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Who adjusts? Exchange rate regimes and finance versus labor under IMF programs 谁来调整?国际货币基金组织计划下的汇率制度和金融与劳动
Pub Date : 2024-04-13 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09540-9
Saliha Metinsoy

Who adjusts under International Monetary Fund (IMF) programs and why? In this paper, I demonstrate that labor groups adjust when there is a fixed exchange rate regime and international financial groups are strong enough to defend the peg. In that case, the Fund substitutes currency devaluation with lowering labor costs via labor market reform. Lower wages are used to increase competitiveness and support exports. In other words, the Fund makes labor ‘cheaper’ through its labor market reform when money cannot be made ‘cheaper’ due to strong international financial interests. To test this theory, I use a mixed-method approach. I complement the case comparison of Latvia and Hungary in 2008–two very similar cases except for their exchange rate regime and the influence of international finance on their economy–with a large-N study using a global sample of IMF borrowers over the years 1989 and 2014. The paper shows that international organizations such as the IMF might amplify the voice of the strong (financial interests) while making the ‘weak’ (labor groups) weaker via their conditionality.

谁会在国际货币基金组织(IMF)的计划下进行调整,为什么?在本文中,我证明了当存在固定汇率制度,且国际金融集团有足够的实力维护盯住汇率时,劳动力群体会做出调整。在这种情况下,基金组织会通过劳动力市场改革来降低劳动力成本,从而取代货币贬值。通过降低工资来提高竞争力和支持出口。换句话说,当货币因强大的国际金融利益而无法变得 "便宜 "时,基金组织通过劳动力市场改革使劳动力变得 "便宜"。为了验证这一理论,我采用了混合方法。除了汇率制度和国际金融对其经济的影响之外,这两个案例非常相似,我在 2008 年对拉脱维亚和匈牙利进行了案例比较,并利用 1989 年至 2014 年国际货币基金组织借款国的全球样本进行了大 N 研究。本文表明,国际货币基金组织等国际组织可能会放大强者(金融利益集团)的声音,而通过附加条件使 "弱者"(劳工群体)变得更弱。
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引用次数: 0
Public support for withdrawal from international organizations: Experimental evidence from the US 公众对退出国际组织的支持:来自美国的实验证据
Pub Date : 2024-04-08 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09539-2
Inken von Borzyskowski, Felicity Vabulas

The United States has helped create and lead many international organizations (IOs). Yet in the last six years, the US announced its withdrawal from several IOs including the World Health Organization, UNESCO, and the Universal Postal Union. Do Americans care about US withdrawals from IOs? When do Americans support withdrawing from IOs and support candidates who propose this? We argue that Americans’ support for multilateralism tends to divide along party lines, and that IO withdrawal can activate those preferences. We also argue that framing an IO withdrawal as benefiting US national interests can make Americans more likely to favor IO exit. Data from four US survey experiments during the 2016–2020 Trump administration support these arguments. Democrats tend to oppose IO withdrawals while Republicans tend to support them. Further, results show that IO withdrawal (and how it is framed) affects candidate choice and policy support. This suggests that announcing IO withdrawal can be used to rally domestic electoral support. Still, the data also show that a large proportion of the US public values remaining in IOs, even when IOs are imperfect or challenging. In these cases, we note that sunk cost fallacies, status quo bias, and loss aversion may pose friction points for supporting withdrawal. Our findings have important implications for research on public opinion about international cooperation, backlash against IOs, and their life cycles.

美国帮助创建并领导了许多国际组织(IOs)。然而,在过去六年里,美国宣布退出多个国际组织,包括世界卫生组织、联合国教科文组织和万国邮政联盟。美国人关心美国退出国际组织的问题吗?美国人什么时候支持退出国际组织并支持提出这一建议的候选人?我们认为,美国人对多边主义的支持倾向于按党派划分,而退出国际组织可以激活这些倾向。我们还认为,把退出国际组织说成是有利于美国国家利益,会使美国人更倾向于支持退出国际组织。2016-2020 年特朗普执政期间的四次美国调查实验数据支持这些论点。民主党人倾向于反对国际组织退出,而共和党人则倾向于支持。此外,调查结果显示,国际组织退出(以及如何界定退出)会影响候选人的选择和政策支持。这表明,宣布撤出国际组织可以用来争取国内选举支持。不过,数据也显示,很大一部分美国公众重视留在国际组织中,即使国际组织不完善或具有挑战性。在这种情况下,我们注意到沉没成本谬误、现状偏见和损失厌恶可能会成为支持撤军的摩擦点。我们的发现对有关国际合作的公众舆论、对国际组织的反弹及其生命周期的研究具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
The power of having powerful friends: Evidence from a new dataset of IMF negotiating missions, 1985-2020 拥有强大朋友的力量:来自1985-2020年国际货币基金组织谈判代表团新数据集的证据
Pub Date : 2024-03-21 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09537-4
Lauren L. Ferry, Alexandra O. Zeitz

