Agricultural Systems最新文献

{"title":"Exploring entry points to circularity in food production from a farming system perspective","authors":"Jana Firse ,&nbsp;Veera Naukkarinen ,&nbsp;Marjaana Toivonen ,&nbsp;Carl Timler ,&nbsp;Jeroen Groot ,&nbsp;Rogier Schulte ,&nbsp;Kari Koppelmäki","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104625","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104625","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Redesigning food systems for circularity has been proposed as a strategy to reduce environmental impacts, reliance on external inputs, and to support a shift towards healthy diets. Finland's specialised and input-reliant food production systems combined with efforts to curb agricultural emissions and transition to more plant-based diets motivate exploration of future food system scenarios.</div></div><div><h3>Aims</h3><div>We explored two entry points to circular food production, localised food systems and the production of plant-based foods, and analysed their potential to enhance the environmental performance of Finnish farms. We further aimed to complement larger scale studies on circularity with a farm level perspective that accounts for heterogeneity and the farmers' perspective.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>We generated alternative farm configurations for eight specialised arable farms in Finland. This explorative modelling study was based on three scenarios: (i) farm development based on the farmers' preferences, (ii) a localised farming system increasing nutrient and biomass cycling, (iii) maximising the production of plant-based foods.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>Localised and plant-based scenarios resulted in distinctly different production systems. While scenario (ii) reduced food production but lowered environmental impacts and input reliance, scenario (iii) led to highest reductions of greenhouse gas emissions and increases in overall food production. Farmer-led redesigns (i) showed large variability in perceived options for change reflecting farm-specific lock-ins and opportunities.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>Our results underline the role of supporting objectives, such as self-sufficiency or dietary change in designing circular food systems. The heterogeneity across farms calls for a context-specific approach in supporting farmers to deliver on environmental goals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"233 ","pages":"Article 104625"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145920753","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Export-attributed carbon footprint of cotton production in arid China: A life cycle and driver analysis","authors":"Jian Liu ,&nbsp;Yu Zhang ,&nbsp;Cun Chang ,&nbsp;Shuai Wu ,&nbsp;Wei Yan ,&nbsp;Yonglong Han ,&nbsp;Yonghui Wang ,&nbsp;Xiaofei Ma","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104632","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104632","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Context&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;Cotton is a globally traded commodity with disproportionately large environmental costs. Although its land share is modest, input use and energy demand are high in arid irrigated systems. The Tarim River Basin (TRB) in Xinjiang, China—one of the country's principal cotton-producing regions—remains underrepresented in long-term, spatially explicit carbon accounting, particularly with respect to responsibilities embedded in international trade. An assessment that connects farm-level processes, export attribution, and driver diagnosis is needed to guide equitable and efficient decarbonization.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Objective&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;Quantify the carbon footprint of cotton production in the TRB on 1 km grids for 2000–2020; develop and apply a transparent export-attribution framework that assigns to the region an equitable share of emissions embedded in cotton trade from China; and isolate principal biophysical and socioeconomic drivers using ridge regression and structural equation modeling (SEM) to identify policy-sensitive levers for mitigation.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Methods&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;We conducted a cradle-to-farm-gate life-cycle assessment (LCA) at a 1 km spatial resolution from 2000 to 2020. We compiled activity data and emission factors to derive product-, area-, and value-based indicators, including &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mi&gt;CF&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mo&gt;_&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;mi&gt;Y&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt; (kg CO₂-eq·kg&lt;sup&gt;−1&lt;/sup&gt;), &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mi&gt;CF&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mo&gt;_&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;mi&gt;A&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt; (kg CO₂-eq·hm&lt;sup&gt;−2&lt;/sup&gt;), and carbon