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Bayesian Growth Curve Modeling with Measurement Error in Time. 具有时间测量误差的贝叶斯生长曲线建模。
IF 5.3 3区 心理学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-19 DOI: 10.1080/00273171.2025.2473937
Lijin Zhang, Wen Qu, Zhiyong Zhang

Growth curve modeling has been widely used in many disciplines to understand the trajectories of growth. Two popular forms utilized in the real-world analyses are the linear and quadratic growth curve models. These models operate on the assumption that measurements are conducted exactly at pre-set time or intervals. In essence, the reliability of these models is deeply tied to the punctuality and consistency of the data collection process. However, in real-world data collection, this assumption is often violated. Deviations from the ideal measurement schedule often emerge, resulting in measurement error in time and consequent biased responses. Our simulation findings indicate that such error can skew estimations, especially in quadratic GCM. To account for the measurement error in time, we introduce a Bayesian growth curve model to accommodate the error in the individual time values. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach through simulation studies. Furthermore, to illustrate its application in practice, we provide a real-data example, underscoring the practical benefits of the proposed model.

生长曲线模型已广泛应用于许多学科,以了解生长轨迹。在现实世界分析中使用的两种流行形式是线性和二次增长曲线模型。这些模型是在假设测量精确地在预先设定的时间或间隔进行的基础上运行的。从本质上讲,这些模型的可靠性与数据收集过程的准时性和一致性密切相关。然而,在实际的数据收集中,这个假设经常被违背。通常会出现与理想测量计划的偏差,从而导致测量时间误差和相应的偏差响应。我们的仿真结果表明,这种误差会使估计偏斜,特别是在二次GCM中。为了解释时间上的测量误差,我们引入了贝叶斯增长曲线模型来适应单个时间值的误差。我们通过仿真研究证明了所提出方法的性能。此外,为了说明其在实践中的应用,我们提供了一个实际数据示例,强调了所提出模型的实际效益。
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引用次数: 0
Multilevel Latent Class Analysis: State-of-the-Art Methodologies and Their Implementation in the R Package multilevLCA. 多层次潜在类分析:最先进的方法及其在R包中的实现。
IF 5.3 3区 心理学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-25 DOI: 10.1080/00273171.2025.2473935
Johan Lyrvall, Roberto Di Mari, Zsuzsa Bakk, Jennifer Oser, Jouni Kuha

Latent class (LC) analysis is a model-based clustering approach for categorical data, with a wide range of applications in the social sciences and beyond. When the data have a hierarchical structure, the multilevel LC model can be used to account for higher-level dependencies between the units by means of a further categorical LC variable at the group level. The research interest of LC analysis typically lies in the relationship between the LCs and external covariates, or predictors. To estimate LC models with covariates, researchers can use the one-step approach, or the generally recommended stepwise estimators, which separate the estimation of the clustering model from the subsequent estimation of the regression model. The package multilevLCA has the most comprehensive set of model specifications and estimation approaches for this family of models in the open-source domain, estimating single- and multilevel LC models, with and without covariates, using the one-step and stepwise approaches.

潜类(LC)分析是一种基于模型的分类数据聚类方法,在社会科学及其他领域有着广泛的应用。当数据具有分层结构时,多层次 LC 模型可以通过在群体层面上的另一个分类 LC 变量来解释单元之间更高层次的依赖关系。LC 分析的研究兴趣通常在于 LC 与外部协变量或预测因子之间的关系。要估计带有协变量的 LC 模型,研究人员可以使用一步法或一般推荐的逐步估计法,这种方法将聚类模型的估计与随后的回归模型估计分开。在开源领域,multilevLCA 软件包拥有该系列模型最全面的模型规格和估计方法,可以使用一步法和逐步法估计单层和多层 LC 模型,包括有协方差和无协方差的模型。
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引用次数: 0
Missing Data in Discrete Time State-Space Modeling of Ecological Momentary Assessment Data: A Monte-Carlo Study of Imputation Methods. 生态瞬时评价数据离散时间状态空间建模中的缺失数据:一种蒙特卡罗方法的研究。
IF 5.3 3区 心理学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-17 DOI: 10.1080/00273171.2025.2469055
Lindley R Slipetz, Ami Falk, Teague R Henry