When countries are confronted with a crisis and have no alternative but to turn to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), speed is of the essence. Why do some countries negotiate IMF loans more quickly than others? We introduce an original dataset on the timing and intensity of negotiations between the borrowing government and IMF staff for more than 700 IMF loans agreed between 1985 and 2020. Applying concepts from this special issue on the “Power of the Weak” (Snidal et al., 2024), we argue that although borrowing countries are in a weak position when they approach the IMF, they nonetheless sometimes achieve more rapid negotiations. In particular, we argue that borrowers can obtain speedier negotiations on the basis of their ties to major IMF shareholder states, specifically through shared membership in other international organizations and financial exposure. Importantly, we suggest that well-placed borrowers can hasten the conclusion of negotiations without compromising on the conditions attached to IMF programs. We use our original data and an illustrative case study of Côte d’Ivoire to support our claims.

当国家面临危机,别无选择,只能求助于国际货币基金组织(IMF)时,速度就是关键。为什么有些国家比其他国家更快地通过谈判获得国际货币基金组织的贷款?我们引入了一个原始数据集,介绍了借款国政府与国际货币基金组织(IMF)工作人员就 1985 年至 2020 年间达成的 700 多笔 IMF 贷款进行谈判的时间和强度。我们运用本期 "弱者的力量 "特刊(Snidal et al.特别是,我们认为借款国可以通过与国际货币基金组织主要股东国的联系,特别是通过在其他国际组织中的共同成员资格和金融风险,获得更快的谈判。重要的是,我们认为,处于有利地位的借款国可以在不损害 IMF 项目附加条件的情况下加快完成谈判。我们使用我们的原始数据和科特迪瓦的说明性案例研究来支持我们的主张。
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引用次数: 0
The sources of influence in multilateral diplomacy: Replaceability and intergovernmental networks in international organizations 多边外交的影响力来源:国际组织中的可替换性和政府间网络
Pub Date : 2024-03-18 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09536-5

Abstract

While international historians and policy practitioners regularly highlight the utility of multilateral diplomacy as a quintessential “strategy of the weak,” International Relations (IR) scholars have generally downplayed the impact of diplomatic choices. The tools within IR theory to assess the impact of diplomacy remain underdeveloped, contributing to an inability to account for a highly proximate source of international influence. This article argues for a theoretical reengagement with the subject of multilateral diplomacy and, using insights from Social Network Analysis, develops a Diplomatic Impact Framework. Building on the novel concept of replaceability, the article contributes theoretically to the literature on diplomacy, as well as on small and middle powers. This framework captures the fundamentally relational character of diplomacy, isolating analytically this form of structural power from the influence conferred by superior material or institutional resources. Drawing extensively on a multinational collection of diplomatic documents and first-hand accounts, this multidisciplinary article probes the plausibility of the framework through a detailed comparative case study of Canada’s diplomatic influence at the United Nations General Assembly throughout two international security crises: the Korean War and the Suez Crisis.

摘要 国际历史学家和政策实践者经常强调多边外交是典型的 "弱者战略",而国际关系(IR)学者却普遍淡化外交选择的影响。国际关系理论中评估外交影响的工具仍不完善,导致无法解释国际影响力的一个高度近似的来源。本文主张从理论上重新探讨多边外交这一主题,并利用社会网络分析(Social Network Analysis)的见解,建立了外交影响框架(Diplomatic Impact Framework)。文章以可替代性这一新颖概念为基础,从理论上为有关外交以及中小强国的文献做出了贡献。该框架从根本上抓住了外交的关系特征,在分析上将这种形式的结构性权力与优越的物质或制度资源所赋予的影响力区分开来。这篇跨学科的文章广泛借鉴了多国外交文件和第一手资料,通过对加拿大在两次国际安全危机(朝鲜战争和苏伊士危机)中在联合国大会上的外交影响力的详细比较研究,探讨了这一框架的合理性。
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引用次数: 0
Effective climate clubs require ambition, leverage and insulation: Theorizing issue linkage in climate change and trade 有效的气候俱乐部需要雄心、杠杆和绝缘:气候变化与贸易中的问题联系理论化
Pub Date : 2024-03-18 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09535-6
Sam S. Rowan

