Economic Analysis and Policy最新文献_第5页

The impact of digital transformation on labour demand quantity and structure: Evidence from China 数字化转型对劳动力需求数量和结构的影响：来自中国的证据

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.10.036

Shuyuan Qin , Ziqi Liu , Jie Wang , Yongqiu Wu

While the impact of digital transformation on firms’ labour demand has attracted considerable attention, no studies have examined how different types of digital transformation impact different workforce labour demand. Using data from Chinese A-share listed manufacturing companies from 2013 to 2022, this study employs a two-way fixed effects model, the instrumental variable method and multi-temporal difference-in-differences analysis. The findings reveal that digital convergence technologies significantly increase manufacturing firms’ labour demand, whereas e-commerce technologies have no significant effect on employment. Furthermore, digitalisation has a negative effect on the demand for operational employees and a positive effect on the demand for skilled and service employees. The mechanism test reveals that digital transformation primarily substitutes labour through productivity effects and generates labour demand via financing constraints and business scope effects, ultimately increasing manufacturing firms’ labour demand. These results further enhance the understanding of how digital technology development impacts labour demand.

尽管数字化转型对企业劳动力需求的影响已引起广泛关注，但还没有研究探讨不同类型的数字化转型如何影响不同劳动力的需求。本研究利用 2013 年至 2022 年中国 A 股制造业上市公司的数据，采用双向固定效应模型、工具变量法和多时差分析。研究结果表明，数字化融合技术显著增加了制造业企业的劳动力需求，而电子商务技术对就业没有显著影响。此外，数字化对操作型员工的需求有负面影响，而对技能型和服务型员工的需求有正面影响。机制检验显示，数字化转型主要通过生产率效应替代劳动力，并通过融资约束和业务范围效应产生劳动力需求，最终增加制造业企业的劳动力需求。这些结果进一步加深了人们对数字技术发展如何影响劳动力需求的理解。

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引用次数: 0

Inflationary dynamics of labour market activity: Evidence from the Czech Republic 劳动力市场活动的通胀动态：捷克共和国的证据

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.10.045

Guilhem Sirot, Umut Unal, Robin Maialeh

This paper provides an in-depth investigation into the intricacy of inflation dynamics in the Czech Republic, with particular emphasis on the influence exerted by labor market activity. The research employed principal component analysis and the local projections methodology proposed by Jorda (2005) in the context of the Phillips curve framework, followed by the extension of the analysis via the introduction of a nuanced state dependence dimension that recognizes that the impact of labor market activity on inflation may be contingent upon the broader economic situation. Our findings revealed the statistically significant impact of labor market activity on inflation. Specifically, a one standard deviation increase in the labor market activity component leads to an accumulated increase in inflation of approximately 3 percentage points over a three-year horizon. Our non-linear model uncovered the pivotal interaction between state dependence and the impact on inflation. The findings revealed that during expansionary periods, labor market pressures can be effectively managed for a limited period, albeit with a slight escalation in prices. However, over an extended period, the labor market is susceptible to encountering constraints that lead to markedly higher inflation rates - almost twice as high as those observed during recessionary periods. We subjected our benchmark results to extensive robustness verification.

本文深入探讨了捷克共和国通货膨胀动态的复杂性，特别强调了劳动力市场活动的影响。研究采用了 Jorda（2005 年）在菲利普斯曲线框架下提出的主成分分析和本地预测方法，并通过引入细微的状态依赖维度对分析进行了扩展，承认劳动力市场活动对通货膨胀的影响可能取决于更广泛的经济形势。我们的研究结果表明，劳动力市场活动对通货膨胀有显著的统计影响。具体而言，劳动力市场活动每增加一个标准差，通胀率就会在三年内累计上升约 3 个百分点。我们的非线性模型揭示了国家依赖性与通货膨胀影响之间的关键互动关系。研究结果表明，在经济扩张时期，劳动力市场的压力可以在一定时期内得到有效控制，尽管价格会略有上涨。然而，在一个较长的时期内，劳动力市场很容易受到限制，导致通货膨胀率明显上升，几乎是衰退时期的两倍。我们对基准结果进行了广泛的稳健性验证。

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引用次数: 0

The green innovation spillover effect of enterprise digital transformation: Based on supply chain perspective 企业数字化转型的绿色创新溢出效应：基于供应链视角