When using ecological momentary assessment data (EMA), missing data is pervasive as participant attrition is a common issue. Thus, any EMA study must have a missing data plan. In this paper, we discuss missingness in time series analysis and the appropriate way to handle missing data when the data is modeled as an idiographic discrete time continuous measure state-space model. We found that Missing Completely at Random, Missing At Random, and Time-dependent Missing At Random data have less bias and variability than Autoregressive Time-dependent Missing At Random and Missing Not At Random. The Kalman filter excelled at handling missing data under most conditions. Contrary to the literature, we found that using a variety of methods, multiple imputations struggled to recover the parameters.

当使用生态瞬时评估数据(EMA)时,数据缺失是普遍存在的,因为参与者的流失是一个常见的问题。因此,任何EMA研究都必须有一个缺失的数据计划。本文讨论了时间序列分析中的缺失问题,以及将数据建模为具体的离散时间连续测度状态空间模型时,缺失数据的处理方法。我们发现完全随机缺失、随机缺失和时间依赖随机缺失数据比自回归时间依赖随机缺失和非随机缺失数据具有更小的偏差和可变性。卡尔曼滤波在大多数情况下都能很好地处理缺失数据。与文献相反,我们发现使用多种方法,多次imputation难以恢复参数。
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引用次数: 0
Development of a Method for Handling Doubly-Censored Data in a Latent Growth Curve Modeling Framework. 潜在增长曲线建模框架中处理双截尾数据方法的发展。
IF 5.3 3区 心理学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-26 DOI: 10.1080/00273171.2025.2478071
Sooyong Lee, Tiffany A Whittaker

This study addresses the challenge of doubly-censoring effects in longitudinal data structures, particularly within latent growth curve models (LGCMs). Censoring can severely bias estimates and inferences, distorting the relationships between growth factors and covariates. To combat this issue, this study introduces the Generalized Tobit estimator (GBIT), an advancement of the conventional Tobit model, designed to handle mixed censoring effects in longitudinal data. The objectives of this study were threefold: (a) to develop GBIT for doubly-censored data, (b) to evaluate GBIT's performance in LGCMs under mixed censoring, and (c) to examine the impact of such censoring on covariate effects and outcomes within LGCMs. A Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to assess GBIT's effectiveness to handle doubly-censoring effects in the LGCM framework, demonstrating its ability to provide unbiased estimates even in the presence of significant censoring. Also, GBIT was applied for empirical data positing doubly-censoring effects, further supporting the use of GBIT, particularly in situations involving doubly-censored data.

本研究解决了纵向数据结构中双重审查效应的挑战,特别是在潜在增长曲线模型(LGCMs)中。审查会严重影响估计和推断,扭曲生长因子和协变量之间的关系。为了解决这个问题,本研究引入了广义Tobit估计器(GBIT),这是传统Tobit模型的一种改进,旨在处理纵向数据中的混合滤波效应。本研究的目标有三个:(a)为双重审查数据开发GBIT, (b)评估混合审查下GBIT在lgcm中的表现,以及(c)检查这种审查对lgcm内协变量效应和结果的影响。我们进行了蒙特卡罗模拟,以评估GBIT在LGCM框架中处理双重审查效应的有效性,证明即使在存在显著审查的情况下,它也能够提供无偏估计。此外,GBIT应用于假定双重审查效应的经验数据,进一步支持GBIT的使用,特别是在涉及双重审查数据的情况下。
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引用次数: 0
Gaussian distributional structural equation models: A framework for modeling latent heteroscedasticity. 高斯分布结构方程模型:潜在异方差建模的框架。
IF 5.3 3区 心理学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-17 DOI: 10.1080/00273171.2025.2483252
Luna Fazio, Paul-Christian Bürkner

Accounting for the complexity of psychological theories requires methods that can predict not only changes in the means of latent variables - such as personality factors, creativity, or intelligence - but also changes in their variances. Structural equation modeling (SEM) is the framework of choice for analyzing complex relationships among latent variables, but the modeling of latent variances as a function of other latent variables is a task that current methods only support to a limited extent. In this article, we develop a Bayesian framework for Gaussian distributional SEM, which broadens the scope of feasible models for latent heteroscedasticity. We use statistical simulation to validate our framework across four distinct model structures, in which we demonstrate that reliable statistical inferences can be achieved and that computation can be performed with sufficient efficiency for practical everyday use. We illustrate our framework's applicability in a real-world case study that addresses a substantive hypothesis from personality psychology.

