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How much are Canadians willing to pay for clean surface and ground water? A meta-analysis of the Canadian non-market valuation literature 加拿大人愿意为清洁地表水和地下水支付多少费用?加拿大非市场估价文献的荟萃分析
IF 1.7 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2021-09-28 DOI: 10.1080/07011784.2021.1973568
R. Brouwer, Rute Pinto
Abstract Three decades of non-market water quality valuation (NMWQV) studies in Canada are analyzed to generate a generic benefits transfer function. Contrary to the large valuation literature focusing on water and wilderness-based recreation in Canada, the number of studies related to water quality is limited. NMWQV studies lack a common design, including consistent adherence to a Canada-specific water quality ladder (WQL). Despite the high degree of data heterogeneity, values extracted from the literature show an increasing step function when relating them to the Resources for the Future WQL. Meta-regression models (MRMs) explain a large share of the variation in value estimates based on the type of water resources, population and methodological characteristics. Baseline water quality and the size of the water quality change are significant determinants of the estimated non-market values. With a relative mean prediction error of no more than 20 percent, the predictive power of the estimated MRMs is high. As such, they are an important step forward in the development of a policy-relevant water quality valuation model. However, there is a clear need for the development of more coherent non-market valuation guidelines in the Canadian water context.
摘要对加拿大三十年来的非市场水质评估(NMWQV)研究进行了分析,以生成一个通用的利益传递函数。与加拿大关注水和荒野娱乐的大量评估文献相反,与水质相关的研究数量有限。NMWQV研究缺乏共同的设计,包括一致遵守加拿大特定的水质阶梯(WQL)。尽管数据具有高度的异质性,但从文献中提取的值在将其与未来WQL的资源联系起来时显示出递增的阶跃函数。元回归模型(MRM)解释了基于水资源类型、人口和方法特征的价值估计的很大一部分变化。基线水质和水质变化的大小是估计非市场价值的重要决定因素。在相对平均预测误差不超过20%的情况下,估计的MRM的预测能力很高。因此,它们是在制定与政策相关的水质评估模型方面迈出的重要一步。然而,显然需要在加拿大的水资源背景下制定更加连贯的非市场估价准则。
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引用次数: 3
Testing household preferences for the importance of the frequency and severity of water quality impairment 测试家庭偏好对水质受损频率和严重程度的重要性
IF 1.7 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1080/07011784.2021.1957718
S. Renzetti, J. I. Price, D. Dupont, A. Mazumder
Abstract Water quality indices are employed by governments largely as a means of communicating the multifaceted nature of water quality and aquatic ecosystem health to the general public. Given the complexity of responsibility for oversight of freshwater quality in Canada, the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment (CCME) has developed an index based on the severity, frequency, and scope of water impairment. An important feature, and potential shortcoming, of this approach is that the three attributes of water quality are weighted equally. If households, however, weight these attributes differently, then the index’s ability to convey information to the public may be weakened. This issue is examined by eliciting household preferences for a hypothetical water quality protection program that reduces the severity and frequency of impairment using a discrete choice experiment (issues of scope are not included in the analysis). Latent class and mixed logit models are estimated. The latent class models, which outperform the mixed logit, indicate the presence of two preference classes that hold dramatically different preferences for benefits of the protection program. While one group of respondents is unresponsive to the severity and frequency of impairment, there is evidence that the other group may assign different weights to the attributes. These findings suggest the CCME index could convey different information to the two groups.
