IJID regions最新文献

{"title":"From contaminated soils to urban communities: Tracing the cryptic transmission routes of Burkholderia pseudomallei ST-1996 in an expanding urban melioidosis hotspot","authors":"Ivan Tak-Fai Wong,&nbsp;Iain Chi-Fung Ng,&nbsp;Franklin Wang-Ngai Chow,&nbsp;Gilman Kit-Hang Siu","doi":"10.1016/j.ijregi.2024.100545","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijregi.2024.100545","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Introduction</h3><div>Melioidosis, caused by the bacterium <em>Burkholderia pseudomallei</em>, is on the rise globally, rarely emerging in urban centres. In Hong Kong, a dense city battered by typhoons, the novel sequence type <em>B. pseudomallei</em> ST-1996 has caused a deadly outbreak in 2022. Tracing its transmission routes is critical controlling these elusive bacteria.</div></div><div><h3>Material and Methods</h3><div>This multifaceted investigation built on prior identification of <em>B. pseudomallei</em> in high ground soils. Dye tracing and isolation mapped stormwater drainage connectivity downstream catchpits. Air sampling across varying distances from outlets during rapid rainwater flows assess airborne risks. 5000-L air were drawn onto Ashdown's agar and incubated aerobically at 35°C for 10 days.</div><div>In total, 88 clinical isolates from 2015-2023 and 54 environmental samples underwent analysis. Whole-genome sequencing and core-gene SNP phylogenetic analysis assessed genetic relatedness among isolates.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>A total of 864 environmental samples were collected across Sham Shui Po district. <em>B. pseudomallei</em> was isolated from 8 soil, 6 water, 41 air samples. Core-gene phylogeny revealed genomic clustering of ST-1996 strains from patient samples and environmental sources, sharing 97.51%-100% SNP identity over 1652 core-genes. Air sampling along the stormwater drainage network detected viable airborne ST-1996 up to 45 meters horizontally and 13 meters vertically from catchpit outlets, with concentrations increasing with rainfall intensity during typhoons. Of Sham Shui Po patients, 63% of cases were presented with pneumonia, supporting investigation of airborne transmission pathways.</div></div><div><h3>Discussion</h3><div>This integrated study uncovered ST-1996 transmission through interconnected environments, infecting communities via confined stormwater networks and wind-dispersed aerosols, resulting in predominate pneumonia after exposure. Urbanization obscures bacterial routes, but elucidating transmission dynamics through epidemiology, molecular biology and environmental science enables targeted control by guiding policymakers on interventions. With global warming intensifying typhoons, environmental tracing and weather-based preparedness can guide effective public health interventions to safeguard populations in emerging melioidosis hotspots worldwide.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":73335,"journal":{"name":"IJID regions","volume":"14 ","pages":"Article 100545"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143429668","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Association between public demand and sentiment and the newly confirmed cases of COVID-19 from 2020 to 2023: A time series and lag-correlation analysis","authors":"Wenxin Yan ,&nbsp;Shimo Zhang ,&nbsp;Zongchao Peng ,&nbsp;Min Liu ,&nbsp;Wannian Liang ,&nbsp;Jue Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.ijregi.2024.100536","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijregi.2024.100536","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Introduction</h3><div>Emerging infectious diseases continued to be a great threat to the whole world. Online public opinion, which reflected public demands and sentiments, was likely to contribute to the surveillance and prevention of the epidemics. However, the associations between the public demand and sentiment analyzed from online public opinion and epidemics remain unknown.</div></div><div><h3>Material and Methods</h3><div>We obtained text data from “People's Daily Online-Message Board for Leaders”, representing for online public opinion in this study. The period was divided into three stages, namely Containment stage (I), Ongoing Prevention and Control stage (II), and Steady Transition stage (III). We defined and explained the indicators of public demand and sentiment. Through natural language processing (NLP) technology, we conducted sentiment analysis on the message texts and described the trends of public demand and sentiment using interrupted time series analysis. Subsequently, we assessed the lag-correlations between the newly confirmed cases of COVID-19 and public demand/sentiment by stages.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>Public demand showed a L-shape trend in general, and public sentiment presented a U-shaped trend. Public demand and epidemic showed mainly positive lag-correlations (Stage I: rs=0.42, lag=+14, P&lt;0.001; Stage II: rs=0.46, lag=+8, P&lt;0.001). For public sentiment, it was negatively correlated with the epidemic in Stage I (rs=-0.2, lag=+10). Lag correlation between public sentiment and the epidemic was weak in Stage II, and varied in different lags in Stage III.