Economic Analysis and Policy最新文献

英文中文

The effects of childcare subsidies on fertility and welfare 儿童保育补贴对生育率和福利的影响

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.11.031

Chuankun Kang , Wei Wang , Hua Yin , Qian Zhang

This paper develops a two-period OLG model that incorporates an endogenous fertility rate, the childcare service market, and the pension system. It examines the effects of government childcare subsidy expenditures on fertility rates, family welfare, and capital accumulation under two distinct financing modes. The results show that, under the non-tax financing mode, childcare subsidies can significantly increase the fertility rate, reduce the capital stock, and produce an asymmetrical U-shaped impact on family welfare. However, under the tax financing mode, the positive effect of childcare subsidies on fertility is weakened, the negative effect on capital accumulation becomes more pronounced, and adverse effects on household welfare emerge. Log-linearization analysis around the steady state, along with the examination of transitional dynamics, supports these steady-state results. Further analysis reveals that the optimal tax rate and subsidy rate under the tax financing mode are 3.14 % and 69.77 %, respectively. When parameters vary, the reasonable ranges for the tax rate and subsidy rate are 2–4 % and 50–84 %, respectively. Overall, childcare subsidies under the non-tax financing mode represent a relatively effective policy choice; however, considering policy sustainability, providing subsidies through tax financing is more feasible.

本文建立了一个包含内生生育率、托儿服务市场和养老金制度的两期OLG模型。本文考察了两种不同融资模式下政府托儿补贴支出对生育率、家庭福利和资本积累的影响。结果表明，在非税融资模式下，托儿补贴能够显著提高生育率，降低资本存量，对家庭福利产生不对称的u型影响。然而，在税收融资模式下，托儿补贴对生育率的正向影响减弱，对资本积累的负面影响更加明显，对家庭福利的不利影响显现。围绕稳态的对数线性化分析，以及对过渡动力学的检查，支持这些稳态结果。进一步分析发现，税收融资模式下的最优税率和补贴率分别为3.14%和69.77%。当参数变化时，税率和补贴率的合理范围分别为2 - 4%和50 - 84%。总体而言，非税融资模式下的托儿补贴是一种较为有效的政策选择；但考虑到政策可持续性，通过税收融资提供补贴更为可行。

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引用次数: 0

Mandatory industry disclosure and corporate tax avoidance: Evidence from Chinese listed firms 行业强制披露与企业避税：来自中国上市公司的证据

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.12.008

Limin Zhang , Yu Gu , Ying Yu , Lu Pan

Corporate tax avoidance undermines public finances and is widely deemed unethical, raising the question of whether greater corporate transparency can mitigate it. We investigate whether a Chinese stock exchange mandate for industry-specific disclosures can serve as an effective policy tool to curb corporate tax avoidance. Using panel data on Chinese A-share firms from 2007 to 2019 and a difference-in-differences design, we find that firms subject to the disclosure requirement experienced a significant decline in tax avoidance. We attribute this reduction to enhanced transparency and oversight, which heighten detection risk and increase the costs of aggressive tax planning. Consistent with this mechanism, the deterrent effect is most pronounced among firms with weaker external monitoring. Overall, our findings highlight regulatory disclosure as an effective governance tool, offering practical insights for policymakers seeking to strengthen corporate transparency and reduce tax avoidance.

企业避税破坏了公共财政，并被普遍认为是不道德的，这引发了一个问题：提高企业透明度能否缓解这种情况。我们研究了中国证券交易所对特定行业信息披露的强制要求是否可以作为遏制企业避税的有效政策工具。利用2007 - 2019年中国a股公司的面板数据和差异中的差异设计，我们发现受披露要求约束的公司避税率显著下降。我们将这种减少归因于提高透明度和监督，这增加了发现风险并增加了激进税收规划的成本。与这一机制相一致的是，威慑效应在外部监督较弱的企业中最为明显。总体而言，我们的研究结果强调了监管披露是一种有效的治理工具，为寻求加强公司透明度和减少避税的政策制定者提供了实用的见解。

