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Temperature extremes and maternal health: differential risks of severe maternal morbidity during heatwaves and coldwaves in North Carolina. 极端温度和孕产妇健康:北卡罗来纳州热浪和寒潮期间严重孕产妇发病率的不同风险。
IF 2.6 3区 地球科学 Q2 BIOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2026-02-02 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-025-03079-z
Sarah E Ulrich, Maggie M Sugg, Manan Roy, Jennifer D Runkle

Objective Climate change is increasingly recognized as a significant public health threat, particularly for vulnerable populations such as pregnant women. This study examines the association between heatwave and coldwave exposure and the risk of severe maternal morbidity (SMM) at delivery in North Carolina from 2011 to 2019. Methods We incorporate a matched analysis design using patient delivery data to identify disparities across the rural-urban continuum, measurements of neighborhood racial and economic inequality, geographic region, and sociodemographic groups (age, race/ethnicity, and insurance type). Results We found elevated risks of SMM associated with heatwave and coldwave exposures We observed an increased risk of severe maternal morbidity (SMM20) at delivery following exposure to heatwave (HW RR: 1.07, CI: 1.02 to 1.11) and coldwave (CW RR: 1.05, CI: 1.02 to 1.09) events during the last week of gestation in the advanced maternal age (> 35) subgroup. For coldwaves, the risk of SMM20 was elevated during the last week of gestation in both the western mountains (RR: 1.10, CI: 1.02 to 1.18) and rural (RR: 1.14, CI: 1.01 to 1.29) regions. Hispanic subgroups exhibited elevated SMM risks, particularly during heatwaves (lag0 to lag7, RR: 1.09, CI: 1.00 to 1.18) and coldwaves (lag0 to lag3, RR: 1.10, CI: 1.01 to 1.19; lag0 to lag7, RR: 1.04, CI: 1.00 to 1.07). Conclusion Our findings suggest that extreme temperature events exacerbate vulnerabilities in specific maternal subpopulations, underscoring the need to account for local context and population characteristics in maternal health assessments. Future research should continue to explore these associations and the role of additional environmental and social factors in SMM risk.

人们日益认识到气候变化是一个重大的公共卫生威胁,特别是对孕妇等弱势群体。本研究调查了2011年至2019年北卡罗来纳州热浪和寒潮暴露与分娩时严重孕产妇发病率(SMM)风险之间的关系。方法采用匹配分析设计,使用患者分娩数据来确定城乡连续体之间的差异,测量邻里种族和经济不平等,地理区域和社会人口群体(年龄,种族/民族和保险类型)。我们观察到,高龄产妇(bbb35)亚组妊娠最后一周暴露于热浪(HW RR: 1.07, CI: 1.02至1.11)和寒潮(CW RR: 1.05, CI: 1.02至1.09)事件后分娩时严重产妇发病率(SMM20)的风险增加。对于寒潮,西部山区(RR: 1.10, CI: 1.02 ~ 1.18)和农村地区(RR: 1.14, CI: 1.01 ~ 1.29)妊娠最后一周SMM20风险升高。西班牙裔亚组表现出较高的SMM风险,特别是在热浪(lag0至lag7, RR: 1.09, CI: 1.00至1.18)和寒潮(lag0至lag3, RR: 1.10, CI: 1.01至1.19;lag0至lag7, RR: 1.04, CI: 1.00至1.07)期间。我们的研究结果表明,极端温度事件加剧了特定孕产妇亚群的脆弱性,强调了在孕产妇健康评估中考虑当地环境和人口特征的必要性。未来的研究应继续探索这些关联以及其他环境和社会因素在SMM风险中的作用。
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引用次数: 0
“You can only keep it so Warm”: temperatures inside tents and coping strategies among people experiencing unsheltered homelessness “你只能保持这么温暖”:帐篷内的温度和无家可归者的应对策略
IF 2.6 3区 地球科学 Q2 BIOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2026-01-30 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-025-03094-0
Seth Thompson, Kelsey N. Ellis, Courtney Cronley, Dimitris A. Herrera, Solange Muñoz

