首页 > 最新文献

Ocean & Coastal Management最新文献

英文 中文
Exploring decadal beach profile dynamics in response to nourishment strategies under accelerated sea level rise 探索海平面加速上升条件下十年期海滩剖面动态变化对滋养战略的影响
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107477
Tosca Kettler , Matthieu de Schipper , Arjen Luijendijk
Accelerated sea level rise prompts the upscaling of nourishment strategies, either through larger individual nourishment volumes or increased frequency of implementation. In such strategies, the nourished sand may lack time to effectively redistribute in the designated timeframe, leading to significant deformation of the profile over multiple nourishment cycles. This study quantifies subsequent effects, focusing on profile steepening, nourishment lifetimes, and the feasibility of operational objectives. We simulated two common nourishment strategies at a Dutch case study location using the cross-shore morphological model Crocodile over a 50-year timespan under sea level rise rates of 2–32 mm/year. The choice of strategy led to a variation of up to 75% in the total amount of sand used. Our results show increasing profile deformation with nourishment volume applied and duration of the nourishment strategy, with sand accumulating in the nourished section and little dissipation to the lower shoreface. The consequent profile steepening leads to reduced nourishment lifetimes by up to 30%. Additionally, under high sea level rise rates, more erosive coasts experience a reduction in nourishment lifetimes to annual intervals, while less erosive areas require up to four times more sand than currently needed. These findings illustrate key dilemmas in the formulation of future nourishment strategies and highlight the importance of optimizing these strategies to account for sea level rise.
海平面上升速度加快,促使通过扩大单个滋养量或增加实施频率来扩大滋养战略的规模。在这些策略中,被滋养的沙子可能没有时间在指定时间内有效地重新分布,从而导致剖面在多个滋养周期内发生显著变形。本研究对后续影响进行了量化,重点关注剖面陡化、滋养寿命以及操作目标的可行性。我们使用跨岸形态模型 Crocodile 在荷兰案例研究地点模拟了两种常见的滋养策略,在海平面上升率为 2-32 毫米/年的情况下,时间跨度为 50 年。策略的选择会导致用砂总量的变化,变化幅度可达 75%。我们的研究结果表明,剖面变形随着使用的滋养量和滋养策略持续时间的增加而增大,沙子在滋养段堆积,几乎没有消散到较低的岸面。随之而来的剖面陡峭化导致滋养寿命缩短达 30%。此外,在海平面上升率较高的情况下,侵蚀性较强的海岸的滋养寿命会缩短到每年一次,而侵蚀性较弱的地区所需的沙量是目前所需的四倍。这些研究结果说明了制定未来滋养战略的关键困境,并强调了优化这些战略以考虑海平面上升的重要性。
{"title":"Exploring decadal beach profile dynamics in response to nourishment strategies under accelerated sea level rise","authors":"Tosca Kettler ,&nbsp;Matthieu de Schipper ,&nbsp;Arjen Luijendijk","doi":"10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107477","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107477","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accelerated sea level rise prompts the upscaling of nourishment strategies, either through larger individual nourishment volumes or increased frequency of implementation. In such strategies, the nourished sand may lack time to effectively redistribute in the designated timeframe, leading to significant deformation of the profile over multiple nourishment cycles. This study quantifies subsequent effects, focusing on profile steepening, nourishment lifetimes, and the feasibility of operational objectives. We simulated two common nourishment strategies at a Dutch case study location using the cross-shore morphological model Crocodile over a 50-year timespan under sea level rise rates of 2–32 mm/year. The choice of strategy led to a variation of up to 75% in the total amount of sand used. Our results show increasing profile deformation with nourishment volume applied and duration of the nourishment strategy, with sand accumulating in the nourished section and little dissipation to the lower shoreface. The consequent profile steepening leads to reduced nourishment lifetimes by up to 30%. Additionally, under high sea level rise rates, more erosive coasts experience a reduction in nourishment lifetimes to annual intervals, while less erosive areas require up to four times more sand than currently needed. These findings illustrate key dilemmas in the formulation of future nourishment strategies and highlight the importance of optimizing these strategies to account for sea level rise.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54698,"journal":{"name":"Ocean & Coastal Management","volume":"260 ","pages":"Article 107477"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142720228","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Nature-based solution for coastal erosion protection in the muddy coasts: Empirical perceptibility from the Upper Gulf of Thailand 基于自然的泥泞海岸侵蚀防护解决方案:泰国上海湾的经验感知
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107488
Afsana Yasmeen, Nathsuda Pumijumnong, Noppol Arunrat, Paramita Punwong, Sukanya Sereenonchai, Uthai Chareonwong
Coastal erosion presents a significant challenge for muddy coasts worldwide. Aggravated by climate change and local factors, protecting against erosion has proven to be a complex task. The delicate sedimentary composition and the interplay of natural forces and human intervention render these muddy coasts particularly vulnerable. The choice between traditional engineering solutions and nature-based approaches is often dichotomous and entails risks for the coastline, ecology, livelihoods, and coastal management. Hence, comprehensive research on tangible, environment-friendly protection strategies with a holistic approach to muddy coastal contexts is scanty. This article aims to critically reveal the hegemonic situation around coastal erosion and protection challenges, and perceptible nature-based modalities for erosion protection in the distinctive and socio-ecologically contested atypical peri-urban muddy coastal context of the upper Gulf of Thailand. A mixed-methods approach has been applied to gain an in-depth understanding. Empirical research findings critically divulged that coastal erosion protection is extremely challenging due to the vulnerable situation espoused by the interplay of exogenous and endogenous factors in the community, feeble governance, and leadership crises. The muddy coasts require holistic considerations for a plausible and dynamic nature-based erosion protection modality that is environment-friendly, science-based, long-term, people-oriented, knowledge-driven, and based on collaborative adaptive coastal management approaches. Nature-based solutions are crucial to ensure coastal stability, management, and climate-resilient development in the fragile muddy coasts in Thailand and elsewhere in similar contexts.