引用次数: 0

Industry regulation and firm innovation: Evidence from national centralized drug procurement policy in China 行业监管与企业创新：来自中国国家药品集中采购政策的证据

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.12.013

Siyu Zhang , Yuexin Huang , Danglun Luo

Promoting innovation in pharmaceutical manufacturing is crucial for national health. This study investigates the impact of industry regulations on firm innovation by analyzing China's national centralized drug procurement (NCDP) policy. The findings indicate that the regulatory reform has effectively stimulated innovation among pharmaceutical enterprises, particularly non-state-owned ones, which lack political connections, are relatively small in scale, and operate in challenging market environments. The reform exerts its influence by changing product market competition patterns, including altering competition strategies, and intensifying competitive pressures. This study provides empirical evidence supporting the efficacy of industry regulations and offers insights for fostering innovation and development in pharmaceutical enterprises through the lens of market competition.

促进药品生产创新是国民健康的关键。本文通过对中国国家药品集中采购政策的分析，探讨行业监管对企业创新的影响。研究结果表明，监管改革有效地激发了医药企业的创新，特别是非国有医药企业，这些企业缺乏政治联系，规模相对较小，在充满挑战的市场环境中经营。改革通过改变产品的市场竞争格局，包括改变竞争策略，加剧竞争压力来产生影响。本研究为行业监管的有效性提供了实证支持，并从市场竞争的角度为促进医药企业创新发展提供了启示。

引用次数: 0

Green supply chain management project and firms’ cost of equity capital: Evidence from China 绿色供应链管理项目与企业股权资本成本：来自中国的证据

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.08.048

Zhujia Yin , Xingting Wang , Jiejin Xia , Chun-Ping Chang

Based on a quasi-natural experiment of establishing the green supply chain management project in China, we find that the green supply chain management project robustly lowers companies’ cost of equity capital. This impact is achieved through increased environmental information disclosure and investor attention. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the impact is stronger in companies with higher government environmental concerns, better supply chain efficiency, or cleaner industries. Additional examination indicates that the green supply chain management project raises the cost of equity capital for upstream companies, while simultaneously lowers it for downstream companies two years afterward. Overall, our findings highlight the significance of green supply chain management in influencing financial outcomes and investor choices.

基于在中国建立绿色供应链管理项目的准自然实验，我们发现绿色供应链管理项目显著降低了企业的股权资本成本。这种影响是通过增加环境信息披露和投资者关注来实现的。异质性分析表明，在政府环境关注程度较高、供应链效率较高或行业清洁的公司中，这种影响更强。进一步的研究表明，绿色供应链管理项目提高了上游企业的股权资本成本，同时在两年后降低了下游企业的股权资本成本。总体而言，我们的研究结果强调了绿色供应链管理在影响财务结果和投资者选择方面的重要性。

引用次数: 0

Heterogeneous capital of founding shareholders, dual-class share structure choice motivation, and firm value: Evidence from China's sci-tech innovation companies listed in the U.S 创立股东异质性资本、双层股权结构选择动机与公司价值——来自中国赴美上市科技创新公司的证据

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.11.026

Liang Wang, Shuang Liu, Yuanfei Wang

This paper selects China's Sci-Tech innovation companies listed in the U.S. from 2013 to 2022 as the initial sample. It constructs a multivariate panel regression model to empirically examine the relationship between the heterogeneous capital of founding shareholders, the dual-class share structure choice motivation, and firm value. The findings reveal that the heterogeneous capital of founding shareholders within a dual-class share structure significantly contributes to firm value. However, the motivation to acquire private benefits of control within the dual-class share structure does not significantly impact firm value. Meanwhile, the motivation to prevent the transfer of control rights negatively correlates with firm value. Furthermore, financing constraints partially mitigate the motivation for acquiring private benefits of control within the dual-class share structure but do not significantly affect the motivation to prevent the transfer of control rights. External monitoring reinforces the motivation to prevent the transfer of control rights in a dual-class share structure but does not moderate the motivation to acquire private control of benefits. The relationship between the separation of control and cash flow rights and firm value follows a U-shaped pattern.

