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Illiberal regimes and international organizations 非自由主义政权和国际组织
Pub Date : 2024-08-02 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09556-1
Christina Cottiero, Emilie M. Hafner-Burton, Stephan Haggard, Lauren Prather, Christina J. Schneider

Illiberal regimes have become central players in international organizations. In this introduction to the special issue, we provide a unified framework for understanding their effects. We start by outlining the theoretical foundations of this work, focusing first on why regime type matters for international cooperation. We then show how differing memberships and decision-making processes within international organizations affect the influence illiberal regimes can wield, the activities they undertake, and the impact that they have on domestic political outcomes. Collectively and individually, the contributions to this special issue broaden the theoretical literature on illiberal regimes in international organizations and produce novel data about how they are implicated in the politics and operations of multilateral and regional IOs. This research has important implications for how democracies can and should cope with the challenges to global governance that arise from illiberal regimes.

非自由主义制度已成为国际组织中的核心角色。在本特刊的导言中,我们提供了一个统一的框架来理解它们的影响。我们首先概述了这项工作的理论基础,重点是为什么制度类型对国际合作很重要。然后,我们展示了国际组织中不同的成员资格和决策过程如何影响非自由政权的影响力、它们开展的活动以及它们对国内政治结果的影响。本特刊的文章无论从整体上还是从个体上都拓宽了关于国际组织中的非自由主义制度的理论文献,并提供了新的数据,说明非自由主义制度是如何卷入多边和地区性国际组织的政治和运作中的。这项研究对民主国家如何应对以及应该如何应对非自由制度给全球治理带来的挑战具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Is context pretext? Institutionalized commitments and the situational politics of foreign economic policy 背景是借口吗?对外经济政策的制度化承诺和情境政治
Pub Date : 2024-07-30 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09560-5
Ryan Powers

Does the public care if their leaders fail to uphold or comply with their country’s standing international commitments? If so, under what conditions? I study this question in the context of attitudes toward institutionalized trade cooperation. Using survey experiments, I find that the public has a pronounced taste for compliance that is largely independent of the underlying political and economic context. The public is less willing to endorse the imposition of trade restrictions when doing so would violate standing trade agreements. This is the case even in contexts where the public would otherwise support protectionist policy: when the unemployment rate is high, when there are a large number of jobs at stake, and when the trade partner has recently failed to honor their own trade commitments. I find little in the way of copartisanship dynamics, but document strong dispositional effects in which those not predisposed to view international cooperation in a positive light impose systematically smaller punishments on leaders who violate treaty commitments.

公众是否关心他们的领导人未能维护或遵守本国的长期国际承诺?如果会,在什么条件下会在乎?我结合对制度化贸易合作的态度来研究这个问题。通过调查实验,我发现公众对遵守承诺有一种明显的偏好,这种偏好在很大程度上与政治和经济背景无关。如果实施贸易限制会违反长期贸易协定,那么公众就不太愿意支持这样做。即使是在公众本来会支持保护主义政策的情况下:失业率高企、大量工作岗位岌岌可危、贸易伙伴最近未能履行自己的贸易承诺时,情况也是如此。我几乎没有发现共党动态,但记录了强烈的倾向性效应,即那些不倾向于从积极角度看待国际合作的人对违反条约承诺的领导人施加了系统性的较小惩罚。
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引用次数: 0
Zombies ahead: Explaining the rise of low-quality election monitoring 前方有僵尸解释低质量选举监督的兴起
Pub Date : 2024-07-26 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09554-3
Sarah Sunn Bush, Christina Cottiero, Lauren Prather

The international election monitoring regime has become considerably more complex in the twenty-first century. Although the number of organizations engaged in high-quality election monitoring has plateaued, the number of low-quality monitors—commonly known as zombie monitors—has continued to grow. Low-quality election monitors threaten democracy because they validate flawed elections and undermine the legitimacy of the international election monitoring regime. This article argues that international politics have played a crucial role in the diffusion of low-quality election monitors. It hypothesizes that ties with autocratic powers that promote low-quality observers and membership in authoritarian regional organizations significantly increase the likelihood that a country will host low-quality monitors at its elections. To test the hypotheses, the article draws on original data on international election observation between 2000 and 2020 that identifies the most comprehensive set of groups of election monitors to-date. A statistical analysis of the dataset supports the argument.

