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Leaders in the United Nations General Assembly: Revitalization or politicization? 联合国大会的领导人:振兴还是政治化?
Pub Date : 2024-01-27 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-023-09524-1
Alexander Baturo, Julia Gray

How do leaders address the world in service of international cooperation, and do their messages enhance or detract from the global agenda? Leaders increasingly appear at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), a deliberative forum meant for diplomacy, not politics. At the same time, the UNGA has long undergone revitalization efforts, and leaders’ contributions could potentially ensure more meaningful cooperation. Building on theories of leader communication, we argue that, in contrast to other country representatives, heads of state have more leeway to deviate from the assembly’s priorities; as politicians, they have incentives to discuss their own, more particularistic, topics. Drawing from novel data on leaders’ speeches in the UNGA, we use text analytics to show that leaders tend to depart from the policy agenda of the session. Furthermore, national political leaders speak more plainly, centering speech on themselves and departing from the general conventions of diplomatic debate. This suggests that, while leaders’ attendance potentially generates more publicity and visibility for the UNGA, their contributions may also undermine the general debate. Our findings shed light on the ways in which leaders can politicize mulitlateral cooperation, and we give evidence for the role of individuals in the vitality of international organizations.

为促进国际合作,领导人如何向世界发表讲话?他们的讲话是加强还是削弱了全球议程?各国领导人越来越多地出现在联合国大会(UNGA)上,这是一个为外交而非政治而设的议事论坛。同时,联合国大会长期以来一直在努力振兴,领导人的贡献有可能确保更有意义的合作。在领导人沟通理论的基础上,我们认为,与其他国家代表相比,国家元首有更大的余地偏离大会的优先事项;作为政治家,他们有动力讨论自己的、更加特殊的话题。我们利用有关领导人在联大发言的新数据,通过文本分析表明,领导人倾向于偏离会议的政策议程。此外,国家政治领导人的发言更加直白,以自己为中心,偏离了外交辩论的一般惯例。这表明,虽然领导人的出席可能会为联大带来更多的宣传和知名度,但他们的发言也可能会破坏一般性辩论。我们的研究结果揭示了领导人将多边合作政治化的方式,并为个人在国际组织活力中的作用提供了证据。
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引用次数: 0
Competing judgments: Multiple election observers and post-election contention 相互竞争的判断:多名选举观察员和选举后的争论
Pub Date : 2024-01-19 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-023-09528-x
Kelly Morrison, Daniela Donno, Burcu Savun, Perisa Davutoglu

By influencing beliefs about electoral quality, international election observation missions (EOMs) play an important role in shaping post-election contention. As the number and variety of international organizations (IOs) involved in election observation has grown, many elections host multiple missions and disagreement among them is common. This phenomenon of competing judgments is particularly prevalent in electoral authoritarian regimes, as leaders seek to invite ‘friendly’ IOs to counteract possible criticism from more established EOMs. Drawing from research about the varying domestic credibility of EOMs and the demobilizing effects of disinformation, we argue that compared to unified criticism, competing judgments among EOMs increase uncertainty about electoral quality, which in turn dampens post-election contention. Using newly available data on EOM statements as reported in the international media, we show that competing judgments reduce post-election contention in a sample of 115 countries from 1990–2012. A survey experiment in Turkey solidifies the micro-foundations of our argument: individuals exposed to competing judgments have more positive perceptions of election quality and less support for post-election mobilization, compared to those receiving information only about EOM criticism. Our findings provide systematic evidence that governments holding flawed elections have incentives to invite multiple election observation missions to hedge against the political risks of criticism.

国际选举观察团(EOMs)通过影响人们对选举质量的看法,在形成选举后的争议方面发挥着重要作用。随着参与选举观察的国际组织(IOs)的数量和种类不断增加,许多选举都会接待多个观察团,而观察团之间的意见分歧也很常见。这种相互竞争判断的现象在选举专制政权中尤为普遍,因为领导人试图邀请 "友好的 "国际组织来抵消更成熟的选举观察团可能提出的批评。借鉴有关选举观察团在国内的不同可信度和虚假信息的去动员化效应的研究,我们认为,与统一批评相比,选举观察团之间的竞争性判断会增加选举质量的不确定性,这反过来又会抑制选举后的争论。利用国际媒体报道的选举观察团声明的最新数据,我们表明,在 1990-2012 年的 115 个国家样本中,竞争性判断减少了选举后的争议。在土耳其进行的一项调查实验巩固了我们论点的微观基础:与那些只接收到选举观察团批评信息的人相比,接触到竞争性判断的人对选举质量的看法更积极,对选举后动员的支持更少。我们的研究结果提供了系统性证据,表明举行有缺陷选举的政府有动机邀请多个选举观察团,以规避批评带来的政治风险。
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引用次数: 0
Catching flies with vinegar or honey? Shaming, praising, and public support for international agreements 用醋还是蜂蜜捕捉苍蝇?国际协议的羞辱、赞美和公众支持
Pub Date : 2024-01-15 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09529-4

