Economic Analysis and Policy最新文献

英文中文

Optimal portfolio selection of China's green bond and stock markets: Evidence from the multi-frequency extreme risk connectedness

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.11.015

Wei-Qiang Huang, Jing Dai

This paper investigates the optimal portfolio of industry stocks with China's green bond (CBGB) at different time scales, through comparing minimum connectedness portfolio (MCoP1) and modified minimum connectedness portfolio (MCoP2) under the condition of minimizing extreme risk connectedness, as well as minimum VaR portfolio. First, we examine the ability of CBGB to provide diversification benefits for industry stocks at different scales, which employs extreme risk connectedness. Then, the portfolio performing optimally at each scale is explored by comparing specific performances of various portfolio methods. The empirical results show that: (1) CBGB is weakly related to industry stocks, whether in the time or frequency domain, and is the net receiver. (2) Most industry stocks play different roles (transmitter or receiver) in different scales, with time-varying characteristics. Therefore, industry stocks benefit highly from the diversification effects of CBGB, and their portfolio should possess frequency and time-varying characteristics. (3) Based on the comparison results of weight allocations, cumulative returns, and Sharpe ratios, the short-term optimal performance is achieved by MCoP2, while in medium- to long-term, MCoP1 outperforms MCoP2 and minimum VaR portfolio. This implies that considering extreme risk connectedness in the construction of portfolios can effectively enhance returns, but in the long term, market integration should also be taken into account.

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引用次数: 0

Shadow banking contraction and employment decisions in manufacturing firms: Empirical evidence from China's new asset management regulations 制造业企业影子银行收缩与就业决策：来自中国资产管理新规的经验证据

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.11.016

Zhengrong Yuan , Qiuzuo Yu

This study represents the inaugural exploration utilizing the 2018 "New Asset Management Regulation" (NAMR) as a quasi-natural experiment to examine the repercussions of the reduced scale of shadow banking, prompted by the regulation, on the employment scale of enterprises. Analyzing a dataset comprising Chinese manufacturing companies listed from 2015 to 2020, the empirical findings indicate a significant decline in the labor employment scale of companies exhibiting higher financialization levels post-implementation of the NAMR, as opposed to those with lower financialization levels. Mechanism analysis reveals that the policy heightens financing constraints and escalates debt default risks, thereby hindering employment in enterprises. The heterogeneity analysis demonstrates a more pronounced negative impact on employment in companies characterized by higher long-term use of short-term debt, diminished growth prospects, heightened involvement in shadow banking, and increased development levels in local shadow banking. Additionally, the policy primarily limits the employment size in firms that finance or engage in arbitrage through shadow banking, while also reducing the demand for low-educated labor within these firms. This study enhances understanding of the impact of shadow banking on the real economy. Moreover, it offers valuable insights for advancing the standardization and market-oriented development of asset management businesses.

本研究首次利用2018年“资产管理新规”（NAMR）作为准自然实验，考察监管促使影子银行规模缩小对企业就业规模的影响。通过对2015 - 2020年中国制造业上市公司数据的分析，实证发现金融化水平较高的企业在实施NAMR后，其劳动力就业规模显著下降，而金融化水平较低的企业则相反。机制分析表明，该政策加剧了融资约束，加剧了债务违约风险，从而阻碍了企业就业。异质性分析表明，在长期使用短期债务较高、增长前景减弱、参与影子银行较多、本地影子银行发展水平提高的公司中，对就业的负面影响更为明显。此外，该政策主要限制了通过影子银行融资或从事套利的公司的就业规模，同时也减少了这些公司对低学历劳动力的需求。本研究加深了对影子银行对实体经济影响的认识。为推进资产管理业务的规范化和市场化发展提供了有价值的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Does the Air Pollution Joint Prevention and Control Policy Work: Evidence from China 大气污染联防联控政策是否有效？来自中国的证据

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.11.013

Qin Xiao , Yixiao Jin , Rong Yu , Enze Zhang , Yuechuan Zhao

Developing countries face significant challenges in managing regional air pollution. While previous studies show the benefits of the Air Pollution Joint Prevention and Control (AJPC) policy, there needs to be more understanding of its implementation challenges. Using data from the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region in China and applying a tripartite evolutionary game (TEG) model along with a difference-in-differences (DID) method, our study talks about the effectiveness of AJPC policy. We find that the AJPC policy has positively impacted air quality. However, its effectiveness varies across regions and periods, making it difficult to achieve the original goals. Additionally, we identified challenges to implementing the policy, such as free-riding from governance spillover, the instability of central government regulation, and the limited policy-carrying capacity of micro-entities. Our findings highlight the complexity of regional pollution control and provide critical insights for refining pollution management strategies in developing countries, offering valuable guidance for policymakers aiming to enhance regional air quality control.

