Atmospheric Research最新文献

{"title":"Relationship between lightning channel extension and charge transfer during initial continuous current and continuing current in negative artificially triggered lightning","authors":"Jingxuan Wang ,&nbsp;Yang Zhang ,&nbsp;Yijun Zhang ,&nbsp;Yanfeng Fan ,&nbsp;Yurui Li","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108814","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108814","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Continuing current involves substantial charge transfer and is considered a primary cause of lightning-related hazards. Many studies have suggested that the transferred charge primarily originates from the extension of intra-cloud lightning channels, but the relationship between charge transfer and lightning channel extension remains unclear. This study investigates the relationship between intra-cloud lightning channel extension and charge transfer during initial continuous current (ICC) and continuing current (CC). CC is further categorized by duration into traditional continuing current (TCC) and questionable continuing current (QCC). The results show that the duration increases with increasing intra-cloud channel length during ICC, TCC, and QCC. The three types of processes exhibit distinct charge transfer characteristics. ICC shows a slow charge transfer pattern. The charge transfer has a strong linear correlation with channel length during ICC (Pearson correlation coefficient = 0.81), with 22.71% of the charge released in the first 25% of the duration. QCC shows a fast charge transfer pattern. Charge transfer during QCC is mainly associated with the main channel length during the cut-off interval (Spearman's rank correlation coefficient = 0.645), with 90.55% of the charge released in the first 25% of the duration. TCC shows an intermediate charge transfer pattern (68.57% of the charge is released in the first 25% of the duration). Its charge transfer is influenced by two factors: the main channel length during cut-off interval (L_CI-main) and the channel length during TCC (L_TCC-tot). The Spearman's rank correlation coefficient for the summed length is 0.737, with L_TCC-tot being the dominant factor. Additionally, TCC can be further divided into two modes: a high-current, short-duration type dominated by L_CI-main, and a low-current, long-duration type dominated by L_TCC-tot.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"335 ","pages":"Article 108814"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146072704","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impacts of diverse urbanization scenarios on typhoon precipitation patterns in the Pearl River Delta: A case study of Typhoon Mangkhut","authors":"Yongwei He ,&nbsp;Zhongming Gao ,&nbsp;Yulong Ma ,&nbsp;Ping Zhou ,&nbsp;Jingyu Yao ,&nbsp;Xixi Yang ,&nbsp;Lei Li","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108831","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108831","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the impacts of urbanization on typhoon-induced precipitation in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region by employing the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-ARW), with Typhoon Mangkhut selected as a case study. Unlike previous studies that focused solely on the effects of urban expansion on typhoon-induced precipitation, this research explicitly quantifies the impact of urban spatial layouts. To achieve this, we design a series of numerical experiments comprising one control experiment (CTR) and three distinct urbanization scenarios: no-urban (NU), compact urban expansion (UEC), and dispersed urban expansion (UED). The results show that changes in the urban underlying surface exert negligible influence on the track and intensity of Typhoon Mangkhut, but substantially modulate the intensity and spatial distribution of typhoon-induced precipitation. Specifically, the UEC scenario leads to a significant amplification of extreme precipitation within urban regions, thereby increasing the likelihood of concentrated heavy rainfall events and related flooding. Conversely, the UED scenario tends to trigger large-scale moderate-to-heavy precipitation across broader regions rather than localized extremes. A detailed analysis of the underlying physical mechanisms further reveals that the UEC scenario is characterized by reduced near-surface wind speeds but enhanced wind field convergence. These dynamic processes effectively facilitate the upward transport of moist air and the formation of extreme precipitation. In the UED scenario, while thermal disturbances are more pronounced, the associated wind convergence is notably weaker, resulting in relatively lower precipitation magnitudes. This contrast highlights the dominant role of dynamic processes in enhancing typhoon-induced precipitation in the study region. These findings underscore the critical influence of urban spatial structure on regulating the intensity and spatial distribution of such precipitation events, thereby addressing a key research gap concerning how distinct urban layouts modulate typhoon rainfall and the associated physical mechanisms. Consequently, in the