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The strength of weak ties and fake news believability 弱联系的强度与假新闻的可信度
IF 6.7 1区 计算机科学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2024-07-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.dss.2024.114275
Babajide Osatuyi , Alan R. Dennis

Are we more likely to believe a social media news story shared by someone with whom we have a strong or weak tie? We tend to trust close ties more than weak ties, but weak ties are sources of new information more often than strong ones. We conducted an online experiment to examine the effect of tie strength (strong ties vs. weak ties) on the decision to believe or not believe fake news stories. Participants perceived false stories from weak ties to be more believable than false stories from strong ties (after controlling for the trustworthiness of the sharer). We found that a sharer's perceived ability to share reliable information plays a significant role in individuals' decision to believe news stories on social media, regardless of whether the source is a strong or weak tie. Interestingly, a sharer's perceived integrity was found to be important only when the information came from weak ties, while a sharer's perceived benevolence was not important for either weak or strong ties. These findings show that the perceived integrity of the sharer is a key factor in the decision to believe stories from weak ties, more so than from strong ties. Furthermore, a sharer's perceived ability to share reliable information is less critical when weak ties share true stories. The impact of weak ties does not stem from the novelty of their information, as we used identical headlines across both study groups. Thus, while the strength of weak ties effect is present in this context, the underlying theoretical mechanism differs from the novelty of information traditionally observed in other settings.

我们更有可能相信与我们有强弱关系的人分享的社交媒体新闻吗?与弱关系相比,我们更倾向于相信亲密关系,但与强关系相比,弱关系往往是新信息的来源。我们进行了一项在线实验,研究纽带强度(强纽带与弱纽带)对决定相信或不相信假新闻的影响。在控制了分享者的可信度之后),参与者认为弱关系人的假新闻比强关系人的假新闻更可信。我们发现,无论消息来源是强关系还是弱关系,分享者分享可靠信息的感知能力在个人决定是否相信社交媒体上的新闻报道方面都起着重要作用。有趣的是,只有当信息来源于弱关系时,分享者的诚信度才会变得重要,而分享者的仁慈度对弱关系和强关系都不重要。这些发现表明,在决定是否相信来自弱关系的故事时,分享者所感知到的诚信是一个关键因素,比来自强关系的更重要。此外,当弱关系人分享真实故事时,分享者分享可靠信息的能力并不那么重要。弱关系的影响并非源于其信息的新颖性,因为我们在两个研究小组中使用了相同的标题。因此,虽然弱纽带效应的强度在这种情况下是存在的,但其基本理论机制与传统上在其他情况下观察到的信息新颖性不同。
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引用次数: 0
Social contagions in business resilience: Evidence from the U.S. restaurant industry in the COVID-19 pandemic 企业复原力中的社会传染病:美国餐饮业在 COVID-19 大流行中的证据
IF 6.7 1区 计算机科学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.dss.2024.114288
Long Xia , Christopher Lee

The unprecedented COVID-19 has led to the collapse of numerous businesses, notably within the tourism and hospitality sectors. Despite the burgeoning research on resilience, few studies have embraced a theoretical lens, particularly from a social network perspective. In addition, most extant resilience studies have not explicitly considered the geographic accessibility prerequisite inherent to tourism and hospitality products. In this study, leveraging the social contagion theory, we present a holistic research framework to investigate the influence of geographic and social proximities, two pivotal social contagion mechanisms, on business resilience. We also delve into moderating factors to discern the conditions under which contagion effects are amplified or attenuated. To validate our theoretical model, we select the restaurant industry as our research context, given its severe impact from COVID-19. Utilizing an extensive dataset from Yelp, encompassing ten U.S. cities varying in sizes and geolocations, our findings indicate that both geographic and social influences exert significant direct effects on resilience. Additionally, these effects exhibit considerable variations contingent upon product attributes, customer characteristics, and geographic factors. Theoretically, we are the first to substantiate the role of social contagion theory in examining resilience, enriching our understanding of the social network mechanism of behavioral contagion among customers during the COVID-19 pandemic. We also offer valuable practical implications for various stakeholders in supporting their management strategies and decision-making in developing effective plans and preparations, minimizing adverse impacts, and ensuring sustainability in the face of future disruptions.

