Injury-International Journal of the Care of the Injured最新文献

{"title":"Time to surgery and other risk factors for mortality and complication rates in patients with periprosthetic femoral fractures at the knee","authors":"Christian Wulbrand,&nbsp;Franz Müller,&nbsp;Markus Weber,&nbsp;Bernd Füchtmeier,&nbsp;Alexander Hanke","doi":"10.1016/j.injury.2024.112071","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.injury.2024.112071","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>There is a high level of evidence that a short time to surgery (TTS) improves the outcome for patients with hip fractures. Accordingly, recommendations for timely treatment have been included in national guidelines. As patient characteristics appear to be similar, it seems reasonable that these guidelines are applicable to other fracture entities, such as knee periprosthetic femoral fracture (PPF). This monocentric retrospective study aimed to investigate outcome-related risk factors, particularly TTS, for knee PPF.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>In total, 141 consecutive patients with knee PPF in a maximum-care arthroplasty and trauma centre, treated between 2006 and 2020, were retrospectively evaluated. Primary outcome variables were operative and general complications as well as mortalities within 1 year. Outcome-related risk factors were identified based on regression analysis using SPSS. For analysis of TTS, the cases were divided into two groups using a TTS of 24 h as the cutoff value.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>The 1-year mortality was 8.3 %. Associated risk factors were age (HR 1.2; <em>p</em> = 0.010) and Charlson score (HR 2.1; <em>p</em> = 0.001). Both, surgical and general complications occurred in 20.6 % of the cases. Age (OR 1.07, <em>p</em> = 0.025) and a TTS &gt; 24 h (OR 3.06, <em>p</em> = 0.020) were identified as risk factors for general complications. The TTS ≤ 24 h (<em>n</em> = 75) and TTS &gt; 24 h (<em>n</em> = 66) groups were comparable in terms of baseline characteristics. Revision arthroplasty was performed more frequently in the TTS &gt; 24 h group (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.001).</div></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><div>1-year mortality after knee PPF was 8.3 %. With a high complication rate in the treatment of knee PPF, TTS was identified as a risk factor for general complications. Early treatment appears to be beneficial for patients with knee PPF.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54978,"journal":{"name":"Injury-International Journal of the Care of the Injured","volume":"56 2","pages":"Article 112071"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142792676","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Fractures complicating intraosseous access in pediatric patients – A systematic review","authors":"Megan Williams ,&nbsp;Samira Mehdi ,&nbsp;Lauren Tristani ,&nbsp;Dina El Demellawy ,&nbsp;Youssef Nasr","doi":"10.1016/j.injury.2024.112034","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.injury.2024.112034","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Introduction</h3><div>Intraosseous (IO) access is a commonly used procedure in pediatric emergencies for establishingvascular access when alternative means, such as intravenous access, cannot be obtained. Likealternative routes, IO can be administered quickly and provides a route for medications, blood products,and fluids to be infused in emergency circumstances. While the use of IO is generally considered safewith minimal risks, potential complications can include compartment syndrome, infection, thrombosis, and fracture.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>Following PRISMA guidelines, a comprehensive search was performed across various academicdatabases. Search parameters were restricted to exclude articles that where; non-English, non-full text,and not published between 1922 and 2022. Articles were included in analysis if they included patients from 0 to 18 and reported on both the patient outcomes and the procedural information.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>Following data synthesis (<em>n</em> = 27 articles [<em>n</em> = 1339 cases]), it was observed that the EZ-IO needle was thepredominant choice of access, accounting for 69.7 % of cases. The tibia emerged as the most frequentlyselected insertion site, utilized in 97 % of instances. Among the 226 cases that reported on laterality, a nearly equal distribution between left (114) and right (112) sides were observed. Most IO attempts were successful in accessing vascular access upon first attempt. There were 23 cases that required a second attempt to achieve access, and 4 cases necessitating 3 or more attempts. Within 1339 participants, a complication was reported in 105 cases, producing a complication rate of 7.8 %. Of those 105 complications, fracture occurred 7 times (6.67 %). When specifically isolating fracture as a complication resulting IO access, only 7 cases were reported, indicating an occurrence rate of 0.52 %.