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Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political Aggression最新文献

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The companion to peace and conflict fieldwork 和平与冲突现场工作的伴侣
IF 2 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-06-03 DOI: 10.1080/19434472.2021.1933567
A. Marín
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引用次数: 1
Antiheroes fueled by injustice: dark personality traits and perceived group relative deprivation in the prediction of violent extremism 不公正引发的反英雄:暴力极端主义预测中的黑暗人格特征和感知的群体相对剥夺
IF 2 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-05-25 DOI: 10.1080/19434472.2021.1930100
Tomislav M. Pavlović, Renata Franc
ABSTRACT Despite multiple studies providing evidence of subjective inequality and dark personality traits as predictors of extremism, their interactive effect on extremism has not been studied. As such interactions are implied in multiple models of radicalization, this research was focused on testing them. While Study 1 (N = 279), based on a convenient student sample, established the interaction between perceived group relative socio-political deprivation and Dark Triad traits in the prediction of support for political violence, Study 2 (N = 461), based on a quota sample, specified it in the context of radicalized intentions: emotional component of group deprivation (anger, contempt, and disgust) interacts with the Dark Tetrad in the prediction of radicalized but not activist intentions, even after correcting for social desirability bias. Their combined explanatory power (up to 25% of explained variance) robustly confirms the role of individual dispositions and (responses to the perception of) contextual factors, as well as their interactions, in radicalization.
摘要尽管多项研究提供了主观不平等和黑暗人格特征作为极端主义预测因素的证据,但它们对极端主义的交互作用尚未得到研究。由于这种相互作用隐含在激进化的多个模型中,本研究的重点是测试它们。而研究1(N = 279),基于一个方便的学生样本,在预测对政治暴力的支持时,建立了感知到的群体相对社会政治剥夺和黑暗三合会特征之间的相互作用,研究2(N = 461),基于配额样本,在激进化意图的背景下具体说明了这一点:群体剥夺的情感成分(愤怒、蔑视和厌恶)在预测激进化但非激进主义意图时与黑暗四重奏相互作用,即使在纠正了社会可取性偏见之后也是如此。它们的综合解释力(高达解释方差的25%)有力地证实了个体倾向和(对感知的反应)情境因素及其相互作用在激进化中的作用。
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引用次数: 6
Re-examining the explanations of convert radicalization in Salafi-Jihadist terrorism with evidence from Canada 用加拿大证据重新审视萨拉菲圣战恐怖主义中皈依激进化的解释
IF 2 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-05-18 DOI: 10.1080/19434472.2021.1919911
David C. Jones, L. Dawson
ABSTRACT Evidence from multiple sources suggests converts to Islam are significantly overrepresented in the ranks of Salafi-jihadist terrorists. Researchers have been speculating for some time why this might be the case. This paper identifies, and critically examines, four hypothetical explanations commonly found in the literature: (1) some explanations focus on the significance of prior personal characteristics of the converts; (2) some explanations emphasize the rapidity of the movement from conversion to radicalization; (3) some explanations highlight the lack of religious knowledge on the part of radicalized converts; and (4) some explanations point to the role of the zealotry of converts. Examining each explanation, we find the causal mechanisms hypothesized are inadequate and the hypotheses are incongruent with the data we have collected on radicalized Canadian converts. In the end, we offer an alternative hypothesis, based on the analysis of the response of radicalized converts to an experience of disappointment that is common in the post-conversion period.
