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Multivariate Location-Scale Models for Meta-Analysis. meta分析的多变量位置尺度模型。
IF 3.5 3区 心理学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2026-03-26 DOI: 10.1080/00273171.2026.2643868
Katrin Jansen, Steffen Nestler

Often, primary studies that are pooled in a meta-analysis provide information on several outcomes of interest. Multivariate meta-analysis allows to analyze these outcomes simultaneously and model their relationship, and in addition can be more efficient than separate, univariate meta-analyses. However, standard multivariate meta-analysis models typically assume that the between-study variances and correlations are constant across studies. While it is possible to relax this assumption of constant heterogeneity by using location-scale models in univariate meta-analysis, extensions to the multivariate case have not yet been proposed. Here, we fill this gap by describing a location-scale model for the multivariate setting where both the between-study variances of the different outcomes and the correlations between them can depend on covariates. We examine its performance in a simulation study, where we compare univariate and bivariate location-scale models and different estimation methods. In addition, we show how to apply this model to data from a meta-analysis on the effects of motivational reading instruction on reading achievement and motivation. We discuss the implications of our findings for further research on meta-analysis of multiple outcomes and provide recommendations for the use of multivariate location-scale meta-analysis in applications.

通常,汇集在荟萃分析中的初步研究提供了几个感兴趣的结果的信息。多变量荟萃分析可以同时分析这些结果并建立它们之间的关系模型,而且比单独的单变量荟萃分析更有效。然而,标准的多变量荟萃分析模型通常假设研究之间的方差和相关性在研究中是恒定的。虽然可以通过在单变量元分析中使用位置尺度模型来放松这种恒定异质性的假设,但尚未提出对多变量情况的扩展。在这里,我们通过描述多变量设置的位置尺度模型来填补这一空白,其中不同结果的研究间方差和它们之间的相关性都可以依赖于协变量。我们在模拟研究中检验了它的性能,其中我们比较了单变量和双变量位置尺度模型以及不同的估计方法。此外,我们展示了如何将该模型应用于一项关于动机性阅读指导对阅读成绩和动机影响的元分析数据。我们讨论了我们的发现对多结果元分析的进一步研究的意义,并为在应用中使用多变量位置尺度元分析提供了建议。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluating the Performance of R-Squared Measures in Multilevel Models. 评价多层模型中r平方度量的性能。
IF 3.5 3区 心理学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2026-03-18 DOI: 10.1080/00273171.2026.2634294
Diego Iglesias, Miguel A Sorrel, Ricardo Olmos

Multilevel Models (MLMs) have become a valuable tool in the behavioral and social sciences, providing a framework for analyzing clustered data structures commonly encountered in these fields. Unlike single-level regression, R2 measures in MLMs become more intricate due to the need to account for sources of variance at different levels. Recently, Rights and Sterba (2019) introduced an integrative framework of MLM R2 measures, providing a unifying approach to interpreting MLM R2 measures in relation to specific substantive questions. While this framework represents a valuable resource for applied research, the R2 measures have been defined in the population, and their performance across various conditions reflecting applied MLM practices remains unexplored. The present study evaluates the performance of the different MLM R2 measures as estimators of their population values through Monte Carlo simulations. Among other factors, we examined how the number of level-1 and level-2 predictors, cross-level interactions, and random slopes affect the accuracy of the corresponding MLM R2 measures. Results indicate that as the number of level-2 predictors increases, a greater number of clusters is required to ensure accurate estimates. The greater the number of level-1 predictors, cross-level interactions, and random slopes, increasing either the number of clusters or the number of observations per cluster leads to more accurate estimates.

