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THE EU IN CENTRAL ASIA: UNREALIZED AMBITIONS AND PROSPECTS 欧盟在中亚:未实现的野心和前景
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-12-17 DOI: 10.37178/ca-c.21.4.01
O. Timakova
The Soviet Union has disappeared from the maps of the world, leaving the EU a chance to participate in the political processes unfolding in Central Asia, even if the vast spaces between them limited Brussels’ involvement in regional policies. This explains the European Commission’s succinct definition: “a bridge to China, as well as to Afghanistan and the Middle East” and “a source of significant energy imports for the EU.” For the same reason, Central Asia remains outside the European neighborhood policy; in defiance of the Treaty of Lisbon, its members prefer to act independently on the international arena: their interest in Central Asia and, therefore, their contributions to the common EU policy in the region differ vastly. Following the signing of partnership and cooperation agreements with the Central Asian states, the EU became one of their important trade partners and key investors. As such, Brussels pays particular attention to democracy, human rights and civil society in all the regional countries and cooperates with them in the security sphere. Destabilization in Afghanistan has forced border security issues into the focus of corresponding programs and initiatives realized by the EU. Their growing dependence on external sources of energy and an absence of guaranteed supplies stir up concerns in the EU member-states and in Brussels and breed hopes that Central Asia, with its considerable hydrocarbon resources and advantageous geographic location, may play an important role in energy supplies. So far, EU policy in Central Asia leaves much to be desired, while the results of the projects it had initiated in the region are clearly contradictory. Brussels has achieved a lot in diplomatic relations with the local states, which allowed it to expand its trade and economic cooperation and develop political coordination. However, its achievements in many other spheres (human rights, counteracting corruption and economic diversification) are not particularly impressive. The worsening situation in Afghanistan will generate migration flows to the Central Asian countries and the European Union. Another migration crisis cannot be ruled out.
苏联已经从世界地图上消失,给欧盟留下了参与中亚政治进程的机会,即使它们之间的巨大空间限制了布鲁塞尔对地区政策的参与。这解释了欧盟委员会的简洁定义:“通往中国、阿富汗和中东的桥梁”和“欧盟重要能源进口来源”。出于同样的原因,中亚仍然不在欧洲周边政策范围内;无视《里斯本条约》,其成员国更倾向于在国际舞台上独立行动:他们对中亚的利益以及因此对欧盟在该地区共同政策的贡献大相径庭。在与中亚国家签署伙伴关系和合作协议后,欧盟成为其重要的贸易伙伴和主要投资者之一。因此,布鲁塞尔特别关注所有区域国家的民主、人权和民间社会,并在安全领域与它们合作。阿富汗局势的不稳定迫使边境安全问题成为欧盟相应计划和举措的重点。它们日益依赖外部能源,缺乏有保障的供应,这引起了欧盟成员国和布鲁塞尔的担忧,并引发了人们的希望,即拥有大量碳氢化合物资源和有利地理位置的中亚可能在能源供应中发挥重要作用。到目前为止,欧盟在中亚的政策还有很多不足之处,而它在该地区启动的项目的结果显然是矛盾的。布鲁塞尔在与当地国家的外交关系方面取得了很大成就,这使其能够扩大贸易和经济合作,发展政治协调。然而,它在许多其他领域(人权、打击腐败和经济多样化)取得的成就并不是特别令人印象深刻。阿富汗局势的恶化将导致移民流向中亚国家和欧洲联盟。不能排除再次发生移民危机的可能性。
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引用次数: 1
CENTRAL ASIA: THE BUMPY ROAD TOWARDS POLITICAL MATURITY 中亚:走向政治成熟的崎岖之路
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-12-17 DOI: 10.37178/ca-c.21.4.04
O. Karpovich
Following the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the new Central Asian independent states of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan replaced the Soviet republics of Central (Sredniaia) Asia and Kazakhstan. By the time they gained independence, these countries had already developed specific mechanisms of governance: The Communist Party and state structures had relied, to a great extent, on certain regional clan principles of decision-making inherited from their distant past. The new states immediately declared that they would strive to build Western-style political systems. They elected their presidents and parliaments, set up judicial systems, yet the political elites proved unable to realize the democratic standards of the West they supported in words. Over the course of three decades, heads of state, who dominated and still remain the dominant figures in their countries and are responsible for domestic and foreign policies have replaced each other without any real competition. None of the regional states can boast of competitive presidential elections. On the other hand, even though their political development may have external similarities, there are still numerous differences rooted in their very different past, cultures and mentalities. The regional clan division, swept under the carpet during the Soviet period, was revived as an important and highly influential feature. Kazakhstan was divided into zhuzes; Kyrgyzstan is in the midst of an ongoing regional confrontation between the South and the North; in Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan regional clans have gradually gained a lot of political weight. This means that the leaders of all Central Asian countries had no choice but to take into account the interests of groups and clans and the ties between different tribes, which inevitably affected the principles of governance and choice of officials. The personal characteristics of leaders who came to power after the Soviet Union had left the stage and their interpretations of the ongoing processes played a huge role in regional developments, the relationships between the regional states, the regional balance of power and the political situation. Today, all the above-mentioned countries with the exception of Tajikistan, have elected new presidents either amid domestic political turmoil or through a power transit within the same group. This means that in all Central Asian countries presidential elections are not seen as an instrument of change of power but, rather, as an instrument of remaining in power. The complicated economic situation, the non-regional actors that put pressure on the local political elites and, recently, the COVID-19 pandemic, which intensified the social and economic problems, did nothing positive for the political and economic stability in Central Asia.
