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International negotiations over the global commons 关于全球公域的国际谈判
Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09566-z
Stephanie J. Rickard

Countries today navigate a multipolar world defined by tensions between great powers. How do middle powers, small states, and Global South countries fare in this geopolitical landscape? Can they shape new international agreements on emerging, divisive topics, like trade-and-environment issues? To explore this question, I investigate the twenty years of negotiations that led to a new treaty seeking to preserve the global commons: the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies (AFS). Using text-as-data analyses and a rich trove of WTO documents, I investigate the sources of the treaty text. I find that middle powers, small states, and countries from the Global South contributed to the agreement; they did so by forming coalitions with like-minded countries. The findings demonstrate that a wider range of states can effectively participate in international negotiations than traditionally assumed.

当今世界多极化,大国关系紧张。在这种地缘政治格局下,中等强国、小国和全球南部国家的处境如何?它们能否就新出现的、有分歧的议题(如贸易和环境问题)达成新的国际协议?为了探讨这个问题,我对世界贸易组织(WTO)《渔业补贴协议》(AFS)这一旨在保护全球公域的新条约的二十年谈判过程进行了调查。利用文本即数据分析和丰富的世贸组织文件库,我调查了条约文本的来源。我发现,中等强国、小国和来自全球南部的国家为该协定做出了贡献;它们是通过与志同道合的国家结成联盟来实现这一目标的。研究结果表明,与传统假设相比,更多国家可以有效参与国际谈判。
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引用次数: 0
Reconsidering the costs of commitment: Learning and state acceptance of the UN human rights treaties’ individual complaint procedures 重新考虑承诺的代价:联合国人权条约个人申诉程序的学习与国家接受情况
Pub Date : 2024-09-02 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09565-0
Andreas Johannes Ullmann

How do states react to adverse decisions resulting from human rights treaties’ individual complaint procedures? While recent scholarship has shown particular interest in states’ reactions to international court judgments, research on state behavior vis-à-vis an increasing treaty body output remains scarce. I argue that states generally want to avoid the costs implied by adverse decisions, or ‘views’. Rising numbers of rebukes lead them to update their beliefs about the costliness of complaint procedure acceptance in a Bayesian manner. As a result, states become less inclined to accept further petition mechanisms under different human rights treaties. I test these assumptions on an original dataset containing information on individual complaint procedure acceptance and the distribution of 1320 views for a total number of 169 countries ranging from the year 1965 to 2018. Results from Cox proportional hazards regressions suggest that both the number of views against neighboring states and against the examined state itself decrease the likelihood of acceptance of most of the six individual complaint procedures under observation. I also find evidence that this effect is exacerbated if states are more likely to actually bear the costs of implementation. Findings indicate that the omission of further commitment can be a negative spillover of the treaty bodies’ quasi-judicial output.

国家如何应对人权条约个人申诉程序做出的不利裁决?虽然近期的学术研究对国家对国际法院判决的反应表现出了特别的兴趣,但有关国家对条约机构日益增加的产出的行为的研究仍然很少。我认为,国家一般都希望避免不利裁决或 "意见 "所带来的成本。遭到斥责的次数不断增加,导致它们以贝叶斯方式更新对接受申诉程序的成本的看法。因此,各国越来越不愿意接受不同人权条约下的进一步申诉机制。我在一个原始数据集上检验了这些假设,该数据集包含从 1965 年到 2018 年总共 169 个国家的个人申诉程序接受度信息和 1320 种观点的分布情况。考克斯正比危险回归的结果表明,针对邻国和被审查国本身的意见数量都会降低所观察的六种个人申诉程序中大多数程序被接受的可能性。我还发现,如果国家更有可能实际承担实施成本,这种影响就会加剧。研究结果表明,条约机构准司法产出的负面溢出效应可能是进一步承诺的缺失。
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引用次数: 0
Undermining liberal international organizations from within: Evidence from the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe 从内部破坏自由国际组织:来自欧洲委员会议会的证据
Pub Date : 2024-08-07 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09559-y
Jana Lipps, Marc S. Jacob

