Economic Analysis and Policy最新文献_第4页

Decentralization and air pollution: Unintended environmental consequences of China’s fiscal hierarchy reform 分权与空气污染：中国财政等级制度改革的意外环境后果

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.028

Yongli Chen , Jinpeng Yin , Yudan Cai

This study examines the unintended environmental consequences of a hierarchical fiscal reform in China and their broader economic implications. Focusing on the Province-Managing-County (PMC) reform, which flattened the fiscal hierarchy by bypassing prefectures in budgetary matters, we exploit its staggered rollout and apply a Difference-in-Differences strategy to county-level panel data from 2000 to 2012. The results show that the reform significantly increased annual average PM2.5 concentrations, indicating a deterioration in local air quality. Moreover, rather than a growth–pollution trade-off, GDP per capita also declined in treated counties, suggesting that the policy imposed both environmental and economic costs. These adverse effects were more pronounced in provinces with a larger initial span of control, consistent with weakened oversight under broader supervisory burdens. Mechanism analysis indicates that the reform reshaped county-level fiscal priorities, reducing investments in environmental protection and development while increasing administrative expenditures. At the firm level, regulatory enforcement weakened, leading to greater emissions and reduced adoption of pollution control technologies. Overall, the findings highlight the risks of decentralization reforms implemented without commensurate monitoring capacity, particularly in governance systems with limited administrative bandwidth.

本研究考察了中国分级财政改革的意外环境后果及其更广泛的经济影响。以省管县（PMC）改革为重点，该改革通过在预算问题上绕过地级市，使财政等级扁平化，我们利用其交错推出，并对2000年至2012年的县级面板数据应用差异中的差异策略。结果表明，改革显著提高了年均PM2.5浓度，表明当地空气质量恶化。此外，与增长与污染之间的权衡不同，受政策影响的县的人均GDP也有所下降，这表明该政策既造成了环境成本，也造成了经济成本。这些不利影响在初始控制范围较大的省份更为明显，这与在更大监管负担下监管力度减弱相一致。机制分析表明，改革重塑了县级财政重点，减少了对环境保护和发展的投资，增加了行政支出。在企业一级，监管执法力度减弱，导致排放量增加，污染控制技术的采用减少。总的来说，调查结果突出了在没有相应监测能力的情况下实施权力下放改革的风险，特别是在行政带宽有限的治理系统中。

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引用次数: 0

Institutional Reform and Enterprise Digitalization: A Quasi-Natural Experiment in Cross-Border E-Commerce Pilot Zones 机构改革与企业数字化：跨境电子商务试验区的准自然实验

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.025

Wenjing Bi , Yue Min , Weiyin Xu , Xiaotao Zhang

Enterprise digital transformation is constrained by technological limitations but also by costs, incentives, and other factors shaped by institutional environment. However, the role of institutional innovation remains underexplored. Using 2012-2023 data on Chinese A-share listed firms, we exploit cross-border e-commerce pilot zones as a quasi-natural experiment to examine the impact of institutional reform on digital transformation. Results show the reform promotes digital transformation by reducing institutional transaction costs, improving the digital environment, and expanding market opportunities. Further analyses show the effects are driven by local institutional innovation rather than spatial spillovers and enhance firm efficiency and innovation. Heterogeneity analyses reveal that institutional reform effects are stronger in firms with higher digitalization, lower information transparency, private enterprises, and regions with better digital infrastructure and southeast in China. The identified mechanisms and empirical evidence show how institutional reform promotes digital transformation and offer policy insights for other economies advancing digital economic development.

