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The influence of market access on grain legume adoption and intensity in African small-holder households 市场准入对非洲小农家庭豆类采用率和种植强度的影响
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2026.104647
Andrew P. Barnes , James Hammond , Tarirai Muoni , Alan Duncan

Context

Grain legumes have been promoted to support nutrition, soil quality and income growth. However, uptake is generally low across African smallholders and a number of studies have identified lack of market access for legumes as a main constraint.

Objective

The study employs a cross-sectional dataset of 20,218 smallholder households across 10 African countries to explore the level of legume intensity and the characteristics and determinants of adoptionl.

Methods

An indicator of grain legume intensity is derived on individual plot areas. To accommodate both the high amounts of non-adoption and the differences in the distribution of intensity observed by country we employ a zero-inflated beta regression.

Results and conclusions

There is little diversity in grain legume species planted, though Kenya has the most diversity in legumes grown. Mean legume cultivation intensity ranges from 8% of total cropping area to over 25% in Zambia and Ethiopia. The influence of market access for legumes is a strong and significant predictor of intensity. Conversely, we find the presence of markets for cash crops reduces the incentive to adopt legumes.

Significance

Development strategies should combine household-level interventions with broader market-oriented approaches, as improving legume market access is essential for scaling legume production and enhancing food security, income diversification, and ecological resilience across the region. By analysing a large sample of households across diverse agro-ecological zones, we provide generalizable evidence that complements localized studies. Estimating the decision to both cultivate and intensify legumes within the same model reveals a duality that emphasizes the need for targeted interventions to strengthen legume markets.
豆类作物已得到推广,以支持营养、土壤质量和收入增长。然而,非洲小农的吸收程度普遍较低,一些研究已经确定豆类缺乏市场准入是一个主要制约因素。目的:本研究采用了来自10个非洲国家的20,218个小农家庭的横截面数据集,以探索豆类种植强度水平以及采用豆类的特征和决定因素。方法以单地块面积为单位,推导籽粒豆科作物强度指标。为了适应大量的未采用和不同国家观察到的强度分布的差异,我们采用了零膨胀的beta回归。结果与结论肯尼亚种植的豆科植物种类多样性最高,但种植的籽粒豆科植物种类多样性较低。在赞比亚和埃塞俄比亚,豆科作物的平均种植强度占总种植面积的8%到25%以上。豆科植物市场准入的影响是强度的重要预测因子。相反,我们发现经济作物市场的存在降低了采用豆科作物的动机。发展战略应将家庭层面的干预措施与更广泛的市场导向方法结合起来,因为改善豆类市场准入对于扩大豆类生产规模、加强整个地区的粮食安全、收入多样化和生态复原力至关重要。通过分析不同农业生态区的大量家庭样本,我们提供了可概括的证据,补充了局部研究。在同一模型中对种植和强化豆科作物的决策进行估算,揭示了一种双重性,强调需要有针对性的干预措施来加强豆科作物市场。
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引用次数: 0
Synergistic optimization of field management measures for yield increase and emission reduction of Panax notoginseng based on DNDC model and NSGA-III 基于DNDC模型和NSGA-III的三七增产减排田间管理措施协同优化
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2026.104650
Qiliang Yang , Liuhui Mo , Wentao Zhang , Ling Yang , Chunhao Cao , Na Li
<div><h3>CONTEXT</h3><div><em>Panax Notoginseng</em> is a perennial herbaceous plant belonging to the Panax genus in the Araliaceae family. It has the core effects of promoting blood circulation, removing blood stasis, stopping bleeding, and reducing swelling, which is known as “gold cannot be exchanged” due to its unique medicinal value. At present, there were widespread problems of yield decline and environmental effects caused by improper management measures such as chemical fertilizer application, irrigation, and tillage in the production process of <em>Panax notoginseng</em>.</div></div><div><h3>OBJECTIVE</h3><div>Therefore, this study constructed the EFAST-DNDC-NSGA-III collaborative framework to optimize the field planting management measures of <em>Panax notoginseng</em> and realize sustainable development of <em>Panax notoginseng</em> with increased yield and reduced emissions.</div></div><div><h3>METHODS</h3><div>The crop varieties genetic parameters and field management parameters sensitive to <em>Panax notoginseng</em> yield and greenhouse gas emissions in the DNDC model were analyzed by the extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (EFAST) method. The applicability of DNDC model to <em>Panax notoginseng</em> was calibrated and validated by adjusting the sensitive crop varieties genetic parameters. Finally, based on the NSGA-III multi-objective optimization algorithm, the appropriate field management measures to promote increased production and reduced emissions of <em>Panax notoginseng</em> were explored.</div><div>RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS</div><div>The results identified that water demand, root carbon‑nitrogen ratio, grain carbon‑nitrogen ratio, leaf carbon‑nitrogen ratio, and nitrogen fixation coefficient were the main sensitivity parameters affecting <em>Panax notoginseng</em> yield. It was found that the DNDC model had good applicability to <em>Panax notoginseng</em> (<em>d</em> = 0.89, <em>NRMSE</em> = 0.16) by adjusting the sensitivity parameters to calibrate and verify the DNDC model. Further sensitivity analysis of field management measures revealed that urea application rate, irrigation amount, fertilization depth, tillage depth, and nitrification inhibitor efficiency were key field management measures affecting the yield and environmental emissions (CO<sub>2</sub> and N<sub>2</sub>O) of <em>Panax notoginseng</em>. On this basis, the NSGA-III multi-objective optimization algorithm was applied to perform Pareto optimization on these five key management practices, obtaining an optimal solution set that balances yield maximization with environmental emission minimization. The results showed that the optimized scheme with irrigation amount of 16–23 mm, urea application amount of 160–210 kg N·ha<sup>−1</sup>, fertilization depth of 10–25 cm, plowing depth of 5–10 cm, and nitrification inhibitor efficiency of 30–50% could maintain the yield per unit area of <em>Panax notoginseng</em> or increase by 50%, while CO<sub>2</sub> and N
三七是五加科三七属的多年生草本植物。它具有活血化瘀、止血消肿的核心功效,因其独特的药用价值被誉为“黄金不可兑换”。目前,三七在生产过程中普遍存在因施肥、灌溉、耕作等管理措施不当导致产量下降和环境影响等问题。目的为此,本研究构建EFAST-DNDC-NSGA-III协同框架,优化三七田间种植管理措施,实现三七增产减排的可持续发展。方法采用扩展傅立叶振幅敏感性检验(EFAST)方法,对DNDC模型中对三七产量和温室气体排放敏感的作物品种遗传参数和田间管理参数进行分析。通过调整敏感作物品种遗传参数,对DNDC模型在三七上的适用性进行了标定和验证。最后,基于NSGA-III多目标优化算法,探讨了促进三七增产减排的田间管理措施。结果与结论水分需要量、根系碳氮比、籽粒碳氮比、叶片碳氮比和固氮系数是影响三七产量的主要敏感性参数。通过调整灵敏度参数对DNDC模型进行校准和验证,发现DNDC模型对三七具有较好的适用性(d = 0.89, NRMSE = 0.16)。进一步的田间管理措施敏感性分析表明,尿素施用量、灌水量、施肥深度、耕作深度和硝化抑制剂效率是影响三七产量和环境排放(CO2和N2O)的关键田间管理措施。在此基础上,应用NSGA-III多目标优化算法对这5个关键管理实践进行Pareto优化,得到一个平衡收益最大化与环境排放最小化的最优解集。结果表明:灌溉量16 ~ 23 mm、尿素用量160 ~ 210 kg N·ha−1、施肥深度10 ~ 25 cm、翻耕深度5 ~ 10 cm、硝化抑制剂效率30 ~ 50%的优化方案可使三七单产保持或提高50%,CO2和N2O排放量分别减少10% ~ 50%和48% ~ 60%。意义本研究构建的“快速敏感性分析-模型评价-多目标优化”方法体系可为解决三七或其他作物种植“高产-环保”的现实矛盾提供科学依据,对实现三七产业的绿色可持续发展具有重要的指导价值。
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引用次数: 0
Integrating agroecological suitability of cacao (Theobroma cacao L.) with biodiversity and land-use constraints in Peru 秘鲁可可的农业生态适宜性与生物多样性和土地利用限制的综合研究
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2026.104637
Alexander Cotrina-Sanchez , Betty K. Guzman , Elgar Barboza , Manuel Oliva , Angel Fernando Huaman-Pilco , Nilton B. Rojas-Briceño

