Economic Analysis and Policy最新文献

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Can new digital infrastructure enhance ecological total factor productivity? Evidence from Chinese cities 新的数字基础设施能否提高生态全要素生产率？来自中国城市的证据

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.10.040

Chenchen Wang , Yaobin Liu , Sheng Hu , Xuewen Liu

During a pivotal time for global environmental challenges and economic restructuring, investigating the potential of new digital infrastructure (NDI) to enhance ecological total factor productivity (ETFP) emerges as crucial for propelling sustainable development initiatives. This study utilizes panel data collected from Chinese cities from 2010–2021, combining econometric models, Python text analysis, equivalence factor method, and ArcGIS overlay analysis to theoretically and empirically examine whether NDI can enhance ETFP and its action mechanisms. The study finds that NDI significantly enhances ETFP. After a series of robustness checks and instrumental variable regressions, the conclusions remain valid. Further mechanism tests reveal that the construction of NDI effectively boosts ETFP primarily through dual-structure optimization effect, green innovation effect, and economic agglomeration effect. The influence of NDI on enhancing ETFP exhibits significant heterogeneity, especially on the west side of the Hu Huanyong Line, in ecological regulation functional zones, resource-based cities, cities dominated by the secondary industry, and smart cities, where the effects of NDI on enhancing ETFP are more pronounced. Moreover, this effect shows temporal differences, particularly after 2013, when the enhancement effect became significantly strong. Furthermore, as resource allocation efficiency and public environmental awareness increase, this enhancement effect become even increasingly significant. This study not only deepens the understanding of the potential for NDI to promote sustainable development but also furnishes theoretical and empirical substantiation for the green transformation of the global economy.

在全球环境挑战和经济转型的关键时期，研究新型数字基础设施（NDI）在提高生态全要素生产率（ETFP）方面的潜力对于推动可持续发展至关重要。本研究利用 2010-2021 年中国城市面板数据，结合计量经济学模型、Python 文本分析、等效因子法和 ArcGIS 叠加分析等方法，从理论和实证角度探讨了新型数字基础设施能否提高生态全要素生产率及其作用机制。研究发现，NDI 能显著增强 ETFP。经过一系列稳健性检验和工具变量回归，结论仍然有效。进一步的机制检验表明，NDI 的建设主要通过双重结构优化效应、绿色创新效应和经济集聚效应有效促进了 ETFP 的发展。NDI对提升ETFP的影响表现出显著的异质性，尤其是在环线西侧、生态调节功能区、资源型城市、第二产业主导型城市和智慧城市，NDI对提升ETFP的效果更为明显。此外，这种效应还表现出时间上的差异，尤其是在 2013 年之后，增强效应明显增强。此外，随着资源配置效率的提高和公众环保意识的增强，这种增强效应会变得更加显著。这项研究不仅加深了人们对 NDI 促进可持续发展潜力的理解，也为全球经济的绿色转型提供了理论和实证依据。

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引用次数: 0

Government data opening and corporate cash holdings: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China 政府数据开放与企业现金持有：来自中国准自然实验的证据

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.10.043

Huilong Liu , Jing Xie , Yanning Yang

We investigate whether government data opening reduces corporate cash holdings. Using the establishment of city-level open government data platforms in China as a quasi-natural experiment, we find that government data opening significantly reduces firms’ cash holdings. The effect is more pronounced when firm uncertainty is higher, when firms are more financially constrained, when firms are non-state-owned, when firms trade less in the internal market, and when there are fewer alternative information sources in a region. Overall, our evidence suggests that government data opening reduces environmental uncertainty and firms’ precautionary cash holdings.