摘要来自多个来源的证据表明,皈依伊斯兰教的人在萨拉菲圣战恐怖分子中的比例明显过高。一段时间以来,研究人员一直在猜测为什么会出现这种情况。本文确定并批判性地考察了文献中常见的四种假设性解释:(1)一些解释侧重于皈依者先前个人特征的意义;(2) 一些解释强调了从皈依到激进主义运动的快速性;(3) 一些解释强调激进的皈依者缺乏宗教知识;以及(4)一些解释指出了皈依者狂热的作用。检查每一种解释,我们发现假设的因果机制是不充分的,这些假设与我们收集的关于激进的加拿大皈依者的数据不一致。最后,我们提供了一个替代假设,基于对激进皈依者对失望经历的反应的分析,这种失望经历在皈依后时期很常见。
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引用次数: 2
Homegrown, ISIS in America. A critical assessment 本土的ISIS在美国。关键评估
IF 2 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-05-07 DOI: 10.1080/19434472.2021.1900326
Daniel E. Levenson
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引用次数: 0
Mobilizing extremism online: comparing Australian and Canadian right-wing extremist groups on Facebook 在网上动员极端主义:比较Facebook上澳大利亚和加拿大的右翼极端主义团体
IF 2 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-03-30 DOI: 10.1080/19434472.2021.1903064
Jade Hutchinson, Amarnath Amarasingam, R. Scrivens, Brian Ballsun-Stanton
ABSTRACT Right-wing extremist groups harness popular social media platforms to accrue and mobilize followers. In recent years, researchers have examined the various themes and narratives espoused by extremist groups in the United States and Europe, and how these themes and narratives are employed to mobilize their followings on social media. Little, however, is comparatively known about how such efforts unfold within and between right-wing extremist groups in Australia and Canada. In this study, we conducted a cross-national comparative analysis of over eight years of online content found on 59 Australian and Canadian right-wing group pages on Facebook. Here we assessed the level of active and passive user engagement with posts and identified certain themes and narratives that generated the most user engagement. Overall, a number of ideological and behavioral commonalities and differences emerged in regard to patterns of active and passive user engagement, and the character of three prevailing themes: methods of violence, and references to national and racial identities. The results highlight the influence of both the national and transnational context in negotiating which themes and narratives resonate with Australian and Canadian right-wing online communities, and the multi-dimensional nature of right-wing user engagement and social mobilization on social media.
摘要右翼极端组织利用流行的社交媒体平台来积累和动员追随者。近年来,研究人员研究了美国和欧洲极端组织所支持的各种主题和叙事,以及如何利用这些主题和叙事在社交媒体上动员他们的追随者。然而,相对而言,人们对澳大利亚和加拿大右翼极端组织内部和之间的这种努力是如何展开的知之甚少。在这项研究中,我们对Facebook上59个澳大利亚和加拿大右翼团体页面上8年多的在线内容进行了跨国比较分析。在这里,我们评估了用户对帖子的主动和被动参与程度,并确定了产生最多用户参与的某些主题和叙述。总的来说,在主动和被动用户参与模式以及三个主要主题的特征方面,出现了一些意识形态和行为上的共性和差异:暴力方法以及对民族和种族身份的提及。研究结果强调了国家和跨国背景在谈判哪些主题和叙事与澳大利亚和加拿大右翼网络社区产生共鸣方面的影响,以及右翼用户参与和社交媒体上的社会动员的多维度性质。
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引用次数: 7
An exploratory analysis of leakage warning behavior in lone-actor terrorists 单方恐怖分子泄漏预警行为的探索性分析
IF 2 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-03-17 DOI: 10.1080/19434472.2021.1900325
M. Rose, J. Morrison
ABSTRACT Leakage is one of the eight warning behaviors referred to in the violence risk and threat assessment literature. Previous research has highlighted the relevance and prevalence of leakage in lone-actor terrorists; however, a more detailed understanding of this phenomenon is lacking. This study sets out to expand our knowledge of this behavior by conducting an exploratory analysis using court records relating to IS-inspired lone-actor terrorism cases in the United States. The general patterns in leakage warning behavior were analyzed, and different types of leakage were examined with regard to from whom they were leaked, how they were leaked, their presence online, and whether or not they occurred before certain types of attacks more than others. It was found that leakage in the form of support tended to be leaked most frequently to members of the public, via written text and online, whilst the leakage of intent and specifics appeared to be more regularly leaked to co-conspirators and through verbal communication that avoided the online world. Significant relationships were also found between leakage, FBI interaction and attack initiation, but no significant relationship was found between leakage and mental health. The implications of these findings are discussed.
