首页 > 最新文献

Energy Informatics最新文献

英文 中文
AI-Supported spherical fuzzy decision-making for barriers to renewable energy projects in hospitals: Comparative country analysis 医院可再生能源项目障碍的人工智能支持球形模糊决策:比较国家分析
Q2 Energy Pub Date : 2025-10-09 DOI: 10.1186/s42162-025-00577-7
Sefer Aygün, Yeter Demir Uslu, Hasan Dinçer, Yaşar Gökapl, Serkan Eti, Serhat Yüksel, Erman Gedikli

The purpose of this study is to determine the most important barriers for the improvements of the renewable energy projects in the hospitals. Within this context, a novel artificial intelligence-based fuzzy decision-making model is created. In the first stage, selected barriers are weighted by using artificial intelligence-based Spherical fuzzy CRITIC methodology. In the next process, emerging seven countries are ranked via Spherical fuzzy MAIRCA. An important novelty of the study is the integration of the CRITIC and MAIRCA methodologies with artificial intelligence. Owing to this situation, the weights of experts can be identified based on their qualification. This situation contributes to a more accurate analysis. The findings demonstrate that the most important factor in clean energy projects is operating costs. Similarly, technology and operational infrastructure factor also has an important impact on this situation. On the other side, the ranking results show that the most successful countries in clean energy projects in hospitals are Russia and China. India and Mexico are the last ranks in this regard. To increase the efficiency of projects, systems and equipment need to be analyzed regularly. In this context, the use of current technologies for renewable energy applications allows efficiency to be increased.

本研究的目的是确定医院可再生能源项目改进的最重要障碍。在此背景下,建立了一种基于人工智能的模糊决策模型。在第一阶段,采用基于人工智能的球形模糊评价方法对选定的障碍进行加权。在接下来的过程中,新兴的七个国家通过球面模糊MAIRCA进行排名。该研究的一个重要新颖之处在于将CRITIC和MAIRCA方法与人工智能相结合。由于这种情况,专家的权重可以根据他们的资格来确定。这种情况有助于进行更准确的分析。研究结果表明,清洁能源项目中最重要的因素是运营成本。同样,技术和运营基础设施因素也对这一情况产生重要影响。另一方面,排名结果显示,在医院清洁能源项目方面最成功的国家是俄罗斯和中国。印度和墨西哥在这方面排名最后。为了提高项目的效率,系统和设备需要定期分析。在这方面,将现有技术用于可再生能源的应用可以提高效率。
{"title":"AI-Supported spherical fuzzy decision-making for barriers to renewable energy projects in hospitals: Comparative country analysis","authors":"Sefer Aygün,&nbsp;Yeter Demir Uslu,&nbsp;Hasan Dinçer,&nbsp;Yaşar Gökapl,&nbsp;Serkan Eti,&nbsp;Serhat Yüksel,&nbsp;Erman Gedikli","doi":"10.1186/s42162-025-00577-7","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s42162-025-00577-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The purpose of this study is to determine the most important barriers for the improvements of the renewable energy projects in the hospitals. Within this context, a novel artificial intelligence-based fuzzy decision-making model is created. In the first stage, selected barriers are weighted by using artificial intelligence-based Spherical fuzzy CRITIC methodology. In the next process, emerging seven countries are ranked via Spherical fuzzy MAIRCA. An important novelty of the study is the integration of the CRITIC and MAIRCA methodologies with artificial intelligence. Owing to this situation, the weights of experts can be identified based on their qualification. This situation contributes to a more accurate analysis. The findings demonstrate that the most important factor in clean energy projects is operating costs. Similarly, technology and operational infrastructure factor also has an important impact on this situation. On the other side, the ranking results show that the most successful countries in clean energy projects in hospitals are Russia and China. India and Mexico are the last ranks in this regard. To increase the efficiency of projects, systems and equipment need to be analyzed regularly. In this context, the use of current technologies for renewable energy applications allows efficiency to be increased.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":538,"journal":{"name":"Energy Informatics","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://energyinformatics.springeropen.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s42162-025-00577-7","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145256436","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Efficient unmanned aerial vehicle inspection and management of transmission lines in modern electric power enterprises 现代电力企业输电线路的高效无人机巡检与管理
Q2 Energy Pub Date : 2025-09-26 DOI: 10.1186/s42162-025-00575-9
Hongzhi Gao, Dekyi Dekyi, Metok Metok

This study intends to address the issues of low recognition accuracy, delayed response, and insufficient efficiency of multi machine collaboration in unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) inspections of transmission lines in extreme environments. Thus, the study proposes an intelligent operation and inspection framework that integrates multimodal perception, deep reinforcement learning, and dynamic scheduling, which is divided into three stages. In the first stage, this study proposes an UAV hardware system integrating Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), infrared thermal imagers, and high-resolution visual sensors to enhance data collection efficiency. In the second stage, this study then presents a Transformer-based multimodal data fusion algorithm to improve defect recognition accuracy and robustness. It also uses a deep reinforcement learning algorithm for dynamic path planning to optimize UAV inspection routes, thereby enhancing inspection coverage and energy efficiency. In the third stage, a dynamic task allocation and resource scheduling model combining Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) and heuristic rules is proposed to achieve real-time task allocation and resource optimization for multi-UAV collaborative inspection. Experimental results show that this method achieves an F1-score of 89.8% for defect recognition in extreme environments (improved by 11% compared with TransPathNet), shortens emergency response time to 45 s (improved by 28.6% compared with PPO-MultiDrone (Proximal Policy Optimization-Multi-Drone)), increases inspection coverage to 98.7% (improved by 10.7% compared with PPO-MultiDrone), reduces energy consumption by 28.4%, and achieves task completion rate and resource utilization rate of 95.6% and 91.5% respectively (Improved by 8.4% and 16.0% respectively compared to the optimal baseline Genetic Algorithm-Mask Region-based Convolutional Neural Network). This study provides a reference method for the further development of power Internet of Things defect detection.

