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The sources of influence in multilateral diplomacy: Replaceability and intergovernmental networks in international organizations 多边外交的影响力来源:国际组织中的可替换性和政府间网络
Pub Date : 2024-03-18 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09536-5

Abstract

While international historians and policy practitioners regularly highlight the utility of multilateral diplomacy as a quintessential “strategy of the weak,” International Relations (IR) scholars have generally downplayed the impact of diplomatic choices. The tools within IR theory to assess the impact of diplomacy remain underdeveloped, contributing to an inability to account for a highly proximate source of international influence. This article argues for a theoretical reengagement with the subject of multilateral diplomacy and, using insights from Social Network Analysis, develops a Diplomatic Impact Framework. Building on the novel concept of replaceability, the article contributes theoretically to the literature on diplomacy, as well as on small and middle powers. This framework captures the fundamentally relational character of diplomacy, isolating analytically this form of structural power from the influence conferred by superior material or institutional resources. Drawing extensively on a multinational collection of diplomatic documents and first-hand accounts, this multidisciplinary article probes the plausibility of the framework through a detailed comparative case study of Canada’s diplomatic influence at the United Nations General Assembly throughout two international security crises: the Korean War and the Suez Crisis.

摘要 国际历史学家和政策实践者经常强调多边外交是典型的 "弱者战略",而国际关系(IR)学者却普遍淡化外交选择的影响。国际关系理论中评估外交影响的工具仍不完善,导致无法解释国际影响力的一个高度近似的来源。本文主张从理论上重新探讨多边外交这一主题,并利用社会网络分析(Social Network Analysis)的见解,建立了外交影响框架(Diplomatic Impact Framework)。文章以可替代性这一新颖概念为基础,从理论上为有关外交以及中小强国的文献做出了贡献。该框架从根本上抓住了外交的关系特征,在分析上将这种形式的结构性权力与优越的物质或制度资源所赋予的影响力区分开来。这篇跨学科的文章广泛借鉴了多国外交文件和第一手资料,通过对加拿大在两次国际安全危机(朝鲜战争和苏伊士危机)中在联合国大会上的外交影响力的详细比较研究,探讨了这一框架的合理性。
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引用次数: 0
Effective climate clubs require ambition, leverage and insulation: Theorizing issue linkage in climate change and trade 有效的气候俱乐部需要雄心、杠杆和绝缘:气候变化与贸易中的问题联系理论化
Pub Date : 2024-03-18 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09535-6
Sam S. Rowan

Many proposals advocate linking climate and trade policy to improve climate cooperation. Since climate mitigation is non-excludable, mitigation cannot be enforced through issue-specific reciprocity, but linking mitigation with trade penalties on non-participants could incorporate trade’s enforcement powers into a climate club. However, this perspective has overlooked the relationship between climate policy preferences and existing trade flows. Using a model of issue linkage in climate and trade motivated by findings from the domestic political economy of international trade, I show that the necessary conditions for climate clubs are exacting. Effective climate–trade clubs require members with high levels of climate policy ambition, export leverage over laggards, and insulation from trade retaliation. However, I show that these three attributes do not necessarily co-occur theoretically or empirically. States that support the club’s goals on one dimension may undermine them on another. The findings provide insights into institutional design, climate politics, and the constraints on issue linkage in international cooperation.

许多建议主张将气候政策与贸易政策联系起来,以改善气候合作。由于气候减缓是非排他性的,因此不能通过针对具体问题的互惠来实施减缓,但将减缓与对非参与者的贸易惩罚联系起来,可以将贸易的执行力纳入气候俱乐部。然而,这种观点忽略了气候政策偏好与现有贸易流动之间的关系。在国际贸易国内政治经济学研究成果的推动下,我使用了一个气候与贸易问题联系模型,证明气候俱乐部的必要条件是苛刻的。有效的气候贸易俱乐部要求成员具有较高的气候政策雄心、对落后者的出口影响力以及免受贸易报复的能力。然而,我的研究表明,这三个属性在理论上或经验上并不一定同时存在。在一个维度上支持俱乐部目标的国家可能会在另一个维度上破坏这些目标。这些发现为国际合作中的制度设计、气候政治和问题联系的制约因素提供了启示。
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引用次数: 0
International constitutional advising: Introducing a new dataset 国际宪法咨询:引入新的数据集
Pub Date : 2024-03-05 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09530-x
Hanna Lerner, David Futscher Pereira, Nina Schlager

