Economic Analysis and Policy最新文献_第9页

Does digital governance improve urban carbon balance? Evidence from China’s e-governance pilot 数字治理能改善城市碳平衡吗？来自中国电子政务试点的证据

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.12.030

Jiansheng You

Governments worldwide are accelerating digital governance, yet its effects on urban carbon balance remain unclear. This paper argues that e-governance improves carbon balance by reducing information and enforcement frictions that would otherwise allow high-emission activities to persist. Results show that pilot cities experience significantly greater improvements in urban carbon balance than non-pilot cities, reflecting a more efficient allocation of regulatory resources rather than broad macroeconomic trends. The gains are more evident in cities with stronger internet infrastructure, more stable political incentives, and less resource-dependent economic structures. Moreover, in regions with stricter environmental enforcement, higher public environmental concern, and greater green innovation capacity, the effect is amplified, indicating that digital governance reinforces existing regulatory and societal pressures. Spatial spillover evidence further shows that the improvement extends beyond treated cities, fostering regional advancement. The study identifies an institutional channel through which information capacity shapes environmental performance, complementing existing literature that focuses mainly on technological or industrial drivers.

世界各国政府正在加速数字治理，但其对城市碳平衡的影响尚不清楚。本文认为，电子政务通过减少信息和执法摩擦来改善碳平衡，否则高排放活动将持续下去。结果表明，试点城市的碳平衡改善明显大于非试点城市，这反映了监管资源的更有效配置，而不是宏观经济的普遍趋势。在互联网基础设施更完善、政治激励更稳定、经济结构对资源依赖程度更低的城市，这种收益更为明显。此外，在环境执法更严格、公众环境关注度更高、绿色创新能力更强的地区，这种效应被放大，表明数字治理加剧了现有的监管和社会压力。空间溢出证据进一步表明，这种改善延伸到了受治疗城市之外，促进了区域进步。该研究确定了一个制度渠道，通过该渠道信息能力塑造环境绩效，补充了主要关注技术或工业驱动因素的现有文献。

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引用次数: 0

Political connection formation and firm performance: Evidence from China 政治关系形成与企业绩效：来自中国的证据

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.12.025

Tao Bai , Youzong Xu , Xiao Pan

This paper investigates the relationship between political connections and firm performance by exploring the mechanisms underneath political connection formation and the determining factor(s) of these mechanisms. We argue that there are two mechanisms, promotive and exploitative, upon which political connections are formed, and these mechanisms are determined by connecting officers’ exploitative power: Political connections with political officials who have strong (weak) exploitative power are more likely to be formed upon the exploitative (promotive) mechanism. Political connections formed upon the promotive mechanism positively affect connected firms’ performance, while the influences of those formed upon the exploitative mechanism are negative. Using China's recent Anti-Corruption Campaign as a natural experiment, we test our arguments using a comprehensive data set on publicly listed non-state-controlled firms in China from 2008 to 2016 and find evidence supporting our arguments. Our findings provide explanations to why previous literature finds conflicting results on the influences of political connections and why firms hold political connections that negatively affect their performance. Our empirical results also show that political connections with executive-branch political officials tend to negatively influence connected firms’ performance, and the influences of political connections with legislative-branch political officials tend to be positive. This finding not only suggests that policies restricting executive-branch political officials’ exploitative power may help improve firm performance but also highlights the importance of considering the heterogeneity between political connections in different branches when studying the interactions between industries and government authorities. This heterogeneity has been under-considered in extant literature.

本文通过探究政治联系形成的机制及其决定因素来研究政治联系与企业绩效之间的关系。我们认为，政治联系的形成有促进机制和剥削机制两种机制，而这些机制是由军官剥削权力的连接决定的：剥削权力强（弱）的政治官员更有可能在剥削（促进）机制上形成政治联系。在促进机制下形成的政治关系对关联企业绩效有正向影响，而在剥削机制下形成的政治关系对关联企业绩效有负向影响。我们将中国最近的反腐运动作为一个自然实验，使用2008年至2016年中国非国有上市公司的综合数据集来检验我们的论点，并找到支持我们论点的证据。我们的研究结果解释了为什么以前的文献在政治关系的影响上发现了相互矛盾的结果，以及为什么企业拥有政治关系会对其绩效产生负面影响。我们的实证结果还表明，与行政部门政治官员的政治关系往往会对关联企业的绩效产生负面影响，而与立法部门政治官员的政治关系往往会产生积极影响。这一发现不仅表明限制行政部门政治官员剥削权力的政策可能有助于提高企业绩效，而且还强调了在研究行业与政府当局之间的相互作用时考虑不同部门政治关系之间异质性的重要性。这种异质性在现有文献中没有得到充分的考虑。