水质指数主要被政府用作向公众传达水质和水生生态系统健康的多面性的手段。鉴于加拿大监督淡水质量的责任的复杂性,加拿大环境部长理事会(CCME)根据水损害的严重程度、频率和范围制定了一个指数。这种方法的一个重要特征和潜在缺点是,水质的三个属性的权重是相等的。然而,如果家庭对这些属性的权重不同,那么该指数向公众传达信息的能力可能会减弱。这个问题是通过引出家庭对假设的水质保护计划的偏好来检验的,该计划使用离散选择实验来降低损害的严重性和频率(范围问题不包括在分析中)。估计潜在类和混合logit模型。潜类模型的表现优于混合逻辑,表明存在两个偏好类,它们对保护计划的好处有截然不同的偏好。虽然一组受访者对损害的严重程度和频率没有反应,但有证据表明,另一组可能会对这些属性赋予不同的权重。这些发现表明CCME指数可以向两组传递不同的信息。
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引用次数: 1
Comparative analysis of local and large-scale approaches to floodplain mapping: a case study of the Chaudière River 局部与大规模洪泛区制图方法的比较分析:以chaudi<e:1>河为例
IF 1.7 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2021-08-30 DOI: 10.1080/07011784.2021.1961610
M. A. Bessar, G. Choné, A. Lavoie, T. Buffin‐Bélanger, P. Biron, P. Matte, F. Anctil
Abstract Floods are among natural disasters that increasingly threaten society, especially with current and future climate change trends. Several tools have been developed to help planners manage the risks associated to flooding, including the mapping of flood-prone areas, but one of the major challenges is still the availability of detailed data, particularly bathymetry. This manuscript compares two modeling approaches to produce flood maps. An innovative large-scale approach that, without bathymetric data, estimates by inverse modeling the bed section for a given flow and a given roughness coefficient through 1 D/2D hydraulic modeling (LISFLOOD-FP). And a local approach, with a detailed coupled 1 D/2D hydraulic model (HEC-RAS) that uses all available information at the bed and floodplain (LiDAR and bathymetry). Both implementations revealed good performance values for flood peak levels as well as excellent fit indices in describing the areal extent of flooding. As expected, the local approach is more accurate, but the results of the large-scale approach are very promising especially for areas lacking bathymetric data and for large-scale governmental programs.
洪水是日益威胁社会的自然灾害之一,特别是在当前和未来气候变化的趋势下。目前已经开发了一些工具来帮助规划者管理与洪水相关的风险,包括绘制洪水易发地区的地图,但主要挑战之一仍然是详细数据的可用性,特别是水深测量。本文比较了两种绘制洪水地图的建模方法。这是一种创新的大规模方法,在没有水深数据的情况下,通过1 D/2D水力建模(LISFLOOD-FP),通过对给定流量和给定粗糙度系数的床段进行逆建模来估计。还有一种局部方法,采用详细的1 D/2D耦合水力模型(HEC-RAS),利用河床和洪泛区的所有可用信息(激光雷达和测深)。两种实现都显示了良好的洪峰水位性能值,以及描述洪水面积范围的优秀拟合指数。正如预期的那样,局部方法更准确,但大规模方法的结果非常有希望,特别是在缺乏水深数据和大规模政府计划的地区。
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引用次数: 2
Baseline geographic information on wildfire-watershed risk in Canada: needs, gaps, and opportunities 加拿大野火流域风险的基线地理信息:需求、差距和机遇
IF 1.7 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2021-07-16 DOI: 10.1080/07011784.2022.2032367
F. Robinne, C. Paquette, D. Hallema, K. Bladon, M. Parisien
As the pressures on water supply from shifting forest disturbance regimes continue to escalate, researchers are being asked to answer increasingly complex questions. However, many questions in wildfire-watershed risk (WWR) research remained unaddressed due to a paucity of relevant datasets. There are, indeed, many fundamental processes we do not understand that require additional data collection to develop risk management frameworks. As such, WWR researchers and managers face a paradox in their need to address critical questions important for the sustainability of socio-hydrological systems while dealing with incomplete information. In many cases, this leads to valuable research ideas being discarded on the account of limited data availability. However, imperfect, incomplete, or limited data should not deter researchers and managers from performing analyses to assess risk. In fact, such analyses improve the research benefit-to-cost ratio of existing data, help unravel gaps in data sources, enable generation of new hypotheses, and highlight where data availability and openness can be improved. If we do not use what we have, how can we know what we need? This issue is of particular interest in Canada, where baseline WWR information for the entire country is generally missing, despite growing concerns about water security in the face of a shifting wildfire regimes. In this commentary, we (a) identify several relevant open geospatial datasets, (b) illustrate how these datasets can be leveraged to produce simple yet relevant risk information, (c) identify some high priority data gaps that require immediate attention, and (d) discuss future avenues towards the creation of baseline Pan-Canadian WWR information.