The article presents the first systematic comparative study on the growing involvement of international organizations in national constitution making around the world. Over the past three decades, the emerging field of international constitutional advising has undergone an intense process of institutionalization and professionalization, mirroring the increasing role constitution making is playing in both national and international politics. Despite the vast scope of the phenomenon, the involvement of foreign constitutional advisors in domestic constitution-drafting or constitutional reforms has received little scholarly attention. This article takes the first steps towards addressing this lacuna empirically, by introducing a new dataset on 46 international organizations involved in 730 constitutional advising projects in 145 countries between 1989 and 2017. We classified the organizations based on their type, their headquarters’ location, the countries they target, the kind of advising activities they perform and the level of directness of the advising intervention. While generally, we find a significant correlation between more direct constitutional advising activities and larger relative changes in the quality of democracy and larger numbers of constitutional systems in a country, the article suggests avenues for more nuanced research to better understand constitutional advising’s impact.

文章首次对国际组织越来越多地参与世界各地的国家宪法制定进行了系统的比较研究。在过去的三十年里,国际宪法顾问这一新兴领域经历了紧张的制度化和专业化进程,反映出制宪在国家和国际政治中发挥着越来越重要的作用。尽管这一现象范围广泛,但外国宪法顾问对国内宪法起草或宪法改革的参与却很少受到学术界的关注。本文引入了一个新的数据集,涉及 1989 年至 2017 年间参与 145 个国家 730 个宪法咨询项目的 46 个国际组织,从而迈出了实证解决这一空白的第一步。我们根据组织类型、总部所在地、目标国家、咨询活动类型以及咨询干预的直接程度对组织进行了分类。总体而言,我们发现更直接的宪法咨询活动与一个国家民主质量的较大相对变化和宪政制度的较多数量之间存在明显的相关性,但文章提出了进行更细致研究的途径,以更好地了解宪法咨询的影响。
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引用次数: 0
The power of the “weak” and international organizations 弱者 "的力量与国际组织
Pub Date : 2024-02-28 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09531-w
Duncan Snidal, Thomas Hale, Emily Jones, Claas Mertens, Karolina Milewicz

By nearly every measure, power in the international system is concentrated, meaning that most states lack significant power resources. And yet international relations theory tends to focus on the behavior of great powers. This special issue instead explores the strategies that “weak” states use in the context of international organizations both to advance their interests and to resist pressure from stronger states. We define weakness as a relative lack of power across one or more dimensions. While the literature, to the extent it has focused on weak actors, has too often defined weakness solely in material terms, we adopt a broader conception that builds on the influential typology of power by Barnett and Duvall (Barnett and Duvall, 2005a, Barnett and Duvall, International Organization 59, 39–75, 2005b). A multidimensional conceptualization of power allows analysts to show how actors that are weak in one dimension (often material power) may be stronger on other dimensions, giving them greater capacity for action than is often recognized. From this framework we create a typology of “strategies of the weak” that emphasizes the agency of weaker actors to make the most of their positions. The contributions to the special issue, summarized here, illuminate and substantiate many of these strategies across a diverse range of international organizations, understood as both forums and actors. As the articles show, these alternative theoretical mechanisms help explain how and why seemingly weak states sometimes fare better than a simplistic assessment of their material capabilities might suggest. By deepening our understanding of weakness and how it influences state behavior, the volume advances our theoretical understanding of how power is built, wielded, and resisted in and through international organization.

从几乎所有方面来看,国际体系中的权力都是集中的,这意味着大多数国家都缺乏重要的权力资源。然而,国际关系理论往往关注大国的行为。本特刊将探讨 "弱小 "国家在国际组织中为促进自身利益和抵制强国压力而采取的策略。我们将弱国定义为在一个或多个维度上相对缺乏实力。虽然文献关注的是弱小行为体,但往往仅从物质角度来定义弱小,而我们采用了更广泛的概念,该概念建立在巴尼特和杜瓦尔(Barnett and Duvall, 2005a, Barnett and Duvall, International Organization 59, 39-75, 2005b)颇具影响力的权力类型学基础之上。权力的多维概念化使分析人员能够说明,在某一维度(通常是物质权力)上处于弱势的行动者如何在其他维度上变得更强,从而使他们的行动能力比人们通常认识到的更强。根据这一框架,我们创建了一种 "弱者战略 "类型学,强调弱小行为者充分利用其地位的能动性。本特刊的文章(在此进行总结)阐明并证实了这些战略在各种国际组织中的应用,这些国际组织既可以被理解为论坛,也可以被理解为行动者。正如这些文章所显示的,这些替代性理论机制有助于解释为什么看似弱小的国家有时会比对其物质能力的简单评估所显示的更好。通过加深我们对弱国及其如何影响国家行为的理解,本卷推进了我们对权力如何在国际组织中建立、行使和抵制的理论理解。
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引用次数: 0
Re-contracting intergovernmental organizations: Membership change and the creation of linked intergovernmental organizations 重新签订合同的政府间组织:成员变化和建立联系的政府间组织
Pub Date : 2024-02-23 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09533-8
Andrew Lugg

