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Algorithm aversion in agricultural decision-making: Trust dynamics, barriers, and fertiliser-related decision support 农业决策中的算法厌恶:信任动态、障碍和肥料相关决策支持
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104630
Jack H. Grant , Dorothee Scharpenberg , Louise Manning

CONTEXT

Algorithm-based fertiliser recommendations offer substantial potential to improve Nitrogen Use Efficiency (NUE) and support economic and environmental sustainability. However, adoption among farmers in the United Kingdom (UK) remains limited, partly due to algorithm aversion, i.e., the tendency to distrust or avoid algorithmic-generated recommendations, even when they provide benefits.

OBJECTIVE

This study examines algorithm aversion in fertiliser-related decision-making among UK farmers and agronomists. Aiming to identify key barriers to adopting decision-support tools (DSTs), improving understanding of stakeholder trust dynamics, and exploring strategies to improve uptake.

METHODS

An online survey of 50 farmers and 26 agronomists assessed confidence in algorithmic recommendations versus human advice, understanding of NUE, perceived adoption barriers, and openness to non-traditional fertiliser recommendations. A follow-up workshop with 10 participants in DSTs trials provided qualitative insights into trust and usability.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

Farmers reported significantly greater trust in human advice compared to algorithmic recommendations (median 8 vs. 6, p < .001), whereas agronomists showed the reverse pattern (median 8 vs. 7.0, p < .001). Perceived barriers included cost concerns, poor system integration, complexity, and confusion over metrics. Whilst some farmers showed low levels of NUE literacy, agronomists demonstrated higher NUE literacy. Farmers relied on advice grounded in social trust and shared beliefs, while agronomists viewed algorithmic outputs as complements to technical expertise. Workshop participants found DST dashboards informative but often overwhelming.

SIGNIFICANCE

Addressing algorithm aversion through improved interface design, transparency, and tailored education, particularly via trusted advisors, may bridge the trust gap and facilitate digital tool adoption.
基于算法的肥料建议为提高氮肥利用效率(NUE)和支持经济和环境可持续性提供了巨大的潜力。然而,英国农民的采用仍然有限,部分原因是算法厌恶,即倾向于不信任或避免算法生成的建议,即使它们提供了好处。目的:本研究考察了英国农民和农学家在肥料相关决策中的算法厌恶。旨在确定采用决策支持工具(DSTs)的主要障碍,提高对利益相关者信任动态的理解,并探索提高吸收的策略。方法对50名农民和26名农学家进行了一项在线调查,评估了对算法建议与人类建议的信心、对NUE的理解、感知到的采用障碍以及对非传统肥料建议的开放程度。有10名参与者参加的后续讲习班提供了对信任和可用性的定性见解。结果和结论:与算法建议相比,农民对人类建议的信任度明显更高(中位数为8比6,p < .001),而农学家则表现出相反的模式(中位数为8比7.0,p < .001)。感知到的障碍包括成本问题、较差的系统集成、复杂性和对度量的混淆。虽然一些农民表现出较低的氮肥识字率,但农学家表现出较高的氮肥识字率。农民依赖基于社会信任和共同信念的建议,而农学家则将算法输出视为技术专长的补充。研讨会参与者发现DST仪表板信息丰富,但往往令人不知所措。意义:通过改进界面设计、透明度和量身定制的教育,特别是通过值得信赖的顾问,解决算法厌恶问题,可以弥合信任差距,促进数字工具的采用。
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引用次数: 0
Synergistic management enhances ecosystem services through optimized specialty agro-pastoralism in the context of food security 在粮食安全的背景下,协同管理通过优化特色农牧业加强生态系统服务
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104600
Jiahui Jiang , Jian Hou , Chen Zeng , Haobo Feng , Zhenxing Xiong

Context

Clarifying the intrinsic mechanisms by which specialty agro-pastoralism (specialty crops, livestock husbandry, cash crops, and forest products) affect ecosystem services will contribute to enhancing the stability and functional redundancy of ecosystem services and meeting the demands of sustainable specialty agro-pastoralism development. However, the relationships among ecosystem services, and specialty agro-pastoralism remain unclear.

Objective

This study systematically analyzed the mechanisms by which the spatial composition, configuration, and interactions of specialty agro-pastoralism affect ecosystem services and their trade-offs/synergies.

Methods

This study took typical alpine canyon areas of Southwest China as case and revealed the spatial composition and configuration of specialty agro-pastoralism. The key ecosystem services (Carbon sequestration (CS), Food supply (FS), Water yield (WY), and Soil retention (SR)) were evaluated. The trade-offs, synergies, and spatial heterogeneity patterns between ecosystem services were identified. Furthermore, the underlying mechanisms by which interactions of specialty agro-pastoralism influence ecosystem services and their trade-offs/synergies were systematically explored.

Results and Conclusions

Specialty agro-pastoralism were predominantly distributed in the southern region, with higher density in the east than the west. Key components included widely distributed specialty crops (e.g., Hordeum vulgare, Fagopyrum tataricum), livestock husbandry (e.g., Bos grunniens, Sus scrofa domesticus), and cash crops (e.g., Ophiocordyceps sinensis, Camellia sinensis), while forest products (e.g., Juglans regia, Zanthoxylum bungeanum) were concentrated in the southern low mountain regions. Ecosystem service interactions showed dominant synergies (CS-WY, CS-SR, WY-SR) and notable trade-offs (CS-FS, FS-WY, FS-SR). Spatially, synergies clustered in less-disturbed western areas, while trade-offs concentrated in southern areas. Specialty agro-pastoralism as key regulators of ecosystem services, in which forest products and cash crops critically enhanced soil conservation. Interactions between forest products and cash crops mitigated spatial trade-offs by optimizing resource utilization, while interactions between livestock husbandry and forest products promoted spatial synergies through coordinated management of grassland and forest resources.