针对极端环境下无人机对输电线路检测中存在的识别精度低、响应滞后、多机协同工作效率低等问题,开展了研究。为此,本研究提出了一个集多模态感知、深度强化学习和动态调度于一体的智能运检框架,该框架分为三个阶段。在第一阶段,本研究提出了一种集成光探测与测距(LiDAR)、红外热成像仪和高分辨率视觉传感器的无人机硬件系统,以提高数据采集效率。在第二阶段,本文提出了一种基于transformer的多模态数据融合算法,以提高缺陷识别的准确性和鲁棒性。采用深度强化学习算法进行动态路径规划,优化无人机巡检路线,提高巡检覆盖率和能效。第三阶段,提出了混合整数规划(MIP)和启发式规则相结合的动态任务分配和资源调度模型,实现多无人机协同巡检的实时任务分配和资源优化。实验结果表明,该方法在极端环境下缺陷识别的f1得分为89.8%(与TransPathNet相比提高了11%),将应急响应时间缩短至45 s(与PPO-MultiDrone (Proximal Policy Optimization-Multi-Drone)相比提高了28.6%),将检测覆盖率提高至98.7%(与PPO-MultiDrone相比提高了10.7%),降低了28.4%的能耗。任务完成率和资源利用率分别达到95.6%和91.5%(较最优基线遗传算法- mask区域卷积神经网络分别提高8.4%和16.0%)。本研究为电力物联网缺陷检测的进一步发展提供了参考方法。
{"title":"Efficient unmanned aerial vehicle inspection and management of transmission lines in modern electric power enterprises","authors":"Hongzhi Gao,&nbsp;Dekyi Dekyi,&nbsp;Metok Metok","doi":"10.1186/s42162-025-00575-9","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s42162-025-00575-9","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study intends to address the issues of low recognition accuracy, delayed response, and insufficient efficiency of multi machine collaboration in unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) inspections of transmission lines in extreme environments. Thus, the study proposes an intelligent operation and inspection framework that integrates multimodal perception, deep reinforcement learning, and dynamic scheduling, which is divided into three stages. In the first stage, this study proposes an UAV hardware system integrating Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), infrared thermal imagers, and high-resolution visual sensors to enhance data collection efficiency. In the second stage, this study then presents a Transformer-based multimodal data fusion algorithm to improve defect recognition accuracy and robustness. It also uses a deep reinforcement learning algorithm for dynamic path planning to optimize UAV inspection routes, thereby enhancing inspection coverage and energy efficiency. In the third stage, a dynamic task allocation and resource scheduling model combining Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) and heuristic rules is proposed to achieve real-time task allocation and resource optimization for multi-UAV collaborative inspection. Experimental results show that this method achieves an F1-score of 89.8% for defect recognition in extreme environments (improved by 11% compared with TransPathNet), shortens emergency response time to 45 s (improved by 28.6% compared with PPO-MultiDrone (Proximal Policy Optimization-Multi-Drone)), increases inspection coverage to 98.7% (improved by 10.7% compared with PPO-MultiDrone), reduces energy consumption by 28.4%, and achieves task completion rate and resource utilization rate of 95.6% and 91.5% respectively (Improved by 8.4% and 16.0% respectively compared to the optimal baseline Genetic Algorithm-Mask Region-based Convolutional Neural Network). This study provides a reference method for the further development of power Internet of Things defect detection.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":538,"journal":{"name":"Energy Informatics","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://energyinformatics.springeropen.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s42162-025-00575-9","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145170321","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Application of machine learning in power grid fault detection and maintenance 机器学习在电网故障检测与维护中的应用
Q2 Energy Pub Date : 2025-09-26 DOI: 10.1186/s42162-025-00574-w
David Olojede, Stephen King, Ian Jennions

The power grid infrastructure serves as the backbone of modern society, providing essential electricity supply to meet the demands of various sectors. Ensuring a reliable and efficient power grid amidst increasing demand remains paramount. This paper provides a literature assessment of the United Kingdom’s (UK) power grid, with a focus on fault occurrences, maintenance techniques, and the use of new technology for monitoring and maintenance. According to the research, insulation degradation is the most common source of power grid problems. The power grid’s maintenance cycle is then investigated, including preventive, predictive, and corrective maintenance techniques. The study emphasises the significance of regular inspections, condition-based monitoring, and asset management strategies in improving grid dependability and longevity. The paper then addresses the concept of Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM) and how it relates to power grid infrastructure. It studies the role of IVHM systems in real-time monitoring, diagnostics, and prognostics for grid assets, allowing for predictive maintenance and informed decision-making. Furthermore, the article studies the use of machine learning approaches to power grid health monitoring and maintenance. This article discusses machine learning methodologies such as supervised and unsupervised learning, as well as reinforcement learning, and how they are used in defect detection, classification, and predictive maintenance. Overall, this paper provides an overview of the UK power grid, its fault management strategies, maintenance cycles, and the integration of machine learning techniques for health monitoring and maintenance, offering insights into enhancing grid reliability and performance in the face of evolving challenges.

