Energy Informatics最新文献

Accurate crude oil price forecasting is crucial for various economic activities, including energy trading, risk management, and investment planning. Although deep learning models have emerged as powerful tools for crude oil price forecasting, achieving accurate forecasts remains challenging. Deep learning models’ performance is heavily influenced by hyperparameters tuning, and they are expected to perform differently under various circumstances. Furthermore, price volatility is also sensitive to external factors such as world events. To address these limitations, we propose a hybrid approach that integrates metaheuristic optimisation with an ensemble of five widely used neural network architectures for time series forecasting. Unlike existing methods that apply metaheuristics to optimise hyperparameters within the neural network architecture, we exploit the GWO metaheuristic optimiser at four levels: feature selection, data preparation, model training, and forecast blending. The proposed approach has been evaluated for forecasting three-ahead days using real-world Brent crude oil price data, and the obtained results demonstrate that the proposed approach improves the forecasting performance measured using various benchmarks, achieving 0.000127 of MSE.

The composite cylindrical wind turbine foundation is characterized by its large-diameter cylindrical base, which offers superior anti-overturning capability, and it is widely used in the soft soil seabed of Jiangsu, China. Due to its complex structural form, the local scour under combined waves and current significantly differs from that of monopile foundations. However, research on the scour characteristics specific to composite cylindrical wind turbine foundations remains scarce. A numerical model for local scour of wind turbine foundations was established in this study, which was verified with the field-measured scour data. A series of numerical simulations of local scour depths for composite cylindrical wind turbine foundations under various water depths and wave-current combinations were conducted. The simulation results indicate that the wake vortex shedding caused by the complex structural form leads to the local scour around the composite cylindrical wind turbine foundation; the normalized scour depth increases with the Keulegan-Carpenter number and the relative current strength; when the relative current strength is greater than 0.6, the influence of the Keulegan-Carpenter number on scour depth tends to be weakened; similarly, as the Keulegan-Carpenter number increases, the effect of the relative current strength on scour depth gradually diminishes. A scour equation of the composite cylindrical wind turbine foundation is suggested to predict the local scour in fine sand bed under waves and current.

With the increasing complexity of the distribution network, the proportion of abnormal data in the monitoring data of the distribution network and its daily work is extremely low. Traditional clustering analysis methods are difficult to effectively solve the imbalance problem. Therefore, this paper introduces the influence parameters that can adaptively adjust the cluster center of local samples in the boundary area, and improves the cluster center update formula, and proposes a method of distribution network operation state evaluation based on the local blur measurement of the boundary region. The research results found that the five evaluation indicators of the proposed algorithm were 112, 0, 2, 26, and 5, respectively, all of which were superior to the comparison algorithms. The research results showed that the cluster center update optimization method based on local fuzzy measure in boundary region could effectively reduce the negative impact of the edge region occupied by most clusters on its clustering effect, so that the cluster center was always in an ideal position. At the same time, the example results showed that the research method had a risk prediction of 0.91 for power outage networks, which was close to the real situation and had high accuracy. It can provide reference for the operation and maintenance work of power grid personnel, eliminate hidden dangers in advance, and ensure the safe operation of the power grid.

This study aims to advance the development of the active distribution network (ADN) by optimizing resource allocation across different stages to enhance overall system performance and economic benefits. First, an ADN optimization model is constructed based on a two-stage robust optimization approach. The first stage focuses on determining optimal decision variables within the uncertainty set, while the second stage adjusts control variables based on the initial stage decisions. This model effectively addresses source-load uncertainties while preserving the flexibility and adaptability of decision-making solutions. Additionally, this study explores uncertainty models that incorporate correlation factors. The IEEE33-node model is employed to validate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed optimization strategy through numerical simulations. Simulation results demonstrate that Model 3 comprehensively accounts for photovoltaic and wind turbine generator planning by optimizing their capacity configurations, leading to a 23% increase in distributed generation (DG) penetration. During high-load periods (e.g., 13:00 and 16:00), DG output reaches 47% and 50% of the demand load, underscoring the critical role of DG in supporting the power grid during peak hours. Overall, the proposed two-stage optimization strategy considers source-load uncertainties, significantly reducing economic costs, enhancing DG output, and improving overall system performance. In scenarios with correlated uncertainties, the optimized results exhibit greater accuracy and reliability, providing robust support for the planning and operation of practical distribution networks.

The transformation of the energy system towards sustainable energy sources is characterized by an increase in weather dependent distributed energy resources (DER). This adds a layer of uncertainty in energy generation on top of already uncertain load distribution. At the same time, many households are fitted with renewable generation units and storage systems. The increased intermittent generation in the distribution grid leads to new challenges for the commitment and economic dispatch of DER. The main challenge addressed in this work is to decide which available resources to select for a given task. To solve this, we introduce Stochastic Resource Optimization (SRO), a general purpose, combinatorial, chance-constrained optimization model for the short-term economic selection of stochastic DER. It incorporates correlations between stochastic resources are using copula theory. The contributions of this paper are twofold: First, we validate the applicability of the SRO formulation on a simplified congestion management use-case in a small neighbourhood grid comprised of prosumer households. Second, we provide an analysis of the performance of different solving algorithms for SRO problems and their run-times. Our results show that a fast metaheuristic algorithm can provide high quality solutions in acceptable time on the evaluated problem sets.