Significance

The findings provide scientific insights into the relationship between ecosystem services and specialty agro-pastoralism, as well as theoretical support for optimizing ecological agricultural layouts and sustainable development strategies.
明确特色农牧业(特色作物、畜牧、经济作物和林产品)影响生态系统服务的内在机制,有助于增强生态系统服务的稳定性和功能冗余性,满足特色农牧业可持续发展的需求。然而,生态系统服务与特色农牧业之间的关系尚不清楚。目的系统分析特色农牧空间构成、配置及其相互作用对生态系统服务的影响机制及其权衡/协同效应。方法以西南典型高寒峡谷地区为例,揭示其特色农牧业的空间构成与配置。评估了主要生态系统服务功能(固碳(CS)、食物供应(FS)、水量(WY)和土壤保持(SR))。确定了生态系统服务之间的权衡、协同效应和空间异质性格局。此外,系统地探讨了专业农牧相互作用影响生态系统服务及其权衡/协同效应的潜在机制。结果与结论特色农牧业以南部为主,东部密度高于西部。主要成分包括分布广泛的特色作物(如普通Hordeum vulgare, Fagopyrum tataricum),畜牧业(如bogronniens, scrofa domesticus)和经济作物(如Ophiocordyceps sinensis, Camellia sinensis),而林产品(如核桃,Zanthoxylum bungeanum)集中在南部低山区。生态系统服务交互表现出显著的协同效应(CS-WY、CS-SR、WY-SR)和显著的权衡效应(CS-FS、FS-WY、FS-SR)。从空间上看,协同效应集中在受干扰较少的西部地区,而权衡效应集中在南部地区。特色农牧业是生态系统服务的关键调节者,其中森林产品和经济作物对土壤保持起到关键作用。林产品与经济作物之间的相互作用通过优化资源利用来缓解空间权衡,而畜牧业与林产品之间的相互作用通过协调管理草原和森林资源来促进空间协同效应。意义研究结果为研究生态系统服务与特色农牧业的关系提供了科学依据,为优化生态农业布局和可持续发展战略提供了理论支持。
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引用次数: 0
Greenhouse gas emission characteristics of farmland in the Guanzhong region under varied water-nitrogen management measures based on the DNDC model 基于DNDC模型的关中地区不同水氮管理措施下农田温室气体排放特征
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104628
Siya Wang , Jiaxin Lu , Shikun Sun , Ruoqing Hu , Jiabei Li , Jie Pang , Yuxin Yang

Context

Irrigation and nitrogen application are essential agronomic practices for enhancing crop yields, yet they also represent potential levers for mitigating agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in cropping systems.

Objective

This study aimed to identify optimal water‑nitrogen management strategies that maximize grain yield while minimizing GHG emissions in winter wheat-summer maize rotations within the Guanzhong Plain.

Methods

The Denitrification-Decomposition (DNDC) model was rigorously calibrated and validated using empirical field datasets. Individual and synergistic effects of irrigation levels (spanning 0–120 % field capacity, FC) and nitrogen application rates (0–300 kg N ha−1) on GHG emissions were evaluated through systematic simulations of 88 distinct water‑nitrogen management scenarios.

Results and Conclusions

Maximum yields were achieved at 85 % FC irrigation coupled with 225 kg N ha−1 for winter wheat (8431 kg ha−1) and 85 % FC irrigation with 250 kg N ha−1 for summer maize (9806 kg ha−1), beyond which yields plateaued. Cumulative N2O emissions ranged from 0.07 to 0.75 kg N ha−1 (wheat) and 0.10–1.37 kg N ha−1 (maize). CO2 emissions initially increased with inputs before stabilizing at 3050 kg C ha−1 (wheat) and 2464 kg C ha−1 (maize) under optimal regimes. Precision management (85 % FC + crop-specific N) synchronizes yield optimization with GHG mitigation, achieving 18–22 % emission reduction relative to conventional practices while maintaining 95–97 % of maximum yield potential.