电网基础设施是现代社会的支柱,为社会各部门提供必要的电力供应。在需求不断增长的情况下,确保一个可靠、高效的电网仍然是至关重要的。本文提供了英国(UK)电网的文献评估,重点关注故障发生、维护技术以及监测和维护新技术的使用。根据研究,绝缘退化是电网最常见的问题来源。然后研究电网的维护周期,包括预防性、预测性和纠正性维护技术。该研究强调了定期检查、基于状态的监测和资产管理策略在提高电网可靠性和寿命方面的重要性。然后,本文讨论了集成车辆健康管理(IVHM)的概念及其与电网基础设施的关系。它研究了IVHM系统在电网资产实时监测、诊断和预测中的作用,从而实现预测性维护和知情决策。此外,本文还研究了机器学习方法在电网健康监测和维护中的应用。本文讨论了机器学习方法,如监督学习和非监督学习,以及强化学习,以及如何在缺陷检测、分类和预测性维护中使用它们。总体而言,本文概述了英国电网,其故障管理策略,维护周期以及用于健康监测和维护的机器学习技术的集成,为面对不断变化的挑战提高电网的可靠性和性能提供了见解。
{"title":"Application of machine learning in power grid fault detection and maintenance","authors":"David Olojede,&nbsp;Stephen King,&nbsp;Ian Jennions","doi":"10.1186/s42162-025-00574-w","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s42162-025-00574-w","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The power grid infrastructure serves as the backbone of modern society, providing essential electricity supply to meet the demands of various sectors. Ensuring a reliable and efficient power grid amidst increasing demand remains paramount. This paper provides a literature assessment of the United Kingdom’s (UK) power grid, with a focus on fault occurrences, maintenance techniques, and the use of new technology for monitoring and maintenance. According to the research, insulation degradation is the most common source of power grid problems. The power grid’s maintenance cycle is then investigated, including preventive, predictive, and corrective maintenance techniques. The study emphasises the significance of regular inspections, condition-based monitoring, and asset management strategies in improving grid dependability and longevity. The paper then addresses the concept of Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM) and how it relates to power grid infrastructure. It studies the role of IVHM systems in real-time monitoring, diagnostics, and prognostics for grid assets, allowing for predictive maintenance and informed decision-making. Furthermore, the article studies the use of machine learning approaches to power grid health monitoring and maintenance. This article discusses machine learning methodologies such as supervised and unsupervised learning, as well as reinforcement learning, and how they are used in defect detection, classification, and predictive maintenance. Overall, this paper provides an overview of the UK power grid, its fault management strategies, maintenance cycles, and the integration of machine learning techniques for health monitoring and maintenance, offering insights into enhancing grid reliability and performance in the face of evolving challenges.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":538,"journal":{"name":"Energy Informatics","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://energyinformatics.springeropen.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s42162-025-00574-w","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145170320","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Predictive modeling of energy demands for battery electric buses using real-world data 利用真实世界数据对纯电动公交车的能源需求进行预测建模
Q2 Energy Pub Date : 2025-09-26 DOI: 10.1186/s42162-025-00564-y
Md Atiqur Rahman, David Holt, Yashar Farajpour, Abdelhamid Mammeri, Hasti Khiabani

The transition to battery electric buses (BEBs) offers a significant opportunity to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in public transit. However, the limited driving range of BEBs presents operational challenges, making accurate energy demand prediction essential for effective deployment. Despite advances in machine learning and data-driven modeling, an integrated framework for real-world BEB energy demand prediction remains underdeveloped. Most existing research in this domain relies heavily on simulated or controlled datasets, limiting practical applicability. This study addresses this gap by presenting a comprehensive approach to predicting the energy demands of a BEB fleet under actual service conditions, grounded in real-world operational data collected from the Toronto Transit Commission’s (TTC) BEB trial, one of the largest of its kind in North America. At the core of this approach is a novel data processing framework specifically designed for streaming high-resolution vehicle telematics data, which integrates diverse contextual sources such as weather conditions, route topology, passenger loads, and bus schedules. This integrated framework enables the construction of a large-scale BEB dataset derived from in-service operational data of the TTC’s BEB fleet, encompassing 149,813 hours of driving and 2.56 million kilometers traveled. The dataset is leveraged to train and evaluate several machine learning models to predict energy demands along TTC routes. Results demonstrate that the best-performing model achieves a 38% reduction in mean absolute error compared to a baseline method and explains 87% of the variance in net energy demand. Additionally, an analysis of seasonal effects reveals heightened prediction challenges during colder months, driven by increased variability in energy consumption across different BEB makes and models. Finally, a physics-informed hybrid modeling approach is proposed, which integrates energy estimates from vehicle longitudinal dynamics into the data-driven pipeline, yielding further improvements in prediction accuracy and underscoring the value of domain knowledge in machine learning applications for transit.