CONTEXT

Cacao cultivation is vital for rural economies in Peru, but its expansion often overlaps with sensitive ecosystems, raising concerns for biodiversity conservation. Despite international commitments to deforestation-free supply chains, integrated analyses combining agroecological suitability with land-use constraints remain scarce in Peru.

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to identify suitable areas for cacao cultivation under multiple exclusion scenarios, evaluate conflicts with biodiversity and conservation areas, and quantify degraded lands that could provide opportunities for agroforestry-based restoration.

METHODS

Cacao suitability was modelled with an ensemble of nine machine-learning algorithms using bioclimatic, edaphic, and topographic predictors. Outputs were filtered to exclude biophysical barriers and overlaid with national-scale layers of species richness, protected areas, forest cover, and degraded lands through GIS-based spatial analysis to evaluate exclusion scenarios and trade-offs.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

The ensemble achieved high predictive power, with Random Forest (AUC = 0.997) and XGBoost (AUC = 0.972) performing best. Highly suitable areas were concentrated in the Andean-Amazon transition, especially in San Martín, Cusco, Huánuco, and Junín departments, where they overlapped with biodiversity hotspots and legally protected areas. Degraded yet suitable lands highlighted opportunities to expand cacao through agroforestry systems, reducing forest pressure and enhancing ecological restoration.