考虑到心理学理论的复杂性,需要的方法不仅可以预测潜在变量(如个性因素、创造力或智力)的均值变化,还可以预测其方差的变化。结构方程建模(SEM)是分析潜在变量之间复杂关系的首选框架,但潜在方差作为其他潜在变量的函数的建模是一项现有方法只能在有限程度上支持的任务。在本文中,我们开发了高斯分布扫描电镜的贝叶斯框架,扩大了潜在异方差的可行模型的范围。我们使用统计模拟来跨四种不同的模型结构验证我们的框架,其中我们证明可以实现可靠的统计推断,并且计算可以以足够的效率执行实际的日常使用。我们在一个现实世界的案例研究中说明了我们的框架的适用性,该研究解决了人格心理学的一个实质性假设。
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引用次数: 0
Correcting for Differences in Measurement Unreliability in Meta-Analysis of Variances. 方差荟萃分析中测量不信度差异的校正。
IF 3.5 3区 心理学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-14 DOI: 10.1080/00273171.2025.2469789
Katrin Jansen, Steffen Nestler

There is a growing interest of researchers in meta-analytic methods for comparing variances as a means to answer questions on between-group differences in variability. When measurements are fallible, however, the variance of an outcome reflects both the variance of the true scores and the error variance. Consequently, effect sizes based on variances, such as the log variability ratio (lnVR) or the log coefficient of variation ratio (lnCVR), may thus not only reflect between-group differences in the true-score variances but also differences in measurement reliability. In this article, we derive formulas to correct the lnVR and lnCVR and their sampling variances for between-group differences in reliability and evaluate their performance in simulation studies. We find that when the goal is to meta-analyze differences between the true-score variances and reliability differs between groups, our proposed corrections lead to accurate estimates of effect sizes and sampling variances in single studies, accurate estimates of the average effect and the between-study variance in random-effects meta-analysis, and adequate type I error rates for the significance test of the average effect. We discuss how to deal with problems arising from missing or imprecise group-specific reliability estimates in meta-analytic data sets and identify questions for further methodological research.

研究人员对比较方差的元分析方法越来越感兴趣,作为回答组间变异性差异问题的一种手段。然而,当测量结果不可靠时,结果的方差既反映了真实得分的方差,也反映了误差方差。因此,基于方差的效应量,如对数变异性比(lnVR)或对数变异性比系数(lnCVR),不仅可以反映组间真实得分方差的差异,还可以反映测量信度的差异。在本文中,我们推导了校正lnVR和lnCVR及其样本方差的公式,以消除组间可靠性差异,并评估了它们在模拟研究中的性能。我们发现,当我们的目标是荟萃分析组间真实得分方差和信度差异之间的差异时,我们提出的修正可以准确估计单个研究的效应大小和抽样方差,准确估计随机效应荟萃分析的平均效应和研究间方差,以及平均效应显著性检验的适当I型错误率。我们讨论了如何处理元分析数据集中缺失或不精确的群体特定可靠性估计所产生的问题,并确定了进一步方法学研究的问题。
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引用次数: 0
Bayesian Modeling of Longitudinal Multiple-Group IRT Data with Skewed Latent Distributions and Growth Curves. 具有倾斜潜在分布和生长曲线的纵向多组IRT数据的贝叶斯建模。
IF 5.3 3区 心理学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-10 DOI: 10.1080/00273171.2025.2480437
José Roberto Silva Dos Santos, Caio Lucidius Naberezny Azevedo, Jean-Paul Fox

