Economic Analysis and Policy最新文献_第7页

Revenue-Sharing in China's Civil-Military Integration: Multi-Level Incentive Coordination and Optimization 中国军民融合中的收入共享：多层次激励协调与优化

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.12.039

Gaige Tu , Hao Chen

Civil-Military Integration (CMI) has become a strategic imperative as states pursue technological innovation, economic efficiency, and resource optimization, yet implementation is hindered by moral hazard and adverse selection within multi-level principal-agent chains. This study develops a dynamic, multi-task principal-agent model in the Holmström-Milgrom (H-M) tradition tailored to China's CMI systems. The model accommodates intermediaries that act simultaneously as both principals and agents, and employs a revenue-sharing contract to align incentives across layers, thereby promoting the high-quality and cost-efficient delivery of dual-use technologies. The model further integrates risk aversion, interdependent efforts, and incomplete contracts. Analytical results and comparative statics show that optimal revenue-sharing and fixed-transfer parameters are highly sensitive to agents' risk preferences and marginal cost structures. Effort spillover among agents has a material impact on aggregate output and shifts the optimal sharing ratio; we identify parameter thresholds under varying institutional and economic constraints. Numerical simulations are complemented by robustness checks, including Monte Carlo experiments, bootstrap resampling, and extreme scenario analyses. Validation based on representative Chinese CMI projects (e.g., the Beidou-3 navigation system, J-20 fighter aircraft, and Y-20 transport aircraft) further confirms that the proposed mechanism remains stable across heterogeneous environments and is consistent with observed implementation outcomes. Policy recommendations include real-time performance monitoring, stratified incentives matched to agent characteristics and risk attitudes, and flexible, renegotiable clauses to accommodate external uncertainty. The study provides a formal, behaviorally grounded contract design that improves incentive alignment and operational efficiency in complex CMI systems.

军民融合（CMI）已成为各国追求技术创新、经济效率和资源优化的战略要求，但在多层次的委托代理链中，其实施受到道德风险和逆向选择的阻碍。本研究以Holmström-Milgrom （H-M）传统为基础，建立了一套适合中国CMI系统的动态多任务委托代理模型。该模式容纳了同时作为委托人和代理人的中介机构，并采用收入分享合同来协调各层的激励措施，从而促进高质量和具有成本效益的双重用途技术的交付。该模型进一步整合了风险规避、相互依赖的努力和不完全契约。分析结果和比较统计结果表明，最优收益分配和固定转移参数对代理人的风险偏好和边际成本结构高度敏感。代理人之间的努力溢出对总产出产生实质性影响，使最优分担比发生偏移；我们在不同的制度和经济约束下确定参数阈值。数值模拟辅以鲁棒性检查，包括蒙特卡罗实验、自举重采样和极端情景分析。基于具有代表性的中国CMI项目（例如，北斗-3导航系统，J-20战斗机和Y-20运输机）的验证进一步证实了所提出的机制在异构环境中保持稳定，并且与观察到的实施结果一致。政策建议包括实时绩效监测，与代理人特征和风险态度相匹配的分层激励，以及灵活的、可协商的条款，以适应外部不确定性。该研究提供了一种正式的、基于行为的合同设计，可以提高复杂CMI系统中的激励一致性和操作效率。

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引用次数: 0

Top executives’ military experiences, economic policy uncertainty, business strategy, and corporate social responsibilities 高层管理人员的军事经历、经济政策的不确定性、商业战略和企业社会责任

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.12.028

Yifei Zhang , Huan Wang , Yun Li , Weizhang Sun

This study explores uncharted territory by investigating the propensity of top executives with military experience to engage in corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities, even amidst economic policy uncertainty. Drawing upon data from Chinese A-share listed companies spanning the years 2010–2020 and employing Stata 15.1 for analysis, our research uncovers significant and enlightening findings. In a landscape characterized by dynamic economic policy shifts and elevated uncertainty, our study reveals that top executives with military backgrounds exhibit a pronounced inclination towards CSR performance. What's particularly groundbreaking is the discovery that their commitment to CSR intensifies in the face of heightened economic policy uncertainty. Business strategy plays a pivotal role as it mediates the relationship between military experiences and CSR outcomes. Notably, our investigation unveils the exceptional dedication to CSR among executives with military backgrounds in state-owned enterprises. These results provide fresh and actionable insights for corporate leaders, policymakers, and stakeholders seeking to navigate CSR challenges amid uncertain economic climates. Our research underscores the relevance of executive backgrounds as a strategic asset in advancing CSR efforts. In summary, this study contributes to the evolving discourse on CSR and ethical decision-making by shedding light on the unique CSR proclivities of top executives with military experience, even amidst economic policy turbulence. Our findings underscore the pertinence of considering these executives' backgrounds and strategic choices when cultivating CSR initiatives within organizations.

