Agricultural Systems最新文献

{"title":"Herder cooperatives vs. independent herders in Inner Mongolia: A comparative analysis of multi-dimensional efficiency","authors":"Jiuzhou Jin ,&nbsp;Ruiyao Zhang ,&nbsp;Pengpeng Dou,&nbsp;Rong Zhi,&nbsp;Ping Li","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104575","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104575","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Abstract</h3><div>Context</div><div>Pastoral systems in Inner Mongolia sustain livelihoods and ecosystem services but face degradation driven by overgrazing, tenure fragmentation, and market–climate stressors. Herder cooperatives have emerged as a policy-backed governance innovation to address these challenges.</div><div>Objective</div><div>Assess whether cooperatives achieve higher multidimensional efficiency—Ecological, economic, and social—Than large- and small-scale independent herders.</div><div>Methods</div><div>Guided by an integrated resource-based, institutional, and sustainable-livelihoods framework, we surveyed 223 households across four banners (2022). Household pastures were georeferenced to MODIS 500 m NPP and within-pasture quadrats (α-diversity). Eighteen indicators were winsorized, normalized, and combined via an entropy-weighted composite, with robustness checks against equal-weight and CRITIC schemes. Determinants were estimated with two-limit Tobit; mechanisms were tested using a parallel two-mediator model (assets, coordination) with bootstrap inference.</div><div>Results and conclusions</div><div>Cooperatives outperform both large- and small-scale independents in ecological and economic efficiency; social differences are modest. Composite efficiency is higher for cooperatives (0.229 vs. 0.217 and 0.210). Positive drivers include labor share, education, and fixed assets; herd size is not significant; non-livestock training is marginally negative. Mediation results show significant indirect effects via assets and via coordination, while the asset to coordination chain is unsupported; a small direct effect remains</div><div>SIGNIFICANCE: Cooperative governance can help reconcile production with ecological stewardship. Performance-linked support that lowers coordination costs and builds household assets may enhance sustainability in pastoral regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"232 ","pages":"Article 104575"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145575494","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Context-specific agronomic solutions for achieving agronomic gains with reduced environmental footprints in irrigated drylands of Egypt","authors":"Mina Devkota ,&nbsp;Krishna Prasad Devkota ,&nbsp;Mohie El Din Omar ,&nbsp;Samar Attaher ,&nbsp;Ajit Govind ,&nbsp;Vinay Nangia","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104566","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104566","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;CONTEXT&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;Wheat (&lt;em&gt;Triticum aestivum&lt;/em&gt;) is Egypt's staple crop, crucial for national food security. However, the country remains heavily reliant on imports to meet domestic demand. Enhancing production sustainably requires a systematic assessment of attainable yield and profit gaps along with the identification of key factors driving.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;OBJECTIVES&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;This study aims to identify major determinants of wheat yield and profit gaps across different governorates in New and Old Lands; to develop context-specific integrated agronomic solutions for sustainably closing these gaps while reducing environmental footprints.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;MATERIALS AND METHODS&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;We used random field survey samples of 2042 individual wheat fields across 23 wheat-growing governorates covering New and Old Lands during 2021/2022 growing season. Based on crop yield, farmers were categorized into three groups, and attainable yield and profit gaps were calculated from difference between mean yield of top 10th decile and average farmers' yield. Random Forest model is used to analyze data and identify major factors affecting yield, profit, and nitrogen use efficiency (NUE). Sustainability of wheat production was assessed using various indicators. Comparative analyses were conducted to evaluate differences in yield, input use efficiency, and profitability between Old and New Land, as well as across different yield gap categories.