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引用次数: 0

When expectations matter: The role of fiscal foresight in government spending shocks in Peru 当预期重要：财政远见在秘鲁政府支出冲击中的作用

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.12.006

Jose Aguilar , Erick Lahura

This paper estimates the macroeconomic effects of government spending in Peru while explicitly accounting for fiscal foresight—the possibility that economic agents anticipate future fiscal actions before they are implemented. We use a standard vector autoregressive (VAR) framework with recursive identification and incorporate quarterly government spending projections published by the Central Reserve Bank of Peru to isolate the anticipated component of fiscal policy. Unanticipated government spending shocks raise real GDP; however, their effects are systematically overstated when anticipated fiscal information is omitted. Anticipated spending shocks – captured through government spending projections – also generate positive and statistically significant effects on output. These findings remain robust to alternative measures of fiscal foresight, different recursive orderings, and the inclusion of additional control variables, including private consumption and terms of trade. The results highlight the importance of distinguishing between anticipated and unanticipated fiscal actions for credible empirical assessment of fiscal multipliers in emerging economies.

本文估算了秘鲁政府支出的宏观经济效应，同时明确考虑了财政预见——经济主体在未来财政行动实施前预测的可能性。我们使用具有递归识别的标准向量自回归（VAR）框架，并结合秘鲁中央储备银行发布的季度政府支出预测，以隔离财政政策的预期组成部分。意料之外的政府支出冲击提高了实际GDP；然而，当预期的财政信息被忽略时，它们的影响被系统性地夸大了。预期的支出冲击——通过政府支出预测反映出来——也会对产出产生积极的、统计上显著的影响。这些发现对于财政预见、不同递归排序以及包括私人消费和贸易条件在内的其他控制变量的替代措施仍然是强有力的。研究结果强调了区分预期和非预期财政行动对于对新兴经济体财政乘数进行可信的实证评估的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

The synergistic effects of demand-pull and supply-push policies on firm’s green innovation: Evidence from China 需求拉动和供给推动政策对企业绿色创新的协同效应：来自中国的证据

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.12.027

Jie Ma , Xudong Chen , Tong Feng , Bing Xu , Hongyuan Lu , Quan Guo

Addressing escalating environmental challenges requires effective government intervention to guide firms toward green innovation. This study examines how such policies influence firms’ green innovation, focusing on the dual roles of supply-side (environmental subsidies) and demand-side (green public procurement) interventions. Using a dataset of Chinese A-share listed firms from 2015 to 2022, we find that the joint implementation of these policies generates a significant positive synergy, surpassing the additive effects of isolated interventions. The synergy effects are more pronounced in non-heavy-pollution industries, state-owned firms, and large-scale firms. Mechanism analysis reveals that this synergy operates by enhancing environmental strategic awareness, relaxing financing constraints, and mitigating the dual uncertainty of R&D and market returns. Additionally, green public procurement generates spillover effects at both industry and city levels, whereas environmental subsidies generate spillovers only within industries. Our study deepens the understanding of supply-side and demand-side green transformation support policies and provides important insights for policymakers aiming to promote sustainable development.

