯光。采用景观格局分析、时空相关分析、因果分析等方法对影响进行评价。本研究发现，尽管在2000 - 2020年期间存在时空变化，但LPSX地区的VR与LER缓解之间总体上存在正相关关系。局部VR显著影响了17.66% ~ 27.03%的研究区域。积极影响主要出现在沙质和沟壑区，呈上升波动趋势，2010年达到21.91%的峰值。2010年以后，汾渭平原、秦岭和六盘山的负面效应大于正面效应，且持续扩大。与VR相比，城市化对LER分布的影响更大。研究结果表明，未来的虚拟现实项目应关注恢复的空间格局及其相关的生态社会效应，以确保可持续发展。

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引用次数: 0

Daily spatial temperature range: Spatiotemporal pattern and climate change response 日空间温度变化：时空格局与气候变化响应

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-05-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100319

Fayong Liu , Xinyu Zou , Yuanyuan Huang

Due to its impact on cereal yields, vegetation growth, animal wellbeing, and human health, considerable attention has been paid to diurnal temperature range, focusing on the temporal dimension of surface air temperature. However, the characteristics of spatial temperature range and its response to climate change remain unclear, despite its importance to various natural and societal activities. Here, we proposed a daily spatial temperature range (DSTR, difference between spatial maximum and minimum temperature, STmax and STmin) indicator to measure the maximum spatial temperature range within a given region over a day. We analyzed the spatiotemporal pattern of DSTR and its trend under climate change at four scales (global, hemispheric, national, and provincial), with the following main results: (1) DSTR was scale dependent, provincial pattern of which were mainly related to sensible and latent heat fluxes. (2) The key regions affecting DSTR and temporal distribution at different scales were mapped out. (3) Under climate change, DSTR significantly decreased globally, hemispherically, and in several Chinese provinces due to the greater warming of STmin than STmax. The influence of latent heat flux and solar shortwave radiation was larger at global/hemispheric scales, while the albedo was a more critical driver at provincial scale. For the first time, we proposed the DSTR indicator and emphasized the importance of exploring spatial temperature heterogeneity. This spatial information is important to optimize relevant societal activities, and the response of DSTR to climate change has further led to the consideration of the relationship between DSTR and extreme events, biodiversity, etc.

由于其对谷物产量、植被生长、动物福利和人类健康的影响，人们对日温度范围的研究受到了相当大的关注，重点关注地表气温的时间维度。然而，尽管空间温度变化对各种自然和社会活动具有重要意义，但其特征及其对气候变化的响应尚不清楚。在此，我们提出了一个日空间温度范围（DSTR，空间最高和最低温度之差，STmax和STmin）指标来衡量给定区域一天内的最大空间温度范围。在全球、半球、国家和省际4个尺度上分析了气候变化背景下的DSTR时空格局及其变化趋势，结果表明：(1)DSTR具有尺度依赖性，省际格局主要与感热通量和潜热通量有关。(2)绘制了不同尺度下影响DSTR的关键区域和时间分布。(3)在气候变化背景下，全球、半球和中国部分省份的DSTR显著减少，主要原因是暖化程度大于暖化程度。潜热通量和太阳短波辐射在全球/半球尺度上的影响更大，而反照率在省尺度上的影响更大。本文首次提出了DSTR指标，并强调了探索空间温度异质性的重要性。这些空间信息对于优化相关社会活动具有重要意义，DSTR对气候变化的响应进一步引发了对DSTR与极端事件、生物多样性等之间关系的考虑。

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引用次数: 0

Landscape sustainability science and the Sustainable Development Goals 景观可持续性科学与可持续发展目标

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-05-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100309

Jianguo (Jingle) Wu , Julius Addai , Macharia Consolata , Zening Gao , Erica Martin , Emily Sezate Yasutake , Yucang Wang

Achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) requires place-based solutions that reconcile global aspirations with local realities. Landscapes and regions represent a pivotal scale domain—large enough to capture cross-boundary ecological and socioeconomic processes, yet sufficiently grounded to enable context-sensitive understanding and governance. Landscape sustainability science offers a robust framework for bridging the global-local divide in SDG implementation. Rooted in the long-standing convergence between ecology and geography—tracing back to Humboldt’s unity of nature—landscape sustainability science advances a spatially explicit, systems-oriented approach guided by the principles of strong sustainability. Here we present the landscape sustainability science framework, structured around the core triad of landscape pattern, ecosystem services, and human wellbeing, and operationalized through dual feedback loops and the analysis–adaptation–assessment cycle. Our assessment shows that landscape sustainability science contributes directly to eight SDGs and indirectly to six others, offering actionable strategies for climate resilience, sustainable land management, and inclusive landscape governance. By helping to spatialize, localize, and operationalize global sustainability targets, landscape sustainability science provides a pragmatic pathway to advance the SDGs in diverse socioecological contexts. If global sustainability is to be achieved, we must think and act like a landscape.