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.10.041

Yaobin Liu , Sheng Hu , Chenchen Wang

In the process of constructing green supply chains, how to incentivize suppliers to participate in green innovation is the main challenge. This paper investigates whether digital transformation of customers (CDT) can enhance green innovation of suppliers (SGIT) based on the theoretical framework of resource dependence theory and digital empowerment theory. Paired data of Chinese A-share listed companies and their major customers from 2010 to 2020 are used in this study. The conclusions show that: (1) CDT can significantly enhance SGIT. For economic significance, CDT contributes to an 18 % increase in green patent applications of suppliers. The conclusion remains robust after a series of tests. (2) The main influence mechanisms include: a) increasing the demand for green innovation (DE), and b) facilitating the spillover of digital technologies (SP). (3) Heterogeneity analysis shows that: CDT can more significantly drive SGIT in samples with higher customer concentration. (4) The effect of CDT on SGIT is more significant for suppliers with lower uncertainty and less environmental pollution. (5) The impact of CDT on SGIT is more significant in samples where customers and suppliers are geographically closer. The findings enhance the understanding of digital transformation and offer some insights for promoting green innovation.

在构建绿色供应链的过程中，如何激励供应商参与绿色创新是主要挑战。本文基于资源依赖理论和数字化赋权理论的理论框架，探讨了客户数字化转型（CDT）能否提升供应商绿色创新（SGIT）。研究使用了 2010 年至 2020 年中国 A 股上市公司及其主要客户的配对数据。研究结论表明(1) CDT 能显著提升 SGIT。就经济意义而言，CDT 使供应商的绿色专利申请增加了 18%。这一结论在经过一系列测试后仍然是可靠的。(2) 主要影响机制包括：a) 增加对绿色创新的需求（DE）；b) 促进数字技术的溢出（SP）。(3) 异质性分析表明：在客户集中度较高的样本中，CDT 对 SGIT 的推动作用更为明显。(4) CDT 对 SGIT 的影响对于不确定性较低、环境污染较少的供应商更为显著。(5) CDT 对 SGIT 的影响在客户和供应商地理位置较近的样本中更为显著。这些发现加深了人们对数字化转型的理解，并为促进绿色创新提供了一些启示。

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引用次数: 0

Firms’ location decisions, supply chain disruptions and government subsidies: A dynamic game 企业选址决策、供应链中断和政府补贴：动态博弈

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.10.023

Andrea Bacchiocchi , Alessandro Bellocchi , Andrea Coveri

This paper develops a dynamic game to study the interaction between firms’ production location decisions and a government subsidy policy. On the one hand, firms consider the cost of shielding their production capacity from (potential) supply chain disruptions. On the other hand, the government is interested in curbing production offshoring to increase domestic tax revenues. The location decision of each firm is affected by the government subsidy policy and the location choices of other firms, while the share of firms producing domestically influences the government’s decision on whether and to what extent to provide subsidies to firms. We show that government subsidy policy must target a sufficiently large number of firms to encourage production reshoring and achieve the Pareto-efficient equilibrium. However, a subsidy policy providing a high number of low subsidies is likely to be ineffective in increasing domestic production, highlighting the importance of careful fine-tuning of the policy. Finally, in some scenarios, industrial policy becomes crucial to increase the resilience of domestic supply chains and foster reshoring.

本文通过动态博弈来研究企业的生产选址决策与政府补贴政策之间的相互作用。一方面，企业会考虑使其生产能力免受（潜在的）供应链中断影响的成本。另一方面，政府希望遏制生产离岸化以增加国内税收。每个企业的选址决策都会受到政府补贴政策和其他企业选址的影响，而在国内生产的企业比例则会影响政府是否向企业提供补贴以及提供多少补贴的决策。我们的研究表明，政府的补贴政策必须针对足够多的企业，才能鼓励生产转移并实现帕累托效率均衡。然而，提供大量低补贴的补贴政策很可能无法有效提高国内生产，这凸显了对政策进行细致微调的重要性。最后，在某些情况下，产业政策对于提高国内供应链的弹性和促进再生产至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

Big data development and labor income share: Evidence from China's national big data comprehensive pilot zones 大数据发展与劳动收入份额：来自中国国家大数据综合试验区的证据