国际选举监督制度在二十一世纪变得更加复杂。虽然参与高质量选举监督的组织数量已趋于稳定,但低质量监督者--俗称 "僵尸监督者"--的数量却在持续增长。低质量的选举监督者威胁着民主,因为他们验证了有缺陷的选举,破坏了国际选举监督制度的合法性。本文认为,国际政治在低质量选举监督员的扩散中起到了至关重要的作用。文章假设,如果一个国家与助长低质量观察员的专制大国有联系,并且是专制区域组织的成员,那么该国在选举中接纳低质量监督员的可能性就会大大增加。为了验证上述假设,文章利用了 2000 年至 2020 年国际选举观察的原始数据,这些数据确定了迄今为止最全面的选举监督员群体。对数据集的统计分析支持了这一论点。
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引用次数: 0
Are authoritative international organizations challenged more? A recurrent event analysis of member state criticisms and withdrawals 权威性国际组织是否受到更多挑战?对成员国批评和退出的经常性事件分析
Pub Date : 2024-07-19 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09557-0
Hylke Dijkstra, Farsan Ghassim

Member states’ challenges to international organizations (IOs) are at the heart of the supposed crisis of our multilateral order – from the “African bias” debate surrounding the International Criminal Court, to the United Kingdom’s “Brexit” from the European Union, to Trump’s attacks on the World Health Organization during the COVID-19 pandemic. IOs are regularly challenged by their member states in different ways, ranging from verbal criticisms to withdrawals. But why are some IOs challenged more than others? An important – but so far largely theoretical – academic debate relates to the authority of IOs as an explanatory factor for why some face more challenges: Authoritative IOs may invite more challenges (for example, due to domestic contestation) or fewer challenges (due, in part, to the investment of member states and their greater capacity to resolve conflicts internally). Our article assesses these explanations using the Andersen-Gill approach for analyzing recurrent events of member states’ public criticisms and withdrawals. We do not find strong and consistent evidence that more authoritative IOs are more regularly challenged by their own member states. There is some evidence that authoritative IOs experience fewer withdrawals, but we find stronger evidence for alternative factors such as preference heterogeneity between members, the existence of alternative IOs, and the democratic composition of an IO’s membership. Our study is significant for scholarly debates and real-world politics, as it implies that granting IOs more authority does not make them more prone to member state challenges.

从围绕国际刑事法院的 "非洲偏见 "辩论,到英国 "脱欧",再到特朗普在 COVID-19 大流行期间对世界卫生组织的攻击,会员国对国际组织(IOs)的挑战是我们多边秩序所谓危机的核心。国际组织经常受到其成员国不同方式的挑战,从口头批评到退出。但为什么有些国际组织比其他国际组织受到更多的挑战呢?一个重要的--但迄今为止主要是理论性的--学术争论涉及到国际组织的权威性,这是解释为什么一些国际组织面临更多挑战的一个因素:具有权威性的国际组织可能会招致更多的挑战(例如,由于国内的争论)或更少的挑战(部分原因是由于成员国的投资及其更强的内部解决冲突的能力)。我们的文章采用安徒生-吉尔方法对这些解释进行了评估,分析了成员国公开批评和退出的经常性事件。我们没有发现有力而一致的证据表明,更具权威性的国际组织更经常受到其成员国的质疑。有一些证据表明,权威性国际组织经历的退出事件较少,但我们发现有更有力的证据表明存在其他因素,如成员国之间的偏好异质性、替代性国际组织的存在以及国际组织成员的民主构成。我们的研究对学术辩论和现实政治都具有重要意义,因为它意味着赋予国际组织更多权威并不会使它们更容易受到成员国的挑战。
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引用次数: 0
The life cycle of international cooperation: Introduction to the special issue 国际合作的生命周期:特刊导言
Pub Date : 2024-07-11 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09558-z
Julia Gray