多层模型(MLMs)已经成为行为科学和社会科学中一个有价值的工具,为分析这些领域中经常遇到的聚类数据结构提供了一个框架。与单水平回归不同,传销中的R2测量由于需要考虑不同水平的方差来源而变得更加复杂。最近,Rights and Sterba(2019)引入了传销R2措施的综合框架,为解释与具体实质性问题相关的传销R2措施提供了统一的方法。虽然该框架代表了应用研究的宝贵资源,但R2指标已在人群中定义,其在各种条件下反映应用传销实践的表现仍未得到探索。本研究通过蒙特卡罗模拟评估了不同传销R2测量作为其人口值估计器的性能。在其他因素中,我们研究了一级和二级预测因子的数量、跨水平相互作用和随机斜率如何影响相应MLM R2测量的准确性。结果表明,随着二级预测因子数量的增加,需要更多的聚类来确保准确的估计。一级预测因子、跨层相互作用和随机斜率的数量越多,增加集群的数量或每个集群的观察数量会导致更准确的估计。
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引用次数: 0
A Hierarchical Ordinal Regression Model for Treatment-Reversal Designs with Application to Non-Overlap Effect Sizes. 应用于非重叠效应大小的治疗逆转设计的层次有序回归模型。
IF 3.5 3区 心理学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2026-03-16 DOI: 10.1080/00273171.2026.2619211
James Ohisei Uanhoro, Megan Rojo

We present a hierarchical ordinal model for analyzing single-case designs (SCDs), with a focus on treatment-reversal designs. SCDs involve systematic measurement of outcomes for individual cases across different conditions or phases, aiming to establish causal relations between interventions and behavioral changes. While visual analysis is a common approach in SCDs, the field is increasingly adopting quantitative effect size metrics, such as non-overlap indices, to supplement visual examination. However, statistical theory supporting the use of these indices remains underdeveloped. To address this gap, we developed a Bayesian hierarchical ordinal model that enables the estimation of case-specific non-overlap indices. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate that these indices are more accurate than those obtained via standard approaches. Moreover, the model can generate parametric indices with greater accuracy than standard methods. To facilitate the adoption of this model, we provide an R package (ssrhom) for model estimation. This contribution aims to enhance the analysis and interpretation of SCDs, ultimately advancing our understanding of the efficacy of interventions and promoting evidence-based decision-making.

我们提出了一个层次有序模型来分析单例设计(SCDs),重点是治疗逆转设计。scd涉及对不同情况或阶段的个体病例的结果进行系统测量,旨在建立干预措施与行为改变之间的因果关系。虽然视觉分析是scd的常用方法,但该领域越来越多地采用定量效应大小指标,如非重叠指数,以补充视觉检查。然而,支持使用这些指数的统计理论仍然不发达。为了解决这一差距,我们开发了一个贝叶斯层次有序模型,可以估计特定病例的非重叠指数。通过仿真研究,我们证明了这些指标比通过标准方法获得的指标更准确。与标准方法相比,该模型能以更高的精度生成参数指标。为了便于采用该模型,我们提供了一个R包(ssrrom)用于模型估计。这一贡献旨在加强对scd的分析和解释,最终提高我们对干预措施有效性的理解,并促进循证决策。
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引用次数: 0
To Disaggregate or Not to Disaggregate: A Focus on Covariates in Multilevel Models. 分解还是不分解:对多层模型中协变量的关注。
IF 3.5 3区 心理学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2026-03-09 DOI: 10.1080/00273171.2026.2636166
Remus Mitchell, Craig K Enders, Yi Feng