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.10.031

Yuanbin Xu , Yuan Wei , Xin Zeng , Haiqing Yu , Hongjie Chen

In the midst of the rapid development of the digital economy, data has emerged as a new core production factor. It not only creates value for producers but also benefits the majority of ordinary workers, playing a crucial role in optimizing income distribution and promoting common prosperity. Utilizing data from Chinese A-share listed companies from 2012 to 2021, this study evaluates the impact of big data development on the labor income share of enterprises, employing the establishment of China's national big data comprehensive pilot zones as a quasi-natural experiment. Additionally, it examines the heterogeneity of this impact across regional, industry, and firm levels. The findings reveal that big data development significantly increases the labor income share of firms, mainly through mitigating labor mismatch, improving innovation capability, and upgrading human capital. Heterogeneity analysis shows that big data development exerts a stronger effect on eastern and labor-rich regions, high-tech and non-labor-intensive industries, big-data industries and low-competition industries, as well as state-owned and mature enterprises. This study provides policy insights on fully harnessing the benefits of big data pilot policy to increase labor income share, with important implications for developing countries.

在数字经济迅猛发展的今天，数据已成为新的核心生产要素。它不仅为生产者创造价值，也惠及广大普通劳动者，在优化收入分配、促进共同富裕方面发挥着重要作用。本研究利用 2012 年至 2021 年中国 A 股上市公司的数据，以中国国家大数据综合试验区的设立为准自然实验，评估了大数据发展对企业劳动收入占比的影响。此外，研究还考察了这种影响在地区、行业和企业层面的异质性。研究结果表明，大数据发展主要通过缓解劳动力错配、提高创新能力和提升人力资本，显著提高了企业的劳动收入占比。异质性分析表明，大数据发展对东部地区和劳动力富裕地区、高科技产业和非劳动密集型产业、大数据产业和低竞争产业以及国有企业和成熟企业的影响更大。本研究为充分利用大数据试点政策的优势提高劳动收入占比提供了政策启示，对发展中国家具有重要的借鉴意义。

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引用次数: 0

Automated workforce, financial precarities and family consumption: The importance of demand-side policies under the background of automation applications 自动化劳动力、金融不稳定性和家庭消费：自动化应用背景下需求方政策的重要性

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.10.029

Chao Li , Wenyu Lao , Xiang Li , Yuhan Zhang

The continuous innovation of automation technology is expanding its application in the workplace, with wide-ranging implications for the economy and society. However, it is not yet clear how workplace automation changes people’s consumption behavior. This paper conducts an empirical analysis in this regard based on the Chinese General Social Survey. The main results are shown as follows: (1) One standard deviation increase in automation contributes to an average reduction of 7.073 % in family consumption. This finding is validated by conducting several robustness and endogeneity checks using various measures of automation and consumption, instrumental variable approach, placebo analysis, etc. (2) The mechanism is that automation decreases family income and work-related social capital, resulting in a decline in families’ socioeconomic status and increased financial precarities. In addition, financial uncertainties brought about by automation decrease people’s subjective well-being, expectations for future life and risk appetite, thus prompting them to lower consumption as a precautionary measure to prepare for potential risks caused by the technological change. (3) Automation has greater negative effects on hedonic and developmental consumption, which are about three times the impact on non-hedonic and basic living expenses respectively, thus leading to a downgrade in families’ consumption structure. In addition, its effect is more pronounced for families with lower economic status, having no houses and living in urban areas. This study also highlights the importance of demand-side policies in the application of automation technology by finding that better labor protection is needed to mitigate automation’s adverse consequences for family consumption. In the context of automation’s increasingly profound impact on the society, this research has important policy implications.

自动化技术的不断创新扩大了其在工作场所的应用，对经济和社会产生了广泛的影响。然而，职场自动化如何改变人们的消费行为，目前尚不清楚。本文基于中国社会综合调查，对此进行了实证分析。主要结果如下(1) 自动化程度每提高一个标准差，家庭消费就会平均减少 7.073%。(2) 其机理是自动化降低了家庭收入和与工作相关的社会资本，导致家庭社会经济地位下降，财务更加不稳定。此外，自动化带来的财务不确定性降低了人们的主观幸福感、对未来生活的预期和风险偏好，从而促使他们降低消费作为预防措施，以应对技术变革带来的潜在风险。(3) 自动化对享乐性消费和发展性消费的负面影响更大，分别是对非享乐性消费和基本生活支出影响的三倍左右，从而导致家庭消费结构降级。此外，自动化对经济地位较低、无房和居住在城市地区的家庭的影响更为明显。本研究还强调了需求方政策在自动化技术应用中的重要性，发现需要更好的劳动保护来减轻自动化对家庭消费的不利影响。在自动化对社会的影响日益深远的背景下，本研究具有重要的政策意义。