海岸侵蚀是全世界泥泞海岸面临的重大挑战。由于气候变化和当地因素的加剧,防止侵蚀已被证明是一项复杂的任务。微妙的沉积构成以及自然力量和人为干预的相互作用,使得这些泥质海岸特别脆弱。在传统的工程解决方案和基于自然的方法之间,选择往往是二分法,对海岸线、生态、生计和海岸管理都有风险。因此,针对泥泞海岸环境的有形、环境友好型综合保护战略的全面研究还很少。本文旨在批判性地揭示围绕海岸侵蚀和保护挑战的霸权状况,以及在泰国湾上游独特的、具有社会生态争议的非典型城市周边泥泞海岸环境中可感知的基于自然的侵蚀保护模式。研究采用了混合方法来深入了解情况。实证研究结果批判性地揭示了海岸侵蚀保护工作极具挑战性,因为社区的外生和内生因素相互作用、治理不力和领导危机导致了脆弱的局面。泥泞的海岸需要全盘考虑,采取一种合理的、动态的、以自然为基础的侵蚀保护模式,这种模式应是环境友好的、以科学为基础的、长期的、以人为本的、以知识为驱动力的,并以协作性的适应性海岸管理方法为基础。以自然为基础的解决方案对于确保泰国和其他地区脆弱的泥泞海岸的海岸稳定、管理和抵御气候变化的发展至关重要。
{"title":"Nature-based solution for coastal erosion protection in the muddy coasts: Empirical perceptibility from the Upper Gulf of Thailand","authors":"Afsana Yasmeen,&nbsp;Nathsuda Pumijumnong,&nbsp;Noppol Arunrat,&nbsp;Paramita Punwong,&nbsp;Sukanya Sereenonchai,&nbsp;Uthai Chareonwong","doi":"10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107488","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107488","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Coastal erosion presents a significant challenge for muddy coasts worldwide. Aggravated by climate change and local factors, protecting against erosion has proven to be a complex task. The delicate sedimentary composition and the interplay of natural forces and human intervention render these muddy coasts particularly vulnerable. The choice between traditional engineering solutions and nature-based approaches is often dichotomous and entails risks for the coastline, ecology, livelihoods, and coastal management. Hence, comprehensive research on tangible, environment-friendly protection strategies with a holistic approach to muddy coastal contexts is scanty. This article aims to critically reveal the hegemonic situation around coastal erosion and protection challenges, and perceptible nature-based modalities for erosion protection in the distinctive and socio-ecologically contested atypical peri-urban muddy coastal context of the upper Gulf of Thailand. A mixed-methods approach has been applied to gain an in-depth understanding. Empirical research findings critically divulged that coastal erosion protection is extremely challenging due to the vulnerable situation espoused by the interplay of exogenous and endogenous factors in the community, feeble governance, and leadership crises. The muddy coasts require holistic considerations for a plausible and dynamic nature-based erosion protection modality that is environment-friendly, science-based, long-term, people-oriented, knowledge-driven, and based on collaborative adaptive coastal management approaches. Nature-based solutions are crucial to ensure coastal stability, management, and climate-resilient development in the fragile muddy coasts in Thailand and elsewhere in similar contexts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54698,"journal":{"name":"Ocean & Coastal Management","volume":"259 ","pages":"Article 107488"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142707331","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Dual strategies-based resilience enhancement in a bulk cargo port under dynamic machinery failure scenarios with reinforcement learning 基于强化学习的动态机械故障情景下散货港口弹性增强的双重策略
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107484
Yaqiong Lv , Yaqi Gao , Jialun Liu
The operational efficiency and resilience of bulk cargo terminals are crucial. They are not only a solid support for core areas such as energy supply, food security, and manufacturing, but also shoulder the heavy responsibility of transporting key materials such as coal, crude oil, grains, and minerals, ensuring the smooth and unobstructed operation of the global economy. This study focuses on how to enhance the resilience of bulk cargo terminals in the face of mechanical failures. Given the limitations of traditional coping strategies and mathematical modeling in dealing with dynamic uncertainties in port operations, we innovatively propose a dual strategy approach. This method cleverly combines dynamic berth replanning with mechanical equipment maintenance, and utilizes cutting-edge techniques of reinforcement learning (RL) for optimization. By developing an intelligent decision-making framework that can intelligently integrate the above strategies, providing a breakthrough solution for reducing downtime and enhancing terminal resilience. Through a case study of a specific bulk cargo port, we have verified the effectiveness of this strategy and revealed its enormous potential in significantly improving the operational efficiency of bulk cargo terminals. This study not only brings new dimensions of thinking to the field of port operations and logistics, but also emphasizes the crucial role of RL in developing flexible and resilient operational strategies to address the complex and ever-changing challenges of modern trade environments.