In this work, we introduce a multiple-group longitudinal IRT model that accounts for skewed latent trait distributions. Our approach extends the model proposed by Santos et al. in 2022, which introduced a general class of longitudinal IRT models. The latent traits follow a multivariate skew-normal distribution, induced by an antedependence structure with centered skew-normal errors. Additionally, latent mean trajectories are modeled using quadratic curves, while structured covariance matrices capture within-participant dependencies. A three-parameter probit model is employed for dichotomous items. Bayesian parameter estimation and model fit assessment are conducted through a hybrid MCMC algorithm, combining the FFBS sampler with Metropolis-Hastings steps. The model's effectiveness is demonstrated through an application to real data from the Longitudinal Study of the 2005 School Generation in Brazil (GERES project), where it outperforms the normal model by better capturing asymmetry in latent traits. A simulation study further supports its robustness across various test conditions.

在这项工作中,我们引入了一个多组纵向IRT模型,该模型解释了倾斜的潜在特征分布。我们的方法扩展了Santos等人在2022年提出的模型,该模型引入了一类一般的纵向IRT模型。潜在性状遵循多元偏正态分布,这是由中心偏正态误差的前相关结构引起的。此外,潜在平均轨迹使用二次曲线建模,而结构化协方差矩阵捕获参与者内部依赖关系。二分类项目采用三参数概率模型。采用FFBS采样器与Metropolis-Hastings步长相结合的混合MCMC算法进行贝叶斯参数估计和模型拟合评估。该模型的有效性通过对巴西2005年学龄一代纵向研究(GERES项目)的真实数据的应用得到了证明,该模型通过更好地捕捉潜在特征的不对称性而优于普通模型。仿真研究进一步支持了该方法在各种测试条件下的鲁棒性。
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引用次数: 0
Autoencoders for Amortized Joint Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Confirmatory Item Factor Models. 验证项因子模型的平摊联合最大似然估计的自编码器。
IF 5.3 3区 心理学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-12 DOI: 10.1080/00273171.2025.2456598
Dylan Molenaar, Raoul P P P Grasman, Mariana Cúri

Neural networks like variational autoencoders have been proposed as a statistical tool to fit item factor models to data. Advantages are that high dimensional models can be estimated more efficiently as compared to conventional approaches. In this study, we demonstrate advantages of a specific autoencoder as a tool for amortized joint maximum likelihood estimation of item factor models. Contrary to contemporary joint maximum likelihood estimation and marginal maximum likelihood estimation, no additional parameter constraints are necessary to ensure standard asymptotic theory to apply. In a simulation study, the performance of the autoencoder is compared to constrained joint maximum likelihood and various forms of marginal maximum likelihood under different distributions for the factor scores. Results show that the amortized joint maximum likelihood estimates of the factors scores are overall less biased as compared to the other approaches. We illustrate the use of the autoencoder in two real data examples.

像变分自编码器这样的神经网络已经被提出作为一种统计工具来拟合项目因子模型。与传统方法相比,高维模型的优点是可以更有效地估计。在这项研究中,我们展示了一个特定的自编码器作为项目因子模型的平摊联合最大似然估计工具的优势。与当代的联合极大似然估计和边际极大似然估计相反,不需要额外的参数约束来确保标准渐近理论的应用。在仿真研究中,比较了约束联合极大似然和各种形式的边际极大似然在不同因子分数分布下的性能。结果表明,与其他方法相比,因子得分的平摊联合最大似然估计总体上偏少。我们在两个实际数据示例中说明了自动编码器的使用。
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引用次数: 0
Estimating Latent State-Trait Models for Experience-Sampling Data in R with the lsttheory Package: A Tutorial. 用lsttheory包在R中估计经验抽样数据的潜在状态-特征模型:教程。
IF 5.3 3区 心理学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2025-05-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-25 DOI: 10.1080/00273171.2025.2454904
Julia Norget, Alexa Weiss, Axel Mayer

