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Research on power plant security issues monitoring and fault detection using attention based LSTM model
Q2 Energy Pub Date : 2025-01-27 DOI: 10.1186/s42162-025-00473-0
Shengda Wang, Zeng Dou, Danni Liu, Han Xu, Ji Du

Overview

For Photo Voltaic (PV) arrays and Wind systems to operate as efficiently and effectively as possible, fault detection is essential. It is possible to improve the safety of renewable energy systems and guarantee that the service will continue uninterrupted if problem detection and diagnostics are performed in a timely and accurate manner. In general, wind power is one of the three major renewable energy sources, along with solar power and hydropower. Wind power is well distributed around the world, making it suitable to be exploited in human activities for the general welfare of society.

Objectives

A prototype security situational awareness system applicable to the power data communication network service and traffic model should be developed. This will help to successfully enhance the security and service quality of the power data communication network, effectively cope with network security threats in the new environment, and ensure the security of the power plant network access. The traffic of the main network of the existing data communication network will be combined and analyzed, and NQA traffic management algorithms will be studied and proposed. These actions will improve the SLA hierarchical service capability, the service quality of the core services carried by the backbone network, and strengthen the security capability of the new energy power plant communication network access system.

Methodology

For the purpose of this investigation, an attention-based long short-term memory (Att-LSTM) model was used for the categorization of time series actual data. The approach that has been developed is able to identify defects in photovoltaic arrays and inverters, which offers a dependable option for improving the efficiency and dependability of solar energy systems. For the purpose of evaluating the proposed method, a real-world solar energy dataset is used.

Results

The findings acquired from this evaluation are compared to the results received from existing detection approaches such as Cryptography, Intrusion Detection System (IDS) methods, and Network Defense Schemes. The results obtained demonstrate that the suggested method surpasses current fault detection techniques, providing greater accuracy and better performance.

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引用次数: 0
Low voltage user power internet of things monitoring system based on LoRa wireless technology
Q2 Energy Pub Date : 2025-01-27 DOI: 10.1186/s42162-025-00472-1
Xiao Wang, Wei Zhao, Xixian Niu

The operational efficiency of the current smart grid system is seriously affected by the stability of the operating system, and Internet of Things technology has good applicability in power grid information perception. This study uses LoRa technology to construct a monitoring system for the electric energy Internet of Things. Additionally, an optimization model based on a particle swarm optimization algorithm and backpropagation neural network for optimizing base station positioning and channel quality evaluation is proposed. In addition, a multi-channel adaptive frequency hopping technology has been developed. The experimental results showed that the adaptive frequency hopping technology of the system could complete frequency switching within 2 min, which was more efficient than the traditional sampling and statistical technology that took 4 min. In terms of coverage, the research method had a coverage radius of 25 km, which was superior to other communication technologies such as NB IoT and ZigBee. In terms of data transmission success rate, the research method achieved 98.11%, significantly higher than Sigfox’s 90.02%. In addition, the system had a latency of only 150ms and low power consumption. In summary, the PSO-BP LoRa model proposed in the study has high application value in smart grids and industrial environments, providing technical support for wide-area, low-power, and high-stability Internet of Things monitoring systems.

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引用次数: 0
Application of simulated annealing algorithm in multi-objective cooperative scheduling of load and storage of source network for load side of new power system 模拟退火算法在新型电力系统负荷侧源网负荷与存储多目标协同调度中的应用
Q2 Energy Pub Date : 2025-01-16 DOI: 10.1186/s42162-024-00452-x
Xinming Wang, Huayang Liang, Xiaobo Jia, Shihui Li, Shengyang Kang, Yan Gao

To improve the adaptability of grid load collaborative scheduling, a multi-objective collaborative scheduling method based on a simulated annealing algorithm for the load storage of grid loads on the load side of a new power system is proposed. Local bus transmission technology is adopted to collect the dynamic parameters of energy network load energy storage on the load side of the new power system. The collected load dynamic parameters are fused with energy distribution state parameters to extract the state characteristics of energy network load storage. The simulated annealing algorithm is adopted to realize the load characteristics fusion and adaptive scheduling processing of energy network on the load side of the power system, and the spectral characteristics of the load dynamic parameters are extracted. The dynamic scheduling method of simulated annealing is used to realize the multi-objective optimization of dynamic load of energy network. Based on the co-optimization results of simulated annealing, the optimization application of the simulated annealing algorithm in the multi-objective co-scheduling of loads and energy storage in a new power system is realized. The experimental results show that after 400 iterations, the control convergence accuracy of the proposed method reaches 0.980, which is significantly better than that of the comparison method, and performs well in terms of scheduling efficiency improvement, load scheduling stability, scheduling time and energy waste ratio, proving that the method has good multi-objective integration and strong optimization ability in the scheduling process, and improves the load balanced scheduling and adaptive control ability of the power system.