散货码头的运营效率和应变能力至关重要。它们不仅是能源供应、食品安全和制造业等核心领域的坚实后盾,还肩负着运输煤炭、原油、谷物和矿物等关键材料的重任,确保全球经济平稳无阻地运行。本研究的重点是如何提高散货码头在面对机械故障时的应变能力。鉴于传统应对策略和数学模型在处理港口运营动态不确定性方面的局限性,我们创新性地提出了一种双重策略方法。这种方法巧妙地将动态泊位重新规划与机械设备维护相结合,并利用强化学习(RL)的前沿技术进行优化。通过开发一个智能决策框架,该框架可以智能地整合上述策略,为减少停机时间和提高码头恢复能力提供了一个突破性的解决方案。通过对一个特定散货港口的案例研究,我们验证了这一策略的有效性,并揭示了其在显著提高散货码头运营效率方面的巨大潜力。这项研究不仅为港口运营和物流领域带来了新的思维维度,还强调了区域联络在制定灵活、弹性的运营战略,以应对现代贸易环境中复杂多变的挑战方面所发挥的关键作用。
{"title":"Dual strategies-based resilience enhancement in a bulk cargo port under dynamic machinery failure scenarios with reinforcement learning","authors":"Yaqiong Lv ,&nbsp;Yaqi Gao ,&nbsp;Jialun Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107484","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107484","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The operational efficiency and resilience of bulk cargo terminals are crucial. They are not only a solid support for core areas such as energy supply, food security, and manufacturing, but also shoulder the heavy responsibility of transporting key materials such as coal, crude oil, grains, and minerals, ensuring the smooth and unobstructed operation of the global economy. This study focuses on how to enhance the resilience of bulk cargo terminals in the face of mechanical failures. Given the limitations of traditional coping strategies and mathematical modeling in dealing with dynamic uncertainties in port operations, we innovatively propose a dual strategy approach. This method cleverly combines dynamic berth replanning with mechanical equipment maintenance, and utilizes cutting-edge techniques of reinforcement learning (RL) for optimization. By developing an intelligent decision-making framework that can intelligently integrate the above strategies, providing a breakthrough solution for reducing downtime and enhancing terminal resilience. Through a case study of a specific bulk cargo port, we have verified the effectiveness of this strategy and revealed its enormous potential in significantly improving the operational efficiency of bulk cargo terminals. This study not only brings new dimensions of thinking to the field of port operations and logistics, but also emphasizes the crucial role of RL in developing flexible and resilient operational strategies to address the complex and ever-changing challenges of modern trade environments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54698,"journal":{"name":"Ocean & Coastal Management","volume":"260 ","pages":"Article 107484"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142720227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Hotspot analysis of global piracy and armed robbery incidents at sea: A decadal review of regional vulnerabilities and security strategies 全球海盗和海上武装抢劫事件热点分析:区域脆弱性和安全战略十年审查
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107480
Neslihan Küçük , Serdar Yildiz , Özkan Uğurlu , Jin Wang
Maritime piracy (MP) and armed robbery at sea (ARS) pose significant threats to global maritime security, affecting trade and economic stability. These incidents, whether successful or not, can lead to loss of life, and long-lasting mental and psychological health impacts on ship crews. This study utilizes the spatial density analysis via the Geographic Information System to explore the global distribution of MP and ARS incidents from 2010 to 2021. Analysing 3241 incidents that occurred across the globe over two distinct periods, 2010–2015 and 2016–2021, the study has identified and visualized hotspot areas globally, revealing the geographic patterns with an aim to assist the strategic mitigation of these threats. Regional analyses indicate a shift in piracy activities; Southeast Asia shows a decrease in attacks (halved) in the Straits of Malacca coupled with persistent threats in the Singapore Strait. Conversely, East Africa has seen a reduction in piracy due to effective international maritime patrols and legal frameworks, although the area remains volatile due to persistent socio-economic and political challenges. The findings demonstrate that geopolitical instability, legal gaps, and economic disparities significantly contribute to MP and ARS. The study advocates for sustained international cooperation, enhanced legal measures, and continuous monitoring to effectively combat these threats. Future research could benefit from a more detailed temporal analysis, using different methodological approaches (e.g., incorporating time-series analysis) to capture seasonal or short-term variations in incident occurrences. This could provide additional insights into the dynamics of piracy and armed robbery incidents and inform policy and security strategy adjustments.
海盗(MP)和海上武装抢劫(ARS)对全球海上安全构成重大威胁,影响贸易和经济稳定。这些事件无论成功与否,都可能导致生命损失,并对船员的精神和心理健康造成长期影响。本研究利用地理信息系统的空间密度分析,探讨了 2010 年至 2021 年期间 MP 和 ARS 事件的全球分布情况。通过对 2010-2015 年和 2016-2021 年两个不同时期全球发生的 3241 起事件进行分析,本研究确定了全球热点地区并将其可视化,揭示了地理模式,旨在协助从战略上缓解这些威胁。区域分析显示海盗活动发生了变化;东南亚显示马六甲海峡的袭击有所减少(减半),但新加坡海峡的威胁持续存在。与此相反,由于有效的国际海上巡逻和法律框架,东非的海盗活动有所减少,但由于持续的社会经济和政治挑战,该地区仍然动荡不安。研究结果表明,地缘政治的不稳定性、法律空白和经济差距在很大程度上助长了《蒙特利尔议定书》和《反海盗战略》。本研究主张开展持续的国际合作、加强法律措施和持续监测,以有效打击这些威胁。采用不同的方法论(如结合时间序列分析)进行更详细的时间分析,以捕捉事件发生的季节性或短期变化,对今后的研究大有裨益。这将为了解海盗和持械抢劫事件的动态提供更多信息,并为政策和安全战略调整提供依据。
{"title":"Hotspot analysis of global piracy and armed robbery incidents at sea: A decadal review of regional vulnerabilities and security strategies","authors":"Neslihan Küçük ,&nbsp;Serdar Yildiz ,&nbsp;Özkan Uğurlu ,&nbsp;Jin Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107480","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107480","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Maritime piracy (MP) and armed robbery at sea (ARS) pose significant threats to global maritime security, affecting trade and economic stability. These incidents, whether successful or not, can lead to loss of life, and long-lasting mental and psychological health impacts on ship crews. This study utilizes the spatial density analysis via the Geographic Information System to explore the global distribution of MP and ARS incidents from 2010 to 2021. Analysing 3241 incidents that occurred across the globe over two distinct periods, 2010–2015 and 2016–2021, the study has identified and visualized hotspot areas globally, revealing the geographic patterns with an aim to assist the strategic mitigation of these threats. Regional analyses indicate a shift in piracy activities; Southeast Asia shows a decrease in attacks (halved) in the Straits of Malacca coupled with persistent threats in the Singapore Strait. Conversely, East Africa has seen a reduction in piracy due to effective international maritime patrols and legal frameworks, although the area remains volatile due to persistent socio-economic and political challenges. The findings demonstrate that geopolitical instability, legal gaps, and economic disparities significantly contribute to MP and ARS. The study advocates for sustained international cooperation, enhanced legal measures, and continuous monitoring to effectively combat these threats. Future research could benefit from a more detailed temporal analysis, using different methodological approaches (e.g., incorporating time-series analysis) to capture seasonal or short-term variations in incident occurrences. This could provide additional insights into the dynamics of piracy and armed robbery incidents and inform policy and security strategy adjustments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54698,"journal":{"name":"Ocean & Coastal Management","volume":"260 ","pages":"Article 107480"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142720229","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A data-driven bayesian network model for risk influencing factors quantification based on global maritime accident database 基于全球海事事故数据库的风险影响因素量化数据驱动贝叶斯网络模型
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107473
Haiyang Jiang , Jinfen Zhang , Chengpeng Wan , Mingyang Zhang , C. Guedes Soares
The Maritime transportation system is exposed to various risks, that can lead to accidents and sometimes resulting in severe economic losses and fatalities. The accident database of maritime accidents contains valuable knowledge about the causes of accidents. An in-deepth understanding of the impact of risk influencing factors (RIFs) on maritime accidents based on historical data helps to prevent accidents from happening in the future. Using a large dataset of 55469 maritime accidents from 2002 to 2022, a Bayesian network (BN) model is formulated to investigate how RIFs affect maritime accidents. The interdependencies between the RIFs are modelled using a Tree Augmented Network (TAN) with sensitivity analysis. The Most Probable Explanations (MPEs) for each type of accident are also identified. The results indicate that older, smaller, non-convenient flagships in the North Atlantic zone have a higher probability of accidents. The ranking of the most important RIFs for accident types is location, ship type, ship age, gross tonnage (GT), and deadweight tonnage (DWT). The effect of different RIFs on different types of maritime accidents is also examined. Ship type is the most important RIF for hull damage, fire or explosion, and contact accidents. Among the different ship types, Cargo ships are at the most significant risk of grounding while fishing ships exhibit the highest risk of hull damage, fire or explosion, and foundering. Age is the most significant RIF for foundering, while ship location is the most significant RIF for machinery damage, grounding, and collision accidents. Based on the above findings, recommendations for reducing maritime risk and promoting sustainable development and conservation of ocean and coastal areas are discussed in detail.