SIGNIFICANCE

By integrating suitability modelling with national-scale geospatial layers, this study delivers a framework linking crop suitability with land-use constraints. The findings support national-scale planning while remaining adaptable to local contexts. They also align with international policy frameworks such as the European Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), promoting sustainable cacao production, biodiversity conservation, and long-term rural development in Peru.
可可种植对秘鲁的农村经济至关重要,但其扩张往往与敏感的生态系统重叠,引发了对生物多样性保护的担忧。尽管国际社会对不砍伐森林的供应链做出了承诺,但在秘鲁,结合农业生态适宜性和土地利用限制的综合分析仍然很少。目的在多种排斥情景下,确定适合可可种植的区域,评估与生物多样性和保护区的冲突,量化退化土地,为农林业恢复提供机会。方法利用生物气候、地理和地形预测因子,利用9种机器学习算法对scacao适宜性进行建模。通过基于gis的空间分析,对输出进行过滤以排除生物物理障碍,并在国家尺度上覆盖物种丰富度、保护区、森林覆盖和退化土地,以评估排除情景和权衡。结果与结论集合具有较高的预测能力,其中Random Forest (AUC = 0.997)和XGBoost (AUC = 0.972)的预测效果最好。高度适宜区集中在安第斯-亚马逊过渡区,特别是San Martín、Cusco、Huánuco和Junín省,与生物多样性热点和法定保护区重叠。退化但适宜的土地突出了通过农林复合系统、减少森林压力和加强生态恢复来扩大可可种植的机会。通过将适宜性模型与国家尺度的地理空间层相结合,本研究提供了一个将作物适宜性与土地利用约束联系起来的框架。研究结果支持全国范围的规划,同时保持对当地情况的适应性。它们还与《欧洲森林砍伐条例》(EUDR)等国际政策框架保持一致,促进秘鲁的可持续可可生产、生物多样性保护和长期农村发展。
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引用次数: 0
Cropland use intensity, stability, and crop transition dynamics in the Songhua River Basin (2000–2024): Implications for sustainable land use and food security 2000-2024年松花江流域耕地利用强度、稳定性和作物转型动态:对土地可持续利用和粮食安全的影响
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2026.104652
Lai Gan , Xiao Xiao , Yishan Li , Qiyuan Hu , Yang Lan , Yang Xie , Fei Lun

CONTEXT

The Songhua River Basin (SRB), a vital grain base within the global black soil belt, faces unquantified instability from agricultural intensification and urbanization. However, existing assessments fail to integrate long-term spatial cropland use intensity, stability, and fine-scale crop management transitions, limiting our understanding of agricultural resilience.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to quantify spatiotemporal dynamics and reveal the coupling mechanism between management practices and stability in the SRB. Specifically, we sought to: (1) characterize the spatiotemporal cropland dynamics; (2) unpack the nexus of cropland use intensity, stability and crop-type transitions; and (3) identify the driving forces and inform policy.

METHODS

To achieve these objectives, we developed an integrated framework to jointly assess cropland use intensity (CUI), cropland stability (CS), and crop-type transition pathways. We defined CUI as cumulative cultivated years and CS as a new index quantifying the persistence of cultivation within a pixel's dynamic land-use window (ratio of actual to potential years). Leveraging 25 years (2000–2024) of time-series Landsat imagery, we employed a Random Forest classifier to generate annual 30-m maps of cropland and major crops (maize, rice, soybean), achieving an overall accuracy >90% and Kappa >0.85.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis revealed a landscape of high commitment but fragile trade-offs. Over 55% of croplands exhibited very high use intensity (>20 years), with 60% classified as Highly Stable (HS) or Fully Stable (FS), concentrated in the fertile midstream and downstream plains. However, a severe quality-quantity trade-off was identified: while 100.4 × 103 km2 of new land was reclaimed, 40% of this expansion remained Unstable (US), largely confined to ecologically marginal zones. Concurrently, 9.8 × 103 km2 of high-quality, stable cropland was irreversibly lost to urban expansion. Crucially, we established a strong non-linear coupling between stability and management: high-frequency crop-type transitions (i.e., rotation) were strictly associated with resilient, high-stability zones, whereas low-frequency patterns characterized the extremes of either monoculture or instability.