实现可持续发展目标（sdg）需要基于地方的解决方案，以协调全球愿望和地方现实。景观和区域代表了一个关键的尺度域——大到足以捕捉跨界的生态和社会经济过程，但又有足够的基础来实现上下文敏感的理解和治理。景观可持续性科学为弥合可持续发展目标实施过程中全球和地方之间的鸿沟提供了一个强有力的框架。植根于生态学和地理学之间长期的融合——追溯到洪堡的自然统一性——景观可持续性科学在强可持续性原则的指导下，提出了一种空间明确的、以系统为导向的方法。在这里，我们提出了景观可持续性科学框架，该框架围绕景观格局、生态系统服务和人类福祉这三个核心要素构建，并通过双反馈循环和分析-适应-评估循环来运作。我们的评估表明，景观可持续性科学直接促进了8项可持续发展目标，间接促进了另外6项可持续发展目标，为气候适应能力、可持续土地管理和包容性景观治理提供了可操作的战略。景观可持续性科学有助于实现全球可持续发展目标的空间化、本地化和可操作性，为在不同社会生态背景下推进可持续发展目标提供了一条务实的途径。如果要实现全球可持续发展，我们必须像景观一样思考和行动。

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引用次数: 0

The nexus between poverty reduction and carbon emissions: Insights from Hubei, China during the Targeted Poverty Alleviation Period 减贫与碳排放的关系：精准扶贫时期湖北的启示

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-05-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100308

Mengxiao Liu , Yong Ge

Wiping out poverty while controlling carbon emissions is a major challenge of our time. China eradicated extreme poverty in 2020 through the targeted poverty alleviation (TPA) strategy, providing a unique case to examine the poverty-carbon nexus at the subnational level. This paper investigates the nexus between county-level poverty reduction and carbon emissions in Hubei province during the TPA period. Our findings support the win-win hypothesis, indicating that poverty reduction and emissions control can be achieved simultaneously. CO₂ sequestration through vegetation emerged as a key factor benefiting both objectives, with a 1 % increase reducing poverty by 0.42 % and lowering carbon emissions by 0.19 %. Economic growth contributed to poverty alleviation but increased emissions: a 1 % rise in GDP reduced poverty by 0.44 % while raising emissions by 0.70 %. Conversely, a 1 % increase in electricity consumption raised poverty by 0.46 % and lowered emissions by 0.12 %. Agricultural development showed a 1 % increase correlated with 0.52 % higher poverty and 0.17 % higher emissions. “Carbon Sink+” trading mechanisms facilitated ecological poverty alleviation in impoverished areas. Panel causality analysis confirms a bidirectional relationship between poverty reduction and carbon emissions. These findings highlight the potential for integrated strategies that advance both poverty alleviation and emissions reduction while considering the complex socioeconomic dynamics necessary to achieve sustainable development goals.

在控制碳排放的同时消除贫困是我们这个时代的一项重大挑战。中国通过精准扶贫（TPA）战略在2020年消除了极端贫困，为研究地方层面的贫困-碳关系提供了一个独特的案例。本文研究了TPA时期湖北省县域扶贫与碳排放的关系。我们的研究结果支持双赢假说，表明减少贫困和控制排放可以同时实现。通过植被进行的CO₂固存是有利于这两个目标的关键因素，增加1%可以减少0.42%的贫困，降低0.19%的碳排放。经济增长有助于减轻贫困，但增加了排放：GDP每增长1%，贫困人口减少0.44%，而排放量增加0.70%。相反，用电量每增加1%，贫困人口就会增加0.46%，排放量则会减少0.12%。农业发展增长1%，贫困增加0.52%，排放增加0.17%。“碳汇+”交易机制助力贫困地区生态扶贫。面板因果分析证实了减贫与碳排放之间的双向关系。这些发现突出表明，在考虑实现可持续发展目标所必需的复杂社会经济动态的同时，有可能制定既促进减贫又促进减排的综合战略。

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