Economic Analysis and Policy最新文献

英文中文

Government sanctions to incentivize costly cooperation and deter defection 政府制裁是为了激励代价高昂的合作和阻止叛逃

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.018

Kjell Hausken , Vicki M. Bier

A government sanctions individuals to cooperate rather than defect when facing adverse situations. Cooperation is costly and may for example entail vaccination against disease or other precautions against risk. The government announces how much it will sanction defectors in stage 1, while individuals cooperate or defect in stage 2. Cooperation increases when sanctions increase relative to the cooperation cost. Individuals have different and probabilistically drawn cooperation costs. The article compares the government’s optimal strategy with the exogenous solutions of mandating cooperation or allowing complete laissez faire. A separating equilibrium is developed where individuals with cooperation costs below some threshold choose to cooperate, while those with higher cooperation costs defect. Equilibrium government sanctions are compared with non-equilibrium government sanctions ranging from no sanctions to maximum sanctions. The fixed-policy two-stage model is extended to an adaptive multi-period model, where sanctions evolve over time based on observed cooperation rates, yielding higher targeted cooperation with modest utility trade-offs. Sanctions to obtain 100% cooperation may be infinitely costly since some individuals may be categorically opposed to cooperation. The article shows how the government may sanction to obtain a specified cooperation percentage when the individuals’ cooperation costs are uniformly distributed. This model provides actionable insights for designing sanction policies to achieve socially optimal cooperation levels, such as high vaccination rates, while minimizing costs to both governments and individuals.

面对不利情况时，政府鼓励个人合作而不是叛变。合作代价高昂，例如可能需要接种预防疾病的疫苗或采取其他预防风险的措施。政府在第一阶段公布对逃北者的制裁力度，在第二阶段公布个人的合作或逃北。当制裁相对于合作成本增加时，合作就会增加。个体的合作成本是不同的，而且是概率性的。本文将政府的最优策略与强制合作或完全放任的外生解决方案进行了比较。当合作成本低于某一阈值时，个体选择合作，而合作成本较高的个体选择背叛，形成了一种分离均衡。将均衡政府制裁与非均衡政府制裁进行比较，从不制裁到最大制裁。固定政策两阶段模型被扩展为自适应多时期模型，其中制裁根据观察到的合作率随着时间的推移而变化，以适度的效用权衡产生更高的目标合作。为了获得100%的合作而采取的制裁可能会付出无限的代价，因为有些人可能会断然反对合作。本文分析了在个体合作成本均匀分配的情况下，政府如何制裁以获得特定的合作比例。该模型为制定制裁政策提供了可操作的见解，以实现社会最优的合作水平，例如高疫苗接种率，同时最大限度地降低政府和个人的成本。

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引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to “Jump further or climb higher? Impact of different export upgrading strategies on exporter survival” [Economic Analysis and Policy, Volume 88, December 2025, Pages 2098-2115] “跳得更远还是爬得更高？”不同出口升级策略对出口商生存的影响”[经济分析与政策，第88卷，2025年12月，第2098-2115页]

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.020

Yi Zhou , Xianjuan Chen , Donghan Zou

引用次数: 0

Can digital transformation contribute to high-quality energy development: Evidence from China 数字化转型能否促进高质量能源发展：来自中国的证据

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.014

Yuhuan Zhao, Jia-hao Wu

As a new engine of technological change, digital transformation has a significant impact on high-quality energy development (HQED). Using Chinese provincial panel data from 2011 to 2024, this study constructs a two-way fixed-effects model to empirically investigate the impact of digital transformation on HQED. We further examine the influence of policy support for digital transformation on HQED. We find that digital transformation significantly contributes to HQED and this finding holds following a series of robustness and endogeneity tests. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the positive effect is not universal but is primarily observed in the eastern and western regions and in regions with low energy intensity. The effects of digital transformation foundations and digital transformation labor are the most pronounced of the digital transformation sub-indicators. Mechanism analysis reveals that green technological innovation, industrial robot application, and education improvement are key channels through which digital transformation affects HQED. Furthermore, moderating and threshold models reveal that policy support can significantly enhance the positive effects of digital transformation on HQED, and the effect exhibits a nonlinear trend of marginal incrementality as policy support increases. This study provides new insights for synchronizing digitization and HQED, offering policymakers empirical evidence of the value of leveraging digital upgrades as a sustainable driver of energy development.