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引用次数: 0

Empowering women brings change: The role of female cadres in enhancing elderly care public goods in Chinese villages 妇女赋权带来变革：中国农村女干部在提升养老公共产品中的作用

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.10.011

Houjian Li, Xingyi Zuo, Andi Cao

Against the backdrop of globalization, the role of women in political and social governance has garnered increasing attention. This study utilizes large-scale random sample data from the agricultural census and employs various treatment effect models to explore the impact of female cadres on the provision of elderly care public goods in villages and the underlying mechanisms. The findings reveal that female cadres significantly enhance the provision of elderly care public goods within villages. This result remains robust even after conducting various robustness tests and addressing endogeneity issues. Further investigation reveals significant heterogeneity in the impact of female cadres on elderly care public goods provision. In the eastern regions, female cadres have a greater absolute effect, while in the western regions, their marginal impact is more pronounced. Additionally, female cadres play a more significant role in villages with weaker collective action strength. We also explore the heterogeneous treatment effects related to the propensity scores of female cadres within villages. The impact, initially insignificant in villages with lower scores, becomes significant, positive, and stable as scores rise. The positive impact also varies significantly with the proportion of female cadres in the village, indicating an optimal ratio for maximizing their positive effect. The study also unveils that female cadres positively influence elderly care public goods provision by enhancing collective economy and playing a role in poverty reduction. These findings offer rich policy implications for maximizing the role of female cadres in the provision of elderly care public goods.

在全球化背景下，妇女在政治和社会治理中的作用日益受到关注。本研究利用农业普查的大规模随机抽样数据，采用多种处理效应模型，探讨了女干部对村内养老公共产品供给的影响及其内在机制。研究结果表明，女干部显著提高了村内养老公共产品的供给。即使进行了各种稳健性检验并解决了内生性问题，这一结果仍然是稳健的。进一步研究发现，女干部对养老公共产品供给的影响存在显著的异质性。在东部地区，女干部的绝对影响更大，而在西部地区，其边际影响更为明显。此外，在集体行动力量较弱的村庄，女干部的作用更为显著。我们还探讨了与村内女干部倾向得分相关的异质性治疗效果。在得分较低的村庄，这种影响最初并不显著，但随着得分的上升，这种影响变得显著、积极且稳定。积极影响也随村中女干部比例的变化而显著不同，这表明要使女干部的积极影响最大化，需要一个最佳比例。研究还揭示了女干部通过增强集体经济和在减贫中发挥作用，对老年人护理公共产品的提供产生积极影响。这些发现为最大限度地发挥女干部在养老公共产品供给中的作用提供了丰富的政策启示。

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引用次数: 0

Welfare impacts of coal-fired power plants: Do economic benefits compensate health costs? 燃煤发电厂的福利影响：经济效益能否补偿健康成本？

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.10.030

Tao Lin , Minhao Qi , Sijie Wei , Zhao Chen

Coal-fired power plants are the largest source of electricity generation worldwide, particularly in developing countries. While much research highlights their negative health externalities, few studies assess the comprehensive welfare effects, including potential economic benefits. Using data on the geographic distribution of coal-fired power plants and individual survey data from China (1989–2015), we assess whether the economic benefits of these plants outweigh their health costs. Our empirical analysis compares health and employment outcomes of individuals living near a plant to those slightly farther away, before and after the plant's opening. We find that coal-fired power plants significantly harm local residents' health while simultaneously boosting employment opportunities. Mechanism analysis shows that pollution drives health deterioration, while higher electricity production leads to increased labor demand. These impacts are unevenly distributed across education, age, and regional groups, with pronounced inequalities. A welfare analysis indicates that the overall effect of coal-fired power plants is negative, as the health costs surpass the economic benefits.