本文选取2013 - 2022年在美国上市的中国科技创新公司作为初始样本。构建多元面板回归模型，实证检验了创始股东异质性资本、双层股权结构选择动机与企业价值之间的关系。研究发现，在双层股权结构下，创始股东的异质性资本对公司价值有显著贡献。然而，在双层股权结构下，获取私人控制权利益的动机对公司价值的影响并不显著。同时，防止控制权转移的动机与企业价值呈负相关。此外，融资约束在一定程度上缓解了双重股权结构下获取私人控制权利益的动机，但对防止控制权转移的动机没有显著影响。在双重股权结构下，外部监督强化了防止控制权转移的动机，但并不能缓和获得利益私人控制的动机。控制权和现金流权分离与企业价值之间的关系呈u型关系。

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引用次数: 0

Public data openness as an economic policy lever for sustainable tourism: Evidence on mechanisms, spillovers and heterogeneity from Chinese cities 公共数据开放作为可持续旅游的经济政策杠杆：来自中国城市的机制、溢出效应和异质性证据

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.12.029

Yiling Jiang , Yiling Lu , Xizhou Tian , Daiping Wei

With the rapid rise of the digital economy, public data openness has become a key driver of sustainable tourism development. However, research has paid limited attention to its mechanisms and regional heterogeneity. This study employs panel data from 291 Chinese cities spanning 2007 to 2023, analyzed through a Difference-in-Differences (DID) model and a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM). The analysis examines how public data openness shapes the green and sustainable development of the tourism economy. The empirical findings reveal that public data openness significantly promotes green and sustainable tourism growth, with service innovation and market efficiency functioning as key mediating pathways. In addition, economic development, resource integration, and data governance show positive and significant moderating effects. These regional conditions shape how public data openness influences sustainable tourism development. Furthermore, public data openness generates spatial spillover effects that contribute to the green and sustainable development of the tourism economy. These spillovers are most pronounced in regions with similar economic structures, and their intensity rises as the degree of data openness increases. Overall, this study contributes to strengthening the theoretical nexus between public data openness and sustainable tourism development. It further provides empirical evidence and policy insights to facilitate broader green economic transformation.

随着数字经济的快速崛起，公共数据开放已成为旅游可持续发展的关键驱动力。但对其机制和区域异质性的研究较少。本研究采用2007年至2023年291个中国城市的面板数据，通过差异中的差异（DID）模型和空间德宾模型（SDM）进行分析。该分析考察了公共数据开放如何塑造旅游经济的绿色和可持续发展。实证结果表明，公共数据开放显著促进旅游绿色可持续增长，其中服务创新和市场效率是关键中介路径。此外，经济发展、资源整合和数据治理具有显著的正向调节作用。这些区域条件决定了公共数据开放如何影响可持续旅游发展。此外，公共数据开放产生空间溢出效应，有利于旅游经济的绿色可持续发展。这些溢出效应在经济结构相似的地区最为明显，且随着数据开放程度的提高，溢出效应的强度也随之增大。总体而言，本研究有助于加强公共数据开放与旅游可持续发展之间的理论联系。它还为促进更广泛的绿色经济转型提供了经验证据和政策见解。

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引用次数: 0

Government procurement digitalization and corporate digital transformation: Evidence from China’s government procurement cloud platforms 政府采购数字化与企业数字化转型：来自中国政府采购云平台的证据

