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Economic crises and the survival of international organizations 经济危机与国际组织的生存
Pub Date : 2024-06-14 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09549-0
Yoram Z. Haftel, Bar Nadel

How do hard economic times affect countries’ foreign policy and, specifically, their international commitments? Although a large body of literature assumes that economic crises lead to the prioritization of domestic politics at the expense of international cooperation, these claims are rarely subjected to systematic empirical tests. This study examines one important aspect of these relationships: the consequences of economic crises for the survival of international organizations (IOs), a question that attracted only scant scholarly attention to date. Theoretically, we argue that even though economic crises can weaken member states’ commitment to IOs, they also underscore their ability to tackle the root causes of such crises and mitigate their most pernicious effects. As such, economic crises are actually conducive to IO longevity. We expect this effect to be especially pronounced for currency crises, IOs with an economic mandate, and regional IOs, given their particular relevance for international cooperation during hard economic times. These conjectures are tested with a comprehensive sample of IOs and data on currency, banking and sovereign debt crises from 1970 to 2014. Using event history models and controlling for several alternative explanations of IO survival, we find ample empirical support for the theoretical expectations.

经济困难时期如何影响各国的外交政策,特别是其国际承诺?虽然大量文献都认为经济危机会导致国内政治优先而牺牲国际合作,但这些说法很少经过系统的实证检验。本研究探讨了这些关系的一个重要方面:经济危机对国际组织(IOs)生存的影响。从理论上讲,我们认为,尽管经济危机会削弱成员国对国际组织的承诺,但同时也凸显了成员国解决危机根源并减轻其最恶劣影响的能力。因此,经济危机实际上有利于国际组织的长期存在。我们预计这种效应对于货币危机、负有经济使命的国际组织和区域性国际组织尤为明显,因为它们在经济困难时期对国际合作具有特殊意义。我们利用国际组织的综合样本以及 1970 年至 2014 年的货币、银行和主权债务危机数据对这些猜想进行了检验。利用事件史模型并控制国际组织生存的几种替代解释,我们发现理论预期得到了充分的经验支持。
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引用次数: 0
Weapons of the weak state: How post-conflict states shape international statebuilding 弱国的武器:冲突后国家如何塑造国际国家建设
Pub Date : 2024-06-11 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09546-3
Susanna P. Campbell, Aila M. Matanock

International Organizations (IOs), such as the United Nations (U.N.), engage in statebuilding in a range of post-conflict states. Statebuilding scholarship largely assumes that IOs, backed by their powerful member states, have at least temporary authority over the seemingly “weak” states in which they intervene. We argue, in contrast, that many post-conflict states shape IO statebuilding efforts through many statebuilding contracts, which we call incomplete arrangements, that give the post-conflict state the residual rights of control over the unnegotiated components of these statebuilding contracts with IOs. These incomplete arrangements, as opposed to complete takeovers, which are the other type of statebuilding contracts, provide procedural “weapons of the weak state” that enable the post-conflict state to influence what the IO mandate contains, where it intervenes, whom it hires, and when it exits. Using in-depth case studies of Burundi, Guatemala, and Timor-Leste, as well as analysis of 36 U.N. interventions in post-conflict states from 2000–2020, this article demonstrates the potential of incomplete arrangement statebuilding contracts to give post-conflict states institutional power over IO statebuilders, with important implications for scholarship on statebuilding and global governance.

联合国(U.N. )等国际组织参与了一系列冲突后国家的国家建设。国家建设学术研究大多假定,国际组织在其强大的成员国支持下,对其干预的看似 "弱小 "的国家至少拥有暂时的权威。与此相反,我们认为,许多冲突后国家通过许多建国契约(我们称之为不完全安排)来塑造国际组织的建国努力,这些契约赋予冲突后国家对这些与国际组织的建国契约中未经谈判的部分的剩余控制权。与完全接管(另一种类型的国家建设合同)不同,这些不完全安排提供了程序性的 "弱国武器",使冲突后国家能够影响国际组织的任务内容、干预地点、雇用人员以及退出时间。本文通过对布隆迪、危地马拉和东帝汶的深入案例研究,以及对 2000-2020 年间联合国在冲突后国家的 36 次干预行动的分析,展示了不完全安排建国合同赋予冲突后国家对国际组织建国者的制度权力的潜力,对建国和全球治理的学术研究具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Treaty withdrawal and the development of international law 退出条约与国际法的发展
Pub Date : 2024-06-06 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09553-4
Averell Schmidt