应对不断升级的环境挑战需要有效的政府干预，引导企业走向绿色创新。本研究考察了这些政策如何影响企业的绿色创新，重点关注供给侧（环境补贴）和需求侧（绿色公共采购）干预的双重作用。利用2015 - 2022年中国a股上市公司数据，我们发现这些政策的联合实施产生了显著的正协同效应，超过了孤立干预的加性效应。在非重污染行业、国有企业和大型企业中，协同效应更为明显。机制分析表明，这种协同效应通过增强环境战略意识、放松融资约束、减轻研发和市场回报的双重不确定性来实现。此外，绿色公共采购在行业和城市层面都会产生溢出效应，而环境补贴仅在行业内部产生溢出效应。我们的研究加深了对供给侧和需求侧绿色转型支持政策的理解，为旨在促进可持续发展的政策制定者提供了重要的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Gender choice at work 职场性别选择

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.12.018

Enriqueta Aragones

This paper analyzes the demand based causes of gender discrimination in the labor market and it aims at explaining the currently existing gender gaps in terms of labor market participation and labor income. I propose a formal model to analyze the gender discrimination that individuals face at work due to taste-based discrimination. I study the effects of discrimination on the labor market participation, income, and utility distributions and compare these effects between the female and male sectors of the society. I show that the conditions that dissipate the gender gaps improve efficiency as well. However, in order to reach a first best it is necessary to eliminate all kinds of gender related idiosyncratic preferences that are based on stereotypes and conscious and unconscious biases.

本文分析了劳动力市场性别歧视的需求原因，旨在解释目前存在的劳动力市场参与和劳动收入方面的性别差距。我提出了一个正式的模型来分析个人在工作中由于品味歧视而面临的性别歧视。我研究了歧视对劳动力市场参与、收入和效用分配的影响，并比较了社会中女性和男性部门的这些影响。我指出，消除性别差距的条件也能提高效率。然而，为了达到最佳，有必要消除基于刻板印象和有意识和无意识偏见的各种与性别相关的特殊偏好。

引用次数: 0

The innovation effects of science and technology finance spatial networks: Evidence from China 科技金融空间网络的创新效应：来自中国的证据

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.12.023

Kou Mingting , Chen Shihui , Yang Yifan

Amid the accelerating convergence of the knowledge economy and technological advancement, science and technology finance spatial correlation networks (STFN) have emerged as transformative drivers of innovation resource allocation and collaboration. This study leverages provincial-level relational data from China (2012–2021) to construct STFN. It employs exploratory spatiotemporal data analysis methods to uncover the spatial distribution and dynamic evolution of science and technology finance (STF) and its networks. Network centralities are extracted to quantify structural characteristics, and a Tobit model is applied to examine their impact on urban innovation systematically. The findings reveal that China’s STFN have progressively transcended spatial barriers, fostering a synergistic and networked development pattern. More importantly, this study identifies that the key mechanism driving urban innovation within STFN lies in their ability to enhance urban capacity to capture and share the value embedded in innovation resources. We define this phenomenon as the “innovation resource value effects” of STFN. In addition, the innovation effects of network structures present obvious heterogeneous characteristics in terms of financial agglomeration density, regional absorptive capacity, and digital economy maturity, which may lead to regional innovation unbalanced development. These findings underscore the need for policymakers to prioritize the refinement of STFN as a strategic conduit for unlocking innovation resource value effects, strengthening urban network hubs, and fostering urban innovation balanced development.

在知识经济与技术进步加速融合的背景下，科技金融空间关联网络已成为创新资源配置与协作的变革性驱动力。本研究利用2012-2021年中国省级相关数据构建STFN。运用探索性时空数据分析方法，揭示科技金融及其网络的空间分布和动态演化。提取网络中心性来量化其结构特征，并运用Tobit模型系统地考察其对城市创新的影响。研究结果表明，中国科技创新产业正逐步超越空间壁垒，形成协同网络化的发展格局。更重要的是，本研究发现，创新型城市驱动城市创新的关键机制在于它们能够增强城市获取和分享创新资源所蕴含价值的能力。我们将这种现象定义为科技创新企业的“创新资源价值效应”。此外，网络结构的创新效应在金融集聚密度、区域吸收能力、数字经济成熟度等方面呈现明显的异质性特征，可能导致区域创新发展不平衡。这些研究结果强调，政策制定者需要优先考虑完善城市创新网络，将其作为释放创新资源价值效应、加强城市网络枢纽和促进城市创新平衡发展的战略渠道。