苏联解体后,哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦、土库曼斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦等新的中亚独立国家取代了苏联的中亚共和国和哈萨克斯坦。到这些国家获得独立时,它们已经形成了具体的治理机制:共产党和国家结构在很大程度上依赖于从遥远的过去继承下来的某些地区氏族决策原则。这些新成立的国家立即宣布,它们将努力建立西方式的政治制度。他们选举了总统和议会,建立了司法体系,但事实证明,政治精英们无法实现他们口头上支持的西方民主标准。在过去的30年里,曾经主宰并仍然是各自国家的主导人物,负责国内和外交政策的国家元首在没有任何真正竞争的情况下相互取代。该地区没有一个州可以夸耀自己的总统选举竞争激烈。另一方面,尽管它们的政治发展可能具有外部相似性,但由于它们的历史、文化和心态的不同,仍然存在许多差异。在苏联时期被掩盖起来的地区宗族划分,作为一个重要的、极具影响力的特征重新出现。哈萨克斯坦被分为诸侯;吉尔吉斯斯坦正处于南部和北部持续的地区对抗之中;在塔吉克斯坦、土库曼斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦,地区部族逐渐获得了很大的政治影响力。这意味着所有中亚国家的领导人都不得不考虑集团和氏族的利益以及不同部落之间的关系,这不可避免地影响到治理原则和官员的选择。苏联退出舞台后上台的领导人的个人特征以及他们对正在进行的进程的解释在地区发展,地区国家之间的关系,地区权力平衡和政治局势中发挥了巨大作用。今天,除塔吉克斯坦外,上述所有国家或在国内政治动荡中,或通过同一集团内部的权力交接,选出了新总统。这意味着,在所有中亚国家,总统选举不是被视为权力更迭的工具,而是被视为继续掌权的工具。复杂的经济形势、域外势力给地区政治精英施加压力,加上近期新冠肺炎疫情加剧了社会经济问题,对中亚政治经济稳定不利。
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引用次数: 0
PERCEPTIONS OF CHINA AND OTHER GREAT POWERS AMONG KAZAKHSTAN AND KYRGYZSTAN YOUTH 哈萨克斯坦和吉尔吉斯斯坦青年对中国和其他大国的看法
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-12-17 DOI: 10.37178/ca-c.21.4.07
Nurettin Can, Ibrahim Koncak, Sanar Muhyaddin, I. Keles
This article studies the perception of great powers in the eyes of students in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan using data collected through an online survey. The research has compared the perceptions of China’s and other Great Powers’ economic, political, and military authority among the youth of Central Asian countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. To analyze these perceptions, young people from Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan (N = 262) took part in a survey in the spring of 2021. Responses were analyzed to reveal the differences in perception by applying descriptive and inferential statistical methods, i.e., one-sample t-test. An association of geodemographic factors with the perception towards global powers was discovered by applying the chi-square test statistical method. The early research revealed that the role of the other Great Powers was seen mainly in political terms, while China’s role was mostly economic, however, recent studies made it clear that China’s political influence is increasing in the region. Another finding from this research is that China’s position on human rights and environmental issues is more negatively perceived than that of the other Great powers.