International organizations’ lives often extend far beyond the moment of their initial contracting. How IOs do adapt to shifting circumstances in their member states global geopolitical changes, and even internal dynamics within the IO itself? This special issue on the life cycle of international cooperation explores the ebbs and flows of the IOs that underpin the international system. Firm theory, organizational sociology, and agency theory all have incorporated life cycles perspectives into the study of organizations, but IR has yet to fully harness these frameworks. A life cycles approach centers on, first, incorporating the IO itself as the core unit of analysis and, second, the dynamic processes within IOs — including life stages such as false starts, consolidation, inertia, growth, revitalization, death, and succession. Incorporating these dynamic processes into our understanding of IOs reminds us that historically, IOs have always experienced periods of both flourishing and faltering. Grasping the mechanisms that drive these changes is indispensable for a thorough understanding of the international system’s vitality and resilience. Articles in this issue explore the durability of IOs in the face of crises; the measures that IOs deploy to legitimize their existence; the role of individual leaders’ rhetoric in IO vitality; the tradeoffs that member states face between pulling the plug on an IO versus creating a new institution; the effect of member-state IO withdrawal on the international system overall; and the mass public’s perceptions of such withdrawals.

国际组织的寿命往往远远超过其最初签约的那一刻。国际组织如何适应其成员国不断变化的情况、全球地缘政治变化,甚至国际组织本身的内部动态?本特刊以国际合作的生命周期为主题,探讨了支撑国际体系的国际组织的起伏变化。企业理论、组织社会学和代理理论都将生命周期视角纳入了组织研究,但国际关系学尚未充分利用这些框架。生命周期方法的核心在于:第一,将国际组织本身作为分析的核心单位;第二,国际组织内部的动态过程--包括虚假启动、巩固、惰性、增长、振兴、死亡和继承等生命阶段。将这些动态过程纳入我们对国际组织的理解,提醒我们从历史上看,国际组织总是经历过繁荣和衰败的时期。要透彻理解国际体系的活力和复原力,就必须掌握驱动这些变化的机制。本期文章探讨了国际组织在面对危机时的持久性;国际组织为使其存在合法化而采取的措施;个别领导人的言论在国际组织活力中的作用;成员国在撤出国际组织与建立新机构之间的权衡;成员国撤出国际组织对整个国际体系的影响;以及公众对这种撤出的看法。
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引用次数: 0
The defocalizing effect of international courts: Evidence from maritime delimitation practices 国际法院的非地方化效应:海洋划界实践的证据
Pub Date : 2024-06-29 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09545-4
Ezgi Yildiz, Umut Yüksel

Can international courts influence state policies and facilitate interstate cooperation? Existing literature argues that they can. Courts can make cooperative outcomes easier for states by formulating or endorsing rules around which state expectations and practice can converge. While it is widely assumed that court rulings may become focal points and play a role in harmonizing state practices, we know little about the conditions under which they have such an effect. We suggest that court rulings can often have an opposite, defocalizing effect, which may durably harm the prospects of convergence around what the law requires. We introduce defocalization as a process and discuss its possible types and implications. We argue that defocalization may be driven by incongruence of court rulings with existing treaty law and state practice and inconsistency of rulings over time. We illustrate our argument by examining the effect of key judicial rulings on the convergence of state views about the appropriate maritime delimitation rules by relying on an original dataset. Our findings show how defocalization unfolds and suggest that complexity can accumulate over time through legal rulings that are incongruent with existing state practice or treaty law, and can be maintained through inconsistent court decisions.

国际法院能否影响国家政策并促进国家间合作?现有文献认为可以。法院可以通过制定或认可一些规则,使各国的期望和实践趋于一致,从而使各国更容易取得合作成果。虽然人们普遍认为法院裁决可能成为协调各州实践的焦点并发挥作用,但我们对法院裁决在何种条件下产生这种效果知之甚少。我们认为,法院裁决往往会产生相反的 "去焦点化 "效应,这可能会持久地损害围绕法律要求达成一致的前景。我们将 "去焦点化 "作为一个过程来介绍,并讨论其可能的类型和影响。我们认为,法院裁决与现行条约法和国家实践不一致,以及裁决随着时间的推移而不一致,都可能导致偏移。为了说明我们的论点,我们利用原始数据集研究了关键司法裁决对各国关于适当海洋划界规则的意见趋同所产生的影响。我们的研究结果表明了非本地化是如何展开的,并表明复杂性可以通过与现有国家实践或条约法不一致的法律裁决随着时间的推移而累积,并可以通过不一致的法院裁决而得以维持。
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引用次数: 0
Good governance in autocratic international organizations 专制国际组织的善治
Pub Date : 2024-06-29 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09550-7
Emilie Hafner-Burton, Jon C. W. Pevehouse, Christina J. Schneider