为提高电网负荷协同调度的适应性,提出了一种基于模拟退火算法的新型电力系统负荷侧电网负荷存储的多目标协同调度方法。采用本地母线传输技术采集新电力系统负荷侧电网负荷储能动态参数。将采集到的负荷动态参数与能量分布状态参数进行融合,提取出电网负荷存储的状态特征。采用模拟退火算法实现了电力系统负荷侧能源网络的负荷特征融合和自适应调度处理,提取了负荷动态参数的频谱特征。采用模拟退火的动态调度方法,实现了能源网络动态负荷的多目标优化。基于模拟退火的协同优化结果,实现了模拟退火算法在新型电力系统负荷与储能多目标协同调度中的优化应用。实验结果表明,经过400次迭代后,所提方法的控制收敛精度达到0.980,明显优于对比方法,并且在调度效率提升、负载调度稳定性、调度时间和能量浪费比等方面表现良好,证明该方法在调度过程中具有良好的多目标集成和较强的优化能力。提高了电力系统的负载均衡调度和自适应控制能力。
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引用次数: 0
Intelligent information systems for power grid fault analysis by computer communication technology 基于计算机通信技术的电网故障分析智能信息系统
Q2 Energy Pub Date : 2025-01-16 DOI: 10.1186/s42162-024-00465-6
Ronglong Xu, Jing Zhang

This study aims to enhance the intelligence level of power grid fault analysis to address increasingly complex fault scenarios and ensure grid stability and security. To this end, an intelligent information system for power grid fault analysis, leveraging improved computer communication technology, is proposed and developed. The system incorporates a novel fault diagnosis model, combining advanced communication technologies such as distributed computing, real-time data transmission, cloud computing, and big data analytics, to establish a multi-layered information processing architecture for grid fault analysis. Specifically, this study introduces a fusion model integrating Transformer self-attention mechanisms with graph neural networks (GNNs) based on conventional fault diagnosis techniques. GNNs capture the complex relationships between different nodes within the grid topology, effectively identifying power transmission characteristics and fault propagation paths across grid nodes. The Transformer’s self-attention mechanism processes time-series operational data from the grid, enabling precise identification of temporal dependencies in fault characteristics. To improve system response speed, edge computing moves portions of fault data preprocessing and analysis to edge nodes near data sources, significantly reducing transmission latency and enhancing real-time diagnosis capability. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model achieves superior diagnostic performance across various fault types (e.g., short circuits, overloads, equipment failures) in simulation scenarios. The system achieves a fault identification and location accuracy of 99.2%, an improvement of over 10% compared to traditional methods, with an average response time of 85 milliseconds, approximately 43% faster than existing technologies. Moreover, the system exhibits strong robustness in complex scenarios, with an average fault prediction error rate of just 1.1% across multiple simulations. This study provides a novel solution for intelligent power grid fault diagnosis and management, establishing a technological foundation for smart grid operations.

本研究旨在提高电网故障分析的智能化水平,以应对日益复杂的故障场景,保障电网的稳定与安全。为此,利用改进的计算机通信技术,提出并开发了电网故障分析智能信息系统。该系统采用新颖的故障诊断模型,结合分布式计算、实时数据传输、云计算、大数据分析等先进通信技术,建立了面向电网故障分析的多层次信息处理体系。具体而言,本文提出了一种基于传统故障诊断技术的变压器自关注机制与图神经网络的融合模型。gnn捕获网格拓扑中不同节点之间的复杂关系,有效识别电网节点间的电力传输特征和故障传播路径。Transformer的自关注机制处理来自电网的时间序列运行数据,从而能够精确识别故障特征中的时间依赖性。为了提高系统的响应速度,边缘计算将部分故障数据的预处理和分析工作转移到数据源附近的边缘节点,大大降低了传输延迟,增强了实时诊断能力。实验结果表明,该模型在各种故障类型(如短路、过载、设备故障)的仿真场景中具有优异的诊断性能。该系统实现了99.2%的故障识别和定位精度,与传统方法相比提高了10%以上,平均响应时间为85毫秒,比现有技术快了约43%。此外,该系统在复杂场景中表现出较强的鲁棒性,多次模拟的平均故障预测错误率仅为1.1%。本研究为电网智能故障诊断与管理提供了一种新的解决方案,为电网智能运行奠定了技术基础。
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引用次数: 0
Hierarchical quantitative prediction of photovoltaic power generation depreciation expense based on matrix task prioritization considering uncertainty risk 考虑不确定性风险的基于矩阵任务优先级的光伏发电折旧费用分层定量预测
Q2 Energy Pub Date : 2025-01-14 DOI: 10.1186/s42162-024-00456-7
Yinming Liu, Wengang Wang, Xiangyue Meng, Yuchen Zhang, Zhuyu Chen