People experiencing unsheltered homelessness (PEUH) are disproportionately vulnerable to extreme temperatures. This study measured overnight exposure to hot and cold temperatures inside tents occupied by PEUH in Knoxville, Tennessee, and examined participants’ coping strategies through semi-structured interviews (n = 20). In winter, many participants successfully warmed their tents by 10 °C or more, by burning materials and using layers of blankets and tarps. Winter warmth required an abundance of resources, making moving to shelters infeasible, as it meant abandoning these hard-won supplies. Tents quickly dropped in temperature after burning materials, forcing inhabitants to decide between sleep or warmth. In summer, tent location was crucial for access to shade and water, but options were limited by policing and displacement. Shady spots helped keep tents from warming beyond the ambient temperature during the day, but participants avoided going inside them due to being uncomfortably hot, likely due to lack of air flow. When they returned to their tent to sleep, trapped heat caused tents to be up to 5 °C warmer than ambient temperatures. Some tent strategies allowed for better ventilation on hot nights. Overall, tents reduced winter cold exposure but exacerbated summer heat exposure. Although not the focus of this study, participants repeatedly described the damaging effects of rain and flooding, which destroyed belongings and deepened feelings of helplessness. These challenges compounded existing precarity, including chronic health conditions and frequent sweeps. Findings underscore the partial effectiveness of behavioral and material coping strategies and show how the criminalization of homelessness and restrictions on movement increase PEUH’s exposure to extreme weather and related health risks.

无庇护无家可归者(PEUH)特别容易受到极端气温的影响。本研究测量了在田纳西州诺克斯维尔PEUH所占据的帐篷内过夜暴露在高温和低温下的情况,并通过半结构化访谈检查了参与者的应对策略(n = 20)。在冬天,许多参与者通过燃烧材料和使用多层毯子和防水布,成功地将帐篷加热了10°C或更高。冬季取暖需要丰富的资源,这使得搬到避难所变得不可行,因为这意味着放弃这些来之不易的物资。在燃烧材料后,帐篷的温度迅速下降,迫使居民在睡觉和取暖之间做出决定。在夏季,帐篷的位置对于获得阴凉和水至关重要,但由于治安和流离失所,选择有限。阴凉的地方有助于防止帐篷白天的温度超过环境温度,但由于缺乏空气流动,参与者避免进入帐篷,因为太热而不舒服。当他们回到帐篷睡觉时,被困住的热量导致帐篷的温度比环境温度高出5摄氏度。一些帐篷策略可以在炎热的夜晚更好地通风。总的来说,帐篷减少了冬季的寒冷暴露,但加剧了夏季的炎热暴露。虽然这不是这项研究的重点,但参与者反复描述了雨水和洪水的破坏性影响,它们摧毁了财物,加深了无助感。这些挑战加剧了现有的不稳定状况,包括慢性健康状况和频繁扫荡。调查结果强调了行为和物质应对策略的部分有效性,并显示了将无家可归定为刑事犯罪和限制行动如何增加了PEUH面临极端天气和相关健康风险的风险。
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引用次数: 0
Comparison of chilling requirements of boreal and temperate tree species in Germany and North America 德国和北美寒带和温带树种的寒害需求比较
IF 2.6 3区 地球科学 Q2 BIOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2026-01-30 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-026-03129-0
Claudia Nanninga, Rebecca A. Montgomery, Annette Menzel, Julia Laube

Chilling is an important cue in the spring phenology of boreal and temperate tree species. It is well established that increased chilling reduces the days to bud break (DTB), but the effectiveness of different cold temperatures for chilling accumulation remains unknown for most species. Depending on this effectiveness, future warmer winters could either reduce or increase chilling accumulation for different tree species, resulting in delayed or advanced bud break. This could alter primary productivity and ecological interactions. We investigated chilling effects on DTB experimentally, using twigs of boreal and temperate tree species in Minnesota, USA. (8 species), and Bavaria, Germany (6 species). We collected twigs and applied artificial chilling in cooling chambers at three different temperatures (-7/-6.5 °C; 1.5/2°C; 4.5/4°C - USA/Germany) and with two different lengths (4/8 weeks), before placing them into forcing chambers at 21 °C/16°C, 16 h photoperiod. We additionally took twigs from the same locations on three different dates and immediately placed them into the forcing chambers. In both experiments, we observed DTB. Both experiments showed that longer chilling exposure reduced DTB and that temperatures below freezing contributed to chilling accumulation. Changing the chilling temperatures had a significant effect on DTB for 8 out of the 14 species. For most species, higher chilling temperatures more effectively reduced DTB than colder temperatures. With few exceptions, species growing in Germany required less chilling, and boreal species broke bud before temperate species. Our study confirms the need to understand species-specific chilling requirements since generalizations seem inappropriate when predicting future leaf out.