向纯电动公交车(beb)的过渡为减少公共交通中的温室气体(GHG)排放提供了一个重要的机会。然而,beb有限的行驶里程给操作带来了挑战,因此准确的能源需求预测对于有效部署至关重要。尽管在机器学习和数据驱动建模方面取得了进步,但用于现实世界BEB能源需求预测的集成框架仍然不发达。该领域的大多数现有研究严重依赖于模拟或控制数据集,限制了实际应用。本研究提出了一种全面的方法来预测BEB车队在实际服务条件下的能源需求,该方法基于多伦多交通委员会(TTC) BEB试验收集的真实运行数据,这是北美最大的BEB试验之一。该方法的核心是一个新颖的数据处理框架,专门为高分辨率车辆远程信息处理数据流设计,该框架集成了各种上下文源,如天气条件、路线拓扑、乘客负载和公交时刻表。该集成框架可以构建大规模的BEB数据集,该数据集来自TTC的BEB车队的运行数据,包括149,813小时的驾驶时间和256万公里的行驶里程。该数据集被用来训练和评估几个机器学习模型,以预测TTC路线上的能源需求。结果表明,与基线方法相比,性能最好的模型实现了平均绝对误差减少38%,并解释了净能源需求方差的87%。此外,对季节影响的分析表明,在较冷的月份,由于不同BEB品牌和模型的能源消耗变异性增加,预测难度加大。最后,提出了一种物理信息混合建模方法,该方法将车辆纵向动力学的能量估计集成到数据驱动的管道中,进一步提高了预测精度,并强调了领域知识在交通机器学习应用中的价值。
{"title":"Predictive modeling of energy demands for battery electric buses using real-world data","authors":"Md Atiqur Rahman,&nbsp;David Holt,&nbsp;Yashar Farajpour,&nbsp;Abdelhamid Mammeri,&nbsp;Hasti Khiabani","doi":"10.1186/s42162-025-00564-y","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s42162-025-00564-y","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The transition to battery electric buses (BEBs) offers a significant opportunity to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in public transit. However, the limited driving range of BEBs presents operational challenges, making accurate energy demand prediction essential for effective deployment. Despite advances in machine learning and data-driven modeling, an integrated framework for real-world BEB energy demand prediction remains underdeveloped. Most existing research in this domain relies heavily on simulated or controlled datasets, limiting practical applicability. This study addresses this gap by presenting a comprehensive approach to predicting the energy demands of a BEB fleet under actual service conditions, grounded in real-world operational data collected from the Toronto Transit Commission’s (TTC) BEB trial, one of the largest of its kind in North America. At the core of this approach is a novel data processing framework specifically designed for streaming high-resolution vehicle telematics data, which integrates diverse contextual sources such as weather conditions, route topology, passenger loads, and bus schedules. This integrated framework enables the construction of a large-scale BEB dataset derived from in-service operational data of the TTC’s BEB fleet, encompassing 149,813 hours of driving and 2.56 million kilometers traveled. The dataset is leveraged to train and evaluate several machine learning models to predict energy demands along TTC routes. Results demonstrate that the best-performing model achieves a 38% reduction in mean absolute error compared to a baseline method and explains 87% of the variance in net energy demand. Additionally, an analysis of seasonal effects reveals heightened prediction challenges during colder months, driven by increased variability in energy consumption across different BEB makes and models. Finally, a physics-informed hybrid modeling approach is proposed, which integrates energy estimates from vehicle longitudinal dynamics into the data-driven pipeline, yielding further improvements in prediction accuracy and underscoring the value of domain knowledge in machine learning applications for transit.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":538,"journal":{"name":"Energy Informatics","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://energyinformatics.springeropen.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s42162-025-00564-y","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145170319","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Analysis of the monitoring and identification effect of system cognitive service technology on DC system in power grid 系统认知服务技术对电网直流系统的监测识别效果分析
Q2 Energy Pub Date : 2025-09-25 DOI: 10.1186/s42162-025-00569-7
Xiaogang Wu, Xingwang Chen, Kun Zhang

In contemporary power grid infrastructure, the stability and health of DC systems are critical for uninterrupted energy delivery. As these systems become more complex, traditional monitoring methods are inadequate for detecting early warning signs and critical failures. Integration of cognitive service technologies provides promising capabilities for intelligent monitoring and fault detection in such systems. Despite the availability of raw sensor data, power grid operators struggle to accurately identify and predict faults in DC systems in real-time. The absence of intelligent classification and predictive mechanisms frequently results in a delayed response to system abnormalities, jeopardizing operational reliability. This research aims to develop a machine learning-based monitoring and identification framework for evaluating the operational status of DC systems using sensor-driven datasets. The primary goal is to predict the system’s health status—Healthy, Fault Detected, or Critical Fault—using electrical and environmental parameters. A new algorithm, SmartDC-FaultMonitor, is proposed for analyzing the SmartDC-Monitoring Dataset, which includes voltage, current, temperature, battery condition, communication signal strength, fault alarms, and load status. The methodology includes data preprocessing (missing value handling, encoding, and normalization), hybrid feature selection using Mutual Information and Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE), and classification with an ensemble voting classifier that combines a Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), Categorical Boosting (CatBoost), and TabNet. Model tuning is done using grid search, and performance is measured on a hold-out test set. The proposed ensemble model achieved high-performance metrics on the test dataset, with an accuracy of 94.00%, precision of 93.75%, recall of 94.50%, F1-score of 94.12%, and a Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC) of 0.91. These results demonstrate the model’s ability to accurately classify system health statuses, including the early detection of critical faults. The study confirms the effectiveness of cognitive service technology in improving the monitoring and identification of DC power grid systems. The SmartDC-FaultMonitor algorithm provides a dependable and scalable approach for real-time fault detection, giving grid operators timely insights and enabling proactive maintenance in smart energy infrastructures.

