首页 > 最新文献

International Journal of Biometeorology最新文献

英文 中文
Evapotranspiration adjustment for irrigated maize–soybean rotation systems in Nebraska, USA 美国内布拉斯加州玉米-大豆灌溉轮作系统的蒸散量调整。
IF 3.2 3区 地球科学 Q2 BIOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2023-09-06 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-023-02547-8
Ivo Z. Gonçalves, Christopher M. U. Neale, Andy Suyker, Fábio R. Marin

Irrigation water requirements are commonly estimated based on the estimated crop evapotranspiration (ETc) as determined by the reference evapotranspiration (ETr) and crop coefficient (Kc). Recent studies show that, at high evaporative demand (high ETr), Kc tends to decrease, creating an inverse ETr-Kc relationship. The focus of this long-term study is to, if at high atmosphere demand, there is the same inverse ETr-Kc relationship in Nebraska, USA, one of the most intensely irrigated regions in the world, and as a result, propose an adjustment to the Kc–ETr approach. The study was carried out in eastern Nebraska for maize-soybean rotation fields for the period 2002–2012. The Kc was estimated based on energy balance data from eddy covariance flux towers installed in the field and a nearby automated weather station throughout the growing seasons. We found that average Kc values varied depending on the year under high ETr; measured ETc agreed reasonably well with the FAO-56 manual predicted values, but in years with high ETr such as 2012 and 2002 affecting ETc values over the growing season. It was observed that Kc decreased as ETr increased, mainly when ETr reaches values greater than 6 mm d−1 (P values < 0.001). This most likely was due to internal plant stomatal resistance to vapor release from the leaves diffusing to the atmosphere at high atmospheric demands. So, the time-based Kc curves described by FAO 56 manual should be adjusted for the analyzed crops considering different ranges of ETr to improve the required irrigation depth and irrigation management.

灌溉需水量通常根据参考蒸散量(ETr)和作物系数(Kc)确定的估计作物蒸散量(ETc)进行估计。最近的研究表明,在高蒸发需求(高ETr)下,Kc往往会降低,从而产生相反的ETr-Kc关系。这项长期研究的重点是,如果在高大气需求下,美国内布拉斯加州(世界上灌溉最密集的地区之一)也存在同样的ETr-Kc反比关系,因此,建议对Kc-ETr方法进行调整。这项研究是在内布拉斯加州东部对2002-2012年期间的玉米-大豆轮作田进行的。Kc是根据安装在田地里的涡流协方差通量塔和附近的自动气象站在整个生长季节的能量平衡数据估计的。我们发现,在高ETr下,平均Kc值随年份而变化;测得的ETc与FAO-56手动预测值相当吻合,但在ETr较高的年份,如2012年和2002年,会影响生长季节的ETc值。观察到Kc随着ETr的增加而降低,主要是当ETr达到大于6mm d-1的值时(P值
{"title":"Evapotranspiration adjustment for irrigated maize–soybean rotation systems in Nebraska, USA","authors":"Ivo Z. Gonçalves,&nbsp;Christopher M. U. Neale,&nbsp;Andy Suyker,&nbsp;Fábio R. Marin","doi":"10.1007/s00484-023-02547-8","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-023-02547-8","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Irrigation water requirements are commonly estimated based on the estimated crop evapotranspiration (ET<sub>c</sub>) as determined by the reference evapotranspiration (ETr) and crop coefficient (K<sub>c</sub>). Recent studies show that, at high evaporative demand (high ETr), K<sub>c</sub> tends to decrease, creating an inverse ETr-K<sub>c</sub> relationship. The focus of this long-term study is to, if at high atmosphere demand, there is the same inverse ETr-K<sub>c</sub> relationship in Nebraska, USA, one of the most intensely irrigated regions in the world, and as a result, propose an adjustment to the Kc–ETr approach. The study was carried out in eastern Nebraska for maize-soybean rotation fields for the period 2002–2012. The Kc was estimated based on energy balance data from eddy covariance flux towers installed in the field and a nearby automated weather station throughout the growing seasons. We found that average Kc values varied depending on the year under high ETr; measured ETc agreed reasonably well with the FAO-56 manual predicted values, but in years with high ETr such as 2012 and 2002 affecting ETc values over the growing season. It was observed that Kc decreased as ETr increased, mainly when ETr reaches values greater than 6 mm d<sup>−1</sup> (<i>P</i> values &lt; 0.001). This most likely was due to internal plant stomatal resistance to vapor release from the leaves diffusing to the atmosphere at high atmospheric demands. So, the time-based Kc curves described by FAO 56 manual should be adjusted for the analyzed crops considering different ranges of ETr to improve the required irrigation depth and irrigation management.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"67 11","pages":"1869 - 1879"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2023-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10161274","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Impacts of meteorological variables and machine learning algorithms on rice yield prediction in Korea 气象变量和机器学习算法对韩国水稻产量预测的影响。
IF 3.2 3区 地球科学 Q2 BIOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2023-09-05 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-023-02544-x
Subin Ha, Yong-Tak Kim, Eun-Soon Im, Jina Hur, Sera Jo, Yong-Seok Kim, Kyo‑Moon Shim

As crop productivity is greatly influenced by weather conditions, many attempts have been made to estimate crop yields using meteorological data and have achieved great progress with the development of machine learning. However, most yield prediction models are developed based on observational data, and the utilization of climate model output in yield prediction has been addressed in very few studies. In this study, we estimate rice yields in South Korea using the meteorological variables provided by ERA5 reanalysis data (ERA-O) and its dynamically downscaled data (ERA-DS). After ERA-O and ERA-DS are validated against observations (OBS), two different machine learning models, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), are trained with different combinations of eight meteorological variables (mean temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, diurnal temperature range, solar irradiance, mean wind speed, and relative humidity) obtained from OBS, ERA-O, and ERA-DS at weekly and monthly timescales from May to September. Regardless of the model type and the source of the input data, training a model with weekly datasets leads to better yield estimates compared to monthly datasets. LSTM generally outperforms SVM, especially when the model is trained with ERA-DS data at a weekly timescale. The best yield estimates are produced by the LSTM model trained with all eight variables at a weekly timescale. Altogether this study shows the significance of high spatial and temporal resolution of input meteorological data in yield prediction, which can also serve to substantiate the added value of dynamical downscaling.