Abstract

How does international shaming and praising affect domestic support for joining international agreements? Many scholars have examined the role of shaming in leading countries to support international agreements, and a wide literature on social opprobrium suggests that both governments and citizens are sensitive to being named and shamed. Yet far less is known about the dynamics of praise in international relations and how they compare to the dynamics of shame. This article uses a survey experiment to test and compare the effects of praising and shaming on individuals’ support for their government joining an international agreement. Specifically, it tests whether praising or shaming from other countries leads individuals to support their country joining a hypothetical international agreement that would ban the use of explosive weapons. It finds that praising is effective in increasing public support for joining the treaty, while shaming is not. By examining the extent to which praising and shaming can shape public opinion on international security agreements, this article provides new insights regarding how states and NGOs can use these rhetorical tools to build support for new legal norms. For policymakers and activists seeking to promote new norms and agreements, understanding the role of praising and shaming in changing public opinion can help them better direct their resources and improve their strategies.

摘要 国际上的羞辱和赞扬如何影响国内对加入国际协定的支持?许多学者研究了羞辱在引导国家支持国际协议中的作用,大量关于社会指责的文献表明,政府和公民对被点名和羞辱都很敏感。然而,人们对国际关系中赞美的动力以及它们与羞辱的动力之间的比较却知之甚少。本文通过一个调查实验来检验和比较赞美和羞辱对个人支持其政府加入国际协议的影响。具体而言,文章检验了其他国家的赞扬或羞辱是否会导致个人支持本国加入一项禁止使用爆炸性武器的假定国际协议。研究发现,赞美能有效增加公众对加入条约的支持,而羞辱则不然。通过研究赞美和羞辱能在多大程度上影响公众对国际安全协议的看法,本文就国家和非政府组织如何利用这些修辞工具为新的法律规范争取支持提供了新的见解。对于寻求推广新规范和新协议的政策制定者和活动家来说,了解赞美和羞辱在改变公众舆论中的作用有助于他们更好地引导资源和改进策略。
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引用次数: 0
Populism and public attitudes toward international organizations: Voting, communication, and education 民粹主义与公众对国际组织的态度:投票、交流和教育
Pub Date : 2024-01-13 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-023-09526-z
Osman Sabri Kiratli, Bernd Schlipphak

What effect does populism have on public attitudes toward International Organizations (IOs)? In this article, we differentiate for the first time between populist communication – understood as IO criticism in line with populist core ideas – and populist voting as political behavior among citizens. We argue, first, that populist voters – that is, citizens voting for a populist party – are more critical of IOs. Second, IO-critical communication based on the democratic deficit of global governance and the loss of national sovereignty that populist parties often adopt have a substantially damaging impact on public IO attitudes. Third, we propose that the negative effect of IO-critical communication should be stronger among populist voters, and, fourth, considerably vary among groups of different educational levels. To test our theoretical expectations, we first turn to World Values Survey data (7th wave) and demonstrate that populist voters are significantly more skeptical of IOs than non-populist voters, while the effect of populist voting is strongest for more educated citizens. Second, we use a preregistered survey experiment to explore the effect of IO-critical communication on IO favorability and determine if populist voting and educational levels moderate these communication effects. Our findings reveal that IO-critical communication substantially decreases confidence in IOs. Populist and non-populist voters do not differ in their susceptibility, yet IO-critical communication exerts its greatest effects among the higher educated.

