Pub Date : 2024-11-18DOI: 10.1080/00273171.2024.2424514
Alessandro Varacca
In this paper, we propose a Bayesian causal mediation approach to the analysis of experimental data when both the outcome and the mediator are measured through structured questionnaires based on Likert-scaled inquiries. Our estimation strategy builds upon the error-in-variables literature and, specifically, it leverages Item Response Theory to explicitly model the observed surrogate mediator and outcome measures. We employ their elicited latent counterparts in a simple g-computation algorithm, where we exploit the fundamental identifying assumptions of causal mediation analysis to impute all the relevant counterfactuals and estimate the causal parameters of interest. We finally devise a sensitivity analysis procedure to test the robustness of the proposed methods to the restrictive requirement of mediator's conditional ignorability. We demonstrate the functioning of our proposed methodology through an empirical application using survey data from an online experiment on food purchasing intentions and the effect of different labeling regimes.
在本文中,我们提出了一种贝叶斯因果中介方法来分析实验数据,即通过基于李克特量表调查的结构化问卷来测量结果和中介。我们的估算策略建立在变量误差文献的基础上,具体来说,它利用项目反应理论(Item Response Theory)对观察到的中介变量和结果变量进行明确建模。我们在一个简单的 g 计算算法中使用了所激发的潜在对应变量,利用因果中介分析的基本识别假设来估算所有相关的反事实,并估算相关的因果参数。最后,我们设计了一个敏感性分析程序,以检验所提出的方法对中介人条件无知这一限制性要求的稳健性。我们通过一个关于食品购买意向和不同标签制度影响的在线实验调查数据的实证应用,证明了我们提出的方法的功能。
{"title":"Latently Mediating: A Bayesian Take on Causal Mediation Analysis with Structured Survey Data.","authors":"Alessandro Varacca","doi":"10.1080/00273171.2024.2424514","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00273171.2024.2424514","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In this paper, we propose a Bayesian causal mediation approach to the analysis of experimental data when both the outcome and the mediator are measured through structured questionnaires based on Likert-scaled inquiries. Our estimation strategy builds upon the error-in-variables literature and, specifically, it leverages Item Response Theory to explicitly model the observed surrogate mediator and outcome measures. We employ their elicited latent counterparts in a simple g-computation algorithm, where we exploit the fundamental identifying assumptions of causal mediation analysis to impute all the relevant counterfactuals and estimate the causal parameters of interest. We finally devise a sensitivity analysis procedure to test the robustness of the proposed methods to the restrictive requirement of mediator's conditional ignorability. We demonstrate the functioning of our proposed methodology through an empirical application using survey data from an online experiment on food purchasing intentions and the effect of different labeling regimes.</p>","PeriodicalId":53155,"journal":{"name":"Multivariate Behavioral Research","volume":" ","pages":"1-23"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142649633","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01Epub Date: 2023-02-10DOI: 10.1080/00273171.2023.2170963
L Lichtenberg, I Visser, M E J Raijmakers
This study is the first to investigate how 3-year-olds learn simple rules from feedback using the Toddler Card Sorting Task (TCST). To account for intra- and inter- individual differences in the learning process, latent Markov models were fitted to the time series of accuracy responses using maximum likelihood techniques (Visser et al., 2002). In a first, exploratory study (N = 110, 3- to 5-years olds) a considerable group of 3-year olds applied a hypothesis testing learning strategy. A second study confirmed these results with a preregistered study (3-years olds, N = 60). Under supportive learning conditions, a majority of 3-year- olds was capable of hypothesis testing. Furthermore, older children and those with bigger working memory capacities were more likely to use hypothesis testing, even though the latter group perseverated more than younger children or those with smaller working memory capacities. 3-year-olds are more advanced feedback-learners than assumed.