史无前例的 COVID-19 导致众多企业倒闭,尤其是旅游业和酒店业。尽管有关复原力的研究方兴未艾,但很少有研究采用理论视角,特别是从社会网络的角度进行研究。此外,大多数现有的复原力研究都没有明确考虑旅游业和酒店业产品固有的地理可达性前提条件。在本研究中,我们利用社会传染理论,提出了一个整体研究框架,以研究地理和社会接近性这两个关键的社会传染机制对企业恢复力的影响。我们还深入研究了调节因素,以确定在哪些条件下传染效应会被放大或减弱。为了验证我们的理论模型,我们选择了餐饮业作为研究背景,因为该行业受到 COVID-19 的严重影响。我们的研究结果表明,地理和社会影响对复原力都有显著的直接影响。此外,这些影响因产品属性、客户特征和地理因素的不同而表现出相当大的差异。从理论上讲,我们首次证实了社会传染理论在研究抗灾能力中的作用,丰富了我们对 COVID-19 大流行期间顾客行为传染的社会网络机制的理解。我们还为各利益相关方提供了宝贵的实践启示,帮助他们制定管理策略和决策,以制定有效的计划和准备工作,最大限度地减少不利影响,并确保在面对未来干扰时的可持续性。
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引用次数: 0
The effect of different types of comparative reviews on product sales 不同类型的比较性评论对产品销售的影响
IF 6.7 1区 计算机科学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2024-07-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.dss.2024.114287
Yuzhuo Li , Min Zhang , G. Alan Wang , Ning Zhang

Comparative online reviews have evolved into a vital instrument for consumers in decision-making, offering valuable comparisons and available options. Drawing on the insights from the linguistic category model (LCM) and elaboration likelihood model (ELM), we propose that different types (attribute-based and experience-based) of comparative reviews can affect consumers' perceived credibility of online reviews, thus impacting product sales. We analyzed 136,260 reviews on e-commerce platforms to assess these effects and introduced review valence as a boundary condition. Utilizing a combination of pattern discovery, supervised learning techniques, and manual coding, we identified attribute-based and experience-based comparative reviews and subsequently classified them based on positive, neutral, and negative valence. Subsequently, we took the product sales as the dependent variable and applied a two-way fixed effects model. The results indicate that attribute-based comparative reviews exert a more favorable influence on product sales compared to experience-based ones. Additionally, positive comparative reviews, irrespective of their attribute-based or experience-based nature, demonstrate a greater impact than regular positive reviews. However, negative and neutral comparative reviews, only when associated with attribute-based information, exhibit a significant effect. The results highlight the value of different types of comparative reviews and illuminate the moderating role of review valence. Our findings offer new insights and practical guidance for marketers and e-commerce platforms in capitalizing on the important influence of comparative reviews and enhancing the presentation of online reviews.

在线比较评论已发展成为消费者决策的重要工具,为消费者提供了有价值的比较和可选方案。借鉴语言类别模型(LCM)和阐述可能性模型(ELM)的观点,我们提出不同类型(基于属性和基于经验)的比较性评论会影响消费者对在线评论可信度的感知,从而影响产品销售。为了评估这些影响,我们分析了电子商务平台上的 136260 条评论,并引入了评论价值作为边界条件。利用模式发现、监督学习技术和人工编码相结合的方法,我们识别了基于属性和基于经验的比较评论,并根据正面、中性和负面评价对它们进行了分类。随后,我们将产品销量作为因变量,并应用了双向固定效应模型。结果表明,与基于经验的比较性评论相比,基于属性的比较性评论对产品销售产生了更有利的影响。此外,正面的比较性评论,不管是基于属性的还是基于经验的,都比普通的正面评论有更大的影响。然而,负面和中性比较评论只有在与基于属性的信息相关联时,才会表现出显著的影响。这些结果凸显了不同类型比较性评论的价值,并阐明了评论价值的调节作用。我们的研究结果为市场营销人员和电子商务平台提供了新的见解和实用指导,帮助他们利用比较评论的重要影响并增强在线评论的展示效果。
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引用次数: 0
Live streaming channel recommendation based on viewers' interaction behavior: A hypergraph approach 基于观众互动行为的直播流媒体频道推荐:超图方法
IF 6.7 1区 计算机科学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.dss.2024.114272