作为技术变革的新引擎，数字化转型对能源高质量发展具有重要影响。本文利用2011 - 2024年中国省级面板数据，构建双向固定效应模型，实证考察数字化转型对高绩效教育的影响。我们进一步研究了数字化转型的政策支持对HQED的影响。我们发现数字化转型对HQED有显著贡献，这一发现在一系列稳健性和内质性测试后成立。异质性分析表明，东部和西部地区以及能源强度较低的地区具有显著的正向效应，但并非普遍存在。数字化转型基础和数字化转型劳动力的影响是数字化转型子指标中最明显的。机制分析表明，绿色技术创新、工业机器人应用和教育改进是数字化转型影响HQED的关键渠道。此外，调节模型和阈值模型显示，政策支持显著增强了数字化转型对HQED的正向效应，且随着政策支持的增加，这种效应呈现出边际递增的非线性趋势。本研究为同步数字化和HQED提供了新的见解，为政策制定者提供了利用数字化升级作为能源发展可持续驱动力的价值的经验证据。

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引用次数: 0

Evaluation of the economic efficiency of a wind turbine considring wind shear in the blade design 叶片设计中考虑风切变的风力机经济性评价

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.017

Agnieszka Dorota Woźniak , Aldona Kluczek

The economic efficiency of wind turbines is a key driver of the energy transition, particularly as global demand for electricity continues to rise. Small-scale wind systems, especially in distributed energy models, require both technical and financial optimization to ensure feasibility. This study proposes a novel approach by integrating vertical wind shear and terrain conditions into both aerodynamic rotor blade design and economic evaluation. The research demonstrates that accounting for vertical wind speed profiles and terrain conditions significantly enhance turbine efficiency and improve economic outcomes. By optimizing blade geometry based on local wind characteristics, this study shows how these adjustments can positively influence key economic indicators like Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Levelized Cost of Electricity, making investments more profitable. Applied to a 10-kW turbine under Polish inland conditions, the shear-aware design reduces LCOE from 0.35 to 0.26 €/kWh and raises IRR from −6% to +7%, with a payback of about six years for the optimized case. A 1000-run Monte Carlo analysis confirms that wind speed and electricity price are the most influential drivers, and that profitability remains sensitive to their joint variability. After a 13-year project horizon, the shear-optimized turbine achieves a positive NPV of ∼105 k€, compared with ∼97 k€ under the uniform-flow assumption. This confirms that accounting for vertical wind speed gradients significantly accelerates investment recovery and enhances long-term profitability

These findings emphasize the importance of localized blade optimization and site-specific economic modelling. The research provides practical insights for policymakers and investors supporting the deployment of cost-effective distributed wind energy systems.

风力涡轮机的经济效率是能源转型的关键驱动因素，尤其是在全球电力需求持续增长的情况下。小规模风力发电系统，特别是分布式能源模式，需要在技术和财务上进行优化，以确保可行性。该研究提出了一种将垂直风切变和地形条件整合到气动转子叶片设计和经济评估中的新方法。研究表明，考虑垂直风速廓线和地形条件可以显著提高涡轮效率，改善经济效益。通过根据当地风力特征优化叶片几何形状，本研究显示了这些调整如何对净现值、内部收益率（IRR）和平净电力成本等关键经济指标产生积极影响，从而使投资更有利可图。应用于波兰内陆条件下的10kw涡轮机，剪切感知设计将LCOE从0.35欧元/千瓦时降低到0.26欧元/千瓦时，将IRR从- 6%提高到+7%，优化案例的投资回收期约为6年。一项1000次运行的蒙特卡罗分析证实，风速和电价是最具影响力的驱动因素，盈利能力对它们的联合变异性仍然敏感。在13年的项目周期后，经过剪切优化的涡轮机实现了~ 105 k€的正净现值，而在均匀流动假设下为~ 97 k€。这证实了考虑垂直风速梯度可显著加速投资回收并提高长期盈利能力。这些发现强调了本地化叶片优化和特定地点经济建模的重要性。该研究为支持部署具有成本效益的分布式风能系统的政策制定者和投资者提供了实用的见解。