企业数字化转型不仅受到技术限制的制约，还受到成本、激励和制度环境等因素的制约。然而，制度创新的作用仍未得到充分发掘。利用2012-2023年中国a股上市公司数据，以跨境电子商务试验区为准自然实验，考察制度改革对数字化转型的影响。结果表明，改革通过降低制度交易成本、改善数字环境和扩大市场机会来促进数字化转型。进一步分析表明，这一效应是由地方制度创新驱动的，而不是由空间溢出驱动的，并能促进企业效率和创新。异质性分析表明，在信息化程度较高、信息透明度较低的企业、民营企业、数字基础设施较好的地区和东南部地区，制度改革效应更强。所识别的机制和经验证据显示了制度改革如何促进数字转型，并为其他经济体推进数字经济发展提供政策见解。

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引用次数: 0

How does agricultural modernization promote common prosperity? Evidence from non-agricultural transformation and digital infrastructure 农业现代化如何促进共同富裕？来自非农业转型和数字基础设施的证据

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.029

Yiru Chen , Yaojia Liang , Jiacan Gong , Wei Liu

This paper examines the impact of agricultural modernization on common prosperity in China and uncovers the mechanisms through which modernization promotes inclusive and equitable development. Using provincial panel data from 2011 to 2023, the study constructs a comprehensive agricultural modernization index and a multidimensional common prosperity index to analyze both direct and indirect effects. The results demonstrate that agricultural modernization significantly advances common prosperity by improving agricultural productivity, increasing farmers’ income, and enhancing rural living standards. Further analysis identifies non-agricultural income and non-agricultural employment as critical mediating channels through which modernization facilitates income diversification and labor mobility, thereby narrowing urban–rural income gaps. In addition, digital infrastructure plays a significant moderating role, amplifying the positive effects of agricultural modernization by improving production efficiency, expanding non-agricultural job opportunities, and strengthening the inclusiveness of economic growth. Robustness tests using propensity score matching, the Heckman two-stage model, and lagged variable estimation confirm the stability of the results. Overall, the findings highlight that agricultural modernization not only contributes to economic growth but also enhances income redistribution and social welfare, laying a solid foundation for achieving common prosperity. Policy efforts should therefore focus on promoting coordinated development between agricultural and non-agricultural sectors, expanding digital infrastructure in rural areas, and improving the inclusiveness and sustainability of agricultural modernization.

本文考察了中国农业现代化对共同富裕的影响，揭示了现代化促进包容与公平发展的机制。利用2011 - 2023年的省级面板数据，构建农业综合现代化指数和多维共同富裕指数，分析直接影响和间接影响。研究结果表明，农业现代化通过提高农业生产率、增加农民收入和改善农村生活水平，显著促进了共同富裕。进一步分析发现，非农业收入和非农就业是现代化促进收入多样化和劳动力流动的关键中介渠道，从而缩小城乡收入差距。此外，数字基础设施发挥着显著的调节作用，通过提高生产效率、扩大非农就业机会、增强经济增长的包容性，放大了农业现代化的积极效应。稳健性检验使用倾向得分匹配，Heckman两阶段模型和滞后变量估计证实了结果的稳定性。总体而言，研究结果突出表明，农业现代化不仅有助于经济增长，而且有助于收入再分配和社会福利，为实现共同富裕奠定坚实的基础。政策重点应放在促进农业和非农协调发展，扩大农村数字化基础设施建设，提高农业现代化建设的包容性和可持续性上。

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引用次数: 0

Judicial independence and entrepreneurship: Evidence from China's judicial independence reform 司法独立与企业家精神：来自中国司法独立改革的证据

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.027

Hai Ding , Qiuzuo Yu , Zhengrong Yuan

This study offers a causal evaluation of judicial independence reforms and their impact on entrepreneurship in an emerging transitional economy, exploiting China’s staggered judicial reform initiated in 2014. The reform fundamentally altered the governance of local courts by reallocating authority over judicial finances and personnel away from local governments, thereby limiting political interference in adjudication. We demonstrate that the reform significantly increased entrepreneurial activity, resulting in a 9.7% increase in new firm registrations in reform cities, with the effect remaining robust across alternative specifications. Mechanism analyses indicate that enhanced judicial independence constrains executive power, strengthens public trust, improves access to external finance, and promotes innovation. Moreover, the reform reshaped the composition of new entrants toward a more modern economy, with faster growth in private, contract-intensive, and high-tech firms. Overall, the findings highlight the role of judicial independence reforms and provide policy-relevant insights for developing countries seeking to strengthen legal institutions and support economic development.