{"title":"Latent Markov Models to Test the Strategy Use of 3-Year-Olds in a Rule-Based Feedback-Learning Task.","authors":"L Lichtenberg, I Visser, M E J Raijmakers","doi":"10.1080/00273171.2023.2170963","DOIUrl":"10.1080/00273171.2023.2170963","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This study is the first to investigate how 3-year-olds learn simple rules from feedback using the Toddler Card Sorting Task (TCST). To account for intra- and inter- individual differences in the learning process, latent Markov models were fitted to the time series of accuracy responses using maximum likelihood techniques (Visser et al., 2002). In a first, exploratory study (N = 110, 3- to 5-years olds) a considerable group of 3-year olds applied a hypothesis testing learning strategy. A second study confirmed these results with a preregistered study (3-years olds, N = 60). Under supportive learning conditions, a majority of 3-year- olds was capable of hypothesis testing. Furthermore, older children and those with bigger working memory capacities were more likely to use hypothesis testing, even though the latter group perseverated more than younger children or those with smaller working memory capacities. 3-year-olds are more advanced feedback-learners than assumed.</p>","PeriodicalId":53155,"journal":{"name":"Multivariate Behavioral Research","volume":" ","pages":"1123-1136"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10675513","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01Epub Date: 2024-08-30DOI: 10.1080/00273171.2024.2394054
Sy-Miin Chow, Ellen L Hamaker, Nilam Ram
This special issue is a collection of papers inspired by Dr. Molenaar's work and innovations - a tribute to his passion for advancing science and his ability to ignite a spark of creativity and innovation in multiple generations of scientists. Following Dr. Molenaar's creative breadth, the papers address a wide variety of topics - sharing of new methodological developments, ideas, and findings in idiographic science, study of intraindividual variation, behavioral genetics, model inference/identification/selection, and more.
{"title":"From Behavioral Genetics to Idiographic Science: Methodological Developments and Applications Inspired by the Work of Peter C. M. Molenaar.","authors":"Sy-Miin Chow, Ellen L Hamaker, Nilam Ram","doi":"10.1080/00273171.2024.2394054","DOIUrl":"10.1080/00273171.2024.2394054","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This special issue is a collection of papers inspired by Dr. Molenaar's work and innovations - a tribute to his passion for advancing science and his ability to ignite a spark of creativity and innovation in multiple generations of scientists. Following Dr. Molenaar's creative breadth, the papers address a wide variety of topics - sharing of new methodological developments, ideas, and findings in idiographic science, study of intraindividual variation, behavioral genetics, model inference/identification/selection, and more.</p>","PeriodicalId":53155,"journal":{"name":"Multivariate Behavioral Research","volume":" ","pages":"1107-1110"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142114706","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01Epub Date: 2023-07-10DOI: 10.1080/00273171.2023.2225172
Siwei Liu, Kathleen M Gates, Emilio Ferrer
With the increased use of time series data in human research, ranging from ecological momentary assessments to data passively obtained, researchers can explore dynamic processes more than ever before. An important question researchers must ask themselves is, do I think all individuals have similar processes? If not, how different, and in what ways? Dr. Peter Molenaar's work set the foundation to answer these questions by providing insight into individual-level analysis for processes that are assumed to differ across individuals in at least some aspects. Currently, such assumptions do not have a clear taxonomy regarding the degree of homogeneity in the patterns of relations among variables and the corresponding parameter values. This paper provides the language with which researchers can discuss assumptions inherent in their analyses. We define strict homogeneity as the assumption that all individuals have an identical pattern of relations as well as parameter values; pattern homogeneity assumes the same pattern of relations but parameter values can differ; weak homogeneity assumes there are some (but not all) generalizable aspects of the process; and no homogeneity explicitly assumes no population-level similarities in dynamic processes across individuals. We demonstrate these assumptions with an empirical data set of daily emotions in couples.
{"title":"Homogeneity Assumptions in the Analysis of Dynamic Processes.","authors":"Siwei Liu, Kathleen M Gates, Emilio Ferrer","doi":"10.1080/00273171.2023.2225172","DOIUrl":"10.1080/00273171.2023.2225172","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>With the increased use of time series data in human research, ranging from ecological momentary assessments to data passively obtained, researchers can explore dynamic processes more than ever before. An important question researchers must ask themselves is, do I think all individuals have similar processes? If not, how different, and in what ways? Dr. Peter Molenaar's work set the foundation to answer these questions by providing insight into individual-level analysis for processes that are assumed to differ across individuals in at least some aspects. Currently, such assumptions do not have a clear taxonomy regarding the degree of homogeneity in the patterns of relations among variables and the corresponding parameter values. This paper provides the language with which researchers can discuss assumptions inherent in their analyses. We define strict homogeneity as the assumption that all individuals have an identical pattern of relations as well as parameter values; pattern homogeneity assumes the same pattern of relations but parameter values can differ; weak homogeneity assumes there are some (but not all) generalizable aspects of the process; and no homogeneity explicitly assumes no population-level similarities in dynamic processes across individuals. We demonstrate these assumptions with an empirical data set of daily emotions in couples.</p>","PeriodicalId":53155,"journal":{"name":"Multivariate Behavioral Research","volume":" ","pages":"1166-1176"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9820682","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01Epub Date: 2023-05-16DOI: 10.1080/00273171.2023.2205390
Michael J Rovine, Paul A McDermott
Inspired by Peter Molenaar's Houdini transformation, we consider the idea of touchstones between different models. Touchstones represent instances where models that appear different on the surface can have equivalent characteristics. Touchstones can appear as identical tests of model parameters. They can exist in the mean structure, in the covariance structure, or in both. In the latter case, the models will generate identical mean and covariance structures and will fit the data equally well. After showing some examples of touchstones and how they result from constraints on a general model, we show how that idea can suggest Molenaar's Houdini transformation. This transformation allows one to take a latent variable model and derive an equivalent model comprised solely of manifest (observed) variables. As equivalent models, the parameters of one can be transformed into the parameters of the other.