由于作物生产力在很大程度上受到天气条件的影响,人们已经尝试使用气象数据来估计作物产量,并随着机器学习的发展取得了巨大进展。然而,大多数产量预测模型都是基于观测数据开发的,很少有研究涉及气候模型输出在产量预测中的应用。在本研究中,我们使用ERA5再分析数据(ERA-O)及其动态缩减数据(ERA-DS)提供的气象变量来估计韩国的水稻产量。在ERA-O和ERA-DS根据观察结果(OBS)进行验证后,两种不同的机器学习模型,支持向量机(SVM)和长短期记忆(LSTM),使用从OBS、ERA-O和ERA-DS获得的八个气象变量(平均温度、最高温度、最低温度、降水量、昼夜温度范围、太阳辐照度、平均风速和相对湿度)的不同组合,在5月至9月的每周和每月时间尺度上进行训练。无论模型类型和输入数据的来源如何,与月度数据集相比,用每周数据集训练模型可以获得更好的产量估计。LSTM通常优于SVM,尤其是当模型在每周的时间尺度上使用ERA-DS数据进行训练时。最佳产量估计是由LSTM模型在每周的时间尺度上用所有八个变量进行训练产生的。总之,本研究表明了输入气象数据的高时空分辨率在产量预测中的重要性,这也有助于证实动态降尺度的附加值。
{"title":"Impacts of meteorological variables and machine learning algorithms on rice yield prediction in Korea","authors":"Subin Ha,&nbsp;Yong-Tak Kim,&nbsp;Eun-Soon Im,&nbsp;Jina Hur,&nbsp;Sera Jo,&nbsp;Yong-Seok Kim,&nbsp;Kyo‑Moon Shim","doi":"10.1007/s00484-023-02544-x","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-023-02544-x","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>As crop productivity is greatly influenced by weather conditions, many attempts have been made to estimate crop yields using meteorological data and have achieved great progress with the development of machine learning. However, most yield prediction models are developed based on observational data, and the utilization of climate model output in yield prediction has been addressed in very few studies. In this study, we estimate rice yields in South Korea using the meteorological variables provided by ERA5 reanalysis data (ERA-O) and its dynamically downscaled data (ERA-DS). After ERA-O and ERA-DS are validated against observations (OBS), two different machine learning models, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), are trained with different combinations of eight meteorological variables (mean temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, diurnal temperature range, solar irradiance, mean wind speed, and relative humidity) obtained from OBS, ERA-O, and ERA-DS at weekly and monthly timescales from May to September. Regardless of the model type and the source of the input data, training a model with weekly datasets leads to better yield estimates compared to monthly datasets. LSTM generally outperforms SVM, especially when the model is trained with ERA-DS data at a weekly timescale. The best yield estimates are produced by the LSTM model trained with all eight variables at a weekly timescale. Altogether this study shows the significance of high spatial and temporal resolution of input meteorological data in yield prediction, which can also serve to substantiate the added value of dynamical downscaling.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"67 11","pages":"1825 - 1838"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2023-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10210360","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How does pollen production of allergenic species differ between urban and rural environments? 城市和农村环境中致敏物种的花粉产量有何不同?
IF 3.2 3区 地球科学 Q2 BIOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2023-09-02 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-023-02545-w
Johanna Jetschni, Markus Fritsch, Susanne Jochner-Oette

Pollen production is one plant characteristic that is considered to be altered by changes in environmental conditions. In this study, we investigated pollen production of the three anemophilous species Betula pendula, Plantago lanceolata, and Dactylis glomerata along an urbanization gradient in Ingolstadt, Germany. We compared pollen production with the potential influencing factors urbanization, air temperature, and the air pollutants nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3). While we measured air temperature in the field, we computed concentration levels of NO2 and O3 from a land use regression model. The results showed that average pollen production (in million pollen grains) was 1.2 ± 1.0 per catkin of Betula pendula, 5.0 ± 2.4 per inflorescence of Plantago lanceolata, and 0.7 ± 0.5 per spikelet of Dactylis glomerata. Pollen production was higher in rural compared to urban locations on average for B. pendula (+ 73%) and P. lanceolata (+ 31%), while the opposite was the case for D. glomerata (− 14%). We found that there was substantial heterogeneity across the three species with respect to the association of pollen production and environmental influences. Pollen production decreased for all species with increasing temperature and urbanization, while for increasing pollutant concentrations, decreases were observed for B. pendula, P. lanceolata, and increases for D. glomerata. Additionally, pollen production was found to be highly variable across species and within species—even at small spatial distances. Experiments should be conducted to further explore plant responses to altering environmental conditions.