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;RESULTS AND DISCUSSION&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;Analysis revealed significant yield and profit gaps between average and high-yielding farmers in both Old and New Lands. In Old Land, high-yield farmers (10th decile) achieved average yields of 8.4 t ha&lt;sup&gt;−1&lt;/sup&gt; and net profits of US$1097 ha&lt;sup&gt;−1&lt;/sup&gt;, compared with 6.5 t ha&lt;sup&gt;−1&lt;/sup&gt; and US$675 ha&lt;sup&gt;−1&lt;/sup&gt; for medium-yield farmers. In the New Lands, the yield gap was more pronounced, with high-yield farmers achieving average yields of 7.5 t ha&lt;sup&gt;−1&lt;/sup&gt; compared to 4.63 t ha&lt;sup&gt;−1&lt;/sup&gt; for medium-yield farmers, highlighting a significant opportunity to increase productivity. Determinants for yield and profit varied across governorates, indicating need for governorate-specific strategies to sustainably close yield and profit gaps. Water productivity, NUE, and labor productivity were notably lower, while production cost showed no strong correlation with yield and was negatively correlated with greenhouse gas emission intensity (GHGI). Raised bed planting improved NUE by 29 %, increased water productivity by 18 %, and reduced GHGI by 15 % compared with conventional flat planting.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;SIGNIFICANCE&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;Adopting context-specific agronomic practices that combine integrated-fertilization, efficient irrigation, suitable varieties, and raised-bed planting can enhance agronomic gains while reducing environmental footprints. When tailored to local yield-limiting factors, these solutions provide a sustainable pathway to narrow","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"232 ","pages":"Article 104566"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145578178","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Future climate resilience in rice systems of southern China: Double-cropping outperforms single-cropping in water-food sustainability","authors":"Xinlin Li ,&nbsp;Zezhu Wei ,&nbsp;Jianhang Cui ,&nbsp;Ruoyan Yao ,&nbsp;Puyu Feng ,&nbsp;De Li Liu ,&nbsp;Chengcheng Yuan ,&nbsp;Yong Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104576","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104576","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>CONTEXT</h3><div>Climate warming and elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, coupled with an ongoing transition from double-cropping rice systems (DCRS) to single-cropping rice systems (SCRS), are reshaping yield and hydrological processes in the subtropical monsoon regions of southern China. These concurrent shifts intensify the tension between yield stability and water sustainability under future climate scenarios.</div></div><div><h3>OBJECTIVE</h3><div>This study aims to evaluate the differential responses of DCRS and SCRS to future climate change, with a particular focus on rice yield and hydrological dynamics, in order to identify resilient cropping strategies under warming and CO₂ enrichment.</div></div><div><h3>METHODS</h3><div>An integrated modeling framework was developed for the Zishui River Basin (ZRB), a representative DCRS region in southern China. This framework combined high-resolution paddy field mapping, an enhanced Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) incorporating dynamic CO₂ response mechanisms, and multi-scenario climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Simulations were conducted under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5) for the periods 2041–2070 and 2071–2100.</div></div><div><h3>RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS</h3><div>Under SSP5–8.5 by the end of the century, the SCRS exhibited up to 29.9 % yield loss, primarily due to heat-induced phenological shortening. In contrast, the DCRS demonstrated greater climate resilience: early rice consistently benefited from elevated CO₂ and increased thermal accumulation, resulting in robust gains in yield, while late rice, though more heat-sensitive, maintained stable productivity under moderate warming. Overall, the DCRS outperformed the SCRS, highlighting its systemic advantage in balancing water inputs with grain production.</div></div><div><h3>SIGNIFICANCE</h3><div>These findings emphasize the importance of embedding climate resilience into future rice production systems. Promoting double-cropping practices presents a viable adaptation pathway to enhance regional food–water sustainability under climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"232 ","pages":"Article 104576"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145560041","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An integrated meteorological adaptive simulation-optimization framework for real-time irrigation scheduling considering perfect weather forecasts","authors":"Kexin Li ,&nbsp;Yanan Jiang ,&nbsp;Ang Li ,&nbsp;Xiangzhe Tian ,&nbsp;Jiatong Lu ,&nbsp;Tingting Wei ,&nbsp;Jiangfeng Xiangli ,&nbsp;Xifeng Huang ,&nbsp;Yongmin Li ,&nbsp;Shikun Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104567","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104567","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>CONTEXT</h3><div>The imbalance between crop water demand and supply often exerts negative impacts on local agricultural development in climate variability sensitive areas with increasing extreme weather conditions. Optimizing irrigation strategies is essential for alleviating irrigation water scarcity and promoting sustainable agriculture.