Atmospheric Research最新文献_第5页

Uncertainty decomposition and quantification of seasonal precipitation forecasting based on Bayesian neural networks 基于贝叶斯神经网络的季节性降水预报不确定性分解与量化

IF 5.5 2区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Atmospheric Research

Pub Date : 2026-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108815

Enzo Pinheiro, Taha B.M.J. Ouarda

引用次数: 0

Observational analysis of absorbing and non-absorbing aerosol effects on heavy rainfall in southwestern Iran 伊朗西南部强降雨中吸收和非吸收气溶胶效应的观测分析

IF 4.4 2区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Atmospheric Research

Pub Date : 2026-01-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108796

Zakiyeh Alibeygi, Maryam Gharaylou, Abbasali AliAkbari Bidokhti

Understanding the impact of aerosols on heavy precipitation is crucial for improving predictions and management of atmospheric processes. Heavy convective precipitation often occurs within a few hours, making the investigation of aerosol influences on daily precipitation variability particularly important. In this study, heavy rainfall events in southwestern Iran were identified using ERA5 data alongside aerosol measurements from two satellite sources and the EAC4 reanalysis dataset. These datasets enabled analysis of aerosol optical depth (AOD), differentiation of aerosol types, and assessment of additional aerosol-related indices in the region. Two indices were used to classify clean and polluted conditions at macro- and micro-scales: AOD as a large-scale indicator, and cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) as a small-scale indicator. The 25th and 75th percentiles of these indices over all rainy days were used as thresholds for clean and polluted conditions. Four aerosol types common in southwestern Iran were examined: black carbon (BC) and dust as radiatively absorbing aerosols, and sulfate and sea salt as non-absorbing aerosols. Analysis revealed three key features of daily heavy precipitation variability associated with aerosol types. Under polluted conditions defined by AOD, precipitation onset and peak occurred earlier, but event duration was shorter. In contrast, under polluted conditions defined by CDNC, precipitation started earlier but peaked later, with a longer duration. Furthermore, absorbing aerosols were associated with earlier onset and delayed peaks, whereas non-absorbing aerosols corresponded to delayed onset and extended precipitation duration. These findings highlight the distinct roles of aerosol types in modulating heavy rainfall characteristics.

了解气溶胶对强降水的影响对改善大气过程的预测和管理至关重要。强对流降水经常在几小时内发生，因此研究气溶胶对日降水变率的影响尤为重要。在这项研究中，利用ERA5数据以及来自两个卫星来源和EAC4再分析数据集的气溶胶测量数据，确定了伊朗西南部的强降雨事件。这些数据集有助于分析该地区气溶胶光学深度（AOD）、气溶胶类型的区分以及评估其他气溶胶相关指数。采用两个指标对宏观和微观尺度上的清洁和污染状况进行分类：AOD作为大尺度指标，云滴数浓度（CDNC）作为小尺度指标。在所有雨天，这些指数的第25和第75百分位数被用作清洁和污染条件的阈值。研究了伊朗西南部常见的四种气溶胶类型：黑碳（BC）和灰尘是辐射吸收气溶胶，硫酸盐和海盐是非吸收气溶胶。分析揭示了与气溶胶类型相关的日强降水变率的三个关键特征。在以AOD定义的污染条件下，降水开始时间和峰值时间较早，但持续时间较短。相比之下，在CDNC定义的污染条件下，降水开始较早，峰值较晚，持续时间较长。此外，吸收性气溶胶与较早的峰期和较晚的峰期有关，而非吸收性气溶胶与较晚的峰期和较长的降水持续时间有关。这些发现突出了气溶胶类型在调节强降雨特征中的独特作用。

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引用次数: 0

Influence of aerosols and clouds on diffuse radiation under complex sky conditions based on MFRSR 基于MFRSR的复杂天空条件下气溶胶和云层对漫射辐射的影响

IF 5.5 2区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Atmospheric Research

Pub Date : 2026-01-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108808

Huaping Li, Yaxin Wang, Ming Zhang, Lunche Wang, Chen Yuan

引用次数: 0

South Pacific Convergence Zone driven atmospheric river changes over Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica: Observational and CESM2 LENS2 evidence 南太平洋辐合带驱动的南极drning Maud地大气河流变化：观测和CESM2 LENS2证据

IF 4.4 2区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Atmospheric Research