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.11.021

Kainan Xia , Lexin Zhao

This study utilizes data of China’s A-share listed companies from 2015 to 2022, using the launch of government procurement cloud platforms by China’s local governments as an exogenous policy shock, to study the impact of government procurement digitalization on corporate digital transformation. The results show that government procurement digitalization significantly promotes corporate digital transformation, encompassing the application of digital technologies, the development of internet-based business models, intelligent manufacturing, and the construction of modern information systems. The mechanisms behind the positive link are the demand-pull effect and the cost-reduction effect. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the promotional effect of government procurement digitalization on corporate digital transformation is more significant in enterprises with lower pre-policy digitalization levels, non-state-owned enterprises, and enterprises with higher pre-policy financing constraints. This study positions government procurement digitalization as an effective policy catalyst for corporate digital transformation, particularly benefiting enterprises with initial digitalization disadvantages.

本研究利用2015 - 2022年中国a股上市公司数据，以中国地方政府推出政府采购云平台为外生政策冲击，研究政府采购数字化对企业数字化转型的影响。研究结果表明，政府采购数字化对企业数字化转型具有显著的促进作用，包括数字化技术的应用、基于互联网的商业模式的发展、智能制造和现代信息系统的建设。这种积极联系背后的机制是需求拉动效应和成本降低效应。异质性分析表明，政府采购数字化对企业数字化转型的促进作用在政策前数字化水平较低的企业、非国有企业和政策前融资约束较高的企业中更为显著。本研究将政府采购数字化定位为企业数字化转型的有效政策催化剂，尤其有利于数字化初期处于劣势的企业。

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引用次数: 0

When expectations matter: The role of fiscal foresight in government spending shocks in Peru 当预期重要：财政远见在秘鲁政府支出冲击中的作用

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.12.006

Jose Aguilar , Erick Lahura

This paper estimates the macroeconomic effects of government spending in Peru while explicitly accounting for fiscal foresight—the possibility that economic agents anticipate future fiscal actions before they are implemented. We use a standard vector autoregressive (VAR) framework with recursive identification and incorporate quarterly government spending projections published by the Central Reserve Bank of Peru to isolate the anticipated component of fiscal policy. Unanticipated government spending shocks raise real GDP; however, their effects are systematically overstated when anticipated fiscal information is omitted. Anticipated spending shocks – captured through government spending projections – also generate positive and statistically significant effects on output. These findings remain robust to alternative measures of fiscal foresight, different recursive orderings, and the inclusion of additional control variables, including private consumption and terms of trade. The results highlight the importance of distinguishing between anticipated and unanticipated fiscal actions for credible empirical assessment of fiscal multipliers in emerging economies.

本文估算了秘鲁政府支出的宏观经济效应，同时明确考虑了财政预见——经济主体在未来财政行动实施前预测的可能性。我们使用具有递归识别的标准向量自回归（VAR）框架，并结合秘鲁中央储备银行发布的季度政府支出预测，以隔离财政政策的预期组成部分。意料之外的政府支出冲击提高了实际GDP；然而，当预期的财政信息被忽略时，它们的影响被系统性地夸大了。预期的支出冲击——通过政府支出预测反映出来——也会对产出产生积极的、统计上显著的影响。这些发现对于财政预见、不同递归排序以及包括私人消费和贸易条件在内的其他控制变量的替代措施仍然是强有力的。研究结果强调了区分预期和非预期财政行动对于对新兴经济体财政乘数进行可信的实证评估的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Actions according with words? Environmental regulation and pollutant emissions 言行一致？环境监管和污染物排放