Significance

This work establishes a scientifically validated framework for climate-smart cereal production in semi-arid regions. The identified water‑nitrogen regimes (85 % FC + 225 kg N ha−1 wheat; 85 % FC + 250 kg N ha−1 maize) enable sustainable intensification by concurrently addressing food security and decarbonization goals in global cropping systems.
灌溉和施氮是提高作物产量的基本农艺措施,但它们也代表了减少种植系统中农业温室气体(GHG)排放的潜在杠杆。目的研究关中平原冬小麦-夏玉米轮作的最佳水氮管理策略,以实现粮食产量最大化和温室气体排放最小化。方法对反硝化分解(DNDC)模型进行了严格的标定,并利用现场经验数据进行了验证。通过系统模拟88种不同的水氮管理情景,评估了灌溉水平(0 - 120%田间容量)和氮肥施用量(0-300 kg N ha - 1)对温室气体排放的个体效应和协同效应。结果与结论85% FC灌溉配以225 kg N ha - 1的冬小麦产量最高(8431 kg ha - 1), 85% FC灌溉配以250 kg N ha - 1的夏玉米产量最高(9806 kg ha - 1),超过这一水平产量持平。N2O累积排放量为0.07 ~ 0.75 kg N ha - 1(小麦)和0.10 ~ 1.37 kg N ha - 1(玉米)。二氧化碳排放量最初随着投入的增加而增加,然后在最佳制度下稳定在3050千克碳公顷−1(小麦)和2464千克碳公顷−1(玉米)。精确管理(85% FC +作物特定氮)使产量优化与温室气体减排同步,相对于传统做法实现减排18 - 22%,同时保持最高产量潜力的95 - 97%。本研究为半干旱地区气候智能型谷物生产建立了一个经过科学验证的框架。确定的水氮制度(85% FC + 225公斤氮肥- 1小麦;85% FC + 250公斤氮肥- 1玉米)通过同时解决全球种植系统的粮食安全和脱碳目标,实现了可持续集约化。
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引用次数: 0
Export-attributed carbon footprint of cotton production in arid China: A life cycle and driver analysis 中国干旱地区棉花生产的出口碳足迹:生命周期和驱动因素分析
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104632
Jian Liu , Yu Zhang , Cun Chang , Shuai Wu , Wei Yan , Yonglong Han , Yonghui Wang , Xiaofei Ma
<div><h3>Context</h3><div>Cotton is a globally traded commodity with disproportionately large environmental costs. Although its land share is modest, input use and energy demand are high in arid irrigated systems. The Tarim River Basin (TRB) in Xinjiang, China—one of the country's principal cotton-producing regions—remains underrepresented in long-term, spatially explicit carbon accounting, particularly with respect to responsibilities embedded in international trade. An assessment that connects farm-level processes, export attribution, and driver diagnosis is needed to guide equitable and efficient decarbonization.</div></div><div><h3>Objective</h3><div>Quantify the carbon footprint of cotton production in the TRB on 1 km grids for 2000–2020; develop and apply a transparent export-attribution framework that assigns to the region an equitable share of emissions embedded in cotton trade from China; and isolate principal biophysical and socioeconomic drivers using ridge regression and structural equation modeling (SEM) to identify policy-sensitive levers for mitigation.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>We conducted a cradle-to-farm-gate life-cycle assessment (LCA) at a 1 km spatial resolution from 2000 to 2020. We compiled activity data and emission factors to derive product-, area-, and value-based indicators, including <span><math><mi>CF</mi><mo>_</mo><mi>Y</mi></math></span> (kg CO₂-eq·kg<sup>−1</sup>), <span><math><mi>CF</mi><mo>_</mo><mi>A</mi></math></span> (kg CO₂-eq·hm<sup>−2</sup>), and carbon economic efficiency (<span><math><mi>CEE</mi></math></span>; kg CO₂-eq·CNY<sup>−1</sup>; CNY denotes the Chinese yuan). A national-proportional export-attribution scheme was applied to allocate export-embedded carbon emissions to the TRB. Based on this allocation, trade-intensity metrics were calculated, including <span><math><mi>CF</mi><mo>_</mo><msub><mi>Y</mi><mi>export</mi></msub></math></span> and <span><math><msub><mi>CEE</mi><mi>export</mi></msub></math></span>. Drivers were quantified through ridge regression and a confirmatory SEM spanning land use, vegetation condition, topography, climate, and socioeconomic context; direct and indirect effects were decomposed. Uncertainty was examined via sensitivity tests on key activity data and emission factors.</div></div><div><h3>Results and Conclusions</h3><div>Total emissions more than doubled from 2000 to 2020. In contrast, the intensity indicators changed differently: <span><math><mi>CF</mi><mo>_</mo><mi>Y</mi></math></span> remained near 2.83 kg CO₂-eq·kg<sup>−1</sup>, <span><math><mi>CEE</mi></math></span> decreased from 0.25 to 0.14 kg CO₂-eq·CNY<sup>−1</sup>, and <span><math><mi>CF</mi><mo>_</mo><mi>A</mi></math></span> increased from about 3900 to 5200 kg CO₂-eq·hm<sup>−2</sup>, indicating increasing land-based emission intensity. Dominant sources were labor (34.4 %), electricity (23.8 %), and diesel (14.8 %), highlighting priorities to modernize labor structure and decarbonize irrigation
棉花是一种全球交易的商品,其环境成本高得不成比例。尽管其土地份额不大,但干旱灌溉系统的投入物使用和能源需求很高。中国新疆的塔里木河流域(TRB)是中国主要的棉花产区之一,但在长期的、空间明确的碳核算中,特别是在国际贸易中所包含的责任方面,其代表性仍然不足。需要进行一项将农场层面的过程、出口归因和驱动因素诊断联系起来的评估,以指导公平和有效的脱碳。目的量化2000-2020年内蒙古自治区棉花生产的碳足迹。制定并应用透明的出口归因框架,在中国棉花贸易中公平分配该地区的排放份额;并利用脊回归和结构方程模型(SEM)分离主要的生物物理和社会经济驱动因素,以确定政策敏感的缓解杠杆。方法2000 - 2020年在1 km空间分辨率下进行了从摇篮到农场的生命周期评价。我们收集了活动数据和排放因子,得出了基于产品、面积和价值的指标,包括CF_Y (kg CO₂-eq·kg - 1)、CF_A (kg CO₂-eq·hm - 2)和碳经济效率(CEE; kg CO₂-eq·CNY - 1; CNY表示人民币)。采用国家比例出口归因方案将出口隐含碳排放分配给TRB。基于这一分配,计算了贸易强度指标,包括CF_Yexport和CEEexport。通过山脊回归和验证性SEM对驱动因素进行量化,包括土地利用、植被条件、地形、气候和社会经济背景;对直接效应和间接效应进行了分解。通过对关键活动数据和排放因子的敏感性测试来检查不确定性。结果与结论从2000年到2020年,总排放量增加了一倍多。相比之下,强度指标发生了不同的变化:CF_Y保持在2.83 kg CO₂-eq·kg - 1附近,CEE从0.25 kg CO₂-eq·CNY - 1下降到0.14 kg CO₂-eq·CNY - 1, CF_A从约3900 kg CO₂-eq·hm - 2增加到5200 kg CO₂-eq·hm - 2,表明陆基排放强度增加。主要能源来源为劳动力(34.4%)、电力(23.8%)和柴油(14.8%),突出了劳动力结构现代化和灌溉能源脱碳的重点。针对亚洲目的地的出口归因排放量累计达到2.70 × 109千克二氧化碳当量,各市场单位出口强度存在很强的异质性。驱动因素分析表明,优化的土地利用和社会经济升级与较低的足迹相关,而在缺乏先进管理的情况下,植被活动和气候变率的增加可能会增加排放。通过整合网格化的LCA、可复制的出口归因协议和驱动因素建模,该框架确定了可操作的热点,分配了供应链上的责任,并确定了清洁灌溉能源、定向机械化和优化土地分配等杠杆,以实现干旱、出口导向型农业的快速、公平减排。
{"title":"Export-attributed carbon footprint of cotton production in arid China: A life cycle and driver analysis","authors":"Jian Liu ,&nbsp;Yu Zhang ,&nbsp;Cun Chang ,&nbsp;Shuai Wu ,&nbsp;Wei Yan ,&nbsp;Yonglong Han ,&nbsp;Yonghui Wang ,&nbsp;Xiaofei Ma","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104632","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104632","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Context&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;Cotton is a globally traded commodity with disproportionately large environmental costs. Although its land share is modest, input use and energy demand are high in arid irrigated systems. The Tarim River Basin (TRB) in Xinjiang, China—one of the country's principal cotton-producing regions—remains underrepresented in long-term, spatially explicit carbon accounting, particularly with respect to responsibilities embedded in international trade. An assessment that connects farm-level processes, export attribution, and driver diagnosis is needed to guide equitable and efficient decarbonization.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Objective&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;Quantify the carbon footprint of cotton production in the TRB on 1 km grids for 2000–2020; develop and apply a transparent export-attribution framework that assigns to the region an equitable share of emissions embedded in cotton trade from China; and isolate principal biophysical and socioeconomic drivers using ridge regression and structural equation modeling (SEM) to identify policy-sensitive levers for mitigation.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Methods&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;We conducted a cradle-to-farm-gate life-cycle assessment (LCA) at a 1 km spatial resolution from 2000 to 2020. We compiled activity data and emission factors to derive product-, area-, and value-based indicators, including &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mi&gt;CF&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mo&gt;_&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;mi&gt;Y&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt; (kg CO₂-eq·kg&lt;sup&gt;−1&lt;/sup&gt;), &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mi&gt;CF&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mo&gt;_&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;mi&gt;A&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt; (kg CO₂-eq·hm&lt;sup&gt;−2&lt;/sup&gt;), and carbon economic efficiency (&lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mi&gt;CEE&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt;; kg CO₂-eq·CNY&lt;sup&gt;−1&lt;/sup&gt;; CNY denotes the Chinese yuan). A national-proportional export-attribution scheme was applied to allocate export-embedded carbon emissions to the TRB. Based on this allocation, trade-intensity metrics were calculated, including &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mi&gt;CF&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mo&gt;_&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;msub&gt;&lt;mi&gt;Y&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mi&gt;export&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/msub&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt; and &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;msub&gt;&lt;mi&gt;CEE&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mi&gt;export&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/msub&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt;. Drivers were quantified through ridge regression and a confirmatory SEM spanning land use, vegetation condition, topography, climate, and socioeconomic context; direct and indirect effects were decomposed. Uncertainty was examined via sensitivity tests on key activity data and emission factors.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Results and Conclusions&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;Total emissions more than doubled from 2000 to 2020. In contrast, the intensity indicators changed differently: &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mi&gt;CF&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mo&gt;_&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;mi&gt;Y&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt; remained near 2.83 kg CO₂-eq·kg&lt;sup&gt;−1&lt;/sup&gt;, &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mi&gt;CEE&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt; decreased from 0.25 to 0.14 kg CO₂-eq·CNY&lt;sup&gt;−1&lt;/sup&gt;, and &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mi&gt;CF&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mo&gt;_&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;mi&gt;A&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt; increased from about 3900 to 5200 kg CO₂-eq·hm&lt;sup&gt;−2&lt;/sup&gt;, indicating increasing land-based emission intensity. Dominant sources were labor (34.4 %), electricity (23.8 %), and diesel (14.8 %), highlighting priorities to modernize labor structure and decarbonize irrigation","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"233 ","pages":"Article 104632"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145880386","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The economic irrationality of closing the yield gap in rainfed maize production – An extensification v intensification assessment in Dodoma, Tanzania 缩小雨养玉米产量差距的经济不合理性——坦桑尼亚Dodoma的推广与集约化评估
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2026.104656
Gerardo E. van Halsema, Maria Christoforidou