花粉产生是一种被认为会因环境条件的变化而改变的植物特征。在这项研究中,我们沿着德国因戈尔施塔特的城市化梯度调查了三种喜风物种垂桦(Betula plumbula)、柳叶车前草(Plantago lanceolata)和球花Dactylis glomerata的花粉生产。我们将花粉生产与城市化、气温以及空气污染物二氧化氮(NO2)和臭氧(O3)的潜在影响因素进行了比较。当我们测量现场的空气温度时,我们根据土地利用回归模型计算了NO2和O3的浓度水平。结果表明,平均花粉产量(百万花粉粒)为1.2 ± 垂桦每絮1.0,5.0 ± Plantago lanceolata的每个花序2.4,和0.7 ± 每小穗0.5。与城市地区相比,农村地区的平均花粉产量更高(+ 73%)和P.lanceolata(+ 31%),而D.glomerata的情况正好相反(- 14%)。我们发现,在花粉产生和环境影响的关联方面,这三个物种之间存在显著的异质性。随着温度的升高和城市化程度的提高,所有物种的花粉产量都有所下降,而随着污染物浓度的增加,B.pendula、P.lanceolata的花粉产量下降,D.glomerata的花粉产量增加。此外,花粉产量在不同物种之间和物种内部变化很大,即使在很小的空间距离上也是如此。应该进行实验来进一步探索植物对环境条件变化的反应。
{"title":"How does pollen production of allergenic species differ between urban and rural environments?","authors":"Johanna Jetschni,&nbsp;Markus Fritsch,&nbsp;Susanne Jochner-Oette","doi":"10.1007/s00484-023-02545-w","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-023-02545-w","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Pollen production is one plant characteristic that is considered to be altered by changes in environmental conditions. In this study, we investigated pollen production of the three anemophilous species <i>Betula pendula</i>, <i>Plantago lanceolata</i>, and <i>Dactylis glomerata</i> along an urbanization gradient in Ingolstadt, Germany. We compared pollen production with the potential influencing factors urbanization, air temperature, and the air pollutants nitrogen dioxide (NO<sub>2</sub>) and ozone (O<sub>3</sub>). While we measured air temperature in the field, we computed concentration levels of NO<sub>2</sub> and O<sub>3</sub> from a land use regression model. The results showed that average pollen production (in million pollen grains) was 1.2 ± 1.0 per catkin of <i>Betula pendula</i>, 5.0 ± 2.4 per inflorescence of <i>Plantago lanceolata</i>, and 0.7 ± 0.5 per spikelet of <i>Dactylis glomerata.</i> Pollen production was higher in rural compared to urban locations on average for <i>B. pendula</i> (+ 73%) and <i>P. lanceolata</i> (+ 31%), while the opposite was the case for <i>D. glomerata</i> (− 14%). We found that there was substantial heterogeneity across the three species with respect to the association of pollen production and environmental influences. Pollen production decreased for all species with increasing temperature and urbanization, while for increasing pollutant concentrations, decreases were observed for <i>B. pendula</i>, <i>P. lanceolata</i>, and increases for <i>D. glomerata</i>. Additionally, pollen production was found to be highly variable across species and within species—even at small spatial distances. Experiments should be conducted to further explore plant responses to altering environmental conditions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"67 11","pages":"1839 - 1852"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2023-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00484-023-02545-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10144971","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Effect of atmospheric pollen concentration on daily visits of allergic rhinitis in Beijing: a distributed lag nonlinear model analysis 大气花粉浓度对北京地区变应性鼻炎患者日常就诊的影响:分布滞后非线性模型分析。
IF 3.2 3区 地球科学 Q2 BIOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-023-02533-0
Aizhu Liu, Weixuan Sheng, Xianshi Tang, Jinshu Yin

To investigate the influence and lag effect of atmospheric pollen concentration on daily visits of patients with allergic rhinitis (AR), we collected the AR data during the pollen seasons from 2018 to 2019 from the outpatient and emergency department of Beijing Shijitan Hospital. The distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to analyze the correlation and the lag effect between pollen concentration and the incidence of AR. R4.1.2 was used to generate the Spearman correlation coefficients and plot the lag response curves of relative risk specific and incremental cumulative effects. In 2018 and 2019, the number of AR visits was moderately positively correlated with pollen concentration. The peak value of the overall specific cumulative effect for every 10 grains/1000 mm2 increase in atmospheric pollen concentration occurred on day 0 (2018, 2019), and the lag disappearance time was day 6 (2018) and day 7 (2019), and the specific cumulative effect duration was respectively 6 days (2018) and 7 days (2019), with the curve showing a downward trend with time increase. In 2018, the peak value of the overall incremental cumulative effect was on day 7, the lag disappearance time was day 13, and the duration of the incremental cumulative effect was 13 days, forming a curve pattern of rising first and then falling. In 2019, the peak value time of the overall incremental cumulative effect was on day 8, and the curve went down afterwards until it showed the trend of ascending again after day26.

为了研究大气花粉浓度对变应性鼻炎(AR)患者日常就诊的影响和滞后效应,我们收集了北京世纪坛医院门急诊2018-2019年花粉季节的AR数据。使用分布式滞后非线性模型(DLNM)分析花粉浓度与AR发病率之间的相关性和滞后效应。R4.1.2用于生成Spearman相关系数,并绘制相对风险特异性和增量累积效应的滞后响应曲线。2018年和2019年,AR访视次数与花粉浓度呈中度正相关。大气花粉浓度每增加10粒/1000 mm2,总体比累积效应的峰值出现在第0天(20182019),滞后消失时间为第6天(2018)和第7天(2019),比累积效应持续时间分别为6天(20182018)和7天(2019),曲线随时间的增加呈下降趋势。2018年,整体增量累积效应峰值出现在第7天,滞后消失时间为第13天,增量累积效应持续时间为13天,形成了先升后降的曲线格局。2019年,总体增量累积效应的峰值时间在第8天,之后曲线下降,直到第26天之后再次呈现上升趋势。
{"title":"Effect of atmospheric pollen concentration on daily visits of allergic rhinitis in Beijing: a distributed lag nonlinear model analysis","authors":"Aizhu Liu,&nbsp;Weixuan Sheng,&nbsp;Xianshi Tang,&nbsp;Jinshu Yin","doi":"10.1007/s00484-023-02533-0","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-023-02533-0","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>To investigate the influence and lag effect of atmospheric pollen concentration on daily visits of patients with allergic rhinitis (AR), we collected the AR data during the pollen seasons from 2018 to 2019 from the outpatient and emergency department of Beijing Shijitan Hospital. The distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to analyze the correlation and the lag effect between pollen concentration and the incidence of AR. R4.1.2 was used to generate the Spearman correlation coefficients and plot the lag response curves of relative risk specific and incremental cumulative effects. In 2018 and 2019, the number of AR visits was moderately positively correlated with pollen concentration. The peak value of the overall specific cumulative effect for every 10 grains/1000 mm<sup>2</sup> increase in atmospheric pollen concentration occurred on day 0 (2018, 2019), and the lag disappearance time was day 6 (2018) and day 7 (2019), and the specific cumulative effect duration was respectively 6 days (2018) and 7 days (2019), with the curve showing a downward trend with time increase. In 2018, the peak value of the overall incremental cumulative effect was on day 7, the lag disappearance time was day 13, and the duration of the incremental cumulative effect was 13 days, forming a curve pattern of rising first and then falling. In 2019, the peak value time of the overall incremental cumulative effect was on day 8, and the curve went down afterwards until it showed the trend of ascending again after day26.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"67 11","pages":"1723 - 1732"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10120368","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Determination of climatologically suitable places in Türkiye for feedlot cattle production using the Comprehensive Climate Index model 使用综合气候指数模型确定土耳其气候适宜饲养场养牛的地方。
IF 3.2 3区 地球科学 Q2 BIOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2023-08-30 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-023-02541-0
Hayati Koknaroglu, John A. Harrington Jr, Terry L. Mader, Thomas B. Larsen