Live streaming has become increasingly popular in recent years. Viewers of live streaming channels can interact with live streamers through various behaviors, such as sending virtual gifts and Danmaku. It is very critical to accurately model such viewers' behaviors, which reflect their interest, for recommending live streaming channels. However, existing studies on live streaming channel recommendation usually model viewers' interaction behaviors through traditional graphs where an edge only connects two nodes, which cannot capture interaction relationships between multi-viewers and multi-channels. In this study, we propose a novel approach to live streaming recommendation based on Viewers' Interaction Behavior Modeled by Hypergraphs (VIBM-Hyper). Specifically, VIBM-Hyper first constructs two hypergraphs to model viewers' interaction behaviors, including a channel-oriented behavior hypergraph and a viewer-oriented behavior hypergraph. Then, it employs a hypergraph convolution technique to learn the representations of viewers and live streaming channels, respectively, which are finally used to predict a viewer's preference for a certain live streaming channel. We analyzed viewers' multiple types of behaviors in live streaming channels and conducted empirical evaluation to investigate the effectiveness of VIBM-Hyper with two real-world datasets. The evaluation results demonstrate its superior performance in live streaming channel recommendation in comparison to the state-of-the-art methods.

近年来,直播越来越受欢迎。直播频道的观众可以通过各种行为与直播者互动,如发送虚拟礼物和丹幕。准确模拟这些反映观众兴趣的行为对于推荐直播流媒体频道至关重要。然而,现有关于直播流媒体频道推荐的研究通常通过传统的图对观众的互动行为进行建模,图中的边仅连接两个节点,无法捕捉多观众和多频道之间的互动关系。在本研究中,我们提出了一种基于超图(VIBM-Hyper)的观众交互行为模型的新型直播流媒体推荐方法。具体来说,VIBM-Hyper 首先构建了两个超图来模拟观众的交互行为,包括一个面向频道的行为超图和一个面向观众的行为超图。然后,它采用超图卷积技术分别学习观众和直播流媒体频道的表征,最后用于预测观众对某个直播流媒体频道的偏好。我们分析了观众在直播流媒体频道中的多种行为类型,并通过两个真实世界数据集进行了实证评估,以研究 VIBM-Hyper 的有效性。评估结果表明,与最先进的方法相比,VIBM-Hyper 在直播流媒体频道推荐方面表现出色。
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引用次数: 0
MEMF: Multi-entity multimodal fusion framework for sales prediction in live streaming commerce MEMF:用于直播流商业销售预测的多实体多模态融合框架
IF 6.7 1区 计算机科学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2024-06-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.dss.2024.114277
Guang Xu , Ming Ren , Zhenhua Wang , Guozhi Li

Live streaming commerce thrives with a rich tapestry of multimodal information that intertwines with various entities, including the anchor, the commodities, and the live streaming environment. Despite the wealth of data at hand, the synthesis and analysis of this information to predict sales remains a significant challenge. This study introduces a framework for multi-entity multimodal fusion, which is characterized by the effective synthesis of multimodal data and its prioritization of entity-level fusion, thereby providing a comprehensive feature representation for improving predictive performance. In addressing the multimodal data associated with a diverse range of products, our framework improves the Transformer architecture to initially capture the intra-product modal features and subsequently integrate the inter-product features. Data experiments are conducted on a real-world dataset from Taobao Live. The framework outperforms both traditional machine learning methods and state-of-the-art multimodal fusion methods, which affirms its value as a robust decision-support tool for sales prediction, enabling more accurate pre-event predictions and strategic planning. We also examine the impact of different types of information in accurate sales prediction. It is found that harnessing a comprehensive suite of data leads to optimal performance across all evaluation metrics. Commodity-related data is primary factor in determining the prediction accuracy, followed by video data and streaming room-related data, providing insights regarding the resource allocation for collecting and analyzing multimodal data from live streaming platforms.