PRD and other coastal regions, urban planning should explicitly incorporate the response mechanisms of typhoon precipitation to urbanization, which is essential for balancing socioeconomic development with the urgent need to enhance urban resilience to disasters, particularly in the context of future urban expansion and climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"335 ","pages":"Article 108831"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146110709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A mid-latitude cut-off low fuels widespread near-surface O3 enhancements in China via multiple pathways","authors":"Zhikuan Li ,&nbsp;Yuehan Luo ,&nbsp;Tianliang Zhao ,&nbsp;Kai Meng ,&nbsp;Qingjian Yang ,&nbsp;Kai Yang ,&nbsp;Yuxiang Jin ,&nbsp;Zhen Lu ,&nbsp;Deyang Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108826","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108826","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The mid-latitude cut-off low substantially influences air quality through stratospheric O₃ intrusions, however, its spatially extensive impacts on ambient O₃ and the associated diverse pathways remain insufficiently understood. Therefore, this study addresses this knowledge gap by integrating observational and simulation data for the Northeast Cold Vortex (NECV), a typical cut-off low over East Asia during April 15–18, 2020, to explore the mechanism underlying NECV-associated near-surface O₃ increases over Eastern China (EC). During the southeastward NECV progression, near-surface O₃ levels increased across the broad EC region spanning mid- to low-latitudes. When the NECV was centered near the EC coastline along the Pacific, near-surface O₃ rose by 40–60 μg·m⁻³ over northern, central and southern EC, corresponding to relative increases of 29.76%, 17.29%, and 47.49%, respectively. The deep subsidence at the NECV periphery drove the downward transport of stratospheric O₃ into the troposphere over northern EC. Concurrently, the NECV interacted with the westward-expanded Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), generating a convergence zone over central EC between northwesterly and southwesterly flows that accumulated transported O₃ and enhanced near-surface O₃ levels in central EC. In southern EC, anticyclonic anomalies developed due to the westward WPSH extension led to clear-sky conditions with stronger incoming solar radiation and consequently intensified photochemical O₃ production. Collectively, the results demonstrate a synergistic meteorological mechanism of the NECV-associated near-surface O₃ enhancements, comprising three coupled pathways: stratospheric intrusion (SI), horizontal transport, and photochemical production. These findings contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the environmental implications of the cut-off low and support efforts to refine O₃ pollution control strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"335 ","pages":"Article 108826"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146110718","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Three-dimensional dust distribution and transport over the northern hemisphere dust belt: Insights from lidar observations","authors":"Ruiqi Tan ,&nbsp;Tianhe Wang ,&nbsp;Ying Han ,&nbsp;Jingtao Li ,&nbsp;Jingyi Tang ,&nbsp;Sichen Wang ,&nbsp;Ali Mamtimin ,&nbsp;Fan Yang ,&nbsp;Chenglong Zhou ,&nbsp;Bakhriddin E. Nishonov ,&nbsp;Mansur O. Amonov ,&nbsp;Sabur F. Abdullaev","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108824","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108824","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Northern Hemisphere dust belt (NHDB) is a critical region for dust emission and transport, significantly influencing global climate and environmental systems. However, a comprehensive three-dimensional understanding of its dust distribution and transport structure has been limited. This study quantitatively characterizes the vertical profiles of dust mass concentration (DMC), horizontal dust transport flux rate (DFR), and dust mass flux divergence (DFD) over the NHDB by synergistically analyzing the CALIOP observations (2007–2016), the MERRA-2 reanalysis and DustCOMM dust property data. We reveal three key findings: (1) Central Asian deserts exhibit the highest dust uplift, with the top heights of their dust mass layers remaining above 4.5 km year-round and low-DMC (LDMC) layers persisting above 10 km, while North African and northern Arabian deserts show intermediate heights. Crucially, DMC for most sources does not decay exponentially with height, challenging conventional model parameterizations. (2) Dust transport exhibits complex vertical decoupling, in that monsoon-driven flows over South Asia cause dust transport direction to rotate with height, forming distinct stratified layers, while Central Asian deserts maintain stable southeastward transport toward the Tibetan Plateau. (3) The upper troposphere dust belt (UTDB) exhibits seasonally shifting uplifting regions—from the Arabian Peninsula, inland Central Asia, and the Mongolian Plateau in spring to the Tibetan Plateau especially in autumn and winter, with deposition zones