Pub Date : 2026-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108794

Qingli Wu, Yetang Wang, Zhaosheng Zhai, Min Zhou

Atmospheric river (AR) landfalls profoundly impact Antarctic snowfall accumulation, surface melting and ice shelf calving/collapse. However, comprehensive case studies are still required to better understand AR changes and their underlying mechanisms. Here, we use ERA5 reanalysis and Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) ensembles to examine the spatial distribution and long-term trends of Antarctic ARs during 1979–2022, and also investigate the mechanisms behind it by distinguishing between dynamic and thermodynamic effects. Reanalysis shows a strong increase in annual AR frequency over Dronning Maud Land (DML) in Antarctica during 1979–2022, predominantly driven by dynamical processes. Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) strongly modulate AR intensification over DML by enhancing convection and exciting a Rossby wave train, which deepens the Weddell Sea cyclone anomaly and amplifies downstream high-pressure ridges. Fingerprinting experiments with the 50-member CESM2 ensemble confirm the pivotal role of internal Pacific variability in reproducing observed AR trends. These results highlight the importance of accurately representing SPCZ SST variability for understanding the mechanisms driving Antarctic AR changes.

大气河（AR）登陆对南极降雪积累、地表融化和冰架崩解/崩塌产生深远影响。然而，仍然需要全面的案例研究来更好地了解AR的变化及其潜在机制。本文利用ERA5再分析和群落地球系统模式2 （CESM2）整体数据分析了1979-2022年南极ARs的空间分布和长期趋势，并通过区分动力效应和热力学效应探讨了其背后的机制。再分析表明，在1979-2022年期间，南极干旱毛德地（DML）的年AR频率显著增加，主要是由动力过程驱动的。南太平洋辐合带（SPCZ）海温异常通过增强对流和激发罗斯比波列，强烈调节了DML上空的AR增强，从而加深了威德尔海气旋异常，放大了下游高压脊。50个成员CESM2集合的指纹实验证实了太平洋内部变率在再现观测到的AR趋势方面的关键作用。这些结果强调了准确表示spccz海温变率对于理解驱动南极AR变化的机制的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Characteristics of summer typhoon activities over China during 2020–2022 and their relationships with the Triple La Niña events 2020-2022年中国夏季台风活动特征及其与三重La Niña事件的关系

IF 5.5 2区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Atmospheric Research

Pub Date : 2026-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108798

Qing-Bo Zeng, Ying Wang, Rong-Hua Zhang

引用次数: 0

Source apportionment and health risk assessment of PM10-bound organic aerosols in urban South Korea: Insights from n-alkanes, PAHs, hopanes, and steranes 韩国城市pm10结合有机气溶胶的来源分析和健康风险评估：来自正构烷烃、多环芳烃、藿烷和甾烷的见解

IF 4.4 2区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Atmospheric Research

Pub Date : 2026-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108791

Md. Mozammel Haque , Suresh K.R. Boreddy , Jinsang Jung , Kimitaka Kawamura

Aerosols, one of the principal atmospheric pollutants, are receiving significant attention from the scientific community due to their impact on human health and climate. Despite the carcinogenicity of PAHs, the contributions of their sources to the urban atmosphere remain unclear. The present study examines the molecular distribution and source indices of various non-polar organic compounds, including n-alkanes, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), hopanes, and steranes, in PM₁₀ samples collected in Daejeon, South Korea, from 15 April to 22 May 2013 using the thermal desorption gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (TD-GC/MS). The molecular distribution of n-alkanes was characterized by the predominance of C₂₉, followed by C₂₇. The total concentrations of n-alkanes exhibited strong positive correlations with elemental carbon (EC) and potassium ion (K⁺), indicating a significant contribution from fossil fuel combustion and biomass-burning sources. Among the PAHs, indeno[1,2,3-cd]pyrene (IcdP) and dibenzo[a,h]anthracene (DahA) were the most prevalent compounds. The dominant hopanoid hydrocarbon was 17a(H),21b(H)-hopane (30ab), while 17b(H),21a(H)-hopane (30ba) was least abundant. During the sampling period, sterane compounds exhibited a higher concentration of C₂₇ compared to C₂₉. Based on the diagnostic ratios and source-specific markers, the present study revealed that coal combustion, biomass burning, and vehicular emissions were predominant sources of PAHs during spring. Positive matrix factorisation (PMF) analysis showed that in Daejeon, total PAHs were mainly from biomass and coal combustion (74%), followed by vehicle emissions (14%) and natural gas combustion (12%). Further, an inverse relationship has been found between PAH concentrations and air temperature; i.e., higher levels of PAHs correspond to lower temperatures, which could have significant implications for air quality and public health. The findings of this study offer valuable insights into the sources of organic compounds, which are highly carcinogenic, and can inform policymakers in developing effective air quality monitoring and mitigation strategies.