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><div>This review supports the rarity of fracture as a complication following the use of an IO needle in pediatric age group, emphasizing the need for additional research to elucidate the underlying risk factors associated with fracture in these cases. Additionally, it underscores the importance of conducting further pathological investigations to gain insight into bone histology that may be indicative of IO access and/or fracture occurrence.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54978,"journal":{"name":"Injury-International Journal of the Care of the Injured","volume":"56 2","pages":"Article 112034"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142831516","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Arthroscopic lateral ligament reconstruction for isolated chronic lateral ankle instability is associated with longer recovery compared to arthroscopic Broström repair and inferior extensor retinaculum augmentation","authors":"Shi-Ming Feng ,&nbsp;Qing-Qing Sun ,&nbsp;Chong Xue ,&nbsp;Nicola Maffulli ,&nbsp;Francesco Oliva ,&nbsp;Xin Luo","doi":"10.1016/j.injury.2024.112082","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.injury.2024.112082","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Patients with chronic lateral ankle instability (CLAI) can be managed with arthroscopic Broström repair and inferior extensor retinaculum augmentation or arthroscopic assisted lateral ligament reconstruction using ipsilateral semitendinosus autograft, with good functional outcomes in patients. It is unclear whether one offers better outcome that the other. This retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data compared the outcomes of repair and reconstruction.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>Patient treated for CLAI by arthroscopic Broström repair and inferior extensor retinaculum augmentation (Repair/augmentation Group; n=39) and lateral ligament reconstruction (Reconstruction Group; n=23) procedures with a minimum follow-up of 24 months were enrolled. The operative time, American Orthopedic Foot and Ankle Society (AOFAS) scores, Karlsson Ankle Functional Score (KAFS), Tegner score, Anterior Talar Translation (ATT), Active Joint Position Sense (AJPS), and the time of the patients return to sports activities were assessed.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>The operative time was longer in the Reconstruction Group. The patients in the Reconstruction Group experienced more pain. At 3 months after surgery, the patients in Repair/augmentation Group gained better AOFAS, KAFS, Tegner, and AJPS scores. At 6 months after surgery, better KAFS and AJPS were observed in Repair/augmentation Group. At 1 and 2 years, patients in the Reconstruction Group recorded better functional outcomes (AOFAS and KAFS) compared to the Repair/augmentation Group. The mean time of the patients return to sports activities was 10.42 ± 7.77 weeks (range, 8-56 weeks) in the Repair/augmentation Group, compared to 14.18± 5.34 weeks (range, 8-24 weeks) in the Reconstruction Group (<em>p</em> = 0.049).</div></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><div>In CLAI patients, arthroscopic reconstruction yields better outcomes in terms of ATT, AOFAS, and KAFS in the mid-term; however, it is associated with a longer intraoperative time, delayed return to sports, and an extended duration to resume normal ankle function compared to the arthroscopic Broström repair and inferior extensor retinaculum augmentation procedure.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54978,"journal":{"name":"Injury-International Journal of the Care of the Injured","volume":"56 2","pages":"Article 112082"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142866824","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Role of trauma center level in the outcome of severely injured geriatric patients","authors":"Samantha Scharringa ,&nbsp;Pieta Krijnen ,&nbsp;Pieter van de Linde ,&nbsp;Willem Stigter ,&nbsp;Guido Stollenwerck ,&nbsp;Jan Siert Reinders ,&nbsp;Klaas Hartholt ,&nbsp;Jochem Maarten Hoogendoorn ,&nbsp;Inger B. Schipper","doi":"10.1016/j.injury.2025.112201","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.injury.2025.112201","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>According to the nationally imposed standard of care in the Netherlands, severely injured patients should be brought to a Level-1 trauma center for primary treatment. If not, they are considered to be undertriaged. This study aimed to determine the incidence of undertriage among severely injured geriatric patients and to evaluate the relation between hospital-undertriage and patient outcomes in elderly.