</div></div><div><h3>Discussion</h3><div>The findings suggested robust associations between 8-days-posteriority public demand and the newly confirmed cases in Ongoing Prevention and Control stage, 10-days-priority public sentiment and the cases in Containment stage. This work introduced two potential monitor indicators and lag-correlation model on the real time warning, surveillance of emerging infectious diseases.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":73335,"journal":{"name":"IJID regions","volume":"14 ","pages":"Article 100536"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143429725","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Antibody kinetics following mRNA booster vaccination as correlates of protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection","authors":"Luis Ponce ,&nbsp;Yuqian Wang ,&nbsp;Ananya Singh ,&nbsp;Hoong Kai Chua ,&nbsp;Marc Chen ,&nbsp;Xuan Ying Poh ,&nbsp;Suma Rao ,&nbsp;Po Ying Chia ,&nbsp;Sean WX Ong ,&nbsp;Tau Hong Lee ,&nbsp;Ray JH Lin ,&nbsp;Clarissa Lim ,&nbsp;Jefanie Teo ,&nbsp;David Chien Lye ,&nbsp;Barnaby E Young ,&nbsp;Lisa FP Ng ,&nbsp;Pei Xiang Hor ,&nbsp;Chiew Yee Loh ,&nbsp;Laurent Renia ,&nbsp;Yun Shan Goh ,&nbsp;Keisuke Ejima","doi":"10.1016/j.ijregi.2024.100542","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijregi.2024.100542","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Introduction</h3><div>Understanding the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 antibody levels post-booster vaccination is crucial for optimizing vaccination strategies, as higher immunoglobulin responses are considered to correlate with reduced infection risk.</div></div><div><h3>Material and Methods</h3><div>Data were collected longitudinally from a cohort of healthcare workers at four time points: day of booster vaccination and 28, 180, and 360 days after. We utilized non-linear mixed effects models to map the trajectory of antibody kinetics for immunoglobulin A and G (IgA and IgG) binding (%) against the wild-type (WT) and Omicron BA.1 spike protein. Participants’ age, sex, type of mRNA vaccine, and timing of infection were considered as potential covariates, and best-fit models were chosen based on lowest statistical criteria. We then analyzed the association between each antibody isotype and risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in this cohort through Cox proportional hazards models, and predicted protection against infection.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>The best-fit antibody kinetics models showed that decay rates post-booster and growth rates post-infection were higher with Pfizer boosters compared to Moderna. Binding antibody growth rates post-infection were higher in the elderly, females, and those with late infections. In our survival analyses, after adjustment for age, sex, vaccine type, and time-varying COVID-19 incidence, having high (above 75th percentile) antibody levels for WT IgG and BA.1 IgA at booster response (day 28) showed significant reductions in infection risk; hazard ratio (HR) = 0.47 (0.22-0.98) and 0.36 (0.17-0.78) compared with low antibody levels (below 25th percentile), respectively. To account for antibody kinetics, we used time-varying antibody levels and found similar results, with HRs of 0.22 (0.07-0.74) per percent increase in binding against WT IgG and 0.09 (0.01-0.66) against BA.1 IgA, but with higher prediction ability (AIC and BIC). On average, ≥80% booster vaccination-elicited protection against infection lasts 155 days.</div></div><div><h3>Discussion</h3><div>In conclusion, antibody kinetics of WT IgG and BA.1 IgA are correlated with reduced infection risk. To predict infection risk with high accuracy, follow-up measurements of antibody levels are essential. Duration of protection estimates may be used to inform frequency of booster vaccinations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":73335,"journal":{"name":"IJID regions","volume":"14 ","pages":"Article 100542"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143429731","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Intentions for the prevention of hepatitis B and C among healthcare workers in a tertiary facility in Ghana","authors":"Yvonne Naa Duaba Cofie ,&nbsp;Vivian Efua Senoo-Dogbey ,&nbsp;Brightson Tettey Coffie Kennedy ,&nbsp;Moses Drah Tetteh ,&nbsp;Michael Matey Mensah","doi":"10.1016/j.ijregi.2025.100590","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijregi.2025.100590","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Objectives</h3><div>Hepatitis B and C virus (HBV and HCV, respectively) infections pose a significant occupational hazard to healthcare workers (HCWs) globally, with increased risk due to exposure to blood and body fluids. In Sub-Saharan Africa, including Ghana, the prevalence of these infections among HCWs remains high, despite existing prevention measures. Understanding the factors influencing HCWs’ preventive behaviors is crucial for developing effective interventions to reduce transmission risks in healthcare settings. This study aimed to assess HBV and HCV prevention intentions and related factors among HCWs at a tertiary hospital in Ghana.