I argue that treaty withdrawal has two opposing effects on the development of international law. First, it directly impacts the treaty where it occurs by pushing the remaining members to adopt reforms to maintain cooperation. Second, it indirectly affects the development of other treaties by damaging diplomatic relations between the withdrawing state and other members, hindering negotiations in other areas of cooperation. Consequentially, treaty withdrawal has a mixed impact on the development of international law: it expedites the reform of one treaty while inhibiting reform elsewhere. I test this argument by applying a difference-in-differences design to an original panel of treaties built from the records of the United Nations. My findings reveal that while withdrawal increases the number of reforms in treaties where it occurs, it decreases reforms in similar treaties with comparable memberships. The indirect effect more than cancels out the direct effect. Overall, treaty withdrawal impedes the creation of new international laws.

我认为,条约退出对国际法的发展有两种相反的影响。首先,退约直接影响所在条约,促使其余成员进行改革以维持合作。其次,退约会破坏退约国与其他成员之间的外交关系,阻碍其他合作领域的谈判,从而间接影响其他条约的发展。因此,退出条约对国际法发展的影响好坏参半:它加快了一个条约的改革,同时抑制了其他条约的改革。我对根据联合国记录建立的原始条约小组进行了差异设计,从而验证了这一论点。我的研究结果表明,虽然退出会增加条约改革的数量,但却会减少成员数量相当的类似条约的改革。间接影响抵消了直接影响。总体而言,退出条约阻碍了新国际法的制定。
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引用次数: 0
Less in the West: The tangibility of international organizations and their media visibility around the world 少在西方:国际组织的有形性及其在世界各地的媒体能见度
Pub Date : 2024-05-30 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09551-6
Michal Parizek

This paper presents the first theoretical and large-scale empirical account of the visibility of major global international organizations (IOs) in news media around the world. It focuses on the everyday, continuous coverage of IOs, through which knowledge and support of IOs can be built over time. Synthesizing insights from Media Studies and International Relations (IR), I develop a theoretical framework centered on the tangibility of IOs’ work—its concreteness and proximity to audiences—as the key driver of variation in IOs’ media visibility across states. Empirically, I study the media visibility of the 40 IOs and IO bodies that form the UN System broadly defined, including virtually all the major formal global IOs. I find that the IOs are systematically more visible in states where they conduct tangible development-focused operational activity. The differences are sizeable: IO media visibility in states with the lowest levels of human development is approximately 75% higher than in highest-development level states, typically Western. The empirical analysis is based on a novel dataset of more than 3.4 million news articles in 63 languages and 135 states, accounting for 96% of the world population, spanning 2018–2021. Natural language processing-based analysis is complemented with human coding of the content of a sample of articles, further highlighting the importance of the development-focused operational activity of IOs for their media visibility. The findings have important implications for our understanding of the public image of IOs in Western states and beyond.

本文首次对全球主要国际组织(IOs)在世界各地新闻媒体中的能见度进行了理论和大规模的实证研究。它重点关注对国际组织的日常、持续报道,通过这种报道,国际组织的知识和支持可以随着时间的推移而建立起来。综合媒体研究和国际关系(IR)的见解,我建立了一个理论框架,以国际组织工作的有形性--其具体性和与受众的接近性--为中心,将其作为国际组织在不同国家的媒体能见度差异的主要驱动力。根据经验,我研究了构成广义联合国系统的 40 个国际组织和国际组织机构的媒体能见度,其中包括几乎所有主要的正式全球国际组织。我发现,在国际组织开展以发展为重点的实际业务活动的国家,国际组织的能见度更高。这种差异是巨大的:在人类发展水平最低的国家,国际组织的媒体可见度比发展水平最高的国家(通常是西方国家)高出约 75%。实证分析基于一个新颖的数据集,该数据集包含 2018-2021 年间 63 种语言、135 个国家(占世界人口的 96%)的 340 多万篇新闻报道。以自然语言处理为基础的分析辅以对文章样本内容的人工编码,进一步突出了国际组织以发展为重点的业务活动对其媒体可见度的重要性。研究结果对我们了解国际组织在西方国家及其他国家的公众形象具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
How foreign multinationals benefit from acquiring domestic firms with political experience 外国跨国公司如何从收购具有政治经验的国内企业中获益
Pub Date : 2024-05-21 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09547-2
Jieun Lee