本研究通过调查具有军事经验的高级管理人员参与企业社会责任（CSR）活动的倾向，探索了未知领域，即使在经济政策不确定的情况下。利用2010-2020年中国a股上市公司的数据，采用Stata 15.1进行分析，我们的研究发现具有重要的启发性。在经济政策动态变化和不确定性上升的背景下，我们的研究表明，具有军事背景的高管表现出对企业社会责任绩效的明显倾向。尤其具有开创性的是，他们发现，在经济政策不确定性加剧的情况下，他们对企业社会责任的承诺会加强。企业战略在军事经验与企业社会责任结果之间起着重要的中介作用。值得注意的是，我们的调查揭示了国有企业中具有军事背景的高管对企业社会责任的特殊奉献精神。这些结果为企业领导人、政策制定者和利益相关者在不确定的经济环境中寻求应对企业社会责任挑战提供了新的、可操作的见解。我们的研究强调了高管背景作为推进企业社会责任工作的战略资产的相关性。总之，本研究通过揭示具有军事经验的高管在经济政策动荡中独特的企业社会责任倾向，为不断发展的企业社会责任和道德决策话语做出了贡献。我们的研究结果强调了在组织内部培养企业社会责任计划时，考虑这些高管的背景和战略选择的相关性。

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引用次数: 0

Can Trade Liberalisation Promote Common Prosperity?— Empirical Evidence from Chinese Cities 贸易自由化能促进共同繁荣吗？——来自中国城市的经验证据

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.10.022

Tianchen Wang , Kangyin Lyu , Qingyang Li

Within the framework of China’s model of modernisation, common prosperity has become a central policy goal, with openness—especially through trade liberalisation—serving as a key mechanism. This study investigates whether trade liberalisation promotes common prosperity. To this end, it analyses panel data from 284 Chinese cities between 2000 and 2020, combined with micro-level data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS). The results demonstrate that trade liberalisation significantly increases household income, reduces income inequality, and enhances intergenerational income mobility. Mechanism analysis indicates that these effects are a consequence of job creation, labour mobility, and human capital accumulation. Heterogeneity analysis further reveals that border cities, high-technology cities, and larger urban areas benefit more significantly, with export liberalisation assuming a more prominent role than import liberalisation due to their distinct transmission channels. Overall, the findings suggest that trade liberalisation fosters economic growth and reconciles efficiency with equity, advancing the goal of common prosperity.

在中国现代化模式的框架内，共同繁荣已成为一个中心政策目标，开放——尤其是通过贸易自由化——是一个关键机制。本研究探讨贸易自由化是否能促进共同繁荣。为此，该研究分析了2000年至2020年间中国284个城市的面板数据，并结合了中国家庭面板研究（CFPS）的微观层面数据。结果表明，贸易自由化显著提高了家庭收入，减少了收入不平等，增强了代际收入流动性。机制分析表明，这些效应是就业创造、劳动力流动和人力资本积累的结果。异质性分析进一步表明，边境城市、高技术城市和较大的城市地区受益更为显著，由于其不同的传播渠道，出口自由化的作用比进口自由化更为突出。总体而言，研究结果表明，贸易自由化促进了经济增长，协调了效率与公平，推进了共同繁荣的目标。

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引用次数: 0

Italy's citizens' income program as a compensatory mechanism. A spatial analysis of regional disparities in welfare policies 意大利的公民收入计划作为一种补偿机制。福利政策区域差异的空间分析

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.12.032

Francesco Aiello , Graziella Bonanno , Lucia Errico , Sandro Rondinella

The "Reddito di cittadinanza" (CIS, Citizens' Income Support) provides cash transfers to low-income households. Its distribution across Italian municipalities exhibits clear geographical concentration and spatial interdependence. Using 2021 municipal data, Spatial Durbin Models show that socio-economic factors significantly influence both CIS participation rates and the amount of support received, with significant spillovers across neighboring municipalities. We find a robust inverse relationship between CIS and municipal spending on social services, consistent with CIS operating as a compensatory mechanism where local social spending is thin, especially in Southern regions. Results are stable across alternative spatial specifications and robust to an IV strategy that treats local social spending as endogenous. While CIS provides short-term relief for vulnerable individuals, persistent regional disparities in social service spending highlight the need for integrated national-local policies to address long-term socio-economic inequalities.