在现代电网基础设施中,直流系统的稳定和健康对不间断供电至关重要。随着这些系统变得越来越复杂,传统的监测方法已不足以发现早期预警信号和重大故障。认知服务技术的集成为此类系统的智能监控和故障检测提供了有前途的能力。尽管原始传感器数据可用,电网运营商仍难以准确识别和预测直流系统的实时故障。缺乏智能分类和预测机制,往往会导致对系统异常的响应延迟,从而影响系统运行的可靠性。本研究旨在开发一种基于机器学习的监测和识别框架,用于使用传感器驱动的数据集评估直流系统的运行状态。主要目标是使用电气和环境参数预测系统的健康状态——健康、故障检测或严重故障。提出了一种新的算法——SmartDC-FaultMonitor,用于分析包括电压、电流、温度、电池状态、通信信号强度、故障告警和负载状态在内的SmartDC-Monitoring数据集。该方法包括数据预处理(缺失值处理、编码和归一化)、使用互信息和递归特征消除(RFE)的混合特征选择,以及使用集成投票分类器进行分类,该分类器结合了光梯度增强机(LightGBM)、分类增强(CatBoost)和TabNet。模型调优是使用网格搜索完成的,性能是在保留测试集上测量的。所提出的集成模型在测试数据集上实现了高性能的指标,准确率为94.00%,精密度为93.75%,召回率为94.50%,f1得分为94.12%,马修斯相关系数(MCC)为0.91。这些结果证明了该模型能够准确地对系统健康状态进行分类,包括对关键故障的早期检测。研究证实了认知服务技术在改进直流电网系统监测与识别方面的有效性。SmartDC-FaultMonitor算法为实时故障检测提供了一种可靠且可扩展的方法,为电网运营商提供及时的见解,并在智能能源基础设施中实现主动维护。
{"title":"Analysis of the monitoring and identification effect of system cognitive service technology on DC system in power grid","authors":"Xiaogang Wu,&nbsp;Xingwang Chen,&nbsp;Kun Zhang","doi":"10.1186/s42162-025-00569-7","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s42162-025-00569-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In contemporary power grid infrastructure, the stability and health of DC systems are critical for uninterrupted energy delivery. As these systems become more complex, traditional monitoring methods are inadequate for detecting early warning signs and critical failures. Integration of cognitive service technologies provides promising capabilities for intelligent monitoring and fault detection in such systems. Despite the availability of raw sensor data, power grid operators struggle to accurately identify and predict faults in DC systems in real-time. The absence of intelligent classification and predictive mechanisms frequently results in a delayed response to system abnormalities, jeopardizing operational reliability. This research aims to develop a machine learning-based monitoring and identification framework for evaluating the operational status of DC systems using sensor-driven datasets. The primary goal is to predict the system’s health status—Healthy, Fault Detected, or Critical Fault—using electrical and environmental parameters. A new algorithm, SmartDC-FaultMonitor, is proposed for analyzing the SmartDC-Monitoring Dataset, which includes voltage, current, temperature, battery condition, communication signal strength, fault alarms, and load status. The methodology includes data preprocessing (missing value handling, encoding, and normalization), hybrid feature selection using Mutual Information and Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE), and classification with an ensemble voting classifier that combines a Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), Categorical Boosting (CatBoost), and TabNet. Model tuning is done using grid search, and performance is measured on a hold-out test set. The proposed ensemble model achieved high-performance metrics on the test dataset, with an accuracy of 94.00%, precision of 93.75%, recall of 94.50%, F1-score of 94.12%, and a Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC) of 0.91. These results demonstrate the model’s ability to accurately classify system health statuses, including the early detection of critical faults. The study confirms the effectiveness of cognitive service technology in improving the monitoring and identification of DC power grid systems. The SmartDC-FaultMonitor algorithm provides a dependable and scalable approach for real-time fault detection, giving grid operators timely insights and enabling proactive maintenance in smart energy infrastructures.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":538,"journal":{"name":"Energy Informatics","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://energyinformatics.springeropen.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s42162-025-00569-7","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145168865","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Dynamic assessment of distribution network-VPP interaction: an LSTM-entropy hybrid methodology 配电网与vpp相互作用的动态评估:一种lstm -熵混合方法
Q2 Energy Pub Date : 2025-09-24 DOI: 10.1186/s42162-025-00555-z
Wen-Bin Hao, Bo Xie, Zhi-Gao Meng, Huan-Huan Li, Yan Tu, Qin-Lu Fang, Jing Xue, Yi-Ming Hu

The integration of renewable energy into power systems has introduced significant complexity and dynamism, particularly in the interaction between distribution network and VPP. Existing methods struggle to capture the complex and dynamic characteristics, while machine learning techniques like LSTM remain underutilized in this context. This study proposes a methodology for evaluating distribution network-VPP interaction in uncertain environments. The methodology integrates a multi-dimensional evaluation index system with a dynamic weighting approach that combines the entropy method for initial weight generation and LSTM for optimization. The evaluation index system covers economic, safety, and flexibility dimensions, with specific indicators designed to capture the complex interdependencies and dynamic characteristics. The LSTM, leveraging its ability to process sequential data and capture temporal dependencies, dynamically adjusts the weights of evaluation indicators based on historical operational patterns, thereby enhancing the accuracy and adaptability of the assessment. Implementation results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves high accuracy and reliability, with MSE of 0.0012, MAE of 0.0056, and WRC of 96.2%. Testing using real-world operational data from a regional distribution network confirms a 95.0% match with expert argumentation, highlighting the practical applicability and robustness of the methodology. This study contributes to the advancement of data-driven decision-making frameworks for power system planning and operation, particularly in the context of integrating distributed energy resources and achieving carbon neutrality goals.

可再生能源与电力系统的整合带来了巨大的复杂性和动态性,特别是在配电网和VPP之间的相互作用。现有的方法很难捕捉复杂和动态的特征,而像LSTM这样的机器学习技术在这种情况下仍然没有得到充分利用。本研究提出一种评估不确定环境下配电网与vpp相互作用的方法。该方法将多维评价指标体系与熵法生成初始权值和LSTM优化相结合的动态赋权方法相结合。评价指标体系包括经济性、安全性和灵活性三个维度,具体指标旨在捕捉复杂的相互依赖关系和动态特征。LSTM利用其处理顺序数据和捕获时间依赖性的能力,根据历史操作模式动态调整评估指标的权重,从而提高评估的准确性和适应性。实现结果表明,该方法具有较高的准确率和可靠性,MSE为0.0012,MAE为0.0056,WRC为96.2%。使用来自区域配电网的实际运行数据进行测试,与专家论证的匹配度为95.0%,突出了该方法的实用性和稳健性。本研究有助于数据驱动的电力系统规划和运行决策框架的进步,特别是在整合分布式能源和实现碳中和目标的背景下。
{"title":"Dynamic assessment of distribution network-VPP interaction: an LSTM-entropy hybrid methodology","authors":"Wen-Bin Hao,&nbsp;Bo Xie,&nbsp;Zhi-Gao Meng,&nbsp;Huan-Huan Li,&nbsp;Yan Tu,&nbsp;Qin-Lu Fang,&nbsp;Jing Xue,&nbsp;Yi-Ming Hu","doi":"10.1186/s42162-025-00555-z","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s42162-025-00555-z","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The integration of renewable energy into power systems has introduced significant complexity and dynamism, particularly in the interaction between distribution network and VPP. Existing methods struggle to capture the complex and dynamic characteristics, while machine learning techniques like LSTM remain underutilized in this context. This study proposes a methodology for evaluating distribution network-VPP interaction in uncertain environments. The methodology integrates a multi-dimensional evaluation index system with a dynamic weighting approach that combines the entropy method for initial weight generation and LSTM for optimization. The evaluation index system covers economic, safety, and flexibility dimensions, with specific indicators designed to capture the complex interdependencies and dynamic characteristics. The LSTM, leveraging its ability to process sequential data and capture temporal dependencies, dynamically adjusts the weights of evaluation indicators based on historical operational patterns, thereby enhancing the accuracy and adaptability of the assessment. Implementation results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves high accuracy and reliability, with MSE of 0.0012, MAE of 0.0056, and WRC of 96.2%. Testing using real-world operational data from a regional distribution network confirms a 95.0% match with expert argumentation, highlighting the practical applicability and robustness of the methodology. This study contributes to the advancement of data-driven decision-making frameworks for power system planning and operation, particularly in the context of integrating distributed energy resources and achieving carbon neutrality goals.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":538,"journal":{"name":"Energy Informatics","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://energyinformatics.springeropen.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s42162-025-00555-z","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145168742","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Electric supply restoration in self-healed smart distribution systems: a review 自愈智能配电系统的供电恢复研究进展
Q2 Energy Pub Date : 2025-09-15 DOI: 10.1186/s42162-025-00541-5
Mohamed Goda, Mazen Abdel-Salam, Mohamed-Tharwat EL-Mohandes, Ahmed Elnozahy