Context

Current trends in SSA show a rapid expansion of the area in rainfed cereal production with persistent low yields. This, despite the long-established efforts to close the yield gap in SSA and promote high(er) yielding agricultural intensification (re. Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa).

Objective

In this paper, we show why the extensification of low yielding rainfed agriculture in SSA, as reported, persists and forms a sensible strategy to pursue for small holders – both from an agronomic and economic point of view.

Methods

We do this by presenting the comparative modelling analysis for the low yield extensification and high yield intensification strategy for rainfed maize cultivation in Dodoma, Tanzania. The contrasting strategies were modelled and assessed using crop growth modelling (AquaCrop), 9 years of climatic data and economic data for costs and revenues. Data were obtained from online sources and past studies.

Results & conclusions

Results show that low yield extensification under rainfed conditions is sensible, due to: (i) the staggering of planting dates that provide a better climate resilience for production; and (ii) a higher economic profitability, especially in the long term. Our results show that the economic risks (due to crop failure) of the high yielding intensification strategy become insurmountable for low-income households when both climate volatility and prices of chemical fertilisers increase.

Significance

Expanding agricultural rainfed area under low input, low cost, and low yield (as reported by FAO) is, as supported by our modelling results, a sensible risk management strategy to pursue for low-income households, that helps to explain its continuing practice. Finally, we will argue that in an era of increasing climatic and financial volatility affecting agricultural production, we will need to reorient our agricultural production systems from yield maximisation to risk optimisation. To halt the continuing expansion of rainfed agriculture, at the expense of nature, the focus will have to shift towards increasing and stabilising income for poor household under volatile climatic conditions. Our methods can be applied to assess the climatic risks of rainfed agriculture regions by determining the cut-off ratio at which extensification outperforms intensification.
背景目前的趋势表明,旱作谷物生产面积迅速扩大,但持续低产量。尽管长期以来一直在努力缩小SSA的产量差距,促进高产农业集约化(如非洲绿色革命联盟)。在本文中,我们从农艺学和经济学的角度,展示了为什么在SSA推广低产旱作农业,正如报道的那样,坚持不懈,并形成了一个明智的策略,以追求小农。方法通过对坦桑尼亚Dodoma旱作玉米种植的低产推广和高产强化策略进行比较模型分析。使用作物生长模型(AquaCrop)、9年的气候数据和成本和收入的经济数据对对比策略进行建模和评估。数据来自在线资源和过去的研究。结果和结论结果表明,在旱作条件下,低产推广是合理的,因为:(1)错开的种植日期为生产提供了更好的气候适应能力;(二)较高的经济盈利能力,特别是长期盈利能力。我们的研究结果表明,当气候波动和化肥价格上升时,高产量集约化策略的经济风险(由于作物歉收)对低收入家庭来说是无法克服的。正如我们的建模结果所支持的那样,在低投入、低成本和低产量(如粮农组织所报告的)的情况下扩大农业雨养面积是低收入家庭追求的一种明智的风险管理策略,这有助于解释其持续实践。最后,我们认为,在气候和金融波动日益影响农业生产的时代,我们需要重新调整农业生产系统,从产量最大化转向风险优化。为了制止以牺牲自然为代价的雨养农业的持续扩张,必须将重点转向增加和稳定气候条件不稳定的贫困家庭的收入。我们的方法可以通过确定放养优于集约化的临界值来评估雨养农业区的气候风险。
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引用次数: 0
Cropland use intensity, stability, and crop transition dynamics in the Songhua River Basin (2000–2024): Implications for sustainable land use and food security 2000-2024年松花江流域耕地利用强度、稳定性和作物转型动态:对土地可持续利用和粮食安全的影响
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2026.104652
Lai Gan , Xiao Xiao , Yishan Li , Qiyuan Hu , Yang Lan , Yang Xie , Fei Lun

