Economic Analysis and Policy最新文献_第6页

How does digital finance alleviate fiscal stress? Evidence from China 数字金融如何缓解财政压力？来自中国的证据

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.10.024

Haiyan Shan , Mengjie Gu

The impact of digital finance on fiscal stress is an important issue in achieving high-quality financial development. Based on the theoretical analysis of digital finance and fiscal stress, this paper utilizes data from 285 cities in China spanning from 2011 to 2020, empirically tests the impact of digital finance on fiscal stress by employing fixed effect model and spatial Durbin model, and identifies the influence mechanism. The results demonstrate that: (1) The development of digital finance can significantly alleviate fiscal stress, which remains valid after conducting a series of robustness tests. In addition, the impact of digital finance on fiscal stress predominantly originates from the coverage breadth of digital finance. (2) Mechanism analysis reveals that promoting the increase of fiscal revenue and improving the efficiency of fiscal expenditure are crucial mechanisms for digital finance to alleviate fiscal stress. (3) Heterogeneity test indicates that digital finance has a more significant alleviating effect on fiscal stress in central regions and cities with higher levels of economic development. (4) The spatial effect test suggests that digital finance exhibits a significant spatial spillover effect on fiscal stress, and an enhancement in digital finance level in a region will reduce fiscal stress in its neighboring regions. The above findings offer insightful guidance for government to better utilize digital financial tools to manage debt, optimize the structure of fiscal revenue and expenditure, and promote sustainable financial development.

数字金融对财政压力的影响是实现金融高质量发展的重要问题。本文在对数字金融与财政压力进行理论分析的基础上，利用我国285个城市2011-2020年的数据，通过固定效应模型和空间杜宾模型，实证检验了数字金融对财政压力的影响，并明确了其影响机制。结果表明(1）数字金融的发展能够显著缓解财政压力，这一点在进行了一系列稳健性检验后仍然有效。此外，数字金融对财政压力的影响主要来源于数字金融的覆盖广度。(2）机制分析表明，促进财政收入增长和提高财政支出效率是数字财政缓解财政压力的重要机制。(3）异质性检验表明，在经济发展水平较高的中部地区和城市，数字财政对财政压力的缓解作用更为显著。(4）空间效应检验表明，数字金融对财政压力具有显著的空间溢出效应，一个地区数字金融水平的提高会减轻其周边地区的财政压力。上述结论为政府更好地利用数字金融工具管理债务、优化财政收支结构、促进财政可持续发展提供了有益的指导。

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引用次数: 0

Exploring the nexus between inflation targeting and exchange market pressure: Evidence from the global financial crisis 探讨通货膨胀目标制与外汇市场压力之间的关系：全球金融危机的证据

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.10.027

Chandan Sethi , Bibhuti Ranjan Mishra , Dinabandhu Sethi

This study investigates the effects of the inflation targeting (IT) monetary framework on the exchange market pressure index (EMPI) across 24 Asian economies from 1998 to 2018, with a particular focus on the period covering the global financial crisis (2008–2018). Employing dynamic panel data modeling and Propensity Score Matching, our analysis reveals a positive impact of implementing the IT on the EMPI. The findings suggest that adopting an IT regime effectively reduces exchange market pressure, demonstrating notable resilience following the global financial crisis of 2008. This highlights that an IT policy enhances the credibility of monetary policy, thereby decreasing the need for central bank interventions in the foreign exchange market within this framework.

本研究调查了 1998 年至 2018 年间 24 个亚洲经济体的通胀目标货币框架对外汇市场压力指数（EMPI）的影响，尤其关注全球金融危机期间（2008-2018 年）的情况。利用动态面板数据模型和倾向得分匹配，我们的分析揭示了实施 IT 对 EMPI 的积极影响。研究结果表明，采用 IT 体制可有效减轻外汇市场压力，在 2008 年全球金融危机后表现出显著的恢复能力。这突出表明，IT 政策提高了货币政策的可信度，从而降低了中央银行在此框架内干预外汇市场的必要性。

引用次数: 0

Does centralization of tax administration regulate tax competition? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China 税收管理集中化是否会调节税收竞争？来自中国准自然实验的证据