泄漏是暴力风险和威胁评估文献中提到的八种预警行为之一。先前的研究强调了泄密在单干恐怖分子中的相关性和普遍性;然而,对这一现象缺乏更详细的了解。本研究通过对美国受is启发的单行侠恐怖主义案件的法庭记录进行探索性分析,旨在扩大我们对这种行为的认识。分析了泄漏警告行为的一般模式,并检查了不同类型的泄漏,包括它们是从谁泄露的,它们是如何泄漏的,它们是否在线存在,以及它们是否发生在某些类型的攻击之前。研究发现,支持形式的泄密往往最常通过书面文本和网络泄露给公众,而意图和细节的泄露似乎更经常通过避免网络世界的口头交流泄露给同谋者。心理疏漏与心理健康无显著相关,疏漏与FBI互动与攻击发起有显著相关。讨论了这些发现的意义。
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引用次数: 4
Anti-Muslim discrimination and support for violent extremism: evidence from five large-N surveys 反穆斯林歧视和对暴力极端主义的支持:来自五个大n调查的证据
IF 2 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-03-04 DOI: 10.1080/19434472.2021.1892799
Sadi Shanaah
ABSTRACT Both academic and public policy accounts often draw a link between perceived anti-Muslim discrimination and support for violent Islamist extremism. However, robust empirical evidence is lacking. Such a link would be particularly worrying, given that anti-Muslim discrimination has been on the rise in the West. Are Muslims living in the West who experience or perceive anti-Muslim discrimination more likely to support violent Islamist extremism? This article tests this association with the help of five large-N nationally representative surveys of Muslims living in the US and the UK. In addition, the article also tests whether Muslims’ support for violent extremism increases when the experience or perception of anti-Muslim discrimination combines with (1) young age and (2) low identification with the majority population. The results are inconclusive, indicating that the link between anti-Muslim discrimination and support for violent Islamist extremism is likely more complicated.
学术和公共政策都经常将反穆斯林歧视与支持暴力伊斯兰极端主义联系起来。然而,缺乏强有力的经验证据。考虑到反穆斯林歧视在西方不断抬头,这样的联系尤其令人担忧。生活在西方的穆斯林,如果经历或感受到反穆斯林歧视,是否更有可能支持暴力的伊斯兰极端主义?本文通过对生活在美国和英国的穆斯林进行的五项具有全国代表性的大型调查来检验这种联系。此外,这篇文章还测试了穆斯林对暴力极端主义的支持是否会在反穆斯林歧视的经历或感知与(1)年轻和(2)与大多数人口的低认同相结合时增加。结果是不确定的,表明反穆斯林歧视和支持暴力伊斯兰极端主义之间的联系可能更为复杂。
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引用次数: 0
‘My journey to jihad’: featured stories in jihadi propaganda “我的圣战之旅”:圣战宣传的特色故事
IF 2 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-02-17 DOI: 10.1080/19434472.2021.1886154
Weeda Mehran, A. Lemieux
ABSTRACT In this research, we conduct a systematic comparative analysis of 366 stories extracted from English-language magazines by ISIS, Al Qaeda, Tehrik-e Taliban of Pakistan (TTP) and the Taliban. We employ the Information, Motivation, and Behavior Skills (IMB) model of behavior change to conduct in-depth qualitative and quantitative analysis of these stories. By focusing on stories featured in jihadi magazines, this research illustrates that (1) stories of ‘average’ jihadists can be effective persuasive tools, (2) the majority of the content of stories by all groups falls within the motivational component of the IMB model and that, (3) groups differ in their focus on various element of the IMB. For example, while Al Qaeda stories provide more informational content, other groups focus on motivational rhetoric.
在本研究中,我们对ISIS、基地组织、巴基斯坦塔利班运动(TTP)和塔利班从英语杂志中摘录的366篇报道进行了系统的比较分析。我们采用行为改变的信息、动机和行为技能(IMB)模型对这些故事进行深入的定性和定量分析。通过关注圣战杂志上的故事,本研究表明:(1)“普通”圣战分子的故事可以成为有效的说服工具;(2)所有群体的故事的大部分内容都属于IMB模型的激励成分;(3)不同群体对IMB的不同元素的关注不同。例如,虽然基地组织的故事提供了更多的信息内容,但其他团体则侧重于激励修辞。
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引用次数: 1
Cyclicality in non-state violence: theory and evidence 非国家暴力的周期性:理论与证据
IF 2 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-02-15 DOI: 10.1080/19434472.2021.1879897
M. Becker
ABSTRACT What explains recurrent fluctuations in violence within militant groups? Temporal swings in the number of attacks perpetrated are common, but lack a general explanation. I provide evidence of cycles in attacks, and provide a theory of why organizational levels of violence vary serially. First, due to the contradictions of non-state violence, there exist, simultaneously, upward and downward pressures on its use. By “contradictions,” I mean that violence is both beneficial and detrimental to an organization. It can secure public support and government concessions, but can also tarnish a group’s reputation and invite retaliatory violence. Second, since the relative strength of each type of pressure (upward or downward) varies inversely with how much it is accommodated, organizations face disincentives to pause at high or low levels of violence. Groups that shift tactics to accommodate one pressure find they have activated another. For example, a group that curtails violent attacks to avoid government repression finds it lacks media attention. These pressures incentivize a reprise in violence, causing the up-and-down pattern to repeat. Finally, the cyclical pattern is reinforced by endogenous interactions between militants’ political environments and their decision-making processes. I provide suggestive support for the arguments by examining the Basque group ETA.
