Atmospheric Research最新文献_第6页

High-resolution reconstruction and driving mechanism analysis of XCO2 over mainland China based on the GAM-Optuna-ERT model 基于GAM-Optuna-ERT模型的中国大陆XCO2高分辨率重建及驱动机制分析

IF 4.4 2区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Atmospheric Research

Pub Date : 2026-04-15 Epub Date: 2025-12-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108677

Yang Geng, Ning Du, Li Wang, Xiaodong Deng, Yujun Zuo, Ling Qian, Wenbo Zhu

Accurately monitoring atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations is essential for understanding the carbon cycle and formulating effective emission reduction policies. Although satellite remote sensing has achieved notable progress in retrieving column-averaged CO₂ (XCO₂), challenges such as data discontinuity and limited spatial resolution persist. To address these issues, we propose a novel spatiotemporal reconstruction framework—GAM-Optuna-ERT—which integrates the Generalized Additive Model (GAM), Extremely Randomized Trees (ERT), and the Bayesian hyperparameter optimization tool Optuna. GAM captures the temporal and spatial variation trends of XCO₂ and provides an initial background estimation; the ERT model effectively learns complex interactions among high-dimensional features to enhance prediction accuracy; Optuna automates hyperparameter tuning, thereby improving model robustness. Using OCO-2 satellite observations in conjunction with multi-source driving variables—including meteorological factors, vegetation indices, carbon emission inventories, and population density—we reconstruct monthly, seasonal, and annual XCO₂ distributions over mainland China from 2015 to 2020 at a spatial resolution of 0.05° × 0.05°. Validation against TCCON, WDCGG, and CAMS datasets demonstrates the model's high accuracy and stability. Furthermore, quantitative analysis using the Geodetector method reveals that the synergistic effects of vegetation photosynthesis and anthropogenic activities are key drivers of the spatial heterogeneity in XCO₂. This study provides a technical foundation for high-resolution XCO₂ reconstruction and offers strong support for carbon monitoring and policymaking under China's “dual carbon” strategy.

准确监测大气二氧化碳浓度对于理解碳循环和制定有效的减排政策至关重要。虽然卫星遥感在检索柱平均CO2 （XCO2）方面取得了显著进展，但数据不连续和空间分辨率有限等挑战仍然存在。为了解决这些问题，我们提出了一个新的时空重建框架——GAM-Optuna-ERT，它集成了广义可加模型（GAM）、极度随机树（ERT）和贝叶斯超参数优化工具Optuna。GAM捕获了XCO2的时空变化趋势，并提供了初始背景估计；ERT模型有效地学习了高维特征之间复杂的相互作用，提高了预测精度；Optuna自动进行超参数调优，从而提高模型的鲁棒性。利用OCO-2卫星观测数据，结合气象因子、植被指数、碳排放清单和人口密度等多源驱动变量，以0.05°× 0.05°的空间分辨率重建了2015 - 2020年中国大陆地区XCO2的月、季、年分布。对TCCON、WDCGG和CAMS数据集的验证表明，该模型具有较高的准确性和稳定性。此外，利用Geodetector方法进行的定量分析表明，植被光合作用和人为活动的协同效应是XCO2空间异质性的关键驱动因素。本研究为高分辨率XCO2重建提供了技术基础，为中国“双碳”战略下的碳监测和政策制定提供了有力支持。

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引用次数: 0

Assimilating FY-4B satellite aerosol data to improve PM₂.₅ and surface shortwave radiation prediction 利用FY-4B卫星气溶胶资料改善PM 2。5、表面短波辐射预测

IF 4.4 2区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Atmospheric Research

Pub Date : 2026-04-15 Epub Date: 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108764

Fangzheng Hu , Feiyue Mao , Yi Zhang , Jia Hong , Lin Zang , Zhaoliang Zeng , Sicong Lin , Wei Gong , Daniel Rosenfeld

Aerosols significantly impact solar radiation forecasts, but substantial uncertainties persist in numerical models due to inadequate aerosol representation. This study develops a data assimilation framework integrating hourly surface-level particulate matter (PM₂.₅) retrievals from the FY-4B geostationary satellite into the WRF-Chem model with solar radiation diagnostics via the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) system. Assimilation experiments conducted over central and eastern China in November 2022 demonstrate marked improvements in PM₂.₅ forecasts, with correlation coefficients increasing from 0.39 to 0.82, and root mean square error (RMSE) decreasing by approximately 45%. Improved aerosol initial conditions significantly reduce uncertainties in surface downward shortwave radiation (SWDOWN) predictions, lowering midday bias by over 50% and RMSE by roughly 40% across the domain. Consistent forecast enhancements were verified through spatiotemporal analyses across various pollution levels. These results highlight the practical value of assimilating hourly FY-4B PM₂.₅ retrievals for simultaneously improving air quality and solar radiation forecasts. The proposed assimilation approach offers a robust, replicable solution for near-real-time operational forecasting, thereby supporting photovoltaic energy planning and effective air quality management.