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>This retrospective cohort study used anonymized data from the regional trauma registry of 1,431 patients aged ≥70 years with an Injury Severity Score ≥16 that were admitted to hospitals within the Trauma Region West-Netherlands between 2015 and 2022. Poor patient outcome was defined as in-hospital mortality or as a Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) score ≤3 at hospital discharge. The association between hospital level and poor outcomes was analyzed using multivariable logistic regression analysis with adjustment for confounders after multiple imputation of missing values.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>Seventeen percent of the severely injured geriatric patients were primarily transported to a Level-2/3 hospital. Female patients, older patients, and patients that had suffered a low-energy fall were most likely to be undertriaged. The adjusted odds ratio's for in-hospital mortality and GOS score ≤3 in Level-1 versus Level-2/3 hospitals were 1.26 (95 % confidence interval, 0.83–1.93; <em>p</em> = 0.28) and 0.81 (95 % confidence interval, 0.57–1.15; <em>p</em> = 0.24), respectively.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><div>Undertriaged severely injured geriatric patients did not have a higher risk for poor outcomes. Level-2/3 hospitals seem to present a safe alternative for the treatment of these patients.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54978,"journal":{"name":"Injury-International Journal of the Care of the Injured","volume":"56 3","pages":"Article 112201"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143174578","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Trends and mortality in hip fracture surgery among octogenarians, nonagenarians, and centenarians: high postoperative mortality in centenarians despite few comorbidities","authors":"Seok Ha Hong,&nbsp;Seung Beom Han","doi":"10.1016/j.injury.2025.112179","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.injury.2025.112179","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Introduction</h3><div>The older population, especially centenarians, is growing. Hip fractures significantly affect this demographic; however, studies on centenarians are limited. This study aimed to compare hip fracture mortality and associated risk factors between centenarians, nonagenarians, and octogenarians with focus on centenarians.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>Data from the Korean Health Insurance Review and Assessment database were retrospectively analyzed. Individuals aged ≥ 80 years with an ICD-10 diagnosis code (S72) and procedure codes indicative of hip fracture surgery between 2012 and 2022 were included. The primary outcome was mortality at 1, 3, 6 months, and 1 year postoperatively. The secondary outcomes included the prevalence of comorbidities and postoperative complications.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>131,746 patients were included (106,244 [80.6 %] octogenarians, 24,842 [18.9 %] nonagenarians, and 660 [0.5 %] centenarians). Centenarians had lower Charlson Comorbidity Index than that of nonagenarians and octogenarians (4.4, 4.9, and 5.7, respectively; <em>P</em> &lt; 0.000). However, perioperative medical complications such as acute kidney injury (AKI), acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), pneumonia, sepsis, and urinary tract infection increased linearly with age, significantly affecting centenarians. Mortality rates were highest in centenarians, especially within the first 3 postoperative months. The risk factors for 3-month mortality included the male sex (odds ratio [OR] 1.79, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.01–3.12, <em>P</em> = 0.046), and heart failure (OR 1.72, 95 % CI 1.07–2.79, <em>P</em> = 0.026) preoperatively, and AKI (OR 3.92, 95 % CI 1.97–7.82, <em>P</em> &lt; 0.000), ARDS (OR 2.92, 95 % CI 1.04–8.23, <em>P</em> = 0.04), pneumonia (OR 1.91, 95 % CI 1.11–3.29, <em>P</em> = 0.02), and sepsis (OR 10.01, 95 % CI 3.52–28.45, <em>P</em> &lt; 0.000) postoperatively.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><div>Despite having fewer comorbidities, centenarians had the highest postoperative mortality, primarily due to organ dysfunction such as pneumonia, AKI, ARDS, and sepsis, rather than vascular events. Tailored medical management strategies focusing on these complications are crucial for improving centenarians outcomes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54978,"journal":{"name":"Injury-International Journal of the Care of the Injured","volume":"56 3","pages":"Article 112179"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143463407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modified posterolateral approach to the ankle: A novel approach to minimise soft tissue dissection","authors":"S.M. Timoko-Barnes,&nbsp;C. Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.injury.2025.112198","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.injury.2025.112198","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Unstable ankle injuries often comprise multiple fracture lines; including a posterior malleolus fracture in up to 40% of cases. Surgical fixation of such injuries often requires multiple incisions. The configuration of the posterior malleolus fracture can also vary greatly, and the presence of this fracture is known to poorly affect patient outcomes. In this paper, the authors describe a modified posterolateral approach to the ankle which provides three windows for fixation of complex ankle fractures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54978,"journal":{"name":"Injury-International Journal of the Care of the Injured","volume":"56 3","pages":"Article 112198"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143208346","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A 10-year experience of paediatric lower limb free flap surgery an evolution over time","authors":"Riyam Mistry ,&nbsp;Umraz Khan","doi":"10.1016/j.injury.2025.112196","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.injury.2025.112196","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Introduction</h3><div>Open lower limb fractures can carry significant morbidity and are typically managed with a well-defined care pathway. Thankfully such injuries are less frequent in paediatric populations. Management for children is the same as it is for adults. The aim of this study was to analyse paediatric patients undergoing treatment for open lower limb fractures at a UK major trauma centre over a ten-year period.</div></div><div><h3>Method</h3><div>A retrospective analysis was performed on all paediatric patients with an open lower limb fracture that required soft tissue coverage, presenting to a major trauma centre with orthoplastic services from December 2011 to February 2023. Patient data was analysed according to demographics, co-morbidities, injury classification, time to wound excision, time to definitive surgery, soft-tissue reconstruction type and size, types of anastomoses used, grades of operators, peri‑operative use of inotropes and blood products, return to theatre in 24 h, flap survival and long-term complications.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>We treated 94 patients with a mean age of 11 years old and mean weight of 46 .21kg The majority were ASA Grade I (80 %), additional co-morbidities included asthma, obesity and ADHD. Open tibial fractures were most common (61 %) followed by open foot fractures (18 %). Admission was within 24 h for 84 of the 86 patients for whom there was data, with 71 % having definitive fixation within 72 h of injury. The scapular or scapular/parscapular flap was most used (52 %) followed by an anterolateral thigh flap (29 %). A consultant was main operator in 70 % and a microsurgical fellow in 15 % of the cases recorded.</div><div>Five cases out of 78 we had data for returned to theatre within the first 24 h of definitive surgery. with a mean of 18.5 h. In long term follow up there was 1 total flap failure and 1 flap that survived 60 % out of 53 patients there was data for. There were no deep bone infections.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><div>Paediatric patients should be treated as aggressively as adults with an open lower limb fracture. Scapular and scapular/parascapular flaps offer a more cosmetically and functionally appealing option. Prompt IV antibiotics, combined specialist orthopaedics and plastics experience help to reduce deep bone infections.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54978,"journal":{"name":"Injury-International Journal of the Care of the Injured","volume":"56 3","pages":"Article 112196"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143175578","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluating brain injury outcomes in female subjects: A computational approach to accident reconstruction of fatal and non-fatal cases","authors":"Carlos G.S. Cardoso,&nbsp;André A. Salgado,&nbsp;Fábio A.O. Fernandes,&nbsp;Ricardo J. Alves de Sousa","doi":"10.1016/j.injury.2025.112164","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.injury.2025.112164","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Traumatic brain injury remains a significant concern in public health, affecting millions of individuals globally and leading to long-term cognitive and physical impairments. Historically, research in this field has primarily focused on male subjects, often neglecting to consider the substantial biomechanical and anatomical differences between genders and individuals of varying ages. The present study investigates sex-specific biomechanical responses to head impacts in real-world accidents, employing an advanced female finite element head model, with a particular focus on critical brain structures such as the corpus callosum and pituitary gland.</div><div>Two real-world accident scenarios were simulated: a non-fatal e-scooter collision and a fatal work-related incident involving a falling prop. A finite element analysis was conducted to determine the strain and stress distributions within the brain in response to impact conditions, assessing the potential for injury considering established failure criteria.