我们研究了政府数据开放是否会减少企业现金持有量。通过在中国建立城市级政府数据开放平台这一准自然实验，我们发现政府数据开放会显著减少企业的现金持有量。在企业不确定性较高、企业财务约束较强、企业为非国有企业、企业在内部市场交易较少以及地区替代信息来源较少的情况下，这种效应更为明显。总体而言，我们的证据表明，政府数据开放降低了环境的不确定性和企业的预防性现金持有量。

引用次数: 0

New energy policy and new quality productive forces: A quasi-natural experiment based on demonstration cities 新能源政策和新的优质生产力：基于示范城市的准自然实验

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.10.039

Zhenhua Zhang , Peixuan Li , Xinyi Wang , Rong Ran , Wenshuai Wu

The impact of the new energy policy on the new quality productive forces (NQPF) in developing countries still lacks empirical evidence. The new energy demonstration city policy (NEDCP), serving as a comprehensive energy strategy in China, holds significant importance in driving the transformation of energy structures and fostering the NQPF. Based on the panel data collected from 276 Chinese cities, this study employs the difference-in-differences approach to examine the impact of the NEDCP on the NQPF. The findings indicate a substantial enhancement in the NQPF as a result of the NEDCP. While the NEDCP has a short-term effect on the NQPF, the long-term effect is insignificant. When considering the removal of low-carbon city variables, the influence of NEDCP was significantly improved. The NEDCP indirectly improves the NQPF through urban innovation capacity, government fiscal support, and industrial structure upgrading. The human capital level positively moderates the NEDCP's effect on the NQPF. In contrast to cities reliant on natural resources, the NEDCP exhibits a significantly greater influence on augmenting the NQPF in cities that are not dependent on such resources. Cities with higher urbanization levels experience a more substantial positive impact on the NQPF from the NEDCP compared to cities with lower urbanization levels. Our findings have important theoretical significance and can provide practical guidance to help developing countries improve NQPF through new energy policies.

新能源政策对发展中国家新优质生产力（NQPF）的影响仍然缺乏实证证据。新能源示范城市政策（NEDCP）作为中国的一项综合能源战略，在推动能源结构转型、促进新优质生产力发展方面具有重要意义。本研究基于从中国 276 个城市收集的面板数据，采用差分法研究了新能源示范城市政策对国家质量政策框架的影响。研究结果表明，国家经济发展和改革方案大大提高了国家质量政策框架。虽然 NEDCP 对 NQPF 有短期影响，但长期影响并不显著。当考虑剔除低碳城市变量时，NEDCP 的影响得到明显改善。NEDCP 通过城市创新能力、政府财政支持和产业结构升级间接改善了 NQPF。人力资本水平正向调节了 NEDCP 对 NQPF 的影响。与依赖自然资源的城市相比，NEDCP 对不依赖自然资源的城市的 NQPF 的提升作用明显更大。与城市化水平较低的城市相比，城市化水平较高的城市受到 NEDCP 的积极影响更大。我们的研究结果具有重要的理论意义，可为发展中国家通过新能源政策改善国家质保框架提供实践指导。

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引用次数: 0

The impact of financial inclusion on human capital investment: Evidence from China Family Panel Studies 普惠金融对人力资本投资的影响：来自中国家庭面板研究的证据

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.10.049

Dan Ma, Hongfan Chen, Lifu Fu

This paper explores the influence of financial inclusion on human capital investment among Chinese households. Although prior research underscores that financial inclusion fosters economic growth, its direct impact on household-level human capital investment remains insufficiently explored, particularly in developing regions. This research utilizes data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) to develop a comprehensive household-level financial inclusion index, including bank accounts, loans, insurance, and digital payments. A two-way fixed effects model is employed to assess both the impact and underlying mechanisms through which financial inclusion affects human capital investment. The findings indicate that financial inclusion enhances human capital investment among Chinese households, with stronger effects observed in the western regions and among low-income families. This impact is realized by alleviating financing constraints, boosting property income, and mitigating income uncertainty. The results highlight the critical importance of actively promoting financial inclusion in developing countries, with particular emphasis on reaching underdeveloped regions and low-income households.