economic efficiency (&lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mi&gt;CEE&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt;; kg CO₂-eq·CNY&lt;sup&gt;−1&lt;/sup&gt;; CNY denotes the Chinese yuan). A national-proportional export-attribution scheme was applied to allocate export-embedded carbon emissions to the TRB. Based on this allocation, trade-intensity metrics were calculated, including &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mi&gt;CF&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mo&gt;_&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;msub&gt;&lt;mi&gt;Y&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mi&gt;export&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/msub&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt; and &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;msub&gt;&lt;mi&gt;CEE&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mi&gt;export&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/msub&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt;. Drivers were quantified through ridge regression and a confirmatory SEM spanning land use, vegetation condition, topography, climate, and socioeconomic context; direct and indirect effects were decomposed. Uncertainty was examined via sensitivity tests on key activity data and emission factors.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Results and Conclusions&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;Total emissions more than doubled from 2000 to 2020. In contrast, the intensity indicators changed differently: &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mi&gt;CF&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mo&gt;_&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;mi&gt;Y&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt; remained near 2.83 kg CO₂-eq·kg&lt;sup&gt;−1&lt;/sup&gt;, &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mi&gt;CEE&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt; decreased from 0.25 to 0.14 kg CO₂-eq·CNY&lt;sup&gt;−1&lt;/sup&gt;, and &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mi&gt;CF&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mo&gt;_&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;mi&gt;A&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt; increased from about 3900 to 5200 kg CO₂-eq·hm&lt;sup&gt;−2&lt;/sup&gt;, indicating increasing land-based emission intensity. Dominant sources were labor (34.4 %), electricity (23.8 %), and diesel (14.8 %), highlighting priorities to modernize labor structure and decarbonize irrigation","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"233 ","pages":"Article 104632"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145880386","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Greenhouse gas emission characteristics of farmland in the Guanzhong region under varied water-nitrogen management measures based on the DNDC model","authors":"Siya Wang ,&nbsp;Jiaxin Lu ,&nbsp;Shikun Sun ,&nbsp;Ruoqing Hu ,&nbsp;Jiabei Li ,&nbsp;Jie Pang ,&nbsp;Yuxin Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104628","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104628","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Context</h3><div>Irrigation and nitrogen application are essential agronomic practices for enhancing crop yields, yet they also represent potential levers for mitigating agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in cropping systems.</div></div><div><h3>Objective</h3><div>This study aimed to identify optimal water‑nitrogen management strategies that maximize grain yield while minimizing GHG emissions in winter wheat-summer maize rotations within the Guanzhong Plain.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>The Denitrification-Decomposition (DNDC) model was rigorously calibrated and validated using empirical field datasets. Individual and synergistic effects of irrigation levels (spanning 0–120 % field capacity, FC) and nitrogen application rates (0–300 kg N ha⁻¹) on GHG emissions were evaluated through systematic simulations of 88 distinct water‑nitrogen management scenarios.</div></div><div><h3>Results and Conclusions</h3><div>Maximum yields were achieved at 85 % FC irrigation coupled with 225 kg N ha⁻¹ for winter wheat (8431 kg ha⁻¹) and 85 % FC irrigation with 250 kg N ha⁻¹ for summer maize (9806 kg ha⁻¹), beyond which yields plateaued. Cumulative N₂O emissions ranged from 0.07 to 0.75 kg N ha⁻¹ (wheat) and 0.10–1.37 kg N ha⁻¹ (maize). CO₂ emissions initially increased with inputs before stabilizing at 3050 kg C ha⁻¹ (wheat) and 2464 kg C ha⁻¹ (maize) under optimal regimes. Precision management (85 % FC + crop-specific N) synchronizes yield optimization with GHG mitigation, achieving 18–22 % emission reduction relative to conventional practices while maintaining 95–97 % of maximum yield potential.