CONTEXT

The Songhua River Basin (SRB), a vital grain base within the global black soil belt, faces unquantified instability from agricultural intensification and urbanization. However, existing assessments fail to integrate long-term spatial cropland use intensity, stability, and fine-scale crop management transitions, limiting our understanding of agricultural resilience.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to quantify spatiotemporal dynamics and reveal the coupling mechanism between management practices and stability in the SRB. Specifically, we sought to: (1) characterize the spatiotemporal cropland dynamics; (2) unpack the nexus of cropland use intensity, stability and crop-type transitions; and (3) identify the driving forces and inform policy.

METHODS

To achieve these objectives, we developed an integrated framework to jointly assess cropland use intensity (CUI), cropland stability (CS), and crop-type transition pathways. We defined CUI as cumulative cultivated years and CS as a new index quantifying the persistence of cultivation within a pixel's dynamic land-use window (ratio of actual to potential years). Leveraging 25 years (2000–2024) of time-series Landsat imagery, we employed a Random Forest classifier to generate annual 30-m maps of cropland and major crops (maize, rice, soybean), achieving an overall accuracy >90% and Kappa >0.85.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis revealed a landscape of high commitment but fragile trade-offs. Over 55% of croplands exhibited very high use intensity (>20 years), with 60% classified as Highly Stable (HS) or Fully Stable (FS), concentrated in the fertile midstream and downstream plains. However, a severe quality-quantity trade-off was identified: while 100.4 × 103 km2 of new land was reclaimed, 40% of this expansion remained Unstable (US), largely confined to ecologically marginal zones. Concurrently, 9.8 × 103 km2 of high-quality, stable cropland was irreversibly lost to urban expansion. Crucially, we established a strong non-linear coupling between stability and management: high-frequency crop-type transitions (i.e., rotation) were strictly associated with resilient, high-stability zones, whereas low-frequency patterns characterized the extremes of either monoculture or instability.