“公民收入支助计划”向低收入家庭提供现金转移支付。它在意大利各城市的分布表现出明显的地理集中和空间相互依存。利用2021年的城市数据，空间德宾模型显示，社会经济因素显著影响独联体参与率和获得的支持数量，并在邻近城市之间产生显著溢出效应。我们发现独联体与市政社会服务支出之间存在强大的负相关关系，这与独联体作为一种补偿机制的运作是一致的，在地方社会支出薄弱的地方，尤其是在南方地区。结果在不同的空间规格中是稳定的，并且对于将当地社会支出视为内生的IV策略是稳健的。虽然独联体为易受伤害的个人提供了短期救济，但社会服务支出方面持续存在的区域差距突出表明需要制定综合的国家-地方政策来解决长期的社会经济不平等问题。

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引用次数: 0

Do industry tournament incentives affect labor investment efficiency? 产业竞赛激励是否影响劳动力投资效率？

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.12.037

Mingmao Deng , Chun Mei

This research examines the extent to which industry tournament incentives influence firms’ labor investment efficiency. We develop two opposing hypotheses based on the potential advantageous and adverse impacts of these incentives. Consistent with the favorable perspective, our empirical analyses reveal a statistically significant and economically meaningful positive relationship, suggesting that greater industry tournament incentives enhance labor investment efficiency. Analyses of subsamples indicate that such incentives mainly alleviate labor overinvestment, especially by curbing over-hiring and over-firing, with little influence on underinvestment cases. Additional cross-sectional tests reveal that this positive influence is more pronounced in firms characterized by greater agency frictions and weaker governance monitoring. Overall, these results contribute to the body of work on executive incentives by underscoring the disciplinary function of industry tournament incentives in labor allocation decisions.

本研究考察了产业竞赛激励对企业劳动投资效率的影响程度。基于这些激励的潜在有利和不利影响，我们提出了两个相反的假设。实证分析结果表明，产业竞赛激励对劳动投资效率的提升具有显著的统计学意义和经济意义。子样本分析表明，这些激励措施主要缓解了劳动力过度投资，特别是通过抑制过度雇佣和过度解雇，对投资不足的情况影响不大。另外的横截面测试表明，这种积极影响在机构摩擦较大、治理监督较弱的公司中更为明显。总的来说，这些结果通过强调行业竞赛激励在劳动力分配决策中的纪律功能，有助于对高管激励的工作。

引用次数: 0

Can carbon commitments enhance the consistency of carbon disclosure and carbon performance? A natural experiment based on China's carbon neutrality commitment 碳承诺能提高碳披露和碳绩效的一致性吗？基于中国碳中和承诺的自然实验

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.12.014

Jianghe Chen, Fengying Hu

Increasing the consistency between corporate carbon disclosures and carbon performance is essential for combating climate change. This study utilizes China’s 2020 carbon neutrality commitment as a natural experiment. Employing a difference-in-differences (DID) methodology, the research examines how carbon commitments influence the consistency of corporate carbon disclosure and carbon performance. The findings indicate that carbon commitments significantly enhance both carbon disclosure and carbon performance, while also fostering greater consistency between the two. Mechanism analysis suggests that carbon commitments mainly promote consistency by influencing corporate executives’ green perceptions and attracting heightened external green attention. Additional analysis reveals that these effects are more pronounced in regions with stronger external regulatory pressures and in firms with robust internal controls, higher-quality financial disclosures, and more advanced digital transformations. These insights offer a deeper understanding of the policy effects of carbon commitments and the factors that influence corporate carbon governance.

提高企业碳信息披露与碳绩效之间的一致性对于应对气候变化至关重要。本研究利用中国2020年碳中和承诺作为自然实验。采用差异中的差异（DID）方法，本研究考察了碳承诺如何影响企业碳披露和碳绩效的一致性。研究结果表明，碳承诺显著提高了碳披露和碳绩效，同时也促进了两者之间的一致性。机制分析表明，碳承诺主要通过影响企业高管的绿色感知和吸引外部绿色关注来促进一致性。其他分析表明，在外部监管压力较大的地区，以及在内部控制健全、财务披露质量较高、数字化转型更先进的公司，这些影响更为明显。这些见解提供了对碳承诺的政策效应和影响公司碳治理的因素的更深层次的理解。