海上运输系统面临着各种风险,这些风险可能导致事故的发生,有时会造成严重的经济损失和人员伤亡。海运事故数据库包含有关事故原因的宝贵知识。根据历史数据深入了解风险影响因素(RIFs)对海事事故的影响有助于预防未来事故的发生。利用 2002 至 2022 年间 55469 起海事事故的大型数据集,建立了贝叶斯网络(BN)模型,以研究 RIF 如何影响海事事故。利用树状增强网络(TAN)和敏感性分析对 RIF 之间的相互依存关系进行建模。还确定了每类事故的最可能解释(MPE)。结果表明,在北大西洋区域,较老、较小、不方便的旗舰发生事故的概率较高。对事故类型最重要的 RIF 排序是地点、船型、船龄、总吨位 (GT) 和载重吨位 (DWT)。此外,还研究了不同 RIF 对不同类型海事事故的影响。对于船体损坏、火灾或爆炸以及接触事故而言,船舶类型是最重要的 RIF。在不同类型的船舶中,货船搁浅的风险最大,而渔船发生船体损坏、火灾或爆炸以及沉没的风险最高。船龄是造成沉没的最重要的风险影响因素,而船舶位置则是造成机械损坏、搁浅和碰撞事故的最重要的风险影响因素。在上述研究结果的基础上,详细讨论了降低海洋风险、促进海洋和沿海地区可持续发展和保护的建议。
{"title":"A data-driven bayesian network model for risk influencing factors quantification based on global maritime accident database","authors":"Haiyang Jiang ,&nbsp;Jinfen Zhang ,&nbsp;Chengpeng Wan ,&nbsp;Mingyang Zhang ,&nbsp;C. Guedes Soares","doi":"10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107473","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107473","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Maritime transportation system is exposed to various risks, that can lead to accidents and sometimes resulting in severe economic losses and fatalities. The accident database of maritime accidents contains valuable knowledge about the causes of accidents. An in-deepth understanding of the impact of risk influencing factors (RIFs) on maritime accidents based on historical data helps to prevent accidents from happening in the future. Using a large dataset of 55469 maritime accidents from 2002 to 2022, a Bayesian network (BN) model is formulated to investigate how RIFs affect maritime accidents. The interdependencies between the RIFs are modelled using a Tree Augmented Network (TAN) with sensitivity analysis. The Most Probable Explanations (MPEs) for each type of accident are also identified. The results indicate that older, smaller, non-convenient flagships in the North Atlantic zone have a higher probability of accidents. The ranking of the most important RIFs for accident types is location, ship type, ship age, gross tonnage (GT), and deadweight tonnage (DWT). The effect of different RIFs on different types of maritime accidents is also examined. Ship type is the most important RIF for hull damage, fire or explosion, and contact accidents. Among the different ship types, Cargo ships are at the most significant risk of grounding while fishing ships exhibit the highest risk of hull damage, fire or explosion, and foundering. Age is the most significant RIF for foundering, while ship location is the most significant RIF for machinery damage, grounding, and collision accidents. Based on the above findings, recommendations for reducing maritime risk and promoting sustainable development and conservation of ocean and coastal areas are discussed in detail.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54698,"journal":{"name":"Ocean & Coastal Management","volume":"259 ","pages":"Article 107473"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142707327","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Survival alternatives and environmental interactions of Thalassiosira rotula across three trophic levels 轮虫在三个营养级中的生存选择和环境相互作用
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-11-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107478
Yongqi Tang, Xueqiang Lu
Thalassiosira rotula, a ubiquitous diatom in coastal seas, exhibits different bloom potentials in response to distinct trophic levels, complicating the prevention and management of its blooms. However, the reproductive mechanisms of T. rotula under various trophic levels and their response to environmental changes are relatively understudied within current scholarly discourse. This study examined the population dynamics of T. rotula, and analyzed the interactions of environmental factors, through a harmful algal bloom simulation experiment within a trophic gradient system. The results indicated that T. rotula at oligotrophic levels primarily used nutrients for resting spore formation, while at eutrophic and mesotrophic levels, it utilized nutrients for both vegetative cell proliferation and resting spore formation. Eliminating resting spores and disturbing alternatives of survival strategies could mitigate T. rotula blooms. Different trophic levels altered T. rotula's absorption threshold for DIP but not for DIN. The reintroducing of nitrogen into the low N:P ratio environments caused by excess nitrogen consumption could trigger T. rotula blooms. Thus, focusing on the reintroducing of nitrogen is crucial when managing the re-blooms of T. rotula in seawater. Trophic levels indirectly affected T. rotula's reactive silicate absorption by influencing its growth, physiology, and cell cycle. T. rotula blooms could be controlled by intervening in the physiological and ecological traits of this algae. Nutrient restriction significantly impacted T. rotula's photosynthetic efficiency, affecting water pH and dissolved oxygen levels. Both nitrogen and phosphorus deficiencies promoted resting spore formation under sufficient reactive silicate, restricted to specific-sized vegetative cells before the decay phase. The findings may be insightful for comprehending T. rotula's survival strategies in response to fluctuations in trophic levels and devising effective measures to mitigate harmful algal blooms.