SIGNIFICANCE

This study provides a novel, integrated assessment moving beyond conventional area-based metrics. The findings offer a clear policy mandate for the SRB and similar grain bases: sustainable food security requires a paradigm shift from maintaining “cropland area balance” to managing “cropland stability,” prioritizing strict zoning to protect stable cropland and incentivizing sustainable rotation systems.
松花江流域作为全球黑土带重要的粮食基地,面临着农业集约化和城市化带来的不可量化的不稳定性。然而,现有的评估未能整合长期的空间耕地利用强度、稳定性和精细尺度的作物管理转型,限制了我们对农业弹性的理解。目的量化SRB管理实践与稳定性的时空动态关系,揭示SRB管理实践与稳定性的耦合机制。具体而言,我们试图:(1)描述耕地时空动态特征;(2)揭示了耕地利用强度、稳定性与作物类型转换之间的关系;(3)识别驱动因素并为政策提供信息。为了实现这些目标,我们开发了一个综合框架来联合评估耕地利用强度(CUI)、耕地稳定性(CS)和作物类型转换路径。我们将CUI定义为累积耕作年数,将CS定义为量化在一个像元动态土地利用窗口内耕作持续性的新指标(实际与潜在年数之比)。利用25年(2000-2024)的时间序列Landsat图像,我们使用随机森林分类器生成每年30米的农田和主要作物(玉米、水稻、大豆)地图,总体精度达到90%,Kappa为0.85。结果与结论我们的分析揭示了高承诺但脆弱权衡的格局。超过55%的农田表现出非常高的利用强度(>;20年),60%的农田被划分为高度稳定(HS)或完全稳定(FS),集中在肥沃的中下游平原。然而,发现了严重的质量-数量权衡:虽然100.4 × 103 km2的新土地被填海,但40%的扩张仍然不稳定(US),主要局限于生态边缘地带。同时,9.8 × 103 km2的优质稳定耕地因城市扩张而不可逆转地消失。至关重要的是,我们在稳定性和管理之间建立了强烈的非线性耦合:高频率的作物类型转换(即轮作)与有弹性的高稳定性区密切相关,而低频率模式的特征是极端的单一栽培或不稳定。意义:本研究提供了一种新颖的、综合的评估方法,超越了传统的基于区域的指标。这些发现为SRB和类似的粮食基地提供了明确的政策授权:可持续粮食安全需要从维持“耕地面积平衡”到管理“耕地稳定”的范式转变,优先考虑严格分区以保护稳定的耕地,并激励可持续的轮作制度。
{"title":"Cropland use intensity, stability, and crop transition dynamics in the Songhua River Basin (2000–2024): Implications for sustainable land use and food security","authors":"Lai Gan ,&nbsp;Xiao Xiao ,&nbsp;Yishan Li ,&nbsp;Qiyuan Hu ,&nbsp;Yang Lan ,&nbsp;Yang Xie ,&nbsp;Fei Lun","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2026.104652","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2026.104652","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>CONTEXT</h3><div>The Songhua River Basin (SRB), a vital grain base within the global black soil belt, faces unquantified instability from agricultural intensification and urbanization. However, existing assessments fail to integrate long-term spatial cropland use intensity, stability, and fine-scale crop management transitions, limiting our understanding of agricultural resilience.</div></div><div><h3>OBJECTIVE</h3><div>This study aims to quantify spatiotemporal dynamics and reveal the coupling mechanism between management practices and stability in the SRB. Specifically, we sought to: (1) characterize the spatiotemporal cropland dynamics; (2) unpack the nexus of cropland use intensity, stability and crop-type transitions; and (3) identify the driving forces and inform policy.</div></div><div><h3>METHODS</h3><div>To achieve these objectives, we developed an integrated framework to jointly assess cropland use intensity (CUI), cropland stability (CS), and crop-type transition pathways. We defined CUI as cumulative cultivated years and CS as a new index quantifying the persistence of cultivation within a pixel's dynamic land-use window (ratio of actual to potential years). Leveraging 25 years (2000–2024) of time-series Landsat imagery, we employed a Random Forest classifier to generate annual 30-m maps of cropland and major crops (maize, rice, soybean), achieving an overall accuracy &gt;90% and Kappa &gt;0.85.</div></div><div><h3>RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS</h3><div>Our analysis revealed a landscape of high commitment but fragile trade-offs. Over 55% of croplands exhibited very high use intensity (&gt;20 years), with 60% classified as Highly Stable (HS) or Fully Stable (FS), concentrated in the fertile midstream and downstream plains. However, a severe quality-quantity trade-off was identified: while 100.4 × 10<sup>3</sup> km<sup>2</sup> of new land was reclaimed, 40% of this expansion remained Unstable (US), largely confined to ecologically marginal zones. Concurrently, 9.8 × 10<sup>3</sup> km<sup>2</sup> of high-quality, stable cropland was irreversibly lost to urban expansion. Crucially, we established a strong non-linear coupling between stability and management: high-frequency crop-type transitions (i.e., rotation) were strictly associated with resilient, high-stability zones, whereas low-frequency patterns characterized the extremes of either monoculture or instability.</div></div><div><h3>SIGNIFICANCE</h3><div>This study provides a novel, integrated assessment moving beyond conventional area-based metrics. The findings offer a clear policy mandate for the SRB and similar grain bases: sustainable food security requires a paradigm shift from maintaining “cropland area balance” to managing “cropland stability,” prioritizing strict zoning to protect stable cropland and incentivizing sustainable rotation systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"233 ","pages":"Article 104652"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146073691","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Exploring entry points to circularity in food production from a farming system perspective 从农业系统的角度探索粮食生产循环的切入点
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104625
Jana Firse , Veera Naukkarinen , Marjaana Toivonen , Carl Timler , Jeroen Groot , Rogier Schulte , Kari Koppelmäki

Background

Redesigning food systems for circularity has been proposed as a strategy to reduce environmental impacts, reliance on external inputs, and to support a shift towards healthy diets. Finland's specialised and input-reliant food production systems combined with efforts to curb agricultural emissions and transition to more plant-based diets motivate exploration of future food system scenarios.

Aims

We explored two entry points to circular food production, localised food systems and the production of plant-based foods, and analysed their potential to enhance the environmental performance of Finnish farms. We further aimed to complement larger scale studies on circularity with a farm level perspective that accounts for heterogeneity and the farmers' perspective.

Methods

We generated alternative farm configurations for eight specialised arable farms in Finland. This explorative modelling study was based on three scenarios: (i) farm development based on the farmers' preferences, (ii) a localised farming system increasing nutrient and biomass cycling, (iii) maximising the production of plant-based foods.

Results

Localised and plant-based scenarios resulted in distinctly different production systems. While scenario (ii) reduced food production but lowered environmental impacts and input reliance, scenario (iii) led to highest reductions of greenhouse gas emissions and increases in overall food production. Farmer-led redesigns (i) showed large variability in perceived options for change reflecting farm-specific lock-ins and opportunities.

Conclusions

Our results underline the role of supporting objectives, such as self-sufficiency or dietary change in designing circular food systems. The heterogeneity across farms calls for a context-specific approach in supporting farmers to deliver on environmental goals.
已提出重新设计粮食系统以实现循环,作为减少对环境影响、对外部投入的依赖和支持向健康饮食转变的一种战略。芬兰的专业化和依赖投入的粮食生产系统,加上遏制农业排放和向更多植物性饮食过渡的努力,激发了对未来粮食系统情景的探索。我们探索了循环食品生产的两个切入点,本地化食品系统和植物性食品生产,并分析了它们提高芬兰农场环境绩效的潜力。我们进一步的目标是用农场层面的视角来补充更大规模的循环研究,这一视角考虑了异质性和农民的视角。方法对芬兰的8个专业耕地农场进行了不同的农场配置。这项探索性建模研究基于三种情景:(i)基于农民偏好的农场发展,(ii)增加养分和生物质循环的本地化农业系统,(iii)最大限度地提高植物性食品的生产。结果本地化和基于植物的情景导致了明显不同的生产系统。虽然情景(二)减少了粮食生产,但降低了环境影响和对投入的依赖,但情景(三)导致温室气体排放量减少最多,粮食总产量增加最多。农民主导的重新设计(i)显示,在可感知的变化选择方面存在很大差异,反映了特定农场的锁定和机会。结论研究结果强调了自给自足或饮食改变等支持目标在设计循环食品系统中的作用。农场之间的异质性要求在支持农民实现环境目标方面采取具体的方法。
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引用次数: 0
Participatory modelling for agroecological transitions: Engaging stakeholders in transformative pathways 农业生态转型的参与式建模:让利益相关者参与变革途径
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2026.104634
A. Bourceret , A. Barbe , C. Robert

CONTEXT

The worldwide use of synthetic pesticides has been rising for decades. Agroecology offers a promising alternative, but its adoption requires support from public policy and multi-scale institutional and social levers. Recent policy approaches integrate levers promoting collective and territorial collaboration, recognizing the local scale as crucial for agroecological transitions. These levers involve mobilizing territorial stakeholders and implementing context-specific levers.