直播流媒体商业的蓬勃发展离不开丰富的多模式信息,这些信息与各种实体交织在一起,包括主播、商品和直播流媒体环境。尽管手头有丰富的数据,但如何综合和分析这些信息以预测销售额仍是一项重大挑战。本研究介绍了一种多实体多模态融合框架,其特点是有效综合多模态数据,并优先考虑实体级融合,从而为提高预测性能提供全面的特征表示。在处理与各种产品相关的多模态数据时,我们的框架改进了 Transformer 架构,首先捕捉产品内模态特征,然后整合产品间特征。我们在淘宝直播的真实数据集上进行了数据实验。该框架的表现优于传统的机器学习方法和最先进的多模态融合方法,这肯定了它作为销售预测的强大决策支持工具的价值,使我们能够进行更准确的事前预测和战略规划。我们还研究了不同类型的信息对准确销售预测的影响。结果发现,利用一套全面的数据可以在所有评估指标中获得最佳性能。商品相关数据是决定预测准确性的首要因素,其次是视频数据和流媒体室相关数据,这为收集和分析直播流媒体平台多模态数据的资源分配提供了启示。
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引用次数: 0
Explainable AI for enhanced decision-making 可解释的人工智能促进决策
IF 6.7 1区 计算机科学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2024-06-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.dss.2024.114276
Kristof Coussement , Mohammad Zoynul Abedin , Mathias Kraus , Sebastián Maldonado , Kazim Topuz

This paper contextualizes explainable artificial intelligence (AI) for enhanced decision-making and serves as an editorial for the corresponding special issue. AI is defined as the development of computer systems that are able to perform tasks that normally require human intelligence by understanding, processing, and analyzing large amounts of data. AI has been a dominant domain for several decades in the information systems (IS) literature. To this end, we define explainable AI (XAI) as the process that allows one to understand how an AI system decides, predicts, and performs its operations. First, we contextualize its current role for improved business decision-making. Second, we discuss three underlying dimensions of XAI that serve as broader innovation grounds to make better and more informed decisions, i.e., data, method, and application. For each of the contributing papers in this special issue, we describe their major contributions to the field of XAI for decision making. In conclusion, this paper further presents a future research agenda for IS researchers in the XAI field.

本文介绍了可解释的人工智能(AI)在增强决策方面的应用,并为相应的特刊撰写了社论。人工智能的定义是开发能够通过理解、处理和分析大量数据来完成通常需要人类智能才能完成的任务的计算机系统。几十年来,人工智能一直是信息系统(IS)文献中的主导领域。为此,我们将可解释的人工智能(XAI)定义为能够理解人工智能系统如何决定、预测和执行操作的过程。首先,我们将其当前在改善商业决策方面的作用背景化。其次,我们讨论了 XAI 的三个基本维度,即数据、方法和应用,这三个维度是做出更好、更明智决策的更广泛的创新基础。对于本特刊中的每篇投稿论文,我们都将介绍其在 XAI 决策领域的主要贡献。最后,本文进一步提出了 IS 研究人员在 XAI 领域的未来研究议程。
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引用次数: 0
The faster or richer the response, the better performance? An empirical analysis of online healthcare platforms from a competitive perspective 响应越快或越丰富,性能就越好?从竞争角度对在线医疗保健平台进行实证分析
IF 6.7 1区 计算机科学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2024-06-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.dss.2024.114274
Haoyu Ren , Liuan Wang , Junjie Wu

The emergence of online healthcare platforms has changed the competitive environment among physicians. However, little is known about how physicians can improve their performance in this new environment. Platforms also face challenges in comprehending the competitive mechanisms among physicians, which might hinder them from formulating strategic managerial decisions that foster sustained growth. In this light, we extract medical service-related information from physicians' response behavioral data on a prominent healthcare platform, and empirically investigate the factors affecting physicians' online performance from a competitive perspective as well as the gender differences in these effects. The results indicate that physicians' responses significantly impact their online performance, revealing a competitive relationship between physicians and their colleagues in the same department. Specifically, a fast response time and informative responses are positively correlated with the focal physician's performance, whereas colleagues' informative responses negatively impact the focal physician's performance, and this relationship is mediated by the focal physician's response informativeness. Nevertheless, there is no significant correlation between colleagues' response time and the focal physician's performance. The results also unveil that gender moderates the effect of response informativeness on the focal physician's performance. Specifically, colleagues' response informativeness has a more significant impact on male physicians' performance than on female physicians' performance, suggesting a greater propensity for competition among male physicians. Our findings could offer decision support for enhancing physician performance and healthcare platform management.