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.10.015

Haotian Zhang , Shengfeng Lu , Sixia Chen

This study investigates how the centralization of tax administration affects tax competition among local governments in China, using the merger of the State Tax Bureau and Local Tax Bureau in 2018 as a quasi-natural experiment. Our findings demonstrate that the centralization of tax administration effectively curtails the degree of tax competition among local governments, resulting in an increase in the tax burden for enterprises previously managed by the local tax bureaus. Mechanism tests indicate that the reform significantly increases the tax burden on enterprises in regions with high levels of tax competition, and overall reduces the divergence of tax burden among enterprises, restraining cross-regional investments driven by tax avoidance. Additionally, we find that after the means of tax competition among local governments are curtailed, competition continues through fiscal expenditure. Our study provides evidence from China on curbing inter-governmental tax competition from the perspective of administrative institutional reform.

本研究以 2018 年国家税务局和地方税务局合并为准自然实验，探讨税收征管集中化如何影响中国地方政府间的税收竞争。我们的研究结果表明，税收征管集中化有效抑制了地方政府间的税收竞争程度，导致原由地方税务局管理的企业税负增加。机制检验表明，改革显著增加了税收竞争激烈地区企业的税收负担，并从整体上减少了企业间的税收负担分化，抑制了由避税驱动的跨地区投资。此外，我们还发现，地方政府间的税收竞争手段被削弱后，竞争仍通过财政支出继续进行。我们的研究提供了中国从行政体制改革角度遏制政府间税收竞争的证据。

引用次数: 0

Job Destruction or Job Creation?: Evidence from Carbon Emission Trading Policies 工作岗位破坏还是创造？碳排放交易政策的证据

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.10.017

Qiaoru Wang , Hongyu Huang , Tingyu Liu

Based on the panel data of 285 cities in China from 2007 to 2019, this paper constructs a theoretical framework to analyze the employment effect of carbon emission trading policy, and quantitatively evaluates the effectiveness, decomposition effect and influence mechanism of carbon emission trading policy on employment based on PSM-DID method. The study shows that the carbon emissions trading policy has a positive impact on the level of urban employment while producing significant environmental governance effects, and that its positive impact on employment in the pilot cities stems from the negative effect of reducing employment destruction rather than from the positive effect of increasing the job-creating effect. Carbon emissions trading policy promotes employment in the pilot cities through structural transformation effects, specifically through the three paths of green technology innovation, energy structure optimization and industrial structure upgrading. At the same time, the impact of the policy on employment varies significantly across cities of different locations, sizes and resource endowments. The study proposes that the construction of the national carbon market should be accelerated, a market-oriented green technology innovation system should be constructed, the optimization of the energy structure and the upgrading of the industrial structure should be promoted, and training in employment skills should be strengthened. The theoretical analysis of this study provides a theoretical basis for the micro-mechanism of carbon emissions trading policy, and the empirical results provide practical reference for the change of employment structure and the high-quality development of employment.

本文基于2007-2019年中国285个城市的面板数据，构建了碳排放权交易政策就业效应分析的理论框架，并基于PSM-DID方法定量评价了碳排放权交易政策对就业的有效性、分解效应和影响机制。研究表明，碳排放权交易政策在对城市就业水平产生积极影响的同时，也产生了显著的环境治理效应，其对试点城市就业的积极影响源于减少就业破坏的负效应，而非增加就业创造效应的正效应。碳排放权交易政策通过结构转型效应促进了试点城市的就业，具体来说是通过绿色技术创新、能源结构优化和产业结构升级三条路径促进了试点城市的就业。同时，在不同区位、规模和资源禀赋的城市中，政策对就业的影响存在显著差异。研究提出，应加快全国碳市场建设，构建市场导向的绿色技术创新体系，促进能源结构优化和产业结构升级，加强就业技能培训。本研究的理论分析为碳排放权交易政策的微观机制提供了理论依据，实证结果为就业结构变化和就业高质量发展提供了实践参考。

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引用次数: 0

Green finance and land ecological security: A potential mechanism for sustainable development 绿色金融与土地生态安全：促进可持续发展的潜在机制