Many proposals advocate linking climate and trade policy to improve climate cooperation. Since climate mitigation is non-excludable, mitigation cannot be enforced through issue-specific reciprocity, but linking mitigation with trade penalties on non-participants could incorporate trade’s enforcement powers into a climate club. However, this perspective has overlooked the relationship between climate policy preferences and existing trade flows. Using a model of issue linkage in climate and trade motivated by findings from the domestic political economy of international trade, I show that the necessary conditions for climate clubs are exacting. Effective climate–trade clubs require members with high levels of climate policy ambition, export leverage over laggards, and insulation from trade retaliation. However, I show that these three attributes do not necessarily co-occur theoretically or empirically. States that support the club’s goals on one dimension may undermine them on another. The findings provide insights into institutional design, climate politics, and the constraints on issue linkage in international cooperation.

许多建议主张将气候政策与贸易政策联系起来,以改善气候合作。由于气候减缓是非排他性的,因此不能通过针对具体问题的互惠来实施减缓,但将减缓与对非参与者的贸易惩罚联系起来,可以将贸易的执行力纳入气候俱乐部。然而,这种观点忽略了气候政策偏好与现有贸易流动之间的关系。在国际贸易国内政治经济学研究成果的推动下,我使用了一个气候与贸易问题联系模型,证明气候俱乐部的必要条件是苛刻的。有效的气候贸易俱乐部要求成员具有较高的气候政策雄心、对落后者的出口影响力以及免受贸易报复的能力。然而,我的研究表明,这三个属性在理论上或经验上并不一定同时存在。在一个维度上支持俱乐部目标的国家可能会在另一个维度上破坏这些目标。这些发现为国际合作中的制度设计、气候政治和问题联系的制约因素提供了启示。
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引用次数: 0
International constitutional advising: Introducing a new dataset 国际宪法咨询:引入新的数据集
Pub Date : 2024-03-05 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09530-x
Hanna Lerner, David Futscher Pereira, Nina Schlager

The article presents the first systematic comparative study on the growing involvement of international organizations in national constitution making around the world. Over the past three decades, the emerging field of international constitutional advising has undergone an intense process of institutionalization and professionalization, mirroring the increasing role constitution making is playing in both national and international politics. Despite the vast scope of the phenomenon, the involvement of foreign constitutional advisors in domestic constitution-drafting or constitutional reforms has received little scholarly attention. This article takes the first steps towards addressing this lacuna empirically, by introducing a new dataset on 46 international organizations involved in 730 constitutional advising projects in 145 countries between 1989 and 2017. We classified the organizations based on their type, their headquarters’ location, the countries they target, the kind of advising activities they perform and the level of directness of the advising intervention. While generally, we find a significant correlation between more direct constitutional advising activities and larger relative changes in the quality of democracy and larger numbers of constitutional systems in a country, the article suggests avenues for more nuanced research to better understand constitutional advising’s impact.

文章首次对国际组织越来越多地参与世界各地的国家宪法制定进行了系统的比较研究。在过去的三十年里,国际宪法顾问这一新兴领域经历了紧张的制度化和专业化进程,反映出制宪在国家和国际政治中发挥着越来越重要的作用。尽管这一现象范围广泛,但外国宪法顾问对国内宪法起草或宪法改革的参与却很少受到学术界的关注。本文引入了一个新的数据集,涉及 1989 年至 2017 年间参与 145 个国家 730 个宪法咨询项目的 46 个国际组织,从而迈出了实证解决这一空白的第一步。我们根据组织类型、总部所在地、目标国家、咨询活动类型以及咨询干预的直接程度对组织进行了分类。总体而言,我们发现更直接的宪法咨询活动与一个国家民主质量的较大相对变化和宪政制度的较多数量之间存在明显的相关性,但文章提出了进行更细致研究的途径,以更好地了解宪法咨询的影响。
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引用次数: 0
The power of the “weak” and international organizations 弱者 "的力量与国际组织
Pub Date : 2024-02-28 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09531-w
Duncan Snidal, Thomas Hale, Emily Jones, Claas Mertens, Karolina Milewicz