民粹主义对公众对国际组织(IOs)的态度有何影响?在本文中,我们首次区分了民粹主义传播(可理解为符合民粹主义核心理念的国际组织批评)和作为公民政治行为的民粹主义投票。我们认为,首先,民粹主义选民(即投票支持民粹主义政党的公民)对国际组织更具批判性。其次,民粹主义政党经常采用的基于全球治理的民主赤字和国家主权丧失的国际组织批判性传播方式对公众的国际组织态度产生了实质性的破坏性影响。第三,我们提出,国际组织批判性传播的负面影响在民粹主义选民中应该更强;第四,在不同教育水平的群体中存在很大差异。为了验证我们的理论预期,我们首先利用世界价值观调查(第七波)的数据,证明民粹主义选民对国际组织的怀疑程度明显高于非民粹主义选民,而民粹主义投票对受教育程度较高的公民的影响最大。其次,我们利用预先登记的调查实验来探讨国际组织批判性传播对国际组织好感度的影响,并确定民粹主义投票和教育水平是否会缓和这些传播效果。我们的研究结果表明,对国际组织进行批评式传播会大大降低人们对国际组织的信心。民粹主义投票者和非民粹主义投票者在易受影响程度上没有差异,但IO批判性传播对受教育程度较高者的影响最大。
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引用次数: 0
Kseniya Oksamytna. 2023. Advocacy and Change in International Organizations: Communication, Protection, and Reconstruction in UN Peacekeeping. (Oxford: Oxford University Press) 克谢尼娅-奥克萨米特娜2023.Advocacy and Change in International Organizations:联合国维和行动中的沟通、保护与重建》。(牛津:牛津大学出版社)。
Pub Date : 2024-01-12 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-023-09523-2
Ben Christian
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引用次数: 0
Ideological cleavages beyond the nation-state: The emergence of transnational political groups in international parliaments 超越民族国家的意识形态分裂:国际议会中跨国政治团体的出现
Pub Date : 2024-01-09 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-023-09522-3
Siyana Gurova

Territorial divisions are commonly believed to dominate the international realm, supposedly leaving no room for ideological distinctions to take shape. However, the formation of over fifty transnational political groups (TPGs) across thirteen international parliaments challenges this assumption, calling into question the previously accepted insignificance of ideology beyond the boundaries of the nation-state. Previously unexplored in comparative perspective, this paper investigates TPGs’ puzzling existence and delineates the conditions for their emergence within international parliaments. The theoretical argument is that homogeneity across the member states of the international parliament along three dimensions – political systems, economic development levels and geographical proximity – fosters the creation of transnational political groups. Results from regression analysis on time series cross-sectional data lend support to the theory. With the rise of international parliamentary institutions and their increased involvement in supranational decision-making over time, it becomes highly important to understand how they organize as well as the implications of their institutional designs.

人们普遍认为,领土划分主导着国际领域,意识形态的区分理应无从谈起。然而,在十三个国际议会中形成的五十多个跨国政治团体(TPGs)挑战了这一假设,使人们对以往公认的意识形态在民族国家边界之外的无足轻重性提出了质疑。本文以前从未从比较的角度对 TPGs 进行过探讨,它研究了 TPGs 令人费解的存在,并勾勒出它们在国际议会中出现的条件。本文的理论论点是,国际议会成员国在政治制度、经济发展水平和地理邻近性三个维度上的同质性促进了跨国政治集团的产生。对时间序列横截面数据的回归分析结果为这一理论提供了支持。随着时间的推移,国际议会机构的崛起及其在超国家决策中的参与度不断提高,了解它们的组织方式及其制度设计的影响变得非常重要。
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引用次数: 0
Influence and support for foreign aid: Evidence from the United States and China 对外援助的影响和支持:来自美国和中国的证据
Pub Date : 2023-12-22 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-023-09520-5
Austin Strange
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引用次数: 0
Do corporate regulations deter or stimulate investment? The effect of the OECD anti-bribery convention on FDI 公司法规是阻碍还是刺激投资?经合组织反贿赂公约对外国直接投资的影响
Pub Date : 2023-12-20 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-023-09519-y
Lorenzo Crippa

Countries prohibit firms’ transnational financial crime by coordinating their regulations under international organizations (IOs). Under these IOs, states threaten to prosecute firms’ foreign misconduct at home. Such threats can help conscript companies to diffuse sustainable business models abroad. This paper studies the effect of corporate criminal regulations on firms’ foreign direct investment (FDI). Critics of these policies claim they push firms’ investment away from host economies where financial crime is more likely to happen. Yet, regulations should also cut informal costs of crime and favor investment. I reconcile these opposed expectations and show they are special cases of the same argument. I claim that the effect of multilateral anti-bribery policies on FDI depends on the level of corruption of the host economy. It is null in non-corrupt countries. It is positive where corruption is moderate: here, laws provide legal leverage to refuse paying bribes and cut corruption costs. The effect is negative where corruption is endemic: here, anti-bribery laws expose firms to additional regulatory costs. I support the argument with multiple evidence. Company-level data on investment by 3871 firms between 2006 and 2011 show that regulated corporations have a (27%) higher probability of investing in moderately corrupt economies than unregulated firms, which plummets to (-52%) in extremely corrupt countries. A synthetic counterfactual design using country-dyadic FDI flows corroborates this finding. Results show that regulatory policies harmonized by IOs change international competition for FDI in ways that do not necessarily harm regulated firms.