寒流是寒带和温带树种春季物候的重要线索。众所周知,增加低温可以缩短芽破期(DTB),但对于大多数物种来说,不同低温对低温积累的有效性尚不清楚。根据这种有效性,未来的暖冬可能会减少或增加不同树种的冷积累,导致发芽延迟或提前。这可能会改变初级生产力和生态相互作用。以美国明尼苏达州的寒带和温带树种为研究对象,研究了低温对DTB的影响。(8种),德国巴伐利亚(6种)。我们收集树枝,在三种不同温度(-7/-6.5°C, 1.5/2°C, 4.5/4°C -美国/德国)和两种不同长度(4/8周)的冷却室中进行人工冷却,然后将它们放入21°C/16°C, 16小时光周期的强制室中。另外,我们在三个不同的日期从同一地点取了树枝,并立即将它们放入强制室。在这两个实验中,我们都观察到了DTB。两个实验都表明,较长的低温暴露减少了DTB,而低于冰点的温度有助于冷积累。改变低温对14种中8种的DTB有显著影响。对于大多数物种来说,较高的低温比较低的低温更有效地减少了DTB。除了少数例外,生长在德国的物种需要较少的冷却,北方物种在温带物种之前发芽。我们的研究证实了了解物种特定的冷却需求的必要性,因为在预测未来的叶子时,泛化似乎是不合适的。
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引用次数: 0
Machine learning based thermal response study of university students under summer outdoor military training 基于机器学习的大学生夏季户外军训热响应研究
IF 2.6 3区 地球科学 Q2 BIOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-025-03087-z
Bin Yang, Luting Bai, Miao Guo, Zhe Li

Visual perception significantly influences human thermal comfort. However, few studies have examined its role in predicting thermal comfort, especially among university students undergoing outdoor military training. This study investigates the outdoor thermal comfort of such students and evaluates the performance of different algorithms and features in predicting their thermal comfort. A questionnaire survey was conducted to investigate the thermal and visual perceptions of freshmen at Tianjin Chengjian University during their military training, yielding 1,754 valid responses. Microclimatic conditions were monitored continuously throughout the study. The collected data were then used to develop thermal comfort prediction models based on eight machine learning algorithms. The results demonstrate that models utilizing the visual dataset achieved superior predictive performance. Notably, the thermal acceptability model attained the highest accuracy of 68.2%. Compared to a model using only PET as an input feature with Logistic Regression, this represents a maximum accuracy increase of 34.1%. Furthermore, Bayesian Optimization enhanced the accuracy of the thermal sensation, acceptability, and comfort models by 2.2%, 0.7%, and 2.4%, respectively. Among all features, the visual comfort vote was identified as the most significant in predicting thermal comfort. This study concludes that visual comfort is a critical factor in predicting the thermal comfort of students during military training. The findings provide a scientific basis for the design and planning of outdoor open spaces.

视觉感知显著影响人体热舒适。然而,很少有研究考察其在预测热舒适方面的作用,特别是在接受户外军事训练的大学生中。本研究调查了这些学生的室外热舒适,并评估了不同算法和特征在预测他们的热舒适方面的表现。采用问卷调查的方法,对天津城建大学大一新生军训期间的热知觉和视觉知觉进行了调查,共收到1754份有效问卷。在整个研究过程中持续监测小气候条件。然后将收集到的数据用于基于八种机器学习算法开发热舒适预测模型。结果表明,利用可视化数据集的模型具有较好的预测性能。值得注意的是,热接受度模型达到了68.2%的最高精度。与仅使用PET作为逻辑回归输入特征的模型相比,这代表了34.1%的最大精度提高。此外,贝叶斯优化将热感觉、可接受性和舒适性模型的准确率分别提高了2.2%、0.7%和2.4%。在所有特征中,视觉舒适投票被认为是预测热舒适最重要的。本研究认为视觉舒适是预测军训学生热舒适的重要因素。研究结果为室外开放空间的设计和规划提供了科学依据。
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引用次数: 0
Short-term and long-term effects of outdoor artificial light at night on reproductive hormones among infertile women from a preconception cohort study 一项孕前队列研究显示,夜间室外人造光对不孕妇女生殖激素的短期和长期影响
IF 2.6 3区 地球科学 Q2 BIOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-025-03085-1
Wenbin Fang, Cun Huang, Ying Tang, Mengdie Li, Yaning Sun, Yanlan Tang, Yinyin Chen, Yawen Cao, Jiqi Fang, Kunjing He, Jing Shen, Zhiyuan Huang, Yan Chen, Lin Tu, Rui Shan, Mohamed Sannoh, Shuangshuang Bao, Peng Zhu, Shanshan Shao, Fangbiao Tao, Guixia Pan