SIGNIFICANCE

This study provides a novel, integrated assessment moving beyond conventional area-based metrics. The findings offer a clear policy mandate for the SRB and similar grain bases: sustainable food security requires a paradigm shift from maintaining “cropland area balance” to managing “cropland stability,” prioritizing strict zoning to protect stable cropland and incentivizing sustainable rotation systems.
松花江流域作为全球黑土带重要的粮食基地,面临着农业集约化和城市化带来的不可量化的不稳定性。然而,现有的评估未能整合长期的空间耕地利用强度、稳定性和精细尺度的作物管理转型,限制了我们对农业弹性的理解。目的量化SRB管理实践与稳定性的时空动态关系,揭示SRB管理实践与稳定性的耦合机制。具体而言,我们试图:(1)描述耕地时空动态特征;(2)揭示了耕地利用强度、稳定性与作物类型转换之间的关系;(3)识别驱动因素并为政策提供信息。为了实现这些目标,我们开发了一个综合框架来联合评估耕地利用强度(CUI)、耕地稳定性(CS)和作物类型转换路径。我们将CUI定义为累积耕作年数,将CS定义为量化在一个像元动态土地利用窗口内耕作持续性的新指标(实际与潜在年数之比)。利用25年(2000-2024)的时间序列Landsat图像,我们使用随机森林分类器生成每年30米的农田和主要作物(玉米、水稻、大豆)地图,总体精度达到90%,Kappa为0.85。结果与结论我们的分析揭示了高承诺但脆弱权衡的格局。超过55%的农田表现出非常高的利用强度(>;20年),60%的农田被划分为高度稳定(HS)或完全稳定(FS),集中在肥沃的中下游平原。然而,发现了严重的质量-数量权衡:虽然100.4 × 103 km2的新土地被填海,但40%的扩张仍然不稳定(US),主要局限于生态边缘地带。同时,9.8 × 103 km2的优质稳定耕地因城市扩张而不可逆转地消失。至关重要的是,我们在稳定性和管理之间建立了强烈的非线性耦合:高频率的作物类型转换(即轮作)与有弹性的高稳定性区密切相关,而低频率模式的特征是极端的单一栽培或不稳定。意义:本研究提供了一种新颖的、综合的评估方法,超越了传统的基于区域的指标。这些发现为SRB和类似的粮食基地提供了明确的政策授权:可持续粮食安全需要从维持“耕地面积平衡”到管理“耕地稳定”的范式转变,优先考虑严格分区以保护稳定的耕地,并激励可持续的轮作制度。
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引用次数: 0
Long-term balanced organic and synthetic nitrogen fertilization can realize sustainable crop production 长期平衡施用有机氮和合成氮可以实现作物的可持续生产
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2026.104653
Chong Zhang , Xin Zhang , Robert M. Rees , Wim de Vries , Luis Lassaletta , Jagdish K. Ladha , Xiaotang Ju

CONTEXT

Manure recycling to cropland reduces synthetic fertilizer use and nitrogen (N) waste while increasing soil carbon (C) sequestration, which is important for sustainable crop production. However, few studies have systematically integrated long-term N budgets with changes of soil C and N stocks and the greenhouse gas (GHG) balance.

OBJECTIVE

We aim to quantify the long-term responses of crop productivity, changes of soil C and N stock, reactive N losses and the GHG balance to various C and N management practices, thus providing evidence for sustainable crop production.

METHODS

We used a 15-year wheat-maize double cropping system in the North China Plain. The experiment included eight fertilization treatments with contrasting C and N management practices. Crop productivity, N losses, changes of soil C and N stock; and the GHG balance were evaluated.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

Compared with conventional fertilization with excess synthetic N, long-term balanced organic and synthetic N fertilization (in which N rates were determined using an N balance approach and target N yield, and the rates of synthetic N equal to the difference between above N rate and mineralized N from manure) increases crop yield and N harvest by 8–11%, and soil C and N sequestration by 191–230%, while reducing N inputs by 23%, thus also reducing reactive N losses by 40% and the GHG balance from 59 to −2143 kg CO2-eq ha−1. Although the N surplus was relatively high in the balanced organic and synthetic N fertilization, it did not cause high N losses but achieved high soil C and N sequestration and crop yield, which were not achieved under the optimum synthetic N fertilization.

SIGNIFICANCE

This study emphasizes the benefits of combining organic and synthetic N within an appropriate N management framework, offering a global model for sustainable crop production in croplands. Site-specific adjustments could be necessary when applying these findings to other regions with distinctly different soil or climatic conditions. We should interpret N surplus cautiously because a high N surplus does not necessarily lead to high N losses with manure recycling to croplands.
粪肥回收到农田减少了合成肥料的使用和氮(N)的浪费,同时增加了土壤碳(C)的固存,这对可持续作物生产至关重要。然而,很少有研究系统地将长期氮收支与土壤碳氮储量和温室气体平衡的变化相结合。目的量化作物生产力、土壤碳氮储量变化、活性氮损失和温室气体平衡对不同碳氮管理措施的长期响应,为作物可持续生产提供依据。方法在华北平原采用小麦-玉米15年双季制。试验包括8个不同碳氮管理方式的施肥处理。作物生产力、氮素损失、土壤碳氮储量变化;和温室气体平衡。结果与结论与常规过量合成氮施肥相比,长期平衡有机和合成氮施肥(以氮平衡法和目标氮产量确定施氮量,合成氮用量等于上述施氮量与粪肥矿化氮之差)可使作物产量和氮收获提高8-11%,土壤碳氮固存提高191-230%,而氮素投入减少23%。因此,还可以减少40%的活性氮损失,并将温室气体平衡从59 kg co2当量ha - 1减少到- 2143 kg co2当量ha - 1。有机和合成氮肥平衡施用时,虽然氮肥剩余量较高,但没有造成高的氮素损失,反而实现了较好的土壤碳氮固存和作物产量,而这是最佳合成氮肥施用所不能达到的。本研究强调了有机氮和合成氮在适当的氮素管理框架下相结合的益处,为农田作物可持续生产提供了全球模式。在将这些发现应用于其他土壤或气候条件明显不同的地区时,可能需要对特定地点进行调整。我们应该谨慎地解释氮盈余,因为高氮盈余并不一定导致高氮损失,因为粪肥再循环到农田。
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引用次数: 0
Time is money: Spatially explicit system analysis for rice-wheat cropping systems of Eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains, India 时间就是金钱:印度东部印度-恒河平原水稻-小麦种植系统的空间显性系统分析
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2026.104648
Maxwell Mkondiwa , Avinash Kishore , Sonam Sherpa , Anton Urfels , Bhavani Pinjarla , Virender Kumar , Panneerselvam Peramaiyan , Andrew McDonald

CONTEXT

Late sowing of wheat is a major reason for poor yields in eastern India (Bihar and Eastern Uttar Pradesh) due to a shorter growing period, and risk of terminal heat stress. Despite big losses and widespread awareness, late sowing of wheat is widely prevalent in the region. Why? Most wheat is sown after harvesting monsoon rice from the same plot. Later rice harvests interfere with timely wheat sowing.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the study is to analyse the interdependence between the rice and wheat to optimize crop establishment dates at the cropping systems level for increasing yields, revenues and mitigating risks.