本文利用在线调查收集的数据,研究了吉尔吉斯斯坦和哈萨克斯坦学生眼中的大国观念。该研究比较了新冠肺炎大流行期间中亚国家青年对中国和其他大国经济、政治和军事权威的看法。为了分析这些看法,来自哈萨克斯坦和吉尔吉斯斯坦的年轻人(N=262)参加了2021年春季的一项调查。通过应用描述性和推断性统计方法,即单样本t检验,对反应进行分析,以揭示感知的差异。通过应用卡方检验统计方法,发现了地理地理因素与对全球大国的认知之间的联系。早期研究表明,其他大国的作用主要体现在政治方面,而中国的作用主要是经济方面。然而,最近的研究表明,中国在该地区的政治影响力正在增加。这项研究的另一个发现是,中国在人权和环境问题上的立场比其他大国的立场更为负面。
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引用次数: 1
KAZAKHSTAN’S SOVEREIGNTY IN THE CONTEXT OF KAZAKH-RUSSIAN RELATIONS 在哈俄关系背景下的哈萨克斯坦主权问题
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-12-17 DOI: 10.37178/ca-c.21.4.09
R. Kadyrzhanov, Zhannat Makasheva, Zhyldyz Amrebayeva, A. Amrebayev
The article examines the problem of sovereignty of the Republic of Kazakhstan through the prism of Kazakh-Russian interstate relations. The key conclusions made by the authors are that, first of all, Kazakh-Russian relations are based on the post-Soviet model and the concept of the sovereignty of the Republic of Kazakhstan, which retains significant elements of the Soviet constitutional model of relations between the Union center and the republics; secondly, as part of this sovereignty model, the Republic of Kazakhstan has to make concessions in the economic, financial and other forms of sovereignty. However, the Republic of Kazakhstan makes no concessions in matters of territorial integrity and other fundamental aspects of its sovereignty. Thirdly, it was easier for the Republic of Kazakhstan to maintain the image of the Russian Federation as a strategic partner between 1991 and the mid-2000s, but since that time, the Russian Federation has been pursuing an openly neo-imperial policy in the post-Soviet space, thus, the increasing securitization of the relations with the Russian Federation requires great efforts from the Republic of Kazakhstan to protect its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
本文从哈萨克斯坦-俄罗斯国家间关系的角度考察了哈萨克斯坦共和国的主权问题。作者的主要结论是,首先,哈俄关系建立在后苏联模式和哈萨克斯坦共和国主权概念的基础上,它保留了苏联宪法模式中联盟中心与各共和国关系的重要元素;第二,作为这一主权模式的一部分,哈萨克斯坦共和国必须在经济、财政和其他形式的主权方面作出让步。但是,哈萨克斯坦共和国在领土完整问题和其主权的其他基本方面不作任何让步。第三,1991年至2000年代中期,哈萨克斯坦共和国较容易维持俄罗斯联邦作为战略伙伴的形象,但此后,俄罗斯联邦在后苏联时代奉行公开的新帝国主义政策,因此,与俄罗斯联邦关系的日益安全需要哈萨克斯坦共和国作出巨大努力,以保护其主权和领土完整。
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引用次数: 0
CICA AND ASIAN COOPERATION ORGANIZATIONS (SCO, ASEAN, OIC): COOPERATION POTENTIAL AND PROSPECTS CICA与亚洲合作组织:合作潜力与前景
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-12-17 DOI: 10.37178/ca-c.21.4.02
M. Laumulin, S. Kozhirova
The article contains an overview of the activities of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA), a structure aimed at creating a comprehensive mechanism for developing and reconciling the positions of Asian countries on key security issues. The CICA is a forum that many regional states have joined as permanent participants. Eight countries and five international organizations, including the U.N., currently have an observer status at the CICA, which cooperates with existing regional organizations such as SCO, ASEAN, and OIC in a number of specific areas. The current concept of CICA’s work is aligned with five main spheres: military and political collaboration; the fight against new challenges and threats, including terrorism; drug trafficking; transnational crime and human trafficking; as well as the economic, environmental and human dimensions. Cooperation with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, whose members (including the observer countries) are all also members of the Conference, will be of great importance for the further development of CICA. The presence of both resource-producing countries and large oil and gas importers in the organization creates the preconditions for the formation of an energy block within its framework, which will increase the energy security of its member states. The authors note that the interaction between ASEAN and the CICA can be based on five points required for building a “community of common destiny,” which were set forth by President of the People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping in Jakarta: (1) adhere to the principle of trust and strive for good neighborliness; (2) adhere to the principle of cooperation and mutual benefit; (3) constantly provide mutual assistance; (4) adhere to the principle of “living in perfect harmony”; (5) adhere to the principle of openness and tolerance. The authors note that the problem of Afghanistan can become a point of contact and development of joint approaches and strategies of the CICA and the OIC in the context of international and regional security. The author concludes that the transformation of the CICA into the Organization for Security and Development of Asia, proposed by Kazakhstan, would mean an expansion of the conference format and a turn towards solving new problems. In addition, the urgent task of the CICA at present is the transition to qualitatively new levels of cooperation—preventive diplomacy and conflict prevention.