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.10.003

Chien-Chiang Lee , Zihao Yuan , Yongchao Kang

With growing global concern for environmental issues, green finance (GF) has emerged as a key tool for promoting sustainable development. However, research on its impact on land ecological security (LES) is limited. This study explores the spatial and non-linear effects of GF on LES, focusing on the roles of agricultural e-commerce (AEC) and agricultural industry agglomeration (AIA). Our findings reveal significant first, spatial auto-correlation in LES and an inverted U-shaped pattern in the spatial impact of GF. Second, AEC enhances this inverted U-shaped relationship, shifting the knee point leftward and resulting in a higher marginal effect of GF on LES. Conversely, AIA weakens the relationship, shifting the knee point rightward and potentially flipping the pattern. Additionally, heterogeneity researches results indicate that this spatial effect exists only in primary grain distribution areas, and not in primary grain producing areas or grain production and distribution balanced areas. Robustness tests, including instrumental variables and alternative core explanatory variables, confirm the credibility of these results. This research offers targeted policy recommendations for the GF-LES relationship.

随着全球对环境问题的日益关注，绿色金融（GF）已成为促进可持续发展的重要工具。然而，有关其对土地生态安全（LES）影响的研究却十分有限。本研究探讨了绿色金融对土地生态安全的空间和非线性影响，重点关注农业电子商务（AEC）和农业产业集聚（AIA）的作用。我们的研究结果表明，首先，LES 具有显著的空间自相关性，GF 的空间影响呈倒 U 型模式。其次，AEC 增强了这种倒 U 型关系，使膝点左移，从而提高了 GF 对 LES 的边际效应。反之，AIA 会削弱这种关系，使膝点右移，并可能翻转这种模式。此外，异质性研究结果表明，这种空间效应只存在于主要谷物分布区，而不存在于主要谷物产区或谷物产销平衡区。包括工具变量和替代核心解释变量在内的稳健性检验证实了这些结果的可信性。本研究针对全球粮食与环境经济关系提出了有针对性的政策建议。

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引用次数: 0

Influence of financial inclusion and industrial robots on the efficiency of China's OFDI: A heterogeneous spatial stochastic frontier analysis 普惠金融和产业机器人对中国对外直接投资效率的影响：异质性空间随机前沿分析

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.10.020

Qiang Cao, Aiyan Xu, Jiawen Wang, Wenmei Yu

Enhancing the efficacy of China's outward foreign direct investment (COFDI) constitutes a significant avenue for realizing the sustainable development of China's economy. This study analyzes panel data from 63 countries from 2010 to 2021 to create a heterogeneous spatial stochastic frontier model to examine how financial inclusion and industrial robotics in host nations affect COFDI efficiency. The findings are as follows. To begin with, COFDI manifests positive spatial spillover effects across countries. Moreover, from a spatial perspective, financial inclusion diminishes COFDI efficiency, whereas the interaction between financial inclusion and industrial robots increases its efficiency. Industrial robots, thus, counteract the diminishing impact of financial inclusion on COFDI efficiency. Additionally, concerning the heterogeneity of location choice and investment motivation in COFDI, the interaction between financial inclusion and industrial robots in developed economies augments COFDI efficiency as opposed to emerging market economies. Conversely, technology-seeking investment mitigates the adverse effects of financial inclusion on the efficacy of COFDI when juxtaposed with resource-seeking investment. This study provides theoretical insights and practical recommendations for improving the efficiency and guiding the destination selection of COFDI.

提高中国对外直接投资（COFDI）的效率是实现中国经济可持续发展的重要途径。本研究通过分析 2010 年至 2021 年 63 个国家的面板数据，建立异质性空间随机前沿模型，研究东道国的普惠金融和工业机器人技术如何影响 COFDI 效率。研究结果如下。首先，外国直接投资在各国之间表现出积极的空间溢出效应。此外，从空间角度看，普惠金融降低了 COFDI 的效率，而普惠金融与工业机器人的相互作用则提高了 COFDI 的效率。因此，工业机器人抵消了普惠金融对外国直接投资效率的递减影响。此外，关于外国直接投资中区位选择和投资动机的异质性，发达经济体中普惠金融与工业机器人之间的相互作用提高了外国直接投资的效率，而新兴市场经济体则相反。相反，当寻求技术的投资与寻求资源的投资并列时，会减轻金融包容性对 COFDI 效率的不利影响。本研究为提高 COFDI 效率和指导目的地选择提供了理论见解和实践建议。