</div></div><div><h3>OBJECTIVE</h3><div>The main objective of this work is to propose an Integrated Meteorological Adaptive Simulation-Optimization (IMASO) framework for crop irrigation strategies, enabling within-season real-time optimization of irrigation strategies and leveraging perfect weather forecasts to enhance irrigation guidance and maximize irrigation water productivity (IWP).</div></div><div><h3>METHODS</h3><div>The (IMASO) framework combines both short (5 days) -and medium (15 days) - term perfect weather forecast with Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) algorithm, AquaCrop-OSPy model, and NSGA-III multi-objective optimization algorithm (with a population size of 200, 150 generations) for the first time. This work focuses on winter wheat, the crop model was calibrated and validated using experimental data. Four different maximum single irrigation amounts were considered, and an optimal fixed irrigation strategy was developed by optimizing for maximum average yield, minimum irrigation water use, and highest water productivity over multiple years, serving as the baseline scenario. The IMASO framework was applied during a typical growing season to assess real-time optimization performance.</div></div><div><h3>RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS</h3><div>Results show that incorporating short-term perfect weather forecasts can delay or reduce irrigation events. Considering medium-term perfect weather forecasts for real-time dynamic optimization of irrigation strategies allowed better adaptation to current seasonal conditions. The IMASO framework significantly reduced irrigation water use (by 26 %–57 %) while simultaneously maintaining crop yield. IWP improvements across different maximum single irrigation amounts ranged from 0.19 to 0.66 kg/m³.</div></div><div><h3>SIGNIFICANCE</h3><div>The IMASO framework enables within-season real-time optimization of irrigation strategies by dynamically adapting to weather changes. Ensuring efficient water use while maintaining agricultural productivity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"232 ","pages":"Article 104567"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145567437","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"System optimization practices for profitable and agro-ecologically sustainable agriculture in North-Western Indo-Gangetic Plains","authors":"Radheshyam ,&nbsp;Shankar Lal Jat ,&nbsp;Mangi Lal Jat ,&nbsp;Hanuman Sahay Jat ,&nbsp;Aditya Kumar Singh ,&nbsp;Deep Mohan Mahala ,&nbsp;Chiter Mal Parihar ,&nbsp;Rajbir Singh ,&nbsp;Deepak Bijarniya ,&nbsp;Kailash Chandra Kalvaniya ,&nbsp;Smruti Ranjan Padhan","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104579","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104579","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>CONTEXT</h3><div>Crop production in the food basket of South Asia faces serious challenges of the water table and environmental sustainability driving to future food insecurity. Thus, the conventional rice-wheat (CTRW) system practices are no more sustainable in South Asia.</div></div><div><h3>OBJECTIVE</h3><div>To design and develop alternative, optimal crop management options and assess their scalability through comprehensive system optimization practices (SOP), ensuring high productivity and profitability with lower environmental footprints along with potential for carbon credit generation.</div></div><div><h3>METHODS</h3><div>Field experiments were conducted at the four locations of farmer's fields in Karnal districts of Haryana, India. We evaluated SOP with CTR-zero-tillage (ZT) wheat-mungbean (CTR-ZTWMb) and direct seeded rice-ZT wheat-mungbean (DSR-ZTWMb) and triple ZT (raised bed) systems of maize-wheat-mungbean (ZTMWMb), maize-mustard-mungbean and soybean-wheat-mungbean (ZTSWMb).</div></div><div><h3>RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS</h3><div>The system productivity enhanced by 26.4–29.2 and 26.9–36.9 % with enhanced net returns of 483–553 and 847–1006 US$/ha in rice-based and diversified (ZTMWMb, ZTMMuMb, and ZTSWMb) SOP, respectively over conventional rice-wheat system (CTRW). The diversified SOP had significantly lesser water use by 1023 to 1102 ha-mm with reduced global warming potential (GWP) by 4611–5100 kg CO2 eq./ha (∼5 carbon credit) over CTRW. Based on our study, the adoption of diversified SOP on 0.1 m ha and CTR-ZTWMb on 1.7 m ha can produce additional 0.27–1.23 m t alternate crops with additional net revenue of 906–921 million US$/year and reduction of the GWP by 564–603 million kg CO₂ eq./year over CTRW. Additionally, the non-renewable energy saving from one ha of diversified SOP could help in CTR-ZTWMb adoption on 42–56 ha over CTRW. The on-farm study evidenced that crop production with system optimization practices of legume inclusion and zero tillage could be scaled up in the non-basmati conventional rice-wheat system to achieve higher productivity and profitability as well as environmental stewardship in the North-Western Indo-Gangetic Plains and similar agro-ecologies.