这篇文章概述了亚洲相互协作与建立信任措施会议(亚信)的活动,亚信是一个旨在建立一个全面机制,以发展和协调亚洲国家在关键安全问题上的立场的结构。亚信是该地区许多国家作为永久参与者加入的论坛。目前,包括联合国在内的8个国家和5个国际组织在亚信拥有观察员地位,亚信与上海合作组织、东盟和伊斯兰会议组织等现有地区组织在一些具体领域进行合作。亚信目前的工作理念与五个主要领域保持一致:军事和政治合作;应对包括恐怖主义在内的新挑战和新威胁;毒品走私;跨国犯罪和人口贩运;以及经济、环境和人类层面。上海合作组织的成员(包括观察员国)也是亚信的成员,与上海合作组织开展合作对亚信的进一步发展具有重要意义。资源生产国和大型石油和天然气进口国的存在为在其框架内形成能源区块创造了先决条件,这将增加其成员国的能源安全。(二)坚持合作共赢的原则;(三)不断提供互助;(4)坚持“和谐相处”的原则;(五)坚持开放包容的原则。作者指出,阿富汗问题可以成为亚信和伊斯兰会议组织在国际和区域安全范围内制定联合办法和战略的一个联络点。作者的结论是,哈萨克斯坦提议将亚信转变为亚洲安全与发展组织,将意味着扩大会议形式,转向解决新的问题。此外,亚信目前的紧迫任务是向新的合作水平过渡,即预防性外交和预防冲突。
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引用次数: 0
ACCULTURATION OF ARMENIANS IN RUSSIA: ROLE OF SOCIAL IDENTITIES AND DIASPORA ACTIVITY 亚美尼亚人在俄罗斯的文化适应:社会身份和侨民活动的作用
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-12-17 DOI: 10.37178/ca-c.21.4.10
V. Galyapina, O. Tuchina, I. Apollonov
The Armenian diaspora is one of the largest in Russia and in the world. The Armenians living in the Krasnodar Territory are a large and active group, thus, an investigation into the problem of their acculturation is of scientific and practical importance. Based on the theory of social identity, the theory of acculturation, and the regional socio-cultural context, the study focused on the role of ethnic, regional and Russian national (civic) identities and diaspora activity in the acculturation of the Armenians in the Krasnodar Territory. The study used the scales from the MIRIPS project questionnaire (Mutual Intercultural Relations in Plural Societies). The sample consisted of 181 respondents. Using structural equation modeling, the ethnic and Russian national identities of the Armenians living in the Krasnodar Territory were revealed as factors that contributed to their integration, and regional identity—as factors that fostered assimilation. Diaspora activity was determined by both ethnic and regional identity and predicted the Armenians’ attitudes towards integration and separation. Also, diaspora activity of the Armenians in the Kuban region facilitated the interconnection of ethnic and regional identities with the separation strategy. In general, the study revealed that all identities (ethnic, regional and Russian national) contribute to a certain degree to the acceptance of the host society culture by the Armenians in the Krasnodar Territory. At the same time, diaspora activity can be an effective mechanism for the adaptation of migrants or a source of problems associated with increased impenetrability of diaspora’s borders, the migrants’ exclusive focus on their ethnic group and their decreased desire for sociocultural integration into the host society. It is important to take this into account when shaping the regional interethnic relations policy.