OBJECTIVE

Our objective is to better understand territorial levers that support agroecological transformation and associated practice change dynamics. We engaged with stakeholders using a generic territorial socio-ecological model to identify local levers and potential agroecological transition pathways.

METHODS

In the Barrois region (Eastern France), a participatory modelling initiative involved stakeholders from a farming territory aiming to reduce pesticide use. Three participatory workshops were organized to: (1) identify context-relevant levers; (2) calibrate the model based on the territory's current state; and (3) explore agricultural trajectories and supporting levers.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

The use of the model highlights the dynamic and multi-factor nature of transitions. The workshops fostered rich dialogue and proposals, playing a central role in co-construction. Participants collectively identified levers such as awareness-raising, training initiatives, new stakeholder networks, and evolving advisory services. However, these levers vary depending on farmers' sensitivities and production types. Discussions emphasized the importance of involving not only farmers but also consumers and supply chains to drive change.

SIGNIFICANCE

This participatory approach produced a more realistic model and created learning opportunities for all participants (researchers and agricultural stakeholders), despite challenges like communicating complex theoretical concepts and vocabulary.
几十年来,世界范围内合成农药的使用量一直在上升。生态农业提供了一个很有希望的替代方案,但它的采用需要公共政策以及多尺度机构和社会杠杆的支持。最近的政策方法综合了促进集体和地区合作的手段,认识到地方规模对农业生态转型至关重要。这些杠杆包括动员地区利益相关者和实施针对具体情况的杠杆。我们的目标是更好地了解支持农业生态转型和相关实践变化动态的地域杠杆。我们使用一个通用的地域社会生态模型与利益相关者接触,以确定当地的杠杆和潜在的农业生态转型途径。方法在巴罗斯地区(法国东部),一项参与式建模倡议涉及来自农业地区的利益相关者,旨在减少农药使用。组织了三个参与性讲习班,以:(1)确定与环境相关的杠杆;(2)根据领土的现状对模型进行校准;(3)探索农业发展轨迹和支撑杠杆。结果与结论该模型的使用突出了过渡的动态性和多因素性。讲习班促进了丰富的对话和建议,在共建中发挥了核心作用。与会者共同确定了诸如提高认识、培训计划、新的利益相关者网络和不断发展的咨询服务等杠杆。然而,这些杠杆因农民的敏感性和生产类型而异。讨论强调了让农民、消费者和供应链参与推动变革的重要性。这种参与式方法产生了一个更现实的模型,并为所有参与者(研究人员和农业利益相关者)创造了学习机会,尽管存在沟通复杂理论概念和词汇等挑战。
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引用次数: 0
Farmer's own decisions outweigh management strategies in reducing pesticide use in apple orchards 在减少苹果园农药使用方面,农民自己的决定比管理策略更重要
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104609
Isis Poinas , Bertrand Gauffre , Julien Papaïx , Manon Denis , Xavier Said , Claire Lavigne

CONTEXT

Efforts to reduce pesticide use, driven by concerns over their harmful effects on biodiversity and human health, have promoted alternative agricultural practices. How the farmers combine these practices in conjunction with field features, and the impact of these combinations on pesticide use remains poorly understood.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to identify orchard management strategies associated with reduced insecticide and fungicide use in apple orchards in south-eastern France. We further examined whether reductions in chemical pesticide use increased reliance on biopesticides, and evaluated the relative contributions of advisory organizations and farmers' identity to pesticide applications.

METHODS

We collected data from 171 orchards managed by 51 farmers, who provided treatment schedules for 2021–2023. Treatment frequency indices were calculated by pesticide category (chemical fungicides, biocontrol insecticides…), further broken down by product family (copper, virus…), target pest and specificity. We used principal component analyses (PCAs) to identify major patterns in farmer's management strategies, combining both practices (Alt'Carpo netting, irrigation type…) and orchard features (row orientation, length of adjacent hedges…). The effects of these management strategies on variation in pesticide use were then investigated using linear mixed models that included the PCA coordinates of orchards as explanatory variables. Additional models were run to assess the effects of individual practices.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

Pesticide use was driven primarily by farmer identity, with advisory organizations and management strategies exerting limited influence. No trade-off was observed between chemical pesticides and biopesticides: orchards sprayed with more chemical pesticides were also sprayed with more biopesticides. The absence of dominant strategies suggests considerable flexibility in orchard management. While some management strategies were associated with lower pesticide use, these effects were mainly attributable to a few single practices. Effective low-pesticide strategies included Alt'Carpo netting, an early variety, a windbreak hedge (all associated with reduced insecticide use), and flood irrigation without sprinklers (associated with reduced fungicide use). Overall, orchards with low pesticide use did not suffer higher pest or disease pressure.