Do foreign multinational corporations (MNCs) utilize the political experience of domestic firms that they have acquired? If so, why? Little is known about the ways in which foreign MNCs gain political influence outside their home countries. And yet, foreign MNCs that acquire or merge with politically active domestic firms may inherit host country- and firm-specific political influence mechanisms on day-one of entry. To test this idea, I assemble novel panel datasets of all American firms that completed mergers and acquisitions (M &A) while connected to an active Political Action Committee (PAC) or reported to lobby the U.S. government between 1997 and 2018. With these data, I show that the survival rates of connected PACs and lobbying relationships post-M &A are significantly higher for firms with a new foreign owner, compared with those with a new American owner. In addition, newly foreign-owned firms tend to maintain – or even increase – the intensity of political activities post-M &A. Finally, following cross-border M &A, I observe a greater lobbying emphasis on issue areas of interest to foreign MNCs such as trade, intellectual property rights, and telecommunications. One implication of this study is that MNCs may gain political leverage in other countries by acquiring politically active domestic firms.

外国跨国公司是否利用其收购的国内公司的政治经验?如果有,为什么?人们对外国跨国公司如何在母国之外获得政治影响力知之甚少。然而,收购或兼并政治上活跃的国内企业的外国跨国公司可能在进入东道国的第一天就继承了东道国和企业特有的政治影响机制。为了验证这一观点,我收集了 1997 年至 2018 年间所有完成并购(M &A )、同时与活跃的政治行动委员会(PAC)有联系或报告游说美国政府的美国公司的新型面板数据集。通过这些数据,我发现,与那些拥有新的美国所有者的公司相比,拥有新的外国所有者的公司在并购后的关联政治行动委员会和游说关系的存活率明显更高。此外,新外资企业倾向于在并购后保持甚至增加政治活动的强度。最后,在跨国并购之后,我观察到外国跨国公司更加重视贸易、知识产权和电信等它们感兴趣的问题领域的游说活动。本研究的意义之一在于,跨国公司可以通过收购政治上活跃的国内企业,在其他国家获得政治影响力。
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引用次数: 0
Tracking earmarked funding to international organizations: Introducing the earmarked funding dataset 跟踪向国际组织提供的专项资金:专用资金数据集介绍
Pub Date : 2024-05-10 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09548-1
Bernhard Reinsberg, Mirko Heinzel, Christian Siauwijaya

Over the past two decades, donor funding of international organizations (IOs) such as the United Nations, has shifted from core resources toward earmarked contributions. While core resources provide IOs with discretion how to achieve their mandates, earmarked contributions require IOs to focus their assistance on specific themes, sectors, countries, or projects, as determined by the donors. Our understanding of the drivers and effects of earmarked funding has been limited by the lack of systematic data. To address this gap, we introduce the Earmarked Funding Dataset. The dataset contains 342,812 earmarked aid activities from nearly 50 donors with over 340 IOs with a mandate in international development from 1990 to 2020. We first explore the data descriptively to cast light on the evolution of the multilateral development system. We then use the data to examine whether and how donors financially reward well-performing IOs. To that end, we combine our data with newly available performance data synthesized from Multilateral Organization Performance Assessment Network (MOPAN) evaluations of 32 IOs in 2009–2020. Using difference-in-difference estimations, we find a significantly positive relationship between outcome performance and earmarked contributions. In contrast, performance does not seem to affect core resources. These patterns suggest that donors reward well-performing multilaterals with more funding, albeit based on development outcomes which are not easily contractible. From a policy perspective, these findings suggest that performance-based approaches to aid allocation—as they are currently practiced—upload the financial risks of organizational reform processes to international organizations.