It is routinely recommended that level-1 variables in multilevel models be disaggregated when they are of substantive importance. Yet, the consensus on the disaggregation of level-1 covariates is more mixed. Disaggregation clarifies interpretation and reduces bias in the covariate, though some methodologists argue that it is unnecessary when the covariate itself is not of substantive interest. Our study builds off recent work to explore the tradeoffs between bias and precision when choosing to disaggregate level-1 covariates when the primary interest lies in a level-2 predictor. Using a Monte Carlo simulation, we examine how factors such as the intraclass correlation, the magnitude of the contextual effect, the within- and between-level effect sizes, the correlation among level-2 effects, sample size at both levels, and the method of disaggregation (manifest versus latent) influence bias, precision, and power of a level-2 focal estimate. Our findings suggest that although disaggregation generally improves interpretability and reduces bias, there are conditions where a non-disaggregated approach may yield greater precision. These insights inform best practices for handling lower-level covariates in multilevel models.It is routinely recommended that level-1 variables in multilevel models be disaggregated when they are of substantive importance. Yet, the consensus on the disaggregation of level-1 covariates is more mixed. Disaggregation clarifies interpretation and reduces bias in the covariate, though some methodologists argue that it is unnecessary when the covariate itself is not of substantive interest. Our study builds off the work of Rights et al. to explore the tradeoffs between bias and precision when choosing to disaggregate level-1 covariates when the primary interest lies in a level-2 predictor. Using a Monte Carlo simulation, we examine how factors such as the intraclass correlation, the magnitude of the contextual effect, the within- and between-level effect sizes, the correlation among level-2 effects, sample size at both levels, and the method of disaggregation (manifest versus latent) influence bias, precision, and power of a level-2 focal estimate. Our findings suggest that although disaggregation generally improves interpretability and reduces bias, there are conditions where a non-disaggregated approach may yield greater precision. These insights inform best practices for handling lower-level covariates in multilevel models.

通常建议,当多层模型中的第一级变量具有实质性重要性时,将其分解。然而,关于一级协变量的分解的共识更加复杂。分解澄清了解释并减少了协变量的偏差,尽管一些方法学家认为,当协变量本身没有实质性的兴趣时,它是不必要的。我们的研究建立在最近的工作基础上,探讨了当主要兴趣在于二级预测器时选择分解一级协变量时,偏差和精度之间的权衡。使用蒙特卡罗模拟,我们研究了诸如类内相关性、上下文效应的大小、水平内和水平间效应大小、2级效应之间的相关性、两个水平的样本量以及分解方法(明显与潜在)等因素如何影响2级焦点估计的偏差、精度和功率。我们的研究结果表明,尽管分解通常可以提高可解释性并减少偏差,但在某些情况下,非分解方法可能产生更高的精度。这些见解为在多层模型中处理低级协变量提供了最佳实践。通常建议,当多层模型中的第一级变量具有实质性重要性时,将其分解。然而,关于一级协变量的分解的共识更加复杂。分解澄清了解释并减少了协变量的偏差,尽管一些方法学家认为,当协变量本身没有实质性的兴趣时,它是不必要的。我们的研究建立在right等人的工作基础上,探讨了当主要兴趣在于二级预测器时,选择分解一级协变量时,偏差和精度之间的权衡。使用蒙特卡罗模拟,我们研究了诸如类内相关性、上下文效应的大小、水平内和水平间效应大小、2级效应之间的相关性、两个水平的样本量以及分解方法(明显与潜在)等因素如何影响2级焦点估计的偏差、精度和功率。我们的研究结果表明,尽管分解通常可以提高可解释性并减少偏差,但在某些情况下,非分解方法可能产生更高的精度。这些见解为在多层模型中处理低级协变量提供了最佳实践。
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引用次数: 0
Treatment Effect Moderation with Small Subgroups: An Incremental Subgroup Analysis Approach. 小亚组治疗效果缓和:一种增量亚组分析方法。
IF 3.5 3区 心理学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2026-03-02 DOI: 10.1080/00273171.2026.2634993
Xiao Liu, J Mark Eddy, Charles R Martinez

Subgroup analysis is an important tool for studying treatment effect moderation. However, when a subgroup has a relatively small proportion (referred to as "focal subgroup"), standard subgroup analysis could encounter practical difficulties (e.g., low estimation precision). In this study, we propose an incremental subgroup analysis approach, which considers how the treatment effect would change as the proportion of focal subgroup gradually increases. The proposed approach provides estimates and confidence intervals for incremental subgroup effects, allowing visualization of the effect moderation trend with a continuous curve along with the corresponding confidence band. For estimation with baseline covariates, we extend a doubly robust method that can incorporate machine learning approaches for relaxing modeling assumptions, while allowing quantification of uncertainty for the effect estimate (e.g., via confidence intervals). Simulations are conducted to evaluate the performance of the estimation method. We illustrate the application of the proposed approach in an empirical example, assessing the moderation in the effect of a preventive intervention based on a relatively small subgroup. We hope that the proposed subgroup analysis approach provides an alternative or complementary method for studying effect moderation by subgroups.