本文探讨了普惠金融对中国家庭人力资本投资的影响。尽管之前的研究强调普惠金融能促进经济增长，但其对家庭层面人力资本投资的直接影响仍未得到充分探讨，尤其是在发展中地区。本研究利用中国家庭面板研究（CFPS）的数据，建立了一个全面的家庭层面普惠金融指数，包括银行账户、贷款、保险和数字支付。研究采用双向固定效应模型来评估普惠金融对人力资本投资的影响和内在机制。研究结果表明，普惠金融增强了中国家庭的人力资本投资，对西部地区和低收入家庭的影响更大。这种影响是通过缓解融资约束、增加财产性收入和降低收入的不确定性来实现的。研究结果凸显了在发展中国家积极推动普惠金融的极端重要性，尤其要注重惠及欠发达地区和低收入家庭。

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引用次数: 0

The impact of China's residence permit system on the floating population's willingness to settle in cities 中国居住证制度对流动人口落户意愿的影响

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.10.044

Ming Zhang , Panpan Du , Hong Tan

China's residence permit system is the focus of the nation's household registration system reform and a crucial aspect of promoting the new people-centered urbanization. Based on the China Migrants Dynamic Survey, this study uses the probit regression model to investigate the impact of the residence permit system on the floating population's willingness to settle in cities and examines the moderating effect of local government's financial resources. The results show that the residence permit system has a significant promoting effect on the migrants’ willingness to settle. And local government financial resources can strengthen the effect of the residence permit system on the willingness to settle. Additional exploration shows that the residence permit system can enhance the willingness of floating populations to settle in urban areas by increasing their income and consumption levels. Heterogeneity analysis shows that for non-agricultural household registration, high-education, high-income, and interprovincial migrating groups, the incentive effect of the residence permit system is more stronger. Based on the findings, while improving the residence permit system and expanding its coverage groups, transfer payments from the central government to local governments should be increased to effectively improve the value of residence permits, promote the floating population's settlement in cities, and advance China's new urbanization.

居住证制度是中国户籍制度改革的重点，也是推进以人为核心的新型城镇化的关键环节。本研究基于中国流动人口动态调查，采用 probit 回归模型研究居住证制度对流动人口落户意愿的影响，并考察地方政府财力的调节作用。结果表明，居住证制度对流动人口的落户意愿有显著的促进作用。而地方政府财力可以加强居住证制度对落户意愿的影响。进一步的探索表明，居住证制度可以通过提高流动人口的收入和消费水平来增强其在城市地区的定居意愿。异质性分析表明，对于非农业户籍、高学历、高收入、跨省流动人口群体，居住证制度的激励作用更强。基于研究结果，在完善居住证制度并扩大其覆盖群体的同时，应加大中央政府对地方政府的转移支付力度，以有效提高居住证的含金量，促进流动人口在城市落户，推进我国新型城镇化进程。

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引用次数: 0

Does public pension promote or inhibit enterprise total factor productivity? Evidence from China 公共养老金是促进还是抑制企业全要素生产率？来自中国的证据

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.10.032

Qianwen Zheng , Zilan Liu , Yunxiao Zhang

The relationship between pension contribution rates and productivity remains a significant topic of discussion. This study utilizes micro-level data to examine the interaction between statutory pension contribution rates, actual contribution rates, and the total factor productivity (TFP) of enterprises. The findings indicate that the reduction in the Basic Old-age Insurance contribution rate resulted in a 0.985 percentage point decline in actual contribution rates and 4.3 percentage point decline in TFP. Pension insurance contribution collection by tax authorities results in the highest collection intensity and lowest elasticity coefficient, while agency collection exhibits greater variability. Additionally, actual pension contribution rates and TFP exhibit an inverted U-shaped relationship. When the public pension contribution rate is either too high or too low, it may hinder improvements in enterprise production efficiency. Instead, there exists an optimal range of contribution rates where public pensions can foster a positive interaction between R&D investment, capital-skill substitution, and employee incentives. State-owned, labor-intensive, and low-wage firms experience sharper productivity declines beyond a lower optimal contribution rate, indicating that these firms reach peak productivity at lower contribution levels.