The purpose of this study was to determine climatologically suitable places to raise feedlot cattle in Türkiye. The Comprehensive Climate Index (CCI), a model that enables one to quantify beef cattle performance based on environmental conditions (temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, solar radiation) at any time in the year, was used to predict dry matter intake (DMI), average daily gain (ADG), and feed efficiency (FE) of feedlot cattle. Thirty years of daily average temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed values were obtained for 15 cities, namely, Antalya, Balikesir, Çorum, Diyarbakir, Edirne, Elazig, Erzincan, Erzurum, Eskisehir, Isparta, Izmir, Kayseri, Konya, Sivas, and Van. Measured daily solar radiation values were not available and values were calculated based on a formula that takes hemisphere, latitude, and day of the year into account. Since mostly dairy breed calves are placed into a feedlot in Türkiye, the Holstein option in the CCI model was chosen to calculate the maintenance energy requirement. Based on previous feedlot feeding studies conducted in Türkiye, it was assumed that calves would be placed on feed at 250 kg and be marketed at 520 kg, that the diet would have 2600 kcal/kg metabolic energy, and that DMI would be 2.31% of the body weight. Results indicate that cattle raised in Antalya (the hottest place) and Erzurum (the coldest place) had the lowest and highest DMI, respectively (P<0.05). Summer months depressed the DMI of cattle in hotter cities and winter months increased the DMI of cattle in colder cities (P<0.05). Feedlot cattle raised in hotter and colder regions of Türkiye had lower ADG than other places having a more temperate climate (P<0.05). In general, cattle raised in a hotter climate had better FE than those raised in a cold climate (P<0.05).

这项研究的目的是确定土耳其饲养场牛的气候适宜地点。综合气候指数(CCI)是一个能够根据一年中任何时候的环境条件(温度、相对湿度、风速、太阳辐射)量化肉牛表现的模型,用于预测饲养场牛的干物质摄入量(DMI)、平均日增重(ADG)和饲料效率(FE)。获得了15个城市的30年日平均温度、相对湿度和风速值,即安塔利亚、巴里克希尔、Çorum、迪亚巴克尔、埃迪尔内、埃拉泽、埃尔津坎、埃尔祖鲁姆、埃斯基谢希尔、伊斯帕尔塔、伊兹密尔、凯塞里、科尼亚、西瓦斯和凡。测量的每日太阳辐射值不可用,这些值是根据一个将半球、纬度和一年中的某一天考虑在内的公式计算的。由于大多数乳制品品种的小牛都被安置在土耳其的饲养场,因此选择了CCI模型中的Holstein选项来计算维持能量需求。根据之前在土耳其进行的饲养场饲养研究,假设小牛将以250公斤的体重喂养,并以520公斤的体重上市,该饮食将具有2600千卡/公斤的代谢能量,DMI将为体重的2.31%。结果表明,安塔利亚(最热的地方)和埃尔祖鲁姆(最冷的地方)饲养的牛DMI分别最低和最高(P
{"title":"Determination of climatologically suitable places in Türkiye for feedlot cattle production using the Comprehensive Climate Index model","authors":"Hayati Koknaroglu,&nbsp;John A. Harrington Jr,&nbsp;Terry L. Mader,&nbsp;Thomas B. Larsen","doi":"10.1007/s00484-023-02541-0","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-023-02541-0","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The purpose of this study was to determine climatologically suitable places to raise feedlot cattle in Türkiye. The Comprehensive Climate Index (CCI), a model that enables one to quantify beef cattle performance based on environmental conditions (temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, solar radiation) at any time in the year, was used to predict dry matter intake (DMI), average daily gain (ADG), and feed efficiency (FE) of feedlot cattle. Thirty years of daily average temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed values were obtained for 15 cities, namely, Antalya, Balikesir, Çorum, Diyarbakir, Edirne, Elazig, Erzincan, Erzurum, Eskisehir, Isparta, Izmir, Kayseri, Konya, Sivas, and Van. Measured daily solar radiation values were not available and values were calculated based on a formula that takes hemisphere, latitude, and day of the year into account. Since mostly dairy breed calves are placed into a feedlot in Türkiye, the Holstein option in the CCI model was chosen to calculate the maintenance energy requirement. Based on previous feedlot feeding studies conducted in Türkiye, it was assumed that calves would be placed on feed at 250 kg and be marketed at 520 kg, that the diet would have 2600 kcal/kg metabolic energy, and that DMI would be 2.31% of the body weight. Results indicate that cattle raised in Antalya (the hottest place) and Erzurum (the coldest place) had the lowest and highest DMI, respectively (<i>P</i>&lt;0.05). Summer months depressed the DMI of cattle in hotter cities and winter months increased the DMI of cattle in colder cities (<i>P</i>&lt;0.05). Feedlot cattle raised in hotter and colder regions of Türkiye had lower ADG than other places having a more temperate climate (<i>P</i>&lt;0.05). In general, cattle raised in a hotter climate had better FE than those raised in a cold climate (<i>P</i>&lt;0.05).</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"67 11","pages":"1813 - 1824"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2023-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10111032","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Metatranscriptomic insight into the possible role of clay microbiome in skin disease management 对粘土微生物组在皮肤病管理中可能作用的元转录组学见解。
IF 3.2 3区 地球科学 Q2 BIOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2023-08-16 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-023-02540-1
Sakshi Sharma, Monika Kumari, Jyoti Vakhlu