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>This cross-sectional, facility-based study was conducted using a quantitative approach. Two hundred HCWs were selected using stratified random sampling. The Theory of Planned Behavior was used as a conceptual framework to determine the behavioral intentions of HCWs toward the prevention of hepatitis B and C. Data were collected using structured questionnaires and analyzed using descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, and multiple linear regression. Cronbach's alpha was used to assess the internal consistency of the scales.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>Attitudes toward prevention were generally poor (M = 1.56 ± 0.56) and did not significantly influence preventive behaviors (β = 0.056, <em>P</em> = 0.427). Subjective norms showed a moderate positive influence (M = 3.14 ± 0.64, β = 0.208, <em>P</em> = 0.003). Self-efficacy emerged as the strongest predictor of preventive behaviors (M = 3.44 ± 0.59, β = 0.566, <em>P</em> <span><math><mo>&lt;</mo></math></span>0.001), followed by behavioral intentions (M = 3.55 ± 0.63, β = 0.321, <em>P</em> <span><math><mo>&lt;</mo></math></span>0.001).</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>Interventions aimed at enhancing self-efficacy and leveraging subjective norms may be most effective in improving HBV and HCV preventive behaviors among HCWs. These findings provide valuable insights for the development of targeted prevention strategies in healthcare settings, particularly in the Ghanaian context.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":73335,"journal":{"name":"IJID regions","volume":"14 ","pages":"Article 100590"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143419497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Prevalence and risk factors of intestinal schistosomiasis on students at Bochesa Elementary School, around the wetlands of Lake Ziway, Ethiopia","authors":"Ayalew Sisay","doi":"10.1016/j.ijregi.2025.100591","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijregi.2025.100591","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Objectives</h3><div>This study aimed to assess the prevalence and risk factors of intestinal schistosomiasis in students at Bochesa Elementary School in the wetlands of Lake Ziway.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>A cross-sectional study of 384 students was conducted in May 2016. Intestinal schistosomiasis was examined using the Kato-Katz technique. For the association between the prevalence of intestinal schistosomiasis and categorical variables, the chi-square (χ²) test was used. A binary logistic regression was applied.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>The overall prevalence of intestinal schistosomiasis was 25.52%. Males were more infected (17.45%) than women (8.07%), and the difference was significant (χ² = 17.756; <em>P</em> &lt;0.05). Lower grade (1–4) students were more infected (20.83%) than grade 5-8 students (4.69%), and the difference was significant (χ² = 19.558; <em>P</em> &lt;0.05). Age groups of 7-14-year-old students were more infected (24.74%) than &gt;15-year-old students (0.78%), and the difference was significant (χ² = 4.788; <em>P</em> &lt;0.05).</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>The result implied that the wetlands of Lake Ziway are conducive to schistosomiasis. Students should receive health education on the mode of schistosomiasis transmission and its prevention methods, and a buffer zone for the wetlands should be identified. Praziquantel treatment is crucial in reducing intestinal schistosomiasis in students.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":73335,"journal":{"name":"IJID regions","volume":"14 ","pages":"Article 100591"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143419496","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever, a real health problem in Iraq?","authors":"Masood Abdulkareem Abdulrahman","doi":"10.1016/j.ijregi.2025.100588","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijregi.2025.100588","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Objectives</h3><div>Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is the most widespread tick-borne viral disease worldwide. CCHF was not recognized in Iraq before 1979, after which many outbreaks occurred, and the disease became endemic with the re-emergence of outbreaks. This study aimed to analyze the epidemiology of the largest outbreak in Iraqi history in 2023.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>This retrospective study included human CCHF cases from 2023.