气溶胶显著影响太阳辐射预报，但由于气溶胶表征不足，数值模式存在很大的不确定性。本研究开发了一个数据同化框架，通过网格点统计插值（GSI）三维变分（3DVAR）系统，将每小时从FY-4B地球静止卫星获取的地表颗粒物质（PM₂.₅）整合到WRF-Chem模型中，并进行太阳辐射诊断。2022年11月在中国中东部地区进行的同化试验表明，PM 2有明显改善。₅预测，相关系数从0.39增加到0.82，均方根误差（RMSE）减少约45%。改善的气溶胶初始条件显著降低了地表向下短波辐射（SWDOWN）预测的不确定性，将整个区域的正午偏差降低了50%以上，RMSE降低了大约40%。通过对不同污染水平的时空分析，验证了预测的一致性增强。这些结果突出了每小时同化FY-4B PM 2的实用价值。5回收，同时改善空气质量和太阳辐射预报。所提出的同化方法为近实时运行预测提供了一个强大的、可复制的解决方案，从而支持光伏能源规划和有效的空气质量管理。

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引用次数: 0

Benchmarking and lightweight correction of daily near-surface air temperature products over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau 青藏高原日近地表气温产品的基准化和轻量校正

IF 4.4 2区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Atmospheric Research

Pub Date : 2026-04-15 Epub Date: 2026-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108784

Nan Zhou , Yao Xiao , Lin Zhao , Guojie Hu , Lingxiao Wang , Chong Wang , Ren Li , Guangyue Liu , Defu Zou , Xiangfei Li

Reliable near–surface air temperature (Ta) over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is critical for energy balance closure, cryosphere assessment, and land–atmosphere modeling, yet complex relief and sparse gauges challenge gridded fields. We build a daily, lineage-spanning benchmark across 20 research-grade stations to evaluate five representative datasets—global land reanalysis, observation-conditioned regional fusions, and recent kilometer-scale, observation-based interpolations—under a unified collocation. Performance is stratified by eco-climatic zone (HI/HII), ground-thermal state (permafrost/seasonally frozen), and 500-m elevation bands. Observation-conditioned fields outperform the purely model-driven ERA5-Land reanalysis at the daily scale; the reanalysis shows a pervasive cold bias, strongest in HII winter. Elevation composites indicate rising R² and shrinking MAE from 3.0 to 4.5 km, with winter weakest seasonally. A lightweight two-stage correction—regime-aware height normalization (γ) followed by quantile mapping—cuts MAE by 0.5–2.0 °C and removes height-dependent cold bias. A unitless usability matrix translates multi-metric skill into scene-specific guidance by season–zone–elevation, offering an operational pathway to select and minimally correct TP Ta forcings transferable to other high-relief regions.

青藏高原上可靠的近地表气温（Ta）对能量平衡闭合、冰冻圈评估和陆地-大气模拟至关重要，但复杂的地形和稀疏测量对网格化场提出了挑战。我们建立了一个跨越20个研究级站点的每日基线，在统一的搭配下评估5个代表性数据集——全球土地再分析、观测条件下的区域融合和最近千米尺度的基于观测的插值。性能按生态气候带（HI/HII）、地热状态（永久冻土/季节性冻结）和500米海拔带分层。观测条件场在日尺度上优于纯模型驱动的ERA5-Land再分析；再分析显示普遍存在冷偏，在HII冬季最强。高程复合指数表明，在3.0 ~ 4.5 km范围内，R2上升，MAE缩小，冬季是最弱的季节。轻量级的两阶段校正模式感知高度归一化（γ），然后进行分位数映射，将MAE降低了0.5-2.0°C，并消除了高度相关的冷偏差。无单位可用性矩阵将多度量技能转化为季节-区域-海拔的场景特定指导，提供了一个可操作的途径来选择和最小限度地正确TP - Ta强迫转移到其他高地形区域。