亚美尼亚侨民是俄罗斯和世界上人数最多的人之一。生活在克拉斯诺达尔地区的亚美尼亚人是一个庞大而活跃的群体,因此,调查他们的文化适应问题具有科学和实际意义。本研究基于社会认同理论、文化适应理论和地区社会文化背景,重点研究了民族、地区和俄罗斯民族(公民)认同和散居活动在克拉斯诺达尔地区亚美尼亚人文化适应中的作用。该研究使用了MIRIPS项目问卷(多元社会中的相互文化间关系)中的量表。样本由181名受访者组成。使用结构方程模型,生活在克拉斯诺达尔地区的亚美尼亚人的种族和俄罗斯民族身份被揭示为有助于他们融合的因素,而地区身份则是促进同化的因素。散居活动由种族和地区认同决定,并预测了亚美尼亚人对融合和分离的态度。此外,库班地区亚美尼亚人的散居活动促进了种族和地区身份与分离战略的相互联系。总的来说,研究表明,所有身份(种族、地区和俄罗斯国籍)在一定程度上有助于克拉斯诺达尔地区亚美尼亚人接受东道国社会文化。与此同时,散居国外的活动可能是移民适应的有效机制,也可能是与散居国外边界日益难以穿透、移民只关注其族裔群体以及他们融入东道国社会的社会文化愿望下降有关的问题的根源。在制定地区民族关系政策时,必须考虑到这一点。
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引用次数: 1
THE ADAPTIVE CAPACITY OF YOUNG MIGRANTS FROM KYRGYZSTAN IN MOSCOW 吉尔吉斯斯坦青年移民在莫斯科的适应能力
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-12-17 DOI: 10.37178/ca-c.21.4.11
G. Osadchaya, Egor Kireev, Evgenia E. Kiseleva, A. Chernikova
The significant numbers of migrants from Kyrgyzstan in Moscow and the difficulties in adapting to the new conditions recorded by our research highlight the need to explore the adaptive capacity of young Kyrgyz. The lack of scientific knowledge about the potential adaptive capacities of different groups of young Kyrgyz hinders the creation of optimal conditions that would allow them to internalize norms, values, and rules of behavior, increases the potential for conflict in the Moscow community, makes the life of migrants less comfortable, and complicates integration processes in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). The purpose of this study is to characterize the adaptive capacity of young people from Kyrgyzstan in Moscow that helps them fit into the social environment, allows them to overcome the discomfort caused by the contradictory social context and unfamiliar living conditions, and influences their success in the host community and their attitudes to integration. The analysis presented in this article rests on empirical data obtained from a structured interview with 823 migrants, citizens of Kyrgyzstan aged 17 to 30 years, conducted in 2020. The novelty of the study lies in a systemic examination and comprehensive assessment of the social adaptation capacity of this social community, because up to now publications on this topic have considered only some aspects of the phenomenon. In this article, “adaptive capacity” refers to the set of individual characteristics of migrants that ensures their inclusion into the host society, a change in previous norms and models of behavior, and the socialization of new behavior models emerging in the process of interaction between the individual and the new socio-cultural conditions of life and work as the synergistic effect of the relationship and interaction between the adaptive capacity of the individual and that of the environment. Its analysis is based on a description of expectations, perceptions, and social attitudes; the level of empathy, openness and complementarity with regard to the host community; and the degree of tolerance for people of other nationalities and identities. The article shows how migrants evaluate the adaptive capacity of the environment as resulting from coordinated, concerted, and friendly action by all stakeholders: government, employers, and local population. It also analyzes the associations that arise in connection with Russia. The study reveals the impact of migrants’ adaptive capacity on their attitudes to integration processes in the EAEU. It was shown that notions about the nature of the interaction between Muscovites and migrants that is necessary to harmonize the individual and the environment (assimilation, bicultural adaptation or separation) determine the depth and direction of the activities of young migrants and their assessments of concrete social reality, while their strategic preferences with regard to the cultural norms and values of other peoples determine