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引用次数: 0

Does local government debt promote firm green innovation? Evidence from the Chinese local government debt governance reform 地方政府债务能否促进企业绿色创新？来自中国地方政府债务治理改革的证据

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.10.010

Anjie Li , Junjie Qiu

Green innovation is a crucial strategy for fostering a green economy and achieving sustainable development. This paper focuses on the role of government debt in the sustainability of firm green innovation, particularly in the context of Chinese local government debt governance reform in 2014 (CLGDGR2014). By analyzing annual data of Chinese publicly listed firms from 2011 to 2018, the study explores the impact of CLGDGR2014 on firm green innovation and the underlying driving mechanisms. The findings suggest that CLGDGR2014 improves the firm green innovation, by alleviating firms' financing constraints and underscoring the productive function of local government debt in advancing new infrastructure development. The further analysis explores the impact of various types of debt on green innovation after CLGDGR2014 and indicates that explicit local government debt has a promoting effect while implicit local government debt is not obvious. In conclusion, this research offers new insights into leveraging and managing local government debt to stimulate green innovation.

绿色创新是促进绿色经济和实现可持续发展的重要战略。本文重点研究政府债务在企业绿色创新可持续性中的作用，尤其是在2014年中国地方政府债务治理改革（CLGDGR2014）的背景下。本研究通过分析 2011 年至 2018 年中国上市公司的年度数据，探讨了 CLGDGR2014 对企业绿色创新的影响及其内在驱动机制。研究结果表明，CLGDGR2014缓解了企业的融资约束，凸显了地方政府债务在推进新型基础设施建设中的生产性功能，从而提高了企业的绿色创新能力。进一步分析探讨了 CLGDGR2014 后各类债务对绿色创新的影响，结果表明显性地方政府债务具有促进作用，而隐性地方政府债务的促进作用并不明显。总之，本研究为利用和管理地方政府债务以刺激绿色创新提供了新的见解。

引用次数: 0

Financial geographic structure and innovation quality: Evidence from Chinese firms amid economic policy uncertainty 金融地理结构与创新质量：来自经济政策不确定性下中国企业的证据

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.10.028

Hua Yue, Haiyan Wang, Peizhen Jin

In countries where indirect financing dominates, the geographic distribution of financial resources to firms is crucial in enhancing credit availability and improving innovation quality. This study examines the impact and heterogeneity of financial geographic structure on firm innovation quality. Using the number of bank branches surrounding Chinese listed companies as a proxy for financial geographic structure, we employ a multidimensional fixed effects model and Heckman's two-stage method, finding that a higher density of bank branches significantly enhances firms’ access to credit. This fosters innovation by increasing invention patent applications in high-tech non-state-owned enterprises and green patent applications in non-high-tech state-owned enterprises. However, as economic policy uncertainty increases, the positive effect of financial geographic structure on firm innovation diminishes. Hence, countries facing substantial policy uncertainty and relying on indirect financing must strengthen multilevel financial markets and encourage commercial banks to provide greater support for firms pursuing higher levels of innovation.

在间接融资占主导地位的国家，企业金融资源的地理分布对于提高信贷可用性和创新质量至关重要。本研究探讨了金融地域结构对企业创新质量的影响和异质性。我们以中国上市公司周边的银行网点数量作为金融地域结构的替代变量，采用多维固定效应模型和赫克曼两阶段法，发现银行网点密度越高，企业获得信贷的机会就越大。这通过增加高科技非国有企业的发明专利申请和非高科技国有企业的绿色专利申请来促进创新。然而，随着经济政策不确定性的增加，金融地理结构对企业创新的积极影响会减弱。因此，面临重大政策不确定性并依赖间接融资的国家必须加强多层次金融市场，鼓励商业银行为追求更高水平创新的企业提供更多支持。

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引用次数: 0

Aggregated economic damages and the role of dynamic carbon tax under climate change: A dynamic general equilibrium model 气候变化下的综合经济损失和动态碳税的作用：动态一般均衡模型