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引用次数: 0

The impact of income inequality on haze pollution and health damage in China: A spatial econometrics perspective 收入不平等对中国雾霾污染和健康损害的影响：一个空间计量经济学视角

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.013

Feng Wang , Dongjie Shi , Jingze He

This paper assesses the impact of income inequality on haze pollution and health damage in China with the Generalized Spatial Two-Stage Least Squares and the Value of a Statistical Life method. Using a panel dataset of 205 Chinese cities from 2010 to 2019, we demonstrate a positive relationship between income inequality and environmental pollution, in which a 0.1 decrease in the Gini coefficient is associated with a 6.65 % decline in the annual average PM_2.5 concentration. Growing income disparity is correlated with increased haze pollution by stifling technological innovation and reducing clean energy consumption. Benefit analysis reveals that the health damage from haze pollution decreases per capita life expectancy by 0.28 years for every 0.1 increase in the Gini coefficient and at least ¥192.98 billion RMB in economic losses (¥100.12 billion–¥285.84 billion RMB with a 95 % confidence interval). Our research reveals that implementing more equitable income distribution policies will alleviate environmental pollution.

本文采用广义空间二阶段最小二乘法和统计寿命值法评估了收入不平等对中国雾霾污染和健康损害的影响。利用2010年至2019年中国205个城市的面板数据集，我们证明了收入不平等与环境污染之间存在正相关关系，其中基尼系数每降低0.1，年均PM2.5浓度下降6.65%。收入差距的扩大抑制了技术创新，减少了清洁能源的消耗，从而加剧了雾霾污染。效益分析表明，基尼系数每增加0.1，雾霾污染造成的健康损害人均预期寿命减少0.28年，经济损失至少为1,99.8亿元人民币（95%置信区间为1001.2亿- 2858.4亿元人民币）。我们的研究表明，实施更公平的收入分配政策将缓解环境污染。

引用次数: 0

Too busy to be a parent: The adverse effects of weekend overtime on fertility preferences 忙得没时间做父母：周末加班对生育偏好的不利影响

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.012

Zekun Li , Wenhao Xu

This study uses data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) for 2020 and 2022, based on 7812 valid samples, to empirically examine the impact of weekend overtime on workers' fertility intentions. The findings indicate that weekend overtime significantly reduces workers' fertility plans for the next two years, a conclusion that holds even after controlling for endogeneity and performing a series of robustness tests. Further analysis shows that this negative effect is more pronounced among women and individuals with one child, and primarily operates through its impact on workers' mental health, marital quality, and emotional fertility motivations. Additionally, the study finds that weekend overtime has a clear suppressive effect on short-term fertility behavior. The conclusions provide new empirical evidence for understanding the relationship between labor market pressures and the decline in fertility rates.

本研究使用中国家庭面板研究（CFPS） 2020年和2022年的数据，基于7812个有效样本，实证检验了周末加班对工人生育意愿的影响。研究结果表明，周末加班显著降低了工人未来两年的生育计划，即使在控制了内生性并进行了一系列稳健性测试后，这一结论仍然成立。进一步的分析表明，这种负面影响在妇女和只有一个孩子的个人中更为明显，主要是通过影响工人的心理健康、婚姻质量和情感生育动机来发挥作用。此外，研究发现周末加班对短期生育行为有明显的抑制作用。这些结论为理解劳动力市场压力与生育率下降之间的关系提供了新的经验证据。

引用次数: 0

Green bonds and firm-level green transformation: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China 绿色债券与企业层面的绿色转型：来自中国准自然实验的证据

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.016

Bing Guo , Jian He , Hualiang Sheng

Against this background in the promotion of the high-quality economic development and the green transformation of China corporations, this paper explores the economic role of green finance with special attention to green bonds. As an illustration, we use panel data of listed companies in China A-share, between 2007 and 2022, to construct fairness indicators of green transformation and a difference-in-differences (DID) design to measure the effect of green bonds issue. The empirical results reveal that issuing green bonds has a considerable positive effect in enhancing corporate green transformation though with lag effect. Besides, green bonds enhance the financial performance of firms and the quality of ESG disclosure hence, supporting their future economic sustainability and competitiveness. These findings give reason to believe that green bonds are not only effective financing instruments that can be used to ensure sustainability but also help to allocate the capital and minimize a financing constraint. The work has significant policy and administrative implication of enhancing the green financial system by advancing business enterprises to use monetary instruments to enhance low-carbon growth, technological innovations, and sustainable economic expansion.