How do intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) evolve? Cooperation through IGOs is difficult to maintain, as membership dynamics change dramatically over time, leading to dissatisfaction with the status quo. This paper argues that IGO members states create new affiliated bodies, which I call linked intergovernmental organizations (LIGOs), to “re-contract” their cooperation. This helps IGOs adapt to changing membership dynamics, including the addition of new members and shifting constellations of power and preference. LIGOs are particularly useful for weak or formerly weak states seeking to alter the institutional status quo. Several features of LIGOs incentivize their creation: (1) they bypass difficult-to-enact reforms at existing IGOs; (2) flexible design features increase the voice of dissatisfied constituencies; and (3) they are politically viable for dissatisfied and status quo members of IGOs. To test my argument, I analyze original data on 1,200 LIGOs created between 1945 and 2012. Multivariate statistical analyses show that LIGOs are created in response to shifting membership environments that create demands for change at existing IGOs. I complement the quantitative analysis with case studies of two significant LIGOs: The International Development Agency (IDA) and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). My theory suggests a dramatic rethinking of how international cooperation evolves and has broad implications for global governance in an increasingly multipolar world.

政府间组织(IGOs)是如何发展的?通过政府间组织开展的合作很难维持,因为随着时间的推移,成员动态会发生巨大变化,从而导致对现状的不满。本文认为,政府间组织成员国创建新的附属机构,我称之为联系政府间组织(LIGOs),以 "重新签订 "合作合同。这有助于政府间组织适应不断变化的成员动态,包括新成员的加入以及权力和偏好的变化。对于寻求改变体制现状的弱国或前弱国来说,政府间组织尤其有用。LIGOs的几个特点激励了它们的产生:(1)它们绕过了现有政府间组织难以实施的改革;(2)灵活的设计特点增加了不满选区的发言权;(3)它们对于政府间组织中不满和维持现状的成员来说在政治上是可行的。为了验证我的论点,我分析了 1945 年至 2012 年间成立的 1200 个地方政府间组织的原始数据。多变量统计分析显示,LIGO的创建是为了应对成员环境的变化,这种变化要求现有的政府间组织进行变革。我通过对国际开发署(IDA)和联合国环境规划署(UNEP)这两个重要LIGO的案例研究,对定量分析进行了补充。我的理论提出了对国际合作如何演变的重大反思,并对日益多极化世界中的全球治理产生了广泛影响。
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引用次数: 0
The only living guerrillero in New York: Cuba and the brokerage power of a resilient revisionist state 纽约唯一活着的游击队员:古巴与顽强的修正主义国家的经纪力量
Pub Date : 2024-02-22 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09532-9
Rafael Mesquita

This article explores how weak countries deflect systemic pressure towards change and even succeed in preserving old institutions to their advantage. By expanding Goddard’s theory of embedded revisionism to smaller powers, the study identifies strategies these states deploy to improve access and brokerage. We use the UN General Assembly Sponsorship Dataset to locate multilateral brokers and, after detecting Cuba’s centrality in this arena, we proceed to a heuristic case study. Havana’s maneuvers to offset its vulnerability during and after the Cold War reveal a mix of structural, institutional, and compulsory power. Specifically, its renewal of the Non-Aligned Movement even after the end of bipolarity, its maintenance of autocracy amidst the pressures for democratization, and later support of radicalized Latin American leaders provide insight regarding unexpected sources of network power available to a resilient rogue state.

这篇文章探讨了弱国如何转移变革的系统压力,甚至成功地维护旧体制,使之成为自己的优势。通过将戈达德的 "内嵌修正主义 "理论扩展到小国,本研究确定了这些国家为改善参与和中介地位而采取的策略。我们利用联合国大会赞助数据集来定位多边掮客,在发现古巴在这一领域的中心地位后,我们开始了启发式案例研究。哈瓦那在冷战期间和冷战后为抵消其脆弱性而采取的行动揭示了结构性、制度性和强制性权力的组合。具体而言,即使在两极分化结束后,哈瓦那仍继续参与不结盟运动,在民主化的压力下维持专制,以及后来对激进的拉美领导人的支持,这些都让我们深入了解了一个顽强的流氓国家所拥有的意想不到的网络力量来源。
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引用次数: 0
To reform or to replace? Succession as a mechanism of institutional change in intergovernmental organisations 改革还是取代?继任作为政府间组织机构变革的一种机制
Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-023-09527-y
Mette Eilstrup-Sangiovanni, Daniel Verdier