In order to provide a reliable basis for the cost management of photovoltaic power generation, it is necessary to accurately predict the depreciation expense of photovoltaic power generation. Therefore, a hierarchical quantitative prediction method of photovoltaic power generation depreciation expense based on matrix task prioritization considering uncertain risks is proposed. Based on the conditional value-at-risk theory, a more comprehensive risk measure than VaR is provided, and the uncertainty risk value of photovoltaic power generation is calculated by considering the average loss exceeding this loss value. According to the calculated risk value, a double-layer photovoltaic power generation cost planning model is constructed, the upper and lower objective functions of the model are determined, and the constraint conditions are designed; Obtain a cost planning objective function solution base on a matrix task prioritization method, and generating a prioritization table; Prediction of photovoltaic power generation depreciation expense based on long-short memory neural network for each solution in the sorting table. In practical application, the test results show that this method can complete the risk quantitative analysis of uncertain factors, and the tracking ability and fitting degree of prediction are good; An ordered list of solutions of each objective function can be generated; The method in this paper is used to predict the depreciation expense of photovoltaic power generation in the first 10 solutions of priority ranking, and the maximum deviation of the prediction result is -0.65 million yuan.

为了给光伏发电的成本管理提供可靠的依据,有必要对光伏发电的折旧费用进行准确的预测。为此,提出了一种考虑不确定风险的基于矩阵任务优先级的光伏发电折旧费用分层定量预测方法。基于条件风险值理论,给出了比VaR更全面的风险度量,并考虑超过该损失值的平均损失计算光伏发电的不确定性风险值。根据计算出的风险值,构建双层光伏发电成本规划模型,确定模型的上、下目标函数,设计约束条件;基于矩阵任务优先排序法得到成本规划目标函数解,并生成优先排序表;基于长短记忆神经网络的光伏发电折旧费用排序表各方案预测在实际应用中,试验结果表明,该方法能够完成不确定因素的风险定量分析,预测的跟踪能力和拟合程度较好;可以生成每个目标函数解的有序列表;采用本文方法对优先级排序前10个方案的光伏发电折旧费用进行预测,预测结果的最大偏差为- 65万元。
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引用次数: 0
Transmission line trip faults under extreme snow and ice conditions: a case study 极端冰雪条件下输电线路跳闸故障:案例研究
Q2 Energy Pub Date : 2025-01-13 DOI: 10.1186/s42162-024-00463-8
Guojun Zhang

Extreme weather events, particularly snow and ice storms, present significant threats to the stability and reliability of high-voltage transmission lines, leading to substantial disruptions in power supply. This study delves into the causes and consequences of transmission line trip faults that occur under severe winter conditions, with a focused case study in Inner Mongolia—an area frequently impacted by snow and ice hazards. By systematically analyzing field data collected during critical periods of ice accumulation, this research identifies and examines key factors contributing to faults, such as conductor galloping, insulator degradation, and structural fatigue. These issues are often exacerbated by prolonged exposure to low temperatures and high wind speeds, which further compromise the integrity of transmission infrastructure. In addition to field observations, comprehensive testing of the affected insulators and components reveals mechanical and electrical vulnerabilities that play a significant role in the occurrence of trip faults. To combat these challenges, the paper proposes a series of mitigation and prevention strategies. These include enhancing design specifications to ensure resilience against increased ice and wind loads, deploying real-time monitoring systems capable of detecting early indicators of conductor galloping and ice accumulation, and employing advanced de-icing technologies to reduce the risk of ice-related failures. Moreover, the integration of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and artificial intelligence (AI)-based fault detection tools presents promising opportunities for improving remote monitoring capabilities and enabling proactive maintenance interventions. By leveraging these innovative technologies, the resilience of transmission lines in harsh climates can be significantly enhanced. The findings of this study not only provide a comprehensive framework for minimizing the impact of extreme weather on transmission infrastructure but also contribute valuable insights toward fostering a more reliable and resilient power grid capable of withstanding the challenges posed by an increasingly volatile climate.