METHODS

We collected production practices data from 5021 plots sequentially cultivated with rice and wheat in the State of Bihar and the eastern districts of Uttar Pradesh. We use this unique data to implement a multivariate Bayesian geo-additive model and risk-return optimization framework to determine rice and wheat sowing dates that give the highest risk-adjusted economic gains to farmers.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSION

Early transplanting of rice and early sowing of wheat have spatially differentiated yield, revenue, and risk (minimal variance) benefits. We find that early transplanting of rice (between June 20 and July 20) and wheat (between November 1 and November 15) leads to a revenue gain of 5000–10,000 Rs ha−1 (∼62.5–125 US$ ha−1) at minimal risk and no revenue trade-offs (non-negative correlation). Conversely, late transplanting of rice has negative effects on correlation of rice and wheat yields therefore leading to a yield and revenue tradeoff. Evidence of spatially differentiated dependence between rice and wheat yield systems implies that analysing these crops separately may be suboptimal.

SIGNIFICANCE

Spatial intelligence on cropping system inter-dependence can help farmers select the appropriate crop management practices (e.g., variety duration, irrigation, fertilizer application) and adjust their sowing dates based on local conditions and constraints, thereby optimizing yields and incomes in the rice-wheat system. It can also help policy makers in implementing spatially differentiated entry points for increasing yields and farm incomes at minimum risks.
小麦晚播是印度东部(比哈尔邦和北方邦东部)产量低的一个主要原因,原因是生长期较短,而且有后期热应激的风险。尽管损失很大,但人们普遍意识到,晚播小麦在该地区普遍存在。为什么?大多数小麦是在同一块地里收获季候稻后播种的。水稻晚收妨碍了小麦的及时播种。本研究的目的是分析水稻和小麦之间的相互依赖关系,以优化种植制度水平上的作物建立日期,以提高产量、收入和降低风险。方法收集比哈尔邦和北方邦东部地区5021块按顺序种植水稻和小麦的土地的生产实践数据。我们使用这些独特的数据来实现多元贝叶斯地理加性模型和风险回报优化框架,以确定水稻和小麦的播种日期,为农民提供最高的风险调整后经济收益。结果与结论水稻早插和小麦早播在产量、收益和风险(最小方差)效益上存在空间差异。我们发现,水稻(6月20日至7月20日)和小麦(11月1日至11月15日)的早期移栽以最小的风险和无收入权衡(非负相关)带来5000-10,000卢比/公顷(~ 62.5-125美元/公顷)的收入增加。相反,水稻晚移栽对水稻和小麦产量的相关性有负面影响,从而导致产量和收入的权衡。水稻和小麦产量系统之间空间差异依赖性的证据表明,单独分析这些作物可能是不理想的。种植系统相互依赖的空间智能可以帮助农民选择适当的作物管理措施(如品种持续时间、灌溉、施肥),并根据当地条件和限制因素调整播种日期,从而优化稻麦系统的产量和收入。它还可以帮助决策者实施空间差异化的切入点,以最小的风险提高产量和农业收入。
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引用次数: 0
Adaptive Crop Management Strategies to Mitigate Climate Change Impacts on Rice and Maize Production in the Philippines 缓解气候变化对菲律宾水稻和玉米生产影响的适应性作物管理战略
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2026.104639
Lanie A. Alejo , Orlando F. Balderama , Elmer A. Rosete , Juan M. Pulhin

CONTEXT

Climate change is altering temperature and rainfall patterns, threatening agricultural productivity in tropical countries like the Philippines. Isabela Province, a major rice and corn producing region, is highly exposed to these risks. Estimating future yield responses and identifying adaptation options are essential for ensuring food security.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to assess the impacts of climate change on rice and corn yields in Isabela by 2050 under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP5–8.5). It also evaluated whether adjusting planting dates and applying supplemental irrigation could reduce potential yield losses.