To investigate the effects of Artificial light at night (ALAN) exposure on reproductive hormones and to determine whether there are any lag effects of ALAN exposure on these hormones. There were 971 infertile females available for the current analysis from a prospective cohort. Each female’s baseline address was matched with ALAN imagery. The short-term effects of ALAN on reproductive hormones were analyzed using generalized linear models combined with distributed lag non-linear models. For the long-term effects, the average ALAN level over the 12 months prior to hormone measurement was used as the exposure, and the association between ALAN and reproductive hormones was assessed with multiple linear regression. Short-term exposure to ALAN was associated with increased levels of follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) and progesterone (P), and a decrease in testosterone (T) levels. The reference value for ALAN was set at the 5th percentile (0.61 nW/cm²/sr). At the 95th percentile of ALAN, FSH levels were reduced with a lag of 3 days to 5 days. At the 75th percentile of ALAN, P levels were reduced with a lag of 0 days to 1 day. For the long-term effects of ALAN on reproductive hormones, a reduction in P concentrations was observed. The results suggest that short-term exposure to ALAN disrupts reproductive hormone levels, with the association becoming non-significant as the number of lag days increases.

目的:探讨夜间人造光照射对生殖激素的影响,并确定夜间人造光照射对生殖激素的影响是否存在滞后效应。从前瞻性队列中有971名不孕女性可用于当前分析。每个女性的基线地址都与ALAN图像相匹配。采用广义线性模型结合分布滞后非线性模型分析ALAN对生殖激素的短期影响。对于长期影响,使用激素测量前12个月的平均ALAN水平作为暴露量,并使用多元线性回归评估ALAN与生殖激素之间的关系。短期暴露于ALAN与卵泡刺激素(FSH)和黄体酮(P)水平升高以及睾酮(T)水平降低有关。ALAN的参考值设为第5百分位(0.61 nW/cm²/sr)。在ALAN的第95百分位,FSH水平下降,滞后3天至5天。在ALAN的第75百分位,P水平下降,滞后0天至1天。对于ALAN对生殖激素的长期影响,观察到P浓度降低。结果表明,短期暴露于ALAN会扰乱生殖激素水平,随着滞后天数的增加,这种关联变得不显著。
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引用次数: 0
Phytase as a functional feed additive for poultry: mechanistic insights into thermoregulation and productive performance 植酸酶作为功能性家禽饲料添加剂:对体温调节和生产性能的机理见解。
IF 2.6 3区 地球科学 Q2 BIOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2026-01-28 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-025-03064-6
Lei Zhang, Min Chen, Atique Ahmed Behan, Fethi Ahmet Ozdemir, Jameel Ahmed Buzdar, Muhammad Asif Arain, Kanglei Zhang

Heat stress poses a momentous challenge in poultry production, especially in tropical and subtropical areas, resulting in diminished growth performance, impaired health, and elevated mortality rates. While with the increase in global temperatures, it is imperative to reform effective strategies to alleviate heat stress. Phytase supplementation presents a promising solution, utilizing its enzymatic potential to improve phosphorus availability from plant-derived feed components. This review explores the role of phytase supplementation in alleviating the adverse effects of heat stress in chicken, emphasizing its physiological, metabolic, and immune-modulatory implications. Phytase treatment obviously enhances phosphorus use, facilitates skeletal development, and aids in regulating energy metabolism, essential for maintaining thermoregulation in chicken. Additionally, increased phosphorus bioavailability can enhance bone mineralization, immunological function, and general performance. Besides, phytase supplementation has demonstrated its ability to modulate gut health that can exacerbate heat stress and thus diminishing the hostile effects of heat stress. Recent studies have demonstrated that phytase can beneficially influence physiological parameters, including thermoregulation, feed intake, and water consumption, thereby enhancing poultry welfare during heat stress. This review evaluates the role of phytase in ameliorating adverse impacts of heat stress in chicken and examines the biochemical pathways whereby phytase affects thermal tolerance, including its possible influence on oxidative stress and inflammation.