极端天气事件,特别是冰雪风暴,对高压输电线路的稳定性和可靠性构成重大威胁,导致电力供应严重中断。本文以内蒙古为研究对象,探讨了在严冬条件下发生的输电线路跳闸故障的原因和后果,内蒙古是一个经常受到冰雪灾害影响的地区。通过系统分析在积冰关键时期收集的现场数据,本研究确定并检查了导致故障的关键因素,如导体跳动、绝缘体退化和结构疲劳。这些问题往往因长期暴露在低温和高风速下而加剧,这进一步损害了输电基础设施的完整性。除了现场观察外,对受影响的绝缘体和组件进行了全面测试,揭示了在跳闸故障发生中起重要作用的机械和电气漏洞。为了应对这些挑战,本文提出了一系列缓解和预防策略。这些措施包括加强设计规范,以确保抵御不断增加的冰和风荷载,部署能够检测导体跳动和积冰早期指标的实时监控系统,以及采用先进的除冰技术来降低与冰有关的故障风险。此外,无人机(uav)和基于人工智能(AI)的故障检测工具的集成为提高远程监控能力和实现主动维护干预提供了有希望的机会。通过利用这些创新技术,可以显著提高输电线路在恶劣气候条件下的弹性。这项研究的结果不仅为最大限度地减少极端天气对输电基础设施的影响提供了一个全面的框架,而且还为培养一个更可靠、更有弹性的电网提供了宝贵的见解,使其能够承受日益动荡的气候带来的挑战。
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引用次数: 0
A photovoltaic power ultra short-term prediction method integrating Hungarian clustering and PSO algorithm 结合匈牙利聚类和粒子群算法的光伏超短期预测方法
Q2 Energy Pub Date : 2025-01-08 DOI: 10.1186/s42162-024-00466-5
Ting Wang

In response to the problem of low prediction accuracy in ultra short-term prediction of photovoltaic power, this study combines Hungarian clustering analysis and particle swarm optimization variational mode decomposition algorithm to construct a photovoltaic power ultra short-term forecasting model, to analyze data in depth and improve prediction accuracy. The experiment outcomes show that the Hungarian algorithm performs well in integrating single clustering results and effectively improves the problem of atypical classification. In addition, the clustering ensemble model shows significant improvement compared to other models on the Calinski-Harabasz index, and effectively reduces the overlap between clusters on the Davies-Bouldin index, improving the overall quality of clustering. Under different weather conditions, the convergence accuracy and speed of the multiverse optimization support vector machine, multiverse optimization support vector machine, and particle swarm optimization variational mode decomposition algorithms each have their own advantages, but the particle swarm optimization variational mode decomposition algorithm performs better. In addition, the Hungarian clustering model has high stability in predicting errors, with average absolute error and average relative error lower than BP and RBF models. The maximum absolute error and maximum relative error are reduced, indicating the effectiveness and predictive advantage of the proposed Hungarian clustering ensemble model in predicting photovoltaic power.

针对光伏超短期电量预测精度低的问题,本研究结合匈牙利聚类分析和粒子群优化变分模态分解算法,构建光伏超短期电量预测模型,对数据进行深度分析,提高预测精度。实验结果表明,匈牙利算法在单聚类结果整合方面表现良好,有效改善了非典型分类问题。此外,聚类集成模型在Calinski-Harabasz指数上比其他模型有显著的改进,并且在Davies-Bouldin指数上有效地减少了聚类之间的重叠,提高了聚类的整体质量。在不同天气条件下,多元宇宙优化支持向量机、多元宇宙优化支持向量机和粒子群优化变分模态分解算法的收敛精度和速度各有优势,但粒子群优化变分模态分解算法表现更好。此外,匈牙利聚类模型在预测误差方面具有较高的稳定性,其平均绝对误差和平均相对误差均低于BP和RBF模型。最大绝对误差和最大相对误差均减小,表明匈牙利聚类集成模型在光伏发电预测中的有效性和预测优势。
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引用次数: 0
Optimization of power system load forecasting and scheduling based on artificial neural networks 基于人工神经网络的电力系统负荷预测与调度优化
Q2 Energy Pub Date : 2025-01-08 DOI: 10.1186/s42162-024-00467-4
Jiangbo Jing, Hongyu Di, Ting Wang, Ning Jiang, Zhaoyang Xiang