我们的研究记录了大量来自莫斯科的吉尔吉斯斯坦移民和适应新条件的困难,这突出了探索年轻吉尔吉斯人适应能力的必要性。缺乏对不同吉尔吉斯青年群体潜在适应能力的科学认识,阻碍了为他们内化规范、价值观和行为规则创造最佳条件,增加了莫斯科社区冲突的可能性,使移民的生活更不舒适,并使欧亚经济联盟(EAEU)的一体化进程复杂化。本研究的目的是表征吉尔吉斯斯坦在莫斯科的年轻人的适应能力,帮助他们融入社会环境,使他们克服矛盾的社会背景和不熟悉的生活条件造成的不适,并影响他们在东道国社区的成功和融入的态度。本文的分析基于2020年对823名17至30岁的吉尔吉斯斯坦移民进行的结构化访谈获得的经验数据。这项研究的新颖之处在于对这一社会群体的社会适应能力进行了系统的检查和全面的评估,因为到目前为止,关于这一主题的出版物只考虑了这一现象的某些方面。在本文中,“适应能力”指的是确保移民融入东道国社会的一系列个人特征,即改变以往的规范和行为模式,在个人与生活和工作的新社会文化条件之间的相互作用过程中出现的新行为模式的社会化作为个人适应能力与环境适应能力之间的关系和相互作用的协同效应。它的分析是基于对期望、感知和社会态度的描述;对收容社区的移情、开放和互补性水平;以及对其他国籍和身份的人的宽容程度。这篇文章展示了移民如何评估环境的适应能力,这是所有利益相关者(政府、雇主和当地居民)协调一致、友好行动的结果。它还分析了与俄罗斯有关的联想。本研究揭示了移民适应能力对其对欧亚经济联盟一体化进程态度的影响。会议表明,关于莫斯科人和移徙者之间相互作用的性质的概念是协调个人和环境所必需的(同化、双文化适应或分离),这决定了青年移徙者活动的深度和方向以及他们对具体社会现实的评价。他们对其他民族的文化规范和价值观的战略偏好决定了适应态度和策略,这在很大程度上表征了他们的适应能力。这些策略如下:莫斯科社区中年轻吉尔吉斯人的边缘化、互补性和主导规范的内化。所进行的研究表明,需要采取措施改善移民与东道国社会之间的相互作用,并为欧亚经济委员会和俄罗斯和吉尔吉斯斯坦的社会机构制定旨在创造适应条件的措施以及为此目的确定适当的工具和机制提供了依据。本研究为移民社会适应理论的发展、后苏联空间移民过程的实证研究以及更好地理解吉尔吉斯斯坦青年社会适应的具体特征铺平了道路。
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引用次数: 0
TURKISH-IRANIAN COMPETITION IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA 土耳其在南高加索和中亚的比赛
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-12-17 DOI: 10.37178/ca-c.21.4.08
Başaran Ayar
Turkey and Iran have maintained stable relations for decades and established cooperation by exploring their common interests despite many political disputes, ideological differences, or economic competition. But recently, many emerging disagreements of the two neighbors started to test the breaking point of this longtime balance. Today, Ankara and Tehran are trying to get a better hand against each other through diplomatic, military, and economic instruments. Starting by presenting an overview of Turkish-Iranian relations, this article focuses on the main points of friction between the two actors in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. The region is going through a critical juncture with crucial events such as the Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020 and the aftermaths of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. So far, Turkey has increased its regional influence by strengthening its economic and diplomatic presence and establishing military cooperation. This target is pursued through the Turkic identity, which provides the ideological basis for Ankara’s regional strategy. The Islamic Republic of Iran, on the other hand, is trying to defend the regional status quo to resist the containment strategy and international isolation that it has been facing since the revolution. The “axis of resistance” idea that Iran pursues, especially in the Middle East, is almost nonexistent in the Central Asian and Caucasian region due to the Russian factor, lack of sympathy to such an approach on the part of the regional actors, and the Regime’s reluctance to change the status quo in its Northern and Eastern borders. In addition to Ankara and Tehran’s competing regional desires, several bilateral problems to solve in energy, trade, security, and migration management put the actors on the opposing sides. The study claims that the incompatibility between the actors’ regional strategies increases to the point that their rivalry in the Middle East will expand to Central Asia and the Caucasian region. But in contrast to this slow process, there are imminent common issues that can only be solved by a joint effort by Turkey and Iran, and this necessity will restrain the damages of this incompatibility on bilateral relations.