A large and growing number of international organizations (IOs) are made up and governed by illiberal or outright authoritarian regimes. Many of these authoritarian IOs (AIOs) formally adopt good governance mandates, linking goals like democracy promotion, anti-corruption policies and human rights to their broader mission. Why do some AIOs adopt good governance mandates that appear to conflict with the norms and standards these regimes apply at home? We argue that AIOs adopt good governance mandates when they face substantial pressure from inside or outside the IO to adopt them. Central to our argument is that not all aspects of good governance are inherently or equally threatening to autocratic regimes. They pursue strategies that minimize the threat by externalizing policy outside the membership and strategically defining the goals to avoid or enact. This allows autocratic governments to uptake good governance talk but lessen any deep commitment to the norms and sometimes even to use them strategically to project their own power outside of the organization. Using data on 48 regional IOs with primarily autocratic membership between 1945 and 2015, we demonstrate that AIOs facing pressure from external good governance promoters will adopt good governance mandates but strategically shape those mandates in their favor if they can form bargaining coalitions with like-minded governments. The findings have sobering implications for the future of good governance promotion through IOs.

越来越多的国际组织(IOs)是由不自由或完全专制的政权组成和管理的。其中许多专制国际组织(AIOs)正式通过了善治任务,将促进民主、反腐败政策和人权等目标与其更广泛的使命联系起来。为什么一些 AIOs 采取的善治任务似乎与这些政权在国内适用的规范和标准相冲突?我们认为,当国际组织面临来自内部或外部的巨大压力时,它们会采取善治任务。我们论证的核心是,并非善治的所有方面对专制政权都具有内在或同等的威胁。专制政权通过将政策外部化,将威胁降至最低,并从战略上确定要避免或颁布的目标。这就使专制政府能够接受善治的言论,但减少对准则的深刻承诺,有时甚至战略性地利用这些准则在组织外推行自己的权力。利用 1945 年至 2015 年间 48 个主要由专制成员组成的地区性国际组织的数据,我们证明,面临外部善治推动者压力的地区性国际组织会采纳善治任务,但如果它们能与志同道合的政府形成讨价还价的联盟,则会战略性地塑造这些任务,使其对自己有利。这些发现对未来通过国际组织促进善治具有警示意义。
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引用次数: 0
Economic crises and the survival of international organizations 经济危机与国际组织的生存
Pub Date : 2024-06-14 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09549-0
Yoram Z. Haftel, Bar Nadel

How do hard economic times affect countries’ foreign policy and, specifically, their international commitments? Although a large body of literature assumes that economic crises lead to the prioritization of domestic politics at the expense of international cooperation, these claims are rarely subjected to systematic empirical tests. This study examines one important aspect of these relationships: the consequences of economic crises for the survival of international organizations (IOs), a question that attracted only scant scholarly attention to date. Theoretically, we argue that even though economic crises can weaken member states’ commitment to IOs, they also underscore their ability to tackle the root causes of such crises and mitigate their most pernicious effects. As such, economic crises are actually conducive to IO longevity. We expect this effect to be especially pronounced for currency crises, IOs with an economic mandate, and regional IOs, given their particular relevance for international cooperation during hard economic times. These conjectures are tested with a comprehensive sample of IOs and data on currency, banking and sovereign debt crises from 1970 to 2014. Using event history models and controlling for several alternative explanations of IO survival, we find ample empirical support for the theoretical expectations.