Even though the scientific documentation is limited, microbiome of healing clay is gradually gaining attention of the scientific community, as a therapeutic force playing an indispensable role in skin disease management. The present study explores the metatranscriptome profile of the Chamliyal clay, widely known for its efficacy in managing various skin problems, using Illumina NextSeq sequencing technology. The gene expression profile of the clay microbial community was analyzed through SEED subsystems of the MG-RAST server. Due to the unavailability of metatranscriptomic data on other therapeutic clays, Chamliyal’s profile was compared to non-therapeutic soils, as well as healthy and diseased human skin microbiomes. The study identified Firmicutes, Proteobacteria, and Actinobacteria as the primary active microbial phyla in Chamliyal clay. These resemble those abundant in a healthy human skin microbiome. This is significant as lower levels of these phyla in the skin are linked to inflammatory skin conditions like psoriasis. Interestingly, pathogenic microbes actively metabolizing in the clay were absent. Importantly, 6% of the transcripts annotated to sulfur and iron metabolism, which are known to play a major role in skin disease management. This study provides the most comprehensive and a novel overview of the metatranscriptome of any of the healing clay available worldwide. The findings offer valuable insights into the clay microbiome’s potential in managing skin disorders, inspiring future endeavors to harness these insights for medical applications.

尽管科学文献有限,但作为一种在皮肤病管理中发挥不可或缺作用的治疗力量,愈合粘土的微生物组正逐渐受到科学界的关注。本研究使用Illumina NextSeq测序技术,探索了Chamliyal粘土的宏转录组图谱,该粘土因其治疗各种皮肤问题的功效而广为人知。通过MG-RAST服务器的SEED子系统分析了粘土微生物群落的基因表达谱。由于无法获得其他治疗性粘土的元转录组数据,将Chamliyal的图谱与非治疗性土壤以及健康和患病的人类皮肤微生物组进行了比较。该研究确定厚壁菌门、变形菌门和放线菌门是Chamliyal粘土中主要的活性微生物门。这些类似于健康的人类皮肤微生物组中丰富的微生物。这一点意义重大,因为皮肤中这些门的较低水平与银屑病等炎症性皮肤病有关。有趣的是,粘土中没有活跃代谢的病原微生物。重要的是,6%的转录本被注释为硫和铁代谢,已知硫和铁在皮肤病管理中发挥着重要作用。这项研究提供了世界各地可用的任何愈合粘土的元转录组的最全面和最新颖的概述。这些发现为粘土微生物组在管理皮肤疾病方面的潜力提供了宝贵的见解,激励了未来利用这些见解进行医学应用的努力。
{"title":"Metatranscriptomic insight into the possible role of clay microbiome in skin disease management","authors":"Sakshi Sharma,&nbsp;Monika Kumari,&nbsp;Jyoti Vakhlu","doi":"10.1007/s00484-023-02540-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-023-02540-1","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Even though the scientific documentation is limited, microbiome of healing clay is gradually gaining attention of the scientific community, as a therapeutic force playing an indispensable role in skin disease management. The present study explores the metatranscriptome profile of the Chamliyal clay, widely known for its efficacy in managing various skin problems, using Illumina NextSeq sequencing technology. The gene expression profile of the clay microbial community was analyzed through SEED subsystems of the MG-RAST server. Due to the unavailability of metatranscriptomic data on other therapeutic clays, Chamliyal’s profile was compared to non-therapeutic soils, as well as healthy and diseased human skin microbiomes. The study identified Firmicutes, Proteobacteria, and Actinobacteria as the primary active microbial phyla in Chamliyal clay. These resemble those abundant in a healthy human skin microbiome. This is significant as lower levels of these phyla in the skin are linked to inflammatory skin conditions like psoriasis. Interestingly, pathogenic microbes actively metabolizing in the clay were absent. Importantly, 6% of the transcripts annotated to sulfur and iron metabolism, which are known to play a major role in skin disease management. This study provides the most comprehensive and a novel overview of the metatranscriptome of any of the healing clay available worldwide. The findings offer valuable insights into the clay microbiome’s potential in managing skin disorders, inspiring future endeavors to harness these insights for medical applications.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"67 11","pages":"1803 - 1811"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2023-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10004549","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Effects of temperature adjustment with a heating device in weak honey bee colonies in cold seasons 在寒冷季节用加热装置调节弱蜂群温度的效果。
IF 3.2 3区 地球科学 Q2 BIOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2023-08-16 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-023-02537-w
Ibrahim Çakmak, Basri Kul, Faten Ben Abdelkader, Selvinar Seven Çakmak

Temperature adjustment was used to buffer against changes in external environmental temperature by a heating device. Two groups of honey bee colonies Apis mellifera anatoliaca were used: one as experimental (20) and the other control (10), which were equalized in terms of the number of brood frames, frames with bees, food, hive materials, and health treatments. The experimental colonies were heated during the cold season, and the temperature and humidity inside the hive were recorded. The number of frames of brood, frames of bees, and Varroa destructor mite numbers were also determined for all hives. Results suggest that the number of brood frames and frames with bees increased significantly in the hives with the heating treatment. However, varroa mite numbers also increased significantly in the heated colonies in comparison to the control colonies. Colony losses were significantly less (15%) in heated colonies compared to a 40% loss in control colonies. This is the first account demonstrating that using simple heating devices can support weak colonies during the cold season in general, and colony losses can be reduced significantly from this heating treatment in cold seasons.