在此背景下，本文以绿色债券为重点，探讨了绿色金融在推动中国经济高质量发展和企业绿色转型中的经济作用。本文以2007年至2022年中国a股上市公司的面板数据为例，构建了绿色转型的公平性指标，并采用差分法（DID）设计来衡量绿色债券发行的效果。实证结果表明，发行绿色债券对促进企业绿色转型具有显著的正向作用，但存在滞后效应。此外，绿色债券提高了企业的财务绩效和ESG披露的质量，从而支持其未来的经济可持续性和竞争力。这些发现使我们有理由相信，绿色债券不仅是有效的融资工具，可用于确保可持续性，而且有助于配置资本和减少融资约束。这项工作对通过推动企业利用货币工具促进低碳增长、技术创新和可持续经济扩张来加强绿色金融体系具有重要的政策和行政意义。

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引用次数: 0

Cross-regional expansion and risk-taking in city commercial banks: Evidence from China 城市商业银行的跨区域扩张与风险承担：来自中国的证据

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.005

Jia Li , Jingyu Qi , Xiaoyang Yang , Fuying Wei

This paper examines how cross-regional expansion by city commercial banks (CCBs) affects bank risk-taking, from the perspectives of internal organizational conditions and the external institutional environment. Using a hand-collected dataset on CCB branch establishment and bank-level financial data from 2002 to 2021, we employ a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) design. We obtain three main findings. (1) Overall, cross-regional expansion-especially within-province cross-city expansion-significantly increases CCBs’ risk exposure, while the effect of cross-province expansion is statistically insignificant. (2) Mechanism evidence suggests that internal organizational changes increase management costs and thus raise risk-taking. External environmental changes also matter. On the one hand, expansion increases supervisory disparities across locations, which heightens risk. On the other hand, expansion strengthens market power of banks, which partially offsets the risk-increasing effect. Local government behavior plays an important moderating role: growth targets, fiscal pressure, and the tenure of municipal Party secretaries significantly amplify the positive effect of expansion on risk-taking, whereas the moderating effect of mayoral tenure is insignificant. (3) Heterogeneity analyses show that the risk effect of expansion is stronger for larger banks. It is also more pronounced-and more readily reflected in bank outcomes-in regions with stricter supervision and higher marketization. Our findings provide new evidence on the expansion-risk nexus in an emerging-market setting and offer policy-relevant implications for improving the regulation of cross-regional banking expansion.

本文从内部组织条件和外部制度环境两个角度考察了城市商业银行跨区域扩张对银行风险承担的影响。利用2002年至2021年期间建行分行设立和银行层面财务数据的手工收集数据集，我们采用了多期差分中的差分（DID）设计。我们得到了三个主要发现。(1)总体而言，跨区域扩张，特别是省内跨城市扩张显著增加了建设银行的风险暴露，而跨省扩张的影响不显著。(2)机制证据表明，组织内部变革增加了管理成本，从而增加了风险承担。外部环境的变化也很重要。一方面，扩张扩大了各地的监管差距，从而加大了风险。另一方面，扩张增强了银行的市场支配力，部分抵消了风险增加效应。地方政府行为具有重要的调节作用：增长目标、财政压力和市委书记任期显著放大了扩张对风险承担的正向作用，而市长任期的调节作用不显著。(3)异质性分析表明，规模较大的银行扩张的风险效应更强。在监管更严格、市场化程度更高的地区，这种情况也更明显，更容易反映在银行业绩上。我们的研究结果为新兴市场背景下的扩张与风险关系提供了新的证据，并为改善对跨地区银行扩张的监管提供了政策相关的启示。