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.12.022

Yun Bai , Xin’ai Zhang , Siyun Wang , Minghui Ma

The construction of a scientific and efficient ecological and environmental governance mechanism is a key pathway to achieving the coordinated unity of economic growth and sustainable development. Using the pollutant emission permit policy as a quasi-natural experiment, this study systematically evaluates the impact of market-based environmental regulation on pollutant emissions. The results show that market-based regulation significantly reduces pollutant emissions, reflecting an individual effect. At the same time, by raising environmental thresholds, it accelerates the exit of low-productivity firms and thereby compels firms to pursue green transformation, reflecting a market allocation effect. In addition, market-based regulation strengthens information disclosure, reduces adverse selection risks, and helps firms gain greater access to credit, while their competitiveness in non-green sectors remains unaffected. Further analysis indicates that market-based environmental regulation effectively promotes substantive green transformation, whereas government-led regulation tends to trigger greenwashing behaviors and encourages firms to relocate to regions with lower environmental costs. At the policy level, different types of regulation are complementary, with government-led measures delivering rapid results in situations of severe pollution, while market-based regulation fosters long-term, stable emission reductions and green transformation through incentives for green innovation and optimized capital allocation.

构建科学高效的生态环境治理机制是实现经济增长与可持续发展协调统一的重要途径。本文以污染物排放许可政策为准自然实验，系统评价了市场化环境规制对污染物排放的影响。结果表明，市场化调控显著降低了污染物排放，反映了个体效应。同时，通过提高环境门槛，加速了低生产率企业的退出，从而迫使企业进行绿色转型，体现了市场配置效应。此外，基于市场的监管加强了信息披露，降低了逆向选择风险，并帮助企业获得更多的信贷，同时它们在非绿色部门的竞争力不受影响。进一步分析表明，基于市场的环境规制有效地促进了实质性的绿色转型，而政府主导的环境规制则容易引发“漂绿”行为，并促使企业向环境成本较低的地区迁移。在政策层面，不同类型的监管是相辅相成的，在严重污染的情况下，政府主导的措施能迅速见效，而市场监管通过激励绿色创新和优化资本配置，促进长期稳定的减排和绿色转型。

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引用次数: 0

How does high-level institutional openness promote enterprise internationalization? Empirical evidence from China’s pilot free trade zones 高水平的制度开放如何促进企业国际化？来自中国自由贸易试验区的经验证据

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.12.021

Yuetao Yang , Yongqin Guo , Yan Zhang

In the context of the new era, high-level institutional openness has become a crucial external driving force for China's external circulation development, and an important strategic support for enterprises to move towards internationalization. This article uses micro level data from 2011 to 2022 at the enterprise level and employs a dual machine learning model to empirically analyze the impact of high-level institutional opening-up policies, represented by China's pilot free trade zones, on the internationalization development of enterprises. The research results show that the policies of the pilot free trade zone have significantly promoted the level of international development of enterprises, manifested in positive performance in terms of internationalization depth, breadth, and whether internationalization has been initiated. There are significant differences in the impact of policies in pilot free trade zones on the international development of different types of enterprises, with private enterprises and manufacturing enterprises having more significant effects. Mechanism testing shows that the policies of the pilot free trade zone have effectively promoted the international development of enterprises by assisting them in improving their technological innovation level, optimizing ESG performance, alleviating financing constraints, and strengthening inward connections. This study has certain policy reference value and significance for further demonstrating the effectiveness of high-level institutional openness in promoting external circulation.

在新时代背景下，高水平的制度开放已成为中国对外流通发展的重要外部动力，成为企业走向国际化的重要战略支撑。本文采用企业层面2011 - 2022年微观层面数据，采用双机器学习模型，实证分析以中国自由贸易试验区为代表的高级别制度性开放政策对企业国际化发展的影响。研究结果表明，自贸试验区各项政策显著提升了企业国际化发展水平，在国际化深度、国际化广度、国际化是否启动等方面均表现为正向绩效。自由贸易试验区政策对不同类型企业国际化发展的影响存在显著差异，民营企业和制造业企业的影响更为显著。机制测试表明，自贸试验区政策在帮助企业提高技术创新水平、优化ESG绩效、缓解融资约束、加强内向联系等方面，有效促进了企业的国际化发展。本研究对于进一步论证高层次制度开放促进对外流通的有效性具有一定的政策参考价值和意义。

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