By nearly every measure, power in the international system is concentrated, meaning that most states lack significant power resources. And yet international relations theory tends to focus on the behavior of great powers. This special issue instead explores the strategies that “weak” states use in the context of international organizations both to advance their interests and to resist pressure from stronger states. We define weakness as a relative lack of power across one or more dimensions. While the literature, to the extent it has focused on weak actors, has too often defined weakness solely in material terms, we adopt a broader conception that builds on the influential typology of power by Barnett and Duvall (Barnett and Duvall, 2005a, Barnett and Duvall, International Organization 59, 39–75, 2005b). A multidimensional conceptualization of power allows analysts to show how actors that are weak in one dimension (often material power) may be stronger on other dimensions, giving them greater capacity for action than is often recognized. From this framework we create a typology of “strategies of the weak” that emphasizes the agency of weaker actors to make the most of their positions. The contributions to the special issue, summarized here, illuminate and substantiate many of these strategies across a diverse range of international organizations, understood as both forums and actors. As the articles show, these alternative theoretical mechanisms help explain how and why seemingly weak states sometimes fare better than a simplistic assessment of their material capabilities might suggest. By deepening our understanding of weakness and how it influences state behavior, the volume advances our theoretical understanding of how power is built, wielded, and resisted in and through international organization.

从几乎所有方面来看,国际体系中的权力都是集中的,这意味着大多数国家都缺乏重要的权力资源。然而,国际关系理论往往关注大国的行为。本特刊将探讨 "弱小 "国家在国际组织中为促进自身利益和抵制强国压力而采取的策略。我们将弱国定义为在一个或多个维度上相对缺乏实力。虽然文献关注的是弱小行为体,但往往仅从物质角度来定义弱小,而我们采用了更广泛的概念,该概念建立在巴尼特和杜瓦尔(Barnett and Duvall, 2005a, Barnett and Duvall, International Organization 59, 39-75, 2005b)颇具影响力的权力类型学基础之上。权力的多维概念化使分析人员能够说明,在某一维度(通常是物质权力)上处于弱势的行动者如何在其他维度上变得更强,从而使他们的行动能力比人们通常认识到的更强。根据这一框架,我们创建了一种 "弱者战略 "类型学,强调弱小行为者充分利用其地位的能动性。本特刊的文章(在此进行总结)阐明并证实了这些战略在各种国际组织中的应用,这些国际组织既可以被理解为论坛,也可以被理解为行动者。正如这些文章所显示的,这些替代性理论机制有助于解释为什么看似弱小的国家有时会比对其物质能力的简单评估所显示的更好。通过加深我们对弱国及其如何影响国家行为的理解,本卷推进了我们对权力如何在国际组织中建立、行使和抵制的理论理解。
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引用次数: 0
Re-contracting intergovernmental organizations: Membership change and the creation of linked intergovernmental organizations 重新签订合同的政府间组织:成员变化和建立联系的政府间组织
Pub Date : 2024-02-23 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09533-8
Andrew Lugg

How do intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) evolve? Cooperation through IGOs is difficult to maintain, as membership dynamics change dramatically over time, leading to dissatisfaction with the status quo. This paper argues that IGO members states create new affiliated bodies, which I call linked intergovernmental organizations (LIGOs), to “re-contract” their cooperation. This helps IGOs adapt to changing membership dynamics, including the addition of new members and shifting constellations of power and preference. LIGOs are particularly useful for weak or formerly weak states seeking to alter the institutional status quo. Several features of LIGOs incentivize their creation: (1) they bypass difficult-to-enact reforms at existing IGOs; (2) flexible design features increase the voice of dissatisfied constituencies; and (3) they are politically viable for dissatisfied and status quo members of IGOs. To test my argument, I analyze original data on 1,200 LIGOs created between 1945 and 2012. Multivariate statistical analyses show that LIGOs are created in response to shifting membership environments that create demands for change at existing IGOs. I complement the quantitative analysis with case studies of two significant LIGOs: The International Development Agency (IDA) and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). My theory suggests a dramatic rethinking of how international cooperation evolves and has broad implications for global governance in an increasingly multipolar world.

政府间组织(IGOs)是如何发展的?通过政府间组织开展的合作很难维持,因为随着时间的推移,成员动态会发生巨大变化,从而导致对现状的不满。本文认为,政府间组织成员国创建新的附属机构,我称之为联系政府间组织(LIGOs),以 "重新签订 "合作合同。这有助于政府间组织适应不断变化的成员动态,包括新成员的加入以及权力和偏好的变化。对于寻求改变体制现状的弱国或前弱国来说,政府间组织尤其有用。LIGOs的几个特点激励了它们的产生:(1)它们绕过了现有政府间组织难以实施的改革;(2)灵活的设计特点增加了不满选区的发言权;(3)它们对于政府间组织中不满和维持现状的成员来说在政治上是可行的。为了验证我的论点,我分析了 1945 年至 2012 年间成立的 1200 个地方政府间组织的原始数据。多变量统计分析显示,LIGO的创建是为了应对成员环境的变化,这种变化要求现有的政府间组织进行变革。我通过对国际开发署(IDA)和联合国环境规划署(UNEP)这两个重要LIGO的案例研究,对定量分析进行了补充。我的理论提出了对国际合作如何演变的重大反思,并对日益多极化世界中的全球治理产生了广泛影响。
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引用次数: 0
The only living guerrillero in New York: Cuba and the brokerage power of a resilient revisionist state 纽约唯一活着的游击队员:古巴与顽强的修正主义国家的经纪力量
Pub Date : 2024-02-22 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09532-9
Rafael Mesquita