本研究以中国2014年启动的交错司法改革为研究对象，对新兴转型经济体中司法独立改革及其对企业家精神的影响进行了因果评价。改革从根本上改变了地方法院的治理方式，重新分配了地方政府对司法财政和人员的权力，从而限制了政治对审判的干预。我们证明，改革显著增加了创业活动，导致改革城市的新公司注册增加了9.7%，并且在其他规范中效果仍然强劲。机制分析表明，司法独立的增强约束了行政权力，增强了公众信任，改善了外部融资渠道，促进了创新。此外，改革重塑了新进入者的构成，使其朝着更现代的经济方向发展，私营企业、合同密集型企业和高科技企业的增长更快。总体而言，研究结果突出了司法独立改革的作用，并为寻求加强法律制度和支持经济发展的发展中国家提供了与政策相关的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Promoting industrial water conservation: evolutionary pathways under government regulation and public preferences 促进工业节水：政府调控与公众偏好下的进化路径

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.026

Dongying Sun , Zhaolin Ouyang , Donghwi Jung

As a major source of water consumption and pollution, the water industry faces an urgent need to transition toward more water-efficient practices. However, how government regulation and public engagement can effectively promote this transition remains an open question. This study develops an evolutionary game model involving government and industrial enterprises under two scenarios and analyzes the stability of strategic equilibria. The results show that, in the absence of public participation, convergence to a water-saving equilibrium requires more stringent conditions. Simulation analyses further indicate that government rewards and penalties constrain and accelerate the evolution of industrial water-saving strategies. In addition, subsidies for water-saving technologies, differences in perceived utility, and the intensity of public supervision-factors that increase water-saving returns-significantly shape the evolutionary trajectory of industrial water conservation. Overall, the study offers a novel analytical framework highlighting the synergistic role of government, industry, and the public in advancing sustainable industrial water conservation.

作为水消耗和污染的主要来源，水工业迫切需要向更节水的做法过渡。然而，政府监管和公众参与如何有效促进这一转变仍然是一个悬而未决的问题。本文建立了政府与工业企业在两种情况下的演化博弈模型，并分析了战略均衡的稳定性。结果表明，在没有公众参与的情况下，趋同于节水均衡需要更严格的条件。仿真分析进一步表明，政府奖惩约束和加速了工业节水战略的演进。此外，节水技术补贴、感知效用差异和公众监督强度这些提高节水回报的因素显著地塑造了工业节水的进化轨迹。总体而言，该研究提供了一个新的分析框架，突出了政府、工业和公众在促进可持续工业节水方面的协同作用。

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引用次数: 0

Who pays for biodiversity risk? Evidence from firm-level labor income shares 谁为生物多样性风险买单？来自企业层面劳动收入份额的证据

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.024

Yongjian Lin, Zhicheng Song

This article examines the impact of biodiversity risk on corporate income distribution in China, focusing on corporate labor income shares. We find that biodiversity risk significantly reduces corporate labor income shares, confirming that employees may become targets for risk transfer due to their weaker bargaining power. Mechanism analysis indicates biodiversity risk drives increased investment in equipment and technology, thereby promoting capital deepening and generating a substitution effect on labor inputs. Meanwhile, biodiversity risk hinders corporate internationalization, narrowing market opportunities and further compressing labor income shares. Additionally, government environmental concerns and industry pollution intensity heighten environmental regulatory pressure, amplifying the impact of biodiversity risk. Conversely, analysts leverage governance effects to mitigate this impact. Our research contributes to ecological economics by revealing the risk spillover effects of biodiversity loss to employees. The findings provide policy insights for governments pursuing the dual objectives of improving environmental quality and enhancing socioeconomic benefits.