过去二十年来,捐助方对联合国等国际组织的资助已从核心资源转向专用捐款。核心资源为国际组织提供了实现其任务的自由裁量权,而指定用途捐款则要求国际组织将援助重点放在捐助方确定的特定主题、部门、国家或项目上。由于缺乏系统的数据,我们对专项资金的驱动因素和影响的了解一直很有限。为了弥补这一不足,我们引入了专项资金数据集。该数据集包含从 1990 年到 2020 年期间近 50 个捐助方与 340 多个有国际发展任务的国际组织开展的 342812 项指定用途援助活动。我们首先对数据进行描述性探讨,以揭示多边发展体系的演变。然后,我们利用这些数据研究捐助方是否以及如何对表现出色的国际组织进行财政奖励。为此,我们将我们的数据与多边组织绩效评估网络(MOPAN)在 2009-2020 年对 32 个国际组织进行评估后综合得出的最新绩效数据相结合。通过差分估算,我们发现成果绩效与专用捐款之间存在显著的正相关关系。相比之下,绩效似乎并不影响核心资源。这些模式表明,捐助方对表现良好的多边机构给予了更多的资金奖励,尽管这些奖励是基于不易签约的发展成果。从政策角度看,这些研究结果表明,基于绩效的援助分配方法--目前的做法--将组织改革进程的财务风险转嫁给了国际组织。
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引用次数: 0
The unintended consequences of IMF programs: Women left behind in the labor market 国际货币基金组织计划的意外后果:劳动力市场上的留守妇女
Pub Date : 2024-05-04 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09542-7
Andreas Kern, B. Reinsberg, Claire Lee
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引用次数: 0
The possibilities and limits of international status: Evidence from foreign aid and public opinion 国际地位的可能性和局限性:来自外国援助和公众舆论的证据
Pub Date : 2024-04-24 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09543-6
Lauren Ferry, Cleo O’Brien-Udry

States use symbolic gestures to increase their international status, or relative po- sition, within the international community. But how do the status-seeking actions of one state affect the status of others? The common assumption is that improvements in one state’s status lead to the relative deterioration of other states’ status by compari- son. In this paper, we focus on status’ social qualities to delineate multiple theoretical pathways through which one state’s status can change – or not – relative to another. Status is not conferred in a vacuum and the consequences of status-altering activities may spill over to third parties. We field an original survey and reanalyze several exist- ing studies to understand how relative status operates in the case of foreign aid; these surveys reveal novel empirical patterns about the circumstances under which a state’s status will update relative to other states. We extend the analysis to examine who updates perceptions, what actions change status, and for whom status changes. Our findings suggest that status-enhancing actions may be successful at augmenting status amongst peers, but ultimately unsuccessful at changing global hierarchies.

各国利用象征性姿态来提高其在国际社会中的国际地位或相对地位。但是,一国寻求地位的行动如何影响其他国家的地位?通常的假设是,一国地位的提高会导致其他国家地位的相对下降。在本文中,我们将重点放在地位的社会属性上,从理论上勾勒出一个国家的地位相对于另一个国家发生变化或不发生变化的多种途径。地位不是在真空中授予的,改变地位的活动的后果可能会波及第三方。我们进行了一项原创调查,并重新分析了几项现有研究,以了解在对外援助的情况下,相对地位是如何运作的;这些调查揭示了新的经验模式,即一国相对于其他国家的地位在什么情况下会更新。我们对分析进行了扩展,以研究谁会更新观念、哪些行为会改变地位以及对谁而言地位会发生变化。我们的研究结果表明,提高地位的行动可能会成功地提高同行之间的地位,但最终却无法改变全球的等级制度。
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引用次数: 0
Your silence speaks volumes: Weak states and strategic absence in the UN General Assembly 你们的沉默说明了一切:弱国和战略缺席联合国大会
Pub Date : 2024-04-24 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09538-3
Julia C. Morse, Bridget Coggins