随着不断变化的森林干扰制度对供水的压力不断升级,研究人员被要求回答越来越复杂的问题。然而,由于缺乏相关数据集,野火流域风险(WWR)研究中的许多问题仍未得到解决。事实上,有许多我们不了解的基本过程需要额外的数据收集来制定风险管理框架。因此,WWR的研究人员和管理人员面临着一个悖论,他们需要在处理不完整信息的同时解决对社会水文系统可持续性至关重要的关键问题。在许多情况下,这导致有价值的研究想法被丢弃,因为有限的数据可用性。然而,不完善、不完整或有限的数据不应阻止研究人员和管理人员进行分析以评估风险。事实上,这种分析提高了现有数据的研究成本效益比,有助于解开数据源中的差距,使新假设得以产生,并突出了数据可用性和开放性可以改进的地方。如果我们不使用我们所拥有的,我们怎么知道我们需要什么?这个问题在加拿大尤其引人关注,尽管面对不断变化的野火政权,人们对水安全的担忧日益增加,但整个国家的基线WWR信息普遍缺失。在这篇评论中,我们(a)确定了几个相关的开放地理空间数据集,(b)说明了如何利用这些数据集来产生简单但相关的风险信息,(c)确定了一些需要立即关注的高优先级数据缺口,(d)讨论了创建泛加拿大WWR基线信息的未来途径。
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引用次数: 4
A multi-century July-August streamflow reconstruction of Metro Vancouver's water supply contribution from the Capilano and Seymour watersheds in southwestern British Columbia, Canada 加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省西南部Capilano和Seymour流域对大温哥华供水贡献的多世纪7 - 8月水流重建
IF 1.7 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2021-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/07011784.2021.1931458
Bryan J. Mood, Dan Smith
Abstract Recent summer water shortages in Metro Vancouver are the result of unanticipated changes in the timing of regional snowmelt and rising summer temperatures. Continuing shortfalls over the next century would pose a significant challenge for water supply management decisions. To understand the magnitude of recent drought events in the context of those that happened in the past, we developed a tree-ring reconstruction of regionalised July–August streamflow to 1711 for Metro Vancouver’s Capilano and Seymour watersheds. We used the annual tree-ring widths of mountain hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana (Bong.) Carr.) and Pacific silver fir (Abies amabilis Douglas ex J. Forbes) trees exhibiting a relationship to the seasonal snowpack as proxies for the nival component of streamflow in a regression model. The model indicates that more multi-year, below-average, streamflow departures occurred during the instrumental record than over the 1711–1992 reconstruction period. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation was significantly (p < 0.05) associated with both reconstructed and measured streamflow for the study region. Similarly, seasonal Pacific Decadal Oscillation demonstrated strong statistical relationships (p < 0.05) with measured streamflow. Over the duration of the reconstruction, significant decadal and multi-decadal periodicities were also observed. The research places the Metro Vancouver water supply in a longer-term context than was previously possible and offers a basis