在线医疗保健平台的出现改变了医生之间的竞争环境。然而,人们对医生如何在这一新环境中提高绩效却知之甚少。平台在理解医生之间的竞争机制方面也面临挑战,这可能会阻碍他们制定促进持续增长的战略管理决策。有鉴于此,我们从医生在某知名医疗平台上的回复行为数据中提取了与医疗服务相关的信息,并从竞争角度实证研究了影响医生在线绩效的因素以及这些影响的性别差异。结果表明,医生的回复对其在线表现有显著影响,揭示了医生与同科室同事之间的竞争关系。具体来说,快速响应时间和信息量大的回复与焦点医生的绩效呈正相关,而同事信息量大的回复则对焦点医生的绩效产生负面影响,这种关系是以焦点医生的回复信息量为中介的。然而,同事的反应时间与焦点医生的绩效之间没有明显的相关性。研究结果还揭示了性别会调节回复信息度对焦点医生绩效的影响。具体来说,同事的回复信息度对男性医生绩效的影响比对女性医生绩效的影响更显著,这表明男性医生更倾向于竞争。我们的研究结果可为提高医生绩效和医疗平台管理提供决策支持。
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引用次数: 0
How transparency affects algorithmic advice utilization: The mediating roles of trusting beliefs 透明度如何影响算法建议的使用:信任信念的中介作用
IF 6.7 1区 计算机科学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2024-06-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.dss.2024.114273
Xianzhang Ning , Yaobin Lu , Weimo Li , Sumeet Gupta

Although algorithms are increasingly used to support professional tasks and routine decision-making, their opaque nature invites resistance and results in suboptimal use of their advice. Scholars argue for transparency to enhance the acceptability of algorithmic advice. However, current research is limited in understanding how improved transparency enhances the use of algorithmic advice, such as the differences among various aspects of transparency and the underlying mechanism. In this paper, we investigate whether and how different aspects of algorithmic transparency (performance, process, and purpose) enhance the use of algorithmic advice. Drawing on the knowledge-based trust perspective, we examine the mediating roles of trusting beliefs in the relationships between transparency and the use of algorithmic advice. Using the “judge-advisor system” paradigm, we conduct a 2 × 2 × 2 experiment to manipulate the three aspects of transparency and examine their effects on the use of algorithmic advice. We find that performance and process transparency promote the use of algorithmic advice. However, the effect of process transparency gets attenuated when purpose transparency is high. Purpose transparency is only useful when process transparency is low. We also find that while all three aspects of transparency facilitate different trusting beliefs, only competence belief significantly promotes the use of algorithmic advice. It also fully mediates the facilitating effects of performance and process transparency. This study contributes to the emerging research on algorithmic decision support by empirically investigating the effects of transparency on the use of algorithmic advice and identifying the underlying mechanism. The findings also provide practical guidance on how to promote the acceptance of algorithmic advice that is valuable to both individual users and practitioners.

虽然算法越来越多地被用于支持专业任务和常规决策,但其不透明的性质招致了抵制,导致算法建议的使用效果不理想。学者们主张通过提高透明度来增强算法建议的可接受性。然而,目前的研究在理解提高透明度如何促进算法建议的使用方面还很有限,例如透明度各方面的差异和内在机制。在本文中,我们研究了算法透明度的不同方面(性能、过程和目的)是否以及如何提高算法建议的使用率。借鉴基于知识的信任视角,我们研究了信任信念在透明度与算法建议使用之间关系中的中介作用。利用 "法官-顾问系统 "范式,我们进行了一个 2 × 2 × 2 实验,操纵透明度的三个方面,并考察它们对算法建议使用的影响。我们发现,绩效透明和流程透明会促进算法建议的使用。然而,当目的透明度较高时,过程透明度的影响就会减弱。只有当过程透明度较低时,目的透明度才有用。我们还发现,虽然所有三个方面的透明度都能促进不同的信任信念,但只有能力信念能显著促进算法建议的使用。能力信念还能完全调节绩效和流程透明度的促进作用。本研究通过实证调查透明度对算法建议使用的影响并确定其潜在机制,为算法决策支持的新兴研究做出了贡献。研究结果还就如何促进算法建议的接受度提供了实用指导,这对个人用户和从业人员都很有价值。
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引用次数: 0
Understand your shady neighborhood: An approach for detecting and investigating hacker communities 了解你的黑客社区检测和调查黑客社区的方法
IF 6.7 1区 计算机科学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2024-06-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.dss.2024.114271
Dalyapraz Manatova , Charles DeVries , Sagar Samtani