发展中国家在管理区域空气污染方面面临巨大挑战。虽然以往的研究显示了大气污染联防联控（AJPC）政策的益处，但还需要对其实施过程中的挑战有更多了解。利用中国京津冀（BTH）地区的数据，运用三方演化博弈（TEG）模型和差分法（DID），我们的研究探讨了大气污染联防联控政策的有效性。我们发现，AJPC 政策对空气质量产生了积极影响。但是，该政策在不同地区和不同时期的效果各不相同，因此很难实现最初的目标。此外，我们还发现了实施该政策所面临的挑战，如治理溢出带来的搭便车现象、中央政府监管的不稳定性以及微观实体的政策执行能力有限。我们的研究结果凸显了区域污染控制的复杂性，为完善发展中国家的污染管理策略提供了重要启示，为旨在加强区域空气质量控制的政策制定者提供了宝贵的指导。

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引用次数: 0

Does regional integration promote the improvement of the green production efficiency of tourism industry? 区域一体化是否促进了旅游业绿色生产效率的提高？

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.11.003

Di Xu , Pengfei Shi , Chunyan Wu , Yu Diao

This paper clarifies the essential connotation and mutual mechanism of regional integration and the green production efficiency of tourism industry (GPET) and verifies the effect of regional integration on the GPET. The results show that: (1) The GPET under the influence of regional integration shows an overall growth trend, the internal differences are gradually narrowing, and there exists significant spatial autocorrelation in the spatial pattern, with the High-High agglomeration in the east and the Low-Low agglomeration in the west. (2) Regional integration has a significant positive contribution to the GPET, but the spillover effect is not obvious. (3) The opening up and employment scale can significantly promote the GPET, but the local government's ability to intervene in the market, economic density and intensity of environmental regulation have the significant negative impact on the level of GPET in local. (4) Regional integration to promote high GPET is characterized by “multiple concurrency” and “asymmetry”. The types of high GPET drivers include “traveler flow-economic development” and “environmental protection-social security”.

阐明了区域一体化与旅游产业绿色生产效率的本质内涵和相互作用机制，并验证了区域一体化对旅游产业绿色生产效率的影响。结果表明：(1)区域一体化影响下的GPET总体呈增长趋势，内部差异逐渐缩小，空间格局上存在显著的空间自相关性，东部呈高-高集聚，西部呈低-低集聚。(2)区域一体化对GPET有显著的正向贡献，但溢出效应不明显。(3)对外开放和就业规模对GPET有显著的促进作用，但地方政府的市场干预能力、经济密度和环境规制强度对地方GPET水平有显著的负向影响。(4)区域一体化促进高GPET具有“多并发”和“不对称”的特点。高GPET驱动类型包括“旅游流量-经济发展”和“环境保护-社会保障”。

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引用次数: 0

Dynamic spillovers between Shanghai crude oil futures and China's green markets: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile connectedness approach 上海原油期货与中国绿色市场之间的动态溢出效应：来自分位数连通性方法的证据

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.11.006

Min Liu , Hongfei Liu , Weiying Ping

This paper provides a preliminary investigation of the dynamic relationship between crude oil and different green assets by examining the spillover effects between the Shanghai crude oil futures (INE), carbon emissions trading (CET), ESG stocks (ESG), clean energy stocks (CSI) and green bonds (GB) markets. The innovation of this paper is its adoption of the quantile-on-quantile connectedness approach to analyze the spillover effects that occur in these markets across various quantiles and provide more accurate and comprehensive empirical results. Our results can be summarized as follows. First, CSI and ESG are positively correlated with INE during the sample period, while CET and GB are negatively correlated with INE. Second, CET has strong potential to hedge against oil shocks during normal market states, while GB shows better hedging performance during extreme market states. Third, regardless of the quantile level, ESG and CSI play the role of primary information transmitters in the network, while GB and CET act more as net spillover recipients. These findings help oil investors to realign their portfolios for risk avoidance and provide policymakers with a reference for formulating policy measures.