Given high costs of negotiating formal international institutions, states are widely expected to adapt, reform, and repurpose existing institutions rather than create new ones. Nevertheless, during the past century some 60 intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) have been directly replaced by a legal successor. Why do states sometimes dissolve an existing IGO only to replace it with a new one that takes over the incumbent organization’s mandate and assets—a practice known as institutional succession? We offer a theory of institutional succession and illustrate with examples. Against the dominant belief that creating new IGOs is a choice of last resort, we argue that reform and succession are equally expedient tools for achieving institutional change but address different negotiating hurdles. By creating a new institution (as opposed to amending an existing one) succession bypasses veto players that may stunt reform. However, succession suffers from potential diseconomies-of-scale (since not every member of an existing IGO may join the successor) which reform does not. Depending on which negotiation hurdle prevails, reform will be preferred to succession or vice versa. Our analysis advances existing understandings of institutional contestation and change within the life cycle of an international organisation.

鉴于正式国际机构的谈判成本高昂,人们普遍认为国家会调整、改革和重新利用现有机构,而不是创建新机构。然而,在过去的一个世纪里,约有 60 个政府间组织(IGOs)被合法的继承者直接取代。为什么国家有时会解散一个现有的政府间组织,然后由一个新的政府间组织取代,接管现有组织的任务和资产--这种做法被称为机构继承?我们提出了机构继承理论,并举例说明。与创建新的政府间组织是不得已的选择这一主流观点相反,我们认为改革和继承同样是实现机构变革的便捷工具,但要解决不同的谈判障碍。通过创建一个新机构(而不是修改现有机构),继任者绕过了可能阻碍改革的否决者。然而,继任可能存在规模不经济问题(因为并非现有政府间组织的每个成员都可能加入继任者),而改革则不会。取决于哪种谈判障碍占了上风,改革会比继承更受青睐,反之亦然。我们的分析推进了对国际组织生命周期内机构竞争与变革的现有理解。
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引用次数: 0
Leaders in the United Nations General Assembly: Revitalization or politicization? 联合国大会的领导人:振兴还是政治化?
Pub Date : 2024-01-27 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-023-09524-1
Alexander Baturo, Julia Gray

How do leaders address the world in service of international cooperation, and do their messages enhance or detract from the global agenda? Leaders increasingly appear at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), a deliberative forum meant for diplomacy, not politics. At the same time, the UNGA has long undergone revitalization efforts, and leaders’ contributions could potentially ensure more meaningful cooperation. Building on theories of leader communication, we argue that, in contrast to other country representatives, heads of state have more leeway to deviate from the assembly’s priorities; as politicians, they have incentives to discuss their own, more particularistic, topics. Drawing from novel data on leaders’ speeches in the UNGA, we use text analytics to show that leaders tend to depart from the policy agenda of the session. Furthermore, national political leaders speak more plainly, centering speech on themselves and departing from the general conventions of diplomatic debate. This suggests that, while leaders’ attendance potentially generates more publicity and visibility for the UNGA, their contributions may also undermine the general debate. Our findings shed light on the ways in which leaders can politicize mulitlateral cooperation, and we give evidence for the role of individuals in the vitality of international organizations.

为促进国际合作,领导人如何向世界发表讲话?他们的讲话是加强还是削弱了全球议程?各国领导人越来越多地出现在联合国大会(UNGA)上,这是一个为外交而非政治而设的议事论坛。同时,联合国大会长期以来一直在努力振兴,领导人的贡献有可能确保更有意义的合作。在领导人沟通理论的基础上,我们认为,与其他国家代表相比,国家元首有更大的余地偏离大会的优先事项;作为政治家,他们有动力讨论自己的、更加特殊的话题。我们利用有关领导人在联大发言的新数据,通过文本分析表明,领导人倾向于偏离会议的政策议程。此外,国家政治领导人的发言更加直白,以自己为中心,偏离了外交辩论的一般惯例。这表明,虽然领导人的出席可能会为联大带来更多的宣传和知名度,但他们的发言也可能会破坏一般性辩论。我们的研究结果揭示了领导人将多边合作政治化的方式,并为个人在国际组织活力中的作用提供了证据。
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引用次数: 0
Competing judgments: Multiple election observers and post-election contention 相互竞争的判断:多名选举观察员和选举后的争论
Pub Date : 2024-01-19 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-023-09528-x
Kelly Morrison, Daniela Donno, Burcu Savun, Perisa Davutoglu