轮虫(Thalassiosira rotula)是一种在近海中无处不在的硅藻,在不同的营养级下表现出不同的藻华潜能,使其藻华的预防和管理变得更加复杂。然而,目前学术界对轮虫在不同营养级下的繁殖机制及其对环境变化的响应研究相对不足。本研究通过营养梯度系统中的有害藻华模拟实验,研究了轮虫的种群动态,并分析了环境因素的相互作用。结果表明,在低营养水平下,轮虫主要利用营养物质形成静止孢子,而在富营养和中营养水平下,轮虫利用营养物质进行无性细胞增殖和静止孢子的形成。消除静止孢子和干扰生存策略的替代方案可减轻轮虫的繁殖。不同的营养水平会改变轮虫对 DIP 的吸收阈值,但不会改变对 DIN 的吸收阈值。在氮消耗过多导致氮磷比过低的环境中重新引入氮元素,可能会引发轮枝菌大量繁殖。因此,在管理海水中轮虫的再绽放时,关注氮的再引入至关重要。营养级通过影响轮枝藻的生长、生理和细胞周期,间接影响其对活性硅酸盐的吸收。可以通过干预轮枝藻的生理和生态特性来控制轮枝藻的繁殖。养分限制严重影响了轮叶藻的光合效率,影响了水的 pH 值和溶解氧水平。氮和磷的缺乏都会在充足的活性硅酸盐条件下促进静止孢子的形成,但仅限于腐生期前特定大小的无性细胞。这些发现可能有助于理解轮虫在营养级波动中的生存策略,并制定有效措施来缓解有害藻类的大量繁殖。
{"title":"Survival alternatives and environmental interactions of Thalassiosira rotula across three trophic levels","authors":"Yongqi Tang,&nbsp;Xueqiang Lu","doi":"10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107478","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107478","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><em>Thalassiosira rotula</em>, a ubiquitous diatom in coastal seas, exhibits different bloom potentials in response to distinct trophic levels, complicating the prevention and management of its blooms. However, the reproductive mechanisms of <em>T. rotula</em> under various trophic levels and their response to environmental changes are relatively understudied within current scholarly discourse. This study examined the population dynamics of <em>T. rotula</em>, and analyzed the interactions of environmental factors, through a harmful algal bloom simulation experiment within a trophic gradient system. The results indicated that <em>T. rotula</em> at oligotrophic levels primarily used nutrients for resting spore formation, while at eutrophic and mesotrophic levels, it utilized nutrients for both vegetative cell proliferation and resting spore formation. Eliminating resting spores and disturbing alternatives of survival strategies could mitigate <em>T. rotula</em> blooms. Different trophic levels altered <em>T. rotula</em>'s absorption threshold for DIP but not for DIN. The reintroducing of nitrogen into the low N:P ratio environments caused by excess nitrogen consumption could trigger <em>T. rotula</em> blooms. Thus, focusing on the reintroducing of nitrogen is crucial when managing the re-blooms of <em>T. rotula</em> in seawater. Trophic levels indirectly affected <em>T. rotula</em>'s reactive silicate absorption by influencing its growth, physiology, and cell cycle. <em>T. rotula</em> blooms could be controlled by intervening in the physiological and ecological traits of this algae. Nutrient restriction significantly impacted <em>T. rotula</em>'s photosynthetic efficiency, affecting water pH and dissolved oxygen levels. Both nitrogen and phosphorus deficiencies promoted resting spore formation under sufficient reactive silicate, restricted to specific-sized vegetative cells before the decay phase. The findings may be insightful for comprehending <em>T. rotula</em>'s survival strategies in response to fluctuations in trophic levels and devising effective measures to mitigate harmful algal blooms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54698,"journal":{"name":"Ocean & Coastal Management","volume":"259 ","pages":"Article 107478"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142707328","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Port governance and sustainable development: The impact of port smartization on port carbon emission efficiency 港口治理与可持续发展:港口智能化对港口碳排放效率的影响
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-11-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107485
Chaohui Zhang , Yuxue Yang , Nianxin Wang
Considering the growing volume of seaborne trade worldwide, most ports need smart policies to address high carbon emissions. As a major shipping nation, China is committed to reducing port carbon emissions. China recently introduced a series of smartization policies to accelerate the construction of smart ports, but their effectiveness in energy saving and emission reduction is unclear. Taking 39 major ports in China as research subjects, this study uses the super-efficiency SBM model to measure carbon emissions and the generalized difference-in-differences method to deeply explore the impact of port smartization policies on port carbon emission efficiency. Results indicate that these policies have significantly improved the carbon emission efficiency of ports, a conclusion validated through multiple robustness tests. Heterogeneity analyses show that ports in coastal areas, and in cities with larger populations or moderate economic development, are more significantly affected by port smartization initiatives. Mechanism analysis suggests that the number of port berths, the length of wharves, and container throughput are important channels through which smart port policies influence carbon emission efficiency. This research enriches carbon emission efficiency literature, offers insights for developing countries on reducing emissions and achieving carbon neutrality, and provides a basis for China's smart port construction.