</div></div><div><h3>Significance</h3><div>This work establishes a scientifically validated framework for climate-smart cereal production in semi-arid regions. The identified water‑nitrogen regimes (85 % FC + 225 kg N ha⁻¹ wheat; 85 % FC + 250 kg N ha⁻¹ maize) enable sustainable intensification by concurrently addressing food security and decarbonization goals in global cropping systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"233 ","pages":"Article 104628"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145880385","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Research frameworks in agricultural living labs: A systematic review and comparative analysis","authors":"Maryam Yousefi ,&nbsp;Bettina Matzdorf ,&nbsp;Frank Ewert","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104629","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104629","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Context</h3><div>Agricultural Living Labs (LLs) have emerged as a promising approach to foster innovation and sustainability in agroecosystems, addressing complex food system challenges. Despite the growing number of LL initiatives, little is known about the research frameworks that guide their design, implementation, and evaluation.</div></div><div><h3>Objective</h3><div>This study systematically reviews peer-reviewed literature to identify and synthesize the conceptual, methodological, and theoretical frameworks applied in agricultural LLs.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>We developed an analytical framework derived from core LL characteristics to assess how these research frameworks address agricultural context integration, stakeholder involvement, innovation processes, and sustainability outcomes.</div></div><div><h3>Results and conclusions</h3><div>The results revealed six research frameworks, each characterized by a distinct analytical focus, including Coupled-Systems Perspective (enabling policy integration), Nexus Approach (cross-sectoral resource management), Participatory Action Research (PAR) (stakeholder empowerment), the Systems Innovation Approach (SIA) (supporting systemic innovation), Design-Oriented Case Study (digital solution design), and Boundary Objects Framework (cross-actor collaboration). These research frameworks play an essential role in structuring LL processes, particularly in defining system boundaries, actor involvement, and pathways for knowledge co-creation. However, our review highlights that in the agricultural LLs, most frameworks lack explicit consideration of economic sustainability or business model development, and few offer structured tools for long-term impact assessment, which can be a key factor for the long-term success of LLs.</div></div><div><h3>Significance</h3><div>This study contributes to reinforcing the foundations of agricultural LLs and guides researchers and practitioners to select or adapt suitable approaches for future LL initiatives in agriculture.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"233 ","pages":"Article 104629"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145880384","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate change impacts on rainfed maize production of small-scale cropping systems in Eastern Cape, South Africa","authors":"Luleka Dlamini ,&nbsp;Olivier Crespo ,&nbsp;Jos van Dam ,&nbsp;Deborah V. Gaso ,&nbsp;Allard de Wit","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104627","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104627","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Context:</h3><div>Climate change poses a growing threat to rainfed maize production systems in southern Africa. The region is warming at nearly twice the global average, intensifying climate extremes and disrupting maize development, with small-scale farmers particularly vulnerable due to their limited adaptive capacity and resource access.</div></div><div><h3>Objective:</h3><div>This study assesses the potential impact of projected future climates on actual water-limited maize yield, phenology, and water stress in small-scale farming systems in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa.</div></div><div><h3>Methods:</h3><div>We used five global climate models and the WOFOST model to simulate maize growth and yield under three emission scenarios. Maize responses were assessed at a farm level for the near future (2026–2055) and compared to the historical baseline period (1985–2014). We considered five planting dates and five maize varieties.</div></div><div><h3>Results and Conclusions:</h3><div>The results show that the annual average temperature is projected to increase by up to 8.3% coupled with a 95% increase in the number of summer days (day with maximum temperature over 30 °C) under SSP585. Precipitation trends were less consistent and highly variable across years and models. Simulations under conventional management predicted shorter growing cycle duration (by up to 25 days) and grain filling period (by up to 15 days), leading to significant yield losses (up to 14%) under high-emission scenarios, particularly on farms with existing high water stress. However, adaptation strategies, such as early planting and the use of medium-maturity varieties, significantly improved yield performance. These results highlight the combined effects of warming, phenological acceleration, and water stress on maize productivity, while emphasizing the value of localized adaptation.