for advancing water supply planning decisions in the context of a rapidly changing climate. RÉSUMÉ Les récentes pénuries d'eau estivales dans la région métropolitaine de Vancouver sont le résultat de changements imprévus dans le moment de la fonte des neiges dans la région et de la hausse des températures estivales. Les insuffisances persistantes au cours du siècle prochain poseraient un grand défi pour les décisions de gestion de l'approvisionnement en eau. Pour comprendre l’ampleur des récentes sécheresses dans le contexte de celles du passé, nous avons développé une reconstitution dendrochronologique de l’écoulement fluvial de juillet à août jusqu'en 1711, régionalisé pour les bassins hydrographiques Capilano et Seymour de la région métropolitaine de Vancouver. Nous avons utilisé les largeurs annuelles des cernes d'arbres de la pruche subalpine (Tsuga mertensiana (Bong.) Carr.) et du sapin gracieux (Abies amabilis Douglas ex J.Forbes), des arbres qui présentes une relation avec le manteau neigeux saisonnier comme indicateurs de la composante nivale de l'écoulement fluvial dans un modèle de régression. Le modèle indique qu'il y a eu plus de départs d'écoulement fluvial pluriannuels inférieurs à la moyenne pendant l'enregistrement instrumental que pendant la période de reconstruction de 1711 à 1992. L'oscillation australe d’El Niño (ENSO) était significativement (p < 0.05) associée à la fois a l’écoulement fluviale reconstruit et mesuré pour la région d'étude. Similairement, il y avait
温哥华大都会最近的夏季水位下降是区域降雪时间和夏季气温上升的意外变化的结果。下个世纪持续的短缺将给供水管理决策带来重大挑战。为了在过去发生的思想背景下理解最近干旱事件的规模,我们为温哥华地铁的卡皮拉诺和西摩流域开发了1711年7月至8月区域化水流的树圈重建。我们使用了山铁杉(Tsuga mertensiana(Bong.)Carr.)的年轮宽度太平洋银冷杉(冷杉Amabilis Douglas ex J.Forbes)树木与季节性积雪有关系,作为回归模型中流流雪成分的代理。该模型表明,与1711-1992年重建期相比,乐器记录期间发生的流速比平均值以下多多年。厄尔尼诺-南方涛动与研究区域重建和测量的水流显著相关(p<0.05)。类似地,季节性太平洋十年振荡显示了强统计关系(p<0.05)和测量的流量。在重建期间,还观察到显著的十年和多年周期。该研究将温哥华地铁供水置于比以前更为可能的长期背景下,并为在快速变化的气候背景下推进供水规划决策提供了基础。摘要:大温哥华地区最近的夏季缺水是由于该地区融雪时间的意外变化和夏季气温上升。下个世纪持续存在的不足将对供水管理决策构成重大挑战。为了在过去干旱的背景下了解最近干旱的程度,我们开发了1711年7月至8月期间河流流量的树木年代学重建,并对大温哥华地区的卡皮拉诺和西摩流域进行了区域化。我们使用了亚高山铁杉(Tsuga mertensiana(Bong.)Carr.)的年轮宽度。以及优雅的冷杉(冷杉amabilis Douglas ex J.Forbes),这些树木在回归模型中显示出与季节性积雪的关系,作为河流流量的雪成分指标。该模型表明,与1711年至1992年重建期间相比,仪器记录期间的多年流量低于平均水平。厄尔尼诺南方涛动(ENSO)与研究区域的重建和测量流量显著相关(p<0.05)。类似地,季节性太平洋十年振荡(PDO)与测量的河流流量之间存在深刻的统计关系(p<0.05)。在重建过程中,还观察到显著的十年和几十年周期。这项研究将大温哥华地区的供水置于比以前更长期的背景下,并为在快速变化的气候中推进供水规划决策提供了基础。
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引用次数: 3
Ontario conservation authorities – end, evolve, interlude or epiphany? 安大略省保护当局——结束、演变、间歇还是顿悟?