考虑到全球海运贸易量的不断增长,大多数港口都需要明智的政策来解决高碳排放问题。作为航运大国,中国一直致力于减少港口碳排放。近期,中国出台了一系列智能化政策,加快推进智能港口建设,但其节能减排效果并不明显。本研究以中国 39 个主要港口为研究对象,采用超效率 SBM 模型测算碳排放,并运用广义差分法深入探讨港口智能化政策对港口碳排放效率的影响。结果表明,这些政策极大地提高了港口的碳排放效率,这一结论通过多重稳健性检验得到了验证。异质性分析表明,沿海地区、人口较多或经济发展中等的城市的港口受港口智能化措施的影响更大。机制分析表明,港口泊位数量、码头长度和集装箱吞吐量是智能港口政策影响碳排放效率的重要渠道。这项研究丰富了碳排放效率方面的文献,为发展中国家减少碳排放、实现碳中和提供了启示,也为中国的智慧港口建设提供了依据。
{"title":"Port governance and sustainable development: The impact of port smartization on port carbon emission efficiency","authors":"Chaohui Zhang ,&nbsp;Yuxue Yang ,&nbsp;Nianxin Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107485","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107485","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Considering the growing volume of seaborne trade worldwide, most ports need smart policies to address high carbon emissions. As a major shipping nation, China is committed to reducing port carbon emissions. China recently introduced a series of smartization policies to accelerate the construction of smart ports, but their effectiveness in energy saving and emission reduction is unclear. Taking 39 major ports in China as research subjects, this study uses the super-efficiency SBM model to measure carbon emissions and the generalized difference-in-differences method to deeply explore the impact of port smartization policies on port carbon emission efficiency. Results indicate that these policies have significantly improved the carbon emission efficiency of ports, a conclusion validated through multiple robustness tests. Heterogeneity analyses show that ports in coastal areas, and in cities with larger populations or moderate economic development, are more significantly affected by port smartization initiatives. Mechanism analysis suggests that the number of port berths, the length of wharves, and container throughput are important channels through which smart port policies influence carbon emission efficiency. This research enriches carbon emission efficiency literature, offers insights for developing countries on reducing emissions and achieving carbon neutrality, and provides a basis for China's smart port construction.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54698,"journal":{"name":"Ocean & Coastal Management","volume":"259 ","pages":"Article 107485"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142707330","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Predicting the cumulative effects of multiple stressors on shellfish ecosystem service potential 预测多种压力因素对贝类生态系统服务潜力的累积效应
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-11-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107486
Elizabeth Harrison , Fabrice Stephenson , Vera Rullens , Conrad Pilditch , Joanne Ellis
Understanding and anticipating the effects of interacting stressors is critical for the effective management of marine ecosystems and the essential ecosystem services (ES) they provide. A key challenge in integrating cumulative effects and their impacts on ES delivery into spatial tools is to move beyond simple additive stressor interactions in the face of data scarcity, ecosystem complexity and uncertainty. Here we present a novel methodological approach with which to assess the cumulative effects of multiple stressors on the ES potential provided by two estuarine infaunal bivalves (Austrovenus stutchburyi and Paphies australis) which we illustrate in a case study within the Tauranga Harbour, New Zealand. We firstly assess the shift in density distribution and probability of occurrence in response to increasing sediment mud content, harvesting pressure and sea level rise. The single and cumulative effects of these stressors were simulated through species distribution models (SDM). Principle based models were then used to assess the translation of altered environmental conditions and shellfish abundance on the ES potential for food provision, water quality regulation, nitrogen removal and sediment stabilisation. The simulation of single and cumulative stressors at non-lethal levels were found to cause substantial changes to bivalve density and their distribution but could have both positive and negative impacts on ES potential due to shifts in optimal environmental conditions. Increasing the number of stressors delivered a worse outcome in terms of loss of density, particularly for Austrovenus with harvesting pressure being a common driver of decline in high density areas. This effect was similarly reflected in the ES predictions although there were nuances between the species related to habitat association and sensitivity to stressors. For example, the increase of sea level rise and mud had a greater negative impact on Austrovenus. Stressor effects varied spatially with some areas more heavily impacted than others and indicated an overall reduction of high ES areas whilst increasing areas of medium ES potential. This study introduces efficient and accessible means for integrating ES into cumulative effects assessments, the perspective from which renders the results more digestible for management. Using an interactive modelling approach rather than simple additive methods, it provides more robust information, aiding the prevention of ecological surprises. These quantitative spatial predictions will facilitate the identification of vulnerable areas, priority stressors and locations appropriate for restoration and conservation, assisting management in the rehabilitation and protection of bivalve beds and ES.
了解和预测相互作用的压力源的影响对于有效管理海洋生态系统及其提供的基本生态系统服务(ES)至关重要。将累积效应及其对生态系统服务提供的影响整合到空间工具中的一个关键挑战是,在数据稀缺、生态系统复杂和不确定的情况下,如何超越简单的加法压力源相互作用。在此,我们提出了一种新颖的方法,用于评估多种压力因素对两种河口底栖双壳类动物(Austrovenus stutchburyi 和 Paphies australis)所提供的生态系统服务潜力的累积效应。我们首先评估了密度分布和出现概率在沉积物含泥量增加、捕捞压力和海平面上升情况下的变化。我们通过物种分布模型(SDM)模拟了这些压力因素的单一和累积效应。然后使用基于原理的模型来评估环境条件和贝类丰度的变化对食物供应、水质调节、脱氮和沉积物稳定等生态系统服务潜力的影响。在非致命水平上模拟单个和累积压力因素,发现它们会导致双壳贝类密度及其分布发生重大变化,但由于最佳环境条件的变化,它们对环境服务潜力既有积极影响,也有消极影响。压力因素数量的增加会导致密度下降,尤其是对奥氏双壳贝来说,采捕压力是导致高密度区域密度下降的常见原因。这种影响同样反映在生态系统服务预测中,尽管物种之间在生境关联性和对压力因素的敏感性方面存在细微差别。例如,海平面上升和淤泥的增加对奥氏海龟的负面影响更大。压力因素的影响在空间上各不相同,有些区域受到的影响比其他区域严重,这表明高ES区域总体上有所减少,而中等ES潜力的区域有所增加。这项研究引入了将生态系统服务纳入累积效应评估的高效、易用的方法,其视角使评估结果更易于管理。该研究采用交互式建模方法而非简单的相加方法,可提供更可靠的信息,有助于防止出现生态意外。这些定量空间预测将有助于确定脆弱区域、重点压力因素以及适合恢复和保护的地点,从而协助管理部门恢复和保护双壳贝床和 ES。