</div></div><div><h3>SIGNIFICANCE</h3><div>The system optimization practices adoption in conventional rice-wheat system of North-Western Indo-Gangetic plains could help in enhancing farm profitability and lowering environmental footprint with generation of 5–6 carbon credit.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"232 ","pages":"Article 104579"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145621990","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Optimizing the water-energy-food Nexus for sustainable agriculture in Pakistan: A systems analysis with global implications","authors":"Hassan Iqbal ,&nbsp;Chen Yaning ,&nbsp;Syed Turab Raza ,&nbsp;Sona Karim","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104572","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104572","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;CONTEXT&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;Pakistan's agricultural system, ranked among the world's most water-stressed, demonstrates a critical resource utilization challenge. Despite a 21.8 % expansion in harvested area since 1991 and consuming 90 % of national freshwater resources, wheat productivity remains stagnant at half the global average. This disconnect between input use and output is further exacerbated by 50 % groundwater over-extraction, declining irrigation efficiency, and increasing reliance on chemical inputs. Collectively, these trends reveal the systemic fragility of input-driven growth and underscore the urgent need for an integrated water-energy-food (WEF) nexus approach to reconcile productivity with sustainability.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;OBJECTIVE&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;This study has three key objectives: (1) quantify dynamic relationships between five critical agricultural inputs and productivity, (2) project sustainability thresholds under current practices, and (3) develop transferable optimization frameworks for water-scarce agricultural systems.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;METHODS&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;We employ Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration analysis to examine long-term relationships and short-term dynamics between annual agricultural productivity (AAP) and five key inputs: agricultural water withdrawal (AWW), energy utilization (TEU), cultivated land area (THA), pesticide use (TPU), and fertilizer use (TFU) over a 30-year peroids (1991–2021). Additionally, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) forecasting models were employed to project future scenarios (2022−2031) for both inputs and AAP. The approach validates cointegration through rigorous diagnostic testing (ADF/PP, CUSUM), ensuring robust model performance for forecasting productivity (AAP) under varying input scenarios.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;The findings reveal unsustainable input trajectories: a projected 15.1 % increase in productivity by 2031 would require continued expansion of land (+21.8 % compared with 1991), pesticide use (+82.25 %) and fertilizer application (+19 %). Meanwhile agricultural water (−4.22 %) and energy availability (−6.15 %) are declining, highlighting that these critical resources are becoming increasingly limited. This combination of rising input demands and decreasing essential resources highlights the urgent need for policy interventions such as precision irrigation, integrated nutrient management, and pesticide regulation to avoid ecological collapse.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;SIGNIFICANCE&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;This research provides the first quantitative framework demonstrating the infeasibility of area-expansion strategies in Pakistan's agriculture. The findings call for immediate policy shifts toward precision irrigation, renewable energy integration, regulated agrochemical use and strengthened institutional coordination across water, energy, and agricultural sectors. The proposed WEF nexus framework offers scalable, evidence-based solutio","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"232 ","pages":"Article 104572"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145567421","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Farmers’ willingness to pay for agro-weather advisories: Implications for long term support of weather information in Kenya","authors":"Mercy Kamau ,&nbsp;John Mburu ,&nbsp;Bradford Mills ,&nbsp;Lilian Kirimi","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104509","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104509","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>CONTEXT</h3><div>Climate information services (CIS) are an important tool for mitigation of the impact of climate change and weather variability. The pertinent CIS policy question is how to sustainably provide universal agricultural sector access.</div></div><div><h3>OBJECTIVE</h3><div>Farmers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for localized SMS-based agro-weather advisories is estimated, along with the factors that drive WTP, in order to identify potential tradeoffs between universal access and self-supporting service provision.