International organizations promoting democratic governance and human rights are increasingly challenged by some of their own member states. To better understand this dynamic, we propose a distinction between the illiberal ideology of political parties and their regime environment, aiming to examine the international behavior of actors extending beyond autocratic governments. We argue that the domestic regime environment plays a pivotal role in influencing the extent to which illiberal parties engage in contestation to undermine liberal norms on the international stage. We expect contestation behavior to be primarily driven by illiberal parties seeking to diminish the influence of liberal international politics on domestic power structures. Moreover, we contend that government participation moderates illiberal parties’ contestation behavior. To test our expectations empirically, we study roll call votes in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE), one of the most powerful international parliaments promoting liberal values. Drawing on an original dataset that records approximately 500,000 individual votes cast in PACE decisions, we find evidence for substantive contestation by illiberal parties, especially those representing illiberal regimes. Only illiberal governments in liberal systems moderate themselves at the amendment stage. Our study has implications for the potential threat that emerging illiberal actors pose to international liberal institutions.

促进民主治理和人权的国际组织日益受到其部分成员国的挑战。为了更好地理解这一动态,我们提出了政党的非自由主义意识形态与其政权环境之间的区别,旨在研究超越专制政府的行为体的国际行为。我们认为,国内政权环境对非自由政党在国际舞台上参与竞争以破坏自由准则的程度起着关键作用。我们预计,非自由主义政党的竞争行为主要是为了削弱自由主义国际政治对国内权力结构的影响。此外,我们认为政府的参与会缓和非自由政党的竞争行为。为了从实证角度检验我们的预期,我们研究了欧洲委员会议会(PACE)的唱名表决情况,该议会是倡导自由主义价值观的最强大的国际议会之一。我们利用原始数据集记录了约 500,000 张在欧洲委员会议会决策中的个人投票,发现了非自由主义政党,尤其是代表非自由主义政权的非自由主义政党进行实质性竞争的证据。只有自由主义制度下的非自由主义政府才会在修正案阶段进行自我调节。我们的研究对新出现的非自由主义行为体对国际自由主义机构构成的潜在威胁具有启示意义。
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引用次数: 0
Illiberal regimes and international organizations 非自由主义政权和国际组织
Pub Date : 2024-08-02 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09556-1
Christina Cottiero, Emilie M. Hafner-Burton, Stephan Haggard, Lauren Prather, Christina J. Schneider

Illiberal regimes have become central players in international organizations. In this introduction to the special issue, we provide a unified framework for understanding their effects. We start by outlining the theoretical foundations of this work, focusing first on why regime type matters for international cooperation. We then show how differing memberships and decision-making processes within international organizations affect the influence illiberal regimes can wield, the activities they undertake, and the impact that they have on domestic political outcomes. Collectively and individually, the contributions to this special issue broaden the theoretical literature on illiberal regimes in international organizations and produce novel data about how they are implicated in the politics and operations of multilateral and regional IOs. This research has important implications for how democracies can and should cope with the challenges to global governance that arise from illiberal regimes.

非自由主义制度已成为国际组织中的核心角色。在本特刊的导言中,我们提供了一个统一的框架来理解它们的影响。我们首先概述了这项工作的理论基础,重点是为什么制度类型对国际合作很重要。然后,我们展示了国际组织中不同的成员资格和决策过程如何影响非自由政权的影响力、它们开展的活动以及它们对国内政治结果的影响。本特刊的文章无论从整体上还是从个体上都拓宽了关于国际组织中的非自由主义制度的理论文献,并提供了新的数据,说明非自由主义制度是如何卷入多边和地区性国际组织的政治和运作中的。这项研究对民主国家如何应对以及应该如何应对非自由制度给全球治理带来的挑战具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Is context pretext? Institutionalized commitments and the situational politics of foreign economic policy 背景是借口吗?对外经济政策的制度化承诺和情境政治
Pub Date : 2024-07-30 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09560-5
Ryan Powers

Does the public care if their leaders fail to uphold or comply with their country’s standing international commitments? If so, under what conditions? I study this question in the context of attitudes toward institutionalized trade cooperation. Using survey experiments, I find that the public has a pronounced taste for compliance that is largely independent of the underlying political and economic context. The public is less willing to endorse the imposition of trade restrictions when doing so would violate standing trade agreements. This is the case even in contexts where the public would otherwise support protectionist policy: when the unemployment rate is high, when there are a large number of jobs at stake, and when the trade partner has recently failed to honor their own trade commitments. I find little in the way of copartisanship dynamics, but document strong dispositional effects in which those not predisposed to view international cooperation in a positive light impose systematically smaller punishments on leaders who violate treaty commitments.