热应激对家禽生产构成重大挑战,特别是在热带和亚热带地区,导致生长性能下降、健康受损和死亡率升高。然而,随着全球气温的升高,迫切需要改革有效的策略来缓解热应激。植酸酶补充是一种很有前途的解决方案,利用其酶的潜力来提高植物源性饲料成分的磷利用率。本文探讨了补充植酸酶在缓解鸡热应激不良反应中的作用,强调了其生理、代谢和免疫调节作用。植酸酶处理明显提高了磷的利用,促进了骨骼发育,并有助于调节能量代谢,对维持鸡的体温调节至关重要。此外,增加磷的生物利用度可以增强骨矿化,免疫功能和一般性能。此外,植酸酶补充已证明其调节肠道健康的能力,可以加剧热应激,从而减少热应激的不利影响。最近的研究表明,植酸酶可以有益地影响生理参数,包括体温调节、采食量和水分消耗,从而提高热应激家禽的福利。本文综述了植酸酶在改善鸡热应激不利影响中的作用,并探讨了植酸酶影响热耐受性的生化途径,包括其对氧化应激和炎症的可能影响。
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引用次数: 0
Genetic component of thermal stress in Jersey crossbred cows using test day production records and NASA POWER meteorological data 利用试验日产量记录和NASA POWER气象数据分析泽西杂交奶牛热应激的遗传成分。
IF 2.6 3区 地球科学 Q2 BIOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-025-03107-y
Indrajit Gayari, Sylvia Lalhmingmawii, Hasan Baneh, Ajoy Mandal

The present study was undertaken to determine the threshold level of heat stress manifestation on test day milk production traits and to estimate the genetic parameters for effects of heat stress on these traits in Jersey crossbred cows, maintained at the National Dairy Research Institute, Kalyani, West Bengal, India. Test day production traits included milk yield (MY), fat% (FP), fat yield (FY), protein% (PP), protein yield (PY), 4% fat corrected milk yield (4% FCM) and energy corrected milk yield (ECM). The heat stress was assessed by Temperature-Humidity Index (THI), calculated using meteorological information obtained from NASA POWER database. A repeatability test-day reaction norm (RN) model with the heat stress function was used for genetic evaluation of heat stress of animals. The study showed a significant (P < 0.05) decline in all studied traits except for FP per unit increase in heat load in Jersey crossbred cows. Heritability decreased for all the production traits along the THI trajectory, except for PP, for which a U-shaped curve was obtained. However, the permanent environmental effect increased along the THI trajectory with exception in PP, where a decline was observed. The correlations between general additive and heat stress additive were negative for all the production traits and ranged from medium to high (-0.35 to -0.95). The genetic correlation between permanent environmental and heat stress permanent environmental ranged from -0.22 to -0.53. In this study, antagonistic genetic relationship between cows’ ability to produce under thermo-neutral vs. thermo-stress conditions, indicates that cows with higher production potential will tend to have larger decays in production in heat stress condition. Hence, breeding programs should incorporate heat tolerance by using reaction norm models or selecting animals with flatter production declines across rising THI for Jersey crossbred cattle in India.

本研究旨在确定热应激对泽西杂交奶牛试验日产奶量性状影响的阈值水平,并估计热应激对这些性状影响的遗传参数,研究结果保存在印度西孟加拉邦Kalyani国家乳业研究所。试验日生产性状包括产奶量(MY)、脂肪% (FP)、脂肪产量(FY)、蛋白质% (PP)、蛋白质产量(PY)、4%脂肪校正产奶量(4% FCM)和能量校正产奶量(ECM)。热应力通过温度湿度指数(THI)进行评估,该指数是根据NASA POWER数据库的气象信息计算得出的。采用带热应激函数的重复性试验日反应范数(RN)模型对动物热应激进行遗传评价。结果表明,除泽西杂交奶牛单位热负荷FP增加外,其他性状均显著下降(P < 0.05)。除PP性状呈u型曲线外,其他性状沿THI轨迹的遗传力均呈下降趋势。然而,永久环境效应沿着THI轨迹增加,PP例外,在那里观察到下降。普通添加剂与热应激添加剂在所有生产性状上均呈负相关(-0.35 ~ -0.95)。永久环境与热应激永久环境的遗传相关在-0.22 ~ -0.53之间。在本研究中,奶牛在热中性和热应激条件下的生产能力之间存在拮抗遗传关系,表明在热应激条件下,生产潜力较高的奶牛的生产衰退幅度较大。因此,育种计划应通过使用反应规范模型或选择在印度泽西杂交牛THI上升期间产量下降幅度较小的动物来纳入耐热性。
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引用次数: 0
Thermal comfort and influence due to sleep quality in university male hostellers: A case study of warm and humid Jalpaiguri 大学男生宿舍热舒适及其对睡眠质量的影响——以温暖潮湿的杰尔拜古里为例
IF 2.6 3区 地球科学 Q2 BIOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2026-01-26 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-025-03074-4
Samar Thapa, Goutam Kumar Panda, Tushar Shaw, Saikat Das