{"title":"Touchstones of Equivalence and the Houdini Transformation.","authors":"Michael J Rovine, Paul A McDermott","doi":"10.1080/00273171.2023.2205390","DOIUrl":"10.1080/00273171.2023.2205390","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Inspired by Peter Molenaar's Houdini transformation, we consider the idea of touchstones between different models. Touchstones represent instances where models that appear different on the surface can have equivalent characteristics. Touchstones can appear as identical tests of model parameters. They can exist in the mean structure, in the covariance structure, or in both. In the latter case, the models will generate identical mean and covariance structures and will fit the data equally well. After showing some examples of touchstones and how they result from constraints on a general model, we show how that idea can suggest Molenaar's Houdini transformation. This transformation allows one to take a latent variable model and derive an equivalent model comprised solely of manifest (observed) variables. As equivalent models, the parameters of one can be transformed into the parameters of the other.</p>","PeriodicalId":53155,"journal":{"name":"Multivariate Behavioral Research","volume":" ","pages":"1137-1147"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9840671","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01Epub Date: 2023-10-10DOI: 10.1080/00273171.2023.2261224
Michael D Hunter
Increasingly, behavioral scientists encounter data where several individuals were measured on multiple variables over numerous occasions. Many current methods combine these data, assuming all individuals are randomly equivalent. An extreme alternative assumes no one is randomly equivalent. We propose state space mixture modeling as one possible compromise. State space mixture modeling assumes that unknown groups of people exist who share the same parameters of a state space model, and simultaneously estimates both the state space parameters and group membership. The goal is to find people that are undergoing similar change processes over time. The present work demonstrates state space mixture modeling on a simulated data set, and summarizes the results from a large simulation study. The illustration shows how the analysis is conducted, whereas the simulation provides evidence of its general validity and applicability. In the simulation study, sample size had the greatest influence on parameter estimation and the dimension of the change process had the greatest impact on correctly grouping people together, likely due to the distinctiveness of their patterns of change. State space mixture modeling offers one of the best-performing methods for simultaneously drawing conclusions about individual change processes while also analyzing multiple people.
{"title":"State Space Mixture Modeling: Finding People with Similar Patterns of Change.","authors":"Michael D Hunter","doi":"10.1080/00273171.2023.2261224","DOIUrl":"10.1080/00273171.2023.2261224","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Increasingly, behavioral scientists encounter data where several individuals were measured on multiple variables over numerous occasions. Many current methods combine these data, assuming all individuals are randomly equivalent. An extreme alternative assumes no one is randomly equivalent. We propose state space mixture modeling as one possible compromise. State space mixture modeling assumes that unknown groups of people exist who share the same parameters of a state space model, and simultaneously estimates both the state space parameters and group membership. The goal is to find people that are undergoing similar change processes over time. The present work demonstrates state space mixture modeling on a simulated data set, and summarizes the results from a large simulation study. The illustration shows how the analysis is conducted, whereas the simulation provides evidence of its general validity and applicability. In the simulation study, sample size had the greatest influence on parameter estimation and the dimension of the change process had the greatest impact on correctly grouping people together, likely due to the distinctiveness of their patterns of change. State space mixture modeling offers one of the best-performing methods for simultaneously drawing conclusions about individual change processes while also analyzing multiple people.</p>","PeriodicalId":53155,"journal":{"name":"Multivariate Behavioral Research","volume":" ","pages":"1253-1269"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41184181","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01Epub Date: 2024-07-11DOI: 10.1080/00273171.2024.2336178
Denny Borsboom, Jonas Haslbeck
Psychological science is divided into two distinct methodological traditions. One tradition seeks to understand how people function at the individual level, while the other seeks to understand how people differ from each other. Methodologies that have grown out of these traditions typically rely on different sources of data. While both use statistical models to understand the structure of the data, and these models are often similar, Molenaar (2004) showed that results from one type of analysis rarely transfer to the other, unless unrealistic assumptions hold. This raises the question how we may integrate these approaches. In this paper, we argue that formalized theories can be used to connect intra- and interindividual levels of analysis. This connection is indirect, in the sense that the relationship between theory and data is best understood through the intermediate level of phenomena: robust statistical patterns in empirical data. To illustrate this, we introduce a distinction between intra- and interindividual phenomena, and argue that many psychological theories will have implications for both types of phenomena. Formalization provides us with a methodological tool for investigating what kinds of intra- and interindividual phenomena we should expect to find if the theory under consideration were true.