SIGNIFICANCE

This study highlights significant potential for reducing pesticides in apple orchards, emphasizing the need for a deeper understanding of farmers' decision-making, regarding both pesticide applications and practices implemented at orchard establishment. Future research should further investigate these management strategies, with particular attention to their labor, market requirements and economic viability.
由于担心农药对生物多样性和人类健康的有害影响,减少农药使用的努力促进了替代农业做法。农民如何结合田间特点将这些做法结合起来,以及这些组合对农药使用的影响仍然知之甚少。目的:本研究旨在确定与减少法国东南部苹果园杀虫剂和杀菌剂使用相关的果园管理策略。我们进一步研究了化学农药使用的减少是否会增加对生物农药的依赖,并评估了咨询组织和农民身份对农药使用的相对贡献。方法收集51名农民管理的171个果园的数据,这些农民提供了2021-2023年的处理计划。按农药类别(化学杀菌剂、生物防治杀虫剂等)计算处理频率指数,并进一步按产品族(铜、病毒等)、目标害虫和特异性进行分解。我们使用主成分分析(pca)来确定农民管理策略的主要模式,结合两种做法(Alt'Carpo网,灌溉类型……)和果园特征(行方向,相邻树篱的长度……)。采用线性混合模型,以果园主成分分析坐标为解释变量,研究了这些管理策略对农药使用变化的影响。另外还运行了一些模型来评估个别做法的影响。结果与结论农药使用主要受农民身份驱动,咨询机构和管理策略的影响有限。化学农药和生物农药之间没有权衡:喷洒更多化学农药的果园也喷洒了更多生物农药。主导战略的缺失表明果园管理具有相当大的灵活性。虽然一些管理策略与减少农药使用有关,但这些影响主要归因于少数单一做法。有效的低农药策略包括:altcarpo网、早期品种、防风林树篱(所有这些都与减少杀虫剂的使用有关)和无喷灌装置的洪水灌溉(与减少杀菌剂的使用有关)。总体而言,农药用量低的果园没有遭受更高的病虫害压力。这项研究强调了在苹果园中减少农药的巨大潜力,强调需要更深入地了解农民的决策,包括农药的使用和果园建设的实践。未来的研究应进一步调查这些管理策略,特别注意其劳动力、市场需求和经济可行性。
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引用次数: 0
Incorporating multifunctional value chain actors' varietal trait preferences in sweetpotato breeding programs: A pathway towards inclusive innovation 将多功能价值链参与者的品种性状偏好纳入甘薯育种计划:一条包容性创新之路
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104610
Julius Juma Okello , Sylvester Okoth Ojwang , David Jakinda Otieno , Robert O.M. Mwanga , Benard Yada , Hugo Campos , Simon Heck
<div><h3>CONTEXT</h3><div>Conventional breeding programs have hitherto been farmer-centric, prioritizing improvement of agronomic traits while neglecting trait preferences of other value chain actors. The supply-side focus may lead to low adoption of new varieties and food insecurity. Inclusive breeding is vital for meeting diverse customer needs.</div></div><div><h3>OBJECTIVE</h3><div>This study characterizes the multifunctional roles of sweetpotato actors and systematically assesses differences in varietal trait preferences among actors across the entire sweetpotato value chain in Uganda. It is premised on the CGIAR Excellence in Breeding platform's guide to inclusive demand-driven breeding that espouses the need to involve a broad range of stakeholders in breeding program design, hence innovation development. It provides useful insights on varietal trait preferences and needs of actors that are essential to produce future fit-for-purpose market preferred innovations.</div></div><div><h3>METHODS</h3><div>The study used a sequential mixed methods approach involving, first, systematic value chain-wide multidisciplinary consultations to elicit preferred sweetpotato traits. Second, collection of quantitative survey data from 1333 stakeholders identified primarily as producers (992), seed multipliers (68), processors (18), traders (97), and consumers (158). Third, a rigorous quantitative analysis to examine drivers of and trade-offs in varietal trait preferences by actor category.</div></div><div><h3>RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS</h3><div>The findings demonstrate the multifunctional roles of the actors and their varying trait preferences across the value chain. Actors with singular roles prioritize traits based on their immediate needs and commercial interests while those with joint roles exhibit a broader range of trait preferences. However, actors in both production and trading/consumption roles seek a balance between agronomic and quality traits, blending commercial and personal preferences. Regression analysis finds a higher preference for quality traits than agronomic traits as one moves downstream from producers to consumers. Mealiness is consistently preferred over agronomic and other quality traits. Also, overall, women have a balanced preference for both categories of traits.</div></div><div><h3>SIGNIFICANCE</h3><div>The study demonstrates a rigorous participatory research process for eliciting strategic information for decision-making in breeding. It supports the need for systematic market intelligence in crop breeding systems to make them more pluralistic and responsive to evolving trait preferences across the value chain. Embracing multi-actor preferences with fit-for-purpose crop breeding innovations/products can foster uptake of the new varieties and benefit all value chain actors once the mix of trait preferences is fully accounted for in breeding programs and necessary efforts are put in place to ensure the new varieties are successful.</d
迄今为止,传统育种计划一直以农民为中心,优先考虑农艺性状的改善,而忽视了其他价值链参与者的性状偏好。对供给侧的关注可能导致新品种采用率低和粮食不安全。包容性育种对于满足多样化的客户需求至关重要。目的:本研究描述了甘薯参与者的多功能角色,并系统地评估了乌干达整个甘薯价值链中参与者之间品种性状偏好的差异。它以CGIAR卓越育种平台的包容性需求驱动育种指南为前提,该指南支持在育种计划设计中让广泛的利益相关者参与,从而实现创新发展。它提供了关于行动者的各种特征偏好和需求的有用见解,这些对产生未来适合目的的市场偏好创新至关重要。方法本研究采用顺序混合方法,包括:首先,系统的价值链范围内的多学科咨询,以获得首选甘薯性状。其次,收集了来自1333个利益相关者的定量调查数据,这些利益相关者主要是生产者(992)、种子倍增者(68)、加工者(18)、贸易商(97)和消费者(158)。第三,一个严格的定量分析,以检查驱动因素和权衡的品种特征偏好的演员类别。结果与结论研究结果表明,在整个价值链中,参与者的多功能角色及其不同的特质偏好。拥有单一角色的演员根据他们的直接需求和商业利益来优先考虑特征,而拥有多个角色的演员则表现出更广泛的特征偏好。然而,生产和贸易/消费角色的参与者寻求农艺和质量特征之间的平衡,混合商业和个人偏好。回归分析发现,从生产者到消费者,对品质性状的偏好高于农艺性状。在农艺性状和其他品质性状中,肉质一直是首选。此外,总体而言,女性对这两类特质的偏好是平衡的。意义:该研究展示了一个严谨的参与式研究过程,可以为育种决策提供战略信息。它支持在作物育种系统中需要系统的市场情报,使其更加多元化,并对整个价值链中不断变化的性状偏好作出反应。采用多因素偏好和适合用途的作物育种创新/产品可以促进新品种的吸收,一旦在育种计划中充分考虑到性状偏好的混合,并采取必要的措施确保新品种成功,就可以使所有价值链参与者受益。
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引用次数: 0
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Agricultural Systems
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