Understanding how nighttime sleep affects next-day thermal comfort is critical in naturally ventilated (NV) buildings, especially in warm-humid climates where mechanical cooling is absent. This study presents a novel investigation linking previous night’s sleep quality to next-day’s thermal sensation, comfort, and adaptive behavior in NV hostels in eastern India. Field data were collected over two seasons from four NV hostels using ASHRAE Class II measurements and subjective responses, including the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI). Statistical analyses including correlation, multiple regression and probit modeling were used to quantify the relationships between environmental variables, sleep-quality and comfort. Results revealed significant seasonal variation in operative temperature (22.8 °C winter vs. 31.2 °C summer), clothing insulation (0.68 vs. 0.38 clo), PMV (–0.48 vs. +1.83), and TSV (–0.74 vs. +0.69). Poor sleep (PSQI > 5) was associated with up to 1.5 units extreme TSV, and lower satisfaction and acceptance. PMV overpredicted discomfort compared to TSV, reinforcing the limitations of heat-balance models in NV settings. Thermal neutrality shifted seasonally (TnG: 24.2 ~ 29.8 °C). This study provides the first empirical evidence that prior sleep quality significantly influences thermal comfort perception, highlighting the need to integrate sleep dynamics into adaptive comfort frameworks.

了解夜间睡眠如何影响第二天的热舒适对自然通风(NV)建筑至关重要,特别是在缺乏机械冷却的温暖潮湿气候中。本研究提出了一项新颖的调查,将前一晚的睡眠质量与第二天的热感觉、舒适度和适应行为联系起来。实地数据收集了四个NV旅馆在两个季节使用ASHRAE II类测量和主观反应,包括匹兹堡睡眠质量指数(PSQI)。采用相关、多元回归和概率模型等统计分析方法量化环境变量、睡眠质量和舒适度之间的关系。结果显示,手术温度(冬季22.8°C对夏季31.2°C)、衣物绝缘(0.68对0.38 clo)、PMV(-0.48对+1.83)和TSV(-0.74对+0.69)存在显著的季节差异。睡眠质量差(PSQI > 5)与高达1.5单位的极端TSV、较低的满意度和接受度相关。与TSV相比,PMV高估了不适程度,加强了NV环境下热平衡模型的局限性。热中性随季节变化(TnG: 24.2 ~ 29.8°C)。本研究首次提供了经验证据,证明先前的睡眠质量显著影响热舒适感知,强调了将睡眠动力学纳入适应性舒适框架的必要性。
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引用次数: 0
A performance comparison of mobile transect methods for heat and humidity prediction in complex urban environments 移动样带法在复杂城市环境中热湿预报的性能比较。
IF 2.6 3区 地球科学 Q2 BIOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-026-03126-3
Andrew Robinson, Christopher Fuhrmann, Charles Konrad, Olivia M. Davis, Eric A. Kirk, David Parr

Wet Bulb Globe Temperature is a heat stress metric that accounts for air temperature, humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed. While methods of WBGT calculation from standard meteorological variables have been developed, these are often only used at coarse spatial scales or at specific points and overlook the underlying land use and land cover that is vitally important to microclimate development. This is particularly important in cities where the urban heat island has significant and spatially disparate impacts on local climate; some areas warm more than others. To address this gap, easily accessible and standard instrumentation was utilized to gather meteorological and environmental factors relevant to WBGT with common mobile measurement methods: walking, cycling, and driving transects. Machine learning methods are used to model and estimate each component of WBGT at a 10-m resolution using underlying land use and land cover data as inputs. The viability, challenges, accuracy, applications, and benefits of this novel mobile WBGT mapping method are assessed. Results indicate that for a sound UHI mapping campaign, a variety of transects should be used in a dense route network as allowed by the total number of citizen science volunteers and the size of the total study area.