温度调节用于通过加热装置缓冲外部环境温度的变化。使用了两组蜜蜂群落:一组作为实验(20),另一组作为对照(10),在育巢架、蜜蜂架、食物、蜂箱材料和健康处理方面进行了均衡。实验菌落在寒冷季节被加热,并记录蜂箱内的温度和湿度。还确定了所有蜂箱的窝框数、蜜蜂框数和瓦螨数量。结果表明,在经过加热处理的蜂箱中,孵化架和带蜂架的数量显著增加。然而,与对照菌落相比,加热菌落中的瓦螨数量也显著增加。与对照集落中40%的损失相比,加热集落中的集落损失显著减少(15%)。这是第一个证明使用简单的加热设备可以在寒冷季节支持弱菌落的报道,并且在寒冷季节通过这种加热处理可以显著减少菌落损失。
{"title":"Effects of temperature adjustment with a heating device in weak honey bee colonies in cold seasons","authors":"Ibrahim Çakmak,&nbsp;Basri Kul,&nbsp;Faten Ben Abdelkader,&nbsp;Selvinar Seven Çakmak","doi":"10.1007/s00484-023-02537-w","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-023-02537-w","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Temperature adjustment was used to buffer against changes in external environmental temperature by a heating device. Two groups of honey bee colonies <i>Apis mellifera anatoliaca</i> were used: one as experimental (20) and the other control (10), which were equalized in terms of the number of brood frames, frames with bees, food, hive materials, and health treatments. The experimental colonies were heated during the cold season, and the temperature and humidity inside the hive were recorded. The number of frames of brood, frames of bees, and <i>Varroa destructor</i> mite numbers were also determined for all hives. Results suggest that the number of brood frames and frames with bees increased significantly in the hives with the heating treatment. However, varroa mite numbers also increased significantly in the heated colonies in comparison to the control colonies. Colony losses were significantly less (15%) in heated colonies compared to a 40% loss in control colonies. This is the first account demonstrating that using simple heating devices can support weak colonies during the cold season in general, and colony losses can be reduced significantly from this heating treatment in cold seasons.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"67 11","pages":"1765 - 1774"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2023-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10381662","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Physiological changes and behavioral responses in heat-stressed goats under humid tropical environment 热带潮湿环境下热应激山羊的生理变化和行为反应。
IF 3.2 3区 地球科学 Q2 BIOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2023-08-14 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-023-02536-x
Asep I. M. Ali, Sofia Sandi, Armina Fariani, Abdullah Darussalam

Kacang (K) and Kacang Etawah (KE) cross goats are the major goat breeds that are important for farming livelihood and income and recognized for their tolerance to hot and humid tropical climates. As global warming progresses, the daily maximum temperature (Tmax) is predicted to be continuously increased, which will challenge goat production in the future. The objective of this study was to evaluate the physiological and behavioral responses of the goats to the elevated Tmax. Six K and six KE female goats were housed in a normal environment (average Tmax: 33°C; temperature humidity index (THI): 76 to 86) for 6 weeks and then in a hot environment (average Tmax: 38°C; THI: 76 to 92) for 7 weeks. During hot conditions, rectal, rectal surface, and skin temperature, respiration rate, hemoglobin, and cholesterol increased (p < 0.05), whereas glucose blood levels decreased (p < 0.01). Dry matter (DM) intake was lowered (p < 0.01), and DM digestibility was elevated (p < 0.01), whereas drinking water and body water retention were lowered but varied (p < 0.05) during hot weeks. Lying time increased during the hot weeks in both breeds (p < 0.01), whereas lying and ruminating as well as total ruminating time was longer (p < 0.05) in KE goats compared to K goats, which explain the greater (p < 0.05) DM digestibility in KE goats. The effect of the elevated Tmax might be less severe since it also depends on the duration of the Tmax and the variation of daily THI.