{"title":"Predicting the cumulative effects of multiple stressors on shellfish ecosystem service potential","authors":"Elizabeth Harrison ,&nbsp;Fabrice Stephenson ,&nbsp;Vera Rullens ,&nbsp;Conrad Pilditch ,&nbsp;Joanne Ellis","doi":"10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107486","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107486","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding and anticipating the effects of interacting stressors is critical for the effective management of marine ecosystems and the essential ecosystem services (ES) they provide. A key challenge in integrating cumulative effects and their impacts on ES delivery into spatial tools is to move beyond simple additive stressor interactions in the face of data scarcity, ecosystem complexity and uncertainty. Here we present a novel methodological approach with which to assess the cumulative effects of multiple stressors on the ES potential provided by two estuarine infaunal bivalves (<em>Austrovenus stutchburyi</em> and <em>Paphies australis</em>) which we illustrate in a case study within the Tauranga Harbour, New Zealand. We firstly assess the shift in density distribution and probability of occurrence in response to increasing sediment mud content, harvesting pressure and sea level rise. The single and cumulative effects of these stressors were simulated through species distribution models (SDM). Principle based models were then used to assess the translation of altered environmental conditions and shellfish abundance on the ES potential for food provision, water quality regulation, nitrogen removal and sediment stabilisation. The simulation of single and cumulative stressors at non-lethal levels were found to cause substantial changes to bivalve density and their distribution but could have both positive and negative impacts on ES potential due to shifts in optimal environmental conditions. Increasing the number of stressors delivered a worse outcome in terms of loss of density, particularly for <em>Austrovenus</em> with harvesting pressure being a common driver of decline in high density areas. This effect was similarly reflected in the ES predictions although there were nuances between the species related to habitat association and sensitivity to stressors. For example, the increase of sea level rise and mud had a greater negative impact on <em>Austrovenus</em>. Stressor effects varied spatially with some areas more heavily impacted than others and indicated an overall reduction of high ES areas whilst increasing areas of medium ES potential. This study introduces efficient and accessible means for integrating ES into cumulative effects assessments, the perspective from which renders the results more digestible for management. Using an interactive modelling approach rather than simple additive methods, it provides more robust information, aiding the prevention of ecological surprises. These quantitative spatial predictions will facilitate the identification of vulnerable areas, priority stressors and locations appropriate for restoration and conservation, assisting management in the rehabilitation and protection of bivalve beds and ES.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54698,"journal":{"name":"Ocean & Coastal Management","volume":"259 ","pages":"Article 107486"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142660023","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Robust integrated multi-mode scheduling of flexible loading and unloading operations with maintenance services in a port container terminal 港口集装箱码头灵活装卸作业与维护服务的稳健综合多模式调度
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-11-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107481
Behnam Vahdani , D. Veysmoradi , M. Basir Abyaneh , M. Rashedi
This study proposes an unparalleled integrated scheduling model for simultaneous loading, unloading, and maintenance operations in a port container terminal, wherein several heterogeneous handling equipment serve inbound and outbound vessels. In this regard, a multi-mode loading approach and the possibility of multiple allocations are also considered, wherein outbound vessels can be loaded by containers belonging to inbound vessels or the storage area. In addition, the proposed model covers all cases of equality and inequality in the number of inbound and outbound containers. More importantly, a flexible loading approach based on a class-based stowage plan is considered to better utilize equipment and increase the efficiency of the loading process. Additionally, since the timing of maintenance operations undoubtedly affects scheduling and entails miscellaneous uncertainties, a two-phase data-driven method is presented to estimate robust maintenance operation times. The first phase involves a hybrid machine learning strategy that combines the Savitzky–Golay Filter (SGF), the Takagi–Sugeno–Kang (TSK) fuzzy system, and minibatch gradient descent with regularization, DropRule, and AdaBound (MBGD-RDA) for the estimation of maintenance operation times. The second phase employs the distributionally robust optimization (DRO) technique that leverages φ-divergence to address the uncertainties associated with the estimated times. Finally, a case study is conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed framework, accompanied by an examination of various simulation experiments. The results obtained indicate that the implementation of a flexible loading strategy can lead to a 24% reduction in the loading time of vessels.
本研究为港口集装箱码头的同步装卸和维护操作提出了一个无与伦比的综合调度模型,其中多个异构装卸设备为进出港船舶提供服务。在这方面,还考虑了多模式装载方法和多重分配的可能性,即出港船只可以装载属于进港船只或存储区的集装箱。此外,所提出的模型涵盖了进出港集装箱数量相等和不相等的所有情况。更重要的是,考虑了一种灵活的装载方法,该方法基于基于等级的积载计划,以更好地利用设备并提高装载过程的效率。此外,由于维护操作的时间无疑会影响调度并带来各种不确定性,因此提出了一种两阶段数据驱动方法来估算稳健的维护操作时间。第一阶段采用混合机器学习策略,结合萨维茨基-戈雷滤波器(SGF)、高木-菅野-康(TSK)模糊系统和带正则化、DropRule 和 AdaBound(MBGD-RDA)的小批量梯度下降法来估算维护作业时间。第二阶段采用分布稳健优化(DRO)技术,利用φ-发散来解决与估计时间相关的不确定性。最后,通过对各种模拟实验的检查,进行了一项案例研究,以证明拟议框架的有效性和适用性。结果表明,实施灵活的装载策略可使船舶装载时间缩短 24%。
{"title":"Robust integrated multi-mode scheduling of flexible loading and unloading operations with maintenance services in a port container terminal","authors":"Behnam Vahdani ,&nbsp;D. Veysmoradi ,&nbsp;M. Basir Abyaneh ,&nbsp;M. Rashedi","doi":"10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107481","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107481","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study proposes an unparalleled integrated scheduling model for simultaneous loading, unloading, and maintenance operations in a port container terminal, wherein several heterogeneous handling equipment serve inbound and outbound vessels. In this regard, a multi-mode loading approach and the possibility of multiple allocations are also considered, wherein outbound vessels can be loaded by containers belonging to inbound vessels or the storage area. In addition, the proposed model covers all cases of equality and inequality in the number of inbound and outbound containers. More importantly, a flexible loading approach based on a class-based stowage plan is considered to better utilize equipment and increase the efficiency of the loading process. Additionally, since the timing of maintenance operations undoubtedly affects scheduling and entails miscellaneous uncertainties, a two-phase data-driven method is presented to estimate robust maintenance operation times. The first phase involves a hybrid machine learning strategy that combines the Savitzky–Golay Filter (SGF), the Takagi–Sugeno–Kang (TSK) fuzzy system, and minibatch gradient descent with regularization, DropRule, and AdaBound (MBGD-RDA) for the estimation of maintenance operation times. The second phase employs the distributionally robust optimization (DRO) technique that leverages <span><math><mrow><mi>φ</mi></mrow></math></span>-divergence to address the uncertainties associated with the estimated times. Finally, a case study is conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed framework, accompanied by an examination of various simulation experiments. The results obtained indicate that the implementation of a flexible loading strategy can lead to a 24% reduction in the loading time of vessels.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54698,"journal":{"name":"Ocean & Coastal Management","volume":"259 ","pages":"Article 107481"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142660022","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Decomposition of driving factors of carbon emissions and carbon sinks from marine fishery production in China 中国海洋渔业生产碳排放与碳汇驱动因素分解