This study seeks to enhance the accuracy and economic efficiency of power system load forecasting (PSLF) by leveraging Artificial Neural Networks. A predictive model based on a Residual Connection Bidirectional Long Short Term Memory Attention mechanism (RBiLSTM-AM) is proposed. In this model, normalized power load time series data is used as input, with the Bidirectional Long and Short Term Memory network capturing the bidirectional dependencies of the time series and the residual connections preventing gradient vanishing. Subsequently, an attention mechanism is applied to capture the influence of significant time steps, thereby improving prediction accuracy. Based on the load forecasting, a Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm is employed to quickly determine the optimal scheduling strategy, ensuring the economic efficiency and safety of the power system. Results show that the proposed RBiLSTM-AM achieves an accuracy of 96.68%, precision of 91.56%, recall of 90.51%, and an F1-score of 91.37%, significantly outperforming other models (e.g., the Recurrent Neural Network model, which has an accuracy of 69.94%). In terms of error metrics, the RBiLSTM-AM model reduces the root mean square error to 123.70 kW, mean absolute error to 104.44 kW, and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) to 5.62%, all of which are lower than those of other models. Economic cost analysis further demonstrates that the PSO scheduling strategy achieves significantly lower costs at most time points compared to the Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Simulated Annealing (SA) strategies, with the cost being 689.17 USD in the first hour and 2214.03 USD in the fourth hour, both lower than those of GA and SA. Therefore, the proposed RBiLSTM-AM model and PSO scheduling strategy demonstrate significant accuracy and economic benefits in PSLF, providing effective technical support for optimizing power system scheduling.

本研究旨在利用人工神经网络来提高电力系统负荷预测的准确性和经济效率。提出了一种基于残余连接双向长短期记忆注意机制的预测模型。该模型采用归一化的电力负荷时间序列数据作为输入,双向长短期记忆网络捕捉时间序列的双向依赖关系,残差连接防止梯度消失。随后,采用注意机制捕捉显著时间步长的影响,从而提高预测精度。在负荷预测的基础上,采用粒子群优化算法(PSO)快速确定最优调度策略,保证了电力系统的经济性和安全性。结果表明,RBiLSTM-AM的准确率为96.68%,精密度为91.56%,召回率为90.51%,f1分数为91.37%,显著优于其他模型(如递归神经网络模型,准确率为69.94%)。在误差指标方面,RBiLSTM-AM模型的均方根误差降至123.70 kW,平均绝对误差降至104.44 kW,平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)降至5.62%,均低于其他模型。经济成本分析进一步表明,与遗传算法(GA)和模拟退火(SA)策略相比,PSO调度策略在大多数时间点上的成本显著降低,第一个小时的成本为689.17美元,第四个小时的成本为2214.03美元,均低于遗传算法和模拟退火策略。因此,所提出的RBiLSTM-AM模型和PSO调度策略在PSLF中具有显著的准确性和经济效益,为优化电力系统调度提供了有效的技术支持。
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引用次数: 0
Arrears behavior prediction of power users based on BP neural network and multi-scale feature learning: a refined risk assessment framework 基于BP神经网络和多尺度特征学习的电力用户拖欠行为预测:一种改进的风险评估框架
Q2 Energy Pub Date : 2025-01-07 DOI: 10.1186/s42162-024-00441-0
Liang Yu, Yuanshen Hong, Hua Lin, Xu Jiang, Song Ziming

This study aims to develop an efficient model to predict the arrears behavior of electricity users by integrating multi-scale feature learning with a backpropagation (BP) neural network. The goal is to provide accurate early warning systems and enhanced risk management tools for power companies. The BP neural network algorithm adjusts weights to minimize prediction errors, while multi-scale feature learning captures the diversity and regularity of user behavior by extracting data from various time dimensions, such as daily, weekly, and monthly intervals. First, electricity usage and weather data from the UMass Smart Dataset are preprocessed, including steps such as data cleaning, standardization, and normalization. Next, features are extracted across three time scales—daily, weekly, and monthly. These features are then input into the BP neural network model using the multi-scale feature learning method. A hierarchical neural network structure is designed to address the characteristics of different scales in distinct layers. Key model parameters are optimized, and a sensitivity analysis is conducted. The experimental results demonstrate that the BP neural network model incorporating multi-scale features outperforms traditional BP neural network models and other control models in several evaluation metrics. Specifically, the Gini coefficient is 0.55, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic is 0.60, the Matthews correlation coefficient is 0.45, and specificity is 0.82. These results indicate that the proposed method offers significant improvements in capturing user behavior patterns and enhancing prediction accuracy. The study concludes that the effective fusion of multi-scale features not only enhances the model’s prediction performance but also strengthens its generalization ability. This method provides an advanced risk management tool for power companies, helping to increase the operational efficiency of smart grids and encouraging further research toward greater intelligence in the field.