本文通过考察上海原油期货（INE）、碳排放交易（CET）、ESG股票（ESG）、清洁能源股票（CSI）和绿色债券（GB）市场之间的溢出效应，初步探讨了原油与不同绿色资产之间的动态关系。本文的创新之处在于采用了分位数对分位数的连通性方法来分析这些市场在不同分位数上发生的溢出效应，提供了更准确、更全面的实证结果。我们的结果可以总结如下。首先，在样本期内，CSI和ESG与INE呈正相关，而CET和GB与INE呈负相关。其次，在正常市场状态下，CET具有较强的对冲石油冲击的潜力，而在极端市场状态下，GB表现出较好的对冲效果。第三，无论分位数水平如何，ESG和CSI在网络中都扮演着初级信息传递者的角色，而GB和CET则更多地扮演着净溢出接受者的角色。这些发现有助于石油投资者重新调整投资组合以规避风险，并为政策制定者制定政策措施提供参考。

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引用次数: 0

Green public procurement and firms' pollution emissions: Does demand-side environmental policy matter? 绿色公共采购与企业的污染排放：需求方环境政策重要吗？

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.11.011

Renjie Zhang , Guiyi Zhu

Environmental governance requires both production-side and demand-side approaches. Previous literature has extensively studied environmental regulatory policies on the production side, while the role of demand side factors has often been neglected. This study constructs a staggered difference-in-difference model to investigate the impact of Green Public Procurement (GPP) on firms' pollution emissions taking the green procurement lists enacted by the Chinese government as a quasi-natural experiment. The results demonstrate that being selected into the green procurement lists significantly reduces firms' pollution emissions, and the findings still hold after endogeneity tests and a series of robustness tests. We identified the mechanisms responsible for this effect. The reduction in firms' pollution emissions mainly results from energy transition, enhanced technological innovation, and improved end-of-pipe treatment capacity. Heterogeneity analyses indicate that the pollution reduction effect of GPP differs depending on the procurement implementation modalities and firm characteristics. Finally, we use China's domestic input-output table to calculate the indicators of upstream and downstream industry linkages and examine the production network spillover effects of GPP. The results show that GPP effectively reduces the pollution emissions of upstream and downstream firms through production network linkages. This study provides empirical evidence from China on the effectiveness of GPP as a demand-side policy in pollution reduction, and offers valuable policy insights for further improving the policy system of environmental governance.

环境治理需要从生产端和需求端两方面入手。以往的文献广泛研究了生产侧的环境监管政策，而需求侧因素的作用往往被忽视。本研究以中国政府颁布的绿色采购清单为准自然实验，构建了交错差分模型，研究绿色政府采购（GPP）对企业污染排放的影响。结果表明，入选绿色采购清单能显著减少企业的污染排放，而且在经过内生性检验和一系列稳健性检验后，研究结果仍然成立。我们确定了产生这种效应的机制。企业污染排放的减少主要源于能源转型、技术创新的加强以及末端治理能力的提高。异质性分析表明，GPP 的污染减排效果因采购实施方式和企业特征的不同而不同。最后，我们利用中国国内投入产出表计算上下游产业关联指标，考察 GPP 的生产网络溢出效应。结果表明，GPP 通过生产网络联系有效减少了上下游企业的污染排放。本研究提供了中国 GPP 作为需求侧政策在污染减排方面有效性的经验证据，为进一步完善环境治理政策体系提供了有价值的政策启示。

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引用次数: 0

Digital economy, CO2 emissions and China's environmental sustainable development— an analysis based on TVP-VAR model 数字经济、二氧化碳排放与中国环境可持续发展--基于 TVP-VAR 模型的分析

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.11.009

Xinyi Zhang , Yufan Chen , Tianqi Wang

The growth of digital economy and sustainable development of environment are important issues related to high-quality economic development in the new era. This paper selects the yearly data of China from 2007 to 2021, constructs the China's Environmental Performance Index(EPI), and establishes the TVP-VAR model to investigate the dynamic time-varying relationship among digital economy growth, CO₂ emissions, and environment sustainability over short, medium and long-term. The results indicate that the relationships among them are time-varying at all terms. Specifically, in first, the growth of the digital economy exerts a negative impulse on CO₂ emissions, with its immediate consequences being more pronounced than its prolonged impacts. Secondly, there exist positive impulses between the the digital economy and environment sustainability. CO₂ emissions has a negative impact on sustainable development of environment. Thirdly, they have same influencing tendencies at certain time points, but different impact degrees. The impact of the digital economy on environmental sustainable development has significantly increased since the COVID-19 outbreak. Therefore, the development of digital economy can effectively reduce CO₂ emissions and promote the sustainable development of the environment.