</div></div><div><h3>METHODS</h3><div>A double-bound dichotomous choice model is employed to estimate farmers’ WTP. Primary data is collected from 2,384 Kenya farm households earmarked to receive weather advisories from a public program and merged with baseline and long-term rainfall data.</div></div><div><h3>RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS</h3><div>The findings reveal a strong demand for the advisories among farmers in Kenya. However, WTP is also positively associated with farm size, raising concern that charging a fee for the advisories will disproportionately limit smaller farmers’ access. Charging the average WTP price of Ksh 91 per month would be sufficient to cover costs of agro-weather service provision. However, only half of the farmers would demand advisories at this price, whilst charging a lower price dramatically increases inclusiveness.</div></div><div><h3>SIGNIFICANCE</h3><div>The dilemma of how to provide financially sustainable CIS while ensuring inclusive access is playing out in Kenya’s policy environment. The Meteorological Act assures farmers free access to agro-climate information but does not identify a source of funding. Cost recovery efforts can focus on high resolution agro-weather forecasts marketed as a ‘club good’ and use extracted surplus to subsidize universal broader resolution CIS.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"231 ","pages":"Article 104509"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145096272","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Applications of ecological niche and species distribution models in agricultural, livestock, and forestry systems: A comprehensive review","authors":"Lucas A. Fadda ,&nbsp;Rodrigo Lasa-Covarrubias ,&nbsp;Luis Osorio-Olvera ,&nbsp;M. Gabriela Murúa ,&nbsp;Andrés Lira-Noriega","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104542","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104542","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>CONTEXT</h3><div>Declining global agricultural productivity driven by climate variability and pest proliferation creates unprecedented food security challenges that traditional management approaches cannot adequately address. Ecological Niche Models (ENM) and Species Distribution Models (SDM) have emerged as powerful frameworks for predicting spatial distributions under future climate scenarios. These approaches enable identification of optimal cultivation zones and development of targeted adaptation strategies that enhance resilience across agricultural systems while supporting proactive management for global food security.</div></div><div><h3>OBJECTIVE</h3><div>This review explores the development and use of ENM and SDM in agriculture, livestock, and forestry, emphasizing their role in identifying production areas, assessing risks from pests, diseases, and weeds, and informing management decisions. It also addresses key methodological aspects and their growing importance in sanitary planning, food security, and climate adaptation.</div></div><div><h3>METHODS</h3><div>We conducted a systematic literature review to examine ENM and SDM applications in productive systems. The analysis recorded specific uses, target organisms, study objectives, and key elements of model construction, parameterization, validation, transferability, and input data.</div></div><div><h3>RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS</h3><div>The review defined the current scope of ENM and SDM in productive systems and identified critical knowledge gaps. It highlights the value of the BAM framework to guide modeling design and interpretation. The findings provide a conceptual base for broader applications and identify future research and implementation opportunities.</div></div><div><h3>SIGNIFICANCE</h3><div>ENM and SDM transform complex ecological and production data into actionable insights that support policy, social, economic, and management decisions across agriculture, forestry, and livestock sectors. Their flexibility across scales enables tailored solutions. Technological advances will enhance their impact, positioning these models as essential tools for sustainable food security.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"231 ","pages":"Article 104542"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145515802","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Integrated water and nitrogen management sustains rice yield and efficiency under changing climate scenarios","authors":"Fazli Hameed ,&nbsp;Muhammad Mannan Afzal ,&nbsp;Anis Ur Rehman Khalil ,&nbsp;Junzeng Xu ,&nbsp;Shah Fahad Rahim ,&nbsp;Raheel Osman ,&nbsp;Khalil Ahmad ,&nbsp;Yongqiang Li ,&nbsp;Tangyuan Ning","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104540","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104540","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>CONTEXT</h3><div>Evidence on how alternate wetting and drying (AWD) irrigation and nitrogen management together influence rice yield and resource efficiency under climate variability is still limited, yet such knowledge is critical for climate-smart agricultural planning. Climate change and inefficient agronomic practices increasingly threaten the sustainability of rice production systems by intensifying water scarcity and lowering nitrogen use efficiency (NUE).