IF 1.7 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2021-06-07 DOI: 10.1080/07011784.2021.1930585
B. Mitchell, D. Shrubsole, N. Watson
Abstract Ontario Conservation Authorities (CAs) were established in 1946 as a partnership between the Ontario provincial government and municipalities. Initially, their purpose was to apply a catchment or watershed approach to provide services and programs to reduce risk from flooding and erosion through an integrated approach to water and land management. In 2021, there are 36 Conservation Authorities. We consider key changes the Ontario Government has initiated or will be initiating related to CAs which are: (1) The relevant provincial Minister will have authority to approve specific development proposals or for an entire class of permits for a specified period of time in areas within CAs, even if the CAs oppose such development because the proposals involve areas vulnerable to flooding or other related hazards; and (2) Applicants for development permits will be able to appeal directly to the Provincial Minister and also the Local Planning Appeal Tribunal (LPAT) if their application is turned down by the Hearing Board of the relevant CA. This commentary describes key issues that have been historically noted as ‘problematic’ for previous and the current Provincial Governments, and shares information and insight on those matters. The conclusion considers whether the changes represent an end, an evolution, an interlude (an intervening period, an opportunity to recalibrate or refocus) or an epiphany (a moment of insight or understanding), or some combination thereof, for the CAs.
摘要安大略省保护局(CA)成立于1946年,是安大略省政府和市政府的合作伙伴。最初,他们的目的是应用集水区或分水岭方法来提供服务和计划,通过水和土地管理的综合方法来降低洪水和侵蚀的风险。2021年,共有36个保护机构。我们认为安大略省政府已经或将要启动的与CA相关的关键变更是:(1)相关省级部长将有权在CA内的特定时间内批准特定的开发提案或整个许可证类别,即使CA反对此类开发,因为提案涉及易受洪水或其他相关危害的地区;和(2)如果相关CA的听证委员会拒绝了开发许可证申请人的申请,则他们可以直接向省部长和地方规划上诉法庭(LPAT)提出上诉。本评论描述了历史上被认为对前任和现任省政府“有问题”的关键问题,并分享有关这些问题的信息和见解。结论考虑了这些变化是否代表着CA的结束、进化、间歇(干预期、重新校准或重新聚焦的机会)或顿悟(洞察或理解的时刻),或其某种组合。
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引用次数: 2
Testing a modified environmental flows framework for a Southern Ontario (Canada) river system: assessing hydrological alteration and management recommendations 测试修改后的南安大略(加拿大)河流系统环境流动框架:评估水文变化和管理建议
IF 1.7 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2021-05-20 DOI: 10.1080/07011784.2021.1924080
David Lembcke, Lance P Aspden, M. Marchildon, S. Murray, B. Ginn
Abstract To date, environmental flow strategies have predominantly been used in cases where a lack of available water has degraded the ecological quality and natural functioning of a river system. In this study, we used environmental flows on an urbanized watershed where flow volumes and flow rates have increased, and large (e.g. 100-year) event return periods become more frequent (∼10 years). Using an environmental flows strategy to model the amount of hydrological alteration, we assessed whether urban development and land cover changes have impacted the flow regime and the ecological health of this watershed. We reconstructed the flow regime at Lovers Creek (Barrie, Ontario, Canada) using three scenarios of urban development: a pre-settlement reference condition with 100% natural cover, mid-development with 6% urban cover and the current condition with 21% urban cover. We found that, in contrast to many other studies, increased urban cover has coincided with increased baseflow volumes, as well as increased volumes in other components of the flow regime. Of particular concern were the increased flow rate and volume of large events such as channel forming and riparian flows; an increased rate of change in event hydrographs, and a much shorter return period of large event storms (e.g. a 100-year event under reference conditions, is now a 10-year event in the current urbanized condition). In this watershed, restoration of flow to the reference condition is not practical; however, using improved stormwater management such as low-impact development technologies and green infrastructure may offset some of the alteration to the flow regime and mitigate future further alterations due to increased urbanization. As Lovers Creek has been identified as a critical coldwater stream habitat with brook trout, the results of this study are being used to assess changes in the ecological health due to increased urban cover, and to develop management strategies that assist in restoring a more natural flow regime in order to better protect both natural habitats and human infrastructure that are vulnerable to flooding caused by more frequent, increased volume flow events.