本文考察了生物多样性风险对中国企业收入分配的影响，重点关注企业劳动收入份额。我们发现，生物多样性风险显著降低了企业劳动收入份额，证实了员工议价能力较弱，可能成为风险转移的目标。机制分析表明，生物多样性风险驱动设备和技术投资增加，从而促进资本深化，对劳动力投入产生替代效应。同时，生物多样性风险阻碍了企业国际化，缩小了市场机会，进一步压缩了劳动收入份额。此外，政府对环境的关注和工业污染强度加大了环境监管压力，放大了生物多样性风险的影响。相反，分析人员利用治理效果来减轻这种影响。我们的研究揭示了生物多样性丧失对员工的风险溢出效应，为生态经济学做出了贡献。研究结果为追求改善环境质量和提高社会经济效益双重目标的政府提供了政策见解。

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引用次数: 0

Market dynamics and environmental response: Mechanisms of carbon performance gains from green M&As 市场动态与环境响应：绿色并购带来的碳绩效提升机制

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.022

Xiaozhong Huang, Yongzhen Fan

As sustainability becomes a central concern in economic policy, firms are increasingly engaging in strategic transactions that reflect environmental priorities. This study examines whether green mergers and acquisitions can serve as effective instruments for enhancing corporate carbon performance. The results indicate that such M&A activities are associated with measurable improvements in carbon efficiency, primarily driven by more disciplined governance practices and a recalibration of innovation strategies. These mechanisms help optimize post-merger resource allocation and reduce inefficiencies linked to symbolic environmental actions. Notably, the benefits are not uniform. They are more evident among firms operating in regulatory-intensive regions, in non-polluting sectors, and those with stronger alignment to sustainability objectives through investor pressure or internal strategies. These findings provide empirical support for the role of market-based environmental instruments in transitioning towards a low-carbon economy. The study highlights the importance of tailoring environmental policy to firm heterogeneity, strengthening institutional frameworks, and encouraging strategic alignment between corporate behavior and environmental goals in emerging markets.

随着可持续发展成为经济政策的核心问题，企业越来越多地参与反映环境优先事项的战略交易。本研究探讨绿色并购是否可以作为提高企业碳绩效的有效工具。研究结果表明，此类并购活动与碳效率的可衡量改善有关，这主要是由更有纪律的治理实践和创新战略的重新校准驱动的。这些机制有助于优化合并后的资源配置，减少与象征性环境行动相关的低效率。值得注意的是，这些好处并不统一。在监管密集地区、非污染部门以及通过投资者压力或内部战略更符合可持续发展目标的公司中，这种情况更为明显。这些发现为市场环境工具在向低碳经济转型中的作用提供了实证支持。该研究强调了在新兴市场中根据企业异质性调整环境政策、加强制度框架以及鼓励企业行为与环境目标之间的战略一致性的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Waves of uncertainty: Time-varying spillovers of China’s economic policies on belt and road economies 不确定性浪潮：中国经济政策对“一带一路”经济体的时变溢出效应

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.021

Jingyi Wang , Weijiang Liu , Shu Wang , Baicheng Zhou

In recent years, rising external economic policy uncertainty (EPU) has exerted significant influence on the economic and financial stability of emerging markets. Using quarterly macroeconomic data from 154 economies along the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) between 2013 and 2022, this paper applies a K-means clustering approach to classify these economies into four groups. It constructs a TVP-SV-FAVAR model to systematically examine the dynamic spillover effects of China’s EPU (CNEPU) on BRI countries and regions from four dimensions: production, consumption, investment, and trade. The main findings are as follows: (1) CNEPU generates significant spillover effects on BRI economies, with pronounced heterogeneity driven by differences in macroeconomic fundamentals and the degree of economic linkages with China. (2) The spillover effects demonstrate both persistence and time variation: in the short run, they spread rapidly through market expectations and capital flows, whereas in the long run, their magnitude diminishes but their duration remains substantial. (3) Mechanism tests reveal that policy uncertainty transmits through both financial markets and economic fundamentals, with heterogeneous impacts arising from fiscal, monetary, trade, and exchange rate policy uncertainty. These findings carry important implications for emerging economies in formulating targeted policies to strengthen their resilience against external shocks.