METHODS

Simulations were conducted using the DSSAT crop simulation model for upland rice, lowland rice, and rainfed corn. Mid-century climate data were sourced from DOST-PAGASA under CMIP6 scenarios. Simulations covered dry, normal, and wet years across planting seasons. Weekly planting runs identified optimal sowing dates, while additional runs evaluated irrigation effects. Crop genetic coefficients were based on previously calibrated and validated Philippine crop simulation studies using the DSSAT model.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

Yield reductions were observed under all climate scenarios, particularly in lowland rice and rainfed corn during the dry season. CO₂ fertilization helped mitigate losses in upland systems. Retrofitting planting calendars improved yields by up to 150% in upland rice, 42% in lowland rice, and 82% in rainfed corn. When irrigation was added, yield gains increased further by up to 229%, 118%, and 120%, respectively. Dry years showed the highest improvements. Adjusting planting schedules and adding irrigation are effective, climate-smart strategies to boost yield and resilience. These measures can help reduce yield losses and support food security planning in climate-vulnerable regions. The findings provide practical insights for local adaptation and agricultural policy development.

SIGNIFICANCE

This study highlights the potential of climate-informed planting calendars and targeted irrigation as low-cost, high-impact adaptation strategies. These approaches can enhance the resilience of rice and corn systems and support climate-smart agricultural planning.
气候变化正在改变温度和降雨模式,威胁着菲律宾等热带国家的农业生产力。伊莎贝拉省是水稻和玉米的主要产区,极易受到这些风险的影响。估计未来产量反应和确定适应方案对于确保粮食安全至关重要。本研究旨在评估2050年气候变化对伊莎贝拉水稻和玉米产量在3条共享社会经济路径(SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP5-8.5)下的影响。它还评估了调整种植日期和补充灌溉是否可以减少潜在的产量损失。方法采用DSSAT作物模拟模型对旱稻、旱稻和旱作玉米进行模拟。中期气候数据来源于post - pagasa在CMIP6情景下的数据。模拟涵盖了干旱、正常和潮湿的种植季节。每周播种试验确定最佳播种日期,而额外的试验评估灌溉效果。作物遗传系数基于先前使用DSSAT模型校准和验证的菲律宾作物模拟研究。结果与结论在所有气候情景下都观察到产量下降,特别是旱季的低地水稻和雨养玉米。CO₂施肥有助于减轻旱地系统的损失。改良种植日历可使旱稻产量提高150%,低地稻产量提高42%,雨养玉米产量提高82%。在增加灌溉的情况下,产量增幅分别达到229%、118%和120%。干旱年份的改善最大。调整种植计划和增加灌溉是提高产量和抗灾能力的有效气候智能型战略。这些措施有助于减少产量损失,支持气候脆弱地区的粮食安全规划。这些发现为地方适应和农业政策制定提供了实际见解。这项研究强调了气候知情种植日历和定向灌溉作为低成本、高影响适应策略的潜力。这些方法可以增强水稻和玉米系统的抵御能力,并支持气候智能型农业规划。
{"title":"Adaptive Crop Management Strategies to Mitigate Climate Change Impacts on Rice and Maize Production in the Philippines","authors":"Lanie A. Alejo ,&nbsp;Orlando F. Balderama ,&nbsp;Elmer A. Rosete ,&nbsp;Juan M. Pulhin","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2026.104639","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2026.104639","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>CONTEXT</h3><div>Climate change is altering temperature and rainfall patterns, threatening agricultural productivity in tropical countries like the Philippines. Isabela Province, a major rice and corn producing region, is highly exposed to these risks. Estimating future yield responses and identifying adaptation options are essential for ensuring food security.</div></div><div><h3>OBJECTIVE</h3><div>This study aimed to assess the impacts of climate change on rice and corn yields in Isabela by 2050 under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP5–8.5). It also evaluated whether adjusting planting dates and applying supplemental irrigation could reduce potential yield losses.</div></div><div><h3>METHODS</h3><div>Simulations were conducted using the DSSAT crop simulation model for upland rice, lowland rice, and rainfed corn. Mid-century climate data were sourced from DOST-PAGASA under CMIP6 scenarios. Simulations covered dry, normal, and wet years across planting seasons. Weekly planting runs identified optimal sowing dates, while additional runs evaluated irrigation effects. Crop genetic coefficients were based on previously calibrated and validated Philippine crop simulation studies using the DSSAT model.</div></div><div><h3>RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS</h3><div>Yield reductions were observed under all climate scenarios, particularly in lowland rice and rainfed corn during the dry season. CO₂ fertilization helped mitigate losses in upland systems. Retrofitting planting calendars improved yields by up to 150% in upland rice, 42% in lowland rice, and 82% in rainfed corn. When irrigation was added, yield gains increased further by up to 229%, 118%, and 120%, respectively. Dry years showed the highest improvements. Adjusting planting schedules and adding irrigation are effective, climate-smart strategies to boost yield and resilience. These measures can help reduce yield losses and support food security planning in climate-vulnerable regions. The findings provide practical insights for local adaptation and agricultural policy development.</div></div><div><h3>SIGNIFICANCE</h3><div>This study highlights the potential of climate-informed planting calendars and targeted irrigation as low-cost, high-impact adaptation strategies. These approaches can enhance the resilience of rice and corn systems and support climate-smart agricultural planning.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"233 ","pages":"Article 104639"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146033223","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Quantifying the mitigation potential of greenhouse gas emissions from paddy fields under optimal irrigation and carbon management in the Lake Tai region 太湖地区最佳灌溉与碳管理下稻田温室气体减排潜力量化研究
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2026.104646
Zewei Jiang , Shihong Yang , Qingqing Pang , Mohamed Abdalla , Junyi Wang , Grant A. Campbell , Pete Smith

CONTEXT

The synergistic effects of water‑carbon management on greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation across regional paddy fields remains unclear. A critical knowledge gap exists in evaluating trade-offs between regional GHG reduction, carbon sequestration, and agronomic outcomes under climate-smart practices.