Country participation in one-state, one-vote forums like the United Nations General Assembly often reflects underlying power asymmetries and endogenous political processes. Voting alignment is undoubtedly an important preference indicator. However, this paper contends that it is incomplete; silence is politically significant as well. Weak states use absence as a form of institutional power that shields them from geopolitical pressure and competing-principals problems. While abstention is a public signal of neutrality that undercuts voting unanimity, the ambiguous intent of absence makes it a distinct form of political expression. We examine the politics of absences at the General Assembly, highlighting how states may be strategically absent from select votes for political reasons. Building on the Bailey et al. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 61(2), 430–456, 2017 roll-call voting data, we distinguish strategic absences from other types of absence and provide evidence that such behavior is linked to US interests and competing-principals problems. Taking these non-random reasons for missingness into account provides a fuller picture of how weak states engage with international institutions and highlights how silence can be a consequence of larger political processes.

国家参与联合国大会等 "一国一票 "的论坛往往反映了潜在的权力不对称和内生的政治进程。投票的一致性无疑是一个重要的偏好指标。然而,本文认为这并不全面;沉默也具有重要的政治意义。弱国利用缺席作为一种制度权力,使其免受地缘政治压力和校长竞争问题的影响。弃权是一种公开的中立信号,它削弱了投票的一致性,而缺席的模糊意图则使其成为一种独特的政治表达形式。我们研究了大会缺席的政治性,强调了各州如何出于政治原因战略性地缺席特定投票。基于 Bailey 等人的 Journal of Conflict Resolution, 61(2), 430-456, 2017 roll-call voting 数据,我们将战略性缺席与其他类型的缺席区分开来,并提供证据表明,这种行为与美国利益和校长竞争问题有关。考虑到这些非随机的缺席原因,我们可以更全面地了解弱国是如何参与国际机构的,并强调沉默是更大政治进程的结果。
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引用次数: 0
Empowering to constrain: Procedural checks in international organizations 从授权到制约:国际组织的程序性制约
Pub Date : 2024-04-20 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09541-8
Katherine M. Beall

Why would weak states accept rules which authorize strong states to take coercive action against them? I argue that, in some cases, this is a way of creating constraints over the exercise power in the form of procedural checks, or rules delineating the process through which power can legitimately be exercised. If stronger states become willing to exercise power against weak states in the absence of rules formally authorizing their behavior, this presents their actions as the new status quo. In response, weak states can attempt to re-establish constraints over the exercise of power by formally sanctioning unwanted actions, but doing so alongside procedural checks. To assess this argument, I examine the addition of a human rights suspension clause to the Lomé Convention, an aid and preferential trade agreement between the European Economic Community and the African, Caribbean, and Pacific (ACP) group of states. The ACP states accepted a suspension clause after nearly twenty years of arguing that such a clause was paternalistic and violated the norm of non-interference. Explanations for this decision that point to one-sided dominance of IOs by the strong or straightforward support for policies on the part of the weak cannot account for important dynamics, including continued objections to the practice of suspension by ACP states and the willingness of European states to accept and utilize procedural checks.

为什么弱国会接受授权强国对其采取强制行动的规则?我认为,在某些情况下,这是一种以程序性制约或划定合法行使权力的程序的规则的形式对行使权力进行约束的方式。如果强国愿意在没有正式授权其行为的规则的情况下对弱国行使权力,这就将其行为视为新的现状。作为回应,弱国可以试图通过正式制裁不受欢迎的行为来重新建立对权力行使的制约,但同时也要进行程序上的制约。为了评估这一论点,我研究了在《洛美协定》(欧洲经济共同体与非洲、加勒比和太平洋(ACP)国家集团之间的援助和优惠贸易协定)中增加人权中止条款的问题。非洲、加勒比和太平洋(ACP)国家经过近二十年的论证,认为中止条款是家长式的,违反了不干涉准则,因此接受了中止条款。对这一决定的解释是强国单方面主导国际组织或弱国直截了当地支持政策,但这种解释无法解释一些重要的动态因素,包括非加太国家继续反对中止条款的做法,以及欧洲国家愿意接受和利用程序性制约。
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引用次数: 0
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The review of international organizations
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