Kacang(K)和Kacang Etawah(KE)杂交山羊是主要的山羊品种,对农业生计和收入很重要,并因其对湿热热带气候的耐受性而得到认可。随着全球变暖的进展,预计日最高气温(Tmax)将持续升高,这将对未来的山羊生产构成挑战。本研究的目的是评估山羊对Tmax升高的生理和行为反应。将6只K和6只KE母山羊在正常环境(平均Tmax:33°C;温湿度指数(THI):76-86)中饲养6周,然后在高温环境(平均T max:38°C;THI:76~92)中饲养7周。在炎热的天气条件下,直肠、直肠表面和皮肤温度、呼吸频率、血红蛋白和胆固醇增加(p<0.05),而葡萄糖血液水平下降(p<0.01)。干物质(DM)摄入量降低(p<0.01),DM消化率提高(p<0.01);而饮用水和体水保持率降低,但在炎热的几周内有所不同(p<0.05)。在两个品种的热周期间,躺着的时间都增加了(p<0.01),而与K山羊相比,KE山羊的躺着和反刍以及总反刍时间更长(p<0.05),这解释了KE山羊的DM消化率更高(p<0.05)。Tmax升高的影响可能不那么严重,因为它还取决于Tmax的持续时间和每日THI的变化。
{"title":"Physiological changes and behavioral responses in heat-stressed goats under humid tropical environment","authors":"Asep I. M. Ali,&nbsp;Sofia Sandi,&nbsp;Armina Fariani,&nbsp;Abdullah Darussalam","doi":"10.1007/s00484-023-02536-x","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-023-02536-x","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Kacang (K) and Kacang Etawah (KE) cross goats are the major goat breeds that are important for farming livelihood and income and recognized for their tolerance to hot and humid tropical climates. As global warming progresses, the daily maximum temperature (T<sub>max</sub>) is predicted to be continuously increased, which will challenge goat production in the future. The objective of this study was to evaluate the physiological and behavioral responses of the goats to the elevated T<sub>max</sub>. Six K and six KE female goats were housed in a normal environment (average T<sub>max</sub>: 33°C; temperature humidity index (THI): 76 to 86) for 6 weeks and then in a hot environment (average T<sub>max</sub>: 38°C; THI: 76 to 92) for 7 weeks. During hot conditions, rectal, rectal surface, and skin temperature, respiration rate, hemoglobin, and cholesterol increased (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05), whereas glucose blood levels decreased (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.01). Dry matter (DM) intake was lowered (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.01), and DM digestibility was elevated (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.01), whereas drinking water and body water retention were lowered but varied (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05) during hot weeks. Lying time increased during the hot weeks in both breeds (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.01), whereas lying and ruminating as well as total ruminating time was longer (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05) in KE goats compared to K goats, which explain the greater (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05) DM digestibility in KE goats. The effect of the elevated T<sub>max</sub> might be less severe since it also depends on the duration of the T<sub>max</sub> and the variation of daily THI.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"67 11","pages":"1757 - 1764"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2023-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00484-023-02536-x.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9991692","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Universal thermal climate index in the Arctic in an era of climate change: Alaska and Chukotka as a case study 气候变化时代北极的普遍热气候指数:以阿拉斯加和楚科奇为例研究。
IF 3.2 3区 地球科学 Q2 BIOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2023-08-12 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-023-02531-2
E.A. Grigorieva, V.A. Alexeev, J.E. Walsh

The modern unambiguous climate change reveals in a rapid increase of air temperature, which is more distinctly expressed in the Arctic than in any other part of the world, affecting people health and well-being. The main objective of the current research is to explore the inter- and intra-annual changes in thermal stress for people in the Arctic, specifically for two parts of Beringia: Alaska, USA, and Chukotka, Russia, using climatology of the universal thermal climate index (UTCI). Data for 39 locations are taken from the ERA5-HEAT reanalysis for the period 1979–2020. Climatologically, the study area is divided into four subregions in Alaska: North, Interior, West and South, and two in Chukotka: Interior and Coast. The extreme coldest UTCI categories (1 and 2) are most common in coastal locations of northern Alaska and Chukotka, where strong winds exacerbate the low temperatures during winter. The results show that the frequency of category 1 (UTCI<−40°C) varies spatially from a quarter of all hours annually in Alaska North to almost zero in Alaska South. On the other hand, the warmest categories are rarely reached almost everywhere in Alaska and Chukotka, and even categories 7 and 8 (UTCI between +26 and +38°C) are found occasionally only at interior locations. Category 6 with no thermal stress (UTCI between +9 and+26°C) has frequencies up to 3% and 25% in Alaska North and Interior, respectively. The extremely cold thermal stress frequencies have substantially decreased over the 1979–2020 period, especially in Alaska North and Chukotka Coast. At the same time, the number of hours with UTCI in the comfortable category of thermal perception has increased depending on subregion, from 25 to 203 h/year. Overall, a decrease in the UTCI categories of extremely cold stress is coupled with an increase in the comfortable range in both Alaska and Chukotka. The salient conclusion is that, from the point of view of comfort and safety, global warming has a positive impact on the climatology of thermal stress in the Arctic, providing advantages for the development of tourism and recreation.

现代明确的气候变化表现为气温的快速上升,北极地区的气温比世界其他任何地区都更明显,影响着人们的健康和福祉。当前研究的主要目标是利用通用热气候指数(UTCI)的气候学,探索北极地区人民的热应力年际和年内变化,特别是白令海的两个地区:美国阿拉斯加和俄罗斯楚科奇。39个位置的数据取自1979-2020年期间的ERA5-HEAT再分析。在气候方面,研究区域在阿拉斯加分为四个亚区:北部、内陆、西部和南部,在楚科奇分为两个亚区,即内陆和海岸。极端最冷的UTCI类别(1和2)在阿拉斯加北部和楚科奇的沿海地区最为常见,那里的强风加剧了冬季的低温。结果表明,类别1(UTCI)的频率
{"title":"Universal thermal climate index in the Arctic in an era of climate change: Alaska and Chukotka as a case study","authors":"E.A. Grigorieva,&nbsp;V.A. Alexeev,&nbsp;J.E. Walsh","doi":"10.1007/s00484-023-02531-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-023-02531-2","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The modern unambiguous climate change reveals in a rapid increase of air temperature, which is more distinctly expressed in the Arctic than in any other part of the world, affecting people health and well-being. The main objective of the current research is to explore the inter- and intra-annual changes in thermal stress for people in the Arctic, specifically for two parts of Beringia: Alaska, USA, and Chukotka, Russia, using climatology of the universal thermal climate index (UTCI). Data for 39 locations are taken from the ERA5-HEAT reanalysis for the period 1979–2020. Climatologically, the study area is divided into four subregions in Alaska: North, Interior, West and South, and two in Chukotka: Interior and Coast. The extreme coldest UTCI categories (1 and 2) are most common in coastal locations of northern Alaska and Chukotka, where strong winds exacerbate the low temperatures during winter. The results show that the frequency of category 1 (UTCI&lt;−40°C) varies spatially from a quarter of all hours annually in Alaska North to almost zero in Alaska South. On the other hand, the warmest categories are rarely reached almost everywhere in Alaska and Chukotka, and even categories 7 and 8 (UTCI between +26 and +38°C) are found occasionally only at interior locations. Category 6 with no thermal stress (UTCI between +9 and+26°C) has frequencies up to 3% and 25% in Alaska North and Interior, respectively. The extremely cold thermal stress frequencies have substantially decreased over the 1979–2020 period, especially in Alaska North and Chukotka Coast. At the same time, the number of hours with UTCI in the comfortable category of thermal perception has increased depending on subregion, from 25 to 203 h/year. Overall, a decrease in the UTCI categories of extremely cold stress is coupled with an increase in the comfortable range in both Alaska and Chukotka. The salient conclusion is that, from the point of view of comfort and safety, global warming has a positive impact on the climatology of thermal stress in the Arctic, providing advantages for the development of tourism and recreation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"67 11","pages":"1703 - 1721"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2023-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00484-023-02531-2.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10353249","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Natural and socio-environmental factors contribute to the transmissibility of COVID-19: evidence from an improved SEIR model 自然和社会环境因素有助于新冠肺炎的传播性:来自改进的SEIR模型的证据。
IF 3.2 3区 地球科学 Q2 BIOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2023-08-10 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-023-02539-8
Jie Li, Kun Jia, Wenwu Zhao, Bo Yuan, Yanxu Liu