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引用次数: 0

Unusual tropical cyclone looping tracks associated with monsoon gyre near an isolated high mountain 在一座孤立的高山附近，与季风环流有关的不寻常的热带气旋循环路径

IF 4.4 2区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Atmospheric Research

Pub Date : 2026-04-15 Epub Date: 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108761

Weihao Wang , Xuyang Ge , Melinda Peng

The processes on Tropical cyclones' (TCs) looping tracks (LTs) near an isolated terrain are investigated with numerical simulations. The large-scale environmental fields of observed TCs approaching Taiwan Island with and without LTs are compared. LT cases exhibit a monsoon gyre (MG)-like circulation on the southeast side of the TC, in contrast to the non-looping cases. This circulation serves as a key background difference of the two types of TC motions. Idealized simulations show that when a TC approaches the island's topography from the east, the channeling effect enhances the northerly flow, accelerating the TC southward. Meanwhile, the MG is blocked by the topography, preventing it from merging with the TC as it does in the absence of topography, contributing to a separation between their centers. As a result, the westerly flow from the southern flank of MG can subsequently steer the TC. Thereafter, the merger of MG and TC circulation completes the LT. In contrast, a TC in the absence of either an MG or topography only exhibits a southward or northward deflection, without undergoing a LT. This study highlights the interactions among the TC, MG and topography may induce unusual TC tracks.

用数值模拟方法研究了热带气旋在孤立地形附近的环流过程。比较了有LTs和没有LTs的TCs接近台湾岛的大尺度环境场。与非环流的案例相比，LT案例在TC的东南侧表现出季风环流（MG）样环流。这种环流是两种TC运动的关键背景差异。理想模拟结果表明，当热带风暴从东部接近岛屿地形时，通道效应增强了偏北气流，加速了热带风暴向南移动。与此同时，MG被地形阻挡，阻止了它与TC的合并，因为它在没有地形的情况下会这样做，从而导致它们中心之间的分离。因此，来自MG南侧的西风气流随后可以引导TC。此后，MG和TC环流的合并完成了lt。相比之下，没有MG或地形的TC只表现出向南或向北的偏转，而不会发生lt。本研究强调了TC、MG和地形之间的相互作用可能导致异常的TC轨迹。

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引用次数: 0

Associations between the thermal spring timing variability and atmospheric teleconnection patterns over the past six decades in Finland 芬兰近60年温泉时间变率与大气遥相关模式的关系

IF 4.4 2区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Atmospheric Research

Pub Date : 2026-04-15 Epub Date: 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108752

Sadegh Kaboli , Ville Kankare , Ali Torabi Haghighi , Cintia Bertacchi Uvo , Elina Kasvi

The timing of the spring season in the boreal region is shifting under global warming, with profound impacts on ecosystems and hydrological processes. However, the mechanisms driving this transition and its considerable interannual variability are not well described, especially regarding the influence of large-scale atmospheric teleconnection patterns. This study examines the temporal variability of the observed thermal spring season across Finland, a boreal country warming faster than the global average. Key spring timing indices, including onset, end, duration, and growing season onset, were calculated and analyzed using high-resolution (1 km × 1 km) daily mean temperature data from 1961 to 2023. Spatial and temporal patterns were identified through Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) decomposition, and their associations with major atmospheric teleconnection patterns were examined. Results indicated that during the past six decades, the spring onset has advanced by 2–6 days/decade, with the most pronounced changes in the coastal and southwestern parts of the country. The duration of the spring season has extended by 3–6 days/decade in the northern areas and along the southwestern coast. The early spring onset was associated with a strong positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and delayed spring end and growing season onset were linked to the positive phase of the East Atlantic–West Russia (EAWR) pattern. By contrast, an early growing season start was linked to the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The duration of the thermal spring season showed a strong association with the Scandinavian (SCA) pattern.