养老金缴费率与生产率之间的关系仍然是一个重要的讨论话题。本研究利用微观数据，考察了法定养老保险缴费率、实际缴费率与企业全要素生产率（TFP）之间的互动关系。研究结果表明，降低基本养老保险缴费率导致实际缴费率下降 0.985 个百分点，全要素生产率下降 4.3 个百分点。由税务机关征收养老保险费的征收强度最高，弹性系数最低，而代理征收的弹性系数较大。此外，养老金实际缴费率与全要素生产率呈现倒 U 型关系。当公共养老金缴费率过高或过低时，都会阻碍企业生产效率的提高。相反，存在一个最佳缴费率范围，在此范围内，公共养老金可以促进研发投资、资本-技能替代和员工激励之间的良性互动。国有企业、劳动密集型企业和低工资企业的生产率会在较低的最佳缴费率之后急剧下降，这表明这些企业在较低的缴费率水平上就能达到最高生产率。

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引用次数: 0

The impact of green finance on labor income share: Evidence from green finance reform and innovation pilot zone 绿色金融对劳动收入份额的影响：来自绿色金融改革创新试验区的证据

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.10.014

Bingnan Guo , Weizhe Feng , Ji Lin

Enhancing the labor income share (LIS) is essential for optimizing the income distribution structure and achieving the goals of Chinese modernization. Through the panel data of Chinese A-share listed enterprises from 2013 to 2022, we construct a multi-period difference-in-differences model to evaluate the effect of the green finance reform and innovation pilot zones (GFRIPZ) on the enterprises’ LIS and its underlying mechanisms. The research results show that: (1) The GFRIPZ significantly increased the LIS of enterprises. And this conclusion still holds after a series of robustness checks. (2) Mechanism analyses indicates that the GFRIPZ primarily enhances the LIS by alleviating enterprises’ financing constraints and increasing operating income. (3) Heterogeneity analyses reveal that, compared to the eastern China and state-owned enterprises, the income effect of GFRIPZ is stronger in the central-western China and non-state-owned enterprises.

提高劳动收入占比对于优化收入分配结构、实现中国现代化目标至关重要。通过2013-2022年中国A股上市企业的面板数据，构建多期差分模型，评价绿色金融改革创新试验区（GFRIPZ）对企业劳动收入占比的影响及其内在机制。研究结果表明(1）绿色金融改革创新试验区显著提高了企业的 LIS。经过一系列稳健性检验，这一结论仍然成立。(2)机理分析表明，广东金融投资促进区主要通过缓解企业融资约束和增加营业收入来提高企业的LIS。(3）异质性分析表明，与东部地区和国有企业相比，中西部地区和非国有企业的收入效应更强。

引用次数: 0

Pro-growth or limit-on: How environmental regulations affect residents' well-being 支持增长还是限制增长：环境法规如何影响居民福祉

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.10.034

Gaofei Zhang , Jingyi Li , Jing Ma , Zhenhai Liu

This paper uses micro panel data based on the five-annual China Family Panel Survey (CFPS) to study the relationship between environmental regulation and residents' happiness. The results are as follows. Firstly, environmental regulation has a significant positive impact on residents' happiness. Secondly, Environmental regulation has the most significant impact on residents' happiness in eastern China. Thirdly, Environmental regulation can improve residents' happiness by reducing environmental pollution, reducing family health care expenditure, and improving social security. Finally, there is an inverted u-shaped relationship between environmental regulation and residents' happiness. Therefore, environmental regulation can be an effective way to improve residents' happiness. The government can implement appropriate environmental regulations to improve residents' happiness.

本文使用基于五年一度的中国家庭面板调查（CFPS）的微观面板数据，研究环境规制与居民幸福感之间的关系。研究结果如下。首先，环境规制对居民幸福感有显著的正向影响。第二，环境规制对华东地区居民幸福感的影响最为显著。第三，环境规制可以通过减少环境污染、降低家庭医疗支出和改善社会保障来提高居民幸福感。最后，环境规制与居民幸福感之间存在倒 U 型关系。因此，环境规制是提高居民幸福感的有效途径。政府可以实施适当的环境规制来提高居民的幸福感。

引用次数: 0

How does social security contribution affect enterprise performance: A perpective based on new structural economics 社会保障缴款如何影响企业绩效：基于新结构经济学的视角