This article explores how weak countries deflect systemic pressure towards change and even succeed in preserving old institutions to their advantage. By expanding Goddard’s theory of embedded revisionism to smaller powers, the study identifies strategies these states deploy to improve access and brokerage. We use the UN General Assembly Sponsorship Dataset to locate multilateral brokers and, after detecting Cuba’s centrality in this arena, we proceed to a heuristic case study. Havana’s maneuvers to offset its vulnerability during and after the Cold War reveal a mix of structural, institutional, and compulsory power. Specifically, its renewal of the Non-Aligned Movement even after the end of bipolarity, its maintenance of autocracy amidst the pressures for democratization, and later support of radicalized Latin American leaders provide insight regarding unexpected sources of network power available to a resilient rogue state.

这篇文章探讨了弱国如何转移变革的系统压力,甚至成功地维护旧体制,使之成为自己的优势。通过将戈达德的 "内嵌修正主义 "理论扩展到小国,本研究确定了这些国家为改善参与和中介地位而采取的策略。我们利用联合国大会赞助数据集来定位多边掮客,在发现古巴在这一领域的中心地位后,我们开始了启发式案例研究。哈瓦那在冷战期间和冷战后为抵消其脆弱性而采取的行动揭示了结构性、制度性和强制性权力的组合。具体而言,即使在两极分化结束后,哈瓦那仍继续参与不结盟运动,在民主化的压力下维持专制,以及后来对激进的拉美领导人的支持,这些都让我们深入了解了一个顽强的流氓国家所拥有的意想不到的网络力量来源。
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引用次数: 0
To reform or to replace? Succession as a mechanism of institutional change in intergovernmental organisations 改革还是取代?继任作为政府间组织机构变革的一种机制
Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-023-09527-y
Mette Eilstrup-Sangiovanni, Daniel Verdier

Given high costs of negotiating formal international institutions, states are widely expected to adapt, reform, and repurpose existing institutions rather than create new ones. Nevertheless, during the past century some 60 intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) have been directly replaced by a legal successor. Why do states sometimes dissolve an existing IGO only to replace it with a new one that takes over the incumbent organization’s mandate and assets—a practice known as institutional succession? We offer a theory of institutional succession and illustrate with examples. Against the dominant belief that creating new IGOs is a choice of last resort, we argue that reform and succession are equally expedient tools for achieving institutional change but address different negotiating hurdles. By creating a new institution (as opposed to amending an existing one) succession bypasses veto players that may stunt reform. However, succession suffers from potential diseconomies-of-scale (since not every member of an existing IGO may join the successor) which reform does not. Depending on which negotiation hurdle prevails, reform will be preferred to succession or vice versa. Our analysis advances existing understandings of institutional contestation and change within the life cycle of an international organisation.

鉴于正式国际机构的谈判成本高昂,人们普遍认为国家会调整、改革和重新利用现有机构,而不是创建新机构。然而,在过去的一个世纪里,约有 60 个政府间组织(IGOs)被合法的继承者直接取代。为什么国家有时会解散一个现有的政府间组织,然后由一个新的政府间组织取代,接管现有组织的任务和资产--这种做法被称为机构继承?我们提出了机构继承理论,并举例说明。与创建新的政府间组织是不得已的选择这一主流观点相反,我们认为改革和继承同样是实现机构变革的便捷工具,但要解决不同的谈判障碍。通过创建一个新机构(而不是修改现有机构),继任者绕过了可能阻碍改革的否决者。然而,继任可能存在规模不经济问题(因为并非现有政府间组织的每个成员都可能加入继任者),而改革则不会。取决于哪种谈判障碍占了上风,改革会比继承更受青睐,反之亦然。我们的分析推进了对国际组织生命周期内机构竞争与变革的现有理解。
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引用次数: 0
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The review of international organizations
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