migrating correspondingly from the North China Plain to southern China. These results provide critical observational constraints for improving the representation of dust vertical transport in climate models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"335 ","pages":"Article 108824"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146110722","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Observed aerosol properties and aerosol forecast evaluation in the Arctic region during cold air outbreaks","authors":"Lintong Cai ,&nbsp;Sunandan Mahant ,&nbsp;Emma Weissburg ,&nbsp;Anna M. Robertson ,&nbsp;Jefferson R. Snider ,&nbsp;Markus D. Petters","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108781","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108781","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Arctic aerosols play an important role in modulating high-latitude weather and climate. However, spatiotemporal aerosol distributions in the Arctic remain poorly quantified. Here, we present aerosol physicochemical properties observed during the Cold Air Outbreak Experiment in the Sub-Arctic Region (CAESAR) campaign. The airborne measurements covered a wide vertical range, from the near-surface to the free troposphere, across remote regions between Scandinavia and the coast of Greenland. A merged particle distribution product, spanning from 10 nm to 3 μm in diameter, was developed by combining a suite of five aerosol sensors. Number closure was achieved between the different instruments. Estimated aerosol concentration from the merged size distribution varied between ∼50 and ∼ 700 scm⁻³. Refractory black carbon mass concentrations (70–800 nm) varied between ∼0.9 and ∼ 80.4 ng sm⁻³. Aerosol mass concentration observations were compared to the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System composition forecast (GEOS-CF). The model concentrations correlated with the observations exhibit agreement with the spatial and temporal distribution of localized black carbon aerosol plumes. During Research Flight (RF) 09, the black carbon mass concentration model-vs-observation Pearson correlation coefficient <em>r</em> is 0.84. Observed fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) were significantly larger than the model concentrations within the marine boundary layer (MBL). The high observed PM_2.5 concentrations were due to coarse mode aerosol, suggesting that the model did not accurately capture sea-spray production. Over the study domain, the median normalized mean bias (NMB) was −2454% and the normalized mean root square error (NMRSE) was 35% for PM_2.5; and 1372% (10,619%) and 90% (177%) for refractory black carbon within the marine boundary layer (free troposphere), respectively. The dataset and data/model intercomparison provide new constraints for understanding aerosol properties in the Arctic region.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"335 ","pages":"Article 108781"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145995758","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dual moisture sources and thermodynamic controls on precipitation stable isotopes in Kunming, southwest China","authors":"Niranjan Adhikari ,&nbsp;Lide Tian ,&nbsp;Xuejie Wang ,&nbsp;Zhangfei Ding ,&nbsp;Di Wang ,&nbsp;Zhongyin Cai ,&nbsp;Yiliang Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108786","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108786","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Although Yunnan, located in southwestern China, is recognized as a transitional zone between the Indian Summer Monsoon and the East Asian Monsoon, the extent to which distinct moisture sources and associated transport pathways influence precipitation isotopic variability in this region remains poorly quantified. Here, we analyzed a four-and-a-half-year precipitation isotope dataset from Kunming and differentiated between precipitation sourced from the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and the South China Sea (SCS). We observe a strong seasonal δ¹⁸O contrast of 7.4‰ in BoB-sourced precipitation, which accounts for ∼61% of the moisture supply for Kunming precipitation. In contrast, SCS-sourced precipitation exhibits a weak seasonality of only 1.8‰ in δ¹⁸O. Our analysis indicates that seasonal changes of evaporative conditions in BoB source and upstream meteorology along its transport path produce this pattern, while relatively stable SCS source and transport conditions result in minimal seasonal variability. Simulation results demonstrate that SCS-sourced δ¹⁸O largely follows Rayleigh distillation, whereas BoB-sourced δ¹⁸O deviates from this simple model, indicating the influence of additional processes. We further find that the tropospheric temperature gradient is a key thermodynamic driver of precipitation δ¹⁸O, showing a persistent negative correlation across seasons and moisture sources. In addition, precipitation d-excess responds differently to the two moisture sources. D-excess in BoB-sourced precipitation partially reflects source-region and transport-path conditions, while SCS-sourced precipitation shows no such consistent relationships. Overall, this work quantifies the distinct isotopic fingerprints of these two major moisture sources to southwestern China, providing an advance for modeling regional water cycles and interpreting isotopic paleoclimate archives.