公众是否关心他们的领导人未能维护或遵守本国的长期国际承诺?如果会,在什么条件下会在乎?我结合对制度化贸易合作的态度来研究这个问题。通过调查实验,我发现公众对遵守承诺有一种明显的偏好,这种偏好在很大程度上与政治和经济背景无关。如果实施贸易限制会违反长期贸易协定,那么公众就不太愿意支持这样做。即使是在公众本来会支持保护主义政策的情况下:失业率高企、大量工作岗位岌岌可危、贸易伙伴最近未能履行自己的贸易承诺时,情况也是如此。我几乎没有发现共党动态,但记录了强烈的倾向性效应,即那些不倾向于从积极角度看待国际合作的人对违反条约承诺的领导人施加了系统性的较小惩罚。
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引用次数: 0
Zombies ahead: Explaining the rise of low-quality election monitoring 前方有僵尸解释低质量选举监督的兴起
Pub Date : 2024-07-26 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09554-3
Sarah Sunn Bush, Christina Cottiero, Lauren Prather

The international election monitoring regime has become considerably more complex in the twenty-first century. Although the number of organizations engaged in high-quality election monitoring has plateaued, the number of low-quality monitors—commonly known as zombie monitors—has continued to grow. Low-quality election monitors threaten democracy because they validate flawed elections and undermine the legitimacy of the international election monitoring regime. This article argues that international politics have played a crucial role in the diffusion of low-quality election monitors. It hypothesizes that ties with autocratic powers that promote low-quality observers and membership in authoritarian regional organizations significantly increase the likelihood that a country will host low-quality monitors at its elections. To test the hypotheses, the article draws on original data on international election observation between 2000 and 2020 that identifies the most comprehensive set of groups of election monitors to-date. A statistical analysis of the dataset supports the argument.

国际选举监督制度在二十一世纪变得更加复杂。虽然参与高质量选举监督的组织数量已趋于稳定,但低质量监督者--俗称 "僵尸监督者"--的数量却在持续增长。低质量的选举监督者威胁着民主,因为他们验证了有缺陷的选举,破坏了国际选举监督制度的合法性。本文认为,国际政治在低质量选举监督员的扩散中起到了至关重要的作用。文章假设,如果一个国家与助长低质量观察员的专制大国有联系,并且是专制区域组织的成员,那么该国在选举中接纳低质量监督员的可能性就会大大增加。为了验证上述假设,文章利用了 2000 年至 2020 年国际选举观察的原始数据,这些数据确定了迄今为止最全面的选举监督员群体。对数据集的统计分析支持了这一论点。
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引用次数: 0
Are authoritative international organizations challenged more? A recurrent event analysis of member state criticisms and withdrawals 权威性国际组织是否受到更多挑战?对成员国批评和退出的经常性事件分析
Pub Date : 2024-07-19 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09557-0
Hylke Dijkstra, Farsan Ghassim

Member states’ challenges to international organizations (IOs) are at the heart of the supposed crisis of our multilateral order – from the “African bias” debate surrounding the International Criminal Court, to the United Kingdom’s “Brexit” from the European Union, to Trump’s attacks on the World Health Organization during the COVID-19 pandemic. IOs are regularly challenged by their member states in different ways, ranging from verbal criticisms to withdrawals. But why are some IOs challenged more than others? An important – but so far largely theoretical – academic debate relates to the authority of IOs as an explanatory factor for why some face more challenges: Authoritative IOs may invite more challenges (for example, due to domestic contestation) or fewer challenges (due, in part, to the investment of member states and their greater capacity to resolve conflicts internally). Our article assesses these explanations using the Andersen-Gill approach for analyzing recurrent events of member states’ public criticisms and withdrawals. We do not find strong and consistent evidence that more authoritative IOs are more regularly challenged by their own member states. There is some evidence that authoritative IOs experience fewer withdrawals, but we find stronger evidence for alternative factors such as preference heterogeneity between members, the existence of alternative IOs, and the democratic composition of an IO’s membership. Our study is significant for scholarly debates and real-world politics, as it implies that granting IOs more authority does not make them more prone to member state challenges.

