Overabundant ungulate populations in predator-free protected areas always lead to vegetation loss, soil degradation, and disease outbreaks. This study evaluates alternative management strategies for Cabañeros National Park (Spain) following the 2020 hunting ban. Since then, the number of red deer (Cervus elaphus) and wild boar (Sus scrofa) has increased uncontrollably, causing rapid vegetation loss, soil erosion, and the emergence of density-dependent diseases. To conduct this study, a systems dynamics simulation model was developed that integrates ungulate demography, vegetation biomass, and soil quality over a 15-year period (2015–2030). Three scenarios were tested: (i) continued no intervention, (ii) introduction of 10 wolves (Canis lupus signatus) in 2025, and (iii) reinstatement of selective hunting with an annual culling of 15%. Model calibration used monitoring data and literature-based parameter estimates, with sensitivity analyses used to identify key drivers. As a result, ungulate biomass is projected to double by 2030, vegetation cover will decline below ecological thresholds, and soil organic matter will decline irreversibly. Wolf introduction slows population growth but does not allow vegetation recovery within five years. Selective hunting stabilizes ungulate numbers, restores vegetation above the threshold, and halves projected soil loss. Sensitivity analyses highlight ungulate birth rates and hunting rates as the most influential parameters. In conclusion, the model indicates that, under current conditions, regulated hunting is the only proven single-lever policy capable of achieving short-term ecological recovery. The findings provide an evidence-based framework for decision-makers, emphasizing the need for timely intervention to prevent irreversible ecosystem degradation in Mediterranean protected areas.
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