湿球温度是一种热应力度量,包括空气温度、湿度、太阳辐射和风速。虽然已经开发了基于标准气象变量的WBGT计算方法,但这些方法通常仅用于粗空间尺度或特定点,而忽略了对小气候发展至关重要的底层土地利用和土地覆盖。在城市热岛对当地气候具有显著且空间差异的影响的城市中,这一点尤为重要;有些地区比其他地区更温暖。为了解决这一差距,使用了易于获取和标准的仪器来收集与WBGT相关的气象和环境因素,并使用常见的移动测量方法:步行,骑自行车和驾驶横断面。使用机器学习方法以10米分辨率建模和估计WBGT的每个组成部分,使用底层土地利用和土地覆盖数据作为输入。评估了这种新型移动WBGT映射方法的可行性、挑战、准确性、应用和效益。结果表明,对于一个健全的UHI测绘活动,应在公民科学志愿者总数和总研究区域的大小允许的情况下,在密集的路线网络中使用各种样条。
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引用次数: 0
Combining temperate fruit tree cultivars to fit spring phenology models 结合温带果树品种拟合春季物候模型。
IF 2.6 3区 地球科学 Q2 BIOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-025-03068-2
Lars Caspersen, Katja Schiffers, Katherine Jarvis-Shean, Eike Luedeling

Phenological datasets for temperate fruit trees are often short, fragmented and geographically restricted, which hampers the development of cultivar-specific spring phenology models. To address this, we propose a novel calibration approach (“combined-fitting”), which pools observations from several cultivars of the same species, distinguishing between shared and cultivar-specific parameters. This method requires fewer observations per cultivar and allows jointly analyzing cultivars of the same species. We evaluate combined-fitting using the PhenoFlex framework, comparing it to a baseline model and to models that are fitted only with data for single cultivars (“cultivar-fit”). Our analysis is based on flowering data from nine almond, six apricot and six sweet cherry cultivars across Mediterranean (Spain, Morocco, Tunisia) and German climates. The combined-fit model failed to achieve higher prediction accuracy compared to the cultivar-fit and the baseline approach, as evidenced by similar root mean square errors across the data splits and calibration dataset sizes. When comparing the estimated parameters of the chill and heat accumulation submodels, we observed a large variation among cultivars of the same species in the cultivar-fit models. In contrast and by design, the combined-fit yielded only one parameter set for cultivars of the same species. Our findings demonstrate that integrating data from multiple cultivars can yield spring phenology models with high accuracy. Even though the combined-fit approach did not outperform the cultivar-fit approach, combined-fitting offers a practical solution for spring phenology modeling with limited datasets and facilitates comparison across cultivars of the same species.

温带果树物候数据集往往较短、碎片化且地理位置受限,这阻碍了品种特异性春季物候模型的建立。为了解决这个问题,我们提出了一种新的校准方法(“组合拟合”),该方法将来自同一物种的多个栽培品种的观测结果汇总在一起,区分共享参数和栽培特定参数。这种方法对每个品种的观察次数较少,并允许对同一品种的品种进行联合分析。我们使用PhenoFlex框架评估组合拟合,将其与基线模型和仅与单一品种数据拟合的模型(“品种拟合”)进行比较。我们的分析基于地中海地区(西班牙、摩洛哥、突尼斯)和德国气候的九种杏仁、六种杏和六种甜樱桃品种的开花数据。与品种拟合和基线方法相比,组合拟合模型未能达到更高的预测精度,这可以从不同数据分割和校准数据集大小的均方根误差中得到证明。在比较冷积累和热积累亚模型的估计参数时,我们发现在品种拟合模型中,同一物种的品种之间存在较大的差异。相比之下,通过设计,组合拟合只对同一品种的栽培品种产生一个参数集。研究结果表明,整合多个品种的数据可以得到精度较高的春季物候模型。尽管组合拟合方法并不优于品种拟合方法,但组合拟合为有限数据集的春季物候建模提供了一个实用的解决方案,并便于在同一物种的不同品种之间进行比较。
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引用次数: 0
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International Journal of Biometeorology
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