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"335 ","pages":"Article 108786"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146006386","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Investigating the predictability limit and forecast error dynamics of summer air temperatures over East Asia using the ensemble forecast dataset from ECMWF","authors":"Xuan Li ,&nbsp;Xinyue Zhang ,&nbsp;Ruiqiang Ding ,&nbsp;Jianping Li ,&nbsp;Xiaowei Huai","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108834","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108834","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate weather forecasts are important to society and to the economy. However, the extent to which surface air temperature (SAT) can be reliably predicted remains largely unknown. The nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent (NLLE) method takes account of nonlinearity, which governs the evolution of initial error growths in chaotic systems such as the atmosphere and ocean. Using the NLLE method and the ensemble forecasts of summer SAT derived from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 2009 to 2018, the upper limit of atmospheric predictability can be quantitatively estimated. This study directly applies the NLLE method to explore the upper limit of summer SAT predictability at a synoptic timescale over East Asia (EA). We investigate the upper limit and error growth dynamics for summer SAT over all EA and separately over northern EA (NEA) and southern EA (SEA). Our results show that the upper predictability limits for summer SAT over EA, NEA, and SEA are all 12 days, but there are different error growth dynamics in NEA and SEA. Considering a 15-day forecast period, we found that forecast error growths and rates are larger for SEA than for NEA during the early period, whereas the reverse is true during the later forecast period. Forecast error growths and rates over NEA and SEA also have different spatial structures. Smaller forecast error growths and lower rates occur mainly in western and northern regions of NEA throughout the forecast time, whereas southern regions of SEA have smaller forecast error growths and lower rates than northern regions. Our results will have practical guiding significance for the operational forecasts over EA.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"335 ","pages":"Article 108834"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146110716","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluation of WRF-simulated raindrop size distributions using disdrometer observations across eastern and southern China","authors":"Qiqi Yang ,&nbsp;Lin Zhang ,&nbsp;Wenqin Cai ,&nbsp;Lei Wu ,&nbsp;Yiheng Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108789","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108789","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study evaluates the performance and associated uncertainties in Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model-simulated drop size distribution (DSD) using three microphysics schemes—Thompson aerosol-aware (Thompson), WDM6, and Morrison—across 138 rainfall events in eastern and southern China. Ground-based disdrometer observations were used to assess model performance under varying rain rates, precipitation types, and regional climates. Unlike prior single-event evaluations, this multi-station, multi-scheme analysis provides a comprehensive assessment of model biases and spread in key precipitation relationships, including the normalized intercept parameter versus mass-weighted mean diameter (<span><math><msub><mi>log</mi><mn>10</mn></msub><msub><mi>N</mi><mi>w</mi></msub></math></span>–<span><math><msub><mi>D</mi><mi>m</mi></msub></math></span>), <span><math><msub><mi>D</mi><mi>m</mi></msub></math></span> versus rain rate (<span><math><msub><mi>D</mi><mi>m</mi></msub></math></span>–<em>R</em>), radar reflectivity versus rain rate (<em>Z</em>–<em>R</em>), and rainfall kinetic energy density versus rain rate (<span><math><msub><mi>KE</mi><mi>v</mi></msub></math></span>–<em>R</em>). Results show that WRF simulations exhibited systematic overestimations of <span><math><msub><mi>D</mi><mi>m</mi></msub></math></span> and underestimations of <span><math><msub><mi>log</mi><mn>10</mn></msub><msub><mi>N</mi><mi>w</mi></msub></math></span>, which propagated to biases in <em>Z</em> and <span><math><msub><mi>KE</mi><mi>v</mi></msub></math></span>, with deviations up to 25% and 50%, respectively, under high rain rates. Among the schemes, Morrison outperformed other schemes for stratiform rain, while Thompson better captured convective events. Regional variability further modulated performance: Changchun's frontal systems and Xiamen's maritime climate induced distinct microphysical biases. These findings offer novel insights into microphysics scheme behavior and its cascading impacts on radar-based rainfall retrievals and hydrological modeling. The results highlight the need