{"title":"Integrating Intra- and Interindividual Phenomena in Psychological Theories.","authors":"Denny Borsboom, Jonas Haslbeck","doi":"10.1080/00273171.2024.2336178","DOIUrl":"10.1080/00273171.2024.2336178","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Psychological science is divided into two distinct methodological traditions. One tradition seeks to understand how people function at the individual level, while the other seeks to understand how people differ from each other. Methodologies that have grown out of these traditions typically rely on different sources of data. While both use statistical models to understand the structure of the data, and these models are often similar, Molenaar (2004) showed that results from one type of analysis rarely transfer to the other, unless unrealistic assumptions hold. This raises the question how we may integrate these approaches. In this paper, we argue that formalized theories can be used to connect intra- and interindividual levels of analysis. This connection is indirect, in the sense that the relationship between theory and data is best understood through the intermediate level of phenomena: robust statistical patterns in empirical data. To illustrate this, we introduce a distinction between intra- and interindividual phenomena, and argue that many psychological theories will have implications for both types of phenomena. Formalization provides us with a methodological tool for investigating what kinds of intra- and interindividual phenomena we should expect to find if the theory under consideration were true.</p>","PeriodicalId":53155,"journal":{"name":"Multivariate Behavioral Research","volume":" ","pages":"1290-1309"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141581494","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01Epub Date: 2023-07-13DOI: 10.1080/00273171.2023.2229305
Nilam Ram, Nick Haber, Thomas N Robinson, Byron Reeves
Advances in ability to comprehensively record individuals' digital lives and in AI modeling of those data facilitate new possibilities for describing, predicting, and generating a wide variety of behavioral processes. In this paper, we consider these advances from a person-specific perspective, including whether the pervasive concerns about generalizability of results might be productively reframed with respect to transferability of models, and how self-supervision and new deep neural network architectures that facilitate transfer learning can be applied in a person-specific way to the super-intensive longitudinal data arriving in the Human Screenome Project. In developing the possibilities, we suggest Molenaar add a statement to the person-specific Manifesto - "In short, the concerns about generalizability commonly leveled at the person-specific paradigm are unfounded and can be fully and completely replaced with discussion and demonstrations of transferability."
{"title":"Binding the Person-Specific Approach to Modern AI in the Human Screenome Project: Moving past Generalizability to Transferability.","authors":"Nilam Ram, Nick Haber, Thomas N Robinson, Byron Reeves","doi":"10.1080/00273171.2023.2229305","DOIUrl":"10.1080/00273171.2023.2229305","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Advances in ability to comprehensively record individuals' digital lives and in AI modeling of those data facilitate new possibilities for describing, predicting, and generating a wide variety of behavioral processes. In this paper, we consider these advances from a person-specific perspective, including whether the pervasive concerns about <i>generalizability</i> of results might be productively reframed with respect to <i>transferability</i> of models, and how self-supervision and new deep neural network architectures that facilitate transfer learning can be applied in a person-specific way to the super-intensive longitudinal data arriving in the Human Screenome Project. In developing the possibilities, we suggest Molenaar add a statement to the person-specific Manifesto - \"In short, the concerns about <i>generalizability</i> commonly leveled at the person-specific paradigm are unfounded and can be fully and completely replaced with discussion and demonstrations of <i>transferability</i>.\"</p>","PeriodicalId":53155,"journal":{"name":"Multivariate Behavioral Research","volume":" ","pages":"1211-1219"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9903340","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01Epub Date: 2023-08-17DOI: 10.1080/00273171.2023.2228751
Adriene M Beltz, Dominic P Kelly
Gender is person-specific, and it influences and is influenced by a breadth of multidimensional psychological factors, including cognition. Directionality is important for research on gender and cognition, as debate surrounds, for instance, whether masculine self-concepts precede spatial skills, or whether the reverse is true. In order to provide novel insights into the individualized nature of these relations, a person-specific network approach devised by Peter Molenaar and the first author - group iterative multiple model estimation for multiple solutions (GIMME-MS) - was applied to 75-day intensive longitudinal data on gender self-concept (i.e., femininity-masculinity, instrumentality, and expressivity) and cognition (i.e., mental rotations and verbal recall) from 103 young adults. GIMME-MS estimates individualized networks that contain same-day and next-day directed relations, prioritizing relations common across participants. It is ideal for analyzing behavioral time series with unclear directionality, as it generates multiple solutions from which an optimal one is selected. GIMME-MS revealed notable heterogeneity in the presence, direction, and nature of relations from gender self-concept to cognition (∼26% of participants) and vice versa (∼21% of participants). Findings are wholly novel in revealing the person-specific nature of gender and its cognitive dynamics, yet somehow, unsurprising given the revolutionary corpus of Peter Molenaar.