土耳其和伊朗几十年来一直保持着稳定的关系,尽管存在许多政治争端、意识形态分歧或经济竞争,但通过探索共同利益建立了合作。但最近,这两个邻国出现的许多分歧开始考验这种长期平衡的破裂点。今天,安卡拉和德黑兰正试图通过外交、军事和经济手段来更好地对抗对方。本文首先概述了土耳其与伊朗的关系,重点讨论了这两个行为体在南高加索和中亚之间的摩擦要点。该地区正经历一个关键时刻,发生了2020年纳戈尔诺-卡拉巴赫战争和美国从阿富汗撤军等重大事件。到目前为止,土耳其通过加强经济和外交存在以及建立军事合作,增加了其地区影响力。这一目标是通过突厥身份来实现的,这为安卡拉的地区战略提供了意识形态基础。另一方面,伊朗伊斯兰共和国正试图捍卫地区现状,以抵制自革命以来一直面临的遏制战略和国际孤立。伊朗,特别是在中东推行的“抵抗轴心”思想,在中亚和高加索地区几乎不存在,原因是俄罗斯因素、地区行为者对这种做法缺乏同情,以及该政权不愿改变其北部和东部边界的现状。除了安卡拉和德黑兰相互竞争的地区愿望外,在能源、贸易、安全和移民管理方面需要解决的几个双边问题使双方处于对立的一边。该研究声称,行为者的区域战略之间的不相容性增加到了他们在中东的竞争将扩大到中亚和高加索地区的程度。但与这一缓慢的进程形成对比的是,只有土耳其和伊朗的共同努力才能解决迫在眉睫的共同问题,这种必要性将抑制这种不相容对双边关系的损害。
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引用次数: 0
TRADE AND ECONOMIC COOPERATION BETWEEN CHINA AND KAZAKHSTAN: PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS 中哈经贸合作:问题与展望
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-09-27 DOI: 10.37178/ca-c.21.3.010
Tian Xie, R. Zharkynbayeva, G. Dadabayeva, L. Delovarova
The thirty years of Kazakhstan’s independence have been characterized by rapid growth of trade and economic cooperation with China, one of the world’s largest economies, which has steadily increased its presence in the region. Based on statistics published by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China and the National Bank of Kazakhstan, legal and regulatory documents of the two countries and reports by international organizations, this article examines the specific features and further prospects of bilateral cooperation between China and Kazakhstan in the field of trade, investment, and energy, as well as in implementing integration projects. The authors have identified the main stages of interaction between the two countries, the problems they encounter, and the opportunities for trade and economic cooperation, which has developed rapidly since the turn of the century. Objectively, this process is mutually beneficial for both sides, especially in the sphere of energy, promotion of infrastructure projects, establishment of joint ventures, and other long-term plans. However, despite the positive dynamics of this process, the article identifies a number of negative phenomena in trade and economic relations. Overall, trade declined because of the drop in oil prices and the resultant weakening of Kazakhstan’s national currency tenge, since oil is the basis of the country’s exports. At the same time, when trade indicators began to improve after 2017, some negative phenomena were still in evidence. They were primarily due to the consequences of the pandemic, an increase in Sinophobia, and Kazakhstan’s participation in new regional projects, such as the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). In the authors’ opinion, investment specifics and trade asymmetry are the main areas where both parties should adjust their approaches in order to tap the full potential of cooperation in these sectors.