在全球变暖的影响下，北方地区春季的时间正在发生变化，对生态系统和水文过程产生了深远的影响。然而，驱动这种转变的机制及其相当大的年际变率没有得到很好的描述，特别是关于大尺度大气遥相关型态的影响。本研究考察了芬兰观测到的温泉季节的时间变异性，芬兰是一个比全球平均变暖速度更快的北方国家。利用1961 ~ 2023年高分辨率（1 km × 1 km）日平均气温资料，计算并分析了春季开始、结束、持续时间和生长季节开始等关键时间指标。通过经验正交函数（EOF）分解确定了时空格局，并分析了它们与主要大气遥相关格局的相关性。结果表明：近60 a来，春季开始时间以2 ~ 6 d / a的速度提前，沿海和西南地区变化最为显著；在北部地区和西南沿海，春季的持续时间每十年延长3-6天。早春与北极涛动（AO）强正相相关，晚春结束和生长期开始与东大西洋-西俄罗斯（EAWR）型正相相关。相比之下，生长季节的提前开始与北大西洋涛动（NAO）的正相位有关。温泉季节的持续时间与斯堪的纳维亚（SCA）模式有很强的相关性。

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引用次数: 0

Case study of aircraft icing in-cloud measurements and explicit supercooled water prediction in Eastern China 中国东部地区飞机结冰云中测量与显式过冷水预报实例研究

IF 4.4 2区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Atmospheric Research

Pub Date : 2026-04-15 Epub Date: 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108748

Liping Luo , Ming Xue , Xin Xu , Lin Deng , Junxia Li , Rong Zhang

In the morning of 12 November 2022, severe aircraft icing occurred over Anhui Province, Eastern China during weather modification operations. In-situ airborne measurements revealed the presence of a substantial concentration of supercooled droplets with effective diameter exceeding 45

μ

m, and liquid water content (LWC) above 1.2 g m⁻³ during the icing event.

Given the importance of microphysical parameterization (MP) scheme for icing conditions, simulations using different multi-moment MP schemes, i.e., WDM6, NSSL, Milbrandt-Yau (MY) schemes, are conducted at 1-km grid spacing for the case. Comparisons against satellite observations indicate that the general evolution of the frontal system and surface precipitation are well reproduced by the simulations. However, all simulations underpredict upper-level clouds with cloud-top temperature below 240 K over the northeastern part of the front. Besides, WDM6 scheme produces ice cloud-top area (CTA) closest to satellite observations but only produces approximately half of the observed CTA for supercooled cloud tops. The Milbrandt-Yau scheme shows superior performance in simulating the cloud top features during the icing event. Examinations of explicit supercooled cloud water (SCW) prediction skills indicate that WDM6 generates excessive total number concentration (Nt) of small SCW, with Nt reaching up to 10¹¹ m⁻³ and effective diameter (ED) below 20

μ

m. In contrast, the NSSL scheme produces significantly larger SCW particles but substantially lower Nt at approximately 10⁷ m⁻³ and ED of above 200

μ

m. Notably, the particle size distribution of SCW predicted by MY scheme is more realistic compared with in-situ aircraft measurements.

2022年11月12日上午，在人工影响天气作业期间，中国东部安徽省上空发生严重的飞机结冰。现场航空测量显示，在结冰过程中存在大量有效直径超过45 μm的过冷液滴，液态水含量（LWC）超过1.2 g m−3。考虑到微物理参数化（MP）方案对结冰条件的重要性，在1 km网格间距下，使用不同的多矩MP方案（即WDM6、NSSL、Milbrandt-Yau （MY）方案）进行模拟。与卫星观测结果的比较表明，模拟可以很好地再现锋面系统和地面降水的一般演变。然而，所有模拟都低估了锋面东北部云顶温度低于240 K的高层云。此外，WDM6方案产生的冰云顶面积（CTA）与卫星观测值最接近，但仅产生过冷云顶CTA的约一半。Milbrandt-Yau方案在模拟结冰过程中的云顶特征方面表现出优异的性能。对显式过冷云水（SCW）预测技术的检验表明，WDM6产生了过量的小SCW总数浓度（Nt）， Nt高达1011 m−3，有效直径（ED）低于20 μm。相比之下，NSSL方案产生更大的SCW颗粒，但在约107 m−3和ED大于200 μm时，Nt显著降低。值得注意的是，与现场飞机测量结果相比，MY方案预测的水样粒径分布更为真实。

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引用次数: 0

Gobi-sourced dust and dust–climate feedbacks in the March 2023 East Asian storm 2023年3月东亚风暴的戈壁沙尘和沙尘-气候反馈

IF 4.4 2区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Atmospheric Research

Pub Date : 2026-04-15 Epub Date: 2025-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108735