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引用次数: 0

How does high-level institutional openness promote enterprise internationalization? Empirical evidence from China’s pilot free trade zones 高水平的制度开放如何促进企业国际化？来自中国自由贸易试验区的经验证据

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.12.021

Yuetao Yang , Yongqin Guo , Yan Zhang

In the context of the new era, high-level institutional openness has become a crucial external driving force for China's external circulation development, and an important strategic support for enterprises to move towards internationalization. This article uses micro level data from 2011 to 2022 at the enterprise level and employs a dual machine learning model to empirically analyze the impact of high-level institutional opening-up policies, represented by China's pilot free trade zones, on the internationalization development of enterprises. The research results show that the policies of the pilot free trade zone have significantly promoted the level of international development of enterprises, manifested in positive performance in terms of internationalization depth, breadth, and whether internationalization has been initiated. There are significant differences in the impact of policies in pilot free trade zones on the international development of different types of enterprises, with private enterprises and manufacturing enterprises having more significant effects. Mechanism testing shows that the policies of the pilot free trade zone have effectively promoted the international development of enterprises by assisting them in improving their technological innovation level, optimizing ESG performance, alleviating financing constraints, and strengthening inward connections. This study has certain policy reference value and significance for further demonstrating the effectiveness of high-level institutional openness in promoting external circulation.

在新时代背景下，高水平的制度开放已成为中国对外流通发展的重要外部动力，成为企业走向国际化的重要战略支撑。本文采用企业层面2011 - 2022年微观层面数据，采用双机器学习模型，实证分析以中国自由贸易试验区为代表的高级别制度性开放政策对企业国际化发展的影响。研究结果表明，自贸试验区各项政策显著提升了企业国际化发展水平，在国际化深度、国际化广度、国际化是否启动等方面均表现为正向绩效。自由贸易试验区政策对不同类型企业国际化发展的影响存在显著差异，民营企业和制造业企业的影响更为显著。机制测试表明，自贸试验区政策在帮助企业提高技术创新水平、优化ESG绩效、缓解融资约束、加强内向联系等方面，有效促进了企业的国际化发展。本研究对于进一步论证高层次制度开放促进对外流通的有效性具有一定的政策参考价值和意义。

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引用次数: 0

When lawsuits speak louder: Litigation risk and corporate financing constraints 诉讼何时发声：诉讼风险与企业融资约束

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.12.020

Haiyan Ma , Xiaoning Ma , Xue Lei , Yu Jiang , Yuan Li

Lawsuits are often viewed as signals of operational problems, but their financial consequences may arise even when core business relationships remain stable. This study investigates how litigation risk affects firms’ financing conditions by focusing on its indirect revenue effects and the roles of investor sentiment and institutional context. Using panel data on Chinese A-share listed firms from 2007 to 2023 and employing fixed-effects and 2SLS models, the analysis finds that litigation risk tightens financing constraints mainly through revenue deterioration rather than structural changes in customer concentration. Investor sentiment shapes this relationship asymmetrically: optimistic sentiment dampens financing pressures, while pessimistic sentiment amplifies them. Investor attention weakens the negative effect by improving information transparency. Moreover, the impact is stronger in regions with more developed legal institutions. These results suggest that legal disputes influence financing less through direct operational disruption and more through how markets interpret legal signals, offering new insights into the interaction between legal events and financial markets.

诉讼通常被视为运营问题的信号，但即使在核心业务关系保持稳定的情况下，其财务后果也可能出现。本研究通过关注诉讼风险的间接收益效应以及投资者情绪和制度背景的作用，探讨了诉讼风险如何影响企业的融资状况。利用2007 - 2023年中国a股上市公司的面板数据，运用固定效应和2SLS模型分析发现，诉讼风险收紧融资约束主要是通过营收恶化而非客户集中度的结构性变化。投资者情绪不对称地塑造了这种关系：乐观情绪抑制了融资压力，而悲观情绪放大了融资压力。投资者关注通过提高信息透明度来减弱负面效应。此外，在法律制度更发达的地区，这种影响更大。这些结果表明，法律纠纷对融资的影响较少是通过直接的业务中断，更多的是通过市场如何解释法律信号，这为法律事件与金融市场之间的相互作用提供了新的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Actions according with words? Environmental regulation and pollutant emissions 言行一致？环境监管和污染物排放