数字经济增长与环境可持续发展是新时代经济高质量发展的重要课题。本文选取中国 2007-2021 年的年度数据，构建中国环境绩效指数（EPI），并建立 TVP-VAR 模型，研究数字经济增长、二氧化碳排放与环境可持续发展之间的短、中、长期动态时变关系。结果表明，它们之间的关系在各期都是时变的。具体来说，首先，数字经济增长对二氧化碳排放产生负向影响，其直接后果比长期影响更为明显。其次，数字经济与环境可持续性之间存在正向促进作用。二氧化碳排放对环境的可持续发展有负面影响。第三，二者在特定时间点的影响趋势相同，但影响程度不同。COVID-19 爆发后，数字经济对环境可持续发展的影响明显增强。因此，发展数字经济可以有效减少二氧化碳排放，促进环境可持续发展。

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引用次数: 0

Political conformity and digital transformation: Evidence from China 政治服从与数字化转型：来自中国的证据

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.11.014

Haiyan Yang , Linlin Chen , Yuyu Zhang

This study investigates the influence of political conformity on digital transformation in Chinese family businesses from 2011 to 2020. We find that political conformity significantly boosts digital transformation by strengthening strategic leadership, technology focus, and organizational capabilities. It also fosters risk-taking, reduces agency costs, and eases financial constraints. The impact is more pronounced in situations in contexts with high economic policy uncertainty, when executives have limited IT knowledge, family members hold positions in the party committee, and the firm is geographically proximate to the political center, Beijing. Additionally, aligning political conformity with technology strategies not only advances digital transformation but also enhances the businesses' Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) profile and firm value.

本研究探讨了政治顺应性对 2011-2020 年中国家族企业数字化转型的影响。我们发现，政治顺应通过加强战略领导力、技术聚焦和组织能力，极大地促进了数字化转型。同时，它还能促进风险承担，降低代理成本，缓解财务约束。在经济政策不确定性较高、高管人员信息技术知识有限、家庭成员在党委中任职、企业地理位置靠近政治中心北京的情况下，这种影响更为明显。此外，使政治与技术战略保持一致不仅能推进数字化转型，还能提升企业的环境、社会和治理（ESG）形象和企业价值。

引用次数: 0

The impact of environmental regulation on enterprise green innovation 环境监管对企业绿色创新的影响

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.11.008

Qin Kun , Yao Chang , Niu Runkai

This paper evaluates the real effects of the environmental regulation at the firm level. Using the implementation of Chinese Air Pollution Prevention and Control in 2013 as a quasi-natural experiment,difference-in-differences estimation shows that: (1) environmental regulation significantly improve the application of green innovation by firms, and this relationship is robust to different specifications and alternative measures; (2) three possible channels are the improved levels of the environmental protection subsidy, total factor productivity (TFP) and environmental protection investment of enterprises; (3) our findings are particularly pronounced in subsamples with the application of utility green innovation and state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Overall, this paper reveals the micro-mechanisms behind the real effects of environmental regulation on firm green innovation, thus providing timely implications for regulators concerned with environmental protection.

本文评估了环境监管在企业层面的实际效果。以中国 2013 年实施的《大气污染防治法》为准自然实验，差分估计结果表明(1）环境规制显著改善了企业的绿色创新应用，并且这种关系对不同的规格和替代措施都是稳健的；（2）三个可能的渠道是企业环保补贴、全要素生产率（TFP）和环保投资水平的提高；（3）我们的研究结果在应用实用性绿色创新的子样本和国有企业中尤为明显。总之，本文揭示了环境规制对企业绿色创新实际影响背后的微观机制，从而为关注环境保护的监管者提供了及时的启示。

引用次数: 0

Employee stock ownership plans and controlling shareholders’ over-appointing of directors 员工持股计划和控股股东超额任命董事

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.11.001

Lei Zhou, Feng Wei

Using a large sample of Chinese non-financial listed firms from 2014 to 2021, we find that employee stock ownership plans (ESOPs) significantly reduce controlling shareholders’ over-appointing of directors, and this finding is robust after addressing endogeneity concerns. We then provide evidence to show that reducing the risk of control transfer and controlling shareholders’ private benefits of control are important channels in which ESOPs affect controlling shareholders’ over-appointing of directors. Furthermore, we find that effect of ESOPs on controlling shareholders’ over-appointing of directors is less pronounced when firms with stronger corporate governance. We also demonstrate that the type of ownership, the source of funding, and the lock-up period of ESOPs can affect the effectiveness of ESOPs.

通过对 2014 年至 2021 年中国非金融类上市公司的大样本研究，我们发现员工持股计划（ESOP）能显著减少控股股东对董事的过度任命，而且在解决了内生性问题后，这一结论是稳健的。然后，我们提供证据表明，降低控制权转移风险和控股股东的控制权私人利益是 ESOP 影响控股股东超额任命董事的重要渠道。此外，我们还发现，ESOP 对控股股东超额任命董事的影响在公司治理较强的企业中并不明显。我们还证明，ESOP 的所有权类型、资金来源和锁定期会影响 ESOP 的有效性。

引用次数: 0

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