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>2186 suspected cases were investigated. There were 587 confirmed cases, and 83 deaths, and an overall case fatality rate (14%). Among the confirmed cases, only 539 cases had complete data, and the analysis was performed on these cases. The majority 70.9% of patients lived in the southern provinces. Approximately 58% of the patients were male and up to half of the patients resided in rural areas. Approximately 45% of cases were in the 25-44 years age group. The occupations of the patients were as follows: 30% were housewives, 22% were butchers, 18% were animal owners, 30% had other occupations, and up to 60% had a history of exposure to fresh raw meat.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>The 2023 outbreak was the largest in Iraq in decades. The absence of preventive and control activities during the COVID-19 pandemic played an important role in the rise of cases and the presence of unlicensed and freelance slaughterers, especially during religious events played an important role in this epidemic.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":73335,"journal":{"name":"IJID regions","volume":"14 ","pages":"Article 100588"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143419495","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Burden of rotavirus and other microorganisms in hospitalized children with acute gastroenteritis in Yangon, Myanmar, before the introduction of rotavirus vaccine","authors":"Tatsuki Ikuse ,&nbsp;Yuta Aizawa ,&nbsp;Kazuhiro Kamata ,&nbsp;Khin Nyo Thein ,&nbsp;Di Ja Lasham ,&nbsp;Su Sandar Tun ,&nbsp;Nay Chi Win ,&nbsp;Su Mon Kyaw Win ,&nbsp;Ai Ito ,&nbsp;Mon Mon ,&nbsp;Aye Thida ,&nbsp;Aye Aye Khin ,&nbsp;Yuki Higashimoto ,&nbsp;Tetsushi Yoshikawa ,&nbsp;Satoshi Komoto ,&nbsp;Hisami Watanabe ,&nbsp;Reiko Saito ,&nbsp;Akihiko Saitoh","doi":"10.1016/j.ijregi.2025.100589","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijregi.2025.100589","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Objectives</h3><div>In developing countries, acute gastroenteritis (AGE) is a leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years. In Myanmar, no comprehensive study has been done to investigate the microorganisms responsible for AGE among hospitalized children. Multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was used to identify the microorganisms responsible for AGE in children hospitalized in Myanmar before the introduction of the rotavirus vaccine.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>This prospective study enrolled children younger than 12 years with AGE who were hospitalized at the Yankin Children's Hospital in Yangon, Myanmar, between September 2019 and February 2020. Multiplex PCR (FilmArray^TM GI panel, BioFire Diagnostics, Salt Lake City, USA) and genotyping with Sanger sequencing of rotavirus were performed. Clinical data, including disease severity, were collected from the medical records.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>We collected stool samples from 92 patients. Multiple microorganisms (median 3; interquartile range 2-4) were detected in 81 patients (88%). Rotavirus and norovirus were detected in 77 (84%) and 33 patients (36%), respectively. The most frequent bacterial pathogen detected was Enteroaggregative <em>E. coli</em> (n = 62/92, 67%). The most common rotavirus genotypes were G1P [<span><span>8</span></span>] (19/73; 26%) and G2P [<span><span>4</span></span>] (19/73; 26%).</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>Rotavirus is the predominant pathogen associated with AGE in hospitalized children in Myanmar. The introduction of a rotavirus vaccine will reduce the morbidity and mortality of children with rotavirus-associated AGE in Myanmar.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":73335,"journal":{"name":"IJID regions","volume":"14 ","pages":"Article 100589"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143455085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Challenges in managing gestational malaria due to Plasmodium vivax with severe complications: A clinical case from Colombia","authors":"Catalina Tovar-Acero ,&nbsp;Carlos Alberto Bolívar Pineda ,&nbsp;Eliud Daniel Pérez Vergara ,&nbsp;Nohra Díaz Cornejo ,&nbsp;Dina Ricardo-Caldera","doi":"10.1016/j.ijregi.2025.100586","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijregi.2025.100586","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Gestational malaria is a life-threatening disease that affects pregnant women in endemic regions. Infection with parasites of the genus Plasmodium, transmitted by infected mosquitoes, can trigger complications for the mother and fetus. We present the description of a clinical case of gestational malaria complicated by <em>Plasmodium vivax</em> in a 25-year-old multiparous patient in the third trimester of pregnancy from an endemic area in the department of Córdoba, Colombia. Admission to the intensive care unit for 3 days and an emergency cesarean section were necessary due to serious complications, such as anemia, severe thrombocytopenia, and hypertensive symptoms. Treatment included the use of chloroquine and red blood cell and platelet transfusions to address hematologic complications. After the cesarean section, the patient made a satisfactory recovery and was prescribed primaquine for 14 days. The importance of surveillance and adequate management of gestational malaria is highlighted to prevent serious complications during pregnancy and in the postpartum period. This clinical case highlights the complexity of gestational malaria and the need for a comprehensive approach to its management, with special attention to hematologic, hypertensive, and obstetric complications that may arise in this clinical context.