</div></div><div><h3>OBJECTIVE</h3><div>The objective of this study was to assess the combined effects of irrigation regimes, continuous flooding (CF) and AWD, and nitrogen application strategies on rice yield, nitrogen uptake, and resource use efficiency under projected climate change scenarios using the ORYZA (v3) model.</div></div><div><h3>METHODS</h3><div>The ORYZA (v₃) crop growth model was used to simulate rice growth, water consumption (ET), irrigation water requirements (IR), water use efficiency (WUE) and nitrogen use efficiencies (NUE) under historical and future climate scenarios (RCP2.6 to RCP8.5). Two irrigation strategies: CF and AWD, and multiple nitrogen application schedules were tested.</div></div><div><h3>RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS</h3><div>Future climate scenarios projected substantial yield reductions, reaching up to 36 % under CF and 43 % under AWD in the 2080s under RCP 8.5. The difference between regimes was small under moderate scenarios but became more pronounced with extreme heat and water stress. Water productivity also declined sharply, with WUE dropping by up to 58 % and irrigation water use efficiency (IWUE) by 72 %. Nitrogen use efficiencies consistently decreased at higher application rates, though moderate N input (150–190 kg ha⁻¹) with split applications sustained relatively better performance. AWD reduced irrigation water demand by 7–70 % compared with CF, but its yield advantage diminished under severe climate stress. Elevated CO₂ modestly improved efficiencies but could not counteract overall declines. Overall, these findings highlight that combining AWD with moderate nitrogen rates offers a practical pathway for sustaining rice production while conserving resources under changing climate conditions.</div></div><div><h3>SIGNIFICANCE</h3><div>These findings provide evidence that combining AWD with moderate nitrogen inputs can guide policies and farm practices aimed at sustaining rice yields, conserving water, and improving input efficiency under a changing climate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"231 ","pages":"Article 104540"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145358702","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Integrative adaptation strategies for stabilizing wheat productivity with rising temperatures in China","authors":"Min Kang ,&nbsp;Dongzheng Zhang ,&nbsp;Yuan Cao ,&nbsp;Liujun Xiao ,&nbsp;Liang Tang ,&nbsp;Leilei Liu ,&nbsp;Weixing Cao ,&nbsp;Yan Zhu ,&nbsp;Bing Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104548","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104548","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>CONTEXT</h3><div>Global wheat production faces growing threats from climate change, particularly rising temperatures, necessitating region-specific adaptive strategies. In China, a key wheat producer and consumer, these challenges vary by region due to differences in climate, soil, and management practices.</div></div><div><h3>OBJECTIVE</h3><div>This study aims to evaluate how adaptive strategies—adjusting sowing dates, anthesis dates, and enhancing heat tolerance—can mitigate the adverse impacts of warming on wheat yields across China's diverse wheat-producing subregions.</div></div><div><h3>METHODS</h3><div>The improved WheatGrow model, incorporating heat stress effects, was used to simulate wheat yield responses under future warming scenarios. Strategies assessed include advancing sowing and anthesis dates and improving heat tolerance, tailored to subregions like Southwestern Winter Wheat Subregion (SWS), Yangtze River Winter Wheat Subregion (MYS), Northern Winter Wheat Subregion (NS), and Huang-Huai Winter Wheat Subregion (HHS).</div></div><div><h3>RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS</h3><div>Advancing sowing dates can better mitigate the negative effects of warming in the SWS and MYS. Advancing anthesis date can increase yields in the NS, HHS and MYS, significantly reducing yield losses caused by heat stress. Additionally, improving heat tolerance in wheat cultivars can lead to higher yield improvements in the NS and HHS. Under the three warming scenarios, comprehensive adaptation strategies significantly reduced yield losses in all four subregions. Under the 1.5 °C HAPPI scenario, the total wheat production in China increased by 0.67 % with the optimal comprehensive adaptation strategy.</div></div><div><h3>SIGNIFICANCE</h3><div>These findings highlight the importance of region-specific adaptations to sustain wheat productivity in China amid climate change, offering actionable insights for policymakers and farmers to enhance food security.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"231 ","pages":"Article 104548"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145382521","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}