亚组分析是研究治疗效果调节的重要工具。然而,当一个子群的比例相对较小(称为“焦点子群”)时,标准的子群分析可能会遇到实际困难(例如,估计精度低)。在本研究中,我们提出了一种增量亚组分析方法,该方法考虑了随着焦点亚组比例的逐渐增加,治疗效果会发生怎样的变化。所提出的方法提供了增量子群效应的估计和置信区间,允许用连续曲线和相应的置信带可视化效果缓和趋势。对于基线协变量的估计,我们扩展了一种双鲁棒方法,该方法可以结合机器学习方法来放松建模假设,同时允许量化效果估计的不确定性(例如,通过置信区间)。通过仿真来评估该估计方法的性能。我们在一个实证例子中说明了所提出方法的应用,评估了基于相对较小的子群体的预防性干预效果的适度性。我们希望提出的亚组分析方法为研究亚组效应调节提供一种替代或补充方法。
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引用次数: 0
semfindr: An R Package for Identifying Influential Cases in Structural Equation Modeling. 结构方程建模中识别影响案例的R包。
IF 3.5 3区 心理学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2026-03-02 DOI: 10.1080/00273171.2026.2634293
Shu Fai Cheung, Mark H C Lai

Measuring case influence on parameter estimates and model fit measures, which is one type of sensitivity analysis, is important for assessing the robustness of findings in structural equation modeling (SEM). However, it was rarely reported clearly or was conducted inappropriately, mistaking outlier detection for influential cases assessment. Some existing tools have limitations in the models or estimation methods they support, or in the types of influence measures that can be computed. We developed an easy-to-use R package, semfindr, for identifying influential cases in SEM using the leave-one-out (LOO) method. It reduces the computational cost by separating the refitting step from the case influence computation step. It also has various plot functions for effective assessment of case influence in complicated models. Lastly, it supports multiple-group models and the handling of missing data. This manuscript demonstrates how to utilize semfindr for efficient search for influential cases, providing publication-ready results and plots.

测量案例对参数估计和模型拟合度量的影响是一种敏感性分析,对于评估结构方程建模(SEM)结果的稳健性非常重要。然而,报告很少明确或进行不当,将异常值检测误认为有影响的病例评估。一些现有工具在其支持的模型或估计方法或可计算的影响度量类型方面存在局限性。我们开发了一个易于使用的R包,semfindr,用于使用leave-one-out (LOO)方法识别SEM中有影响的案例。该方法将改装步骤与案例影响计算步骤分离,降低了计算成本。它还具有多种绘图功能,可以有效地评估复杂模型中的案例影响。最后,它支持多组模型和缺失数据的处理。这篇手稿演示了如何利用semfindr有效地搜索有影响力的案例,提供出版准备的结果和情节。
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引用次数: 0
Penalized Subgrouping of Heterogeneous Time Series. 异构时间序列的惩罚子分组。
IF 3.5 3区 心理学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2026-02-20 DOI: 10.1080/00273171.2026.2622120
Christopher M Crawford, Jonathan J Park, Sy-Miin Chow, Anja F Ernst, Vladas Pipiras, Zachary F Fisher

Interest in the study and analysis of dynamic processes in the social, behavioral, and health sciences has burgeoned in recent years due to the increased availability of intensive longitudinal data. However, how best to model and account for the persistent heterogeneity characterizing such processes remains an open question. The multi-VAR framework, a recent methodological development built on the vector autoregressive model, accommodates heterogeneous dynamics in multiple-subject time series through structured penalization. In the original multi-VAR proposal, individual-level transition matrices are decomposed into common and unique dynamics, allowing for generalizable and person-specific features. The current project extends this framework to allow additionally for the identification and penalized estimation of subgroup-specific dynamics; that is, patterns of dynamics that are shared across subsets of individuals. The performance of the proposed subgrouping extension is evaluated in the context of both a simulation study and empirical application, and results are compared to alternative methods for subgrouping multiple-subject, multivariate time series.