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.10.025

Huai Deng , Xianhua Wu , Hui Xu , Dawei Zhang

A rational assessment of the aggregated economic damages and a more effective carbon tax are crucial for climate governance. However, existing studies still under-recognize the utility damages and dynamic carbon taxes. In this study, we construct a multi-regional dynamic general equilibrium model considering both production and utility damages. Then, this paper re-estimates the regional aggregated economic damages reasonably (including utility damages) and compares in detail the role of static carbon tax, dynamic carbon tax and regionally optimal dynamic carbon tax (RCT). We found that: (1) As climate change intensifies, the world will suffer >8 % of production damage and 1 % of utility damage by the end of the 21st century. Of these, the US and China face more pronounced economic damage. (2) If the carbon tax is implemented only in some regions, other regions will have a “free rider” benefit. An environmentally friendly dynamic carbon tax (fast and then slow) would be more effective, giving economies room to adapt to the carbon tax. The risk of exacerbating global inequality needs to be guarded against when using carbon tax. (3) Based on the regional social cost of carbon (R-SCC), implementing RCT is most effective for curbing climate change and achieving warming targets. This paper contributes to improving the understanding of assessing regional economic damage from climate change and recognizing the role of dynamic carbon tax.

合理评估综合经济损失和征收更有效的碳税对气候治理至关重要。然而，现有研究对效用损失和动态碳税的认识仍然不足。在本研究中，我们构建了一个同时考虑生产和效用损失的多区域动态一般均衡模型。然后，本文重新合理估计了区域综合经济损失（包括效用损失），并详细比较了静态碳税、动态碳税和区域最优动态碳税（RCT）的作用。我们发现(1）随着气候变化的加剧，到 21 世纪末，全球将遭受 8%的生产损失和 1%的公用事业损失。其中，美国和中国面临的经济损失更为明显。(2）如果只在部分地区征收碳税，其他地区将获得 "搭便车 "的好处。环境友好型的动态碳税（先快后慢）会更有效，给各经济体适应碳税的空间。在使用碳税时，需要防范加剧全球不平等的风险。(3) 基于地区碳社会成本（R-SCC），实施地区碳税对遏制气候变化和实现气候变暖目标最为有效。本文有助于加深对气候变化区域经济损失评估的理解，并认识到动态碳税的作用。

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引用次数: 0

Oil price shocks, sustainability index, and green bond market spillovers and connectedness during bear and bull market conditions 熊市和牛市条件下的油价冲击、可持续性指数和绿色债券市场的溢出效应和关联性

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.10.016

Abdullah AlGhazali , Houssem Eddine Belghouthi , Walid Mensi , Ron Mclver , Sang Hoon Kang

This study examines the spillover dynamics and interconnectedness amongst sustainability indices, green bond markets, and oil price shocks. Using data from June 2013 to February 2023, this study employs spillover index methodology to analyze the transmission of shocks and volatility. The findings reveal that there is time-varying connectedness between all variables, which evidences a significant boost during times of crisis and extreme circumstances. Furthermore, the North American and US sustainability indices, along with the SP500 Environmental, Social, and Governance (SP_ESG) index, act as significant transmitters of shocks and volatility to other markets under different market conditions. Conversely, the Asia-Pacific, emerging market, and European sustainability indices, along with the green bond index, have emerged as net volatility receivers. Additionally, the study highlights the role of oil risk shocks as a transmitter of volatility under normal and bullish market statuses, while becoming a receiver in the lower quantile. These results have noteworthy implications for understanding the interdependencies and risks within financial markets and provide insights for investors, policymakers, and market participants.

本研究探讨了可持续性指数、绿色债券市场和石油价格冲击之间的溢出动态和相互联系。本研究使用 2013 年 6 月至 2023 年 2 月的数据，采用溢出指数方法分析冲击和波动的传递。研究结果表明，所有变量之间都存在随时间变化的关联性，在危机和极端情况下，这种关联性会显著增强。此外，在不同的市场条件下，北美和美国的可持续发展指数以及 SP500 环境、社会和治理（SP_ESG）指数是其他市场冲击和波动的重要传播者。相反，亚太地区、新兴市场和欧洲的可持续发展指数以及绿色债券指数则成为波动的净接收者。此外，研究还强调了石油风险冲击在正常和看涨市场状态下作为波动传播者的作用，而在较低的量级则成为接收者。这些结果对理解金融市场内部的相互依存关系和风险具有重要意义，并为投资者、政策制定者和市场参与者提供了启示。

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引用次数: 0