哈萨克斯坦独立三十年的特点是与中国的贸易和经济合作快速增长,中国是世界上最大的经济体之一,在该地区的影响力稳步增加。根据中华人民共和国海关总署和哈萨克斯坦国家银行公布的统计数据、两国法律和监管文件以及国际组织的报告,本文探讨了中哈在贸易、投资、,以及执行一体化项目。作者确定了两国互动的主要阶段,他们遇到的问题,以及自世纪之交以来迅速发展的贸易和经济合作的机会。从客观上讲,这一过程对双方都是互利的,特别是在能源、基础设施项目的推进、合资企业的成立和其他长期计划方面。然而,尽管这一进程具有积极的动力,但文章指出了贸易和经济关系中的一些消极现象。总体而言,由于石油是该国出口的基础,石油价格下跌以及由此导致的哈萨克斯坦国家货币坚戈贬值导致贸易下降。与此同时,当贸易指标在2017年后开始改善时,一些负面现象仍然存在。这主要是由于疫情的后果、恐华症的增加以及哈萨克斯坦参与新的区域项目,如欧亚经济联盟(EAEU)。作者认为,投资细节和贸易不对称是双方应该调整方法的主要领域,以充分挖掘这些领域的合作潜力。
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引用次数: 0
ROLE OF CONSTITUTIONAL REFORMS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CENTRAL ASIAN COUNTRIES 宪政改革在中亚国家发展中的作用
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-09-27 DOI: 10.37178/ca-c.21.3.03
E. Garbuzarova
Since gaining independence in 1991, the Central Asian countries have embarked on state building with regard for the experience of developed countries. During the political modernization process, the countries of Central Asia heeded great attention to the constitution. The political elites in power have enshrined the separation of powers between the government branches in the basic law. At the same time, the institution of the president retained a special status in the state power system. This fact reflected the specifics of the development of new states, where the legislative body was absent or played an insignificant role for a prolonged time period. The president plays a major role in the political systems of the regional states (with the exception of Kyrgyzstan), which was manifested in his special status. As a result, a patron-client model has developed in the regional states, where the president acquires and maintains the loyalty of political elites through material incentives. Meanwhile, the regional countries were undergoing continuous constitutional reforms. The amendments to the fundamental law have been and are being used by the presidents of the Central Asian countries to maintain and reinforce their legitimacy. The need to solve this problem has increased in the context of a decline in economic growth and accumulated internal socio-economic problems. In 2020-2021, the coronavirus pandemic produced a negative impact. These challenges posed the task of implementing a new democratic transformation strategy for the executive authorities of the regional states, in particular, the expansion of powers in the legislative branch of government. At the present stage, a new balance of forces has emerged in Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, which involves a higher responsibility of the parliament and government for the implementation of socio-economic reforms. This afforded greater stability to the political regimes in these countries. In Tajikistan, a power centralization tendency has developed, and the position of the incumbent is being solidified. Hopes for carrying out structural economic reforms are pinned on the president. Kyrgyzstan has demonstrated a desire to develop parliamentarianism in order to prevent the development of authoritarian tendencies. However, the introduction of a parliamentary form of government did not lead to the solution of the country’s internal problems, primarily due to the continued enormous influence of informal institutions on the authorities. Major socio-economic problems faced by the Kyrgyz authorities in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic triggered another round of political tension in the country and ultimately led to a change of power and a transition to a presidential form of government. The changes introduced to the constitutions of the regional states create the appearance of the implementation of democratic principles and the use of procedures to improve the efficiency of the government. At the sa
中亚国家自1991年独立以来,在借鉴发达国家经验的基础上进行了国家建设。在政治现代化的进程中,中亚国家十分重视宪法问题。执政的政治精英将政府部门之间的权力分立庄严载入基本法。与此同时,总统制度在国家权力体系中保持着特殊的地位。这一事实反映了新州发展的具体情况,立法机构在很长一段时间内缺席或发挥着微不足道的作用。总统在该地区国家(吉尔吉斯斯坦除外)的政治制度中发挥着重要作用,这体现在他的特殊地位上。因此,在地区国家形成了一种庇护-客户模式,总统通过物质激励获得并维持政治精英的忠诚。与此同时,该区域各国正在进行不断的宪法改革。中亚各国总统过去和现在都在利用对基本法的修正来维持和加强其合法性。在经济增长下降和内部社会经济问题积累的背景下,解决这一问题的必要性增加了。2020-2021年,冠状病毒大流行产生了负面影响。这些挑战提出了为区域各国行政当局执行一项新的民主转型战略的任务,特别是扩大政府立法部门的权力。在目前阶段,土库曼斯坦、哈萨克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦出现了一种新的力量平衡,其中包括议会和政府对实施社会经济改革负有更高的责任。这为这些国家的政治制度提供了更大的稳定性。在塔吉克斯坦,权力集中的趋势已经形成,现任者的地位正在巩固。实施结构性经济改革的希望寄托在总统身上。吉尔吉斯斯坦表现出发展议会制的愿望,以防止专制倾向的发展。然而,引入议会形式的政府并没有导致解决该国的内部问题,主要原因是非正式机构对当局的持续巨大影响。在新冠肺炎大流行期间,吉尔吉斯斯坦当局面临的重大社会经济问题引发了该国又一轮政治紧张局势,并最终导致政权更迭和向总统制政府过渡。引入地区国家宪法的变化创造了民主原则的实施和程序的使用,以提高政府的效率。与此同时,体制变化破坏了社会政治稳定,为进一步的国家发展制造了问题。
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引用次数: 0
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Central Asia and the Caucasus
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