System restoration is aimed at ensuring continuity of the electric supply to all loads in a distribution system under abnormal conditions without violating electrical-constraints. This adds the feature of “self-healing” to the distribution system to make it as smart system. This paper presents a literature survey of published research techniques on electric supply restoration over the period 1981–2024. Four categories of distribution systems with different attributes are proposed by the present authors to compare fairly among these techniques through implementation and running the necessary codes for each restoration technique. Comparisons are concerned with contribution, adopted technique, test model, advantages and disadvantages as well as utilization of renewables. To meet the electrical-constraints on electric supply restoration, fifteen challenges are selected, reviewed and discussed within the comparisons. The algorithms based on graph theory showed better performance regarding the challenges related to minimizing the energy-not-supplied, achieving self-healing dream, preventing feeder overloading and maintaining the voltage profile within limits when compared with other algorithms. The algorithms based on linear and nonlinear programming showed better performance concerning the challenges related to minimizing restoration time and preventing in-supply load shedding when compared with other algorithms. The algorithms based on heuristics and metaheuristics showed better performance concerning the challenges related to system configuration, generating optimal sequence of switches, minimizing the number of ordered switches and reducing the restoration cost when compared with other algorithms. The future trends of the supply restoration in smart distribution systems are also discussed. The present survey is concluded with a summary of the findings from the literature survey and outlines potential directions for future research. It highlights the key opportunities to support researchers in advancing more intelligent restoration strategies for electric supply in smart distribution systems.

系统恢复的目的是在不违反电力约束的情况下,保证在异常情况下配电系统中所有负荷的电力供应不中断。这为配电系统增加了“自我修复”的特性,使其成为智能系统。本文介绍了1981-2024年期间已发表的电力供应恢复研究技术的文献综述。本文提出了四类具有不同属性的配电系统,通过实现和运行每一种恢复技术所需的代码,对这些技术进行公平的比较。比较了可再生能源的贡献、采用的技术、试验模型、优缺点以及利用情况。为了满足电力供应恢复的电力约束,在比较中选择,审查和讨论了15个挑战。与其他算法相比,基于图论的算法在最小化无供能、实现自愈梦想、防止馈线过载和保持电压分布在限制范围内等方面表现出更好的性能。与其他算法相比,基于线性和非线性规划的算法在最小化恢复时间和防止供电负荷下降方面表现出更好的性能。与其他算法相比,基于启发式和元启发式的算法在系统配置挑战、生成最优交换机序列、最小化有序交换机数量和降低恢复成本等方面表现出更好的性能。讨论了智能配电系统供电恢复的未来发展趋势。本文总结了文献调查的结果,并概述了未来研究的可能方向。它强调了支持研究人员在智能配电系统中推进更智能的电力供应恢复策略的关键机会。
{"title":"Electric supply restoration in self-healed smart distribution systems: a review","authors":"Mohamed Goda,&nbsp;Mazen Abdel-Salam,&nbsp;Mohamed-Tharwat EL-Mohandes,&nbsp;Ahmed Elnozahy","doi":"10.1186/s42162-025-00541-5","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s42162-025-00541-5","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>System restoration is aimed at ensuring continuity of the electric supply to all loads in a distribution system under abnormal conditions without violating electrical-constraints. This adds the feature of “self-healing” to the distribution system to make it as smart system. This paper presents a literature survey of published research techniques on electric supply restoration over the period 1981–2024. Four categories of distribution systems with different attributes are proposed by the present authors to compare fairly among these techniques through implementation and running the necessary codes for each restoration technique. Comparisons are concerned with contribution, adopted technique, test model, advantages and disadvantages as well as utilization of renewables. To meet the electrical-constraints on electric supply restoration, fifteen challenges are selected, reviewed and discussed within the comparisons. The algorithms based on graph theory showed better performance regarding the challenges related to minimizing the energy-not-supplied, achieving self-healing dream, preventing feeder overloading and maintaining the voltage profile within limits when compared with other algorithms. The algorithms based on linear and nonlinear programming showed better performance concerning the challenges related to minimizing restoration time and preventing in-supply load shedding when compared with other algorithms. The algorithms based on heuristics and metaheuristics showed better performance concerning the challenges related to system configuration, generating optimal sequence of switches, minimizing the number of ordered switches and reducing the restoration cost when compared with other algorithms. The future trends of the supply restoration in smart distribution systems are also discussed. The present survey is concluded with a summary of the findings from the literature survey and outlines potential directions for future research. It highlights the key opportunities to support researchers in advancing more intelligent restoration strategies for electric supply in smart distribution systems.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":538,"journal":{"name":"Energy Informatics","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://energyinformatics.springeropen.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s42162-025-00541-5","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145057585","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A multi-step day-ahead wind power forecasting based on VMD-LSTM-EFG-ABC technique 基于vmd - lstm - eeg - abc技术的风电日前多步预测
Q2 Energy Pub Date : 2025-08-28 DOI: 10.1186/s42162-025-00568-8
Shobanadevi Ayyavu, Md Shohel Sayeed, Siti Fatimah Abdul Razak