如何解释武装组织内部暴力事件的反复波动?攻击次数的时间波动很常见,但缺乏一个通用的解释。我提供了攻击周期的证据,并提供了一种理论来解释为什么组织的暴力水平是连续变化的。首先,由于非国家暴力的矛盾,它的使用同时存在着上行和下行的压力。我所说的“矛盾”是指暴力对一个组织既有利又有害。它可以获得公众的支持和政府的让步,但也可能损害一个组织的声誉,并招致报复性暴力。其次,由于每一种压力的相对强度(向上或向下)与所能承受的程度成反比,组织在暴力程度高或低的情况下很难停下来。改变策略以适应一种压力的团体发现,他们已经激活了另一种压力。例如,一个减少暴力袭击以避免政府镇压的组织发现它缺乏媒体的关注。这些压力刺激了暴力的再次发生,导致上下波动的模式重复。最后,武装分子的政治环境和他们的决策过程之间的内生相互作用加强了这种周期性模式。我通过考察巴斯克组织埃塔为这些论点提供了暗示性的支持。
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引用次数: 0
Disruptive Islamism: ‘Islamic radicalisation’ in public discourse, and the strategies and impact of terrorist communication on refugees and host communities 颠覆性伊斯兰主义:公共话语中的“伊斯兰激进化”,以及恐怖主义传播对难民和收容社区的策略和影响
IF 2 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-01-29 DOI: 10.1080/19434472.2021.1877773
Yvonne Rowa
ABSTRACT The strategic communication of terrorist organisations and its influence on public discourse, particularly in the forced migrant context, is an under-researched area. This article argues that terrorist organisations have exploited their marketability in the radicalisation of public discourse. Their (non)discursive strategic communication has influenced public discourse, with impacts on policy and practice. Thirty-two interviews were conducted with civil society organisations and host communities, and complemented by eleven online refugee representations. In addition, the study drew from secondary case reviews of Al Shabaab and a former Islamist. The paper examines and presents key field research findings on the impact of strategic terrorist communication on refugees and host communities. Further, the paper highlights public representations of Islam(ism) and the disruptive character of Islamism brand management. The article additionally explores broader ramifications of terrorist communication on the concept of radicalisation. By examining the synergy between terrorist communication and the speech-acts of other actors, this article contends that besides being a useful concept, radicalisation is a social construct modelled by the perceptions, attitudes, opinions and actions of a coterie of actors. Overall, terrorist communication in rhetoric and action regulates public discourse that in turn inflames a reinforcing feedback loop of reciprocal radicalisation.
摘要恐怖组织的战略传播及其对公共话语的影响,特别是在被迫移民的背景下,是一个研究不足的领域。这篇文章认为,恐怖组织在公共话语的激进化中利用了其市场性。他们的(非)话语策略传播影响了公共话语,对政策和实践产生了影响。对民间社会组织和收容社区进行了32次采访,并辅以11次在线难民代表。此外,该研究还借鉴了对青年党和一名前伊斯兰主义者的二次案件审查。本文审查并介绍了关于战略恐怖主义传播对难民和收容社区影响的关键实地研究结果。此外,本文还强调了伊斯兰主义的公众表征和伊斯兰主义品牌管理的颠覆性特征。这篇文章还探讨了恐怖主义传播对激进化概念的更广泛影响。通过研究恐怖主义传播与其他行为者的言论行为之间的协同作用,本文认为,激进化除了是一个有用的概念外,还是一个由少数行为者的感知、态度、意见和行动建模的社会结构。总的来说,恐怖主义在言论和行动中的传播规范了公共话语,反过来又加剧了相互激进化的反馈循环。
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引用次数: 0
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Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political Aggression
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