气溶胶是主要的大气污染物之一，由于其对人类健康和气候的影响，正受到科学界的极大关注。尽管多环芳烃具有致癌性，但其来源对城市大气的贡献尚不清楚。本研究利用热解吸气相色谱/质谱（TD-GC/MS）分析了2013年4月15日至5月22日在韩国大田采集的PM10样品中各种非极性有机化合物的分子分布和来源指数，包括正构烷烃、多环芳烃（PAHs）、藿烷和甾烷。正构烷烃的分子分布以C29为主，其次为C27。正构烷烃的总浓度与元素碳（EC）和钾离子（K+）呈强正相关，表明化石燃料燃烧和生物质燃烧源对正构烷烃的贡献很大。多环芳烃中，吲哚[1,2,3-cd]芘（IcdP）和二苯并[a，h]蒽（DahA）是最常见的化合物。以17a(H)、21b(H)-藿烷（30ab）为主，17b(H)、21a(H)-藿烷（30ba）最少。在取样期间，甾烷化合物中C27的浓度高于C29。基于诊断比率和源特异性标记，本研究表明，煤炭燃烧、生物质燃烧和车辆排放是春季多环芳烃的主要来源。正矩阵分解（PMF）分析结果表明，大田地区的多环芳烃主要来自生物质和煤炭燃烧（74%），其次是汽车排放（14%）和天然气燃烧（12%）。此外，多环芳烃浓度与气温呈反比关系；也就是说，多环芳烃含量越高，温度越低，这可能对空气质量和公众健康产生重大影响。这项研究的结果为了解高度致癌的有机化合物的来源提供了宝贵的见解，并可为决策者制定有效的空气质量监测和缓解战略提供信息。

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引用次数: 0

Synergistic effects of IOD and ENSO on autumn near-surface wind speed variability across the Asian monsoon regions IOD和ENSO对亚洲季风区秋季近地面风速变异的协同效应

IF 4.4 2区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Atmospheric Research

Pub Date : 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108800

Wentian Qiu , Kaiqiang Deng , Lianlian Xu , Xi Chen , Jiayi Nie

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are important sources of interannual predictability in the tropical oceans. While the IOD and ENSO can exert significant impacts on global temperature and precipitation, their influence on near-surface wind speed (NSWS) in the Asian monsoon region remains unclear. This study explores how IOD and ENSO synergistically affect the NSWS variability over South and East Asia in autumn, a season characterized by peak IOD intensity and rapidly developing ENSO. The results indicate that IOD predominantly influences the NSWS variations in the tropical Indian Ocean and northern China, while ENSO has a stronger effect over southern China. Concurrent positive IOD and El Niño events generate high-pressure anomalies over the Bay of Bengal and the western Pacific, which induce easterly anomalies over the equatorial Indian Ocean and southwesterly anomalies over southern China, leading to significant NSWS reductions in both areas. In contrast, negative IOD and La Niña events produce low-pressure anomalies over the tropical oceans, resulting in an enhanced NSWS over the equatorial Indian Ocean and southern China. Furthermore, positive IOD events are suggested to weaken the NSWS in northern China by triggering northeastward-propagating Rossby waves, which induce barotropic anticyclonic circulation anomalies over northeastern China and southeasterly wind anomalies over northern China, causing declined NSWS in this area. These findings advance our understanding of the interannual variability in the NSWS across Asian monsoon region, providing valuable insights for interannual predictions of the regional wind climate and the renewable wind energy.