Shuna Liang , Bin Wang , Yurui Zhang , Junhua Yang , Ove W. Haugvaldstad , Hui Tang

Amid escalating climate change and environmental instability, understanding the origins, transport mechanisms, and climatic-environmental impacts of intensifying East Asian dust storms has become crucial for global sustainability science. However, current research still faces critical limitations with lacking city- or site-level resolution for source apportionment, and quantitative assessments of the climatic and environmental effects of severe dust events are still insufficient. Here, we integrated in situ measurements, reanalysis datasets, and numerical simulations to investigate the extreme East Asian dust storm in March 2023. Results indicated that the Gobi Desert was the dominant source, contributing approximately 74.9–94.6 % to PM₁₀ levels across four northern Chinese cities. Fine particles (2.5–5.0 μm) exhibited faster and higher-altitude transport than coarse particles (>7.5 μm), with consistent northwestward advection. Size-dependent deposition regimes emerged – dry deposition peaked for 7.5–10 μm particles, while wet deposition shifted from 5 to 7.5 μm in source regions to 2.5–5.0 μm in downwind North China. Crucially, we quantify the dust–climate feedback loop where aerosol-induced surface cooling by reducing surface solar radiation of 2.4–4.8 W m⁻², which in turn suppresses surface turbulent kinetic energy and decrease the boundary layer height up to 40 m. The enhanced boundary layer stability subsequently promoted futher dust accumulation. By elucidating this positive feedback mechanism, our study moves beyond established correlations to reveal a key process amplifying extreme dust storms, with critical implications for predicting their intensity and impacts under a changing climate.

在气候变化和环境不稳定加剧的背景下，了解东亚沙尘暴的起源、运输机制和气候环境影响已成为全球可持续发展科学的重要内容。然而，目前的研究仍然面临严重的局限性，缺乏城市或站点级别的来源分配分辨率，对严重沙尘事件的气候和环境影响的定量评估仍然不足。在此，我们综合了现场测量、再分析数据集和数值模拟，对2023年3月东亚极端沙尘暴进行了研究。结果表明，戈壁沙漠是主要来源，对中国北方4个城市PM10水平的贡献约为74.9 - 94.6%。细颗粒（2.5 ~ 5.0 μm）比粗颗粒（>7.5 μm）输运速度更快，输运高度更高，且具有一致的西北平流。干燥沉积的峰值为7.5 ~ 10 μm，而湿沉积的峰值在源区为5 ~ 7.5 μm，在华北顺风区为2.5 ~ 5.0 μm。至关重要的是，我们量化了尘埃-气候反馈回路，其中气溶胶通过减少地表太阳辐射2.4-4.8 W m−2来诱导地表冷却，这反过来又抑制了地表湍流动能并降低了边界层高度，最高可达40 m。边界层稳定性的增强随后促进了进一步的粉尘积累。通过阐明这种正反馈机制，我们的研究超越了既定的相关性，揭示了放大极端沙尘暴的关键过程，对预测其强度和气候变化下的影响具有重要意义。

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引用次数: 0

Different driving mechanisms during two consecutive flash heavy rainfalls over the Sichuan Basin in China: A case study 四川盆地两次连续暴雨的不同驱动机制

IF 4.4 2区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Atmospheric Research

Pub Date : 2026-04-15 Epub Date: 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108787

Changqing Liu , Jie Cao , Chengzhi Deng , Furong Qian

Two flash heavy rainfalls (FHRs) with short and extremely persistent durations during July 4–6, 2017 consecutively attacked the Sichuan Basin in China with breaking historical precipitation records. Based on multi-source precipitation datasets including rain gauge stations, satellite-based products, and reanalysis datasets, the two FHRs are thoroughly investigated in this study. High resolution numerical simulations are performed to analyze and compare the key mechanisms and diurnal characteristics between the two FHRs, together with other analytical techniques such as Barnes filtering and ageostrophic wind diagnostic equation. It is found that the precipitating event was dominated by combined effects of a low-level jet (LLJ) and the southwest vortex. Similarities and differences between the two FHRs are analyzed and concluded from the perspective of their key driving mechanisms. During the first FHR with short durations, geostrophic winds progressively intensified, while low-level southeasterlies underwent topographic convergence and uplifted over the northwestern basin. Under the background of weak geostrophic wind variations, the ageostrophic wind vector in the second FHR with extremely persistent durations exhibited pronounced clockwise diurnal rotation. Enhanced nocturnal southerlies poured moisture convergence into the basin, driving nighttime precipitation intensification. Steep basin-edge topography strengthened boundary layer friction (BLF) and intensified easterly ageostrophic winds. This deflection steered the LLJ southeastward, effectively channeling moisture into the storm area. Post-dawn enhancement of boundary layer friction increased ageostrophic moisture flux, slowing the precipitation decay rate. The inertial oscillation of ageostrophic winds critically governed the nocturnal enhancement and daytime suppression of rainfall by modulating moisture transport phases. Additionally, the post-dawn increase in boundary layer friction altered spatiotemporal configurations between ageostrophic winds and the LLJ, forming a key factor in precipitation process asymmetry.