近年来,由于密集的纵向数据的可用性增加,对社会、行为和健康科学动态过程的研究和分析的兴趣迅速增长。然而,如何最好地建模和解释表征这些过程的持续异质性仍然是一个悬而未决的问题。multi-VAR框架是一种基于向量自回归模型的最新方法发展,通过结构化惩罚来适应多主体时间序列中的异质动态。在最初的多var方案中,个体层面的转移矩阵被分解为共同的和独特的动态,允许泛化和个性化的特征。当前的项目扩展了这个框架,以允许额外地识别和惩罚子组特定动态的估计;也就是说,在个体子集之间共享的动态模式。在模拟研究和实证应用的背景下,对所提出的子分组扩展的性能进行了评估,并将结果与多主题多变量时间序列子分组的替代方法进行了比较。
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引用次数: 0
Calculating and Interpreting Maximal Reliability in Bifactor Models. 双因素模型最大可靠度的计算与解释。
IF 3.5 3区 心理学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1080/00273171.2025.2612035
Sijia Li, Victoria Savalei

Confirmatory bifactor models have been widely applied to understand multidimensional constructs in different areas of psychology research. Maximal reliability captures how well an optimal linear composite (OLC) represents the target latent variable. In this article, we point out that researchers have been using an incorrect generalization of coefficient H, a maximal reliability coefficient developed for one-factor models, with bifactor models. We present two sets of correct equations for maximal reliability: one based on an OLC for the entire scale and one based on a sub-composite consisting only of relevant items (OLSC). We illustrate these equations on a simulated data example and on a real data example, and compare them to other reliability coefficients. In a small population simulation, we find that OLCs and OLSCs are not reliable measures of group factors in models that contain fewer than 100 indicators. In addition, somewhat unexpectedly, we find that OLCs and OLSCs often receive negative weights. Overall, we recommend against using optimal composites or sub-composites as proxies for group factors, due to poor reliability and difficulties of interpretation. However, maximal reliability indices can be reported to evaluate the quality of a bifactor model.

验证性双因素模型被广泛应用于心理学研究的各个领域。最大信度捕获了最优线性复合(OLC)对目标潜在变量的表示程度。在本文中,我们指出,研究人员在双因素模型中使用了对单因素模型的最大可靠度系数H的不正确推广。我们提出了两组正确的最大信度方程:一组基于整个量表的OLC,另一组基于仅由相关项目组成的子复合(OLSC)。我们分别在一个模拟数据和一个实际数据上说明了这些方程,并将它们与其他可靠度系数进行了比较。在小种群模拟中,我们发现在包含少于100个指标的模型中,OLCs和OLSCs不是可靠的群体因素度量。此外,有些出乎意料的是,我们发现olc和olsc经常得到负权重。总的来说,我们不建议使用最优复合材料或亚复合材料作为群体因素的代理,因为可靠性差且难以解释。然而,最大可靠度指标可以用来评价一个双因素模型的质量。
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引用次数: 0
Multiple Imputation of Missing Data in Moderated Factor Analysis. 调节因子分析中缺失数据的多重拟合。
IF 3.5 3区 心理学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1080/00273171.2025.2606868
Joost R van Ginkel, Dylan Molenaar

In moderated factor analysis, the parameters of the traditional common factor model are a function of an external continuous moderator variable. Handling missing values on the observed indicator variables of the common factors is straightforward as the parameters can be estimated using full information maximum likelihood. However, for cases with missing values on the moderator variable the likelihood function cannot be evaluated. Consequently, in practical applications of the moderated factor model, these cases are omitted from the analysis by listwise deletion. As listwise deletion is known to potentially affect the consistency and precision of the results, we propose a moderated factor model based multiple imputation procedure for handling missing values on the moderator variable in the presence of missing values on the indicator variables. We compare this new procedure with listwise deletion and predictive mean matching. The results show that both listwise deletion and predictive mean matching have less power and produce more bias in parameter estimates than multiple imputation under the moderated factor model.