Aiming at the frequency instability caused by insufficient energy in microgrids and the low willingness of grid source and load storage to participate in optimization, a microgrid source and load storage energy minimization method based on an improved competitive deep Q network algorithm and digital twin is proposed. We have constructed a basic framework structure for the coordinated operation of source grid load and energy storage, and analyzed the modules on the power supply side, grid side, load side, and energy storage side. Under the improved competitive deep Q network algorithm, modifications were made to the energy storage of microgrid loads. Based on the processing results, the objective function for optimizing microgrid source load energy storage is constructed using digital twin technology, and the optimization of the objective function is achieved to solve the optimization objective function for microgrid source load energy storage and complete the optimization of microgrid source load energy storage. The experimental results show that this method can control the distortion rate within 5.12%, with frequency fluctuations around 50.0 Hz, and relatively good MSE, MAE, and R2 values. This method can effectively control frequency fluctuations and has a good effect on optimizing energy storage for microgrid power sources and loads.

A BP neural network incorporated regression forecast technique based upon fragment swarm optimization (PSO) is proposed to design the state of crucial components of wind turbine so regarding realize mistake identification and detection. Firstly, specification recognition is carried out on the collection and tracking information of the system, and parameters connected to fault detection are extracted. Then, the residual optimization issue is made use of to establish the forecast model of nonlinear state evaluation and semantic network combination, and the gearbox temperature level or generator bearing are input as criteria right into the semantic network combination model and single model specifically, and the precision of the design is mirrored by the examination index. Lastly, BP design and PSO-BP combined forecast model are developed respectively by using the actual operation data of wind ranch SCADA, and the mistake state is evaluated according to whether the anticipated residual exceeds the set threshold, so regarding keep an eye on the temperature level of wind turbine transmission and generator bearing. By contrasting the data videotaped prior to and after the failing and making the information prediction analysis, the speculative results show that the forecast model established in this paper is viable for the device element fault detection.

In the context of global energy transformation, the construction of smart grids is becoming a novel vogue in the evolution of power systems. As the core node of the smart grid, the efficient operation of the intelligent substation relay protection system is essential to the safety and stability of the power system. However, with the expansion of power grid-scale and complexity, traditional relay protection systems need help with fault diagnosis accuracy and response speed. This study proposes a fault diagnosis scheme of an intelligent substation relay protection system based on Transformer architecture and migration training model, aiming at improving the intelligent level of fault diagnosis. By introducing the Transformer architecture, the model can efficiently process high-dimensional and nonlinear complex data of substations, significantly improving the accuracy of fault pattern recognition from 82% of the original model to 96%, and the response speed is also increased by 30%. At the same time, using transfer learning technology, the adaptability and generalization capabilities of the model in new scenarios have been significantly enhanced, reducing the dependence on a large amount of new data and accelerating the deployment of the model among different substations. The experimental results show that this scheme can quickly and accurately identify various fault types and effectively locate fault points. This study not only promotes the development of intelligent technology for power systems but also lays a solid foundation for the safe and stable operation of smart grids and the sustainable development of the power industry.

Energy consumption in the building sector is about 40% of total energy consumed globally and is trending upwards, along with its contribution to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Given the adverse impacts of GHG emissions, it is crucial to integrate energy efficiency into building designs. The most significant opportunities for enhancing energy performance are present during the initial phases of building design, when there is less impact of other design constraints. Various tools exist for simulating different design options and providing feedback in terms of energy consumption and comfort parameters. These simulation outputs must then be analyzed to derive design solutions. This paper presents an innovative approach that utilizes user input parameters, processes them through cloud computing, and outputs easily understandable strategies for energy-efficient building design. The methodology employs Asynchronous Distributed Task Queues (DTQ) - a more scalable and reliable alternative to conventional speedup techniques-for conducting parametric energy simulations in the cloud. The goal of this approach is to assist design teams in identifying, visualizing, and prioritizing energy-saving design strategies from a range of possible solutions for each project. Furthermore, a tool ‘eDOT’ has been developed utilizing the discussed methodology. Unlike existing tools, eDOT leverages artificial intelligence to dynamically generate and provide design strategies during the early phases of design process. By simplifying the simulation process, eDOT enables design teams to make informed, data-driven decisions without needing to interpret complex simulation outputs. A case study simulated for two locations is provided in this paper to demonstrate the effectiveness of eDOT, further underscoring its practical impact on energy-efficient building design.

The purpose of this paper is to improve the fault early warning effect of smart grid equipment through multi-sensor information fusion technology. Therefore, based on the analytical model of power grid fault diagnosis, this paper considers the influence of distributed generation in distribution network on fault diagnosis, as well as the misoperation or refusal of protection and switch, and the false alarm or leakage of alarm signal. At the same time, in order to display the results of fault diagnosis accurately and intuitively, an analytical model of fault diagnosis of distribution network based on multi-source information fusion is proposed. Finally, this paper verifies the effectiveness of this method through an example application. This article uses the PEDL dataset for experimental research, Through the comparison of fault data, it can be seen that compared with existing methods, the method proposed in this paper achieves the highest goodness of fit for warning, indicating the best fault warning effect.When there is enough training set, the prediction accuracy of the fault set can reach over 99%, Based on experimental analysis, it can be concluded that the proposed power grid equipment model has higher accuracy and reliability compared to traditional models. And the model in this article integrates the real-time monitoring function of power grid equipment and the equipment fault warning function, which improves the practicality of the power grid equipment monitoring system.