2017年7月4日至6日，中国四川盆地连续遭遇两次短时间极持续强降雨（FHRs），并打破历史降水记录。基于雨量站、卫星产品和再分析数据等多源降水数据集，对两种fhr进行了深入研究。通过高分辨率数值模拟，结合Barnes滤波和地转风诊断方程等分析技术，分析和比较了两种fhr的主要机制和日特征。结果表明，此次降水事件主要受低空急流（LLJ）和西南涡旋的共同作用。本文从二者的关键驱动机制出发，对二者的异同进行了分析和总结。在持续时间较短的第一次FHR期间，地转风逐渐增强，低层东南风在盆地西北部进行地形辐合并抬升。在弱地转风变化的背景下，极持续时间的第2次FHR地转风矢量表现出明显的顺时针日旋转。夜间增强的南风使水汽辐合进入盆地，推动夜间降水增强。陡峭的盆地边缘地形加强了边界层摩擦，增强了偏东地转风。这种偏转使LLJ向东南方向移动，有效地将湿气输送到风暴区。黎明后边界层摩擦的增强增加了地转湿通量，减缓了降水衰减速率。地转风的惯性振荡通过调节水汽输送阶段对夜间降雨的增强和白天降雨的抑制起关键作用。此外，黎明后边界层摩擦的增加改变了地转风与LLJ之间的时空配置，形成了降水过程不对称的关键因素。

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引用次数: 0

Near-surface wind field characterization of medicanes using satellite observations 利用卫星观测的近地面风场特征

IF 4.4 2区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Atmospheric Research

Pub Date : 2026-04-15 Epub Date: 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108734

Stefano Sebastianelli, Leo Pio D'Adderio, Paolo Sanò, Daniele Casella, Giulia Panegrossi

MEDIterranean hurriCANES (Medicanes) represent a subcategory of Mediterranean cyclones that typically originate as extratropical systems then acquiring characteristics similar to tropical cyclones (TCs). These include the warm core, a nearly symmetric near-surface wind circulation, and eye-like features with spiraling rainbands. This study employs satellite scatterometer data to analyse ocean near-surface wind field in order to detect the rotational center by means the newly developed Medicane Rotational Center Automated Detection (MeRCAD) algorithm. As for TCs, the radius of maximum wind (RMW) is defined as the distance between the rotational center and the area of maximum wind. Results show a significant decrease in RMW, often down to a few tens of kilometres, when the wind field is featured by a nearly symmetric circulation. This allows wind features to be used as an indicator of the possible transition to the mature stage. We also found that the maximum sustained wind associated with the medicanes' mature phase is mostly beyond 95th percentile of values observed for all Mediterranean cyclones, although they appear substantially weaker than TCs. In addition, if the tropical transition occurs, the warm core is fueled by an area of deep convection that may be located near the rotational center at distances shorter than the RMW. However, the presence of an almost symmetrical wind circulation alone is insufficient to indicate the occurrence of the mature phase, due to the possible lack of a warm core. Vice versa, the warm core may occur without the characteristic nearly-symmetric wind circulation.