迄今为止,环境流量策略主要用于缺乏可用水导致河流系统生态质量和自然功能退化的情况。在本研究中,我们使用了一个城市化流域的环境流,该流域的流量和流速都有所增加,大(例如100年)的事件返回周期变得更加频繁(~ 10年)。利用环境流量策略来模拟水文变化的数量,我们评估了城市发展和土地覆盖变化是否影响了该流域的流量状况和生态健康。我们使用三种城市发展情景重建了恋人溪(加拿大安大略省巴里市)的流量状况:定居前参考条件下100%的自然覆盖、开发中期6%的城市覆盖和目前21%的城市覆盖。我们发现,与许多其他研究相反,城市覆盖面积的增加与基流体积的增加以及流态其他组成部分的体积增加相吻合。特别值得关注的是,河道形成和河岸流动等大型事件的流速和体积增加;事件水文变化率增加,大事件风暴的回复期大大缩短(例如,参考条件下的100年事件,在当前城市化条件下现在是10年事件)。在该流域,将流量恢复到参考状态是不现实的;然而,使用改进的雨水管理,如低影响开发技术和绿色基础设施,可能会抵消一些对水流状况的改变,并减轻未来因城市化增加而进一步变化的影响。由于恋人溪已被确定为布鲁克鳟鱼的重要冷水流栖息地,本研究的结果被用于评估由于城市覆盖面积增加而导致的生态健康变化,并制定管理策略,以帮助恢复更自然的流量制度,以便更好地保护自然栖息地和人类基础设施,这些设施容易受到更频繁,更大的流量事件引起的洪水的影响。
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引用次数: 0
List of reviewers for papers received in 2020 2020年收到论文审稿人名单
IF 1.7 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2021-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/07011784.2021.1935720
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引用次数: 0
Technical guidelines for future intensity–duration–frequency curve estimation in Canada 加拿大未来强度-持续时间-频率曲线估计技术指南
IF 1.7 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2021-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/07011784.2021.1909501
A. I. Requena, D. Burn, P. Coulibaly
ABSTRACT Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves need to be reliable to serve as a relevant tool in preventing or reducing potential damage to society. This often requires accounting for the effect of climate change due to evidence of its effect on extreme precipitation. There is a large number of approaches for IDF curve estimation under climate change in the literature; however, a general framework with practical guidelines for facilitating their application by practitioners is not readily available. The aim of the present study is to provide practical guidelines and recommendations for helping federal and provincial agencies, as well as others who might produce practice guidelines, to develop standardized procedures for the estimation of future IDF curves in Canada that can then be used by practitioners in infrastructure design, management and risk assessment. This is done by gathering and summarizing findings in rainfall frequency analysis from the Canadian FloodNet Research Group, under a practically oriented perspective. Technical recommendations are presented within a methodological framework to facilitate understanding; decision-making procedure-specific flowcharts are provided to facilitate their application. The proposed methodological framework is based on the use of pooled frequency analysis for reasonable estimation of extreme rainfall intensities, and on the estimation of gridded relative changes for IDF updates under climate change following different approaches depending on rain gauge network density. In particular, three methods that do not compete against each other but rather are different methodologies to be applied depending on the case study are proposed: pooled estimation of extreme rainfall in Canada (Method I), gridded relative changes in 24-h extreme rainfall intensities in Canada (Method II) and gridded relative changes in 24-h and sub-daily extreme rainfall intensities in regions of Canada with a relatively high station density (Method III).