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.10.035

Haining Yan , Zijin Wang , Changjiang Shu , liou jennhae

This paper empirically analyzes the impact of social security contributions on firm performance using data from China's Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies from 2010 to 2022. The findings show that social security contributions have an inverted U-shaped relationship with firm performance, which is due to the fact that the human capital effect of social security contributions is greater than the crowding-out effect before the optimal point, and the crowding-out effect is greater than the human capital effect after the optimal point is reached. The above conclusion still holds after a series of robustness tests. In addition, this paper constructs the optimal social security contribution rate for enterprise performance from the relevant theory of factor endowment change in new structural economics, and at the same time finds that deviation from the optimal social security contribution rate reduces enterprise performance. This paper analyzes the heterogeneous roles played by both the social security contribution rate and the optimal social security contribution rate, and it can be found that these results vary across firms with different property rights and factor intensities. The findings of this paper provide policy considerations for setting the optimal social security contribution rate.

本文利用 2010 年至 2022 年中国沪深 A 股上市公司的数据，实证分析了社保缴费对企业绩效的影响。研究结果表明，社保缴费与企业绩效呈倒 "U "型关系，这是由于在达到最优点之前，社保缴费的人力资本效应大于挤出效应，而在达到最优点之后，挤出效应又大于人力资本效应。经过一系列稳健性检验，上述结论仍然成立。此外，本文从新结构经济学要素禀赋变化的相关理论出发，构建了企业绩效的最优社保缴费率，同时发现偏离最优社保缴费率会降低企业绩效。本文分析了社保缴费率和最优社保缴费率所发挥的异质性作用，可以发现这些结果在不同产权和要素密集度的企业中存在差异。本文的研究结果为设定最优社保缴费率提供了政策参考。

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引用次数: 0

Does the cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot area policy help to improve the level of urban technological innovation? 跨境电子商务综合试验区政策是否有助于提高城市技术创新水平？

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.10.012

Yufan Liang , Xiaolong He

This study assesses the policy effects on the level of urban technological innovation (LUTI) in three pilot cities (Hefei, Zhengzhou, and Shenyang) that have implemented the cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot area (CECPA) policy. First, based on urban panel data from 2006 to 2021, we use the entropy-TOPSIS model to measure LUTI. Further, this study applies the synthetic control method (SCM) to evaluate the effect of policy treatment on three cities. Additionally, this study analyzes two mechanism variables-urbanization rate and average salary level of urban employees-to assess the internal mechanisms affecting LUTI. Lastly, we provide the corresponding countermeasure enlightenment. Empirical evidence suggests that the CECPA policy significantly improves the LUTI in cities. From 2016 to 2021, the LUTI in Hefei rose from 0.4508 to 0.8135, and in Zhengzhou from 0.5316 to 0.7296. Shenyang's LUTI increased from 0.7427 to 0.8307 from 2018 to 2021. Overall, the policy has had a positive effect on the development of technological innovation in cities. In particular, the CECPA policy has a positive impact on the LUTI by increasing the urbanization rate and increasing the average salary level of employees. These results provide a good example of cities implementing CECPA policy and carrying out technological innovation reforms.

本研究评估了实施跨境电子商务综合试验区（CECPA）政策的三个试点城市（合肥、郑州和沈阳）的政策对城市技术创新水平（LUTI）的影响。首先，基于 2006 年至 2021 年的城市面板数据，我们使用熵-TOPSIS 模型来衡量 LUTI。此外，本研究还运用合成控制法（SCM）评估了政策处理对三个城市的影响。此外，本研究还分析了两个机制变量--城市化率和城镇职工平均工资水平，以评估影响 LUTI 的内部机制。最后，我们提出了相应的对策启示。经验证据表明，CECPA 政策显著改善了城市的 LUTI。从 2016 年到 2021 年，合肥的 LUTI 从 0.4508 上升到 0.8135，郑州从 0.5316 上升到 0.7296。从 2018 年到 2021 年，沈阳的 LUTI 从 0.7427 升至 0.8307。总体而言，该政策对城市科技创新发展产生了积极影响。特别是，CECPA 政策通过提高城市化率和提高员工平均工资水平，对 LUTI 产生了积极影响。这些结果为城市实施 CECPA 政策和进行技术创新改革提供了一个很好的范例。

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