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引用次数: 0

From oil reliance to diversified growth: The role of mega events and large-scale projects in two resource-rich economies 从依赖石油到多元化增长：大型活动和大型项目在两个资源丰富经济体中的作用

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.09.021

Mouyad Alsamara, Karim Barkat, Zouhair Mrabet, Karim Mimouni

This study investigates the impact of mega events and large-scale projects on economic diversification and sustainability in two Gulf Cooperation Council countries, namely Qatar and Saudi Arabia from 1996 to 2022. While these countries have emphasized the role of economic diversification as a crucial aspect to mitigate their dependence on hydrocarbons, the extent of their success in achieving this goal remains relatively unknown. This study employs advanced econometric methods, including an Autoregressive Distributed Lag model with structural breaks and a time-varying Granger causality analysis, to explore the impact of mega events on economic growth and diversification. We find that government expenditure positively affects GDP growth, especially after the announcement of mega events. Interestingly, this positive effect is more pronounced in the non-oil sector compared to the oil sector. Thus, our results demonstrate how these events affect a country’s diversification and sustainability efforts, ultimately reducing the reliance on oil and gas revenues. We also find that labor and capital accumulation play a more substantial role in fostering economic growth in the non-oil sector compared to the oil sector. Our results are of paramount importance to policymakers and stakeholders with several policy implications.

本研究考察了1996年至2022年两个海湾合作委员会国家卡塔尔和沙特阿拉伯的大型活动和大型项目对经济多样化和可持续性的影响。虽然这些国家强调经济多样化的作用是减轻对碳氢化合物依赖的一个关键方面，但它们在实现这一目标方面的成功程度仍然相对未知。本研究采用先进的计量经济学方法，包括具有结构断裂的自回归分布滞后模型和时变格兰杰因果分析，探讨重大事件对经济增长和多元化的影响。我们发现政府支出对GDP增长有正向影响，特别是在重大事件宣布后。有趣的是，与石油行业相比，这种积极影响在非石油行业更为明显。因此，我们的研究结果表明，这些事件如何影响一个国家的多样化和可持续性努力，最终减少对石油和天然气收入的依赖。我们还发现，与石油部门相比，非石油部门的劳动力和资本积累在促进经济增长方面发挥了更大的作用。我们的研究结果对政策制定者和利益相关者至关重要，具有若干政策意义。

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引用次数: 0

Does digital governance improve urban carbon balance? Evidence from China’s e-governance pilot 数字治理能改善城市碳平衡吗？来自中国电子政务试点的证据

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.12.030

Jiansheng You

Governments worldwide are accelerating digital governance, yet its effects on urban carbon balance remain unclear. This paper argues that e-governance improves carbon balance by reducing information and enforcement frictions that would otherwise allow high-emission activities to persist. Results show that pilot cities experience significantly greater improvements in urban carbon balance than non-pilot cities, reflecting a more efficient allocation of regulatory resources rather than broad macroeconomic trends. The gains are more evident in cities with stronger internet infrastructure, more stable political incentives, and less resource-dependent economic structures. Moreover, in regions with stricter environmental enforcement, higher public environmental concern, and greater green innovation capacity, the effect is amplified, indicating that digital governance reinforces existing regulatory and societal pressures. Spatial spillover evidence further shows that the improvement extends beyond treated cities, fostering regional advancement. The study identifies an institutional channel through which information capacity shapes environmental performance, complementing existing literature that focuses mainly on technological or industrial drivers.

世界各国政府正在加速数字治理，但其对城市碳平衡的影响尚不清楚。本文认为，电子政务通过减少信息和执法摩擦来改善碳平衡，否则高排放活动将持续下去。结果表明，试点城市的碳平衡改善明显大于非试点城市，这反映了监管资源的更有效配置，而不是宏观经济的普遍趋势。在互联网基础设施更完善、政治激励更稳定、经济结构对资源依赖程度更低的城市，这种收益更为明显。此外，在环境执法更严格、公众环境关注度更高、绿色创新能力更强的地区，这种效应被放大，表明数字治理加剧了现有的监管和社会压力。空间溢出证据进一步表明，这种改善延伸到了受治疗城市之外，促进了区域进步。该研究确定了一个制度渠道，通过该渠道信息能力塑造环境绩效，补充了主要关注技术或工业驱动因素的现有文献。

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引用次数: 0

Political connection formation and firm performance: Evidence from China 政治关系形成与企业绩效：来自中国的证据