强度-持续时间-频率(IDF)曲线需要可靠,才能作为预防或减少对社会潜在损害的相关工具。这通常需要考虑气候变化的影响,因为有证据表明气候变化对极端降水的影响。文献中关于气候变化条件下IDF曲线估计的方法较多;然而,一个通用的框架和实用的指导方针,以促进他们的应用的实践者是不容易得到的。本研究的目的是提供实用的指导方针和建议,以帮助联邦和省级机构以及其他可能制定实践指导方针的机构制定标准程序,以估计加拿大未来的IDF曲线,然后可供从业人员用于基础设施设计、管理和风险评估。这是通过收集和总结来自加拿大洪水网研究小组的降雨频率分析结果,以实际为导向的角度来完成的。在方法框架内提出技术建议,以促进理解;提供了具体的决策程序流程图,以方便其应用。建议的方法框架是基于使用混合频率分析来合理估计极端降雨强度,以及基于气候变化下IDF更新的网格化相对变化,根据雨量计网络密度采用不同的方法。特别是,提出了三种不相互竞争的方法,而是根据案例研究采用不同的方法:加拿大极端降雨的汇总估计(方法一),加拿大24小时极端降雨强度的网格化相对变化(方法二),以及加拿大站点密度相对较高地区24小时和次日极端降雨强度的网格化相对变化(方法三)。
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引用次数: 4
Assessment of the ability of the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) to model historical streamflow in watersheds of Western Canada 标准化降水蒸发蒸腾指数(SPEI)模拟加拿大西部流域历史径流的能力评估
IF 1.7 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2021-03-22 DOI: 10.1080/07011784.2021.1896390
Sunil Gurrapu, K. Hodder, D. Sauchyn, Jeannine‐Marie St. Jacques
Abstract Knowledge of present-day spatial and temporal distribution of water resources is vital for successful water management and policies for planned adaptation to climate change. Measured quantities of hydroclimatic variables, including precipitation, evapotranspiration, streamflow, etc., are the primary indicators of water availability, and indices derived using several such primary variables provide a means to express water availability across a range of spatio-temporal scales. In this study, the ability of one such multi-scalar index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), computed at a range of time scales, was examined to see how well it could model historically observed warm season monthly and annual streamflow in 24 natural-flowing watersheds of western Canada. The empirical relationships between the SPEI, computed at 1-, 3-, 6-, 9-, 12- and 24-month time scales, and monthly and annual streamflow were analyzed, showing significant correlations for all watersheds. The time scale of the SPEI with the strongest correlations varied seasonally. Based on these results, SPEI-based principal component regression (PCR) equations were calculated to model warm season monthly and annual historical streamflow. These PCR equations are able to adequately capture historical streamflow in these watersheds. Annual streamflow variability was better captured (mean = 0.46) than monthly variability (mean = 0.30 over March–October). Summer and fall streamflow variability was better captured (mean = 0.42 over June–September) than spring variability (mean = 0.15 over March–April).
摘要了解当今水资源的空间和时间分布对于成功的水管理和有计划地适应气候变化的政策至关重要。水文气候变量的测量量,包括降水量、蒸散量、流量等,是水资源可用性的主要指标,使用几个这样的主要变量得出的指数提供了一种在一系列时空尺度上表达水资源可用度的方法。在这项研究中,检验了一个这样的多标量指数,即在一系列时间尺度上计算的标准化降水蒸发蒸腾指数(SPEI)的能力,以了解它在多大程度上能够模拟加拿大西部24个自然流动流域历史上观测到的暖季月和年径流。分析了在1、3、6、9、12和24个月时间尺度上计算的SPEI与月流量和年流量之间的经验关系,显示出所有流域的显著相关性。相关性最强的SPEI的时间尺度随季节变化。基于这些结果,计算了基于SPEI的主成分回归(PCR)方程,以模拟暖季月度和年度历史流量。这些PCR方程能够充分捕捉这些流域的历史流量。年流量变化率(平均值=0.46)比月变化率(3月至10月平均值=0.30)更好地捕捉到。夏季和秋季的流量变化(6月至9月的平均值=0.42)比春季的变化(3月至4月的平均数=0.15)更好地捕捉到。
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引用次数: 3
期刊
Canadian Water Resources Journal
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