for integrating observational datasets and applying region-specific calibrations to improve DSD simulations in data-scarce regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"335 ","pages":"Article 108789"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146006416","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"AdaBoost-based satellite detection of summer daytime sea fog and low clouds in ice floe fields of the Arctic","authors":"Huiyun Ma ,&nbsp;Jiedong Liu ,&nbsp;Zengwei Liu ,&nbsp;Huihui Feng ,&nbsp;Guannan Li ,&nbsp;Runxi Gu","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108775","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108775","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Under the trend of global warming, the Arctic region has experienced increasing warming and accelerating melting of sea ice, resulting in the opening of Arctic shipping routes with significant navigational potential. However, intense water vapor releases and a cold underlying surface can lead to frequent occurrences of sea fog and low clouds over the Arctic ice surfaces. Conducting detection of sea fog and low clouds is therefore highly important for ensuring the safety of Arctic shipping routes. In this study, a satellite detection algorithm for summer daytime sea fog and low clouds in ice floe fields of the Arctic has been proposed using the time series remote sensing data from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the AdaBoost method. Methodologically, three spectral indices, the normalized difference sea-water index (NDSWI), the sea-ice recognition index (SIRI), and the mid-high-cloud recognition index (MHCRI), are first constructed by analyzing the variations in reflection spectra for sea fog and low clouds, sea ice, sea water, and mid-high clouds. Additionally, three texture features, namely, the homogeneity, contrast, and entropy, of the brightness temperature at 11.030 μm (BT_{11.030 μm}) are calculated using the gray-level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM). Subsequently, a strong learner classification model of the AdaBoost ensemble learning algorithm was built by adopting the samples of the spectral indices and texture features above and the weak learner of the decision. Finally, the residual mid-high clouds are removed through the threshold at BT_{11.030 μm}. Verification indicated that the probability of detection (POD), false alarm rate (FAR), and critical success index (CSI) values were 84.44%, 9.45%, and 77.52%, respectively. This research supports the accurate detection of sea fog and low clouds in the Arctic, thereby ensuring safe navigation of Arctic shipping routes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"335 ","pages":"Article 108775"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145961775","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global monsoon variability in a 1.5 °C warming climate: Observational changes and end-century projections","authors":"Ricky Anak Kemarau ,&nbsp;Zulfaqar Sa'adi ,&nbsp;Najeebullah Khan ,&nbsp;Bassim Mohammed Hashim ,&nbsp;Leonardo Goliatt ,&nbsp;Sajjad Firas Abdulameer ,&nbsp;Zaher Mundher Yaseen ,&nbsp;Shamsuddin Shahid","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108765","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108765","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Monsoon systems underpin the water, food, and economic security of over two-thirds of the global population, yet they are entering a state of instability as global temperatures have now surpassed +1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. This crossing of the 1.5 °C threshold raises a critical problem: Are monsoon onset, duration, and extreme rainfall already shifting in detectable, regionally differentiated ways? Using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) 2020 framework, we screened 784 peer-reviewed studies (2000–2024) and synthesized 72 high-quality articles. A complementary global diagnostic using Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS; 1981–2024) ensured uniform comparison across monsoon regions. Results reveal onset shifts of ±15 days, rainfall-intensity increases of +10–60%, and duration changes of ±15 days, with the strongest signals in South Asia, East Asia, the Western North Pacific, and Southeast Asia. Attribution using CMIP5/CMIP6, ERA5, TRMM, GPM, and IMERG identifies El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), sea-surface temperature anomalies, and greenhouse-gas (GHG)–aerosol interactions as dominant drivers. Although seasonal totals often change modestly, clustering of extremes and lengthening dry spells markedly elevate compound flood–drought risk. This review establishes the first harmonized global baseline of observed monsoon change and highlights urgent needs for convection-permitting regional models, improved subseasonal prediction, expanded observational networks, and increased representation of African and South American monsoon systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"335 ","pages":"Article 108765"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145961780","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}