Accurate and robust wind power prediction for wind farms could significantly decrease the substantial effect on grid operating safety caused by integrating high-permeability intermittent power supplies into the power grid. The article introduces a new wind power multistep prediction model combining Variational Mode De-composition (VMD) with the Long Short-Term Enhanced Forget Gate (LSTM_EFG) network. The VMD is occupied to break down the initial wind power and speed data into various sub-layers. The LSTM_EFG network predicts the low-frequency sub-layers extracted from the VMD. In contrast, the Artificial Bee Colony optimization algorithm fine-tunes the network for the high-frequency sub-layers acquired from the VMD-LSTM-EFG model. The high performance of projected methods in multistep prediction was evaluated by comparing them with eight different models. Results from four experiments show that: (a) the projected model exhibits the most superior multistep prediction performance out of all models tested; (b) in comparison to other models, the proposed model proves to be more efficient and resilient in capturing trend information. The implementation of accurate wind power prediction models continues to pose challenges due to the unpredictable, sudden, and seasonal changes in wind patterns.

对风电场进行准确、稳健的风电功率预测,可以显著降低高渗透间歇性电源接入电网对电网运行安全造成的实质性影响。本文介绍了一种结合变分模态分解(VMD)和长短期增强遗忘门(LSTM_EFG)网络的风电多步预测模型。占用VMD将初始风力和风速数据分解为各个子层。LSTM_EFG网络预测从VMD中提取的低频子层。相比之下,人工蜂群优化算法对从VMD-LSTM-EFG模型中获取的高频子层进行网络微调。通过与8种不同模型的比较,评价了投影方法在多步预测中的高性能。四个实验结果表明:(a)在所有模型中,投影模型的多步预测性能最好;(b)与其他模型相比,建议的模型在获取趋势信息方面更有效率和弹性更强。由于风力模式的不可预测性、突发性和季节性变化,准确的风力预测模型的实施继续面临挑战。
{"title":"A multi-step day-ahead wind power forecasting based on VMD-LSTM-EFG-ABC technique","authors":"Shobanadevi Ayyavu,&nbsp;Md Shohel Sayeed,&nbsp;Siti Fatimah Abdul Razak","doi":"10.1186/s42162-025-00568-8","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s42162-025-00568-8","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Accurate and robust wind power prediction for wind farms could significantly decrease the substantial effect on grid operating safety caused by integrating high-permeability intermittent power supplies into the power grid. The article introduces a new wind power multistep prediction model combining Variational Mode De-composition (VMD) with the Long Short-Term Enhanced Forget Gate (LSTM_EFG) network. The VMD is occupied to break down the initial wind power and speed data into various sub-layers. The LSTM_EFG network predicts the low-frequency sub-layers extracted from the VMD. In contrast, the Artificial Bee Colony optimization algorithm fine-tunes the network for the high-frequency sub-layers acquired from the VMD-LSTM-EFG model. The high performance of projected methods in multistep prediction was evaluated by comparing them with eight different models. Results from four experiments show that: (a) the projected model exhibits the most superior multistep prediction performance out of all models tested; (b) in comparison to other models, the proposed model proves to be more efficient and resilient in capturing trend information. The implementation of accurate wind power prediction models continues to pose challenges due to the unpredictable, sudden, and seasonal changes in wind patterns.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":538,"journal":{"name":"Energy Informatics","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://energyinformatics.springeropen.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s42162-025-00568-8","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144909903","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A novel method for enhancing the accommodation of renewable energy in flexible AC/DC distribution networks based on energy router devices 一种基于能量路由器的增强柔性交直流配电网可再生能源容错的新方法
Q2 Energy Pub Date : 2025-08-28 DOI: 10.1186/s42162-025-00571-z
Guangjun Liu, Peng Wang, Ziti Cui, Shuman Sun, Pengxuan Liu

In the contemporary landscape of complex industrial processes, the efficient utilization of renewable energy has emerged as a crucial concern, captivating the attention of researchers, industries, and policymakers alike. However, integrating these renewable energy sources into traditional AC distribution networks has proven to be a formidable challenge. Against this backdrop, this paper presents an innovative optimal control method tailored for energy routers (ERs) in flexible AC/DC distribution networks. To effectively harness the capabilities of ERs, a Long-Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network augmented with an attention mechanism is employed. The attention mechanism allows the LSTM network to focus on the most relevant information in the time-series data, thereby improving the prediction accuracy. Subsequently, an optimization model is constructed to maximize the utilization of renewable energy by ERs. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed method, a two-week field test was conducted as part of an energy retrofit project in China. When compared with conventional methods, the proposed approach has been shown to enhance the local absorption of PV generation by over 24.7%.