</div></div><div><h3>Significance</h3><div>: Adjusting planting dates and selecting suitable varieties offer low-cost adaptation options, but alone may not suffice under future climate conditions. Integrating these with broader strategies is essential for building long-term resilience and ensuring food security under increasingly uncertain agro-climate conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"233 ","pages":"Article 104627"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145837420","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Willing or unable? The cognitive–resource mismatch behind farmers' adaptive behavior under agricultural disasters","authors":"Zhiyuan Zhu,&nbsp;Yongzhong Feng,&nbsp;Binkun Wu,&nbsp;Shuo Zhang,&nbsp;Xu Ma,&nbsp;Guangxin Ren,&nbsp;Gaihe Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104612","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104612","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>CONTEXT</h3><div>Climate-related disasters have become institutionalized risks in agricultural systems, with smallholder farmers particularly vulnerable. Conventional explanations focusing solely on “lack of perception” or “lack of resources” fail to fully account for under-adaptation. Emerging evidence suggests that structural misalignment between risk perception and resource capacity—termed “cognitive–resource mismatch”—is a critical constraint.</div></div><div><h3>OBJECTIVE</h3><div>This study investigates how cognitive–resource mismatch suppresses adaptive behavior, identifies “willing but unable” (high perception–low resource) and “able but unwilling” (low perception–high resource) groups, and examines their differentiated effects on disaster recovery and household heterogeneity.</div></div><div><h3>METHODS</h3><div>Using survey data from 3240 households in the Guanzhong Plain, China, we constructed indices of risk perception and resource capacity, and developed a mismatch indicator. Econometric models—including OLS, Ordered Probit, 2SLS with instrumental variables, and Lewbel-IV—were employed, alongside heterogeneity and robustness analyses.</div></div><div><h3>RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS</h3><div>Both mismatch types significantly reduce adaptive behavior and weaken post-disaster recovery. The effect is strongest among female-headed, resource-poor, and disaster-inexperienced households. Results reveal non-linear complementarity between cognition and resources, showing that adaptation failure arises from systemic misalignment rather than isolated individual deficiencies.</div></div><div><h3>SIGNIFICANCE</h3><div>The study introduces the concept of alignment-sensitive governance, emphasizing differentiated policies to reduce mismatch. Financial and insurance instruments can empower the “willing but unable,” while behavioral activation and risk communication can mobilize the “able but unwilling.” This framework advances adaptation theory, highlights equity and climate justice dimensions, and provides actionable insights for precision governance in agriculture and beyond.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"233 ","pages":"Article 104612"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145836966","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Soil health and agricultural land suitability assessment of highlands of the Eastern Ghats using geospatial index","authors":"Rakesh Paul,&nbsp;Rangabhatla Saishree,&nbsp;Monalisa Ghadei,&nbsp;B. Anjan Kumar Prusty","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104622","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104622","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>CONTEXT</h3><div>Land Suitability assessment emphasizes integrating the evaluation of biophysical and environmental attributes to determine sustainable land use. Koraput district of the Eastern Ghats, one of India's agrobiodiversity hotspots, lacks studies on land suitability mapping and index-based micro-scale quantification. This study addresses these gaps by developing a novel Agricultural Land Suitability Index (ALSI) integrating soil physicochemical, topographic, and climatic variables.</div></div><div><h3>OBJECTIVE</h3><div>The study aimed to assess soil health status and to understand its interrelationship with the agriculturally suitable areas through development of geospatial index using hybrid modelling.</div></div><div><h3>METHODS</h3><div>A total of 24 soil parameters and derived indices were analysed following standard protocols. Multi-criteria Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used along with the Weighted Overlay Modelling (WOM), incorporating key geospatial indices like Normalised Difference Red Edge (NDRE) and Rainfall Erosivity (R-factor), to derive the index, i.e. ALSI. The said index was developed using the assigned weights and raster values of each variable and socio-economic information, collected through semi-structured interview, were also integrated to establish an interrelationship.</div></div><div><h3>RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS</h3><div>Soil health indicators have shown spatial heterogeneity across the Eastern Ghats highlands<em>.