</div><div>The analysis revealed notable discrepancies in strain and stress distributions between anthropometric models. The smallest percentiles exhibited a higher risk of strain-related injury, while larger individuals demonstrated higher strain levels in key brain regions under similar impact conditions. Additionally, it was evaluated the efficacy of a safety helmet in a work-related scenario.</div><div>These findings highlight the importance of subject-specific analyses in understanding TBIs and emphasise the need for continued refinement of FEHMs to improve the accuracy of injury prediction.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54978,"journal":{"name":"Injury-International Journal of the Care of the Injured","volume":"56 3","pages":"Article 112164"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143082450","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"In-hospital hypernatremia prior to discharge to primary care hospitals predicts 90-day mortality in older hip fracture patients","authors":"L.Matias Pehkonen ,&nbsp;Sanna Collin ,&nbsp;Päivi Korhonen ,&nbsp;Maria S. Nuotio","doi":"10.1016/j.injury.2025.112199","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.injury.2025.112199","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Purpose</h3><div>Discharge is a critical time point in the care pathway of geriatric hospital patients, and post-acute care facilities often have less monitoring possibilities. Active medical issues such as electrolyte disturbances should be treated before transfer. We studied the impact of in-hospital hypernatremia of older hip fracture patients to mortality at 90 days.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>A retrospective study population of 2240 hip fracture patients from 2015 to 2019 was collected from the Hospital District of Southwest Finland data pool. In the present study we included patients aged ≥65 years who were transferred from the operating hospital to primary health care wards after surgery (<em>n</em> = 1,125). Laboratory results were collected on admission and before discharge. The main outcome was mortality at 90 days.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>Hypernatremia, defined as serum sodium ≥144 mmol/l, was present in 6.8 % (<em>n</em> = 91) before discharge. For patients with hypernatremia the crude mortality at 90 days was 35.8 % (95 % CI 27.1 to 46.3) and for patients with normal serum sodium 9.6 % (95 % CI 8.0 to 11.6). The age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratio of hypernatremia compared to normal serum sodium was 3.91 (95 % CI 2.62 to 5.82).</div></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><div>In-hospital hypernatremia had predictive value for 90-day mortality. We recommend active screening for and prompt treatment of perioperative hypernatremia in hip fracture patients. Local guidelines and discharge checklists are recommended to secure the discharge period.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54978,"journal":{"name":"Injury-International Journal of the Care of the Injured","volume":"56 3","pages":"Article 112199"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143174576","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Time-series projecting road traffic fatalities in Australia: Insights for targeted safety interventions","authors":"Ali Soltani ,&nbsp;Saeid Afshari ,&nbsp;Mohammad Amin Amiri","doi":"10.1016/j.injury.2025.112166","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.injury.2025.112166","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite substantial progress in road safety, road traffic fatalities (RTFs) continue to be a persistent issue in Australia. This study aims to forecast RTFs trends up to 2050 by analyzing factors such as geographic location, age, gender, speed limits, and time of occurrence. Utilizing historical data from 1989 to 2024, fatalities were categorized by road user type, demographics, and day of the week. The Facebook Prophet time series model, incorporating categorical variables like region, age, and speed limits, was employed to predict future trends. The analysis reveals significant regional disparities in fatality reduction rates, with some areas lagging others. Gender-specific forecasts indicate a sharper decline in male fatalities compared to females, while projections highlight persistent risks for older drivers. Additionally, highways with higher speed limits are expected to see a substantial decrease in fatalities. These insights emphasize the need for targeted interventions in areas with slower reductions and high-risk demographic groups, aiding policymakers in refining safety measures, enforcing speed limits, and enhancing public awareness campaigns.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54978,"journal":{"name":"Injury-International Journal of the Care of the Injured","volume":"56 3","pages":"Article 112166"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143427894","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}