OBJECTIVE

The objectives are to: (1) quantify the spatio-temporal mitigation potential of optimized irrigation and carbon management, including straw return, manure, and biochar, from paddies in the Lake Tai region, China; (2) investigate historical (2000-2020) and future 80-year climate scenarios; (3) propose optimal water-carbon management strategies for climate adaptation.

METHODS

The DeNitrification DeComposition Biochar-Controlled Irrigation (DNDC-BC) model was calibrated and validated against observed GHG emissions, soil organic carbon (SOC), and rice yield. Regional simulations incorporated spatial datasets (meteorological, topography, soil, and management) and CMIP6 climate projections. Additionally, system-level sustainability was evaluated using TOPSIS analysis integrating GHG emissions, rice yield, and SOC.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

Results demonstrated that DNDC-BC performed well in identifying GHG emission hotspots and accurately predicting SOC levels and rice yield. The cumulative methane (CH4) emissions from paddies in the Lake Tai region over the past two decades was 281.73 Gg. As a result of urbanization and atmospheric deposition, total CH4 emissions have declined, while total nitrogen oxide (N2O) emissions fluctuated between 5 and 6 Gg. Under both historical and future climate change conditions, biochar application (CB_20; 20 t ha−1) with controlled irrigation (CI), has the best mitigation potential. The emission reduction ratio for CH4 was between 23.53%–57.44%.

SIGNIFICANCE

Overall, the combination of CI and biochar amendment is recommended at a regional scale for its potential to mitigate GHG emissions, enhance carbon sequestration, reduce irrigation water use, and improve rice yields. However, the economic feasibility of implementing this strategy should be carefully considered when promoting it at scale.
水碳管理对区域稻田温室气体(GHG)减缓的协同效应尚不清楚。在评估气候智能型实践下区域温室气体减排、碳固存和农业成果之间的权衡方面,存在一个关键的知识缺口。目的:(1)量化太湖地区稻田优化灌溉和碳管理(包括秸秆还田、粪便和生物炭)的时空缓解潜力;(2)研究历史(2000-2020年)和未来80年气候情景;(3)提出适应气候变化的最佳水碳管理策略。方法根据温室气体排放、土壤有机碳(SOC)和水稻产量对反硝化分解生物炭控制灌溉(DNDC-BC)模型进行标定和验证。区域模拟结合了空间数据集(气象、地形、土壤和管理)和CMIP6气候预估。此外,利用综合温室气体排放、水稻产量和有机碳的TOPSIS分析对系统水平的可持续性进行了评估。结果与结论DNDC-BC在识别温室气体排放热点、准确预测有机碳水平和水稻产量方面具有较好的效果。太湖流域稻田近20 a累积甲烷(CH4)排放量为281.73 Gg,受城市化和大气沉降的影响,CH4排放总量呈下降趋势,而氮氧化物(N2O)排放总量在5 ~ 6 Gg之间波动,在历史和未来气候变化条件下,生物炭(CB_20; 20 tha−1)加控制灌溉(CI)的缓解潜力最大。CH4的减排比例在23.53% ~ 57.44%之间。总体而言,建议在区域尺度上将CI和生物炭改良相结合,以减少温室气体排放、增强碳固存、减少灌溉用水和提高水稻产量。但是,在大规模推广这一战略时,应仔细考虑实施这一战略的经济可行性。
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引用次数: 0
Trajectories of change for farmers to integrate agri-environmental practices: A longitudinal study of adoption dynamics 农民整合农业环境实践的变化轨迹:采用动态的纵向研究
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2026.104638
Aurélie Dumont, Julie Ruiz, Stéphane Campeau

Context

The adoption of agri-environmental practices (AEPs) is rarely linear. Farmers follow complex trajectories shaped by technical systems, individual perceptions, and broader socio-environmental conditions. Cross-sectional studies often miss this variability, highlighting the need for longitudinal approaches that capture how change unfolds over time.

Objective

This study examines the diversity of individual trajectories through which AEPs are voluntarily integrated into system of farming practices. It characterises trajectories across four dimensions—direction, speed, continuity, and extent—using the CIAEP framework (Change towards the Integration of Agri-Environmental Practices).

Methods

A six-year longitudinal study (2015, 2017, 2021) was conducted with 20 farmers in southern Quebec, Canada. Repeated interviews documented the integration of three sets of practices: environmentally aligned AEPs, soil conservation practices, and riparian buffer strips. Farmers were positioned within stages of change using the CIAEP framework.

Results and conclusions

Farmers experienced varied trajectories in the integration of different practices. Soil conservation practices were often marked by setbacks and discontinuities, while riparian buffers advanced more steadily. For most farmers, trajectories were slow, with only a few reaching operationalisation or full integration. Major shifts typically occurred after “trigger” moments when environmental challenges were recognised. Rapid trajectories were observed but rarely sustained; slower, continuous ones were more often associated with partial integration.