As the popularity of the experience-sampling methodology rises, there is a growing need for suitable analytical procedures. These studies often aim to separate fleeting situation-specific influences from more enduring ones. Latent state-trait (LST) models can make this differentiation. This tutorial discusses multiple-indicator wide-format LST models suitable for experience-sampling data. We outline second-order and first-order model specifications, their advantages and disadvantages, and make the assumptions of first-order specifications explicit. These LST models are very flexible, allowing for various different models and for testing invariance assumptions. However, their specification is tedious and error-prone. This tutorial introduces a new user-friendly browser app and R-function for experience sampling models in the R-package lsttheory. Extending on existing models, the software also allows to add covariates, which can further explain the stable components. Throughout the tutorial, we answer exemplary research questions about well-being in everyday life with data from a five-day experience-sampling study. An autoregressive model with indicator-specific traits was most appropriate for the data and revealed relatively high consistency, implying that well-being depends more strongly on the person than the current situation. Of the Big Five, extraversion, emotional stability and agreeableness are predictive of trait well-being. We conclude with recommendations about model fit and comparisons.

随着经验抽样方法的普及,越来越需要合适的分析程序。这些研究通常旨在将短暂的情境特定影响与更持久的影响区分开来。潜在状态-特征(LST)模型可以进行这种区分。本教程讨论适合于经验采样数据的多指标宽幅LST模型。我们概述了二阶和一阶模型规范及其优缺点,并明确了一阶规范的假设。这些LST模型非常灵活,允许使用各种不同的模型和测试不变性假设。然而,它们的规范冗长且容易出错。本教程介绍了一个新的用户友好的浏览器应用程序和R-function,用于R-package lsttheory中的经验采样模型。在现有模型的基础上,该软件还允许添加协变量,这可以进一步解释稳定成分。在整个教程中,我们用为期五天的经验抽样研究的数据回答了关于日常生活中幸福的示范性研究问题。具有指标特异性特征的自回归模型最适合这些数据,并且显示出相对较高的一致性,这意味着福祉更多地取决于个人而不是当前情况。在五大特质中,外向性、情绪稳定性和宜人性是特质幸福感的预测指标。最后,我们提出了关于模型拟合和比较的建议。
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引用次数: 0
Causal Estimands and Multiply Robust Estimation of Mediated-Moderation. 中介调节的因果估计与多重稳健估计。
IF 5.3 3区 心理学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2025-05-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-13 DOI: 10.1080/00273171.2024.2444949
Xiao Liu, Mark Eddy, Charles R Martinez

When studying effect heterogeneity between different subgroups (i.e., moderation), researchers are frequently interested in the mediation mechanisms underlying the heterogeneity, that is, the mediated moderation. For assessing mediated moderation, conventional methods typically require parametric models to define mediated moderation, which has limitations when parametric models may be misspecified and when causal interpretation is of interest. For causal interpretations about mediation, causal mediation analysis is increasingly popular but is underdeveloped for mediated moderation analysis. In this study, we extend the causal mediation literature, and we propose a novel method for mediated moderation analysis. Using the potential outcomes framework, we obtain two causal estimands that decompose the total moderation: (i) the mediated moderation attributable to a mediator and (ii) the remaining moderation unattributable to the mediator. We also develop a multiply robust estimation method for the mediated moderation analysis, which can incorporate machine learning methods in the inference of the causal estimands. We evaluate the proposed method through simulations. We illustrate the proposed mediated moderation analysis by assessing the mediation mechanism that underlies the gender difference in the effect of a preventive intervention on adolescent behavioral outcomes.

在研究不同亚组间的效应异质性(即调节)时,研究者往往对异质性的中介机制感兴趣,即介导的调节。为了评估中介性调节,传统方法通常需要参数模型来定义中介性调节,当参数模型可能被错误指定和当因果解释感兴趣时,这有局限性。对于中介的因果解释,因果中介分析越来越受欢迎,但对中介的调节分析还不发达。在本研究中,我们扩展了因果中介文献,并提出了一种新的中介调节分析方法。使用潜在结果框架,我们获得了分解总调节的两个因果估计:(i)归因于调解人的中介调节和(ii)归因于调解人的剩余调节。我们还开发了一种用于中介调节分析的多重稳健估计方法,该方法可以将机器学习方法纳入因果估计的推断中。我们通过仿真对该方法进行了评估。我们通过评估预防干预对青少年行为结果影响的性别差异的中介机制来说明所提出的中介调节分析。
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引用次数: 0
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Multivariate Behavioral Research
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