Abstract 

COVID-19 has ravaged Brazil, and its spread showed spatial heterogeneity. Changes in the environment have been implicated as potential factors involved in COVID-19 transmission. However, considerable research efforts have not elucidated the risk of environmental factors on COVID-19 transmission from the perspective of infectious disease dynamics. The aim of this study is to model the influence of the environment on COVID-19 transmission and to analyze how the socio-ecological factors affecting the probability of virus transmission in 10 states dramatically shifted during the early stages of the epidemic in Brazil. First, this study used a Pearson correlation to analyze the interconnection between COVID-19 morbidity and socio-ecological factors and identified factors with significant correlations as the dominant factors affecting COVID-19 transmission. Then, the time-lag effect of dominant factors on the morbidity of COVID-19 was investigated by constructing a distributed lag nonlinear model and standard two-stage meta-analytic model, and the results were considered in the improved SEIR model. Lastly, a machine learning method was introduced to explore the nonlinear relationship between the environmental propagation probability and socio-ecological factors. By analyzing the impact of environmental factors on virus transmission, it can be found that population mobility directly caused by human activities had a greater impact on virus transmission than temperature and humidity. The heterogeneity of meteorological factors can be accounted for by the diverse climate patterns in Brazil. The improved SEIR model was adopted to explore the interconnection of COVID-19 transmission and the environment, which revealed a new strategy to probe the causal links between them.

新冠肺炎肆虐巴西,其传播表现出空间异质性。环境变化被认为是新冠肺炎传播的潜在因素。然而,大量的研究工作尚未从传染病动力学的角度阐明环境因素对新冠肺炎传播的风险。本研究的目的是模拟环境对新冠肺炎传播的影响,并分析在巴西疫情早期,影响10个州病毒传播概率的社会生态因素是如何急剧变化的。首先,本研究使用皮尔逊相关性分析了新冠肺炎发病率与社会生态因素之间的相互关系,并确定了具有显著相关性的因素是影响新冠肺炎传播的主导因素。然后,通过构建分布式滞后非线性模型和标准两阶段元分析模型,研究了主导因素对新冠肺炎发病率的时滞效应,并将其纳入改进的SEIR模型。最后,引入机器学习方法来探索环境传播概率与社会生态因素之间的非线性关系。通过分析环境因素对病毒传播的影响可以发现,人类活动直接引起的人口流动对病毒传播影响大于温度和湿度。巴西不同的气候模式可以解释气象因素的异质性。采用改进的SEIR模型来探索新冠肺炎传播与环境之间的相互联系,这揭示了一种新的策略来探索它们之间的因果关系。
{"title":"Natural and socio-environmental factors contribute to the transmissibility of COVID-19: evidence from an improved SEIR model","authors":"Jie Li,&nbsp;Kun Jia,&nbsp;Wenwu Zhao,&nbsp;Bo Yuan,&nbsp;Yanxu Liu","doi":"10.1007/s00484-023-02539-8","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-023-02539-8","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h2>Abstract </h2><div><p>COVID-19 has ravaged Brazil, and its spread showed spatial heterogeneity. Changes in the environment have been implicated as potential factors involved in COVID-19 transmission. However, considerable research efforts have not elucidated the risk of environmental factors on COVID-19 transmission from the perspective of infectious disease dynamics. The aim of this study is to model the influence of the environment on COVID-19 transmission and to analyze how the socio-ecological factors affecting the probability of virus transmission in 10 states dramatically shifted during the early stages of the epidemic in Brazil. First, this study used a Pearson correlation to analyze the interconnection between COVID-19 morbidity and socio-ecological factors and identified factors with significant correlations as the dominant factors affecting COVID-19 transmission. Then, the time-lag effect of dominant factors on the morbidity of COVID-19 was investigated by constructing a distributed lag nonlinear model and standard two-stage meta-analytic model, and the results were considered in the improved SEIR model. Lastly, a machine learning method was introduced to explore the nonlinear relationship between the environmental propagation probability and socio-ecological factors. By analyzing the impact of environmental factors on virus transmission, it can be found that population mobility directly caused by human activities had a greater impact on virus transmission than temperature and humidity. The heterogeneity of meteorological factors can be accounted for by the diverse climate patterns in Brazil. The improved SEIR model was adopted to explore the interconnection of COVID-19 transmission and the environment, which revealed a new strategy to probe the causal links between them.</p></div></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"67 11","pages":"1789 - 1802"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2023-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9967701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
期刊
International Journal of Biometeorology
全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1