{"title":"Daily Gender and Cognition: A Person-Specific Behavioral Network Analysis.","authors":"Adriene M Beltz, Dominic P Kelly","doi":"10.1080/00273171.2023.2228751","DOIUrl":"10.1080/00273171.2023.2228751","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Gender is person-specific, and it influences and is influenced by a breadth of multidimensional psychological factors, including cognition. Directionality is important for research on gender and cognition, as debate surrounds, for instance, whether masculine self-concepts precede spatial skills, or whether the reverse is true. In order to provide novel insights into the individualized nature of these relations, a person-specific network approach devised by Peter Molenaar and the first author - group iterative multiple model estimation for multiple solutions (GIMME-MS) - was applied to 75-day intensive longitudinal data on gender self-concept (i.e., femininity-masculinity, instrumentality, and expressivity) and cognition (i.e., mental rotations and verbal recall) from 103 young adults. GIMME-MS estimates individualized networks that contain same-day and next-day directed relations, prioritizing relations common across participants. It is ideal for analyzing behavioral time series with unclear directionality, as it generates multiple solutions from which an optimal one is selected. GIMME-MS revealed notable heterogeneity in the presence, direction, and nature of relations from gender self-concept to cognition (∼26% of participants) and vice versa (∼21% of participants). Findings are wholly novel in revealing the person-specific nature of gender and its cognitive dynamics, yet somehow, unsurprising given the revolutionary corpus of Peter Molenaar.</p>","PeriodicalId":53155,"journal":{"name":"Multivariate Behavioral Research","volume":" ","pages":"1188-1197"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10018177","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01Epub Date: 2023-06-09DOI: 10.1080/00273171.2023.2214890
Zita Oravecz, Joachim Vandekerckhove
Testing for Granger causality relies on estimating the capacity of dynamics in one time series to forecast dynamics in another. The canonical test for such temporal predictive causality is based on fitting multivariate time series models and is cast in the classical null hypothesis testing framework. In this framework, we are limited to rejecting the null hypothesis or failing to reject the null - we can never validly accept the null hypothesis of no Granger causality. This is poorly suited for many common purposes, including evidence integration, feature selection, and other cases where it is useful to express evidence against, rather than for, the existence of an association. Here we derive and implement the Bayes factor for Granger causality in a multilevel modeling framework. This Bayes factor summarizes information in the data in terms of a continuously scaled evidence ratio between the presence of Granger causality and its absence. We also introduce this procedure for the multilevel generalization of Granger causality testing. This facilitates inference when information is scarce or noisy or if we are interested primarily in population-level trends. We illustrate our approach with an application on exploring causal relationships in affect using a daily life study.
{"title":"Quantifying Evidence for-and against-Granger Causality with Bayes Factors.","authors":"Zita Oravecz, Joachim Vandekerckhove","doi":"10.1080/00273171.2023.2214890","DOIUrl":"10.1080/00273171.2023.2214890","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Testing for Granger causality relies on estimating the capacity of dynamics in one time series to forecast dynamics in another. The canonical test for such temporal predictive causality is based on fitting multivariate time series models and is cast in the classical null hypothesis testing framework. In this framework, we are limited to rejecting the null hypothesis or failing to reject the null - we can never validly accept the null hypothesis of no Granger causality. This is poorly suited for many common purposes, including evidence integration, feature selection, and other cases where it is useful to express evidence against, rather than for, the existence of an association. Here we derive and implement the Bayes factor for Granger causality in a multilevel modeling framework. This Bayes factor summarizes information in the data in terms of a continuously scaled evidence ratio between the presence of Granger causality and its absence. We also introduce this procedure for the multilevel generalization of Granger causality testing. This facilitates inference when information is scarce or noisy or if we are interested primarily in population-level trends. We illustrate our approach with an application on exploring causal relationships in affect using a daily life study.</p>","PeriodicalId":53155,"journal":{"name":"Multivariate Behavioral Research","volume":" ","pages":"1148-1158"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9648960","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}