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-11-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107476
Jiekun Song, Zhicheng Liu, Kaiyuan Huang, Xueli Leng, Huisheng Xiao
Marine fishery production has the dual properties of "carbon source" and "carbon sink", and is an important means to achieve carbon neutrality. This study combines a two-layer meta-frontier production theoretical decomposition analysis (PDA) model with the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) model to analyze the driving factors of carbon source change in Marine fishery production in China's coastal provinces. The LMDI model is applied to analyze the effects of employed population, per capita output value, input area per unit of output value, output per unit area and output structure on carbon sinks in each province. The results indicate that: (1) The potential energy intensity and technological progress are the driving factors of carbon emission reduction in most provinces, while output value and energy consumption structure are the important hindering factors. Each province should improve the overall efficiency of energy utilization, promote technological progress, and optimize the energy consumption structure to reduce carbon emissions. (2) The non-stationarity of scale efficiency of energy utilization promoted carbon emission reduction recently. All provinces, especially those with scale efficiency less than 1, should pursue the optimal allocation efficiency of input resources and maintain the coordination of scale development. (3) The effects reflecting the inter-regional pure technical efficiency imbalance and the impact of inter-regional scale efficiency are mostly 0. The provinces with positive effects should catch up with the advanced provinces and seek the best technology and management level and the optimal input-output scale. (4) The effects reflecting the imbalance of pure technological efficiency and the ineffectiveness of scale efficiency within the region are almost 0. Each province should continue to maintain a high level of technology and management, as well as a high efficiency in resource allocation, to ensure the efficient use of input resources and their optimal scale. (5) Per capita output value and output per unit area are the main driving factors of carbon sinks. In addition to leveraging the positive effects of these two factors, each province should focus on optimizing product structure and increasing the employed population to increase carbon sinks. (6) Regional integrated and coordinated management should be implemented. According to the important factors affecting the change of carbon emissions and carbon sinks in each region, the provinces in the region should be coordinated to take targeted measures.
海洋渔业生产具有 "碳源 "和 "碳汇 "的双重属性,是实现碳中和的重要手段。本研究将两层元前沿生产理论分解分析(PDA)模型与对数平均分化指数(LMDI)模型相结合,分析了中国沿海省份海洋渔业生产碳源变化的驱动因素。利用 LMDI 模型分析了各省就业人口、人均产值、单位产值投入面积、单位面积产出和产出结构对碳汇的影响。结果表明(1)潜在能源强度和技术进步是大部分省份碳减排的驱动因素,产值和能耗结构是重要的阻碍因素。各省应提高能源综合利用效率,促进技术进步,优化能源消费结构,以减少碳排放。(2)能源利用规模效率的非稳定性促进了近期碳减排。各省,尤其是规模效率小于 1 的省份,应追求投入资源的最优配置效率,保持规模发展的协调性。(3)反映区域间纯技术效率失衡和区域间规模效率影响的效应大多为 0,效应为正的省份应赶超先进省份,寻求最佳的技术和管理水平以及最优的投入产出规模。(4)反映区域内纯技术效率失衡和规模效率失效的效应几乎为 0,各省应继续保持较高的技术和管理水平,以及较高的资源配置效率,确保投入资源的高效利用和规模最优。(5)人均产值和单位面积产出是碳汇的主要驱动因素。除了发挥这两个因素的积极作用外,各省应注重优化产品结构,增加就业人口,以增加碳汇。(六)实施区域综合协调管理。根据各地区影响碳排放和碳汇变化的重要因素,协调区域内各省采取有针对性的措施。
{"title":"Decomposition of driving factors of carbon emissions and carbon sinks from marine fishery production in China","authors":"Jiekun Song,&nbsp;Zhicheng Liu,&nbsp;Kaiyuan Huang,&nbsp;Xueli Leng,&nbsp;Huisheng Xiao","doi":"10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107476","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107476","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Marine fishery production has the dual properties of \"carbon source\" and \"carbon sink\", and is an important means to achieve carbon neutrality. This study combines a two-layer meta-frontier production theoretical decomposition analysis (PDA) model with the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) model to analyze the driving factors of carbon source change in Marine fishery production in China's coastal provinces. The LMDI model is applied to analyze the effects of employed population, per capita output value, input area per unit of output value, output per unit area and output structure on carbon sinks in each province. The results indicate that: (1) The potential energy intensity and technological progress are the driving factors of carbon emission reduction in most provinces, while output value and energy consumption structure are the important hindering factors. Each province should improve the overall efficiency of energy utilization, promote technological progress, and optimize the energy consumption structure to reduce carbon emissions. (2) The non-stationarity of scale efficiency of energy utilization promoted carbon emission reduction recently. All provinces, especially those with scale efficiency less than 1, should pursue the optimal allocation efficiency of input resources and maintain the coordination of scale development. (3) The effects reflecting the inter-regional pure technical efficiency imbalance and the impact of inter-regional scale efficiency are mostly 0. The provinces with positive effects should catch up with the advanced provinces and seek the best technology and management level and the optimal input-output scale. (4) The effects reflecting the imbalance of pure technological efficiency and the ineffectiveness of scale efficiency within the region are almost 0. Each province should continue to maintain a high level of technology and management, as well as a high efficiency in resource allocation, to ensure the efficient use of input resources and their optimal scale. (5) Per capita output value and output per unit area are the main driving factors of carbon sinks. In addition to leveraging the positive effects of these two factors, each province should focus on optimizing product structure and increasing the employed population to increase carbon sinks. (6) Regional integrated and coordinated management should be implemented. According to the important factors affecting the change of carbon emissions and carbon sinks in each region, the provinces in the region should be coordinated to take targeted measures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54698,"journal":{"name":"Ocean & Coastal Management","volume":"259 ","pages":"Article 107476"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142660021","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
期刊
Ocean & Coastal Management
全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1