经济困难时期如何影响各国的外交政策,特别是其国际承诺?虽然大量文献都认为经济危机会导致国内政治优先而牺牲国际合作,但这些说法很少经过系统的实证检验。本研究探讨了这些关系的一个重要方面:经济危机对国际组织(IOs)生存的影响。从理论上讲,我们认为,尽管经济危机会削弱成员国对国际组织的承诺,但同时也凸显了成员国解决危机根源并减轻其最恶劣影响的能力。因此,经济危机实际上有利于国际组织的长期存在。我们预计这种效应对于货币危机、负有经济使命的国际组织和区域性国际组织尤为明显,因为它们在经济困难时期对国际合作具有特殊意义。我们利用国际组织的综合样本以及 1970 年至 2014 年的货币、银行和主权债务危机数据对这些猜想进行了检验。利用事件史模型并控制国际组织生存的几种替代解释,我们发现理论预期得到了充分的经验支持。
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引用次数: 0
Weapons of the weak state: How post-conflict states shape international statebuilding 弱国的武器:冲突后国家如何塑造国际国家建设
Pub Date : 2024-06-11 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09546-3
Susanna P. Campbell, Aila M. Matanock

International Organizations (IOs), such as the United Nations (U.N.), engage in statebuilding in a range of post-conflict states. Statebuilding scholarship largely assumes that IOs, backed by their powerful member states, have at least temporary authority over the seemingly “weak” states in which they intervene. We argue, in contrast, that many post-conflict states shape IO statebuilding efforts through many statebuilding contracts, which we call incomplete arrangements, that give the post-conflict state the residual rights of control over the unnegotiated components of these statebuilding contracts with IOs. These incomplete arrangements, as opposed to complete takeovers, which are the other type of statebuilding contracts, provide procedural “weapons of the weak state” that enable the post-conflict state to influence what the IO mandate contains, where it intervenes, whom it hires, and when it exits. Using in-depth case studies of Burundi, Guatemala, and Timor-Leste, as well as analysis of 36 U.N. interventions in post-conflict states from 2000–2020, this article demonstrates the potential of incomplete arrangement statebuilding contracts to give post-conflict states institutional power over IO statebuilders, with important implications for scholarship on statebuilding and global governance.

联合国(U.N. )等国际组织参与了一系列冲突后国家的国家建设。国家建设学术研究大多假定,国际组织在其强大的成员国支持下,对其干预的看似 "弱小 "的国家至少拥有暂时的权威。与此相反,我们认为,许多冲突后国家通过许多建国契约(我们称之为不完全安排)来塑造国际组织的建国努力,这些契约赋予冲突后国家对这些与国际组织的建国契约中未经谈判的部分的剩余控制权。与完全接管(另一种类型的国家建设合同)不同,这些不完全安排提供了程序性的 "弱国武器",使冲突后国家能够影响国际组织的任务内容、干预地点、雇用人员以及退出时间。本文通过对布隆迪、危地马拉和东帝汶的深入案例研究,以及对 2000-2020 年间联合国在冲突后国家的 36 次干预行动的分析,展示了不完全安排建国合同赋予冲突后国家对国际组织建国者的制度权力的潜力,对建国和全球治理的学术研究具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Treaty withdrawal and the development of international law 退出条约与国际法的发展
Pub Date : 2024-06-06 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09553-4
Averell Schmidt

I argue that treaty withdrawal has two opposing effects on the development of international law. First, it directly impacts the treaty where it occurs by pushing the remaining members to adopt reforms to maintain cooperation. Second, it indirectly affects the development of other treaties by damaging diplomatic relations between the withdrawing state and other members, hindering negotiations in other areas of cooperation. Consequentially, treaty withdrawal has a mixed impact on the development of international law: it expedites the reform of one treaty while inhibiting reform elsewhere. I test this argument by applying a difference-in-differences design to an original panel of treaties built from the records of the United Nations. My findings reveal that while withdrawal increases the number of reforms in treaties where it occurs, it decreases reforms in similar treaties with comparable memberships. The indirect effect more than cancels out the direct effect. Overall, treaty withdrawal impedes the creation of new international laws.

我认为,条约退出对国际法的发展有两种相反的影响。首先,退约直接影响所在条约,促使其余成员进行改革以维持合作。其次,退约会破坏退约国与其他成员之间的外交关系,阻碍其他合作领域的谈判,从而间接影响其他条约的发展。因此,退出条约对国际法发展的影响好坏参半:它加快了一个条约的改革,同时抑制了其他条约的改革。我对根据联合国记录建立的原始条约小组进行了差异设计,从而验证了这一论点。我的研究结果表明,虽然退出会增加条约改革的数量,但却会减少成员数量相当的类似条约的改革。间接影响抵消了直接影响。总体而言,退出条约阻碍了新国际法的制定。
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引用次数: 0
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The review of international organizations
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