</em> A strong positive correlation (R² = 0.883) between Agricultural Land Suitability and ALSI confirms that soil health is the primary determinant of land suitability. Out of 1078 low suitable grids (1 km² dimension), there exist low (958 grids), moderate (114 grids), and high (06 grids) ALSI categories suggesting localized areas of better potential within a generally unsuitable landscape. A similar pattern was observed in case of the Moderate and High suitability classes. Approximately 70 % of high-suitability grids have shown low to moderate ALSI. This indicates that edaphic factors are controlling the agricultural output in the agrobiodiversity hotspot, along with the influence of climatic and topographic parameters. These areas have been identified as Priority Management Zones, which was also supported by the socio-economic factors, highlighting their implications in site-specific soil resilience planning and management.</div></div><div><h3>SIGNIFICANCE</h3><div>The findings provide a region-specific and soil-specific perspective of land evaluation. This approach enables targeted agricultural interventions and land suitability-based strategic crop management. Together, these approaches promote sustainable agriculture in the agriculture-dominated areas of the Eastern Ghats and beyond.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"233 ","pages":"Article 104622"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145836969","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Pathogen and pest communities in agroecosystems across climate gradients: Anticipating future challenges in the highland tropics","authors":"Romaric A. Mouafo-Tchinda ,&nbsp;Aaron I. Plex Sulá ,&nbsp;Berea A. Etherton ,&nbsp;Joshua S. Okonya ,&nbsp;Gloria Valentine Nakato ,&nbsp;Yanru Xing ,&nbsp;Jacobo Robledo ,&nbsp;Ashish Adhikari ,&nbsp;Guy Blomme ,&nbsp;Déo Kantungeko ,&nbsp;Anastase Nduwayezu ,&nbsp;Jan F. Kreuze ,&nbsp;Jürgen Kroschel ,&nbsp;James P. Legg ,&nbsp;Karen A. Garrett","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104619","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104619","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3><em>CONTEXT</em></h3><div>Tropical agricultural systems must respond to current and future pathogen and pest communities. An important research gap is how climate change may shift the geographic distribution of tropical pathogens and pests.</div></div><div><h3><em>OBJECTIVE</em></h3><div>We evaluated the geographic risk of 27 pathogens and pests in four food security crops (banana, cassava, potato, and sweetpotato) in the Great Lakes region of Africa, and potential future risk under climate change. We analyzed model performance for each pathogen and pest, assessing the potential for changes in geographic distribution, and for decision support systems to facilitate management.</div></div><div><h3><em>METHODS</em></h3><div>Cropland connectivity analysis identified locations likely important in the spread of crop-specific pathogens and pests. We surveyed the 27 economically important pathogens and pests in Rwanda and Burundi, mapping the distribution of each across climate gradients and quantifying associations. We used machine learning to model each species as a function of environmental variables, including host landscape. We also evaluated future temperatures across altitudes under climate change scenarios.</div></div><div><h3><em>RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS</em></h3><div>Among ten algorithms evaluated, random forests and support vector machines generally performed best for predicting severity or infestation. Host landscape variables were useful predictors for some species. Based on climate matching, 44 % of the pathogens and pests could become more common with warmer temperatures at higher altitudes, while 17 % may become less common.</div></div><div><h3><em>SIGNIFICANCE</em></h3><div>These findings indicate how crop health in the region requires adaptation to multiple sustainability challenges. The results also indicate which pathogen and pest species have the potential for development of decision support models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"233 ","pages":"Article 104619"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145836968","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A biogenic life cycle approach towards estimating the carbon intensity of wool production: Evidence from six Australian case studies","authors":"James Blignaut ,&nbsp;Paul Swan ,&nbsp;Lemuel Blignaut","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104631","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104631","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Context</h3><div>Life cycle assessments (LCA) of wool typically associate this natural textile fibre with a high greenhouse gas emissions intensity because of enteric emissions. We analysed the application of 14 LCAs published between 2010 and 2024 and found that they focussed exclusively on emissions, disregarding the fact that wool production is embedded in a biogenic system. ISO 14067:2018 recognises biogenic carbon but has not been applied to wool yet. Here we seek to rectify this.