By influencing beliefs about electoral quality, international election observation missions (EOMs) play an important role in shaping post-election contention. As the number and variety of international organizations (IOs) involved in election observation has grown, many elections host multiple missions and disagreement among them is common. This phenomenon of competing judgments is particularly prevalent in electoral authoritarian regimes, as leaders seek to invite ‘friendly’ IOs to counteract possible criticism from more established EOMs. Drawing from research about the varying domestic credibility of EOMs and the demobilizing effects of disinformation, we argue that compared to unified criticism, competing judgments among EOMs increase uncertainty about electoral quality, which in turn dampens post-election contention. Using newly available data on EOM statements as reported in the international media, we show that competing judgments reduce post-election contention in a sample of 115 countries from 1990–2012. A survey experiment in Turkey solidifies the micro-foundations of our argument: individuals exposed to competing judgments have more positive perceptions of election quality and less support for post-election mobilization, compared to those receiving information only about EOM criticism. Our findings provide systematic evidence that governments holding flawed elections have incentives to invite multiple election observation missions to hedge against the political risks of criticism.

国际选举观察团(EOMs)通过影响人们对选举质量的看法,在形成选举后的争议方面发挥着重要作用。随着参与选举观察的国际组织(IOs)的数量和种类不断增加,许多选举都会接待多个观察团,而观察团之间的意见分歧也很常见。这种相互竞争判断的现象在选举专制政权中尤为普遍,因为领导人试图邀请 "友好的 "国际组织来抵消更成熟的选举观察团可能提出的批评。借鉴有关选举观察团在国内的不同可信度和虚假信息的去动员化效应的研究,我们认为,与统一批评相比,选举观察团之间的竞争性判断会增加选举质量的不确定性,这反过来又会抑制选举后的争论。利用国际媒体报道的选举观察团声明的最新数据,我们表明,在 1990-2012 年的 115 个国家样本中,竞争性判断减少了选举后的争议。在土耳其进行的一项调查实验巩固了我们论点的微观基础:与那些只接收到选举观察团批评信息的人相比,接触到竞争性判断的人对选举质量的看法更积极,对选举后动员的支持更少。我们的研究结果提供了系统性证据,表明举行有缺陷选举的政府有动机邀请多个选举观察团,以规避批评带来的政治风险。
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引用次数: 0
Catching flies with vinegar or honey? Shaming, praising, and public support for international agreements 用醋还是蜂蜜捕捉苍蝇?国际协议的羞辱、赞美和公众支持
Pub Date : 2024-01-15 DOI: 10.1007/s11558-024-09529-4

Abstract

How does international shaming and praising affect domestic support for joining international agreements? Many scholars have examined the role of shaming in leading countries to support international agreements, and a wide literature on social opprobrium suggests that both governments and citizens are sensitive to being named and shamed. Yet far less is known about the dynamics of praise in international relations and how they compare to the dynamics of shame. This article uses a survey experiment to test and compare the effects of praising and shaming on individuals’ support for their government joining an international agreement. Specifically, it tests whether praising or shaming from other countries leads individuals to support their country joining a hypothetical international agreement that would ban the use of explosive weapons. It finds that praising is effective in increasing public support for joining the treaty, while shaming is not. By examining the extent to which praising and shaming can shape public opinion on international security agreements, this article provides new insights regarding how states and NGOs can use these rhetorical tools to build support for new legal norms. For policymakers and activists seeking to promote new norms and agreements, understanding the role of praising and shaming in changing public opinion can help them better direct their resources and improve their strategies.

摘要 国际上的羞辱和赞扬如何影响国内对加入国际协定的支持?许多学者研究了羞辱在引导国家支持国际协议中的作用,大量关于社会指责的文献表明,政府和公民对被点名和羞辱都很敏感。然而,人们对国际关系中赞美的动力以及它们与羞辱的动力之间的比较却知之甚少。本文通过一个调查实验来检验和比较赞美和羞辱对个人支持其政府加入国际协议的影响。具体而言,文章检验了其他国家的赞扬或羞辱是否会导致个人支持本国加入一项禁止使用爆炸性武器的假定国际协议。研究发现,赞美能有效增加公众对加入条约的支持,而羞辱则不然。通过研究赞美和羞辱能在多大程度上影响公众对国际安全协议的看法,本文就国家和非政府组织如何利用这些修辞工具为新的法律规范争取支持提供了新的见解。对于寻求推广新规范和新协议的政策制定者和活动家来说,了解赞美和羞辱在改变公众舆论中的作用有助于他们更好地引导资源和改进策略。
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引用次数: 0
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The review of international organizations
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