从围绕国际刑事法院的 "非洲偏见 "辩论,到英国 "脱欧",再到特朗普在 COVID-19 大流行期间对世界卫生组织的攻击,会员国对国际组织(IOs)的挑战是我们多边秩序所谓危机的核心。国际组织经常受到其成员国不同方式的挑战,从口头批评到退出。但为什么有些国际组织比其他国际组织受到更多的挑战呢?一个重要的--但迄今为止主要是理论性的--学术争论涉及到国际组织的权威性,这是解释为什么一些国际组织面临更多挑战的一个因素:具有权威性的国际组织可能会招致更多的挑战(例如,由于国内的争论)或更少的挑战(部分原因是由于成员国的投资及其更强的内部解决冲突的能力)。我们的文章采用安徒生-吉尔方法对这些解释进行了评估,分析了成员国公开批评和退出的经常性事件。我们没有发现有力而一致的证据表明,更具权威性的国际组织更经常受到其成员国的质疑。有一些证据表明,权威性国际组织经历的退出事件较少,但我们发现有更有力的证据表明存在其他因素,如成员国之间的偏好异质性、替代性国际组织的存在以及国际组织成员的民主构成。我们的研究对学术辩论和现实政治都具有重要意义,因为它意味着赋予国际组织更多权威并不会使它们更容易受到成员国的挑战。
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引用次数: 0
The life cycle of international cooperation: Introduction to the special issue 国际合作的生命周期:特刊导言
Pub Date : 2024-07-11 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09558-z
Julia Gray

International organizations’ lives often extend far beyond the moment of their initial contracting. How IOs do adapt to shifting circumstances in their member states global geopolitical changes, and even internal dynamics within the IO itself? This special issue on the life cycle of international cooperation explores the ebbs and flows of the IOs that underpin the international system. Firm theory, organizational sociology, and agency theory all have incorporated life cycles perspectives into the study of organizations, but IR has yet to fully harness these frameworks. A life cycles approach centers on, first, incorporating the IO itself as the core unit of analysis and, second, the dynamic processes within IOs — including life stages such as false starts, consolidation, inertia, growth, revitalization, death, and succession. Incorporating these dynamic processes into our understanding of IOs reminds us that historically, IOs have always experienced periods of both flourishing and faltering. Grasping the mechanisms that drive these changes is indispensable for a thorough understanding of the international system’s vitality and resilience. Articles in this issue explore the durability of IOs in the face of crises; the measures that IOs deploy to legitimize their existence; the role of individual leaders’ rhetoric in IO vitality; the tradeoffs that member states face between pulling the plug on an IO versus creating a new institution; the effect of member-state IO withdrawal on the international system overall; and the mass public’s perceptions of such withdrawals.

国际组织的寿命往往远远超过其最初签约的那一刻。国际组织如何适应其成员国不断变化的情况、全球地缘政治变化,甚至国际组织本身的内部动态?本特刊以国际合作的生命周期为主题,探讨了支撑国际体系的国际组织的起伏变化。企业理论、组织社会学和代理理论都将生命周期视角纳入了组织研究,但国际关系学尚未充分利用这些框架。生命周期方法的核心在于:第一,将国际组织本身作为分析的核心单位;第二,国际组织内部的动态过程--包括虚假启动、巩固、惰性、增长、振兴、死亡和继承等生命阶段。将这些动态过程纳入我们对国际组织的理解,提醒我们从历史上看,国际组织总是经历过繁荣和衰败的时期。要透彻理解国际体系的活力和复原力,就必须掌握驱动这些变化的机制。本期文章探讨了国际组织在面对危机时的持久性;国际组织为使其存在合法化而采取的措施;个别领导人的言论在国际组织活力中的作用;成员国在撤出国际组织与建立新机构之间的权衡;成员国撤出国际组织对整个国际体系的影响;以及公众对这种撤出的看法。
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引用次数: 0
The defocalizing effect of international courts: Evidence from maritime delimitation practices 国际法院的非地方化效应:海洋划界实践的证据
Pub Date : 2024-06-29 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09545-4
Ezgi Yildiz, Umut Yüksel