地中海飓风（Medicanes）是地中海气旋的一个子类，通常起源于温带系统，然后获得与热带气旋（tc）相似的特征。这些特征包括温暖的地核，近乎对称的近地表风环流，以及带有螺旋雨带的眼状特征。本研究利用卫星散射计数据分析海洋近地面风场，利用新开发的医学旋转中心自动检测（MeRCAD）算法检测海洋近地面风场的旋转中心。对于tc，最大风半径（RMW）定义为旋转中心到最大风区之间的距离。结果表明，当风场以近对称环流为特征时，RMW显著减小，通常减小到几十公里。这使得风的特征可以作为可能过渡到成熟阶段的一个指标。我们还发现，与“medicanes”成熟期相关的最大持续风大多超过所有地中海气旋观测值的第95个百分位数，尽管它们明显弱于tc。此外，如果热带转变发生，热核由一个深度对流区域提供燃料，该区域可能位于旋转中心附近，距离比RMW短。然而，由于可能缺乏暖核，仅存在几乎对称的风环流不足以表明成熟阶段的发生。反之，温暖的地核可能在没有特征的近对称风环流的情况下出现。

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引用次数: 0

High-precision forecasting of 1 km resolution PWV and ZTD over China based on the Pangu-Weather system 基于盘古天气系统的中国1公里分辨率PWV和ZTD高精度预报

IF 4.4 2区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Atmospheric Research

Pub Date : 2026-04-15 Epub Date: 2026-01-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108771

Zhihao Wang , Hongzhou Chai , Yuhao Ye , Min Wang , Peng Chen

As key tropospheric parameters, zenith total delay (ZTD) and precipitable water vapor (PWV) serve as core data supports for precise positioning of the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), meteorological monitoring, and disaster early warning. However, existing observation and estimation methods generally suffer from technical bottlenecks, including insufficient spatiotemporal resolution, poor real-time performance, and data blind spots. To address this problem, this study proposes a novel retrieval method based on the Pangu-Weather system, aiming to achieve 7-day high-precision real-time forecasting of PWV and ZTD with 1 km resolution over the China. Using ERA5 reanalysis data as the initial field, the Pangu-Weather system is utilized to forecast meteorological parameters for the next 7 days, and preliminary PWV and ZTD products (Pangu-PWV, Pangu-ZTD) are obtained through integral calculation. Subsequently, based on GNSS data, a multilayer perceptron (MLP) is employed to establish the mapping relationship between latitude, longitude, digital elevation model (DEM), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), time, and tropospheric parameters. The Pangu products are calibrated to the ground height, generating high-precision PWV and ZTD products with 1 km resolution (MLP-PWV, MLP-ZTD). Accuracy verification results indicate that the RMSE between MLP-PWV and GNSS-PWV is 3.63 mm, and the R² is 0.95. For MLP-ZTD and GNSS-ZTD, the RMSE is 26.55 mm and the R² is 0.99, both demonstrating excellent spatiotemporal consistency. Application analysis using typhoon Doksuri in 2023 as a case study shows that MLP-PWV can accurately depict the spatial distribution of PWV during hazardous weather processes, overcoming the limitation that Pangu-PWV is unable to reliably calculate PWV above the Earth's surface. This study provides reliable data support for real-time monitoring of tropospheric parameters with high spatiotemporal resolution.

天顶总延迟（ZTD）和可降水量（PWV）作为对流层的关键参数，是全球卫星导航系统（GNSS）精确定位、气象监测和灾害预警的核心数据支撑。然而，现有的观测和估算方法普遍存在时空分辨率不足、实时性差、数据盲点等技术瓶颈。针对这一问题，本研究提出了一种基于盘古气象系统的新型检索方法，旨在实现中国上空1 km分辨率的PWV和ZTD的7 d高精度实时预报。以ERA5再分析资料为初始场，利用盘古天气系统预报未来7 d的气象参数，通过积分计算得到盘古PWV和ZTD的初步产品（盘古PWV、盘古ZTD）。随后，基于GNSS数据，利用多层感知器（MLP）建立经纬度、数字高程模型（DEM）、归一化植被指数（NDVI）、时间和对流层参数之间的映射关系。盘古产品经地面高度标定，生成1公里分辨率的高精度PWV和ZTD产品（MLP-PWV, MLP-ZTD）。精度验证结果表明，MLP-PWV与GNSS-PWV的RMSE为3.63 mm， R2为0.95。MLP-ZTD和GNSS-ZTD的均方根误差为26.55 mm， R2为0.99，均具有较好的时空一致性。以2023年台风“Doksuri”为例进行的应用分析表明，MLP-PWV能够准确描述危险天气过程中PWV的空间分布，克服了Pangu-PWV无法可靠计算地表以上PWV的局限性。该研究为高时空分辨率对流层参数的实时监测提供了可靠的数据支持。

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