在复杂工业过程的当代景观中,可再生能源的有效利用已经成为一个关键问题,吸引了研究人员、行业和政策制定者的注意。然而,将这些可再生能源整合到传统的交流配电网络中已被证明是一项艰巨的挑战。在此背景下,本文提出了一种针对柔性交直流配电网中能量路由器(er)的创新最优控制方法。为了有效地利用脑电的能力,我们采用了一个带有注意机制的长短期记忆(LSTM)网络。注意机制允许LSTM网络关注时间序列数据中最相关的信息,从而提高预测精度。在此基础上,构建了以可再生能源利用最大化为目标的优化模型。为了验证所提出方法的有效性,作为中国能源改造项目的一部分,进行了为期两周的现场测试。与传统方法相比,该方法可将光伏发电的局部吸收提高24.7%以上。
{"title":"A novel method for enhancing the accommodation of renewable energy in flexible AC/DC distribution networks based on energy router devices","authors":"Guangjun Liu,&nbsp;Peng Wang,&nbsp;Ziti Cui,&nbsp;Shuman Sun,&nbsp;Pengxuan Liu","doi":"10.1186/s42162-025-00571-z","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s42162-025-00571-z","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>In the contemporary landscape of complex industrial processes, the efficient utilization of renewable energy has emerged as a crucial concern, captivating the attention of researchers, industries, and policymakers alike. However, integrating these renewable energy sources into traditional AC distribution networks has proven to be a formidable challenge. Against this backdrop, this paper presents an innovative optimal control method tailored for energy routers (ERs) in flexible AC/DC distribution networks. To effectively harness the capabilities of ERs, a Long-Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network augmented with an attention mechanism is employed. The attention mechanism allows the LSTM network to focus on the most relevant information in the time-series data, thereby improving the prediction accuracy. Subsequently, an optimization model is constructed to maximize the utilization of renewable energy by ERs. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed method, a two-week field test was conducted as part of an energy retrofit project in China. When compared with conventional methods, the proposed approach has been shown to enhance the local absorption of PV generation by over 24.7%.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":538,"journal":{"name":"Energy Informatics","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://energyinformatics.springeropen.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s42162-025-00571-z","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144914773","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A meta-learning framework with temporal feature integration for electricity load forecasting 基于时间特征集成的电力负荷预测元学习框架
Q2 Energy Pub Date : 2025-08-28 DOI: 10.1186/s42162-025-00572-y
Rakesh Salakapuri, Thirukkavalluru Pavankumar

Accurate electricity load forecasting is essential for the stability, efficiency, and sustainability of modern power systems. However, individual forecasting models often lack generalization across temporal and regional variations and offer limited interpretability. This study proposes a comprehensive meta-learning-based forecast combination framework to enhance both prediction accuracy and model transparency. Using hourly load data from 20 European countries spanning 2018 to 2024, the framework incorporates time-aware features such as hour of the day, day of the week, month, and public holidays. Ten diverse base models—including XGBoost, LightGBM, Random Forest, and LSTM—are trained globally, from which the top five performers are selected (based on R², MAE, and MAPE) and fed into five meta-learners: Ridge Regression, Lasso, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and MLP. These meta-models are trained using both model predictions and engineered time features. Experimental results demonstrate superior performance, with the best-performing meta-learner (Random Forest Regressor) achieving a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.9998 and a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.79%, significantly outperforming traditional ensemble methods. Furthermore, the inclusion of lag features and 5-fold cross-validation led to substantial improvements across all models, including dramatic reductions in MAE (up to 87%), MAPE (up to 88%), and MSE (up to 97%), along with near-perfect R² scores (~ 1.000). Additionally, SHAP-based explainability reveals the contribution of individual time-based features and the influence of each base model within the ensemble, thereby enhancing transparency and supporting practical decision-making.

准确的电力负荷预测对现代电力系统的稳定性、高效性和可持续性至关重要。然而,个别预测模式往往缺乏跨时间和区域变化的通用性,可解释性有限。本研究提出了一种基于元学习的综合预测组合框架,以提高预测精度和模型透明度。该框架利用2018年至2024年20个欧洲国家的每小时负荷数据,结合了时间感知特征,如一天中的小时、一周中的哪一天、一月中的哪一天和公共假日。10个不同的基本模型——包括XGBoost、LightGBM、Random Forest和lstm——在全球范围内进行训练,从中选出表现最好的5个模型(基于R²、MAE和MAPE),并将其输入5个元学习器:Ridge Regression、Lasso、Random Forest、Gradient Boosting和MLP。这些元模型使用模型预测和工程时间特征进行训练。实验结果表明,表现最好的元学习器(随机森林回归器)的决定系数(R²)为0.9998,平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)为0.79%,显著优于传统的集成方法。此外,包含滞后特征和5倍交叉验证导致所有模型的显著改进,包括MAE(高达87%),MAPE(高达88%)和MSE(高达97%)的显着降低,以及接近完美的R²分数(~ 1.000)。此外,基于shap的可解释性揭示了单个基于时间的特征的贡献以及每个基本模型在集成中的影响,从而提高了透明度并支持实际决策。
{"title":"A meta-learning framework with temporal feature integration for electricity load forecasting","authors":"Rakesh Salakapuri,&nbsp;Thirukkavalluru Pavankumar","doi":"10.1186/s42162-025-00572-y","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s42162-025-00572-y","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Accurate electricity load forecasting is essential for the stability, efficiency, and sustainability of modern power systems. However, individual forecasting models often lack generalization across temporal and regional variations and offer limited interpretability. This study proposes a comprehensive meta-learning-based forecast combination framework to enhance both prediction accuracy and model transparency. Using hourly load data from 20 European countries spanning 2018 to 2024, the framework incorporates time-aware features such as hour of the day, day of the week, month, and public holidays. Ten diverse base models—including XGBoost, LightGBM, Random Forest, and LSTM—are trained globally, from which the top five performers are selected (based on R², MAE, and MAPE) and fed into five meta-learners: Ridge Regression, Lasso, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and MLP. These meta-models are trained using both model predictions and engineered time features. Experimental results demonstrate superior performance, with the best-performing meta-learner (Random Forest Regressor) achieving a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.9998 and a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.79%, significantly outperforming traditional ensemble methods. Furthermore, the inclusion of lag features and 5-fold cross-validation led to substantial improvements across all models, including dramatic reductions in MAE (up to 87%), MAPE (up to 88%), and MSE (up to 97%), along with near-perfect R² scores (~ 1.000). Additionally, SHAP-based explainability reveals the contribution of individual time-based features and the influence of each base model within the ensemble, thereby enhancing transparency and supporting practical decision-making.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":538,"journal":{"name":"Energy Informatics","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://energyinformatics.springeropen.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s42162-025-00572-y","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144914774","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
期刊
Energy Informatics
全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:604180095
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1