燃煤发电厂是全球最大的发电来源，尤其是在发展中国家。尽管许多研究强调了燃煤发电厂对健康造成的负面外部效应，但很少有研究评估其综合福利效应，包括潜在的经济效益。利用中国燃煤电厂地理分布数据和个人调查数据（1989-2015 年），我们评估了这些电厂的经济效益是否超过其健康成本。我们的实证分析比较了生活在电厂附近和稍远地区的个人在电厂启用前后的健康和就业结果。我们发现，燃煤电厂在显著损害当地居民健康的同时，也增加了就业机会。机制分析表明，污染导致健康恶化，而电力生产的增加则导致劳动力需求的增加。这些影响在不同教育、年龄和地区群体中分布不均，存在明显的不平等。福利分析表明，燃煤发电厂的总体影响是负面的，因为健康成本超过了经济效益。

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引用次数: 0

Reallocate to the right place: The heterogeneous effect of internet use on factor allocation of rural households in China 重新分配到正确的地方互联网使用对中国农村家庭要素配置的异质性影响

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.10.026

Tianyu Huang , Yiyue Quan , Nan Li

How to improve factor (mis)allocation is an important topic for both economists and policy-makers. In the digital economy era, existing studies have investigated the impact of information and communication technologies on factor allocation of rural households, but little is known about the heterogenous effect on farmers with differentiated productivity. This study uses panel data from the Chinese Family Panel Studies from 2010 to 2020, to examine the impact of Internet use on factor allocation of rural households from the view of heterogeneity in their productivities. The results suggest that Internet use facilitates a flow of land from low- to high-productivity farmers, and farm labor migration to off-farm activities. Such effect is achieved though easing information constraints and all farmers gain higher income after the reallocation. Our findings suggest that promoting Internet penetration and its functions can help reduce misallocation and improve welfare in rural areas.

如何改善要素（错误）配置是经济学家和政策制定者的一个重要课题。在数字经济时代，已有研究探讨了信息通信技术对农村家庭要素配置的影响，但对于其对具有生产率差异的农户的异质性影响却知之甚少。本研究利用 2010-2020 年中国家庭面板研究的面板数据，从农户生产率异质性的角度考察互联网使用对农户要素配置的影响。研究结果表明，互联网的使用促进了土地从低生产率农户向高生产率农户的流动，以及农业劳动力向非农业活动的迁移。这种效果是通过缓解信息约束实现的，所有农民在重新分配后都获得了更高的收入。我们的研究结果表明，促进互联网的普及及其功能有助于减少分配不当，提高农村地区的福利。

引用次数: 0

Access to credit and scale efficiency: Evidence from family farms in East China 获得信贷与规模效率：来自华东地区家庭农场的证据

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.10.021

Rong Cai (蔡荣) , Jie Ma (马婕) , Shujuan Wang (王舒娟) , Shukai Cai (蔡书凯)

Productivity improvement is an important driving force for developing countries to accelerate the development of agricultural sectors and promote the transformation of economic structures. However, few studies have focused on the impact of credit access on family farms’ scale efficiency, a contributor to productivity changes. We address this gap by using data collected from a survey of 565 family farms in East China. The stochastic frontier input distance function (SFIDF) is utilized to measure the scale efficiency, and the endogenous switching regression model (ESRM) is employed to estimate average treatment effect (ATT) and address the selection bias. The empirical results show that the average scale efficiency is 0.768, with credit users and non-users averaging 0.802 and 0.737, respectively. Most family farms operate below their optimal production scale, and only about 14.5 % of family farms exceed this optimal scale. Access to credit has significantly improved the scale efficiency of family farms and has not contributed to the excessive pursuit of scale expansion for financial subsidies. These findings are validated by robustness checks. The conclusions of our study have important implications for developing countries seeking to increase financial support for agricultural development.

提高生产率是发展中国家加快农业部门发展、促进经济结构转型的重要推动力。然而，很少有研究关注信贷获取对家庭农场规模效率的影响，而规模效率是生产率变化的促进因素。我们利用对华东地区 565 个家庭农场的调查数据，填补了这一空白。我们利用随机前沿投入距离函数（SFIDF）来衡量规模效率，并采用内生转换回归模型（ESRM）来估计平均处理效应（ATT），以解决选择偏差问题。实证结果显示，平均规模效率为 0.768，信贷用户和非用户的平均规模效率分别为 0.802 和 0.737。大多数家庭农场的经营规模低于其最佳生产规模，只有约 14.5%的家庭农场超过了这一最佳规模。获得信贷极大地提高了家庭农场的规模效率，并没有导致过度追求规模扩张以获取财政补贴。这些结论通过稳健性检验得到了验证。我们的研究结论对发展中国家寻求增加对农业发展的财政支持具有重要意义。

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引用次数: 0