</div></div><div><h3>Objective</h3><div>This study explores the application of ISO 14067:2018 to six representative Australian wool enterprises, extending the detailed LCA case study data from <span><span>Wiedemann et al. (2016)</span></span> to define and map the flows of biogenic carbon ingested by grazing sheep. Thereafter we explore the impact of key aspects of system biogenic function on calculated wool emissions intensity within the sheep production system.</div></div><div><h3>Results and Conclusions</h3><div>Mapping of ingested carbon flows across enterprises showed that the major carbon destinations were manure (54.1 %), followed by respiration (22.7 %), urine (7.5 %), and enteric emissions (5.2 %). Exploration of the emissions intensity of wool production showed that while biogenic model outputs closely correlated with those of <span><span>Wiedemann et al. (2016)</span></span> when biogenic carbon was excluded, emissions intensities were reduced by the addition of biogenic functionality, declining by on average 102 % with retention of 66.7 % of manure within the grazing system. We conclude that conducting LCA of biological products without addressing biogenic carbon inflates the emission intensity.</div></div><div><h3>Significance</h3><div>For the first time, the on-farm cradle-to-farm gate flow of biogenic carbon of Australian greasy wool production are comprehensively analysed in a manner that conforms with ISO 14067:2018; it has a major impact on wool's carbon footprint.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"233 ","pages":"Article 104631"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145836970","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing climate risk and adaptive strategies for forage production in Brazilian pasture-based livestock under future climate scenarios","authors":"H.B. Brunetti ,&nbsp;I.M. Fattori Junior ,&nbsp;T.S.S. Dias ,&nbsp;M.L.A. de Melo ,&nbsp;P.M. Santos ,&nbsp;J.R.M. Pezzopane ,&nbsp;K.J. Boote ,&nbsp;F.R. Marin","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104615","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104615","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>CONTEXT</h3><div>Brazil hosts the world's largest commercial cattle herd, primarily raised in pasture-based systems that occupy around 164 million ha. Increasing beef production while minimizing environmental impacts is essential. Although climate change is expected to significantly affect global crop yields, comprehensive assessments of its impacts on forage production in Brazil remain scarce.</div></div><div><h3>OBJECTIVE</h3><div>Evaluate (i) the effects of climate change on forage yield, seasonality, and climate risk for Marandu palisadegrass (<em>Urochloa brizantha</em> cv. BRS Marandu) and Mombaça guineagrass (<em>Megathyrsus maximus</em> cv. BRS Mombaça) by 2050, and (ii) the effectiveness of pasture deferment and forage ensiling as mitigation strategies.</div></div><div><h3>METHODS</h3><div>We used the process-based CROPGRO-Perennial Forage Model (CROPGRO-PFM) driven by 10 Global Circulation Models under SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios for the 2035–2065 period, compared to a baseline (1989–2019). For the deferment simulation, pastures were left ungrazed for 75 days preceding the three consecutive months with the lowest herbage accumulation rates (HAR), assuming that 50 % of the accumulated dead material remained available for intake. Ensiling was simulated for 90 days during the three months with the highest HARs, assuming 75 % dry matter recovery, which was subsequently allocated to the three months with the lowest HAR. Both management practices were applied to 30 % of the pasture area.</div></div><div><h3>RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS</h3><div>Results indicate a slight decline in annual forage yield, increased drought stress during winter and spring, and intensified seasonality. Climate risk, however, is projected to decrease as the magnitude and period of drought stress and forage deficits and supply will be more predictable, facilitating feed planning. Deferment (Marandu) and ensiling (Mombaça) were effective in reducing seasonality. Ensiling also reversed projected yield declines, whereas deferment improved yield, though not enough to reverse declines. Projected drought stress may require renewed focus on drought-tolerant cultivars and strategic use of rainy-season surpluses to buffer dry-season deficits.</div></div><div><h3>SIGNIFICANCE</h3><div>This study provides the first robust, multi-model, process-based evaluation of climate change impacts on Brazilian forage systems, offering valuable guidance for breeders, policymakers, and producers aiming to enhance the resilience and sustainability of pasture-based livestock systems under future climate conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"233 ","pages":"Article 104615"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145836967","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}