各国通过在国际组织(IOs)下协调其法规来禁止公司的跨国金融犯罪。根据这些国际组织,各国威胁要在国内起诉企业在国外的不当行为。这种威胁有助于迫使企业在国外推广可持续的商业模式。本文研究企业刑事法规对企业对外直接投资(FDI)的影响。这些政策的批评者声称,它们将企业的投资从更有可能发生金融犯罪的东道国经济中推开。然而,监管也应降低犯罪的非正式成本,有利于投资。我调和了这些相反的预期,并证明它们是同一论点的特例。我声称,多边反贿赂政策对外国直接投资的影响取决于东道国经济的腐败程度。在不腐败的国家,这种影响是无效的。在腐败程度适中的国家,这种影响是积极的:在这种情况下,法律提供了拒绝行贿和降低腐败成本的法律杠杆。在腐败盛行的国家,反贿赂法的影响是负面的:反贿赂法使企业面临额外的监管成本。我用多种证据支持这一论点。2006年至2011年间3871家公司的公司层面投资数据显示,与不受监管的公司相比,受监管的公司在中度腐败经济体的投资概率更高,而在极端腐败的国家,这一概率则骤降至(-52%)。利用国家十年期外国直接投资流量进行的合成反事实设计证实了这一结论。结果表明,国际组织协调的监管政策以不一定损害受监管企业的方式改变了外国直接投资的国际竞争。
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引用次数: 0
Lisa Dellmuth and Jonas Tallberg. 2023. Legitimacy Politics: Elite Communication and Public Opinion in Global Governance. (New York: Cambridge University Press) Lisa Dellmuth 和 Jonas Tallberg。2023.Legitimacy Politics:Elite Communication and Public Opinion in Global Governance.(纽约:剑桥大学出版社)。
Pub Date : 2023-12-15 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-023-09521-4
Tana Johnson, Tatiana Cruz
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引用次数: 0
Governments as borrowers and regulators 政府既是借款人又是监管者
Pub Date : 2023-11-28 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-023-09516-1
Timm Betz, Amy Pond

The ability to borrow is important for government survival. Governments routinely resort to policies that privilege their own debt on financial markets, exploiting their dual role as borrowers and regulators. We label such policies as borrowing privileges. These borrowing privileges nudge investors to hold the government’s own debt. They share similarities with prudential regulation, but skew the market in favor of the government’s debt; and they share similarities with financial repression, but are less severe and thus consistent with the growth of financial markets. Introducing the first systematic dataset documenting the use of such policies across countries and over time, we demonstrate that governments implement borrowing privileges when their interactions with the global economy heighten fiscal needs: when borrowing costs indicate tightened access to credit, when trade liberalization undercuts revenue, and where fixed exchange rates increase the value of fiscal space. Despite the mobility of financial assets and constraints from global markets, governments retain latitude in regulating domestic markets to their own fiscal benefit.

借贷能力对政府的生存至关重要。政府通常会采取政策,让自己的债务在金融市场上获得特权,利用自己作为借款人和监管者的双重角色。我们把这种政策称为借款特权。这些借款特权促使投资者持有政府债券。它们与审慎监管有相似之处,但使市场偏向政府债务;它们与金融抑制有相似之处,但不那么严重,因此与金融市场的增长一致。通过引入第一个记录各国和各时期此类政策使用情况的系统数据集,我们证明,当政府与全球经济的互动加剧财政需求时,当借贷成本表明信贷渠道收紧时,当贸易自由化削弱收入时,以及当固定汇率增加财政空间价值时,政府会实施借贷特权。尽管金融资产具有流动性,并受到全球市场的制约,但各国政府仍保留着为自身财政利益而监管国内市场的自由度。
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引用次数: 1
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The review of international organizations
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