近年来，外部经济政策不确定性的上升对新兴市场国家的经济金融稳定产生了重大影响。本文利用2013年至2022年“一带一路”沿线154个经济体的季度宏观经济数据，采用k均值聚类方法将这些经济体分为四类。构建了TVP-SV-FAVAR模型，从生产、消费、投资、贸易四个维度系统考察了中国EPU对“一带一路”沿线国家和地区的动态溢出效应。研究发现：(1)CNEPU对“一带一路”经济体产生了显著的溢出效应，且受宏观经济基本面差异和与中国经济联系程度差异的驱动，其异质性显著。(2)外溢效应具有持久性和时变性，短期内通过市场预期和资本流动迅速扩散，而长期内外溢效应强度减小，但持续时间较长。(3)机制检验表明，政策不确定性通过金融市场和经济基本面传导，财政、货币、贸易和汇率政策的不确定性产生异质影响。这些发现对新兴经济体制定有针对性的政策以增强抵御外部冲击的能力具有重要意义。

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引用次数: 0

Climate Risk, Induced Technological Upgrading, and Firm Productivity 气候风险、诱导技术升级与企业生产率

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.023

Yanan Wang , Yicong Wang , Xian Fang , Hao Li

This study examines the impact of climate risk on firms’ total factor productivity (TFP), with a focus on how firms adapt to climate-related disruptions through technological upgrading. Using panel data from Chinese listed firms between 2010 and 2022, we reveal that climate risk has a significantly positive influence on TFP, with extreme rainfall exhibiting the most pronounced effect. The primary mechanism involves firms adopting industrial robots to mitigate disruptions to labor input caused by climate-related shocks. This shift toward labor-saving technologies reshapes firms’ human capital structure by increasing the proportion of highly skilled and well-educated workers, enhancing labor productivity and thereby boosting TFP. This pattern is particularly evident after 2013, coinciding with China’s industrial robot adoption surge. Heterogeneity analyses further reveal amplified effects among non-state-owned, climate-sensitive, and financially resilient firms. Overall, these findings support Hicks’ induced innovation hypothesis and highlight how climate risk drives the adoption of labor-saving technologies and enhances firm productivity.

本研究考察了气候风险对企业全要素生产率（TFP）的影响，重点研究了企业如何通过技术升级适应与气候相关的干扰。利用2010 - 2022年中国上市公司的面板数据，我们发现气候风险对TFP有显著的正向影响，其中极端降雨的影响最为显著。主要机制包括企业采用工业机器人来减轻气候相关冲击对劳动力投入造成的干扰。这种向劳动节约型技术的转变通过增加高技能和受过良好教育的工人的比例，从而提高劳动生产率，从而提高全要素生产率，从而重塑了企业的人力资本结构。这种模式在2013年之后尤为明显，恰逢中国工业机器人的采用激增。异质性分析进一步揭示了非国有企业、气候敏感企业和财务弹性企业之间的效应放大。总的来说，这些发现支持希克斯的诱导创新假说，并强调了气候风险如何推动采用节省劳动力的技术并提高企业生产率。

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引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to “Enterprise digital transformation and bond credit spreads: From the perspective of risk premium’ [Economic Analysis and Policy 88 (2025) 2079—2097] “企业数字化转型与债券信用利差：从风险溢价的角度”的勘误表[经济分析与政策88 (2025)2079-2097]

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.019

Kunhai Du , Jun Liu , Kunlun Wang , Qicheng Zhao

引用次数: 0