本研究旨在将多尺度特征学习与反向传播(BP)神经网络相结合,建立一种高效的电力用户拖欠行为预测模型。目标是为电力公司提供准确的预警系统和增强的风险管理工具。BP神经网络算法调整权重以最小化预测误差,而多尺度特征学习通过从不同时间维度(如每日、每周和每月间隔)提取数据来捕获用户行为的多样性和规律性。首先,对来自马萨诸塞大学智能数据集的用电量和天气数据进行预处理,包括数据清理、标准化和规范化等步骤。接下来,在三个时间尺度(每日、每周和每月)中提取特征。然后使用多尺度特征学习方法将这些特征输入到BP神经网络模型中。设计了一种分层神经网络结构,以解决不同层中不同尺度的特征。对关键模型参数进行了优化,并进行了灵敏度分析。实验结果表明,结合多尺度特征的BP神经网络模型在多个评价指标上优于传统BP神经网络模型和其他控制模型。其中基尼系数为0.55,Kolmogorov-Smirnov统计量为0.60,Matthews相关系数为0.45,特异性为0.82。这些结果表明,该方法在捕获用户行为模式和提高预测精度方面有显著的改进。研究表明,多尺度特征的有效融合不仅提高了模型的预测性能,而且增强了模型的泛化能力。这种方法为电力公司提供了一种先进的风险管理工具,有助于提高智能电网的运行效率,并鼓励在该领域进一步研究更大的智能化。
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引用次数: 0
Capacity planning for hydro-wind-photovoltaic-storage systems considering high-dimensional uncertainties 考虑高维不确定性的水电-风电-光伏-储能系统容量规划
Q2 Energy Pub Date : 2025-01-06 DOI: 10.1186/s42162-024-00462-9
Xiongwei Li, Jintao Song, Yuquan Ma, Ziqi Zhu, Hongxu Liu, Chuxi Wei

The rapid development of renewable energy has made hydropower’s role as a flexible resource increasingly important in power systems. However, hydropower generation capability highly depends on water inflows, particularly during dry seasons, making it difficult to independently meet growing load demands. The application of hydro-wind-photovoltaic-storage systems offers a promising solution, yet faces challenges from the high-dimensional uncertainties in natural conditions. This paper proposes a capacity planning method that considers high-dimensional uncertainties characterized by spatiotemporal correlations of natural factors. Firstly, a scenario generation method based on the transition probability matrix and C-Vine Copula model is developed. The constructed scenario sets capture the temporal correlations of natural conditions and spatial correlations between different parameters. Secondly, a bi-level optimization model for capacity planning is established. The upper level minimizes the deviation of operational cost and grid supply revenue to determine optimal capacity allocation, while the lower level optimizes both economic and safe objectives for operational dispatch. The normal boundary intersection method is employed to obtain Pareto front solutions that balance economy and safety. Different case studies are conducted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Compared with the fixed ratio and variable ratio capacity allocation strategies without uncertainty, the optimal total system cost is reduced by 2.90% and 3.88%, respectively.

随着可再生能源的快速发展,水电作为一种灵活的资源在电力系统中的作用越来越重要。然而,水力发电能力高度依赖于水流入,特别是在旱季,这使得难以独立满足日益增长的负荷需求。水力-风力-光伏-储能系统的应用提供了一种很有前景的解决方案,但也面临着自然条件下高维不确定性的挑战。提出了一种考虑自然因素时空相关性特征的高维不确定性的容量规划方法。首先,提出了一种基于转移概率矩阵和C-Vine Copula模型的场景生成方法。构建的场景集捕获自然条件的时间相关性和不同参数之间的空间相关性。其次,建立了容量规划的双层优化模型。上层通过最小化运行成本和电网供应收益的偏差来确定最优的容量分配,下层通过优化运行调度的经济和安全目标。采用法向边界相交法,得到兼顾经济性和安全性的Pareto前解。通过不同的案例研究来验证所提出方法的有效性。与无不确定性的固定比例和可变比例容量分配策略相比,最优系统总成本分别降低2.90%和3.88%。
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Energy Informatics
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