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.12.025

Tao Bai , Youzong Xu , Xiao Pan

This paper investigates the relationship between political connections and firm performance by exploring the mechanisms underneath political connection formation and the determining factor(s) of these mechanisms. We argue that there are two mechanisms, promotive and exploitative, upon which political connections are formed, and these mechanisms are determined by connecting officers’ exploitative power: Political connections with political officials who have strong (weak) exploitative power are more likely to be formed upon the exploitative (promotive) mechanism. Political connections formed upon the promotive mechanism positively affect connected firms’ performance, while the influences of those formed upon the exploitative mechanism are negative. Using China's recent Anti-Corruption Campaign as a natural experiment, we test our arguments using a comprehensive data set on publicly listed non-state-controlled firms in China from 2008 to 2016 and find evidence supporting our arguments. Our findings provide explanations to why previous literature finds conflicting results on the influences of political connections and why firms hold political connections that negatively affect their performance. Our empirical results also show that political connections with executive-branch political officials tend to negatively influence connected firms’ performance, and the influences of political connections with legislative-branch political officials tend to be positive. This finding not only suggests that policies restricting executive-branch political officials’ exploitative power may help improve firm performance but also highlights the importance of considering the heterogeneity between political connections in different branches when studying the interactions between industries and government authorities. This heterogeneity has been under-considered in extant literature.

本文通过探究政治联系形成的机制及其决定因素来研究政治联系与企业绩效之间的关系。我们认为，政治联系的形成有促进机制和剥削机制两种机制，而这些机制是由军官剥削权力的连接决定的：剥削权力强（弱）的政治官员更有可能在剥削（促进）机制上形成政治联系。在促进机制下形成的政治关系对关联企业绩效有正向影响，而在剥削机制下形成的政治关系对关联企业绩效有负向影响。我们将中国最近的反腐运动作为一个自然实验，使用2008年至2016年中国非国有上市公司的综合数据集来检验我们的论点，并找到支持我们论点的证据。我们的研究结果解释了为什么以前的文献在政治关系的影响上发现了相互矛盾的结果，以及为什么企业拥有政治关系会对其绩效产生负面影响。我们的实证结果还表明，与行政部门政治官员的政治关系往往会对关联企业的绩效产生负面影响，而与立法部门政治官员的政治关系往往会产生积极影响。这一发现不仅表明限制行政部门政治官员剥削权力的政策可能有助于提高企业绩效，而且还强调了在研究行业与政府当局之间的相互作用时考虑不同部门政治关系之间异质性的重要性。这种异质性在现有文献中没有得到充分的考虑。

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引用次数: 0

When expectations matter: The role of fiscal foresight in government spending shocks in Peru 当预期重要：财政远见在秘鲁政府支出冲击中的作用

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.12.006

Jose Aguilar , Erick Lahura

This paper estimates the macroeconomic effects of government spending in Peru while explicitly accounting for fiscal foresight—the possibility that economic agents anticipate future fiscal actions before they are implemented. We use a standard vector autoregressive (VAR) framework with recursive identification and incorporate quarterly government spending projections published by the Central Reserve Bank of Peru to isolate the anticipated component of fiscal policy. Unanticipated government spending shocks raise real GDP; however, their effects are systematically overstated when anticipated fiscal information is omitted. Anticipated spending shocks – captured through government spending projections – also generate positive and statistically significant effects on output. These findings remain robust to alternative measures of fiscal foresight, different recursive orderings, and the inclusion of additional control variables, including private consumption and terms of trade. The results highlight the importance of distinguishing between anticipated and unanticipated fiscal actions for credible empirical assessment of fiscal multipliers in emerging economies.

本文估算了秘鲁政府支出的宏观经济效应，同时明确考虑了财政预见——经济主体在未来财政行动实施前预测的可能性。我们使用具有递归识别的标准向量自回归（VAR）框架，并结合秘鲁中央储备银行发布的季度政府支出预测，以隔离财政政策的预期组成部分。意料之外的政府支出冲击提高了实际GDP；然而，当预期的财政信息被忽略时，它们的影响被系统性地夸大了。预期的支出冲击——通过政府支出预测反映出来——也会对产出产生积极的、统计上显著的影响。这些发现对于财政预见、不同递归排序以及包括私人消费和贸易条件在内的其他控制变量的替代措施仍然是强有力的。研究结果强调了区分预期和非预期财政行动对于对新兴经济体财政乘数进行可信的实证评估的重要性。

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引用次数: 0