印度洋偶极子（IOD）和厄尔尼诺Niño-Southern涛动（ENSO）是热带海洋年际可预测性的重要来源。虽然IOD和ENSO对全球气温和降水有显著影响，但它们对亚洲季风区近地面风速的影响尚不清楚。本研究探讨了IOD和ENSO如何协同影响南亚和东亚地区秋季的NSWS变率，这是一个IOD强度峰值和ENSO快速发展的季节。结果表明，IOD主要影响热带印度洋和中国北部的NSWS变化，而ENSO对中国南部的影响更强。同时发生的IOD正事件和El Niño事件在孟加拉湾和西太平洋产生高压异常，引起赤道印度洋偏东异常和华南偏西南异常，导致这两个地区的NSWS显著减少。相反，负IOD和La Niña事件在热带海洋上空产生低压异常，导致赤道印度洋和中国南部的NSWS增强。此外，IOD正事件通过触发向东北传播的Rossby波减弱了中国北方的NSWS，而Rossby波引起中国东北的正压反气旋环流异常和中国北方的东南风异常，导致该地区NSWS减弱。这些发现促进了我们对亚洲季风区NSWS年际变化的认识，为区域风气候和可再生风能的年际预测提供了有价值的见解。

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引用次数: 0

A Bayesian model for blending satellite precipitation estimates to enhance drought monitoring in poorly gauged regions 混合卫星降水估计的贝叶斯模型，以加强在测量不佳地区的干旱监测

IF 4.4 2区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Atmospheric Research

Pub Date : 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108799

Vinícius de Matos Brandão Raposo, André Ferreira Rodrigues, Veber Afonso Figueiredo Costa

Droughts are among society's most damaging climatic disasters, representing a complex phenomenon in which precipitation plays a central role. In poorly gauged regions, precipitation estimates from remote sensing have been widely employed. However, these data often exhibit bias and may not accurately depict the spatiotemporal variability of the rainfall processes. To address these problems, this study aims to propose a novel prediction model to enhance the reliability of rainfall estimates in poorly gauged regions by utilizing a Bayesian approach to blend multiple Satellite Precipitation Estimates (SPEs). CHIRPSv2, IMERG V06, and CMORPH were the selected SPEs for building the blending model, which was applied to estimate monthly rainfall data in the Doce River catchment and the mid-lower portion of the São Francisco River catchment, both in Brazil. Comparative analyses between rainfall gauging data and the SPEs, as well as the blending model, unveiled the enhanced performance of the new precipitation estimates, demonstrating consistently lower values for RMSE, NRMSE, and PBIAS in both study areas. We also assessed the ability of the SPEs and the blending model to capture drought conditions across different aggregation scales of the Standardized Precipitation Index (1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months). Regarding the number of drought months and magnitudes accurately identified, the blending model consistently achieved better performance from SPI-1 to SPI-9, but was outperformed at SPI-12 by different SPEs. Overall, despite its increased complexity, this approach can be effective for drought characterization in regions with sparse monitoring and further hydrological applications on a monthly scale.

干旱是社会最具破坏性的气候灾害之一，是一种复杂的现象，其中降水起着核心作用。在测量差的地区，已广泛采用遥感估算的降水。然而，这些数据往往表现出偏差，可能不能准确地描述降雨过程的时空变化。为了解决这些问题，本研究旨在提出一种新的预测模型，利用贝叶斯方法混合多个卫星降水估计（spe），以提高测量差地区降雨估计的可靠性。选取CHIRPSv2、IMERG V06和CMORPH作为构建混合模型的spe，将混合模型用于估计巴西多塞河流域和奥弗朗西斯科河流域中下游的月降雨量数据。通过对降水测量数据与SPEs以及混合模型的对比分析，揭示了新的降水估计的增强性能，表明两个研究区域的RMSE、NRMSE和PBIAS值始终较低。我们还评估了SPEs和混合模型在标准化降水指数（1、3、6、9和12个月）不同聚集尺度上捕获干旱条件的能力。对于准确识别的干旱月数和震级，混合模型在SPI-1到SPI-9的表现一致较好，但在SPI-12的表现被不同的spe所优于。总的来说，尽管这种方法增加了复杂性，但在监测较少的地区和进一步的月度水文应用中，这种方法可以有效地描述干旱特征。

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引用次数: 0

How Saharan dust and elevated convection can produce negative dipole charge structure ? 撒哈拉沙尘和高对流如何产生负偶极子电荷结构？

IF 4.4 2区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Atmospheric Research

Pub Date : 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108783

Gabriel Hausknost , Sylvain Coquillat , Dominique Lambert , Stéphane Pédeboy , Pierre de Guibert , Eric Gonneau