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引用次数: 0

Impact of productivity revolution on Chinese enterprises’ outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) 生产率革命对中国企业对外直接投资的影响

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.002

Peng Ma , Ya Tan , Feng Xu

Against the current wave of digital and intelligent transformation, understanding how productivity revolution drives outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) has become essential for building a new development framework. Drawing on data from Chinese A-share listed firms spanning 2011 to 2022, this research investigates the mechanisms and variations in how productivity advances affect OFDI. The results show that such revolutions substantially raise OFDI levels by building technological advantages, improving risk management, and strengthening supply chain cooperation. These conclusions remain reliable after addressing endogeneity concerns and conducting a series of robustness tests. Further examination suggests that productivity gains stimulate OFDI by strengthening innovation potential and alleviating financial limitations. Additionally, heterogeneity analysis reveals that the effect is stronger among non-state enterprises, highly competitive industries, and firms based in eastern regions. This research expands the theoretical framework for understanding enterprise internationalization in the digital economy era and offers three policy implications for decision-makers—(1) accelerating the contextual application of core technologies of productivity revolution, such as artificial intelligence (AI) and the Internet of Things (IoT); (2) implementing differentiated investment support policies for enterprises based on ownership structure and regional characteristics; and (3) improving the cross-border financial service system to strengthen the synergistic effects between productivity revolution and global resource allocation.

在当前数字化和智能化转型的浪潮中，了解生产力革命如何推动对外直接投资（OFDI），对于构建新的发展框架至关重要。利用2011年至2022年中国a股上市公司的数据，本研究探讨了生产率进步影响对外直接投资的机制和变化。结果表明，这些革命通过建立技术优势、改善风险管理和加强供应链合作，大幅提高了对外直接投资水平。这些结论在解决内生性问题并进行一系列稳健性测试后仍然是可靠的。进一步的研究表明，生产率的提高通过增强创新潜力和缓解资金限制来刺激对外直接投资。此外，异质性分析表明，在非国有企业、高竞争力行业和东部地区企业中，这种效应更强。本研究拓展了理解数字经济时代企业国际化的理论框架，并为决策者提供了三点政策启示：(1)加快人工智能（AI）、物联网（IoT）等生产力革命核心技术的语境应用；(2)根据股权结构和地域特点，对企业实施差别化的投资支持政策；(3)完善跨境金融服务体系，增强生产力革命与全球资源配置的协同效应。

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引用次数: 0

A disaggregate approach to examining the prices, inflation and remittances relationship 考察物价、通货膨胀和汇款关系的分解方法

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.003

Seema Narayan , Paresh Kumar Narayan , Vrinda Jogia , Jale Toga

This study examines how different sources of the inflows of remittance affect prices and inflation across 12 major categories and 44 basket items in Fiji from January 2018 to December 2021. We find that prices and remittances are cointegrated, and that there is short- and long-term inflationary effects that are weak. Both positive and negative short-run effects are more common when data are disaggregated. Our main contribution is that we have added to the literature by studying the inflation-remittance nexus at a very disaggregated level and by evaluating the role of the price regulator (Fijian Competition and Consumer Commission, FCCC) in influencing inflation. Direct effects are shown by FCCC's controls; however the moderating impact is minimal. This study highlights the importance for policymakers to maintain heightened awareness regarding the role of remittances and their utilisation within the economy.

本研究考察了2018年1月至2021年12月期间，不同来源的汇款流入如何影响斐济12个主要类别和44个篮子项目的价格和通货膨胀。我们发现，价格和汇款是协整的，短期和长期的通胀效应都很弱。当数据被分解时，正面和负面的短期效应都更为常见。我们的主要贡献在于，我们在一个非常分散的水平上研究了通货膨胀与汇款的关系，并评估了价格监管机构（斐济竞争和消费者委员会，FCCC）在影响通货膨胀方面的作用，从而增加了文献。FCCC的控制显示了直接影响；然而，调节作用是微乎其微的。这项研究强调了政策制定者对汇款的作用及其在经济中的利用保持高度认识的重要性。

引用次数: 0

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