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.12.022

Yun Bai , Xin’ai Zhang , Siyun Wang , Minghui Ma

The construction of a scientific and efficient ecological and environmental governance mechanism is a key pathway to achieving the coordinated unity of economic growth and sustainable development. Using the pollutant emission permit policy as a quasi-natural experiment, this study systematically evaluates the impact of market-based environmental regulation on pollutant emissions. The results show that market-based regulation significantly reduces pollutant emissions, reflecting an individual effect. At the same time, by raising environmental thresholds, it accelerates the exit of low-productivity firms and thereby compels firms to pursue green transformation, reflecting a market allocation effect. In addition, market-based regulation strengthens information disclosure, reduces adverse selection risks, and helps firms gain greater access to credit, while their competitiveness in non-green sectors remains unaffected. Further analysis indicates that market-based environmental regulation effectively promotes substantive green transformation, whereas government-led regulation tends to trigger greenwashing behaviors and encourages firms to relocate to regions with lower environmental costs. At the policy level, different types of regulation are complementary, with government-led measures delivering rapid results in situations of severe pollution, while market-based regulation fosters long-term, stable emission reductions and green transformation through incentives for green innovation and optimized capital allocation.

构建科学高效的生态环境治理机制是实现经济增长与可持续发展协调统一的重要途径。本文以污染物排放许可政策为准自然实验，系统评价了市场化环境规制对污染物排放的影响。结果表明，市场化调控显著降低了污染物排放，反映了个体效应。同时，通过提高环境门槛，加速了低生产率企业的退出，从而迫使企业进行绿色转型，体现了市场配置效应。此外，基于市场的监管加强了信息披露，降低了逆向选择风险，并帮助企业获得更多的信贷，同时它们在非绿色部门的竞争力不受影响。进一步分析表明，基于市场的环境规制有效地促进了实质性的绿色转型，而政府主导的环境规制则容易引发“漂绿”行为，并促使企业向环境成本较低的地区迁移。在政策层面，不同类型的监管是相辅相成的，在严重污染的情况下，政府主导的措施能迅速见效，而市场监管通过激励绿色创新和优化资本配置，促进长期稳定的减排和绿色转型。

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引用次数: 0

Duopolistic blockchain adoption strategies with risky green R&D 具有风险绿色研发的双寡头区块链采用策略

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.12.012

Xiaoyang Lei, Donghui Yang

Whereas firms have increasingly applied blockchain to facilitate consumers accurately evaluating the green R&D of their products, the related literature is still rare, especially under the consideration of R&D risk. This article examines the blockchain adoption strategies of duopolistic firms that engage in green R&D with R&D risk through a game-theoretic model. It first indicates that due to the differentiation effect, firms may obtain lower expected profits as the R&D success probability increases under all blockchain adoption strategies. Second, it confirms that firms' blockchain adoption strategies are jointly influenced by both R&D risk and unit blockchain adoption cost. Interestingly, one firm elects blockchain while the other firm abandons for the low R&D success probability and the moderate adoption cost. Finally, it finds that more blockchain adoption does not always benefit consumers due to the high charged prices. These findings provide fresh economic implications for competitive firms on their green practices.

虽然企业越来越多地使用区块链来帮助消费者准确评估其产品的绿色研发，但相关文献仍然很少，特别是在考虑研发风险的情况下。本文通过博弈论模型考察了具有研发风险的双寡头企业绿色研发的区块链采用策略。首先，由于差异化效应，在所有区块链采用策略下，随着研发成功概率的增加，企业获得的预期利润可能会降低。其次，研究证实了企业的bb1采用策略受到研发风险和单位bb1采用成本的共同影响。有趣的是，一家企业选择b区块链，而另一家企业则因为研发成功概率低、采用成本适中而放弃b区块链。最后，研究发现，由于收费高昂，更多的bb0采用并不总是对消费者有利。这些发现为竞争企业的绿色实践提供了新的经济启示。

引用次数: 0