Cyber threat intelligence (CTI) researchers strive to uncover collaborations and emerging techniques within hacker networks. This study proposes an empirical approach to detect communities within hacker forums for CTI purposes. Eighteen algorithms are systematically evaluated, including state-of-the-art and benchmark methods for identifying overlapping and disjoint groups. Using discussions from five prominent English hacker forums, a comparative analysis examines the influence of the algorithms’ theoretical foundations on community detection. Since ground truths are unattainable for such networks, the study utilizes a multi-metric strategy, incorporating modularity, coverage, performance, and a newly introduced quality measure, Triplet Hub Potential, which quantifies the presence of influential hubs. The findings reveal that while modularity optimization algorithms such as Leiden and Louvain deliver consistent results, neighbor-based expanding techniques tend to provide superior performance. In particular, the Expansion algorithm stood out by uncovering granular hierarchical community structures. The ability to investigate these intimacies is helpful for CTI researchers. Ultimately, we suggest an approach to investigate hacker forums using community detection methods and encourage the future development of algorithms tailored to expose nuances within hacker networks.

网络威胁情报(CTI)研究人员致力于发现黑客网络中的合作关系和新兴技术。本研究提出了一种实证方法,用于检测黑客论坛中的社区,以达到 CTI 的目的。对 18 种算法进行了系统评估,包括用于识别重叠群体和脱节群体的最先进方法和基准方法。通过对五个著名的英语黑客论坛的讨论进行比较分析,研究了算法的理论基础对社区检测的影响。由于此类网络无法获得基本事实,因此研究采用了多指标策略,包括模块化、覆盖率、性能以及新引入的质量指标--三重中心潜能(Triplet Hub Potential),该指标可量化有影响力的中心的存在。研究结果表明,虽然莱顿和卢万等模块化优化算法能提供一致的结果,但基于邻居的扩展技术往往能提供更优越的性能。特别是,扩展算法在发现细粒度分层社区结构方面表现突出。研究这些亲密关系的能力对 CTI 研究人员很有帮助。最终,我们提出了一种使用社区检测方法调查黑客论坛的方法,并鼓励今后开发专门用于揭示黑客网络内部细微差别的算法。
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引用次数: 0
An adaptive simulation based decision support approach to respond risk propagation in new product development projects 在新产品开发项目中应对风险传播的自适应模拟决策支持方法
IF 6.7 1区 计算机科学 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2024-06-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.dss.2024.114270
Shanshan Liu, Ronggui Ding, Lei Wang

Developing new products by multiple stakeholders is inclined to project delays and even failures due to complex risk propagation, calling for accurate predictions of varying risk states and stakeholders' potential response actions. This study proposes an adaptive simulation-based decision support approach, starting with an adaptive simulation model capable of generating future intervention actions on risk propagation by mimicking stakeholders' risk response decisions. Accordingly, the approach tailors a genetic algorithm to solve the proposed simulation optimization problem and produce a combination of response actions that optimally block risk propagation at the current stage. To control dynamic propagations timely, this approach allows managers to adjust risk control resources in line with the latest risk states, and become accessible to managers by developing a graphical user interface. The application to a real project enables the validation of the usefulness and practicality of the approach.

由于复杂的风险传播,多个利益相关者开发新产品的过程容易导致项目延迟甚至失败,这就要求对不同的风险状态和利益相关者的潜在应对行动进行准确预测。本研究提出了一种基于自适应仿真的决策支持方法,首先建立一个自适应仿真模型,该模型能够通过模仿利益相关者的风险应对决策,生成对风险传播的未来干预行动。因此,该方法采用遗传算法来解决提出的仿真优化问题,并生成可在当前阶段以最佳方式阻止风险传播的应对行动组合。为了及时控制动态传播,该方法允许管理人员根据最新的风险状态调整风险控制资源,并通过开发图形用户界面使管理人员易于使用。在实际项目中的应用验证了该方法的实用性和可行性。
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引用次数: 0
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Decision Support Systems
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