When introducing new educational systems, governments must consider the expectations of end beneficiaries to ensure alignment between stated objectives and intended outcomes. A notable example is the implementation of the Bachelor–Master–Doctorate (BMD) system in higher education in developing countries. This large-scale reform places particular emphasis on integrating information technologies for learning, commonly referred to as e-learning. However, existing literature on e-learning adoption as a decision support system rarely examines the policies and strategies that shape its integration into educational systems. This study analyzes the factors driving e-learning adoption by higher education institutions in a developing country within the BMD framework. A mixed-methods approach was employed, combining a survey-based study, exploratory qualitative interviews and reports, and a literature review to develop a questionnaire grounded in expectancy–performance theory. Data were analyzed using partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) and fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA). The results indicate positive relationships between technological context factors (network speed, network coverage, and device performance), expected academic performance factors (student motivation, course design, learning outcomes, learning assistance, and community-building support), and students' intention to use information technology for learning.
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