Significance

This study demonstrates the value of longitudinal analyses for capturing adoption dynamics and variability among farmers. It provides methodological insights into change processes and practical guidance for policymakers and advisors: sustained, tailored support aligned with farmers' trajectories is essential to foster durable integration of AEPs.
农业环境实践(AEPs)的采用很少是线性的。农民遵循由技术系统、个人观念和更广泛的社会环境条件形成的复杂轨迹。横断面研究经常忽略这种可变性,强调需要纵向方法来捕捉变化如何随时间展开。目的本研究考察了农业生产者自愿融入农业实践系统的个体轨迹的多样性。它利用CIAEP框架(向农业-环境实践一体化的转变)描述了四个维度的轨迹——方向、速度、连续性和范围。方法对加拿大魁北克省南部20名农民进行为期6年(2015年、2017年、2021年)的纵向研究。反复的访谈记录了三套实践的整合:符合环境的aep、土壤保护实践和河岸缓冲带。使用CIAEP框架,农民被定位在变化的阶段。结果与结论农民在不同实践的整合过程中经历了不同的发展轨迹。土壤保持措施的特点往往是挫折和不连续性,而河岸缓冲则更稳定地推进。对大多数农民来说,发展轨迹缓慢,只有少数农民实现了业务化或完全一体化。重大转变通常发生在认识到环境挑战的“触发”时刻之后。观察到快速的轨迹,但很少持续;较慢的、连续的记忆往往与部分积分有关。意义本研究证明了纵向分析在捕捉农民收养动态和变异性方面的价值。它为变革过程提供了方法论上的见解,并为政策制定者和顾问提供了实际指导:根据农民的发展轨迹提供持续的、量身定制的支持,对于促进农业生产者的持久整合至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Dynamic trajectories and maturity of farmer collaboration for biodiversity sensitive farming – Insights from the FRAMEwork Farmer Clusters 生物多样性敏感农业中农民合作的动态轨迹和成熟度——来自农民集群框架的见解
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2026.104644
Iris C. Bohnet , Gerid Hager , Thomas Rellensmann , Claire Hardy , Niamh M. McHugh , Daniela Ablinger , Virginia Bagnoni , Gillian Banks , Marco Beyer , Lennard Duijvestijn , Pierre Franck , Kristina Janeckova , Riina Kaasik , Youri Martin , Anna-Camilla Moonen , Aliyeh Salehi , Carlos Sánchez-García , Martine Schoone , Clare Scott , Jan Travnicek , Graham S. Begg

CONTEXT

Building on the Farmer Cluster approach, which has evolved over the past decade in England to address ecosystem degradation and biodiversity loss at the landscape scale, FRAMEwork (Farmer clusters for Realising Agrobiodiversity Management across Ecosystems), a Horizon 2020 project, established a network of eleven Farmer Clusters across Europe.

OBJECTIVE

To test the effectiveness of the FRAMEwork Farmer Clusters, a new level of technological and scientific support was offered to the clusters providing opportunities for collaboration, co-production of knowledge, co-innovation, peer-to-peer learning, and monitoring.

METHODS

We provide an overview of the eleven clusters and an in-depth comparative multiple case study analysis to understand the dynamic trajectories and levels of maturity shaping the development and outcomes of each of the Farmer Clusters.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

We identified five formative dimensions – governance, leadership, facilitation, group characteristics and context – all of which are interdependent and dynamic, affecting the functioning of the Farmer Clusters, and leading to different levels of maturity. Comparing the situation of each cluster regarding the five dimensions and the level of maturity, we found that the clusters started in distinct contexts with diverse initial conditions across Europe – from favourable to unfavourable. This led to different dynamic trajectories on a pathway to biodiversity sensitive farming.

SIGNIFICANCE

The maturity assessment matrix offers a valuable tool for Farmer Clusters to reflect on their progress and capacity in achieving their goals, guiding future efforts for effective cluster management.
“地平线2020”项目框架(实现跨生态系统农业生物多样性管理的农民集群)以农民集群方法为基础,在欧洲建立了一个由11个农民集群组成的网络。农民集群方法在过去十年中在英格兰发展,以解决景观尺度上的生态系统退化和生物多样性丧失问题。目的为检验框架农民集群的有效性,为集群提供新的技术和科学支持,为集群提供合作、知识共同生产、共同创新、点对点学习和监测的机会。方法我们概述了11个集群,并对多个案例进行了深入的比较分析,以了解影响每个农民集群发展和结果的动态轨迹和成熟度水平。结果与结论我们确定了五个形成维度——治理、领导、促进、群体特征和环境——所有这些都是相互依存和动态的,影响着农民集群的功能,并导致不同程度的成熟度。比较关于五个维度和成熟度水平的每个集群的情况,我们发现集群在不同的背景下开始,整个欧洲有不同的初始条件-从有利到不利。这导致了生物多样性敏感农业道路上不同的动态轨迹。成熟度评估矩阵为农民集群提供了一个有价值的工具,可以反映他们实现目标的进度和能力,指导未来有效的集群管理工作。
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引用次数: 0
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Agricultural Systems
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