The LMA network SAETTA has observed thunderstorms from 2014 to 2023. During this period, 54 thunderstorm days with negative dipole charge structures were observed during African dust flow events over the Corsica island, mainly during the warm season. The spatial and temporal distribution of thunderstorm days provided by SAETTA data shows nocturnal events with negative dipole charge structure, without preferential regions (even on land and on sea), while classic thunderstorms over Corsica with normal tripole charge structure occur mainly over mountains in the daytime. In the case of negative dipole events, METEORAGE data show more intense and frequent +CG lightning flashes than classical thunderstorms, and 89.4% of -IC lightning flashes. Furthermore, ERA-5,reanalysis data and radiosonde data exhibit dry and warm low layers, with a temperature inversion near the surface, forcing the triggering of elevated convection. This observation could be a consequence of the radiative impact of Saharan dust. This study shows no evidence for the microphysical impact of aerosols, i.e. the multiplication of ice crystals despite supercooled water droplets. Meteorological data also exhibit intense wind speeds associated with negative dipole thunderstorms.

LMA网络SAETTA观测了2014年至2023年的雷暴。在此期间，科西嘉岛上的非洲沙尘事件共观测到54个具有负偶极子电荷结构的雷暴日，主要发生在暖季。SAETTA数据提供的雷暴日时空分布显示夜间事件具有负偶极子电荷结构，没有优先区域（即使在陆地和海上），而典型的科西嘉雷暴具有正常的三极子电荷结构，主要发生在白天的山区。在负偶极子事件的情况下，METEORAGE数据显示+CG闪电比经典雷暴更强烈和频繁，-IC闪电占89.4%。此外，ERA-5、再分析数据和探空数据显示低层干燥和温暖，地表附近有逆温，迫使触发高架对流。这一观测结果可能是撒哈拉沙尘辐射影响的结果。这项研究没有显示气溶胶的微物理影响的证据，即尽管有过冷的水滴，冰晶的增殖。气象资料也显示出与负偶极雷暴有关的强风速。

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引用次数: 0

Synoptic flow patterns and key factors controlling rapid intensification onset of tropical cyclones along the China coast 中国沿海热带气旋快速增强的天气流型及关键控制因素

IF 4.4 2区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Atmospheric Research

Pub Date : 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108795

Xiaomeng Li , Ruifen Zhan , Yuqing Wang , Fengxia Yan

Rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) near the China coast poses heightened risk because short lead times limit preparedness. Using ERA-Interim reanalysis, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission precipitation, and TC best-track data, we apply an obliquely rotated T-mode principal component analysis to classify synoptic environments for RI events and diagnose controlling factors with composites and a Box Difference Index. Four synoptic flow patterns emerge: (1) MSS: combined monsoon trough, subtropical high, and South Asian high; (2) MS: monsoon trough interacting with the subtropical high; (3) SH: subtropical-high-dominated; and (4) MW: monsoon trough with a southward-penetrating midlatitude westerly trough. Across regimes, RI is preceded by radius-of-maximum-wind contraction, increased TC fullness, and more axisymmetric inner-core precipitation. Further analyses show that MSS/MS feature reduced vertical wind shear and stronger low-level vorticity with enhanced precipitation; SH shows the weakest shear and strongest upper-level divergence as the ridge extends westward; MW favors already compact, intense storms that can withstand shear asymmetry tied to the midlatitude westerly trough. These results clarify how large-scale flow modulates RI onset near the China coast and suggest that combining synoptic-pattern recognition with environmental predictors can improve RI guidance for coastal warnings.

中国海岸附近的热带气旋快速增强（RI）带来了更高的风险，因为提前时间短限制了准备工作。利用ERA-Interim再分析、热带降雨测量任务降水和TC最佳轨迹数据，我们应用斜旋转t型主成分分析对RI事件的天气环境进行分类，并利用复合材料和箱差指数诊断控制因素。结果表明：(1)MSS为季风槽-副热带高压-南亚高压组合；(2) MS：季风槽与副热带高压相互作用；(3) SH：副热带-高原为主；(4) MW：季风槽带一个向南穿透的中纬度西风槽。在整个体系中，RI之前是最大风半径收缩，TC丰满度增加，以及更轴对称的内核降水。进一步分析表明，随着降水的增加，垂直风切变减少，低层涡度增强；随着高压脊向西延伸，SH表现为切变最弱、高层辐散最强；MW倾向于已经紧凑、强烈的风暴，这些风暴可以承受与中纬度西风槽相关的切变不对称。这些结果阐明了大尺度流如何调节中国沿海地区RI的发生，并表明将天气模式识别与环境预测相结合可以改善对海岸警报的RI指导。

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引用次数: 0