Can international courts influence state policies and facilitate interstate cooperation? Existing literature argues that they can. Courts can make cooperative outcomes easier for states by formulating or endorsing rules around which state expectations and practice can converge. While it is widely assumed that court rulings may become focal points and play a role in harmonizing state practices, we know little about the conditions under which they have such an effect. We suggest that court rulings can often have an opposite, defocalizing effect, which may durably harm the prospects of convergence around what the law requires. We introduce defocalization as a process and discuss its possible types and implications. We argue that defocalization may be driven by incongruence of court rulings with existing treaty law and state practice and inconsistency of rulings over time. We illustrate our argument by examining the effect of key judicial rulings on the convergence of state views about the appropriate maritime delimitation rules by relying on an original dataset. Our findings show how defocalization unfolds and suggest that complexity can accumulate over time through legal rulings that are incongruent with existing state practice or treaty law, and can be maintained through inconsistent court decisions.

国际法院能否影响国家政策并促进国家间合作?现有文献认为可以。法院可以通过制定或认可一些规则,使各国的期望和实践趋于一致,从而使各国更容易取得合作成果。虽然人们普遍认为法院裁决可能成为协调各州实践的焦点并发挥作用,但我们对法院裁决在何种条件下产生这种效果知之甚少。我们认为,法院裁决往往会产生相反的 "去焦点化 "效应,这可能会持久地损害围绕法律要求达成一致的前景。我们将 "去焦点化 "作为一个过程来介绍,并讨论其可能的类型和影响。我们认为,法院裁决与现行条约法和国家实践不一致,以及裁决随着时间的推移而不一致,都可能导致偏移。为了说明我们的论点,我们利用原始数据集研究了关键司法裁决对各国关于适当海洋划界规则的意见趋同所产生的影响。我们的研究结果表明了非本地化是如何展开的,并表明复杂性可以通过与现有国家实践或条约法不一致的法律裁决随着时间的推移而累积,并可以通过不一致的法院裁决而得以维持。
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引用次数: 0
Good governance in autocratic international organizations 专制国际组织的善治
Pub Date : 2024-06-29 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09550-7
Emilie Hafner-Burton, Jon C. W. Pevehouse, Christina J. Schneider

A large and growing number of international organizations (IOs) are made up and governed by illiberal or outright authoritarian regimes. Many of these authoritarian IOs (AIOs) formally adopt good governance mandates, linking goals like democracy promotion, anti-corruption policies and human rights to their broader mission. Why do some AIOs adopt good governance mandates that appear to conflict with the norms and standards these regimes apply at home? We argue that AIOs adopt good governance mandates when they face substantial pressure from inside or outside the IO to adopt them. Central to our argument is that not all aspects of good governance are inherently or equally threatening to autocratic regimes. They pursue strategies that minimize the threat by externalizing policy outside the membership and strategically defining the goals to avoid or enact. This allows autocratic governments to uptake good governance talk but lessen any deep commitment to the norms and sometimes even to use them strategically to project their own power outside of the organization. Using data on 48 regional IOs with primarily autocratic membership between 1945 and 2015, we demonstrate that AIOs facing pressure from external good governance promoters will adopt good governance mandates but strategically shape those mandates in their favor if they can form bargaining coalitions with like-minded governments. The findings have sobering implications for the future of good governance promotion through IOs.

越来越多的国际组织(IOs)是由不自由或完全专制的政权组成和管理的。其中许多专制国际组织(AIOs)正式通过了善治任务,将促进民主、反腐败政策和人权等目标与其更广泛的使命联系起来。为什么一些 AIOs 采取的善治任务似乎与这些政权在国内适用的规范和标准相冲突?我们认为,当国际组织面临来自内部或外部的巨大压力时,它们会采取善治任务。我们论证的核心是,并非善治的所有方面对专制政权都具有内在或同等的威胁。专制政权通过将政策外部化,将威胁降至最低,并从战略上确定要避免或颁布的目标。这就使专制政府能够接受善治的言论,但减少对准则的深刻承诺,有时甚至战略性地利用这些准则在组织外推行自己的权力。利用 1945 年至 2015 年间 48 个主要由专制成员组成的地区性国际组织的数据,我们证明,面临外部善治推动者压力的地区性国际组织会采纳善治任务,但如果它们能与志同道合的政府形成讨价还价的联盟,则会战略性地塑造这些任务,使其对自己有利。这些发现对未来通过国际组织促进善治具有警示意义。
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引用次数: 0
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The review of international organizations
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