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":73335,"journal":{"name":"IJID regions","volume":"14 ","pages":"Article 100586"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143349109","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Severe dengue–related deaths in the elderly population soared in Southern Brazil in 2024","authors":"Alexandre Sarmento Queiroga ,&nbsp;Danielly Alves Mendes Barbosa ,&nbsp;Tulio de Lima Campos ,&nbsp;Alexandre Vargas Schwarzbold ,&nbsp;Andre M. Siqueira ,&nbsp;Richard Steiner Salvato ,&nbsp;Gabriel Luz Wallau","doi":"10.1016/j.ijregi.2025.100577","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijregi.2025.100577","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Introduction</h3><div>Dengue fever is expanding worldwide on the track of climate change. In 2024, more than 14 million cases were reported. Around 6.5 million of those were reported in Brazil alone, reaching a staggering number of around 6000 deaths. Dengue lethality in severe cases were particularly high in Rio Grande do Sul, a historically less affected state which has witnessed an increased incidence and outbreaks in the last 4 years.</div></div><div><h3>Design</h3><div>In this report, we raised some hypotheses to explain the high lethality.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>Rio Grande do Sul has the highest proportion of elderly individuals among all states in Brazil. This factor, associated with the immunologically naive population, low levels of awareness to detect and treat severe dengue, and the difficulties in managing elderly patients, may have contributed to this higher lethality in severe dengue.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>The expected increasing dengue incidence in the region in the subsequent years highlights the urgent need of an integrated approach to raise awareness, reduce mosquito populations, and reduce dengue burden in the region, particularly, in the most vulnerable elderly population.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":73335,"journal":{"name":"IJID regions","volume":"14 ","pages":"Article 100577"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143378596","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Factors predictive of epidemic waves of COVID-19 in Africa during the first 2 years of the pandemic","authors":"Patient Wimba ,&nbsp;Aboubacar Diallo ,&nbsp;Amna Klich ,&nbsp;Léon Tshilolo ,&nbsp;Jean Iwaz ,&nbsp;Jean François Étard ,&nbsp;Philippe Vanhems ,&nbsp;René Ecochard ,&nbsp;Muriel Rabilloud","doi":"10.1016/j.ijregi.2025.100574","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijregi.2025.100574","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Objectives</h3><div>The objective was to study the epidemic wave curves, according to the characteristics of the countries, to identify the differences and the predictive factors of evolution.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>We have carried out modeling of the COVID-19 epidemic data from validated databases for 53 African countries.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>All countries recorded at least four waves. The duration of the waves had decreased over time (<em>P</em> &lt;0.001) and extended with the rainy season (<em>P</em> = 0.03). The incidence rates were higher for countries with the best development indicators (<em>P</em> &lt;0.001). Positive spatial autocorrelation was significant for all wave characteristics, except for relative amplitude at the end of the wave. The time-adjusted multivariate analysis identified seasons for duration (<em>P</em> = 0.017) and human development index for peak incidence rate (<em>P</em> &lt;0.001) and relative amplitude at the end of the wave (<em>P</em> = 0.041) as predictors of wave characteristics.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>The duration of the waves was influenced by the seasons and the study periods, the incidences by the economic development, and health indicators. The appearance of new variants seemed associated with the start of the waves. None of the factors studied is associated with an inflection and a decrease in the curve.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":73335,"journal":{"name":"IJID regions","volume":"14 ","pages":"Article 100574"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143403511","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}