在调节因子分析中,传统的共因子模型的参数是一个外部连续调节变量的函数。处理缺失值的观测指标变量的共同因素是直接的,因为参数可以估计使用全信息最大似然。然而,对于在调节变量上缺少值的情况,无法评估似然函数。因此,在调节因子模型的实际应用中,通过列表删除的方法将这些情况从分析中省略。由于已知列表删除可能会影响结果的一致性和精度,我们提出了一种基于调节因子模型的多重imputation程序,用于在指标变量存在缺失值的情况下处理调节变量的缺失值。我们将这种新方法与列表删除和预测均值匹配进行了比较。结果表明,在调节因子模型下,单列删除和预测均值匹配在参数估计中都比多重插值具有更小的功率和更大的偏差。
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引用次数: 0
Time-Varying Path-Specific Direct and Indirect Effects: A Novel Approach to Examine Dynamic Behavioral Processes with Application to Smoking Cessation. 时变路径特定的直接和间接影响:一种新的方法来研究动态行为过程与戒烟的应用。
IF 3.5 3区 心理学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1080/00273171.2026.2615659
Yajnaseni Chakraborti, Recai M Yucel, Megan E Piper, Jeremy Mennis, Anthony J Alberg, Timothy B Baker, Donna L Coffman

Behavioral processes are often complex, and vary over time, requiring intensive longitudinal data to effectively capture the dynamic elements involved. For example, examining daily socio-behavioral and treatment adherence data collected during a smoking quit attempt, can reveal how, when, and why withdrawal symptoms change, offering insight into critical windows of relapse-risk in the cessation process. However, analytical methods (e.g., time-varying causal mediation methods), that can translate such intensive longitudinal data into time-varying causal effects remain limited, hindering a deeper understanding of these dynamic behavioral processes. We propose a new approach, augmented mediational g-formula with a two-step estimation strategy, to estimate time-varying causal (in)direct effects. Its performance was evaluated via simulation, comparing bias, precision, and alignment with the product-of-coefficients approach. The optimal approach identified by the simulation study was applied to data from the Wisconsin Smokers' Health Study II, for assessing the effect of randomized pharmacological treatment assignment (exposure) on daily smoking cessation outcome(s), mediated via daily treatment adherence, in the presence of a time-varying confounder (daily stress). Daily stress was due to social contextual factors but not affected by the exposure. Within its scope, this study serves as a preliminary framework for studying the causal structure of time-varying bio-behavioral processes.

行为过程通常是复杂的,并且随着时间的推移而变化,需要密集的纵向数据来有效地捕获所涉及的动态元素。例如,检查在戒烟过程中收集的日常社会行为和治疗依从性数据,可以揭示戒断症状变化的方式、时间和原因,从而深入了解戒烟过程中复发风险的关键窗口。然而,能够将这种密集的纵向数据转化为时变因果效应的分析方法(例如时变因果中介方法)仍然有限,阻碍了对这些动态行为过程的更深入理解。我们提出了一种新的方法,用两步估计策略的增广中介g公式来估计时变因果直接效应。通过模拟、比较偏差、精度和与系数乘积方法的对齐来评估其性能。模拟研究确定的最佳方法应用于威斯康星州吸烟者健康研究II的数据,以评估随机药物治疗分配(暴露)对日常戒烟结果的影响,通过日常治疗依从性介导,存在时变混杂因素(日常压力)。日常压力是由社会环境因素造成的,但不受暴露的影响。在其范围内,本研究为研究时变生物行为过程的因果结构提供了初步框架。
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引用次数: 0
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Multivariate Behavioral Research
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